AviationAddict
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Future Of 777-200/-200ER?

Mon Mar 05, 2007 8:04 am

Hey all,

what do you think the future of the 777-200/-200ER will be now that the -200LR is available and the 787 on it's way (not to mention the, at least in my opinion, sudden jump in popularity of the 777-300)? I'd think the -200 types will continue to sell in the short term, but once the 787 it's the market the -200/-200ER are probably dead in the water. Any opinions?

I know this topic has been discussed several times before, but I haven't seen it for a while and now that the 787 is making clear progress I figured I'd bring it up again.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Future Of 777-200/-200ER?

Mon Mar 05, 2007 8:07 am

Well the 777-200 has been dead for some time. The A333 has taken over her market.

As to the 777-200ER, we shall see both add-on and new orders for the next decade or so, slowly giving way to the 777-200LR, the 787-10, and the A350XWB-900.
 
roseflyer
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RE: Future Of 777-200/-200ER?

Mon Mar 05, 2007 8:18 am

I definitely agree that the 777-200 market is virtually dead. It is no better than the 767-200. The plane lacks range an the airlines that operate short haul 777 routes seen to not be ordering tons more.

The 777-200ER will probably still see some orders as existing customers supplement their fleet as they need more planes for growth. I would doubt that there would be many new customers.
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Stitch
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RE: Future Of 777-200/-200ER?

Mon Mar 05, 2007 8:24 am

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 2):
I would doubt that there would be many new customers.

Probably not, since a 772LR costs little more then a 772ER (about $3 million per AVITAS) and that is chump-change considering the improvement a 772LR offers in economics. So if you're "starting fresh", the 772LR is a better choice.

Where I could see new-build 772ERs going to new customers would be with airlines that do not fly the 777 and are looking to take 772ERs from current operators as they are replaced with 787s and A350XWBs. As such, they would probably want 772ERs to have commonality with those eventual additions.

[Edited 2007-03-05 00:30:22]
 
AirbusA6
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RE: Future Of 777-200/-200ER?

Mon Mar 05, 2007 8:44 am

If I have a large fleet of 772ERs would I want the complication of a small fleet of 772LRs, especially if I don't use GE90s?

It is notable, that BA specifically have gone for additional 772ERs, and they actually use some GE90s. Delta have switched, but then they're 772ER fleet is tiny.

Was NZ the last new 777 operator to choose the 772ER?
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WestWing
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RE: Future Of 777-200/-200ER?

Mon Mar 05, 2007 8:57 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
since a 772LR costs little more then a 772ER (about $3 million per AVITAS)

The $3 million diff seems really low. The "list price" on Boeing's website has the price difference nearer $30 million.


On the topic of the non-ER -200s, Line #635 (for JAL) will probably be the final 777-200 to be assembled.

[Edited 2007-03-05 01:06:41]
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calpsafltskeds
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RE: Future Of 777-200/-200ER?

Mon Mar 05, 2007 9:59 am

The 772ER can handle almost any route being flown today. The 772LR will allow for a few additional routes, but at what cost?

I believe the 772LR is a niche aircraft that may go the way of the 747SP as it has the engines of the 773ER with a lot fewer seats. While the 787-8 and 9 have fewer seats, they both have longer range than the 772ER, meaning it will negate some of the routes that the 772LR will operate vs. the 772ER.

The loss of 6 LD3's for fuel additionally makes the aircraft viable only on niche ultra-long haul markets. If an airline can find a ultra-long haul route with dense cargo, then maybe it's a good way to go. But, will a carrier be able to find several of these markets so they can purchase a subfleet of these aircraft??
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Stitch
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RE: Future Of 777-200/-200ER?

Mon Mar 05, 2007 11:20 am

Quoting WestWing (Reply 5):
The $3 million diff seems really low. The "list price" on Boeing's website has the price difference nearer $30 million.

Agreed, but AVAC has 772LR discounts at 42% vs. 35% for the 772ER, Since 772ER's are mostly "topping off" orders from existing options, pricing power may not have eroded as much.
 
Carpethead
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RE: Future Of 777-200/-200ER?

Mon Mar 05, 2007 12:24 pm

Quoting WestWing (Reply 5):
On the topic of the non-ER -200s, Line #635 (for JAL) will probably be the final 777-200 to be assembled

Outside of Japan, that's probably a safe bet, but so long as the Everett line is producing 777s, NH or JL may opt for non-ER 772/773s when the 744D replacement is due early next decade.

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 4):
Was NZ the last new 777 operator to choose the 772ER?

That currently would belong to TAAG Angola.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 2):
definitely agree that the 777-200 market is virtually dead. It is no better than the 767-200.

Huh? When was the last pax 762 made? When was the last 772/ER delivered? Big difference if you care to look it up.
While 772/ERs aren't being delivered in great numbers over previous years, they will be manufactured here and there until the end of the decade. Beyond that, it is difficult to see, but as long as the 777 line is cranking 772s can definitely manufactured for whoever wants one.