2wingtips
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Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Thu Feb 15, 2007 4:43 pm

According to pprune, sourcing the latest edition of Australian Aviation, a Sydney based start-up is about to order 772LRs for Trans-Pacific ops.
That's about it. I have no further confirmation, but it appears unlikely to be Virgin Blue, as they are looking at 773ERs. Trying for a late 2008 inaugural service is also mentioned.
I have not seen the magazine yet and I believe only subscribers have received it at this stage.
A potentially very interesting development. Maybe QF will have 2 Australian competitors Trans-Pacific, as well as Jetstar.
Doesn't leave much room for SQ..........................
I wonder where the 777s are going to come from however. The demand is absolutely intense.
 
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solnabo
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Thu Feb 15, 2007 5:07 pm

Why don´t they start a ULR luxury liner with flights SYD-LHR non stop with 7-LR (130-150 pax)?


Micke//   

[Edited 2007-02-15 09:11:52]
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kc135topboom
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Thu Feb 15, 2007 5:25 pm

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 1):
Why don´t they start a ULR luxury liner with flights SYD-LHR non stop with 7-LR (130-150 pax)?

That might be the only way to fly SYD-LHR, both directions, all 12 months.

Maybe they can fly full passenger/cargo loads SYD-ORD/JFK/BOS? SYD-BOS is 8778nm, easily within range of the B-777-200LR.
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Thu Feb 15, 2007 6:00 pm

OK so you want LRs for New York/Houston/Los Angeles/San Francisco/Chicago non-stop from SYD.

Would QF want them? Possibly but you'd have to think if they were going to order it they would done so by now, and it doesnt say how many. I cant see QF buying them just for IAH non-stop.

Would it be a LoCo like Virgin Blue or Jetstar? Unlikely. Probably not big enough to make it worthwhile.

New carrier? Who knows.

I'd say this is more PPrune nonsense from more people desperate to see the LR get an order.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
Gemuser
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Thu Feb 15, 2007 6:22 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 3):
I'd say this is more PPrune nonsense from more people desperate to see the LR get an order.

I'm with you Chris! (Makes a nice change  Smile I'll belive it when I see the 772LR in SYD with the big VH on the fuselague and wings.

Even if they can get the aircraft, which is a big IF, late 2008 would still be optimistic for a new start up. First they need an AOC & COA, by the end of this year would be very good work. Only then can they apply for designation by Oz under the bi-lateral, then they need US approval, terminal space at SYD (not easy as by then QF will be in a growth phase as A380 & B787 aircraft arrive) airport arrangements where ever in the US, Oz ETOPS approval, which out of the box is frankly unlikely, etc, etc, etc.

Good luck to who ever, but under 2 years from initial start up to ETOPS TransPacific ops! WOW! (if they do it)

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PEET7G
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Thu Feb 15, 2007 6:26 pm

Maybe it's still Virgin Blue, but rather decided to go with a separate identity, maybe Virgin Pacific? I know they where opting for the 300ER, but maybe they found better business-plan for the 200LRs? I don't see any other new player emerging, and certainly not with such expensive equipments as the 77Ls.
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NZ107
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Thu Feb 15, 2007 7:18 pm

Quoting PEET7G (Reply 5):
Maybe it's still Virgin Blue, but rather decided to go with a separate identity, maybe Virgin Pacific?

Of what I know, the Virgin name can't be used outside of Australia, so it could be Pacific Blue or something along those lines.

Quoting PEET7G (Reply 5):
but maybe they found better business-plan for the 200LRs?

I'm sure the 77W would be just as suitable as the 77L for routes like SYD-LAX. But we'll have to wait and see if this is true information first.

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 1):

I think QF have already looked into that but pushed it aside. I don't see any main players in the Aussie market which would be able to fork out millions for the highest tech planes to fly them half way across the world, surely it must be an established airline.
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jbguller
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Thu Feb 15, 2007 7:22 pm

Well we know one thing for sure, it can't be OzJet. The planes are too new.  Smile
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Thu Feb 15, 2007 8:20 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 3):
OK so you want LRs for New York/Houston/Los Angeles/San Francisco/Chicago non-stop from SYD.

Would QF want them? Possibly but you'd have to think if they were going to order it they would done so by now, and it doesnt say how many. I cant see QF buying them just for IAH non-stop.

I think QF will opt for the B-747-800I to fly from SYD to DFW. They have wanted to do this for a while. At DFW they connect into AA's sytem. They don't need CO's sytem in IAH.
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Thu Feb 15, 2007 8:31 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 8):
I think QF will opt for the B-747-800I to fly from SYD to DFW

I'd be very, very surprised if that were to happen.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
Gemuser
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Thu Feb 15, 2007 8:42 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 9):
I'd be very, very surprised if that were to happen.

Oh MY GOD! Twice in one thread???

Dead right Chris, it is extremely unlikely that QF will order the B748i (not impossible, but unlikely!). QF do want to fly to DFW but will do it with either the B787 and/or A380 BOTH of which will have the range, are already on order and provide a range of capacity to cope with growth.

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skyhigh
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Thu Feb 15, 2007 9:18 pm

What about Tiger Airways? They seem very confident about taking the domestic market by storm in the near future. Maybe they are getting a little ahead of themselves!  Wink
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Thu Feb 15, 2007 9:23 pm

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 10):
Oh MY GOD! Twice in one thread???

Dead right Chris, it is extremely unlikely that QF will order the B748i (not impossible, but unlikely!). QF do want to fly to DFW but will do it with either the B787 and/or A380 BOTH of which will have the range, are already on order and provide a range of capacity to cope with growth.

Scary.

I thought it and you said it.  Smile
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Thu Feb 15, 2007 10:33 pm

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 10):
it is extremely unlikely that QF will order the B748i

...and you base that statement on what, aside from your own conjecture?

Ever checked the MZFW range-profile on said aircraft? It was basically built for (the likes of) QF.
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Stitch
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Thu Feb 15, 2007 10:41 pm

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 1):
Why don´t they start a ULR luxury liner with flights SYD-LHR non stop with 7-LR (130-150 pax)?

Insufficient demand at the price-points necessary to make it profitable.

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 13):
Ever checked the MZFW range-profile on said aircraft? It was basically built for (the likes of) QF.

Does that allow a routing that does not overfly Mexico? It has been claimed that the fees to overfly Mexico make DFW service prohibitive for QF so any routing would need to be over the US (turn right at SAN) or cross over Central America and then come up the Gulf of Mexico - both adding miles vs. a Mexican overflight route.
 
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Zkpilot
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Thu Feb 15, 2007 11:26 pm

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 10):
QF do want to fly to DFW but will do it with either the B787 and/or A380 BOTH of which will have the range, are already on order and provide a range of capacity to cope with growth.

787 yes, A380 no... why do you think QF has only gone for 475 seat config rather than 490-510 like many other airlines? Its not because they are being generous I can tell you! (although it would be a nice thought  Wink hehe). To fly MEL-LAX (or VV), the A380 needs to have less pax onboard to save on weight. MEL (or SYD) - DFW is a considerable jump in distance over LAX...Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting
This is where having a mix of both A380 and 748I would be good for QF... QF is big enough to have both... say 20 of each ie 40 aircraft... QF currently have 24x 744, 6x 744ER, 5x743. As QF do not operate 777 aircraft or A340 aircraft, there is a huge gap in capacity between the A330-300 and A380. Now QF is expected to hold onto at least half of its 744's and all of its 744ERs for the medium term, until all the A380 have arrived...after that QF will have this capacity gap unless it replaces the 744's with 748's. The 787-10 will help a little at the lower end being of similar capacity to a 772. The A380 is just too big to operate on many routes and doesn't have the range of the 748I. QF could go and get the 773ER but that would be leaving it considerably late in the show to be getting a new aircraft type. If Y3 comes around in about 2016 then that might also be an option.

Back on topic... 772LR... Who else besides Virgin/Pacific Blue could possibly be ordering these for a SYD based airline? Its possible that JQ might lease some until the 787s arrive for its TransPac operations (this is in 2008 however so unlikely), but otherwise there is noone else around to do that. NZ (not SYD based) could conceivably use them (they are looking at 773ER at the moment) and could use them from SYD/MEL-LAX, AKL-YVR, AKL-JFK.
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ACdreamliner
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 2:29 am

Quoting NZ107 (Reply 6):
Of what I know, the Virgin name can't be used outside of Australia, so it could be Pacific Blue or something along those lines.

Pacific Blue is used because NZ has looser laws about cabin crew (i.e. the planes based in NZ can carry one less FA than an Oz based aircraft). So any flight into, out off or within NZ is operated by Pacific Blue (needed a different trading name).
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 2:33 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 8):
I think QF will opt for the B-747-800I to fly from SYD to DFW

For just one route? Have they shown any interest in the aircraft? Would twice the schedule on 788s not be better?
 
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 2:38 am

Quoting ACdreamliner (Reply 16):
Pacific Blue is used because NZ has looser laws about cabin crew (i.e. the planes based in NZ can carry one less FA than an Oz based aircraft). So any flight into, out off or within NZ is operated by Pacific Blue (needed a different trading name).

Pacific Blue is also used because when SQ bought their stake in VS there was a clause stating that the Virgin name could not be used on Pacific services ex Australia
 
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 2:44 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 8):
They don't need CO's sytem in IAH.

Especially since AA and QF are in One World.
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jbernie
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 3:35 am

Quoting Skyhigh (Reply 11):
What about Tiger Airways? They seem very confident about taking the domestic market by storm in the near future. Maybe they are getting a little ahead of themselves!

Basically if Singapore Airlines can't get the approvals, sent in Tiger Airways and do it for them? Would not be surprised with that. They could always blow raspberries at the Aust Govt. Have Tiger fly the route using Singapore 744s. Qantas would probably have a hissy fit if they saw that happen  Smile.

Re OZjet, would an all Business/First 777 setup work on that route? Certainly there is are lots of business travellers, but for the long haul i would think/expect people to be more concerned about their FF status as it is about 16,000 miles roundtrip, nothing to sneeze at, as opposed to taking the odd SYD-MEL flight on a competitors flight if it was cheaper.
 
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 3:56 am

Even if LHR to Sydney nonstop doesn't work, there are plenty of other nonstop opportunties in America for 772LR's for QF. Sydney to ORD, JFK, DFW, Toronto and Vancouver could all be QF flights. Miami could be interesting too, with DL ordering 772LR's, Atlanta to Sydney has become a topic possibilty.
 
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zeke
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 4:36 am

Quoting 2wingtips (Thread starter):
According to pprune, sourcing the latest edition of Australian Aviation, a Sydney based start-up is about to order 772LRs for Trans-Pacific ops.

If I were to take a guess that would be a 772LR without windows and associated with a Toll company.

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 15):
787 yes, A380 no... why do you think QF has only gone for 475 seat config rather than 490-510 like many other airlines?

787 no as well to MEL, 787/350/380 could do it via SYD or BNE.

Nil wind distances via airways are :

SYD-DFW is 7632 nm
MEL-DFW is 7957 nm

Need a 8500-9000 nm range aircraft to do DFW-MEL with the winds and routes otherwise lots of stops at AKL. The main reason for the 380 seat layout on QF is to do with their seat design and passenger space, SQ are using a similar seat on their 773ERs, and only get 280ish seats in that and similar to QF on the 380.

Quoting Jbernie (Reply 20):
Basically if Singapore Airlines can't get the approvals, sent in Tiger Airways and do it for them?

Tiger OZ will have to be 51% Australian to fly in Australia on an Australia AOC.

SQ have had an offer to setup or purchase 49% of an airline based in Australia, with Australian registered aircraft, and Australian licenced crews to fly the pacific, naturally paying Australian company tax and operating under Australian asset rules. They have had opportunities in the past like Ansett, and currently VB, they have declined on both.

I dont see what the big deal is, this is the exact strategy they adopted with the Atlantic buying 49% of VS.

In my view its a loss of face issue, the dialogue between Singapore and Australia has been too public and done via the press. They only want to fly the pacific in Singapore registered aircraft, which Australia has granted for freight operations only.

Apart from the 345, none of the current SQ aircraft could fly the pacific to MEL without a payload hit, my SQ friends tell me that they operate their 777 fleet or sub 6200 nm routes, and presently operate the new 773ERs at MTOW out of SIN going to Paris. Need the best part of another 500-1000 nm to do the pacific to MEL with the winds, the yields therefore are not fantastic. QF do this by having 744ER aircraft with about 40 less seats than any SQ 744.
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jupiter2
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 5:38 am

Zeke,

You maybe right about Toll, but it is basically for one way traffic across the Pacific.

The aircraft would have to route via Asia on the return to the U.S to make the purchase of such an aircraft viable. I don't know how difficult that would be to get the route licenses etc, as freight into Australia is basically open skies.

The main problem for such a freight start up will still be ETOPS approval and the fact that the aircraft will basically fly empty either to Asia, I would assume China and then across the Pacific, or with a minimal load direct back across to the West Coast. The only freighters going direct from Australia to the U.S I believe are Cargolux, unless they route back via Asia now. On the other hand there would be up to 17 flights from the U.S to Australia weekly and they all head out through Asia, taking minimal loads out with them, with the exception maybe of Fedex.

RL
 
2wingtips
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 6:14 am

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 10):
Dead right Chris, it is extremely unlikely that QF will order the B748i (not impossible, but unlikely!). QF do want to fly to DFW but will do it with either the B787 and/or A380 BOTH of which will have the range, are already on order and provide a range of capacity to cope with growth.

The A380 clearly does not have the range to do SYD-DFW year round with a viable payload. Neither does the 748I with the new range at 8,000nm. 789 would appear to be the best alternative for QF on the SYD-DFW route.
 
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LTU932
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 6:15 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 8):
At DFW they connect into AA's sytem. They don't need CO's sytem in IAH.

Let's not forget that QF is in oneworld, which is why connecting with alliance partner AA at DFW would probably make much more sense than connecting with CO (which is a SkyTeam member) at IAH.
 
2wingtips
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 6:27 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 22):
If I were to take a guess that would be a 772LR without windows and associated with a Toll company.

Not from my understanding, although I am as doubtful on this venture as many of the previous posters. Pax airline not part of the Toll/Virgin/Qantas grouping is my understanding.
 
highflyer9790
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 8:14 am

Quoting 2wingtips (Thread starter):
but it appears unlikely to be Virgin Blue, as they are looking at 773ERs.

news to me....
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sunrisevalley
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 9:08 am

Quoting PEET7G (Reply 5):
but maybe they found better business-plan for the 200LRs? I



Quoting Zeke (Reply 22):
and associated with a Toll company.

I believe there is a viable business plan for the -200LR for a Toll associated carrier. The -200LR could operate at MZFW of 461000lb under the typical westbound LAX-MEL still air condition of 7400nm. Assuming a full 301 passenger load and the in-service ready OEW of about 341600lb. the freight component of the payload could be 40000lb plus.
Eastbound the loads would not change but the MTOW would be reduced. This assumes of course that the load can be balanced etc. etc.
I don't know the revenue per unit weight for freight versus passengers on the Aus/ USA market; perhaps the freight eastbound has a better yield; thus the carrier might not have to chase the lower yielding passenger market.
 
jfk777
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 9:48 am

DFW to Australia should be made to work even if a stop at AKL is necessary. It would so much more efficient for connection to the 70% of QF passnegers from the USA who live east of the Mississippi. Even a 744ER, SYD-ALK-DFW would help traffic. It would be a sad irony if Georgia good ole boys took a pair of 772LR's and flew from Atlanta to Sydney. Those good ole boys have traditionaly been Delta's reactionary management, I get the impression they are more proactive now.
 
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Zkpilot
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 11:32 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 22):
787 no as well to MEL, 787/350/380 could do it via SYD or BNE.

Nil wind distances via airways are :

SYD-DFW is 7632 nm
MEL-DFW is 7957 nm

Need a 8500-9000 nm range aircraft to do DFW-MEL with the winds and routes otherwise lots of stops at AKL. The main reason for the 380 seat layout on QF is to do with their seat design and passenger space, SQ are using a similar seat on their 773ERs, and only get 280ish seats in that and similar to QF on the 380.

and by the time these aircraft are in service, FANS should be well utilised to reduce the wastage on airways. ETOPS requirements are being improved by the FAA so that aircraft only have to be within flying distance for medical and other similar situations rather than purely for engine out situations.
As for MEL-DFW by having a full fuel load but reduced payload this becomes possible and with a 789 or 748 it would still be economical. Sure the A380 'could' do it but is there really demand for a (reduced load) direct flight of 430 people to DFW or vice versa?
QF will no doubt be looking at a LR version of the 789 (even tho the 789 has changed to the HGW version already).
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ConcordeBoy
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 11:47 am

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 29):
the 70% of QF passnegers from the USA who live east of the Mississippi.

...curious as to where you derived this statistic?

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 29):
It would be a sad irony if Georgia good ole boys took a pair of 772LR's and flew from Atlanta to Sydney.

"Sad"?
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LAXdude1023
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 12:26 pm

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 29):
It would so much more efficient for connection to the 70% of QF passnegers from the USA who live east of the Mississippi.

To be honest, I simply dont believe that. Do you have anything for a source?
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B787
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 1:38 pm

Page 14, March 2007 edition of Australian Aviation has it listed. They write that it is a rumour, that 777-200LR orders have been placed with Boeing, start early 2008, and have strong financial backing.

Could it be Air NZ giving it a second shot? They already have the 777, and didn't they convert some of their orders to 777-200LR? Just thoughts.
 
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 2:21 pm

Quoting B787 (Reply 33):
and didn't they convert some of their orders to 777-200LR?

NZ have NO 200LRs on option

In regards to DJ, all I'm able to say is, expect an order very very soon
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Quetzal
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 4:47 pm

Quoting ACdreamliner (Reply 16):
Pacific Blue is used because NZ has looser laws about cabin crew (i.e. the planes based in NZ can carry one less FA than an Oz based aircraft). So any flight into, out off or within NZ is operated by Pacific Blue (needed a different trading name).

From what I have heard, DJ recently began operating the 1:50 ratio of FA/Pax on VH- registered aircraft. They now operate 737-800's with 4 F/A's as opposed to the previous 5. Will be interesting to see if QF follows suit?
Seems that the costs of using NZ vs Australian based crews are converging.
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zeke
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 5:23 pm

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 24):
The A380 clearly does not have the range to do SYD-DFW year round with a viable payload.

Why not ? it has already done SYD-YVR which is FURTHER with a full payload.

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 30):
and by the time these aircraft are in service, FANS should be well utilised to reduce the wastage on airways.

FANS is already in place, I have been using it for some time.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
2wingtips
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 9:12 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 36):



Quoting Zeke (Reply 36):
Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 24):
The A380 clearly does not have the range to do SYD-DFW year round with a viable payload.

Why not ? it has already done SYD-YVR which is FURTHER with a full payload.

it can't do the westbound DFW/YVR-SYD with a n acceptable payload year round. The 748I with a range of 8,000nm(the same as the A380) was ruled out by QF for DFW services once the fuselage was lengthened and the range decreased from 8,300nm.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 11:29 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 36):
it has already done SYD-YVR which is FURTHER with a full payload.

...how so?
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zeke
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 11:33 pm

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 38):
...how so?

Got no idea what that little gem means, will try some use mental gymnastics to anticipate your actual question...

SYD-YVR is 16 nm further than SYD-DEN along the published airways, the 380 has done SYD-YVR as part of the technical route proving flight 4.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Fri Feb 16, 2007 11:54 pm

[quote=Zeke,reply=39]SYD-YVR is 16 nm further than SYD-DEN along the published airways, the 380 has done SYD-YVR as part of the technical route proving flight 4.[/quote

And SYD-DFW is nearly 7500 nm on a great circle basis. If you want to avoid Mexican airspace, the difference is even higher.

If you throw in airways distance, the headwinds of a westbound return and inservice deterioration, the A380 will only be able to fly DFW-SYD with significant payload reductions.

By the way, what was the payload the A380 carried on the SYD-YVR route?
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
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zeke
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Sat Feb 17, 2007 12:46 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 40):
And SYD-DFW is nearly 7500 nm on a great circle basis. If you want to avoid Mexican airspace, the difference is even higher.

My mistake in the post above, SYD-DFW (had something else on my mind when I typed DEN) is less than SYD-YVR, the real distance is closer to 7650 nm, the route I used was via the Mission Bay (MZB) VORTAC taking the path via Los Angeles, Albuquerque, and Ft Worth FIRs, not into Mexico.

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 40):
By the way, what was the payload the A380 carried on the SYD-YVR route?

It was representative of a full payload, not a figure I would post on here. It did land with a significant amount of fuel as well.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Sat Feb 17, 2007 2:05 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 41):
My mistake in the post above, SYD-DFW (had something else on my mind when I typed DEN) is less than SYD-YVR, the real distance is closer to 7650 nm, the route I used was via the Mission Bay (MZB) VORTAC taking the path via Los Angeles, Albuquerque, and Ft Worth FIRs, not into Mexico.

What routing are you using for SYD-YVR? The great circle for SYD-YVR is 6741 nm while SYD-DFW is 7454 nm. As a rule of thumb, airways add about 2% distance. This works for your SYD-DFW route, especially if you're avoiding Mexican airspace, but your SYD-YVR would be increased by over 10%. This would not seem to be a realistic routing. In any case, a 7650 nm still air distance route is not one that an 8000 nm airplane can fly without payload restrictions with 85% westbound winds and inservice deterioration.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 41):
It was representative of a full payload, not a figure I would post on here. It did land with a significant amount of fuel as well.

Give us a hint, was it closer to full pax (555?) or at MZFW payload? Full payload can have so many meanings. Besides, why is it a secret? If it's good news, Airbus should be proud to let it be known.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
DiscoverCSG
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Sat Feb 17, 2007 3:30 am

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 29):
It would be a sad irony if Georgia good ole boys took a pair of 772LR's and flew from Atlanta to Sydney.

I wouldn't put it past those "good ole boys" to do just that. They run major connecting operations to TLV and NRT from ATL, and soon ICN and DXB. All of these flights fly over other hubs with more O/D, but there's just so muchfeed at ATL that it would be hard for Delta not to fill up planes.

While I currently live 90 miles from ATL (and thus would be throwing OnePass miles at DL to get on such a flight in Biz), I used to live near HPN/LGA/EWR/JFK. I'd sure prefer to fly EWR-ATL-SYD over EWR-LAX-SYD. Aside from ATL's relatively easy connections, there's another factor in play:

Passengers like myself, given the absence of a nonstop option, would much prefer to make one leg as short as possible, maximizing time in the air for work, sleep, or whatever.

QF, beware. Everybody talks about the 788 as a game-changer, but the 77L may shake up the US-OZ market, too.
 
antares
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Sat Feb 17, 2007 6:53 am

Olderaeroguy,

I'm not sure why it would be a secret. Every pilot in QF knows the figures, well, those who break bread and share fine wines with us in these parts.

The weight on departure was 560 tonnes. (Or was it tons, it was about as heavy as it gets.) It made a short and rapid takeoff roll and was well off the ground just past the southern side of the General Holmes tunnel. It climbed promptly to FL 340 initially. It reached Vancouver with plenty of fuel, had no trouble departing in the snow storm, and flew another longer than required route to Toulouse to cross over the true north pole.

The field performance of the jet has now been observed in real life at heavy weights in a range of conditions. It takes of and lands slower than a 744 by an appreciable margin. The figures have killed the 748 passenger version for Qantas unless it is given away. The control shot to the head was the reduction in range required for Lufthansa.

What this jet will do as engine improvements and the use of currently empty fuel tank areas are used is interesting to consider.

Qantas needs some good news at the moment. This is good news. When it gets the A380 uplift both ways across the Pacific will be greatly enhanced, especially the end of the large numbers of empty seats forced on them using 744s westbound.

But it is only half the good news. With the range improvements I have read here that Boeing will soon announce for the 787s Jetstar will be able to fly its 330 passenger services non-stop both ways as well, and I have heard hints by a leading Canberra travel agent about Las Vegas as being on the future map as it is considered the second most important holiday destination for Aussies after Anaheim. The 787 will allow QF to be innovative on US routes to the extent we could imagine a service to New York or Florida maybe via Tahiti. Or non stops to Vancouver. Hammer the core routes with A380s and build new nonstop markets with 787s.

My guess is that DJ has put its money on 777s, in what sizes or proportions we will soon know.

Antares
 
jacobin777
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Sat Feb 17, 2007 8:58 am

Quoting Antares (Reply 44):
The weight on departure was 560 tonnes. (Or was it tons, it was about as heavy as it gets.) It made a short and rapid takeoff roll and was well off the ground just past the southern side of the General Holmes tunnel. It climbed promptly to FL 340 initially. It reached Vancouver with plenty of fuel, had no trouble departing in the snow storm, and flew another longer than required route to Toulouse to cross over the true north pole.

The field performance of the jet has now been observed in real life at heavy weights in a range of conditions. It takes of and lands slower than a 744 by an appreciable margin. The figures have killed the 748 passenger version for Qantas unless it is given away. The control shot to the head was the reduction in range required for Lufthansa.

...that's good news to hear about the A380.. thumbsup ...

lets see how it does in "real world" situations....

Quoting Antares (Reply 44):
The 787 will allow QF to be innovative on US routes to the extent we could imagine a service to New York or Florida maybe via Tahiti. Or non stops to Vancouver. Hammer the core routes with A380s and build new nonstop markets with 787s.

...and I've been saying this ever since QF ordered the B787....while the A380 will be the "flagship" for QF, the B787 will be the workhorse for QF, allowing them to compete like never before...

The reality of the "Ditch Route" (Kangaroo Route) will be one of decreasing yields, especially when all the carriers bring in the Big Beast from everywhere to SYD.

QF,
TG,
SQ,
MH,
EK,
QR (when they get rights)
EY....

..amongst others..

...then add new competition to QF's Pacific route with possibly AC and DJ (who knows, maybe SQ will be successful in getting the route), yields on that route will start to go down also....

Quoting Antares (Reply 44):
My guess is that DJ has put its money on 777s, in what sizes or proportions we will soon know.

that's what my bet is on....
"Up the Irons!"
 
antares
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Sat Feb 17, 2007 9:40 am

Jacobin,

I don't expect Malaysian or Thai to use A380s to Australia for a very long time, nor Qatar. Emirates Yes and Etihad only if they ordered more, since we can all think of places they would use a small number of them first.

However peering into the broken, drained and totally unreliable crystal ball that I have, I do think there will be surprise A380 operators within 10 years, including one or both Korean carriers (assuming they don't merge), and at least one Chinese and one Japanese carrier, and I wouldn't rule out Cathay Pacific in due course.

I have vivid memories of Cathay Pacific insisting in the past that Electras would better serve Australia than 707s, and also insisting they wouldn't bring jumbos down here either. Of course it isn't anything like the same airline today, and more change will occur as they exploit their Air China deal , but never say never. It always bites one on the bum.

In fact I wouldn't rule out the kanga-Virgins, because if they grow their long haul business eventually they will have no choice. The mathematics of 5% growth compounded , and the economic changes to our north, and the probability of long term primacy in resources supply from Australia to the rest of the world, all put enormous pressure on aviation in the next few decades.

One moment....that's better. I have retrieved the crystal ball from under my table where it rolled.

It also shows me that there will be another VLA built from scratch sometime in the next 10 years, However the labels Airbus and Boeing don't appear any more. The companies have different names, and seem to be largely owned by non western organisations that currently sit on mountains of USD treasury bonds back before the entire country filed for Chapter 11, just after the collapse of the major hedge funds and the greenback sinking to parity with the peso.

Antares
 
jacobin777
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:30 am

Anteres,

Given that CX run only 3x/A330's on the route, if anything, I would expect them to either bump them up to either B773ER's, A340's or B747's before even thinking about operating the A380 to Australia.

Until TG and MH stop servicing SYD with the Big Beast (as their current intention is), we'll have to assume they will be running it for a while....QR is questionable..but by then VS will fly the A380 to SYD (assuming they will get their the planes).....VS has mentioned SYD is one route they will fly the A380 to.

Of course, by then, I wouldn't be surprised to see BA pull out completely (especially if they can keep the JSA or some other agreement with QF).....

Regardless, I expect to see yields getting trashed..sure aviation is growing at an average of "x" rate..but there are always hiccups as well as the fact more planes are becoming much efficient in terms of CASM, etc.....and I don't think the growth rate will keep up with the amount of seats offered the next 5-7 years...

Australia is seeing an increase in general aviation, especially point-to-point....and just like JFK decades before, niether SYD nor MEL will be the only hubs to fly to if one needs to go to BNE, CNS, PER, etc......I remember a time back in the 70's when I flew to Pakistan with my mother and brothers, we would fly ORD-JFK-FRA/AMS-KHI...now my mom gets on a plane (PK) in ORD and lands in Pakistan....bypassing all those hubs (granted there is a stop in MAN, but my mother doesn't even get off the plane)...with the B777-200LR, A340-500 and the B787's and A350's...it's going to be just that much more efficient...

We'll see about what happens regarding a new VLA manufacturer...while its inevitable it will happen one day, I don't see it happening anytime soon....

Regards...
"Up the Irons!"
 
antares
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Sat Feb 17, 2007 11:18 am

Jacobin,

CX is full all the time, or at least at the times business clients want to fly what is great airline. I'm sure you are right about going up gauge to 777s but we are going to have to wait I think as they surely want to deploy them to the US or Europe or Middle East first. Perhaps we will see than cadge an extra slot for four A330s in the meantime or even bring back any left over 747s that aren't being turned into cargo jets.

But if they have 2.5 times as much demand in 10-15 years time and Sydney still only has one international airport and has no fresh slots from about three years from now, a heck of a lot of A380s are going to be needed. The great merit of the 787s is to p*ss off those who connect from outlying cities like Adelaide etc and give them directs to the main QF hub which is Changi, but could just as well become Hong Kong or long shot Dubai, once the private equity deal goes into receivership and the bankers sell it to let us guess here, interests in the Middle East. An extreme thought maybe, but has been heard being made by some federal MPs in a well known restaurant in Canberra. (This deal is so incredibly on the nose in political circles I am not convinced it will go ahead, although it would be about 6 to 4 on if you were running a book on it.)

I reckon the 787 or A330 or 777 bypass of Sydney is going to be crucial for business travellers in Sydney getting anything like decent frequency to their main destinations in the reasonably near future but that will be on A380s. It isn't a popular view even in Canberra, but I think Canberra will get non-stop daily medium sized jet flights to at least one external hub like Changi in the next decade. A lot of pressure is going to be put on cargo access to Sydney as well as carriers thrash around looking for slots. Again a radical notion, but turning around big cargo jets in Canberra is perfectly reasonable given the room for a freight terminal, and the ease with which road improvements could link up with the freeway in a more truck friendly manner than you see along Majura Road today. Road times between much of Sydney's west and thanks to a new orbital, north, are not that bad put alongside the paralysis that afflicts much shorter drives to Sydney Airport, Port Botany excepted of course.

Terry Snow's crowd at Canberra Airport have been saying this for years. I think they are right.

Antares
 
jacobin777
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RE: Rumour: 772LRs For Sydney Based Airline

Sat Feb 17, 2007 12:37 pm

Thanks for the insights Antares, I dont' know too much about Australian politics (only from what I read on theaustralian.news.com)... Smile

Quoting Antares (Reply 48):
It isn't a popular view even in Canberra, but I think Canberra will get non-stop daily medium sized jet flights to at least one external hub like Changi in the next decade.

..which supports my arguments........I eventually expect to see QF/JQ offering B787 services from most of the bigger cities in Australia-SYD, MEL, BNE, PER, CBR, etc.....while one doesn't know if QF/JQ will eventually get all of the B787's ordered/options (especially given the possible buyout)..I think there is a reason as to why Dixon & Co. decided to go with 100+ frames-aside from fleet replacement, a lot as to do with expansion to many cities such as DFW, SEA, YVR, ORD, etc...

I would like to see QF/JQ offer services to DXB, DEL, etc.

Quoting Antares (Reply 48):
But if they have 2.5 times as much demand in 10-15 years time and Sydney still only has one international airport and has no fresh slots from about three years from now, a heck of a lot of A380s are going to be needed.

...I think the airport needed to be looked at as a comparison is LHR.........even with all the 747's landing into LHR, VLA's still comprise only about 10% of the total......while I don't know the what the numbers in SYD are, certainly its going to be a small % of planes which are VLA's.....

Again, take a look at CX....from 3 A330s to 3 B777s/A340s is a huge jump in capacity.......

Cheers...
"Up the Irons!"

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