NoWorries
Topic Author
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Joined: Fri Oct 27, 2006 2:55 am

How Far Is Airbus And Boeing Production Sold Out?

Thu Feb 08, 2007 12:52 am

In the last two years, A and B have had combined sales of roughly 4000 frames! Incredible! My question is, for each model that A and B offer, if an airline were to order an airplane today, how long would they have to wait for delivery. I'm guessing the wait is shortest for a 767 or an A340 -- at least a few years for a 737 or an A320, and the longest for a 787 or A350XWB.
 
Bongodog1964
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RE: How Far Is Airbus And Boeing Production Sold Out?

Thu Feb 08, 2007 1:05 am

A lot depends on the delivery schedule required by the customers. Though the overall order backlog may be substantial, this doesn't automatically translate into a full orderbook for many years.

One example of this is Ryanair. They order 737-800's in vast quantities but only take delivery of 3 or 4 per month. If they had say 120 on order, this would equate to 40/year for three years.

Undoubtedly the orderbook for both A & B is full for the immediate future, but as you look further forward you would start to see slots for the odd one or two planes per month appear, building up to a totally clear schedule at a distant point in the future.

If a customer is looking to place a large order, I'm sure either manufacturer would be able to offer initial deliveries within 3 years or so

One example of this is where BA's future requirements for its long haul fleet, have a requirement for a bridging order for 10 planes for earlier delivery than the bulk of the order.
 
brendows
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RE: How Far Is Airbus And Boeing Production Sold Out?

Thu Feb 08, 2007 2:54 am

Quoting NoWorries (Thread starter):
My question is, for each model that A and B offer, if an airline were to order an airplane today, how long would they have to wait for delivery.

These numbers are just [b]estimates,[b] based on the number of orders and current (and announced) production rates, and you should take them with a pinch of salt:
A32X: Early - Mid 2009
A330/A340: Mid - Late 2008
A350: Early 2014? (unless EIS is pushed out to 2014)
A380: Mid - Late 2012
B737: Early - Mid 2009
B747: Mid 2010
B767: Late 2008
B777: Mid - Late 2008
B787: Late 2012 - Mid 2013

It's difficult to determine these things for certain since there may be reserved slots, for example options, or that there are orders that are not announced yet.

Quoting NoWorries (Thread starter):
I'm guessing the wait is shortest for a 767 or an A340

The A340 comes of the same production line as the A330, so you have to wait for an A340 just as long as you have to wait for an A330.
When it comes to the 767: some parts can require more than a year of manufacturing, that's why you can't get a newly ordered 767 this fall.
If the production rate for an aircraft is increased, say next month, would the first parts for those extra aircraft probably have been in production for about a year already, if not more.
 
sebring
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RE: How Far Is Airbus And Boeing Production Sold Out?

Thu Feb 08, 2007 2:58 am

Quoting Brendows (Reply 2):

The A340 comes of the same production line as the A330, so you have to wait for an A340 just as long as you have to wait for an A330.
When it comes to the 767: some parts can require more than a year of manufacturing, that's why you can't get a newly ordered 767 this fall.
If the production rate for an aircraft is increased, say next month, would the first parts for those extra aircraft probably have been in production for about a year already, if not more.

There are reserved slots for optioned aircraft. I asked a senior AC person last year whether the airline had ordered enough "firm" 787s, and he said AC has options linked to specific delivery positions/dates, so it can and likely will firm up some of those before it receives its first 787 in 2010.
 
NoWorries
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RE: How Far Is Airbus And Boeing Production Sold Out?

Fri Feb 09, 2007 4:21 am

Quoting Brendows (Reply 2):
These numbers are just [b]estimates,[b] based on the number of orders and current (and announced) production rates, and you should take them with a pinch of salt:

Thanks! -- pretty good estimates -- Scott Carson in this interview confirmed that 787 is sold out through 2012 and the 747 is sold out through 2010. Though, he said that 767 was also sold out through 2012 as well.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...CB1-85FC-4EED-92B0-4E34FC43831A%7D