hangarrat
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US Applying For PHL-China Route

Thu Mar 01, 2007 11:36 pm

Quote:
In what would be the region's first direct air service to Asia, US Airways plans to announce today that it will seek federal approval to start flying next year nonstop between Philadelphia International Airport and China.

http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/16806017.htm

Discuss.

Also,

Quote:
US Airways would need to acquire a new long-range jet to fly between Philadelphia and China because its largest plane, the Airbus A330, does not have the range to go nonstop. Beijing, China's capital, is 6,900 miles by air from Philadelphia.

US seems to be moving toward an all Airbus fleet. Would they go "Four Engines, For Long Haul" with the A345 or might Boeing win out with US acquiring long range 777s? Is there a 767 variant with suitably long legs? That might be better for the kind of volume on a PHL-China route.
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kl911
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Thu Mar 01, 2007 11:47 pm

Quote:

**************************
US Airways would need to acquire a new long-range jet to fly between Philadelphia and China because its largest plane, the Airbus A330, does not have the range to go nonstop. Beijing, China's capital, is 6,900 miles by air from Philadelphia.
**************************

What plane would they be looking for? Guess they need at least 2 of them? The A330-200 can not do it without penalties, so I recon it will be a A340-300 since a -600 will be to much capacity?

Anyone?

KL911
 
BigGSFO
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Thu Mar 01, 2007 11:57 pm

in my opinion, US has an uphill battle with their bid to China. Acquiring a 4-engined aircraft might be the least of their worries. I do not think they could present a compelling enough bid to justfy another non-stop to China so close to the EWR and IAD gateways. DL's ATL-China, and most certainly AA DFW-China and CO EWR-China applications will be in the mix. We could possibly see some West Coast-China applications as well which, also in my opinon, could be more compelling than another east-of-the-Mississippi gateway.

We could argue the merits of PHL all day - their population, economy etc. But the bottom line is that the Boston-New York-Newark-Philadelphia-Washington-Baltimore urban blob is well served to China by US airlines already. What could a PHL gateway offer that isn't already being offered through Newark and Washington?
 
ehho
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 12:00 am

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 2):
urban blob is well served to China by US airlines already

Well, maybe it just isn't. It's good to see that US is coming out of the mess they were in. All luck to them!
"Get your facts first. Then you may distort them as much as you please" -- Mark Twain
 
BigGSFO
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 12:14 am

Quoting EHHO (Reply 3):
It's good to see that US is coming out of the mess they were in.

I won't disagree with you here. US has come a long way to become who they are today. It's just I think the route award will go to adding a gateway outside of the region. Atlanta, Dallas and the west coast, again only my opinion, have the best chances of securing a new flight to China.
 
steeler83
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 12:25 am

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 4):
I won't disagree with you here. US has come a long way to become who they are today. It's just I think the route award will go to adding a gateway outside of the region. Atlanta, Dallas and the west coast, again only my opinion, have the best chances of securing a new flight to China.

Good points. US has definitely come a long way, and I applaud Parker for what he has done with an airline that was on the verge of bankruptcy (CH7).

Doesn't DL already have a presence (a small one, but still..) in Asia? I know all of the other legacies do. And PHL is right smack in the middle of the Northeast Corridor, which lies about 3 hours from JFK and EWR and 4 hours or so from IAD driving time. Flying time, it would make for a very short connection.

If Parker really is going to go forward with this, I am sure he'll put some kind of an ace up his sleave to have things go his way. Then again, he tried that with his DL takeover. We all know what happened with that...
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
RDUDDJI
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 12:32 am

Quoting HangarRat (Thread starter):
US seems to be moving toward an all Airbus fleet. Would they go "Four Engines, For Long Haul" with the A345 or might Boeing win out with US acquiring long range 777s? Is there a 767 variant with suitably long legs? That might be better for the kind of volume on a PHL-China route.

IMO, a 767 (even if it could do it) would be a waste. If you're gonna fly a route with that stage length, you need at minimum the pax/cargo capacity of a 777 or a 340.
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
pilot21
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 12:37 am

Quoting RDUDDJI (Reply 6):
IMO, a 767 (even if it could do it) would be a waste. If you're gonna fly a route with that stage length, you need at minimum the pax/cargo capacity of a 777 or a 340

Another thread on US airways B757 with winglets mentions the airline is in talks with Air Canada about aquiring some 2nd hand A340's, so I suppose they feel they can keep things on a common platform if they step up to an A340. (maybe use them on the Athens route as well beofre the A332's arrive)
Aircraft I've flown: A300/A310/A320/A321/A330/A340/B727/B732/B733/B734/B735/B738/B741/B742/B744/DC10/MD80/IL62/Bae146/AR
 
kl911
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 12:39 am

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 2):
I do not think they could present a compelling enough bid to justfy another non-stop to China so close to the EWR and IAD gateways.

That's what I was thinking as well. I mean, that would be like having flights to Beijing from Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Brussels. Wouldn't one of the other hubs be better?

Kl911
 
FreequentFlier
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 12:41 am

I think their odds of winning this route are about 1 in 10 (i expect DL ATL-PVG route to win). They would have been better putting in a bid from CLT (low O-D, but a Southern hub, given that the South has no China nonstops currently), or from LAS (the Chinese are avid gamblers).
 
BigGSFO
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 12:45 am

Quoting FreequentFlier (Reply 9):
They would have been better putting in a bid from CLT (low O-D, but a Southern hub, given that the South has no China nonstops currently), or from LAS (the Chinese are avid gamblers).

Or Phoenix. Seriously, a new gateway in a new part of the country with a growing metropolis. In addition US could connect virtually the entire country (with the exception of the Northwest probably) to China through their network via Phoenix. There is probably not much O&D, but a 330 PHX-PVG could work, in my opinion.
 
steeler83
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 12:53 am

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 10):
Or Phoenix. Seriously, a new gateway in a new part of the country with a growing metropolis. In addition US could connect virtually the entire country (with the exception of the Northwest probably) to China through their network via Phoenix. There is probably not much O&D, but a 330 PHX-PVG could work, in my opinion.

PHX has been discussed before, but I don't know about a 330 doing it. I know a 30-300 can't do it, and I don't think a 330-200 quite has the legs for it...
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
UALMMFlyer
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 2:04 am

Handicapping anyone's chance at this early stage is really premature, IMHO.

AA, CO, NW and UA have not made any noise on whether they will apply or what routes they will apply. One has to consider whether any new routes or additional services will be annouced by the China's Big-Three airlines between now and the decision date. If we read the most recent DOT decision correctly, capacity, locally generated traffic, and new market are the three critical factors.

What prevent AA's DFW-PEK winning the bid ( in addition to the Pilot issue) is the locally generated China traffic. This can also apply to DL's ATL application. ATL and DFW seem to be in the same boat. If DOT rejects AA, then it would also likely to reject DL's ATL application.

Competition was clearly not on the mind of DOT in this last round

There are several daily flights from China to SFO, LAX and NYC Metro by the Chinese airlines. I doubt DOT will award another frequency to any existing cities with China services.

Rumor has that UA is considering DEN-PVG. It will interesting to see PHL, DEN, ATL and DFW compete against each other!
Treat others like you'd like to be treated!
 
UnitedFirst
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 2:16 am

Rumor has that UA is considering DEN-PVG. It will interesting to see PHL, DEN, ATL and DFW compete against each other!

If United applies for anything, it would almost certainly be SFO-CAN. However, although CAN would be a first for a non-stop flight from the United States by a US-based carrier, giving it something of an edge, I think United would be smart to sit out the race for Tier 1 city service, seeing how they won the last round and already have 5x daily service to mainland China. It seems as though United wouldn't stand much of a chance – and this is NOT UA bashing...look at my user name!

In my opinion, it would be interesting to see United apply for a Tier 2 city – although the profitability potential could be a bit questionable.
 
BigGSFO
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 2:53 am

Quoting UnitedFirst (Reply 13):
If United applies for anything, it would almost certainly be SFO-CAN.

I agree. UA has a very well positioned hub in SFO which could easily sustain a non-stop to a secondary city in China. The O&D is there. UA could very well have an untapped market to themselves - for a long time. And they don't even need to apply (unless it's CAN); it's my understanding destinations aside from PVG, PEK and CAN are attainable outside the current US/China application process (or something like that).

DEN-PVG is not a possibility. It's just isn't. No matter how many paper dragons drape in the airport, Chinese restaurants downtown or how often the local station runs "Flower Drum Song." Not when UA has a major hub in SFO which (in addition to NYC) is the key gateway to China. It would be like AA launching STL-GIG instead of MIA-BSB (etc) if additional US-Brazil slots were available.
 
SFORunner
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 3:02 am

Quoting UnitedFirst (Reply 13):
In my opinion, it would be interesting to see United apply for a Tier 2 city – although the profitability potential could be a bit questionable.

1) Seven Frequencies will be allocated for use in 2008 for combination service.

2) Seven Frequencies will be allocated for use in 2008 that can go towards combination or all-cargo service. The destination city in China must be in "China Zone 2".

3) Fifteen Frequencies will be allocated for use in 2008 for all-cargo service

Zone 2: Anhui, Fujian, Guangdong (except Guangzhou), Hebei, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Shandong, Shanxi, Tianjin, and Zhejiang
 
cltguy
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 3:11 am

Anyone think that since US supported UA recent bid for IAD China service that UA will now support US' bid for PHL service? I scratch your back you scratch my back.
 
BigGSFO
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 3:23 am

Quoting Cltguy (Reply 16):
Anyone think that since US supported UA recent bid for IAD China service that UA will now support US' bid for PHL service? I scratch your back you scratch my back.

Not at all. UA will definitely pursue any opportunity they can to expand their Chinese operation. It was nice of US to support UA's application this time, but next time, especially since US applies for their own authority, I doubt UA will do anything to support it. Especially with PHL-China - if US were to secure this route, it could potentially dilute yield on UA's IAD-PEK. Instead of scratching their back, they'd be reaching for a knife.

Ah, the politics of the airline business.  Wink
 
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ua2162
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 3:33 am

Great.

Now your bags can get lost on the way to China, too.  Smile
 
BigGSFO
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 3:41 am

Quoting UA2162 (Reply 18):
Now your bags can get lost on the way to China, too.

OK, that's funny!  laughing  Or the bags tagged to PVD and CVG will end up in PVG...
 
MCOflyer
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 3:55 am

I think US will win. It would be the first time in 16yrs since they served asia. I think they will get 2 A340's reguardless if they win the service. They need a/c bad and the 340/330 is perfect combo.

MCOflyer
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cba
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 4:08 am

Quoting Pilot21 (Reply 7):
Another thread on US airways B757 with winglets mentions the airline is in talks with Air Canada about aquiring some 2nd hand A340's,

 checkmark 

AC is rumored to be offering two A345's for lease or sale to US. The range of the 345 would be a bit of overkill for either PHL-PEK or PHL-PVG (about 6200 and 6500nm respectively), however the plane has a pretty sick MTOW, so they'd be able to pack it full of cargo as well. IMO, the 343 would be the best option for US on this route: contrary to popular belief these days, the 343 is actually a very efficient aircraft on these type of long hauls.

The A332 does not quite have the legs for a PHL-China nonstop. PHL-PEK would be possible, but the payload restrictions would make it difficult to fill the high-yielding cargo belly of the aircraft. If US wants to do this route now, before the A350 comes online, then the A340 is their only real option. 777 deliveries are backlogged, and introducing an entirely new type for one route does not make much sense (as much as I'd love to see the 777 in US colors). Correct me if I'm wrong, but finding a second hand A343 would be a lot easier than finding a 777.

Quoting KL911 (Reply 8):
Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 2):
I do not think they could present a compelling enough bid to justfy another non-stop to China so close to the EWR and IAD gateways.

That's what I was thinking as well. I mean, that would be like having flights to Beijing from Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Brussels. Wouldn't one of the other hubs be better?

In all fairness, New York, Washington and Philly are all very large cities, each metroplex having 5+ million, so it's not quite the same argument.

Quoting FreequentFlier (Reply 9):
or from LAS (the Chinese are avid gamblers).

Why would they fly all the way to LAS when they can just go to Macao?

Quoting UALMMFlyer (Reply 12):

Competition was clearly not on the mind of DOT in this last round

No kidding! As much as I think that UA's capital to capital campaign made a lot of sense, awarding yet another slot to the largest incumbent in the market does not make a lot of sense. The route should have gone to CO (or AA had their pilots not shot the proposal).
 
BigGSFO
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 4:11 am

Quoting MCOflyer (Reply 20):
I think they will get 2 A340's reguardless if they win the service.

For what route? Only 2 in a fleet is terribly inefficeint. I can't think of any current US route that could warrant a 340, except maybe LAX-LAS on a Friday night.  sarcastic 

Quoting MCOflyer (Reply 20):
I think US will win.

Maybe if theirs is the only application submitted. But honestly, as far as new airlines to Asia go, AS would have a better shot out of SEA than US does out of PHL. Now that's an application I'd ike to see.
 
ContinentalEWR
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 4:19 am

I doubt they will get it. And if they do, look out for a really bad in flight experience on a 16 hour nonstop.

I think US is getting a little big for its britches. it's still a sub par airline.
 
BigGSFO
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 4:31 am

Quoting Cba (Reply 21):
In all fairness, New York, Washington and Philly are all very large cities, each metroplex having 5+ million, so it's not quite the same argument.

You'll get no arguement from me there. They are very big cities, with strong economies indeed. But with only 7 weekly frequencies up for grabs, how will it maximize this highly valued authority and how will it benefit the largest potential group of US-China travelers by awarding a route to another Northeastern gateway? Are the residents of Philadelphia (or the metropolitan area which arguably spills into the New York City-Newark metropolitan area) disadvantaged at all with today's availability of seats and cargo space to China? How will PHL-PEK/PVG boost the market when there is already non-stop availablity via EWR and IAD?

All I am saying if stacked against Atlanta, and possilby Dallas and hopefully Los Angeles, Philadelphia probably doesn't have a shot. Which isn't to say if Open Skies were ever opened between China and the US that PHL-PEK/PVG wouldn't be successful. It's just when there is only 7 frequencies up for grabs, there are other gateways (and regions and economies in the country) more in need of service.
 
VS11
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 4:42 am

Why wouldn't US win the route from Philly? If you are claiming that the entire Northeast is well served from New York, then why do we need flights to Europe from Boston or Philly, let's all fly from New York -- just as a comparison Philly has at least 3 daily flights to London - 2 on BA and 1 on US so I do not see that argument to fly at all.

In fact, since Boston does not have direct non-stop service to China, and US has a great presence in BOS so opening Philly to China is a great way to offer more service and competition. Also, they should be looking into Shanghai as well.

And yes, A346 would be perfect for them, particularly in view of the cargo capacity. All in all, I think this is a winning proposition. I wish US all the best. They deserve it.
 
BigGSFO
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 5:19 am

Quoting VS11 (Reply 25):
Why wouldn't US win the route from Philly? If you are claiming that the entire Northeast is well served from New York, then why do we need flights to Europe from Boston or Philly, let's all fly from New York -- just as a comparison Philly has at least 3 daily flights to London - 2 on BA and 1 on US so I do not see that argument to fly at all.

I didn't say the entire Northeast is well served from New York. I said that with only 7 frequencies availble for the next application process, it should be awarded to a gateway outside the Northeast. As we all know, the current US-China bilateral is extremely restrictive and access to the lucrative US-China market is highly competitve. Currently, if any region in the US is adequately served to China by US airlines, it is the Northeast. Not only are there non-stops from Newark and soon, Washington, but also via Chicago (which serves most markets duplicated by PHL) and SFO (PHL-SFO-PEK/PVG. Say what you want about the connection, it's still an option). What about the rest of the country? Why should they be denied a closer gateway to China?

In addition, the transatlantic market from the Northeast to Europe is vastly larger than the Northeast to China. Obviously comparing these two markets are not relevant to this discussion as they represent two different ecomomies, markets and availability of authorites.

If there were more than 7 frequencies to be awarded, then yeah, perhaps PHL would have a better chance.

[Edited 2007-03-01 21:29:19]
 
ScottB
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 5:25 am

Quoting VS11 (Reply 25):
Why wouldn't US win the route from Philly? If you are claiming that the entire Northeast is well served from New York, then why do we need flights to Europe from Boston or Philly, let's all fly from New York

Well, again, the issue is that the slot allocations to China are extremely restricted, unlike most transatlantic markets.

Quoting VS11 (Reply 25):
In fact, since Boston does not have direct non-stop service to China, and US has a great presence in BOS so opening Philly to China is a great way to offer more service and competition.

CO could make the exact same argument about EWR-PVG, since they fly BOS-EWR hourly. They'd also be offering service from a larger metro area.

I continue to feel that one of the biggest issues is going to be proving to DoT that they have the experience with the long-haul aircraft type that will be needed to operate PHL-PVG. HP's PHX-HNL-NGO flights were almost 20 years ago and they were a disaster. Pre-merger US Airways had no experience with operating to Asia. If US picks up the AC A340-500's, will they have enough experience operating long-haul (as opposed to transatlantic medium-haul) flights?

I'm still convinced that Delta is probably most likely to win the route, given the huge region which the ATL hub serves.
 
cba
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 5:51 am

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 24):
But with only 7 weekly frequencies up for grabs, how will it maximize this highly valued authority and how will it benefit the largest potential group of US-China travelers by awarding a route to another Northeastern gateway?

I don't completely disagree with you; if the DOT awards the flight to the Northeast, it will be hard for them to justify granting US the route from PHL and not to CO from EWR. However, either EWR-China or PHL-China will still generate a lot of traffic and utilize the route to its maximum potential. So, the South doesn't have a direct China connection? There's more draw from the NE, Midwest and West Coast anyway, and connecting through any of those points is not out of the way if you live in the South.

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 26):
the current US-China bilateral is extremely restrictive

 checkmark 

Yeah, the current agreement is absolutely ridiculous. If this many airlines are applying for slots, then more should be available. Let the market decide which routes will work, not the DOT.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 27):
I'm still convinced that Delta is probably most likely to win the route, given the huge region which the ATL hub serves.

I take it that you're speaking of the south. People from the US south could just as easily connect through ORD, the east coast or the west coast as they could ATL. DL has a strong application, but they will have a tough battle against CO's EWR-PVG proposal, which has the massive O&D from the NYC area as well as a full hub of connections.
 
A330323X
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 6:15 am

Quoting UnitedFirst (Reply 13):

In my opinion, it would be interesting to see United apply for a Tier 2 city – although the profitability potential could be a bit questionable.

Er, there are Tier 2 combination frequencies available *now*.

All UA has to do (or NW or AA or CO) is ask for them. No one wants them.
I'm the expert on here on two things, neither of which I care about much anymore.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 6:32 am

Quoting Steeler83 (Reply 5):
Doesn't DL already have a presence (a small one, but still..) in Asia?

Yes; DL serves NRT, TLV, and BOM with its own metal.

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 24):
But with only 7 weekly frequencies up for grabs

Actually, 14 potential such frequencies are up for grabs, but only 7 of them are mandated to be pax service.

Quoting VS11 (Reply 25):
Why wouldn't US win the route from Philly? If you are claiming that the entire Northeast is well served from New York, then why do we need flights to Europe from Boston or Philly

...something about Euro flights served from BOS/PHL being open and available to almost anyone?

Quoting Cba (Reply 28):
Yeah, the current agreement is absolutely ridiculous. If this many airlines are applying for slots, then more should be available. Let the market decide which routes will work, not the DOT

You seem to be forgetting that the DOT is only one side of the equation; the PRC (proper) has only got three carriers with the capability to op such routes in the near term-- hence their slow evolution.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
VS11
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 6:39 am

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 26):
If there were more than 7 frequencies to be awarded, then yeah, perhaps PHL would have a better chance.

Sorry, my misunderstanding. I was making a general argument as I was not aware of the limited number of frequencies. I found out from your post that precedes mine but I think we were posting at the same time as I did not read it prior to my posting. In view of the frequencies limitation, Philly indeed does not seem a convincing proposal unless there are more people concentrated in the Northeast and/or businesses that do more business with China and need the extra service.

Perhaps, the DOT can use all of these application as a basis to re-negotiate the air services agreement. Does anybody know when it was last revisited?
 
TropicBird
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 6:47 am

Doug Parker has just gone on record as saying they will use either (2) 777's or (2) 340's on the route and that the aircraft will come from a leasing company.
 
vega
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 6:49 am

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 22):
Maybe if theirs is the only application submitted. But honestly, as far as new airlines to Asia go, AS would have a better shot out of SEA than US does out of PHL. Now that's an application I'd ike to see.



Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 24):
All I am saying if stacked against Atlanta, and possibly Dallas and hopefully Los Angeles, Philadelphia probably doesn't have a shot. Which isn't to say if Open Skies were ever opened between China and the US that PHL-PEK/PVG wouldn't be successful. It's just when there is only 7 frequencies up for grabs, there are other gateways (and regions and economies in the country) more in need of service.

You say alot, but have very little other than obvious emotional bias to support your position/s. What is your basis for the above? Do you have a demographic analysis, a U.S. - China business segment analysis, or anything other than a dislike for the airline and/or region? Explain why "there are other gateways (and regions and economies in the country) more in need of service" than the 4th largest standalone MSA, which has NO services to Asia. Selecting a city based on geographics and potential connection feed alone is a recipe for disaster. If the international O&D is not there, this route will fail economically. Do you really think Parker chose PHL over anywhere else by drawing straws? Also, one cannot dismiss the significant political influence of the Philadelphia region, particularly in an election year. Your point about UA taking a negative posture against US's application is at best hilarious.The two airlines have extensive code share agreements, belong to the same (Star) Alliance and most of all, have a very good potential to eventually merge. Further, UA is not even involved in this bid.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 27):
I continue to feel that one of the biggest issues is going to be proving to DoT that they have the experience with the long-haul aircraft type that will be needed to operate PHL-PVG. HP's PHX-HNL-NGO flights were almost 20 years ago and they were a disaster. Pre-merger US Airways had no experience with operating to Asia. If US picks up the AC A340-500's, will they have enough experience operating long-haul (as opposed to transatlantic medium-haul) flights?

That I agreed with an have stated so in several previous threads. If US is to have a chance they will need to acquire the aircraft and start gaining provable experience to another Asian city before next year, since the China route must be started in March 2008. Obviously a problem is that if US is indeed acquiring the AC 340-500s, they are not available until September/October of this year.
We are but a moment in this vast Universe and when gone we will never have existed.
 
ScottB
Posts: 5413
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 7:10 am

Quoting Vega (Reply 33):
If US is to have a chance they will need to acquire the aircraft and start gaining provable experience to another Asian city before next year, since the China route must be started in March 2008. Obviously a problem is that if US is indeed acquiring the AC 340-500s, they are not available until September/October of this year.

And that's a bit problematic, too, since it's doubtful that they'd be able to acquire NRT slots on short notice (without extremely high economic costs), and most of the other possible options aren't especially attractive (or may be restricted as well). KIX? SEL? DEL? HKG? Does it make sense to develop a route which will be abandoned in six months for the China route (or is there a plan to lease in still more long-haul aircraft in 2008)?
 
cba
Posts: 4228
Joined: Sat Jul 15, 2000 2:02 pm

RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 7:35 am

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 30):

Quoting Cba (Reply 28):
Yeah, the current agreement is absolutely ridiculous. If this many airlines are applying for slots, then more should be available. Let the market decide which routes will work, not the DOT

You seem to be forgetting that the DOT is only one side of the equation; the PRC (proper) has only got three carriers with the capability to op such routes in the near term-- hence their slow evolution.

Yes, the PRC is ultimately who gives slots to the DOT to assign. What I meant is that the entire bilateral agreement was crap, and that the market should decide which routes and airlines are successful, and not the PRC government giving away a certain amount of the slots to the DOT so that airlines can lobby for them.
 
ConcordeBoy
Posts: 16852
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 7:42 am

Again, you're (not surprisingly) missing the forest for the trees...
....there's a (rather justified) reason that the PRC has chosen to artificially limit the growth of alloted frequencies at this point.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
positiverate
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 7:45 am

Quoting Cba (Reply 35):
What I meant is that the entire bilateral agreement was crap, and that the market should decide which routes and airlines are successful, and not the PRC government giving away a certain amount of the slots to the DOT so that airlines can lobby for them.

Agreed. But until both sides acquiesce to an open skies policy...it is what it is.
 
cba
Posts: 4228
Joined: Sat Jul 15, 2000 2:02 pm

RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 7:57 am

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 36):
Again, you're (not surprisingly) missing the forest for the trees...
....there's a (rather justified) reason that the PRC has chosen to artificially limit the growth of alloted frequencies at this point.

There is a reason, and I understand it, however I disagree with the action because it is a form of protectionism which I am largely against. If there is a large market for US-China passenger (and cargo) flights, it should be served. Limiting the growth of alloted frequencies only keeps fares artificially higher, harming both US and Chinese travelers and business.
 
mah584jr
Posts: 422
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2006 2:35 pm

RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 8:04 am

Quoting Vega (Reply 33):
The two airlines have extensive code share agreements, belong to the same (Star) Alliance and most of all, have a very good potential to eventually merge.

I'm not so sure that US and UA are as close as you may think, especially now. I think pre-merger US was kind of a younger sibling to UA, but US has done well as United continues to have struggles(financially). If I were UA, I would look at US as more of a competitor than an ally.

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 24):
How will PHL-PEK/PVG boost the market when there is already non-stop availablity via EWR and IAD?

While I'm not sure if PHL-PVG would be approved, PHL has a tremendous capability of supporting the route, even with IAD and EWR rather close. A reason US should be considered is that they don't have any US-Asia routes at all. US does have a large customer base, which would probably like to fly on their airline rather than CO at EWR or UA at IAD.
 
ConcordeBoy
Posts: 16852
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 8:42 am

Quoting Cba (Reply 38):
Limiting the growth of alloted frequencies only keeps fares artificially higher, harming both US and Chinese travelers and business.

...and letting foreign carriers run circles around your own relatively fledgling intercontinental operators before they're prepared/equipped to mount a comparable expansion-- harms only Chinese business, hence the PRC's obvious choice of stance.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 6091
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 8:44 am

Quoting TropicBird (Reply 32):
Doug Parker has just gone on record as saying they will use either (2) 777's or (2) 340's on the route and that the aircraft will come from a leasing company.

While this appears to be a stop gap measure, if this is indeed true, this has caused many issues with other airlines when operating such a small subfleet of a specific type in a niche route.

One aircraft has maintenance issues, has to make an emergency landing, diversion, etc, then that flight is unable to get back on schedule. Especially if one requires an extended period of maintenance like blowing an engine, or any sort of incident. They you are down to a one airplane fleet and would have to cut this route to every other day. I'm sure this is a point that the other applicants are going to ram down the DOT's throat when all the grandstanding & politics begin. I guarentee that they will pick apart US a lot worse than anyone on this board currently is doing.

AA ran into this problem when they got 2 747SP's to operate DFW-NRT. ProAir had this problem with a 5 airplane fleet. While it can work, there is little room for error.
 
vega
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 8:53 am

Quoting ScottB (Reply 34):
And that's a bit problematic, too, since it's doubtful that they'd be able to acquire NRT slots on short notice (without extremely high economic costs), and most of the other possible options aren't especially attractive (or may be restricted as well). KIX? SEL? DEL? HKG? Does it make sense to develop a route which will be abandoned in six months for the China route (or is there a plan to lease in still more long-haul aircraft in 2008)?

Well I think if US wants to improve their chances they need to invest in Asia period and show it. I would (excluding financial consideration and acting somewhat entrepreneurial) like to see them acquire 5 long haul aircraft now and start flying to Asia - maybe HKG or SEL with the intent of continuing the service regardless of the China outcome. If not now, eventually US will probably get a China route. Obviously a major benefit of China in 2008 is the potential Olympic revenue to jump start the service and the economic benefits to the region from spill over business relationships. The only long haul schedule for US is several 330-200s in 2009/2010, which would not reach Asia, other than Japan, from PHL. These aircraft however can be canceled or rescheduled based on the outcome of the ongoing negotiations regarding the 350-XWB performance/delivery schedule, which is supposidly now near 2014, If they wait for the 350, all the prime fruit will be picked IMO. Parker also stated to Analysts that US is/has been also talking to Boeing.
We are but a moment in this vast Universe and when gone we will never have existed.
 
UnitedFirst
Posts: 451
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2001 12:16 pm

RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 8:55 am

I think pre-merger US was kind of a younger sibling to UA, but US has done well as United continues to have struggles(financially). If I were UA, I would look at US as more of a competitor than an ally.

I agree with your comments about pre-merger US being a 'younger sibling' to UA – likely something that grew out of the merger situation; however, to say UA has 'struggles (financially)' while US is doing well...that's a gross misinterpretation of the current situation. If anything, I think US should be looking at UA as more of a competitor than an ally – not vice versa.
 
steeler83
Posts: 7391
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2006 2:06 pm

RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 8:55 am

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 17):
Quoting Cltguy (Reply 16):
Anyone think that since US supported UA recent bid for IAD China service that UA will now support US' bid for PHL service? I scratch your back you scratch my back.

Not at all. UA will definitely pursue any opportunity they can to expand their Chinese operation. It was nice of US to support UA's application this time, but next time, especially since US applies for their own authority, I doubt UA will do anything to support it. Especially with PHL-China - if US were to secure this route, it could potentially dilute yield on UA's IAD-PEK. Instead of scratching their back, they'd be reaching for a knife.



Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 17):
Ah, the politics of the airline business.

Every man for himself now...  box  duck  box 
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
centrair
Posts: 2845
Joined: Thu Jan 13, 2005 3:44 pm

RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 9:38 am

PHL is a smart move. Glad they are not doing it from CLT, PHX or LAS. Though LAS could be nice for the Chinese, PHL could bring in good O&D and be an attractive link for those coming from Asia.

But I put US chances low. US has NO experience in Asia. (HP had a failed PHK-HNL-NGO route with 747-200s). But even if they don't get a China route, they should expand into Asia. I know that they have been talking with airports and authorities. It was rumored that NGO approached US as they can't get NRT slots but could get good business from NGO. US could also provide a connection to the Northeast/East Coast which is one region NGO would like to have.

If they go for A345s, (I would perfer it to the A343) they will have the ability reach HKG, ICN, and even MNL from some of their hubs. If they were really ambitious, they could try for Oz or India. Though economically not the best plane to operate, it would provide an immediate solution for long-haul expansion and would meet their current majority Aribus fleet. Then when the A350WXYZSDFHGKO comes out, they can ditch the A340s and use a plane that would let them do Asia and Europe economically and efficiently.

It is all very exciting.
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
worldtraveler
Posts: 3417
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RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 10:03 am

no, it's not exciting. It's actually rather childish.

US expressed no interest in China until DL filed its application for ATLPVG. After losing the DL acquisition (and Parker being sentenced to do jail time for "off campus" immature behavior), US decided they'd file for service to China.

I'm not about ready to say that US or PHL doesn't deserve Asian service but other airlines have waited years to have their own service and have spent years developing Asian route systems - along with acquiring the aircraft necessary to serve Asia. Airbus fleet commonality or not - US has no presence in Asia and acquiring even A345s hardly assures success in any market.

(and by the way, DL's list of Asian cities by this summer will include NRT, ICN, TLV, DXB, and BOM).

US has done nothing to prepare for this route application. They are applying solely because they are trying to play the role of spoiler for DL. You can count on them dragging their feet through the entire application process so that whoever wins - probably DL - will be forced to start service on the same couple months notice that UA is being forced to do this year and CO did last year (which incidentally is wrong that the DOT can't get its SH** together soon enough to give the winning airline the opportunity to properly market its new route).

Thankfully, there are people who can see US' tactics. In all likelihood, the same group of legislators who dressed Parker down during the airline consolidation hearing will tell US to properly do its homework before applying for precious national assets.
 
cityguy
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Dec 25, 2005 3:12 am

RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 10:43 am

Quoting UA2162 (Reply 18):
Great.

Now your bags can get lost on the way to China, too.

I think the US bid is a good one as long as they dont mind the CEO being a drunk.
 
delawareusa
Posts: 69
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:48 am

RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 10:53 am

The 777 would be the more logical a/c for this route, and for US airways at this time. The 777 can reach Asia from all their hubs, can do Europe from PHX and LAS even on hot days, and is much more economical then A345. Only issue is can they get 777s by next year.
 
KevinSmith
Posts: 626
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2006 9:08 am

RE: US Applying For PHL-China Route

Fri Mar 02, 2007 11:39 am

Quoting HangarRat (Thread starter):
Quote:
In what would be the region's first direct air service to Asia, US Airways plans to announce today that it will seek federal approval to start flying next year nonstop between Philadelphia International Airport and China.

http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/16806017.htm

Discuss.

Also,

Quote:
US Airways would need to acquire a new long-range jet to fly between Philadelphia and China because its largest plane, the Airbus A330, does not have the range to go nonstop. Beijing, China's capital, is 6,900 miles by air from Philadelphia.

US seems to be moving toward an all Airbus fleet. Would they go "Four Engines, For Long Haul" with the A345 or might Boeing win out with US acquiring long range 777s? Is there a 767 variant with suitably long legs? That might be better for the kind of volume on a PHL-China route.

So they made it official eh? There has been talk of it in the forums for months. As for the aircraft its word in the street is that they well buy AC A345s as AC is getting their 777ERs.
Learning to fly, but I ain't got wings.

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