NYC777
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UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 3:36 am

Just out on Bloomberg, headlines only but will post a link when i can.

Airbus may also push back production of the A380 and a final decision is within days of being made.

Here's a link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...conews&tkr=EAD:FP&sid=am2gSp3b_jDw

Fair Use Excerpt:

Gallois said in an interview that he expects United Parcel Service Inc., its only customer for the A380 freighter, to ''postpone'' its order for 10 planes by a decade.

A380 Freighter

Airbus ''in coming days'' will make a decision on whether to push back plans to produce a freighter version of the plane, Gallois said. UPS said last week it has yet to decide whether to retain the $2.8 billion order.


[Edited 2007-02-28 19:39:53]
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LHStarAlliance
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 3:39 am

Wow that´s not really good for Airbus , at least it´snot a cancellation , will we see the prototype in the next years or will it be also postponed ?
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LTU932
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 3:41 am

I still expect 5X to eventually cancel and go for either the 777-200F or the 747-8F.
 
ikramerica
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 3:41 am

I'm getting tired of these face saving moves by Airbus. Just cancel the damn project, admit it wasn't best suited for the purpose, and move on. (A380F, I'm talking about, not A380 pax). Focus on the A350X, A330F, A389, and A320NG.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
NYC777
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 3:42 am

Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 1):
at least it´snot a cancellation

A 10 year postponment in this industry is as good as a cancellation. Example, Phillippine Air's 744 order. It's been on the books for god knows how long but were postponed. Eventually they were converted to the 77W order. Can the same thing happen between Airbus and UPS? Sure but for now it looks like UPS won't be taking any A380F and Airbus won't be building any mega freighters.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
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Stitch
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 3:44 am

Well it's obvious Airbus is going to stop development on the A380-800F.

What will be interesting to see if 5X is on the hook for A306Fs or A332Fs or if they get their deposits back to allow Airbus to stop that development.

So FX and 5X now have the luxury of waiting to see how the A380-800 program shakes out and whether or not passenger models become available for conversion.

It's good news for Boeing since in the interim, they will be buying Boeing dedicated cargo lift (767F, 777F, 747F).
 
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SEPilot
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 3:44 am

Translation: UPS doesn't want it; we don't want to build it for only 10 planes, but we don't want to give UPS their money back so we'll kick the can WAY down the road.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 3:45 am

Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):
Airbus may also push back production of the A380 and a final decision is within days of being made.

We can safely assume Airbus won't be building whitetail A380F's. Seems like they've put the A380F in the coffin, but can't face burying it.
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LHStarAlliance
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 3:46 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 4):

Yeah maybe they change the order for ,for example 40 330F ... I also don´t see them getting any 380F maybe in 20 years some converted 380...
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airfrnt
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 3:49 am

In ten years Airbus will have a good handle on the A380 program, and if it is worth pushing the capital in to the project to make it happen. Airbus might land a large order to start the process before then. UPS probably gets to freeze their prices, and probably gets a huge chunk of their pre-delivery payments back.

When is a cancellation not a cancellation? When it's the best thing for all parties.
 
katekebo
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 3:49 am

10 years postponement is a virtual cancellation, without calling it that way. With no orders with deliveires over the next 10 years it's obvious that the A380F will be shelved until enough demand exists to make it finacially justifiable. With the two potential largest customers (UPS and FedEx) saying that they don't want the aiplane (at least not during the coming 10 years), I doubt that Airbus can find enough potential buyers to justify the development of a freighter version. And if development of a new, more efficient VLA begins withing these 10 years (or at least Boeing start seriously talking about one), the A380F may never materialize.
 
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chrisnh
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 3:53 am

This falls under the description, 'You yank my chain and I'll yank yours...'

Chris in NH
 
ikramerica
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 3:54 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 9):
UPS probably gets to freeze their prices, and probably gets a huge chunk of their pre-delivery payments back.

A would be better giving the deposits back than to freeze 2 year old prices for ten more years!
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EvilForce
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 3:59 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 12):
A would be better giving the deposits back than to freeze 2 year old prices for ten more years!

Usually capital equipment like this have "accelerator" factors built in. Meaning that the price is what it is + applicable rate of inflation based on an agreed upon measurement of inflation...ie US producer price index until actual delivery.
I bought a Venus Fly Trap today and was going to name it "Republican" but the fly trap is beneficial to the environment.
 
NoWorries
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 4:12 am

Maybe UPS concluded that they don't need the A380F in it's current form so Airbus said: wait -- check back in 10 years and if the A380 gains some momentum, there might be a re-engined A388F or even an A389F with better ecconomics. Otherwise, all of this maneuvering seems like overkill if it's just face-saving to avoid using the "c" word in public.
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 4:36 am

Quoting EvilForce (Reply 13):
Usually capital equipment like this have "accelerator" factors built in. Meaning that the price is what it is + applicable rate of inflation based on an agreed upon measurement of inflation...ie US producer price index until actual delivery.

That is true if the buyer defers the purchase. It's not at all clear whether or not Airbus is actually the party requesting this deferral. If Airbus is behind this, UPS may see an advantage to holding the option to buy A380F's relatively cheaply at a later date. I'd love to be a fly on the wall for this one... smile 
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Ken777
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 4:40 am

This looks like a good deal for both Airbus & UPS. I would guess that Airbus will avoid paying any compensation and UPS will get their deposits back until a new agreement is reached on deliveries.

Ten years from now the 380 will be a far better plane, especially with new engines, and UPS can make a decision based on their current needs. Airbus will, hopefully, have the 389 worked out and be able to design a 380F for less effort than it would take today.
 
nitrohelper
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 4:44 am

How many 747-400s will become available for freighter conversions during the next ten years? Why not just keep converting -400s? Is there a delivery problem ? (What is the cost?)
Last question, would a converted 380F be heavier than a purposed built freighter?
 
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SEPilot
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 4:51 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 16):
This looks like a good deal for both Airbus & UPS. I would guess that Airbus will avoid paying any compensation and UPS will get their deposits back until a new agreement is reached on deliveries.

It looks like a good deal for Airbus. They get to keep UPS's deposits for 10 years and don't have to do anything for it.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 16):
Ten years from now the 380 will be a far better plane, especially with new engines, and UPS can make a decision based on their current needs. Airbus will, hopefully, have the 389 worked out and be able to design a 380F for less effort than it would take today.

This may be the case; it also may be the case that the A380 has sold maybe 300 total by that time, and Airbus finally admits that it was a foolish plane to build and decides not to throw good money after bad and makes no further versions including the freighter. My bet is the A380F never sees the light of day.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
siromega
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 4:51 am

Sounds like an A350F order to me.

Or at least thats what I would try to do if I were Airbus - convert them to A350F instead of outright caning the order.
 
dougbr2006
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 4:53 am

I think this could really benefit Airbus, I mean if they can transfer the development resources to the A350XWB they may well achieve the proposed EIS and cut Boeing edge with the B787 replacing older 777s.

This may also be an Airbus strategy. It would now mean that airbus have loosened up 20 slots for the PAX version if you add this to the FEDEX cancellation. it should help the PAX version get back on line as far as deliveries.

Of course this all depends if they have a solid contract that helps them retain or transfer the deposits for other aircraft then they should not be too unhappy. UPS have not really been voicing too badly about the A380 always edging their bets so maybe this was discussed over the last months after FEDEX cancelled.

As for what UPS will do to fill the GAP well I think that depends on the deposit situation, if its locked into Airbus then the A330F looks like a good proposal. If not locked will they follow FEDEX with the 777F, only time will tell !!!!!!!!!
 
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SEPilot
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 4:54 am

Quoting SirOmega (Reply 19):
Sounds like an A350F order to me.

This may be the best outcome for both parties.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
PExDCA
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 4:57 am

Sounds like opportunity is knock knock knocking on Boeing's door!
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Stitch
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 5:02 am

Quoting Nitrohelper (Reply 17):
How many 747-400s will become available for freighter conversions during the next ten years?

Scores to hundreds.

Quoting Nitrohelper (Reply 17):
Why not just keep converting -400s?

5X is actually buying new-build 744Fs and not 744BCFs.

Quoting Nitrohelper (Reply 17):
Last question, would a converted 380F be heavier than a purposed built freighter?

Yes. It also would have a lower ceiling so it could not load pallets as high as the A380F could.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 18):
It looks like a good deal for Airbus. They get to keep UPS's deposits for 10 years and don't have to do anything for it.

I'd be surprised if 5X was willing to let Airbus sit on their cash for a decade unless they are 100% non-refundable.

Quoting SirOmega (Reply 19):
Sounds like an A350F order to me. Or at least thats what I would try to do if I were Airbus - convert them to A350F instead of outright caning the order.

Yet does 5X want to wait a decade for the A359F? And what if sales for that model are as weak as the A388F's were? Will Airbus launch it on schedule?

Of course, if 5X can't get any of their deposit money back, then they probably just have to hope Airbus comes up with something they want or eventually just write it off as "bad debt".
 
boeingfever777
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 5:02 am

Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):
Airbus may also push back production of the A380 and a final decision is within days of being made.

MISLEADING!!!!

You need to change that or your going to  flamed  big time!

Looking worse for the A380F... Good thing 5X got some 767F's on order.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 5:09 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 23):
I'd be surprised if 5X was willing to let Airbus sit on their cash for a decade unless they are 100% non-refundable.

It's the only explanation I can come up with why 5X hasn't bailed completely. They obviously don't really want the plane and Airbus doesn't want to give them their money back. Remember it comes from converting A306F orders that 5X decided they didn't want.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
brendows
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 5:10 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 23):
Yes. It also would have a lower ceiling so it could not load pallets as high as the A380F could.

Not only that, it wouldn't carry as much payload as the A380F...
 
DAYflyer
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 5:10 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 3):
I'm getting tired of these face saving moves by Airbus. Just cancel the damn project, admit it wasn't best suited for the purpose, and move on.

10 years of postponement is essentially a cancellation. But I will say I think the A-380 is well suited to package delivery of the type UPS needs.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 18):
They get to keep UPS's deposits for 10 years and don't have to do anything for it.

Kinda reminds me of another airlines A-340 situation.......
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boeingfever777
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 5:12 am

Quoting SirOmega (Reply 19):
Sounds like an A350F order to me.

Since Airbus has finalize the design on the A350 right? Not looking like that til late 08'. EIS for what 2013-14? How much longer after that til the A350F another year or 2? 5X will need a/c way before that.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 23):
I'd be surprised if 5X was willing to let Airbus sit on their cash for a decade unless they are 100% non-refundable.

Second that!
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Sangas
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 5:13 am

De facto cancellation.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
So FX and 5X now have the luxury of waiting to see how the A380-800 program shakes out and whether or not passenger models become available for conversion.

 checkmark  This is a smart way for FX and 5X to play the game . Wait to see if the A380 program emulates what happened with MD-11 in that there's an adequate, even ample supply of relatively cheap candidates to mine for conversion to freighters resulting from earlier than normal redundancies in the pax fleet in the short to mid-term.
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NYC777
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 5:26 am

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 24):
Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):
Airbus may also push back production of the A380 and a final decision is within days of being made.


MISLEADING!!!!

You need to change that or your going to big time!

Looking worse for the A380F... Good thing 5X got some 767F's on order.

Actually that is what Airbus is saying. Or at least what Gallois said in the article.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
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fxramper
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 5:33 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 3):
I'm getting tired of these face saving moves by Airbus. Just cancel the damn project, admit it wasn't best suited for the purpose, and move on

 checkmark 

If Airbus has to make another delay on the pax version it can scuttle more than one deal with current airlines.
 
galapagapop
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 5:35 am

For 5X could this announcement have anything to do with the fact the deposits on their A380's are coming from the A300's they no longer wanted, but could not cancel?
 
LHStarAlliance
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 5:44 am

Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):

Congratulations for your 3000th posts !!
 Wink

Quoting FXramper (Reply 31):

If Airbus has to make another delay on the pax version it can scuttle more than one deal with current airlines.

But this´ll not happen they´ve solved all wiring problems , so there´s no reason for another delay ...
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NYC777
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 5:50 am

Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 33):
Congratulations for your 3000th posts !!

Thank you, damned 3000...I must be getting old!! What do I get for it?
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
David L
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 5:53 am

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 24):
Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):
Airbus may also push back production of the A380 and a final decision is within days of being made.


MISLEADING!!!!

You need to change that or your going to big time!



Quoting NYC777 (Reply 30):
Actually that is what Airbus is saying. Or at least what Gallois said in the article.

I think BoeingFever777 is asking if you're sure Gallois didn't say production of the 380F might be pushed back, not the whole 380 project?
 
osiris30
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:00 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
What will be interesting to see if 5X is on the hook for A306Fs or A332Fs or if they get their deposits back to allow Airbus to stop that development.

I believe the press release last week regarding the 380s and UPS stated that either side had the right to cancel the order in the future without penalties. To me this says UPS isn't on the hook for anything.

Quoting NoWorries (Reply 14):
Otherwise, all of this maneuvering seems like overkill if it's just face-saving to avoid using the "c" word in public.

Hardly. This is the last 380F order on the books. Also Airbus recently said no-one will cancel their 380s who have them ordered (in pretty much those exact words). There's an awful lot of face to be saved on this.

Having said that, none of this changes the fact that Airbus pissed away a lot of money on a product that no one wants (for at least 10 years).

Quoting SirOmega (Reply 19):
Or at least thats what I would try to do if I were Airbus - convert them to A350F instead of outright caning the order.

Well that would be about 10 years away I would wager...

Quoting FXramper (Reply 31):
If Airbus has to make another delay on the pax version it can scuttle more than one deal with current airlines.

I almost wonder if this isn't part of it. Has Airbus over committed on the PAX side and need these freighter slots to keep PAX production on schedule? Now I'm not certain this is the case, but as far as I know the PAX version still has no production certificate, so the production ramp may be in jeopardy and they may have needed to keep some of the schedule or lose a PAX customer. Something just seems down right odd about this whole deal.

My guess though is UPS has those deposits locked in due to the 306Fs. Airbus won't give them back and UPS doesn't want the 380F. Eventually Airbus will keep the deposists and UPS will never order another Airbus plane again.
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NYC777
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:07 am

Quoting David L (Reply 35):
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 30):
Actually that is what Airbus is saying. Or at least what Gallois said in the article.

I think BoeingFever777 is asking if you're sure Gallois didn't say production of the 380F might be pushed back, not the whole 380 project?

Oh. Yes quite correct I did mis-type and I did mean to say the A380F.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
isitsafenow
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:14 am

I think they can make some room at Pime Air Museum in Tucson for the thing.
Scarebus might as well pull the plug and advance on the A350.
safe
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Areopagus
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:14 am

Why wouldn't 5X put the deposit money into A330F's sooner rather than A350F's later?
 
David L
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:18 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 37):
Yes quite correct I did mis-type and I did mean to say the A380F.

Dangerous mistake to make on this forum.  biggrin 
 
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Stitch
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:34 am

Quoting Areopagus (Reply 39):
Why wouldn't 5X put the deposit money into A330F's sooner rather than A350F's later?

Because they may not need the A332F having just ordered over two-dozen 767Fs which, while not as capable as the A332F, are still in the same general league.
 
boeingfever777
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:47 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 30):
Actually that is what Airbus is saying. Or at least what Gallois said in the article.

No, He did not! Read it twice.

Quoting David L (Reply 35):
I think BoeingFever777 is asking if you're sure Gallois didn't say production of the 380F might be pushed back, not the whole 380 project?

I hope you made the mistake NYC777...

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 37):
Oh. Yes quite correct I did mis-type and I did mean to say the A380F.

Jesus... I thought the world was going to end with that typo. Big grin

Quoting David L (Reply 40):
Dangerous mistake to make on this forum.

VERY!

"Here lies NYC777  tombstone  on 28th Feb. 2007 for his typo mistake on the A380F." Big grin
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
 
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glideslope
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:49 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 9):
In ten years Airbus will have a good handle on the A380 program, and if it is worth pushing the capital in to the project to make it happen. Airbus might land a large order to start the process before then. UPS probably gets to freeze their prices, and probably gets a huge chunk of their pre-delivery payments back.

ROFLOL. I can imagine Boeing in 1994 saying "we will have a good handle on the 777 program in 10 years.

The 380F is dead. Period.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
NYC777
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:52 am

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 43):
"Here lies NYC777 on 28th Feb. 2007 for his typo mistake on the A380F."

With a stake in the heart courtesy of the A.Net Airbus crowd!!  cheerful 
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
ATCGOD
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:53 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 41):

Because they may not need the A332F having just ordered over two-dozen 767Fs which, while not as capable as the A332F, are still in the same general league.

Not to mention the fact that they probably got a heck of a deal from Boeing since this will help bridge the 767 line until the tankers come.
 
7cubed
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:55 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 12):
A would be better giving the deposits back than to freeze 2 year old prices for ten more years!

 checkmark  Freezing the price would almost certainly make the puchase a losing proposition in 10 years.

Quoting SirOmega (Reply 19):
Sounds like an A350F order to me.

Or at least thats what I would try to do if I were Airbus - convert them to A350F instead of outright caning the order.

That would put a a350f eis close to the a380f. UPS wants frames sooner.
joe
 
NYC777
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:57 am

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 43):
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 37):
Oh. Yes quite correct I did mis-type and I did mean to say the A380F.


Jesus... I thought the world was going to end with that typo.

In my defense I did correctly cite the A380F in the title of the thread though I forgot the "F" in the body of the post.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
boeingfever777
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:06 am

Quoting 7cubed (Reply 47):
That would put a a350f eis close to the a380f. UPS wants frames sooner.

echo from reply #28.

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 48):
In my defense I did correctly cite the A380F in the title of the thread though I forgot the "F" in the body of the post.

Yes you did... That is why I said I read the link twice and could not see Gallois, saying that. No worries... Just wanted to clarify it and once I did I wanted to give you grief over it! Big grin

Be glad a Airbus fan did not catch that typo!
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
 
andessmf
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RE: UPS Postpone A380F Delivery By 10 Years

Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:08 am

Has any airline ever postponed an order for 10 years and then finally receive the airplanes?

IIRC, NW had A330s ordered, but those were cancelled and then reordered again.