quickmover
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Airtran/Southwest/Midwest

Sat Feb 10, 2007 3:15 am

I was just thinking about FL's dilema in trying to buy Midwest and Midwest's belief they can grow with their present model.

What if Southwest merged with Airtran. Southwest would immediately pick up ATL and about 40 737-700s with 60 more on the way. Southwest would have to temporarily operate 80+ 717s, but could make a deal with Midwest to take the 717s as the 60 Airtran 737-700s are delivered.

YX goes on with their business plan
WN goes on with theirs.
In about 5 years WN is back to an all 737 fleet and Midwest doesn't have to worry about a operating a different fleet type.
 
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TVNWZ
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RE: Airtran/Southwest/Midwest

Sat Feb 10, 2007 3:19 am

One problem: Midwest will never be big enough to digest 80+ 717's. They only have 25 now.
 
graphic
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RE: Airtran/Southwest/Midwest

Sat Feb 10, 2007 3:20 am

And an already near-capacity Southwest finds itself with 100 aircraft with no homes, forcing bankruptcy.

...not gonna happen.
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deltadawg
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RE: Airtran/Southwest/Midwest

Sat Feb 10, 2007 3:24 am

FL is not in the mode to be bought either. Joe Leonard has plans of his own. If the YX doesn't come through I would not rule out a FL/F9 marriage. Damn the fleet commonality and just look at the hubs and complimentary service (one east coast mainly and the other west coast and Mexico mainly). The only attraction to WN would be ATL. They have hundreds of thousands of 737's on order so I don't believe that would be adriving force to buyout FL, the only real reason I could see is to get into ATL.
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OzarkD9S
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RE: Airtran/Southwest/Midwest

Sat Feb 10, 2007 4:17 am

Quoting DeltaDAWG (Reply 3):


the only real reason I could see is to get into ATL.

But WN wouldn't operate an FL-style hub there. And so many markets FL operates would not fit the WN service patterns.

If WN wanted to get into ATL there are infinitely cheaper ways to do so.
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srbmod
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RE: Airtran/Southwest/Midwest

Sat Feb 10, 2007 7:29 am

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 4):

If WN wanted to get into ATL there are infinitely cheaper ways to do so.

Who would have thought that WN would ever start PHL, IAD, and PIT service? It's not entirely out of the realm of possibilities that WN could eventually serve ATL.

The biggest obstacle to Southwest entering ATL is gates. Unless WN wants to operate out of E or perhaps convert the old NW hangar into a terminal, there really isn't any gates to be had @ ATL. The bulk of the common use gates on D South pretty much can be considered to be AirTran's gates since they use the gates the most.

Surprisingly, even with AirTran, there are folks in Atlanta who still drive to BHM to fly on Southwest.

Here's my prediction in regards to WN and Atlanta. Athens-Ben Epps Airport (AHN). They have plans to make it possible for 737-sized a/c to safely operate out of the airport (Mainly for UGA football charters) and also have plans to build a new terminal building.
 
ScottB
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RE: Airtran/Southwest/Midwest

Sat Feb 10, 2007 11:26 am

Quoting Graphic (Reply 2):
And an already near-capacity Southwest finds itself with 100 aircraft with no homes, forcing bankruptcy.

Actually, Southwest has stated on several occasions that they are looking to purchase additional -700's from the used market if they're in good condition and priced right. That is on top of the 37 -700's they expect to take new from Boeing in 2007.

The real issue is that Southwest has no use for 87 717's. They could probably put 40 more 73G's into their system over about 2 years, if they could handle the staffing needed. They're also going to start retiring the oldest -300's in 2008, so they're going to need more aircraft if they want to maintain their growth rate.

Midwest really couldn't absorb that much capacity without changing their business model. Their particular niche probably would fail in ATL when placed against stiff competition from Delta. Having only 717's would also leave YX unable to serve longer-haul markets like the West Coast.
 
COERJ145
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RE: Airtran/Southwest/Midwest

Sat Feb 10, 2007 11:59 am

Quoting Quickmover (Thread starter):
Southwest would immediately pick up ATL and about 40 737-700s with 60 more on the way. Southwest would have to temporarily operate 80+ 717s, but could make a deal with Midwest to take the 717s as the 60 Airtran 737-700s are delivered.

Or YX takes 20ish 73Gs and 25 more 717s while WN replaces their 25 735s with 25-30 717s. The rest(35-40) would be split between HA, G4, SY and TZ.
 
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knope2001
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RE: Airtran/Southwest/Midwest

Sat Feb 10, 2007 3:54 pm

Quoting DeltaDAWG (Reply 3):
FL is not in the mode to be bought either. Joe Leonard has plans of his own. If the YX doesn't come through I would not rule out a FL/F9 marriage

I find that amusing. When it comes to Midwest, they're apparently supposed to be thrilled someone wants to buy them because they have no plan, no prospects and no future. Can't believe they're anything other than grateful that AirTran has come along to save their hides. But when someone suggests that someone else buy AirTran, oh no sir Joe Leonard has PLANS.

 Smile
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Airtran/Southwest/Midwest

Sat Feb 10, 2007 4:13 pm

Quoting Graphic (Reply 2):
And an already near-capacity Southwest finds itself with 100 aircraft with no homes, forcing bankruptcy

It would solve their near-term desire to add more frames than they have scheduled for delivery - and it'd give them someplace to put a hell of a lot of them. 717's? See COERJ145's post below.

Quoting DeltaDAWG (Reply 3):
The only attraction to WN would be ATL.

Absolutely. It'd be a big bite, but they are certainly capable of pulling it off if they wanted to.

Quoting Srbmod (Reply 5):
Here's my prediction in regards to WN and Atlanta. Athens-Ben Epps Airport (AHN). They have plans to make it possible for 737-sized a/c to safely operate out of the airport (Mainly for UGA football charters) and also have plans to build a new terminal building.

I would have agreed completely a few years ago, and maybe quite a bit one year ago, but now I am pretty convinced that WN intends to go big-time - PHL, DEN, IAD, SFO, MDW expansion, etc. I think that ATL would fit their current strategy much better than AHN. Just my opinion.

Quoting COERJ145 (Reply 7):
Or YX takes 20ish 73Gs and 25 more 717s while WN replaces their 25 735s with 25-30 717s. The rest(35-40) would be split between HA, G4, SY and TZ.

Interesting idea - spin off the 717's over a two or so year period, re-focus ATL on the WN model, and take most/all the 737NG's to make it all happen. Not easy, but not out of the question. The real question is how bad do they want ATL and how bad do they want FL gone?

Quoting Knope2001 (Reply 8):
But when someone suggests that someone else buy AirTran, oh no sir Joe Leonard has PLANS.

In fairness, he said "either": FL is not in the mode to be bought "either". IOW, FL, like YX, has a plan - or at least thinks they do - and want to survive and grow, not be taken over.

-Dave
-Dave
 
srbmod
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RE: Airtran/Southwest/Midwest

Sat Feb 10, 2007 10:34 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 9):
I would have agreed completely a few years ago, and maybe quite a bit one year ago, but now I am pretty convinced that WN intends to go big-time - PHL, DEN, IAD, SFO, MDW expansion, etc. I think that ATL would fit their current strategy much better than AHN. Just my opinion.

Unless some gates magically appear @ ATL in the next few years, WN isn't going to be serving ATL. If and when the South Terminal and Gates ever get built, maybe then will we see WN @ ATL. By then, There will be gates on C and D that will become available (Supposedly, the South Terminal will be occupied by FL, but nothing firm has been established). So until that happens (Probably at least another 6-10 years down the road), pretty much their only options (as I previously mentioned) would be to operate out of E or convert the old NW hangar into a terminal. Option A isn't likely, as the costs to operate out of E are higher than any other concourse, plus WN wouldn't be able to have any afternoon flights since nearly every single gate on E is used for the main US-Europe push of the day. Option B is probably unlikely considering the environmental cleanup that would have to occur (including asbestos abatement) even before any real work could be started (This is why over 3 years after NW closed their ATL maintenance base no other airline has taken the place over).
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Airtran/Southwest/Midwest

Sun Feb 11, 2007 1:22 am

Quoting Srbmod (Reply 10):
Unless some gates magically appear @ ATL in the next few years, WN isn't going to be serving ATL

Oh, I understand what you are saying, and don't disagree. I guess my point is that they would likely not serve ATL at this point, rather than add AHN. They have seen the competition move into the major cities/airports while they were talking to the likes of ABE etc, and now seem to realize that they are going to need to do the same if they don't want to become second choice to VA, B6, FL, or F9.

Which leads me back to FL. If they REALLY want ATL, and if they REALLY want to get rid of a growing competitor, then they can take on the challenge of acquiring FL. If not, I'm just guessing they'll bide their time until more gates open at ATL, rather than enter another second-tier airport.

I may totally be wrong, and have no problem being so.

-Dave
-Dave
 
JetBlueAUS
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RE: Airtran/Southwest/Midwest

Sun Feb 11, 2007 1:25 am

To put it plain and simple:

To bad that this (FL/WN/YX) will probably never happen.
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steeler83
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RE: Airtran/Southwest/Midwest

Sun Feb 11, 2007 3:18 pm

Quoting JetBlueAUS (Reply 12):
To bad that this (FL/WN/YX) will probably never happen.

Now that would give a bunch of us something to talk about. YX could be pointing and laughing at FL for a takeover by WN... They could be like, "HAHA! How does a hostile takeover against your will feel? Yeah? Thought so..."

I don't see it happening either for already posted reasons...

Quoting TVNWZ (Reply 1):
Midwest will never be big enough to digest 80+ 717's. They only have 25 now.

Hmmm... they could open a PIT focus city and put the extra 717s there and operate, I dunno, X amount of flights out of PIT. HAH!!! Not gonna happen either. Does it kill anyone to dream, though?
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
rwsea
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RE: Airtran/Southwest/Midwest

Sun Feb 11, 2007 3:22 pm

DL should buy FL/YZ. In one swoop they could solve their lack of short-haul mainline aircraft problem.  stirthepot 
 
steeler83
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RE: Airtran/Southwest/Midwest

Sun Feb 11, 2007 3:29 pm

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 14):
DL should buy FL/YZ.

Delta Buying FL... We'll have a 1,200 flight... hub... For some reason, it just doesn't seem right to call a 1,200 flight operation a "Hub" operation. Maybe the Georgia Death Star????

Then Grinstein would get the nickname "Darth Fador"

Even better... The Delta Deathstar!!!    To all in ATL      

Grinstein: Airtran Airways, [heavy breathing] I'm your father... [edited for cockroach removal]

[Edited 2007-02-11 07:31:56]

[Edited 2007-02-11 07:34:25]
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
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zippyjet
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RE: Airtran/Southwest/Midwest

Sun Feb 11, 2007 4:16 pm

Quoting Quickmover (Thread starter):
What if Southwest merged with Airtran. Southwest would immediately pick up ATL and about 40 737-700s with 60 more on the way. Southwest would have to temporarily operate 80+ 717s, but could make a deal with Midwest to take the 717s as the 60 Airtran 737-700s are delivered.

From a selfish point of view; I hope never in my lifetime! This would be a marriage/merger made in hell. I have many WN friends and have always been treated great but, lets keep it this way.

Thank You
 Smile
I'm Zippyjet & I approve of this message!
 
avconsultant
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RE: Airtran/Southwest/Midwest

Sun Feb 11, 2007 11:22 pm

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 4):
But WN wouldn't operate an FL-style hub there. And so many markets FL operates would not fit the WN service patterns.

FL & SW newest market strategy are very similar - going after larger cities.

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 4):
If WN wanted to get into ATL there are infinitely cheaper ways to do so.

Not really. There is FL with a successful model in the World's busiest airport keeping the nemesis at bay. SW could enter ATL replacing FL less economical routes with their business model.

Quoting Srbmod (Reply 5):
Athens-Ben Epps Airport (AHN).

In years past, SW has looked at MCN and FTY. Today, they will go straight into the large airport. They've somewhat abandoned the growth into the secondary airport.