Glom
Topic Author
Posts: 2051
Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:38 am

Is Airbus Going To Do Better This Year?

Thu Feb 08, 2007 3:26 am

In regards to widebodies (there's no faulting their narrowbody performance), is Airbus's prospects looking up this year. They already seem to be hitting the ground running.
 
eatmybologna
Posts: 375
Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2005 3:21 am

RE: Is Airbus Going To Do Better This Year?

Thu Feb 08, 2007 3:43 am

Yes,

Their A380 issues will soon be resolved and current customers will soon receive planes and possibly fulfill their options.

A350XWB will sell like hot cakes once the details are established. I predict 250 by the end of their fiscal year.

Announcement of A320E will create a lot of interest as well.

Just my .02 Euros.

E-M-B
Isn't knowledge more than just the acquisition of information? Shouldn't the acquired information be correct?
 
chiad
Posts: 986
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 4:24 pm

RE: Is Airbus Going To Do Better This Year?

Thu Feb 08, 2007 4:52 am

It always puzzles me when people ask a question in this manner.
Airbus sold 151 Widebodies last year (and delivered 95).
That's one heck of a result.

Airbus had at the end of 2006 outstanding orders for 567 widebodies (up from 511 one year before).

But if you didn't refer to 2006 as a bad year (in terms of sales), just that 2007 will be better, then my answer will be YES (my belief).
2007 will be even better than 2006.
 
hb88
Posts: 760
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2005 1:25 am

RE: Is Airbus Going To Do Better This Year?

Thu Feb 08, 2007 4:56 am

Yes. Airbus will continue to do extremely well on orders and deliveries - as it has done in 2006. However, profitability will take some time to recover from the USD$/euro exchange rate and the A380 delays.

I wouldn't (as some are prone to do on a.net) be dancing on the grave of Airbus just yet.  Smile
 
EI321
Posts: 4788
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:43 pm

RE: Is Airbus Going To Do Better This Year?

Thu Feb 08, 2007 5:01 am

Its hard to see how airbus could not have a better year than last year.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23074
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Is Airbus Going To Do Better This Year?

Thu Feb 08, 2007 5:07 am

Quoting Glom (Thread starter):
In regards to widebodies (there's no faulting their narrowbody performance), (are) Airbus's prospects looking up this year? They already seem to be hitting the ground running.

Well the A330 program (passenger and freighter) are doing well and even the A340 program is seeing some life.

I think 2007 could be a somewhat "slow" year for the A380 and A350. I say this for the A380 because only MSN003 appears to be wired properly, but it should help Airbus move forward on the rest. So I believe the A388 could see a new customer, but it is more likely to see add-on orders from existing customers as compensation issues are settled.

And I say it for the A350 because it is still in the midst of being defined. However, airlines who were A350 customers and still want the A350XWB will most likely re-affirm their orders this year as compensation issues are settled, as well.

Where Airbus should enjoy a really good widebody year is 2008. The A388 will hopefully be moving into customer's hands and receiving positive feedback from those customers. And the A350XWB's baseline design and performance will be defined so airlines will be comfortable comparing it to the 787, which will be in revenue service at that time.
 
Glom
Topic Author
Posts: 2051
Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:38 am

RE: Is Airbus Going To Do Better This Year?

Thu Feb 08, 2007 6:03 am

When I say a better year, I mean mostly in comparison to Boeing, because judging performance is a relative thing because the industry as a whole has variable performance.

So the big question is will Airbus getter a larger widebody marketshare?
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23074
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Is Airbus Going To Do Better This Year?

Thu Feb 08, 2007 6:24 am

Quoting Glom (Reply 6):
So the big question is will Airbus getter a larger widebody marketshare?

It should improve against Boeing in 2007 versus 2006, but Boeing should still hold a strong supermajority in numbers and value.

The 787 will take to the skies this year and if her flight tests perform as well as or better then expected, sales should strengthen even more. Also, the 787-10 should receive her formal industrial launch and be offered for sale. Taken together, a number of large fence-sitters like EK and QR could be convinced now is the time to order the 787 in double-digit quantities and those holding large options (SQ and QF) may convert some or all of them.

LH may have finally broken the dam holding back 748I orders, and I expect the 748F will continue to record orders.

777 sales should remain strong, as well and even the 767 is enjoying somewhat of a momentary renaissance.
 
manni
Posts: 4049
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2001 1:48 am

RE: Is Airbus Going To Do Better This Year?

Thu Feb 08, 2007 11:36 am

Quoting Glom (Reply 6):
So the big question is will Airbus getter a larger widebody marketshare?

Yes, I have no doubt they will. Widebody sales for Airbus could be anywhere between 300 and 400 aircraft in 2007, with 100 to 150 for the succesfull A330/A330F (some for the beautiful A340) and the remaining for the A350/A380.

If everything goes well, the 787 will go in commercial service 16 months from now. Boeing recorded only 2 sales for the 777 (to an existing customer) in the year previous to her first commercial flight. The 787 will likely do better then that, but I wouldn't exclude a slowdown...
SUPPORT THE LEBANESE CIVILIANS
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13760
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: Is Airbus Going To Do Better This Year?

Thu Feb 08, 2007 11:52 am

Quoting Eatmybologna (Reply 1):
A350XWB will sell like hot cakes once the details are established. I predict 250 by the end of their fiscal year.

250 new sales or 250 including reaffirming some of the old orders? If the former, I highly, highly, highly doubt Airbus will firm up 300+ A350X orders in one year, considering they are already 1/10th of the way into 2007 and have firmed up zero. It would be a record breaking sales performance to say the least.

I think it's funny how people are expecting that since the market was so strong in the last 2 years, it will be just as strong in 2007. 2006 was a "down year" for Airbus and yet they sold the second most planes they ever have. Why are people expecting them to sell 500-600 narrow and now 300-400 widebody again? I don't expect that of Airbus nor Boeing. 600 total frames for each company would still be a fantastic year.

Airbus had a fantastic year in 2006, and I think they'd be happy with the same numbers, though maybe a larger percentage of them as widebodies. And I can't expect Boeing to have anywhere near 1000 orders this year, considering last year they warned not to expect it. Last year surprised even Boeing, but repeating it will be impossible.

The only year Boeing or Airbus will ever sell 1000 planes again is when each company launches their narrowbody replacement models. Until that time, 500-600 a year should be considered great sales years...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
atmx2000
Posts: 4301
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:24 pm

RE: Is Airbus Going To Do Better This Year?

Thu Feb 08, 2007 12:02 pm

Quoting Eatmybologna (Reply 1):

A350XWB will sell like hot cakes once the details are established. I predict 250 by the end of their fiscal year.



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 9):
250 new sales or 250 including reaffirming some of the old orders? If the former, I highly, highly, highly doubt Airbus will firm up 300+ A350X orders in one year, considering they are already 1/10th of the way into 2007 and have firmed up zero. It would be a record breaking sales performance to say the least.

Moreover, few airlines are going to be in a hurry to firm orders for an aircraft more than 6.5 years away. They know they will be able to pit Boeing and Airbus against each other for the evolving A359 and 787-10 proposals, and that both will be available roughly at the same time. Plus with the 787 test program starting later this year, airlines will have more hard data for their decisions.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13760
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: Is Airbus Going To Do Better This Year?

Thu Feb 08, 2007 12:57 pm

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 10):
Moreover, few airlines are going to be in a hurry to firm orders for an aircraft more than 6.5 years away.

I was thinking that after I posted. There is no hurry to book 300+ A350X when the first delivery won't be until 2013 for the first model, just as there is no current hurry to book 787s that aren't available until 2013. You'll see one or two big orders for the 787-10 when it's launched, but other than that, neither plane is going to get this huge rush of orders. Orders will come when the current airlines who are looking for future fleet decisions make their decisions. BA is only making a FIRST ROUND decision, LH seems to be in no hurry, AA, UA and DL are not likely to make that choice in 2007, etc.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
manni
Posts: 4049
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2001 1:48 am

RE: Is Airbus Going To Do Better This Year?

Thu Feb 08, 2007 1:12 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 9):
500-600 a year should be considered great sales years...

Sufficient but not great sales, considering both manufacturers plan to produce more then 500 aircraft a year from 2008 and up...
SUPPORT THE LEBANESE CIVILIANS
 
chiad
Posts: 986
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 4:24 pm

RE: Is Airbus Going To Do Better This Year?

Thu Feb 08, 2007 4:48 pm

Quoting Glom (Reply 6):
When I say a better year, I mean mostly in comparison to Boeing, because judging performance is a relative thing because the industry as a whole has variable performance.

I know that.
But I think it's a "wrong" way to measure one's success.
However ... that's just me.
 
User avatar
N328KF
Posts: 5810
Joined: Tue May 25, 2004 3:50 am

RE: Is Airbus Going To Do Better This Year?

Thu Feb 08, 2007 11:58 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 8):
Yes, I have no doubt they will. Widebody sales for Airbus could be anywhere between 300 and 400 aircraft in 2007, with 100 to 150 for the succesfull A330/A330F (some for the beautiful A340) and the remaining for the A350/A380.

This statement tells more about you than you might care to admit. In any event before making such reaching statements, it would help to state how you came to arrive at your numbers. Boeing sold 454 widebodies in 2005 and 319 widebodies in 2006, with a much stronger product line. How do you expect Airbus to achieve such stratospheric sales figures in their current state, with only one strong widebody product, some weak widebody products, and the last one having an EIS 6-7 years in the future? Or did you just pull those numbers out of your rear?

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 9):

The only year Boeing or Airbus will ever sell 1000 planes again is when each company launches their narrowbody replacement models. Until that time, 500-600 a year should be considered great sales years...

Well, on top of that, I expect many of the initial Y1 orders to be conversions from 737 orders. Look at WN, AA, DL, FR, etc. They're sitting on a bazillion 737 orders and options. At that point, I expect many of them to convert their 737 orders to Y1; that will result in no net gain in those specific cases.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
manni
Posts: 4049
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2001 1:48 am

RE: Is Airbus Going To Do Better This Year?

Fri Feb 09, 2007 12:17 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 14):
Or did you just pull those numbers out of your rear?

I was wondering should I or should I not serve you with an answer after you finished your question with that sentence. I figured that statement tells more about you then me, so.. I'll do you the favor.  snooty 

A330/330F/340 Airbus signed up 40 commitments already for the A330F, additionally it has still 8 commitments for Transaero. Many more are in the pipeline, TG is one of them. With 119 sold last year without the A330F, 100 to 150 is indeed a very realistic number. Add a few, currently already 3, A340s to the mix aswell.

A350 That's an easy one. Mr. Leahy himself predicted 200XWB sales, with more then 100 commitments (excludes the firmed up former version of the A350) on the books and a few big sales campaign coming up, 150 to 200 firmed up and new orders are not unlikely.

A380 Again did I take Mr. Leahy's expectations in consideration. Atleast 20.

 yes  300 to 400 aircraft, without exaggerating.  Wink
SUPPORT THE LEBANESE CIVILIANS