unitedMSY
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MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Thu Feb 08, 2007 4:36 pm

Checked the loads for the new DL MDW-LGA service starting February 15th through the 20th, there are less than 15 people traveling on 95% of the flights, this is much worse than the ORD-LGA service when it started. I have a feeling this route is doomed from the beginning, and those DL 170's will likely end up somewhere else. Poor market planning  Sad
 
boswashsprstar
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Thu Feb 08, 2007 5:13 pm

How much worse than ORD is this? The ORD service never exactly got up to a brisk clip, either.

But still--this was always going to be a hard market for DL. If Delta can build up to the point that it's actually a competitor on par with AA in New York O&D business traffic, then once that build-up was complete, the ORD or MDW service might have worked. But today, DL is entirely outgunned in Chicago, and is not big enough in New York to support a service like this. They either need to be willing to suffer some losses on this route while they wait (possibly in vain) for customer loyalty to build in the New York market, or they need to call it off and try again in a few years.
 
rw717
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Thu Feb 08, 2007 5:55 pm

Not to mention B6 just moved into the hood!
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AlexPorter
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Thu Feb 08, 2007 6:28 pm

If DL wants this route to work, they need to just add a couple flights in the afternoon to JFK for international connections - the O&D isn't there against established carriers like CO and AA, and top-notch carriers like B6. So besides getting international connections through JFK, this won't work.
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panamair
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Thu Feb 08, 2007 6:50 pm

Quoting AlexPorter (Reply 3):
If DL wants this route to work, they need to just add a couple flights in the afternoon to JFK for international connections - the O&D isn't there against established carriers like CO and AA, and top-notch carriers like B6. So besides getting international connections through JFK, this won't work.

The reason the LGA-Chicago flights have moved to MDW is because they needed the ORD slots for increased JFK-ORD flights. When LGA-MDW starts, JFK-ORD will get bumped up from one daily flight currently to five daily.
 
UAL777UK
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Thu Feb 08, 2007 8:50 pm

Quoting RW717 (Reply 2):
Not to mention B6 just moved into the hood!

Ain't dat der twuth!

DL will continue to hurt on this route IMHO.
 
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deltadawg
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Thu Feb 08, 2007 10:41 pm

Out of curiosity, anyone know what B6's loads look like on their ORD-JFK as well as the LGB run?

I generally believe that DL has done a good job during the BK of adding new routes and utilizing a/c on productive routes. However, MDW is the one glaring stain in that shining star.

DL dropped the mainline MD-80's and 738's from MDW almost two years ago. They moved gates many many times and for about a year only had CRJ service into MDW, even from ATL. I fly into Chicago 2-3 times per month and have always found MDW more convenient than ORD. However, the undecisive commitment that DL has at MDW has left me and other FF dismayed and upset at the level of service at MDW. Now, when I fly into MDW I make sure I am on the E70's and still avoid the CRJ's. But, I have flown FL several times just because of that undecisive nature of DL at MDW. So, while I have not flown the MDW-LGA it does not surprise me that the loads are very light. DL will have to stick this one out and show a commitment to the customers that they are going to stick around on this route, that is the only way they will turn this route around.

Just my .02
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B757capt
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Thu Feb 08, 2007 11:23 pm

Just wait for ATA to cancel one then DL came make some rule 120 revenue.
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quickmover
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Thu Feb 08, 2007 11:34 pm

Is MDW-BOS working out any better than MDW-LGA?
thanks
 
LHUSA
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Fri Feb 09, 2007 1:20 am

Quoting DeltaDAWG (Reply 6):
Out of curiosity, anyone know what B6's loads look like on their ORD-JFK

A friend of mine flew ORD-JFK a couple of weeks ago and both flights were 100% full. She said that the flights were mostly filled with young people - something I definitely never experienced on my countless LGA-ORD flights on UA. B6 did an outstanding job with marketing in Chicago. There's a huge buzz about their service.
 
incitatus
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Fri Feb 09, 2007 4:28 am

Quoting Panamair (Reply 4):
The reason the LGA-Chicago flights have moved to MDW is because they needed the ORD slots for increased JFK-ORD flights. When LGA-MDW starts, JFK-ORD will get bumped up from one daily flight currently to five daily.

There is only one reason. It was not making money! If the flights were profitable Delta would not have touched them. I'm gonna start a thread "Top 10 reasons why airlines discontinue routes". The most frequent excuse is "lack of aircraft", though the slot story seems to come up often too.
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Evan767
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Fri Feb 09, 2007 4:46 am

Quoting UnitedMSY (Thread starter):
there are less than 15 people traveling on 95% of the flights

Isn't this private information? Maybe if you would say the loads are pretty low, you'd be a bit safer.
The proper term is "on final" not "on finals" bud...
 
floridaflyboy
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Fri Feb 09, 2007 5:02 am

Quoting Evan767 (Reply 11):
Isn't this private information? Maybe if you would say the loads are pretty low, you'd be a bit safer.

Loads are not really a big deal to be kept private. If you call a lot of airline reservation lines, they can tell anyone over the phone what loads are like on a particular flight. For example, when I call to non-rev, I always ask for the loads, and they just tell me.
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Evan767
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Fri Feb 09, 2007 7:29 am

Quoting Floridaflyboy (Reply 12):
when I call to non-rev, I always ask for the loads, and they just tell me.

That is different though. That's private information. This was posted on the public internet where any old airline (B6, FL, UA, AA) would have access to this information.
The proper term is "on final" not "on finals" bud...
 
wjcandee
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Fri Feb 09, 2007 5:57 pm

Quoting Evan767 (Reply 13):
That is different though. That's private information. This was posted on the public internet where any old airline (B6, FL, UA, AA) would have access to this information.

Future loads are widely-determinable by a variety of sources, albeit ones in the "industry". If an airline analyst at a brokerage house wanted to make enough phone calls to determine loads, he could do so. So, on the one hand, it's private, on the other hand, it is to some extent publicly-available. Day to day immediate loads (i.e. present loads) are determinable by having someone stand at the gate with a clicker, which airlines have been known to do when trying to monitor their competitors.

Past loads, of course, are reported regularly by airline and city pair by the government. So, one can get a pretty good feel for loads in past periods by monitoring public information.

I'd make one point about these upcoming flights: they are aimed at business travellers, who often make reservations in the few days leading up to the flight. You won't really know how the flights are doing until you get a little closer to departure. I agree, however, that the numbers seem light.

LGA-MDW has always been a strong route for TZ, year-in-and-year-out, and with the Southwest code share, my personal (albeit limited) observations seem to confirm that it is even stronger today. Most Chicagoans probably don't immediately think "Delta" when looking to fly to New York. With the Internet and Orbitz, of course, learning about availability becomes easier, but still...

Tomorrow, for example, DL's loads LGA-ORD seem positively anemic, while ATA's are pretty darn good. With everyone at the same $159 one-way fare, that has to hurt for DL.
 
jacobin777
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Fri Feb 09, 2007 10:33 pm

Quoting BosWashSprStar (Reply 1):
If Delta can build up to the point that it's actually a competitor on par with AA in New York O&D business traffic,

That's a mighty big if you got there....

Quoting BosWashSprStar (Reply 1):
, and is not big enough in New York to support a service like this.

...sure DL is large enough.... DL is only 2nd to AA in total pax flown out of LGA (only by 3%) and 3rd to only B6 and AA (about 2% points less than AA)....

Quoting B757capt (Reply 7):
Just wait for ATA to cancel one then DL came make some rule 120 revenue.

Why are they going to cancel? TZ has been servicing that route for many years...and seem to be doing fine..
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TWA1985
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Fri Feb 09, 2007 10:57 pm

This makes no sense to me. Delta opened their Delta Flight Center at O'Hare in 1984 and had a small hub in Chicago. So how can they pretty much abandon Chicago in the early 90's (With exception to flight to their main hubs), and then expect to rebuild service 15 years later?

Of course the customer loyalty has vanished.

You could have talked to someone in Chicago 20 years ago and they would have given Delta nothing but praise.

But today that is another story.

Anyone agree with me?

TWA1985

[Edited 2007-02-09 15:15:06]
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RL757PVD
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Fri Feb 09, 2007 11:10 pm

Apparently its not doomed....service is being added!

http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/070209/113455.html
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HPAEAA
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Fri Feb 09, 2007 11:21 pm

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 17):
Apparently its not doomed....service is being added!

wow, bi hourly service to LGA.. maybe yeilds are just that good!
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CcrlR
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Fri Feb 09, 2007 11:33 pm

Quoting HPAEAA (Reply 18):
wow, bi hourly service to LGA.. maybe yeilds are just that good!

Mabye they are just going for the cheesecake! I would ride just to have some from 35,000 feet in a ERJ170.
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wjcandee
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Sat Feb 10, 2007 1:27 am

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 17):
Apparently its not doomed....service is being added!

Are you sure? It seems like this is basically what they've been talking about above: shift ORD-LGA flights on Shuttle America to make them MDW-LGA, then add Comair flights ORD-JFK.

People also have said that Shuttle America's reliability has been atrocious. Maybe this has something to do with the poor loads on the LGA-ORD service.
 
S5FA170
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Sat Feb 10, 2007 1:54 am

Quoting Wjcandee (Reply 20):
People also have said that Shuttle America's reliability has been atrocious. Maybe this has something to do with the poor loads on the LGA-ORD service.

This statement is incorrect. For the month of January, Shuttle America was the #2 service provider in the Delta Connection family. This encompasses ontime performance and completion factors, among other things. The number 1 DCI carrier was Chautauqua Airlines. I would hardly call that "atrocious".

For the months prior to January CHQ and Shuttle were both in the top DCI carriers, and Shuttle has always maintained a completion factor over 98% and on-time performance has been good, as well.
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COEI2007
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Sat Feb 10, 2007 1:57 am

How many flights per day are DL running LGA-MDW??? I was surprised by this route! CO only operates 3 daily 737 to MDW from EWR, and they have a sizeable hub there!
 
Cubsrule
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Sat Feb 10, 2007 4:18 am

Quoting Wjcandee (Reply 20):
People also have said that Shuttle America's reliability has been atrocious.

In my experience (and S5FA, feel free to tell me if this is untrue), the S5 operation for DL at ORD has suffered from a lot of delays due to inbound crews being late arriving on UA flights. S5 also tends to use ORD as a point at which they can swap birds to and from IND (for m/x I guess). I think S5's reliability at ORD, at least on the DL side, is worse than their reliability for DCI as a whole.
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S5FA170
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Sat Feb 10, 2007 4:49 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 23):
In my experience (and S5FA, feel free to tell me if this is untrue), the S5 operation for DL at ORD has suffered from a lot of delays due to inbound crews being late arriving on UA flights. S5 also tends to use ORD as a point at which they can swap birds to and from IND (for m/x I guess). I think S5's reliability at ORD, at least on the DL side, is worse than their reliability for DCI as a whole.

The only time a Delta flight would be delayed for an inbound UA crew is if the crew-member is on reserve.

Our pairings are built so that one trip is exlusively Delta or United. The only time you will see line-holders perform both UA and DL flying on one trip is during weather disruptions when crews start getting rescheduled. For example, I was supposed to work a United four-day trip over Christmas that flew in and out of Denver. The first two days of that trip, I was rescheduled to perform DL flying because DEN was shutdown.

Also, the DL 170s would have come in from LGA exclusively as their is no other ORD flying for Delta on the -170. Unless it was a bluetail and hopped on an ORD-IND turn, that plane would have come in from LGA and gone back to LGA. Usually the DL planes are away from a Maintenance base (CMH/IND) for two or three days, as far as I can tell.
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Cubsrule
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Sat Feb 10, 2007 5:05 am

Quoting S5FA170 (Reply 24):
The only time a Delta flight would be delayed for an inbound UA crew is if the crew-member is on reserve.

That's interesting. I guess I've just had s**tty luck then. Well, thanks for telling me I was wrong.
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S5FA170
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Sat Feb 10, 2007 5:11 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 25):
That's interesting. I guess I've just had s**tty luck then. Well, thanks for telling me I was wrong.

Oh, I didn't mean it like that! I'm just not sure how other regional airlines schedule their crews? But at Shuttle/Chautauqua, one pairing is built for one specific codeshare partner. So lineholders should, in a perfect world, not have to switch between the two on a trip.

However, if you got stuck waiting on a flight leaving LGA - it is quite possible you were waiting on your reserve crew's deadhead flight from ORD to show up (as ORD is a crew base for Shuttle America), which would be a United flight.
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Cubsrule
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Sat Feb 10, 2007 5:29 am

No worries. Thanks for letting me know how you guys do things (I'm just about to book an S5 MDW-ATL flight...)
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jetbluefan1
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Sat Feb 10, 2007 6:28 am

Quoting DeltaDAWG (Reply 6):
Out of curiosity, anyone know what B6's loads look like on their ORD-JFK as well as the LGB run?

Amazing loads - especially for a new multi-hub city in January. JetBlue did tons of marketing for these two routes, and the loads are simply outstanding. Yields are also decent; flights aren't being discounted nearly as much as some other routes.

JetBluefan1
 
incitatus
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Sat Feb 10, 2007 7:08 am

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 28):
Amazing loads - especially for a new multi-hub city in January. JetBlue did tons of marketing for these two routes, and the loads are simply outstanding. Yields are also decent;

Lots of departures available next week both ways for $59 each way. Data does not corroborate the "amazing" qualifier for loads and yield. Positively great deals but can it last?
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jetbluefan1
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Sat Feb 10, 2007 1:59 pm

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 29):
Lots of departures available next week both ways for $59 each way. Data does not corroborate the "amazing" qualifier for loads and yield. Positively great deals but can it last?

$59 on Tuesdays and Wednesdays - the slowest days of the week. Obviously those days do not see the amazing load factors that Thursday, Friday and Sunday see. I'm not saying that the loads are great every day, but in general they're very good - especially for a new route.

JetBluefan1
 
HPAEAA
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Sat Feb 10, 2007 2:05 pm

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 29):
Positively great deals but can it last?

well, the might just be trying to hold the 3 slots that DFW LGA had when DL moved it to DFW JFK... just a thought... I doubt it will work.. the market is pretty saturated..
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Cubsrule
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Sun Feb 11, 2007 12:42 am

Going back to the previous comments about S5's reliability on the ORD-LGA route, it's also important to remember that the route arguably connects two of the world's most congested and delay-prone airports. DL would have problems running the route on time consistently, OH would have problems, EV would have problems, and there's no reason to think that S5 would be any different. It's a rare day that neither ORD nor LGA has some sort of flow control program.
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RedTailDTW
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Sun Feb 11, 2007 3:05 am

Quoting LHUSA (Reply 9):
A friend of mine flew ORD-JFK a couple of weeks ago and both flights were 100% full. She said that the flights were mostly filled with young people - something I definitely never experienced on my countless LGA-ORD flights on UA. B6 did an outstanding job with marketing in Chicago. There's a huge buzz about their service.

I wonder which airline they are stealing traffic from...

Mason
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AASuper80
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Sun Feb 11, 2007 4:31 am

Speaking of Delta's loads, has anyone noticed the SFO-JFK flights being extemely light? I am on one next week and the flight is still empty. I was wondering if this route was making any money?
 
FlyDeltaJets87
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Sun Feb 11, 2007 4:54 am

Quoting Evan767 (Reply 11):
Isn't this private information? Maybe if you would say the loads are pretty low, you'd be a bit safer.



Quoting Floridaflyboy (Reply 12):
Loads are not really a big deal to be kept private. If you call a lot of airline reservation lines, they can tell anyone over the phone what loads are like on a particular flight. For example, when I call to non-rev, I always ask for the loads, and they just tell me.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but you can determine the load factor just by looking at the seat map on an airline's website when making a reservation, so how is the load factor a private matter?
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RedTailDTW
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Sun Feb 11, 2007 9:48 am

Quoting HPAEAA (Reply 31):
well, the might just be trying to hold the 3 slots that DFW LGA had when DL moved it to DFW JFK... just a thought... I doubt it will work.. the market is pretty saturated..

That's a possibility...
Airlines Flown: AA, CO, HP, MQ, NW, RP, UA, US, WN, YX / Aircraft Flown: 737-200/300/700/800, 757-200/300, 777-200, A319/A320/A321, DC-9-30/50, DC-10-40, ERJ 140/145, E170, MD80/83/90
 
COEI2007
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RE: MDW-LGA DL Likely Doomed

Mon Feb 12, 2007 2:30 am

Quoting FlyDeltaJets87 (Reply 35):
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but you can determine the load factor just by looking at the seat map on an airline's website when making a reservation, so how is the load factor a private matter?

That wont indicate the load factor. That will show you how many people have assigned seaqts on that particular flight. Many people will be booked on the flight, but wont show up on the airlines seat map, as they will get their seat assignement at check-in.