CX747
Topic Author
Posts: 5580
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:54 am

The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 5:06 am

What does the future hold for the 747 fleet at UPS? With the cancellation of the A380F order, will the 747 "Classics" be held onto longer? I know that the 747-400F was ordered but what is the likelihood of seeing an order for the 747-8F?
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23206
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 5:12 am

5X is taking both new-build 744Fs and 744BCF conversions over the next few years, so I imagine the 747-8F has a better then average chance at seeing service in "brown and gold".
 
WestJetYQQ
Posts: 2763
Joined: Thu Jan 18, 2007 1:31 pm

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 5:13 am

A 747-8F would be absolutely Beautiful in UPS colours. I think they will have to hold onto the older 747s a bit longer to make up for the A380s.

It's always good to see Boeing aircraft continuing service!  flamed 

Cheers
Carson Smile
Will You Try to Change Things? Use the Power that you have, the Power of a Million new Ideas.
 
boeingfever777
Posts: 1990
Joined: Tue Jul 28, 2009 1:35 am

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 5:20 am

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...601087&sid=a.iZbMrZYraw&refer=home

UPS, the biggest cargo-plane customer for Airbus rival Boeing Co., may announce an order for 15 Boeing 777s and 15 747- 800s in four to six weeks, said Ned Laird, managing director of Seattle-based consulting firm Air Cargo Management Group.

Does that answer your question?

UPS U.S.A. North America 747-400F GE 16-Aug-2005 8

748F will go nicely with the 744F.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
 
MCOflyer
Posts: 7071
Joined: Tue Jun 13, 2006 5:51 am

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 5:25 am

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 3):

This wouldnt surprise me.

MCOflyer
Never be afraid to stand up for who you are.
 
adipasqu
Posts: 148
Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2004 1:37 pm

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 5:28 am

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 3):
UPS, the biggest cargo-plane customer for Airbus rival Boeing Co., may announce an order for 15 Boeing 777s and 15 747- 800s in four to six weeks, said Ned Laird, managing director of Seattle-based consulting firm Air Cargo Management Group.

That fleet mix will give 5X much more operating flexibility than they could have ever hoped for with the 388F, not to mention also having the heavy lift capability for potential odd-sized and overweight cargo. I know, they are a box hauler, but you never know when you might need a nose door for something big
707 722 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 741 742 752 753 762 763 764 D9S D10 319 320 321 M80 M82 M83 M87 M88 M90 SF3 ERJ CRJ
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23206
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 5:30 am

Quoting Adipasqu (Reply 5):
I know, they are a box hauler, but you never know when you might need a nose door for something big.

Actually, 5X does have a heavy cargo division so your comments that the 747F and 777F give them more flexability and the ability to lift heavy and odd-sized cargo are spot on.  Smile
 
adipasqu
Posts: 148
Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2004 1:37 pm

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 5:37 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
Actually, 5X does have a heavy cargo division so your comments that the 747F and 777F give them more flexability and the ability to lift heavy and odd-sized cargo are spot on. Smile

I thought so. We had some heavy and odd-sized equipment shipped to Japan and it ended up on a converted 5X 741, which surprised me that they could even take it!
707 722 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 741 742 752 753 762 763 764 D9S D10 319 320 321 M80 M82 M83 M87 M88 M90 SF3 ERJ CRJ
 
boeingfever777
Posts: 1990
Joined: Tue Jul 28, 2009 1:35 am

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 5:37 am

The 748F is getting hotter as the summer gets closer... 5X is going to need make a decisions soon to keep with other cargo carries... ie: FX, 5Y, & CV!
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
 
CHIFLYGUY
Posts: 133
Joined: Mon Aug 14, 2006 10:14 pm

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 6:06 am

Boeing had projected a pretty slow build rate on the 748's. With demand so hot and the A380F cancelled for now, are they looking at ramping up the production rate?
 
osiris30
Posts: 2310
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 6:13 am

Quoting CHIFLYGUY (Reply 9):
Boeing had projected a pretty slow build rate on the 748's. With demand so hot and the A380F cancelled for now, are they looking at ramping up the production rate?

I'm sure Boeing will adjust production as necessary, but I don't expect them to go over board. They did that once in the past and it cost them large. You'll probably see marginal increases happen over time. If demand for the product holds then maybe a few more increases, but nothing major.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
PC12Fan
Posts: 1978
Joined: Sat Jan 27, 2007 11:50 pm

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 6:17 am

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 3):
UPS, the biggest cargo-plane customer for Airbus rival Boeing Co., may announce an order for 15 Boeing 777s and 15 747- 800s in four to six weeks

This raise an eyebrow for me as I wonder if FedEx will now consider the 748F to keep up with UPS?  scratchchin 
Just when I think you've said the stupidest thing ever, you keep talkin'!
 
osiris30
Posts: 2310
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 6:18 am

Quoting PC12Fan (Reply 11):
This raise an eyebrow for me as I wonder if FedEx will now consider the 748F to keep up with UPS?

Fedex doesn't need to 'keep up' with UPS. Fedex just needs to get their packages where they need to go. This isn't about who has the bigger... ermmm... fleet... that sort of thinking created the whole 380 mess in the first place.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
PC12Fan
Posts: 1978
Joined: Sat Jan 27, 2007 11:50 pm

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 6:32 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 12):
Fedex just needs to get their packages where they need to go.

As does UPS.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 12):
Fedex doesn't need to 'keep up' with UPS.

Nor do they want to "catch up" to UPS.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 12):
This isn't about who has the bigger... ermmm... fleet.

 checkmark  It's about flexibility and capacity.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 12):
that sort of thinking created the whole 380 mess in the first place.

From what I hear, engineering had more to do with that issue......
Just when I think you've said the stupidest thing ever, you keep talkin'!
 
osiris30
Posts: 2310
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 6:34 am

Quoting PC12Fan (Reply 13):
From what I hear, engineering had more to do with that issue......

The 380 programme (especially the F component) was less an engineering debacle and more of management/political/ego driven castastrophe.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
boeingfever777
Posts: 1990
Joined: Tue Jul 28, 2009 1:35 am

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 6:45 am

Quoting PC12Fan (Reply 11):
This raise an eyebrow for me as I wonder if FedEx will now consider the 748F to keep up with UPS?

Or just opt. for their (15) 777F options!  Wink
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
 
User avatar
fxramper
Posts: 5837
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2005 12:03 pm

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 6:58 am

Quoting PC12Fan (Reply 13):
Nor do they want to "catch up" to UPS.

Don't know where your getting your information from, but FX has dominated 5X for years now in the air war. While 5X moves more packages by ground, we kill them in the air and continue to take more market share from them every quarter.

Quoting PC12Fan (Reply 11):
FedEx will now consider the 748F

Wouldn't you like to know.  Wink
 
Gr8Circle
Posts: 2387
Joined: Fri Dec 02, 2005 11:44 am

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 7:06 am

Quoting PC12Fan (Reply 13):
Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 12):
that sort of thinking created the whole 380 mess in the first place.

From what I hear, engineering had more to do with that issue......

I'm sure many at Airbus must be regretting their decision to try and show the world that they do indeed have a bigger.....  duck 
 
CX747
Topic Author
Posts: 5580
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:54 am

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:02 am

What is the likelihood that FEDEX will now opt for the 747-8F? I know that they ordered 777s, but with the A380F being cancelled they can no longer consider it an option.

It would be nice to see the 747 "Classics" operate a little bit longer.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23206
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 12:21 pm

Quoting CX747 (Reply 18):
What is the likelihood that FEDEX will now opt for the 747-8F?

Never say never...
 
WingedMigrator
Posts: 1769
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2005 9:45 am

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 1:50 pm

Quoting CX747 (Reply 18):
with the A380F being cancelled they can no longer consider it an option.

Nobody has said that the A380F program was cancelled. There is a big difference between the pause button and the stop button. And yes, the pause may last a decade, but that still makes it a pause.
 
sparkingwave
Posts: 563
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 1:01 pm

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 2:28 pm

The A380F must have been a competent plane to begin with, or 5X and FX wouldn't have ordered them in the first place. I'm sure they listened to and considered all the marketing pitches by both the Boeing and Airbus camps, and then made a decision based on their needs.

If Airbus could have stuck to its schedule, then none of the cargo customers would have changed their orders. The 747-8F wasn't that good of a plane to sway 5X and FX away from the A380 on its own merit. These carriers have still not ordered the 747-8F as a replacement, so the likelihood of it being a "default" airplane for these carriers to choose over the A380 seems unlikely.

OTOH, 5X ordered a shizzle-load of 767s, and I didn't see that coming!

SparkingWave ~~~
Flights to the moon and all major space stations. At Pan Am, the sky is no longer the limit!
 
MCOflyer
Posts: 7071
Joined: Tue Jun 13, 2006 5:51 am

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 2:37 pm

With the A380F delayed, Im sure they 5X is talking to Boeing about 777F and 748F. I think the classics will stay until 5X can get a good replacement for them. When does the first 744 come online? Is this a new built or seocnd hand model?

MCOflyer
Never be afraid to stand up for who you are.
 
User avatar
N328KF
Posts: 5810
Joined: Tue May 25, 2004 3:50 am

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 4:41 pm

Quoting SparkingWave (Reply 21):
The A380F must have been a competent plane to begin with, or 5X and FX wouldn't have ordered them in the first place. I'm sure they listened to and considered all the marketing pitches by both the Boeing and Airbus camps, and then made a decision based on their needs.

The thing is, when the A380F deals were signed, two freight monsters from Boeing did not exist: 777F and 747-8F.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
MCIGuy
Posts: 1445
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2006 8:15 am

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 5:02 pm

Quoting MCOflyer (Reply 22):
With the A380F delayed, Im sure they 5X is talking to Boeing about 777F and 748F. I think the classics will stay until 5X can get a good replacement for them. When does the first 744 come online?

This summer, June?

Quote:
Is this a new built or seocnd hand model?

Brand-new.
Airliners.net Moderator Team
 
User avatar
kc135topboom
Posts: 11007
Joined: Sun Jan 30, 2005 2:26 am

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sat Mar 03, 2007 10:49 pm

Quoting SparkingWave (Reply 21):
The A380F must have been a competent plane to begin with, or 5X and FX wouldn't have ordered them in the first place.

Or a very slick marketing campaign.

Quoting SparkingWave (Reply 21):
If Airbus could have stuck to its schedule, then none of the cargo customers would have changed their orders. The 747-8F wasn't that good of a plane to sway 5X and FX away from the A380 on its own merit. These carriers have still not ordered the 747-8F as a replacement, so the likelihood of it being a "default" airplane for these carriers to choose over the A380 seems unlikely.

I don't think that is correct. When the A-380-800F was offered, Boeing was not yet offering the B-747-400ERF, B-747-800F, or the B-777-200LRF. If the B-747-800F or B-777-200LRF were offered, I doubt Airbus would have landed as many A-380-800F orders as they did.

Airbus may have dug themselves into a very deep hole for the new build freighter market. Now they are only offering one "F" product, the A-330-200F. No, they cannot reopen the A-300-600F line as that will compete directly with the A-330F they are now offering. The A-330-200F seems to be competing with the much older design B-767-300ERF. No, it does not compete with the B-777-200LRF as the A-330-200F cannot compete with the gross load and range. They (EADS/Airbus) have only two other products that they could POSIBBILY offer, a freighter version of the A-340-500/-600, with a possible swing open tail section (ala B-747-400LCF) for outsized/oversized cargo, and a freighter version of the A-320 series. But, I doubt the A-320F will sell very well as Boeing has not gotten any commerical orders for their B-737-700C. All they have for that are the USN C-40A orders. Of course Airbus could offer a cilivian version of the A-400M, but we have all scene how well the BC-17 or the L-100 has sold.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 20):
Nobody has said that the A380F program was cancelled. There is a big difference between the pause button and the stop button. And yes, the pause may last a decade, but that still makes it a pause.

I doubt the A-380-800F will ever be offered again, at least not until they land several hundred more A-380-800 passengers versions are sold. That is a very steep hill for Airbus to climb right now. The last break even numbers I saw for Airbus on the A-380 program was about 420 airframes. I have a feeling that number is now closer to 500 airplanes to help recoup the cost of the A-330-200/-300s Airbus is giving away or selling at bargan basement pricing and other costs.
 
Buddys747
Posts: 226
Joined: Thu Jan 11, 2007 6:33 am

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sun Mar 04, 2007 1:42 am

I hope they get the 747-8f. The 747 is still an awesome sight to see in the sky, and hopefully we will see them for years to come.
 
User avatar
kc135topboom
Posts: 11007
Joined: Sun Jan 30, 2005 2:26 am

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sun Mar 04, 2007 1:50 am

Quoting Buddys747 (Reply 26):
The 747 is still an awesome sight to see in the sky, and hopefully we will see them for years to come.

Including the most recent orders for the B-747 from 2006, we can expect to see B-747s flying until about 2035.
 
SDF21
Posts: 10
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 3:13 pm

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sun Mar 04, 2007 4:09 pm

Do not forget about converted 744F we have already brought 2, it would not surprise me if they order even more.
 
columba
Posts: 5045
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2004 10:12 pm

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Sun Mar 04, 2007 5:37 pm

Quote:

UPS begins talks with Boeing for possible order: report

United Parcel Service Inc. has begun talks with Boeing Co. for a possible deal after the company canceled its order for 10 Airbus A380 superjumbo freighters, The Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday.

UPS declined to specify which models it is considering, and a Boeing spokesman declined to comment. But people familiar with the talks said UPS is eyeing Boeing's planned 747-8 jumbo jet, said the report.

UPS's commitment to the A380 freighter had been uncertain because it was the only remaining customer out of four initial buyers, and the delivery date of its order recently slipped to 2012 from 2009.

The shipping company terminated its order this week, which had a catalogue value of roughly 3 billion dollars. The Airbus has said in a statement that it was "disappointed" by UPS's decision, but adding the move would free up Airbus to focus on the more important passenger version of the two-deck plane.

Source: Xinhua


http://english.people.com.cn/200703/04/eng20070304_354158.html
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
UPS Pilot
Posts: 829
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 1:17 pm

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Tue Mar 06, 2007 7:54 am

Quoting FXramper (Reply 16):
Don't know where your getting your information from, but FX has dominated 5X for years now in the air war. While 5X moves more packages by ground, we kill them in the air and continue to take more market share from them every quarter.

FX, You might want to revise your statement about "continue to take more market share from them every quarter." Remember we move alot of our air by ground because are operations are all intergrated as one. No Air driver, Ground Driver, @ Home driver with UPS. One Driver for all services. Have a look at this as far as continuing to take market share from us!!

Traffic World – Jan. 15, 2007
The World's Top Cargo Airlines
FedEx remained the world's largest air cargo airline and Korean Air the largest international air cargo carrier in the latest annual rankings of top cargo airlines, but there were sharp movements among other airlines that signal dramatic changes in global freight shipping patterns. ... Internationally, the leap by UPS from fourth to second in the global rankings was the latest sign of the growing strength of the integrated express carriers: FedEx and UPS held the top two positions in the global rankings as they increased their international operations. UPS was the only one of the top four air carriers to see traffic grow over 2004, and the 23.4 percent increase at the airline was the best among the top 25 airlines in the rankings.

UPS "was the ONLY one of the top four carriers to see traffic grow over 2004" "The 23.4 percent increase at the airline (UPS) was the best among the top 25 airlines in the rankings."

Here is freight tonnage and movements for SDF and MEM:

KSDF Total '05 Tonnage: 1,814,730 m.t., +4.3 percent. Total '05 Aircraft Movements: 179,681, +6.7 percent.
KMEM Traffic: Total '05 Tonnage: 3,598,500 m.t., +1.2 percent. Total '05 Aircraft Movements: 392,360, +1.1 percent.

As you can see looking at both our hubs with the latest numbers on hand that MEM growth is flat and SDF is growing 4 times as much in Tonnage and 6 times as much in aircraft movements.

Now look at earnings statements. We will go off ofr 2005 annual reports for both companies since the 2006 Annual report for UPS hasn't been released yet.

UPS Revenue 2005 42, 581,000,000 or 42..6 billion dollars an increase of 6 billion over the previous year
Fed Ex Revenue 2005 29,363,000,000 or 29.4 billion dollars and increase of only 4.6 billion over the previous year

UPS Profit 2005 6,143,000,000 or 6.1 billion dollars an increase of 1.2 billion over the previous year
FedEX Profit 2005 2,471,000,000 or 2.5 billion dollars an increase of 1 billion over the previous year

This is all segments of Fed Ex Corp and UPS. As you can see UPS had 13.2 billion more dollars in revenue than Fed Ex. UPS had 1.4 billion dollars more in revenue growth than Fed EX. UPS had 3.6 billion dollars more in profit than Fed Ex. UPS had 200 million dollars more in profit growth than Fed EX.

Bottom line is UPS is beating Fed EX in total revenue, and growing more than Fed Ex in Revenue. UPS is beating Fed Ex in Profit and growing more in Profit than Fed Ex. So as far as beating UPS in TOTAL market share and continuing to do so, the dollars speak for themselves.
 
CX747
Topic Author
Posts: 5580
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:54 am

RE: The 747's Future With UPS

Tue Mar 06, 2007 8:53 am

Interesting to see in the latest article, only the 747-8 was mentioned.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower

Who is online