billreid
Posts: 738
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2006 10:04 am

Can Airbus Break The Product Design Cycle?

Tue Feb 27, 2007 11:52 pm

In this thread I want to create A vs. B stretegic planning dialogue. I want to hear what the future holds strategically from a competitive perspective. I do not wish to hear what manuf is better, I wish to hear which manuf is better positioned in terms of timing.

For instance, is Boeing waiting for the final financing and design plan to come to fruition for the A350XWB just to announce the B737 replacement in response?

Would Airbus be able to respond to the next Boeing narrowbody?

Can Airbus handle both the design of the A350XWB and a A320 replacement simultaneously?

Has the A380 delay really set the stage for Airbus to be a delayed follower to Boeing?
As they are late with the A350XWB versus the B787?
Will the same occur in the narrowbody cycle?

And how does Airbus break this cycle?
Would it be wiser to scrap the A350XWB and go directly to a repalcement for the A320 series ahead of Boeing on the narrowbody front.
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clickhappy
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Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2001 12:10 pm

RE: Can Airbus Break The Product Design Cycle?

Wed Feb 28, 2007 12:01 am

Airlines want (at least) two vendors. Until the Russians get it together, and maybe the Chinese, Airbus and Boeing are it.

And being late to market isn't always a bad thing. The airline business is cyclical, and Airbus can learn from the 'mistakes' of the 787 project to make their answer a better product.
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2003
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

RE: Can Airbus Break The Product Design Cycle?

Wed Feb 28, 2007 1:32 am

Quoting BillReid (Thread starter):
For instance, is Boeing waiting for the final financing and design plan to come to fruition for the A350XWB just to announce the B737 replacement in response?

Yes. Or Y3. Y3 would be best for Boeing, Y1 would be worst for Airbus.

Quoting BillReid (Thread starter):

Would Airbus be able to respond to the next Boeing narrowbody?

Yes. They won't have any choice, and governments are not shy about pumping cash into Airbus.

Quoting BillReid (Thread starter):
Can Airbus handle both the design of the A350XWB and a A320 replacement simultaneously?

No. Historically only Boeing has been able to pull multiple independent projects together simultaneously, which is why Lockheed and Douglass are out of the game now.

Quoting BillReid (Thread starter):

Has the A380 delay really set the stage for Airbus to be a delayed follower to Boeing?

Yes. Airbus has to do something to break that cycle.

Quoting BillReid (Thread starter):
As they are late with the A350XWB versus the B787?

Would it be wiser to scrap the A350XWB and go directly to a repalcement for the A320 series ahead of Boeing on the narrowbody front.

No. But not because of orders. The technology isn't there right now for a 787 efficiency 320/737 replacement. In terms of orders, the overall market depends on the percentage of the market that has gone with the 787. Right now BA, the US carriers and EK have not made their decision. If BA, US and EK (picky any two) go 787, then it is extremely unlikely that the 350XWB will be able to get the orders that they need for the program to be sustainable.

Leahy repeats the 5-10% market mantra, but in reality the later purchases are going to be determined by follow up orders by blue chip customers, who are right now in Boeing's pocket.

But what other choice does Airbus have? They can't afford to cannibalize the A380, the technology isn't there for a 320 replacement, and Boeing is threating to make them a niche manufacturer with the 787.
 
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SEPilot
Posts: 5022
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: Can Airbus Break The Product Design Cycle?

Wed Feb 28, 2007 2:07 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 2):
The technology isn't there right now for a 787 efficiency 320/737 replacement.

It may be very soon; see the thread about engines for the 737RS.

Quoting BillReid (Thread starter):
Has the A380 delay really set the stage for Airbus to be a delayed follower to Boeing?

It's not just the delay, it's the A380 itself. Airbus built it because they wanted a bigger, better one, not because there was a market for it. Granted, some people did want it, but not enough to justify the time and money it cost. The delay is just making a bad situation worse. Boeing has used the time during which Airbus was preoccupied with the A380 to get a headstart on the next generation of airliners which Airbus will be very hard pressed to overcome.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler

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