cchan
Posts: 954
Joined: Sat May 17, 2003 8:54 pm

How Much Longer Will We See Quads In Pax Service?

Fri Feb 23, 2007 6:03 pm

Except for the A380, other quads (A340, B747) are receiving very few orders. The question is, how long will the A340 and B747 production line remain open? With the rollout of A350 and B787, it will probably make it worse for the quads?

Existing B744s, A342/3s BAe146s and Avro RJs are slowly being retired from major airlines, at some point, will it come to a stage when trying to get on a quad is as hard as trying to get on a L1011 at present?

My guess is by 2025, most passenger quads will be A380s, with a few rare examples of the others operating in the developing world.

What are people's thoughts on this?
 
aa1818
Posts: 1518
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2006 2:03 am

RE: How Much Longer Will We See Quads In Pax Service?

Fri Feb 23, 2007 6:10 pm

Until at least 2030- A380 pax entry is about 2008 and 748i entry is about 2009. Each frame should last about 20 years given the relatively low cycles that would be undertaken by each. Quads are not going anywhere anytime soon!!!!!!

Totally Tropical
AA1818
“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
 
Leskova
Posts: 5547
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RE: How Much Longer Will We See Quads In Pax Service?

Fri Feb 23, 2007 6:29 pm

Quoting Cchan (Thread starter):
Except for the A380, other quads (A340, B747) are receiving very few orders.

The A380 isn't currently raking in orders either, nonetheless, I expect both the A380 and the B748 to receive a couple of orders each year...

Quoting Cchan (Thread starter):
With the rollout of A350 and B787, it will probably make it worse for the quads?

Not really - it just cements the situation that's been here for quite some time now: most orders in the last couple of years have already gone to twins.

Quoting Cchan (Thread starter):
Existing B744s, A342/3s BAe146s and Avro RJs are slowly being retired from major airlines

LH has just recently stocked up on BAe146s, and I don't really see too many B744s or A343s heading to the desert anytime soon...

Quoting Cchan (Thread starter):
will it come to a stage when trying to get on a quad is as hard as trying to get on a L1011 at present?

At some point, clearly, it will. But it'll still be another couple of decades - I absolutely agree with this:

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 1):
Quads are not going anywhere anytime soon!!!!!!

Pretty much sums up my opinion.  Smile
Smile - it confuses people!
 
CrazyHorse
Posts: 316
Joined: Wed Nov 02, 2005 12:16 am

RE: How Much Longer Will We See Quads In Pax Service?

Fri Feb 23, 2007 6:40 pm

Quoting Cchan (Thread starter):
Except for the A380, other quads (A340, B747) are receiving very few orders. The question is, how long will the A340 and B747 production line remain open? With the rollout of A350 and B787, it will probably make it worse for the quads?

The B747-8 had a great last year with a bunch of order and a fantastic launch customer with Lufthansa for their pax version. I think we will see a few small order for both aircrafts (A380, B747-8) this year and at least one great order from BA with more than 20 units per aircrafts.

Quoting Cchan (Thread starter):
Existing B744s, A342/3s BAe146s and Avro RJs are slowly being retired from major airlines, at some point, will it come to a stage when trying to get on a quad is as hard as trying to get on a L1011 at present?

Maybe in 50 years, but how know´s that? I think Quad´s like the A380 and also the B747-8i will have a long future in the international aviation business. These new models will fly at least 20 - 25 years for their first customer and then this aircrafts will move to cargo operator or charter operator.

Quoting Cchan (Thread starter):
My guess is by 2025, most passenger quads will be A380s, with a few rare examples of the others operating in the developing world.

Fly or drive to FRA in 2025 and you will find an airport full of B747-8 and A380 in Lufthansa colours.
 
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EK413
Posts: 4412
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2003 3:11 pm

RE: How Much Longer Will We See Quads In Pax Service?

Fri Feb 23, 2007 9:33 pm

Quoting Leskova (Reply 2):
LH has just recently stocked up on BAe146s, and I don't really see too many B744s or A343s heading to the desert anytime soon...

Well considering a lucrative carriers such as LH has gone ahead as a launche carrier and ordered the B747-8Intercontinental I dont see the quads dissappearing anytime soon...

EK4113
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
Sinlock
Posts: 1631
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2000 12:55 am

RE: How Much Longer Will We See Quads In Pax Service?

Fri Feb 23, 2007 11:00 pm

I'd say that until the industry transitions to a Blended Wing Body, well see quads for quite some time. But after that it will be twin and triple engined aircraft.

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