PanAm747
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Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

Sun Mar 04, 2007 8:59 am

This question is reference to the recent post on SA and their planned expansion to ORD, and somewhat about their chaotic schedulings to the U.S. All of my questions are hypothetical.

Let's start with UA (forgetting the codeshare with SA for now) and/or AA deciding to fly to JNB and/or CPT with their own airplanes. These are the questions I would like to ask:

  • At the current time, do either UA or AA have the necessary planes to fly to South Africa? And what would be preferable - 767-300's (ER's?) or 777's?

  • Which hub airport would UA & AA use? My guess for AA would be MIA, based on previous a.net discussions. Which airport would be better for UA - ORD or IAD? Both offer their own advantages for O&D as well as connecting traffic.

  • Could AA make a MIA-JNB-CPT-MIA routing work? Do any of their 767's or 777's have the range to do so?

  • Does DL's 5th freedom rights between Dakar, Senegal, and both the U.S. and South Africa extend to other airlines of the U.S.? If so, would that be the most likely tech-stop location? Or might UA or AA search for another possible routing?

  • If UA and AA joined DL in flying to Dakar, connecting that city to the U.S. at ATL, IAD, ORD, and/or MIA, could DKR be developed as a West African hub to connect other cities to the U.S.?

  • Would both airlines be better off waiting until 787's become available?

    Whew!! Quite a few questions, but I'm curious as to the likelihood of expansion. Thanks in advance for your responses!!

    [Edited 2007-03-04 01:03:16]
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    Evan767
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Sun Mar 04, 2007 9:38 am

    Quoting PanAm747 (Thread starter):
    If UA and AA joined DL in flying to Dakar, connecting that city to the U.S. at ATL, IAD, ORD, and/or MIA, could DKR be developed as a West African hub to connect other cities to the U.S.?

    No. Passengers flying JNB-ATL and ATL-JNB on DL are not allowed to deplane in Dakar. Only those passengers traveling ATL-DKR and JNB-DKR are allowed to deplane. The plane is then recatered and fueled very quickly and turned right around. There really is no time to let passengers connecting to other destinations in the U.S. off of the plane. I do not know if SID is safer, but DKR doesn't seem like the best place for a hub. The terminal is small and for DL a little red truck has to escort you to the runway. That kind of freaked me out when I saw it.
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    UnitedFirst
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Sun Mar 04, 2007 9:57 am

    At the current time, do either UA or AA have the necessary planes to fly to South Africa? And what would be preferable - 767-300's (ER's?) or 777's?

    It would certainly depend on the market. If they wanted to go non-stop, United would have to use a 747-400, and even that would likely be with some payload restrictions. Beyond that, anything west of the eastern seaboard would pretty much be out of the question for non-stop service. As for AA, they'd have to do a one-stop no matter what as the 777s don't have the legs for a non-stop, at least not year-round.

    Which hub airport would UA & AA use? My guess for AA would be MIA, based on previous a.net discussions. Which airport would be better for UA - ORD or IAD? Both offer their own advantages for O&D as well as connecting traffic.

    It is incredibly doubtful that UA would enter the US-South Africa market what with SAA now in Star Alliance. However, if for some reason it did happen, it would certainly have to be from ORD, as IAD is already linked by SAA. With AA's strong hub in MIA, that would make for a logical departure point for any future South African services.

    Could AA make a MIA-JNB-CPT-MIA routing work? Do any of their 767's or 777's have the range to do so?

    I have to defer to someone with more tech knowledge on this issue, but obviously a 767 could not make a MIA-JNB trip.

    Does DL's 5th freedom rights between Dakar, Senegal, and both the U.S. and South Africa extend to other airlines of the U.S.? If so, would that be the most likely tech-stop location? Or might UA or AA search for another possible routing?

    As stated above, fifth freedom rights are not relevant here.

    If UA and AA joined DL in flying to Dakar, connecting that city to the U.S. at ATL, IAD, ORD, and/or MIA, could DKR be developed as a West African hub to connect other cities to the U.S.?

    That would depend on the Africa strategies of the U.S. carriers, although such a situation seems highly unlikely.

    Would both airlines be better off waiting until 787's become available?

    Again, it's HIGHLY UNLIKELY that United will open service on this route in light of its SAA partnership. Of course, if the numbers are crunched and it seems profitable, all bets are off. As for AA, it seems like waiting for the ultra-longrange 787 would be preferable, as non-stop flights are usually preferable.
     
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Sun Mar 04, 2007 9:58 am

    Quoting PanAm747 (Thread starter):

    # At the current time, do either UA or AA have the necessary planes to fly to South Africa? And what would be preferable - 767-300's (ER's?) or 777's?

    Yes, a 772 or 744 can do it non-stop to Cape Town in both directions. Any plane could do with a stop on the way, which would be most likely.

    Quoting PanAm747 (Thread starter):
    Which hub airport would UA & AA use? My guess for AA would be MIA, based on previous a.net discussions. Which airport would be better for UA - ORD or IAD? Both offer their own advantages for O&D as well as connecting traffic.

    AA would use MIA, there is no question about it. Washington is a huge local market for Africa, but the fact that SAA already flies IAD-South Africa pretty much elimates the chances of UA flying to South Africa (but certainly not other African cities). O'Hare isn't a good jumping off point, as SAA's now canceled O'Hare service shows.

    Quoting PanAm747 (Thread starter):
    #


    # Could AA make a MIA-JNB-CPT-MIA routing work? Do any of their 767's or 777's have the range to do so?

    AA's 772s can do MIA-CPT-MIA non-stop. JNB would need a fuel stop, and that is where the money is.

    Quoting PanAm747 (Thread starter):
    Does DL's 5th freedom rights between Dakar, Senegal, and both the U.S. and South Africa extend to other airlines of the U.S.? If so, would that be the most likely tech-stop location? Or might UA or AA search for another possible routing?

    Yes, it would extend to AA and UA as well. AA or UA would likely use another point in Africa, though. If AA from Miami, Lagos would make the most sense (wealthy Nigerian community in South Florida; oil traffic); if UA from Dulles, Accra would make the most sense (wealthy Ghanian community in DC/Baltimore; good business ties between the Middle Atlantic and Ghana in general).

    Quoting PanAm747 (Thread starter):
    Would both airlines be better off waiting until 787's become available?

    IMO, no. Is the 787 better for the market? Yes, probably. But wait too long, and somebody else will become established. The time to enter is now. And then when the 787 comes along, use that plane in the market if it will improve the economics of the route.
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    MCOflyer
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Sun Mar 04, 2007 10:13 am

    Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 3):
    AA's 772s can do MIA-CPT-MIA non-stop. JNB would need a fuel stop, and that is where the money is.

    Please explain what you mean as " that is where the money is".

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    PanAm747
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Sun Mar 04, 2007 11:19 am

    I knew I'd forget something in this "hypothetical" situation...

    All of the United questions were posed on the assumption that the codeshare with SA would be no longer active. I am not implying that SA is going to be kicked out of Star Alliance, but if for some reason it wanted to leave, would UA ever want to fly without a codeshare?
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    MAH4546
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Sun Mar 04, 2007 11:24 am

    Quoting MCOflyer (Reply 4):
    Please explain what you mean as " that is where the money is".

    Business traffic goes to Jo'Burg, leisure traffic goes to Cape Town.

    Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 5):

    All of the United questions were posed on the assumption that the codeshare with SA would be no longer active. I am not implying that SA is going to be kicked out of Star Alliance, but if for some reason it wanted to leave, would UA ever want to fly without a codeshare?

    If SAA were to leave, possibly, especially if IAD is a strong performer for SAA.
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    WestJetForLife
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Sun Mar 04, 2007 11:50 am

    Well, UA would probably base their CPT/JNB flights out of IAD or JFK using 747-400s exclusively, since the 747 is the most logical airplane to use in a direct flight situation like this.

    AA is a little more tricky. Since they do not use 747-400s, they'd have to use a fuel stop somewhere in Africa (probably DKR like Delta does) using 777s.

    That is how I'd imagine it'd work.

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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Sun Mar 04, 2007 12:12 pm

    Quoting WestJetForLife (Reply 7):
    Well, UA would probably base their CPT/JNB flights out of IAD or JFK using 747-400s exclusively, since the 747 is the most logical airplane to use in a direct flight situation like this.

    IAD yes, JFK never. Remember that UA has pulled down all international flying out of JFK including LHR and NRT. All they have left is a handful of domestic routes.
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    2travel2know
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Sun Mar 04, 2007 12:14 pm

    Do UA still has the Brazil-South Africa 5th rights the airline inherited from Pan Am?
    If they still do and wish to fly to JNB (most likely than CPT) then a stop in REC could be better than a stop somewhere in Africa.
    Even if almost all the U.S. slots on the U.S. - Brazil Bilateral are taken, Brazil may not object to grant UA REC as an stop since they're trying to get international airlines interested in destinations other than GRU and GIG.
    For AA, MIA-REC-JNB could be interesting too.
    However, In any case, UA or AA to South Africa via Brazil, I've my doubts on the possible traffic between REC and JNB.
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Sun Mar 04, 2007 12:56 pm

    Quoting PanAm747 (Thread starter):
    Could AA make a MIA-JNB-CPT-MIA routing work?

    They can with the 787.  Wink
     
    worldtraveler
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Sun Mar 04, 2007 1:14 pm

    Quoting Evan767 (Reply 1):
    Passengers flying JNB-ATL and ATL-JNB on DL are not allowed to deplane in Dakar. Only those passengers traveling ATL-DKR and JNB-DKR are allowed to deplane.

    DL may not allow JNB - ATL passengers to deplane at DKR but it is a full revenue stop. DL has local traffic rights on both the ATL-DKR and the DKR-JNB legs. DL could very well connect passengers at DKR to other cities in Africa even if they did not have local traffic rights on other segments beyond DKR since int'l aviation agreements almost all allow an airline to connect its own passengers on its own flights in a foreign city. They keep the DKR stop to a minimum because most pax are transitting and it reduces their total travel time (and DL's competitiveness) but DL has every right to take as much time in DKR if there is a market for other passengers to transfer there.

    However, my gut says that DL would use a gateway other than DKR if they developed more flights deeper into Africa from west Africa

    Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 9):
    Do UA still has the Brazil-South Africa 5th rights the airline inherited from Pan Am?

    1st, it is not certain that the same rights PA held are still available because treaties change....

    2nd, it is not certain whether DL or UA holds the 5th freedom rights if they do exist. DL holds most of PA's route authority across the Atlantic except for to LHR. UA acquired the South America rights. Because this involves both regions, it's possible the 5th freedom authority is not held by either. Since DL bought its transatlantic routes first, they probably would have taken as much as they could although the answer is theoretical without a route application from either airline to exercise the route... the DOT grants awards only when they are requested.

    3rd, unused route authority doesn't remain an airline's to keep if it is not used. the US DOT generally considers a route dormant and available for reassignment to another airline if it is not used. UA has lost several series of S. American slots to DL (for Brazil) and to CO (for EZE) service because UA was not using its full allotment. Regardless of who held Brazil - S. Africa authority in 1991, the authority is dormant now and would probably trigger a route case if more than one airline - including those other than DL or UA - requested authority to use it.
     
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Sun Mar 04, 2007 3:51 pm

    United Airlines holds Pan Am's old Brazil-South Africa rights but does not use them and i doubt they ever will.
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    commavia
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Sun Mar 04, 2007 3:57 pm

    Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 11):
    DL holds most of PA's route authority across the Atlantic except for to LHR. UA acquired the South America rights.

    Correction: Delta holds most of Pan Am's route authorities to Europe. To my knowledge, the first Delta-Pan Am agreement worked out in the 1991 (pre-bankruptcy) did not include any of Pan Am's African route authorities, and only covered the route authorities from the U.S. to Europe (sans Heathrow, of course). I could be wrong, but I don't believe Delta got Pan Am's dormant Africa route rights, and if they did, it certainly was not the same ones United definitely did acquire from Pan Am at a different time, and still retains today.

    Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 11):
    unused route authority doesn't remain an airline's to keep if it is not used. the US DOT generally considers a route dormant and available for reassignment to another airline if it is not used.

    Sometimes.

    Your summarization generally only applies if the unutilized authorities are in a competitive market that other airlines want to enter. United lost its Brazil and Argentina frequencies because its competitors wanted them. United hasn't lost its South Africa rights because, at least up to now, nobody has ever bothered to contest them and ask for them instead.
     
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Mon Mar 05, 2007 6:00 am

    Quoting Commavia (Reply 13):

    Your summarization generally only applies if the unutilized authorities are in a competitive market that other airlines want to enter. United lost its Brazil and Argentina frequencies because its competitors wanted them. United hasn't lost its South Africa rights because, at least up to now, nobody has ever bothered to contest them and ask for them instead.

    Correct. Most unused route authorities do not expire. The only way UA will lose it's Brazil-South Africa rights is if another airline comes along and asks for them. Until then, UA's Brazil-South Africa rights are dormant and have no expiration date.
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    2travel2know
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Mon Mar 05, 2007 6:29 am

    Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 14):
    Correct. Most unused route authorities do not expire. The only way UA will lose it's Brazil-South Africa rights is if another airline comes along and asks for them. Until then, UA's Brazil-South Africa rights are dormant and have no expiration date.

    If AA wants to fly somewhere in northern Brazil, Shouldn't that be the way to get the slots from the Brazilians?, 1st, AA is to ask US DOT for UA unused Brazil-South Africa authority and then AA ask Brazil for a "tech stop" in REC enroute to JNB. Since Brazil is also interested to have airlines fly to Brazilian destinations other than GRU/GIG, specially in the Northeast, there's a chance AA could get away with it.
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    28thguy
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Mon Mar 05, 2007 7:54 am

    Given visa requirements for U.S. citizens implemented by Brazil in recent years (as retaliation for U.S. efforts to reduce illegal immigration from Brazil), it would be very uncompetitive to route any service U.S.-Brazil-South Africa for which Americans presumably would need a Brazilian travel visa to transit to South Africa.
     
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Mon Mar 05, 2007 9:15 am

    Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 15):

    If AA wants to fly somewhere in northern Brazil, Shouldn't that be the way to get the slots from the Brazilians?, 1st, AA is to ask US DOT for UA unused Brazil-South Africa authority and then AA ask Brazil for a "tech stop" in REC enroute to JNB. Since Brazil is also interested to have airlines fly to Brazilian destinations other than GRU/GIG, specially in the Northeast, there's a chance AA could get away with it.

    I doubt it, because the idea of routing a USA-South Africa flight through Brazil doesn't make sense. It would have worked two decades ago, it won't work now. It would put an airline at a competitive disadvantage to others and the stop in Brazil, unless it were Sao Paulo or Rio de Janeiro, would do little to help fill the plane (which doesn't need a stop in Brazil to fill in the first place). The chance of AA or anyone else routing a US-South Africa flight via Brazil is pretty much zero.
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    2travel2know
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Mon Mar 05, 2007 9:46 am

    Quoting 28thguy (Reply 16):
    Given visa requirements for U.S. citizens implemented by Brazil in recent years (as retaliation for U.S. efforts to reduce illegal immigration from Brazil), it would be very uncompetitive to route any service U.S.-Brazil-South Africa for which Americans presumably would need a Brazilian travel visa to transit to South Africa.

    U.S. citizens don't need to hold Brazilian visas when they transit in the same aircraft or transit without needing to go thru immigration customs. For an example, a U.S. passport holder don't need a visa when travelling between Europe and Argentina if his/her flight stops in GRU.

    Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 17):
    It would put an airline at a competitive disadvantage to others and the stop in Brazil, unless it were Sao Paulo or Rio de Janeiro, would do little to help fill the plane (which doesn't need a stop in Brazil to fill in the first place).

    I see the competitive disadvantage of a one-stop service vs SA non-stops from JFK, bur how could a "dream" AA MIA-REC-JNB be at a competitive disadvantage with a DL ATL-DKR-JNB flight, the only other South Africa flight from the Southern U.S. which is also a one-stop flight?
    Assuming the stop would be REC, isn't REC and surrounding cities (NAT, MCZ, FOR even SSA) more affluent than DKR?
    IMHO, the only major problem for AA flying to JNB via REC would be the loads between REC and JNB, as I believe there's not that much traffic demand between Northeastern Brazil (except SSA) and Southern Africa (except LAD and maybe MPM)..
    AA's desire to serve other Brazilian cities I've seen so many times on other topics related to U.S. Airlines services to Brazil, But now It's strange to read that AA wouldn't take an advantage of a stop in Northeastern Brazil enroute to South Africa if given the opportunity to do it..
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    MAH4546
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Mon Mar 05, 2007 12:00 pm

    Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 18):
    I see the competitive disadvantage of a one-stop service vs SA non-stops from JFK, bur how could a "dream" AA MIA-REC-JNB be at a competitive disadvantage with a DL ATL-DKR-JNB flight, the only other South Africa flight from the Southern U.S. which is also a one-stop flight?

    Mapping them, I overestimated how far out of the way Recife is to Jo'Burg, and it isn't quite that far away as I thought, so it is more feasable than I thought.

    However, I still don't think it will ever happen. The main reason is that, in the end, you can collect much higher fares doing a routing via West Africa, especially Lagos. Also, since there is a high yielding market for West Africa-Jo'Burg, there wouldn't be any fare-dumping to try to sell cheap seats on that sector, as opposed to what AA would have to do with Recife-Jo'Burg. I really don't think it will ever happen. AA is not so desperate to fly to Recife that they would fly Recife-Jo'Burg.
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Tue Mar 06, 2007 1:56 pm

    And there is a growing competition on Brazil-JNB (OceanAir could join the route very soon) which also will not help an hipotetical flight thru Brazil, even if it's routes thru GIG where there are no flights today to JNB.

    And as per Mark comments, it's a waste nowadays, better just to use on a US-Brazil, if it's possible.

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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Tue Mar 06, 2007 3:52 pm

    Quoting WestJetForLife (Reply 7):
    Well, UA would probably base their CPT/JNB flights out of IAD or JFK using 747-400s exclusively, since the 747 is the most logical airplane to use in a direct flight situation like this.

    AA is a little more tricky. Since they do not use 747-400s, they'd have to use a fuel stop somewhere in Africa (probably DKR like Delta does) using 777s.

    Not to be rude, but I was thinking this, and then I checked the boeing website. The 777-200ER has a longer range than the 744. While I understand that UAs 772ERs use crappy PW engines that are even further derated from the 90k thrust with which they were delivered, but their 744s are full range models, as far as I understand. This doesn't make sense though as if the 744 has a range of 7300 nm, as per the Boeing website, with the RR 892 powered 777-200ERs of AA the range should be about 7700nm. i realize there are ETOPS regulations, but those are in the process of being relaxed, so I think if UAs 744s can make the hop, AA's 777s should be able to.

    P.S.I remember stories of UA having to tow their 744 to the runway to conserve fuel on the ORD-HKG route, etc. I know that has nothing to do with the topic at hand, I just thought it was interesting.
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Tue Mar 06, 2007 7:22 pm

    Quoting Commavia (Reply 13):
    Correction: Delta holds most of Pan Am's route authorities to Europe. To my knowledge, the first Delta-Pan Am agreement worked out in the 1991 (pre-bankruptcy) did not include any of Pan Am's African route authorities, and only covered the route authorities from the U.S. to Europe (sans Heathrow, of course). I could be wrong, but I don't believe Delta got Pan Am's dormant Africa route rights, and if they did, it certainly was not the same ones United definitely did acquire from Pan Am at a different time, and still retains today.

    I believe the DL acquisition of Pan Am's transatlantic route authorities included some Africa (such as NBO) rights as well; PA was still flying to NBO via FRA when DL acquired the FRA hub in 1991.
     
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Tue Mar 06, 2007 8:19 pm

    Whatever the case, it would be great to see more US carriers come to sunny SA.

    Any idea how DL's route to JNB's doing?
     
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Wed Mar 07, 2007 12:34 am

    Quoting AA777223 (Reply 21):
    i realize there are ETOPS regulations, but those are in the process of being relaxed, so I think if UAs 744s can make the hop, AA's 777s should be able to

    AA's 777 have a greater range than non-ER 747-400s. The only problem, as you said, is with ETOPS restrictions. There is a huge spot in the South Atlantic that is restricted for aircraft flying with ETOPS 138. Until American's 777s (unless they have already) are allowed to fly through that big spot, Miami-Cape Town is out the 777's normal (unrestricted) range.

    Quoting AA777223 (Reply 21):
    I remember stories of UA having to tow their 744 to the runway to conserve fuel on the ORD-HKG route, etc. I know that has nothing to do with the topic at hand, I just thought it was interesting.

    That had more to do with the fact that ORD-HKG could not overfly a significant portion of Russia. When Russia loosened restrictions on its airspace, United ORD-HKG no longer needed to be tugged to the Runway.
     
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Wed Mar 07, 2007 2:25 am

    In 1991 Delta acquired the Pan Am FAMs including all of Europe (except UK authority already sold to United), all the "beyond" rights to the Middle East and India, except LHR-DEL, and LHR-Germany, which had gone to UA in the LHR package, and, interestingly, the FAM via the Azores and Casablanca, interestingly enough, to all African points including JNB and CPT via West Africa and to NBO via West Africa, which Pan Am flew before the Acker era when NBO was switched to via FRA and flown with the A310 under Plaskett. Flights 180/181, 188/189, et. al. used to serve all the various African stations at one time once a week or bi-weekly; the South African services were curtailed when the USA put strong economic sanctions against the former apartheid white South African government.

    Originally, of course, just before WWII Pan Am briefly flew the Boeing 314 "Capetown Clipper" via many stops including the soon-to-be important Fisherman's Lake in West Africa. it came to be that the major supply route from Miami to India that became so vital to the war effort was flown down to Trinidad and Brazil, thence Ascension Island to Africa, and across to Egypt, the Arabian Peninsula and South Asia. Quite a long trip. It is said that Pan Am's African Division (Pan Africa) was very helpful in getting supplies to Montgomery and the Eighth Army in Egypt prior to the battle of El Alemein.

    Yes, Pan Am flew 707 equipment from Brazil to South Africa with MIA and JFK crews back in the day. Yes, United holds this dormant authority. Delta holds the rest.
     
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    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Wed Mar 07, 2007 4:02 am

    Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 24):

    Thanks for the help Elmo. With the new relaxation of ETOPs rules will we soon see this spot disappear or shrink significantly, or could AA have the ETOPS ratings of their 777s increased? If they are only ETOPS 138 certified, that seems awfully low for what are fairly capable aircraft otherwise.
    A318/19/20/21, A300, A332/3, A343/6, A388, L1011, DC-9, DC-10, MD-11, MD-80, B722, B732/3/4/5/7/8/9, B743/4/4M, B752/3, B762/3/4, B772/E/W, B788/9, F-100, CRJ-200/700/900, ERJ-135/145/175, DH-8, ATR-72, DO-328, BAE-146
     
    aal0616
    Posts: 217
    Joined: Thu Jul 13, 2006 1:16 am

    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Wed Mar 07, 2007 4:58 am

    AAL plans to serve northeastern Brazil, "if and when," with winglet 752 equipment from MIA. There has been speculation but no evidence among 772 people that there are any plans being explored to serve South Africa via Brazil using the 772 or 763. Because of the ETOPS restrictions that have been mentioned, service would have to be operated in the near term with flag stops at the locations you have all mentioned, even from MIA. It is more or less assumed that MIA and not JFK would be the site from which possible African service would be launched, due to SAA already flying to JFK, among other things. That said, JFK remains a remote possibility. If MIA-CPT-JNB talk advances to plans, the MIA crew base would be augmented, legal steps might be taken to try to tweak the ETOPS restrictions and equipment would have to be pulled from elsewhere, and you can all do the math regarding the fleet utilization. Perhaps there would be a 763 implementation for a while because of having to stop anyway, but that is not the first choice. In any event, with potentially newer aircraft coming on line like the 787, investment in West African flag stops would have to be justified as a near-term necessity rather than a long-term commitment. And, in all scenarios, JNB would need to be served on most or all trips.
     
    MAH4546
    Posts: 24558
    Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Wed Mar 07, 2007 5:07 am

    Quoting AAL0616 (Reply 27):
    AAL plans to serve northeastern Brazil, "if and when," with winglet 752 equipment from MIA.

    When will hopefully be this fall. AA has reportedly applied with ANAC to begin daily, non-stop service between Miami and Salvador da Bahia. Redeye to SSA; daylight from SSA. Hopefully ANAC is nice and grants them the exemption. Also, thanks for the info regarding AA possibly flying to South Africa. I'm keeping my fingers crossed, but it totally goes against AA's conservative philosophy. That being said, I really think AA needs to move on from that, and South Africa is a step in the right direction.
    a.
     
    LipeGIG
    Posts: 5050
    Joined: Tue May 03, 2005 7:33 am

    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Wed Mar 07, 2007 5:37 am

    AA should need at least 20 hours to run a flight to South Africa from Brazil which means they should need 1 more aircraft to do the flight which is for sure better against two or three required for a entirely new flight from US.

    Also, wherever they decide to fly from: MIA, JFK or DFW, they for sure will decide in favor of São Paulo which means they can provide connections for their JFK, MIA or DFW customers.

    And i also hope ANAC grant the necessary slots in order AA can begin their SSA-MIA service very soon.

    Felipe
    New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
     
    MAH4546
    Posts: 24558
    Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Wed Mar 07, 2007 5:45 am

    Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 29):

    Also, wherever they decide to fly from: MIA, JFK or DFW, they for sure will decide in favor of São Paulo which means they can provide connections for their JFK, MIA or DFW customers.

    AA service to Africa, 99% likely, would be from Miami. The 1% chance is that it would be from New York City. It would never be from Dallas. Also, despite the fact that Sao Paulo would be the market to provide strong feed and local traffic, for competitive reasons, if AA were to decide to fly to South Africa via Brazil, it would without a doubt be from Northeast Brazil because of the time savings.

    Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 29):
    And i also hope ANAC grant the necessary slots in order AA can begin their SSA-MIA service very soon.

    I know this is going off topic, but any updates?
    a.
     
    ConcordeBoy
    Posts: 16852
    Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2001 8:04 am

    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Wed Mar 07, 2007 6:13 am

    Quoting WestJetForLife (Reply 7):
    AA is a little more tricky. Since they do not use 747-400s, they'd have to use a fuel stop somewhere in Africa (probably DKR like Delta does) using 777s.

    Um, you do realize that AA's 656K 772ERs have more range than any form of 744, right?

    Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 24):
    AA's 777 have a greater range than non-ER 747-400s.

    ...or any -ER for that matter.

    Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 24):
    The only problem, as you said, is with ETOPS restrictions.

    Which, if S.A. cooperates... won't be an issue for much longer
    Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
     
    LipeGIG
    Posts: 5050
    Joined: Tue May 03, 2005 7:33 am

    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Wed Mar 07, 2007 6:54 am

    Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 30):
    I know this is going off topic, but any updates?

    The ATC crisis has delayed ANAC plans concerning to this, but the government of Bahia is announcing without AA formal confirmation that a MIA-SSA will begin during 3rd quarter. The fact that the Government of Bahia is now controlled by the same political party as the Federal Government (Workers Party) is HELPING a lot on this issue!

    Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 30):
    for competitive reasons, if AA were to decide to fly to South Africa via Brazil, it would without a doubt be from Northeast Brazil because of the time savings.

    If they do not look for Sao Paulo Mark, i really believe GIG could be more interesting to route a 777 from MIA to JNB. Would be the necessary improvement to Rio year-round plus a route not flew by any one else and JNB is closer to GIG than any other Brazilian city. It's just my opinion.

    Felipe
    New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
     
    MAH4546
    Posts: 24558
    Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Wed Mar 07, 2007 7:17 am

    Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 32):
    If they do not look for Sao Paulo Mark, i really believe GIG could be more interesting to route a 777 from MIA to JNB. Would be the necessary improvement to Rio year-round plus a route not flew by any one else and JNB is closer to GIG than any other Brazilian city. It's just my opinion.

    I agree it would work better than Sao Paulo, but the priority here would be to get passengers to South Africa on a routing that is competitive with Delta and South African Airways' stops in Dakar. Unfortunately, Rio de Janeiro is not compeitive. Only a stop in Northeast Brazil, such as Recife or Fortaleza, would be compeitive. A stop in Recife saves travel time over a stop in Dakar, but a stop in Rio or Sao Paulo would add travel time. A stop in Rio de Janeiro would add 500 miles and probably 1-1.5 hours travel time over a stop in Recife. In addition, Recife would be an easier airport to operate into/out of, and while there is limited travel between Recife and South Africa, this might turn out to be an advantage, because with less people getting on and off, the plane can turn around quicker.

    Now, while it is certainly true that AA could outweight that negative by picking up strong local traffic between Rio or Sao Paulo and South Africa, AA doesn't want to go for that local traffic, they want to go for the USA-ZA traffic. I do agree with you that an MIA-GIG-JNB routing would be feasable, but I don't think it is the best option for them. I personally think the best option, by far, is via Lagos. If via Brazil, Recife gives them a good time savings.
    a.
     
    aal0616
    Posts: 217
    Joined: Thu Jul 13, 2006 1:16 am

    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Wed Mar 07, 2007 8:09 am

    LipeGIG, you know, when Pan Am flew 707s across the South Atlantic, the route was from GIG; then again, in those days, GIG was their primary Brazilian destination. So there is historic precedent for GIG (and it is more fun as a layover, not that anyone would make that the selection criteria)! However, I would not hold my breath about AAL picking up the dormant authority from United, nor, for that matter, AAL prioritizing any routing or equipment to JNB ahead of other potential, profitable (key word) uses for the 772.

    Yes, MAH4546, the AAL 752 flights down oernight and back daylight are definitely planned, ready and awaiting approval; and, yes, the word is that the ATC "situation" is the holdup. The state government of Bahia may be optimistic but they probably know a lot more than we do and they are in the driver's seat. Look for TAM to expand their service beyond their one/two stops via MAO as well. No word on any possible cooperative or code share arrangements.
     
    MAH4546
    Posts: 24558
    Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Wed Mar 07, 2007 8:12 am

    Quoting AAL0616 (Reply 34):
    Look for TAM to expand their service beyond their one/two stops via MAO as well. No word on any possible cooperative or code share arrangements.

    Yes, that is what I have been hearing too. TAM would like to add a fourth daily flight to MIA that would be a redeye to GIG in both directions, and a fifth daily that would be a daylight to GIG, but stop at different points depending on the day, such as MIA-REC-GIG on MoWe, MIA-FOR-GIG on TuTh, etc., etc.
    a.
     
    WestJetForLife
    Posts: 704
    Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2005 3:37 am

    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Wed Mar 07, 2007 9:48 am

    Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 31):
    Um, you do realize that AA's 656K 772ERs have more range than any form of 744, right?

    Oh yes, I forgot. AA purchased 772ERs.

    Like I said above, I know little about AA's operations. Thank you for correcting me.

    Cheers
    I need a drink.
     
    2travel2know
    Posts: 2236
    Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2005 7:05 am

    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Wed Mar 07, 2007 9:52 am

    Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 33):
    Unfortunately, Rio de Janeiro is not compeitive. Only a stop in Northeast Brazil, such as Recife or Fortaleza, would be compeitive. A stop in Recife saves travel time over a stop in Dakar, but a stop in Rio or Sao Paulo would add travel time. A stop in Rio de Janeiro would add 500 miles and probably 1-1.5 hours travel time over a stop in Recife. In addition, Recife would be an easier airport to operate into/out of, and while there is limited travel between Recife and South Africa, this might turn out to be an advantage, because with less people getting on and off, the plane can turn around quicker.

    If AA wants to fly MIA-JNB via REC, a B767 could make it and AA could even add a B757 JFK-REC to conect to/from their own South Africa flight..
    Flying JNB via SSA, may add some flying time over the REC route and in this case, there would be quite a number of passengers getting on/off SSA. Also I didn't check yet, but there might be an ETOPS issue for flights between SSA and South Africa (CPT/JNB).
    I don't work for COPA Airlines!
     
    MAH4546
    Posts: 24558
    Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Wed Mar 07, 2007 10:04 am

    Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 37):
    AA could even add a B757 JFK-REC to conect to/from their own South Africa flight..

    That flight would bleed money like you wouldn't believe. There is absolutely no point to JFK-REC on AA.
    a.
     
    2travel2know
    Posts: 2236
    Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2005 7:05 am

    RE: Hypothetical UA/AA To South Africa Questions

    Thu Mar 08, 2007 12:35 am

    Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 38):
    That flight would bleed money like you wouldn't believe. There is absolutely no point to JFK-REC on AA.

    Unless continues to SSA (or CPT !) and is to also feed a the REC-JNB leg of AA MIA-JNB flight? But JFK-REC-CPT on a B757? I don't think so.
    Really, if AA is to start SSA, then a MIA-SSA-JNB route on B767 may be interesting. It''ll be like shooting 2 birds with the same bullet.
    I don't work for COPA Airlines!

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