amirs
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Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 1:49 am

Who are these big unidentified customers?

September 15, 2006 Unidentified customer 11

September 26, 2006 Unidentified customer 6

October 4, 2006 Unidentified customer 10
 
AV8AJET
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 1:54 am

One could be DL (I hope!) when they come out of bk in June '07.
"To fly or not to fly there is no question!"
 
PRAirbus
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 2:08 am

Most likely AA is definitely one.
 
EI321
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 2:11 am

Maybe, but why would DL / AA not announce them and why so few?
 
NYC777
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 2:14 am

I heard the one for 10 787s is for Oman Air. The 11 could be for VN exercising options.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
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fxramper
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 2:16 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 3):
Maybe, but why would DL / AA not announce them and why so few?

Neither of those orders are for AA or DL; that's why.  yes 
 
amirs
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 2:26 am

Maybe one of those is for LY, its about the time LY was suppose to pay for their options. Maybe they lied that they cancelled options, just to be in better position facing the unions.
 
krisyyz
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 2:31 am

Most likely not AC, but AC does have 46 options for the B787.



KrisYYZ
 
columba
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 2:32 am

Tuifly has placed an large order for Boeing aircraft which included long haul aircraft as well so some of these unidentified customers might be Tui.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
sstsomeday
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 2:41 am

These don't feel like big orders to me. A big order would be 50 from American AIrlines or Delta or United, or something like that. (Not that they have the cash).

Quoting KrisYYZ (Reply 7):
Most likely not AC, but AC does have 46 options for the B787

Perhaps most American airlines, still strapped for cash, will order the 787 this way, i.e. take a lot of options and then turn them into firm orders in smaller increments?
I come in peace
 
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LTU932
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 3:43 am

I hope those 10 787s ordered in October are ordered by LH. I'm still confident LH and DE will go Boeing for their future medium to longhaul fleet, along with the 747-8Is they ordered not too long ago.
 
NYC777
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 3:46 am

In the end I think these UFO orders will probably be revealed at Paris at the end of June.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
columba
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 3:49 am

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 10):
I hope those 10 787s ordered in October are ordered by LH. I'm still confident LH and DE will go Boeing for their future medium to longhaul fleet, along with the 747-8Is they ordered not too long ago.

It is hard to believe that LH did not make any agreements with Boeing regarding the 787 as they agreed on the 747-8 order in December. Just for the case they will buy.

[Edited 2007-03-08 20:14:07]
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
boeingfever777
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 4:10 am

Quoting AV8AJET (Reply 1):
One could be DL

Doubtful...

Quoting PRAirbus (Reply 2):
Most likely AA is definitely one.

Very doubtful...

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 11):
In the end I think these UFO orders will probably be revealed at Paris at the end of June.

100% correct!

These are not major orders. These are either 1.) options being taken up or 2.) small carrier buying a few.
I would not see DL buying 787 anytime this yr and as for AA... If they do it will be a big order like 25+ firm.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
 
boeingfever777
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 4:12 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 4):
The 11 could be for VN exercising options.

The agreement also includes purchase rights for 11 additional airplanes in the 2010-2013 time frame.
http://www.boeing.com/news/releases/2005/q2/nr_050621g.html

They taking them early?
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
 
flyorski
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 4:13 am

Quoting Columba (Reply 12):
It is hard to believe that LH did not made any agreements with Boeing regarding the 787 as they agreed on the 747-8 order in Decembe even if they only had reserved delivery slots just for the case they will buy

I agree, I think we will see LH with the 787 sooner than we might think........
"None are more hopelessly enslaved, than those who falsly believe they are free" -Goethe
 
NYC777
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 4:16 am

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 14):
The agreement also includes purchase rights for 11 additional airplanes in the 2010-2013 time frame.
http://www.boeing.com/news/releases/2005/q2/nr_050621g.html

They taking them early?

I think the 2010-2013 time frame are the delivery slots that VN has for those options. I think they exercised those options on thosdelivery slots and that's the 11 that showed up as a UFO. I think they're probably waiting for the final govt. approvals as well as EX-IM financing before going public.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
boeingfever777
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 4:23 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 16):

Makes for a good case. I'll agree.

You think Boeing said take them now or wait a long time cause they got some new major 787 orders coming from other carriers?

ie: BA, IB, LH, EK, or AA.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
 
NYC777
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 4:27 am

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 17):
Makes for a good case. I'll agree.

You think Boeing said take them now or wait a long time cause they got some new major 787 orders coming from other carriers?

ie: BA, IB, LH, EK, or AA.

Yeah a lot of purchasers who have options are begining to feel the pressure to exercise now or lose the slots. Especially with the A350 situation, those holding options are going to be more inclined to exercise them and they have if you take a look at the 787 order book.

I think Boeing will increase production initally to 10/month and then probably to about 14 to 15/month in 2010. I talked to someone and they think they can go to 20/month.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
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fxramper
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 4:29 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 18):
I talked to someone and they think they can go to 20/month.

They can always open a second line.  yes 
 
boeingfever777
Posts: 1990
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 4:31 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 18):
I talked to someone and they think they can go to 20/month.

Can the supply chain meet that demand and would not they need another 747-4J6/LCF?
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
 
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turk223
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 4:51 am

My thought is that Avianca is being secretive about the 767 replacement that has been talked about for a few months - It might be one of the unidentified?
 
NYC777
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 4:59 am

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 20):

Can the supply chain meet that demand and would not they need another 747-4J6/LCF?

Well Alenia says they can meet 10/month and they even said they were talking with Boeing about going higher than 10/month. Boeing would probably need another 2 - 3 LCFs and that wouldn't be too hard to procure. Heck they can sell some 748Is to an current 744 operator and buy the 2 or 3 that they need. They might have to pay slightly higher than residual prices but heck they can afford it!
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
naritaflyer
Posts: 259
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 5:07 am

Okay, let's summarise what's been said so far. I identified all those carriers: DL, AA, AC, VN, Tui, LH, DE, IB, BA, EK, LY, Avianca. 12 in total and there were 22 responses to this thread.

Basically no one has a clue and that's understandable. Unless one is in the inside how can you know who is it for other than open ended speculation?

Unless you know from good sources who the UFOs are for...
 
sebring
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 5:11 am

Quoting KrisYYZ (Reply 7):
Most likely not AC, but AC does have 46 options for the B787.

And it intends to exercise many of them.

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 18):

Yeah a lot of purchasers who have options are begining to feel the pressure to exercise now or lose the slots.

You don't necessarily lose slots unless you fail to exercise options by a required date. In Air Canada's case, it has fixed exercise/delivery dates on many of its options. There is nothing Boeing can do to make AC commit early unless it offers AC earlier delivery dates (which, by the way, AC would take). Otherwise, AC will wait until just before the exercise date because when you convert an option into a firm order you have to make a significant deposit on each aircraft. AC has no incentive to lay down cash early. With its 777 order, it had to commit to a specific number of 777s, but did not have to make a final commitment on how much of each derivative to order. Initially, AC ordered more 777-200LRs than 777-300ERs, but would later change those orders at specific finalization deadlines to take more 777-300ERs than 200LRs. The reason is simple: the 200LRs will cost AC about $10 million less per fin. The initial order required deposits based on the derivative initially ordered, but gave AC the right by specific finalization dates to switch each aircraft to another 777 derivative. Therefore, AC could put down smaller cash deposits initially by specifying 200LRs, then converting those to 777-300ERs at the last possible moment. So airlines are very conscious of the specific terms of options. I don't know if all carriers have the flexibility AC has in its Boeing order, but let's assume the bigger carriers with the buying power do have it.
 
CV747F
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 5:30 am

My guess would be
* Sep 15 order for TUI together with 14 73G and 16 738 (both booked on Sep 16)
those would add up to be the 41 orders revealed by TUI in late December 06
* Sep 26 order for Avianca
* Oct 4 order for Vietnam Airlines
Cheers
CV747F
 
2wingtips
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 6:15 am

Quoting CV747F (Reply 25):
My guess would be
* Sep 15 order for TUI together with 14 73G and 16 738 (both booked on Sep 16)
those would add up to be the 41 orders revealed by TUI in late December 06
* Sep 26 order for Avianca
* Oct 4 order for Vietnam Airlines
Cheers
CV747F

Great summary. I think you may be 100% correct.
 
kbdude
Posts: 124
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 7:15 am

Just out of curiosity....

How about the 747-8 UFO & 777 UFO's.... can they be related in anyway to the 787 UFO's....?

Pics below are from the BOEING order & delivery webpage.

Big version: Width: 536 Height: 247 File size: 54kb


Big version: Width: 566 Height: 190 File size: 38kb


Big version: Width: 543 Height: 136 File size: 30kb



http://active.boeing.com/commercial/...definedselection.cfm&pageid=m15527
 
magyar
Posts: 528
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 7:47 am

I hate "unidentified" orders. I would not allow them
(neither for Airbus nor for Boeing). In PR sense you
have an order when costumers are willing to put their
name behind it. Otherwise, there is no way we know
that there is even a real costumer behind it. The
manufacturers maybe just confident that they can fill in
later; or otherwise they just have an "unidentified"
cancellation.
That is being said I DO NOT accuse Boeing NOT to have
costumers for these 787s! I am just allergic to this
PR trick which is prone to manipultaion!
 
2wingtips
Posts: 487
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 7:53 am

Quoting Magyar (Reply 28):
I hate "unidentified" orders. I would not allow them
(neither for Airbus nor for Boeing). In PR sense you
have an order when costumers are willing to put their
name behind it. Otherwise, there is no way we know
that there is even a real costumer behind it. The
manufacturers maybe just confident that they can fill in
later; or otherwise they just have an "unidentified"
cancellation.
That is being said I DO NOT accuse Boeing NOT to have
costumers for these 787s! I am just allergic to this
PR trick which is prone to manipultaion!

What a load of tripe. The customer chooses when to make the announcement. Boeing list them as orders when the contracts have been signed and payment made.
An announced order is as likely to be cancelled as an UFO one.
There clearly ARE real customers behind all these UFO orders.
 
AEROFAN
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 9:37 am

I hope one of those orders for VS
 
atmx2000
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 9:59 am

Quoting Magyar (Reply 28):
I hate "unidentified" orders. I would not allow them (neither for Airbus nor for Boeing). In PR sense you have an order when costumers are willing to put their name behind it. Otherwise, there is no way we knowthat there is even a real costumer behind it. The manufacturers maybe just confident that they can fill in later; or otherwise they just have an "unidentified" cancellation. That is being said I DO NOT accuse Boeing NOT to havecostumers for these 787s! I am just allergic to this PR trick which is prone to manipultaion!

Do you think every single firm contract in any industry has to be publicized so as to reveal the identity of the other party? There is no requirement for that. Boeing does want to indicate to shareholders and analysts what the status of its backlog is though. The Boeing orders page reflects firm, legally binding contracts. It reflects their bookkeeping and is not simply for PR purposes.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
elcapi1980
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 10:02 am

I hope is Avianca, 10 is enough for them to replace those old 767 for the international routes.............
I love you barranquilla!!!!!
 
CRJmx
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 10:40 am

Anyone ever think that some of the UFO's could be private customers, such as governments?
When it hits your lips, it's so good!!
 
boeingfever777
Posts: 1990
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 11:15 am

Quoting CRJmx (Reply 33):
Anyone ever think that some of the UFO's could be private customers, such as governments?

What gov. would order multiply 787's and for what reason?

These are no single orders.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
 
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Zkpilot
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 11:40 am

Could be NZ.... most observers believe that NZ will replace its 8x 772ER's with 787 (along with its already placed order of 789 to replace its 763ERs). I think NZ will hold off however for the 7810 to replace the 772ERs when 4 of them come off lease in 2012. A fleet of 8x789, 8x7810, 8x748I for longhaul ops seems a possible scenario... maybe even increase those 787 numbers to 10 or 12 per model.
56 types. 38 countries. 24 airlines.
 
flyabunch
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 11:45 am

Wow, the world sure is changing. When an order for 10 planes is considered "Big". I would think that an order for 25 or more would qualify as "big"...but that's just me.

Mike
 
2wingtips
Posts: 487
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 11:45 am

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 35):
A fleet of 8x789, 8x7810, 8x748I for longhaul ops seems a possible scenario... maybe even increase those 787 numbers to 10 or 12 per model.

Except that NZ will likely order the 773ER over the 748I.
 
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Zkpilot
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 11:59 am

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 37):
Except that NZ will likely order the 773ER over the 748I.

looking less and less likely although it was considered almost certain until a few months ago... The decision to purchase 773ER was supposed to go to the board recently but never made it, NZ is holding off to see more about the 748I development.
Basically it comes down to the 773ER being too small for some routes vs the 748I being too big for some... the tipping balance may be about certain routes being slot constrained (LHR in particular) and that the 748I may come in with better CASM than the 773ER. NZ has a couple of routes it would like to be able to do but the 773ER can't do because of ETOPS (ie South America, South Africa). NZ wants to have only 2 types in its longhaul fleet... 787 and one other. 789 and 7810 most likely but in future they may also get a few 788 and possibly lease 4 of them shortterm until the 789 arrives.
56 types. 38 countries. 24 airlines.
 
manni
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 12:25 pm

Quoting Naritaflyer (Reply 23):
Basically no one has a clue and that's understandable. Unless one is in the inside how can you know who is it for other than open ended speculation?

 checkmark 

If you asked the same question 3 days ago, how many would have known that 4 of them are for First Choice?
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sstsomeday
Posts: 821
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 12:59 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 18):
Especially with the A350 situation

What is the 350 "situation?" That it's due so many years later?

Quoting Sebring (Reply 24):
There is nothing Boeing can do to make AC commit early unless it offers AC earlier delivery dates

In the event that Boeing got a potential big order, and Air Canada could not be convinced to commit, might Boeing attempt to buy the options back from Air Canada in order to make a firm sale to another airline? Does that happen?

Quoting Magyar (Reply 28):
I hate "unidentified" orders. I would not allow them
(neither for Airbus nor for Boeing). In PR sense you
have an order when costumers are willing to put their
name behind it. Otherwise, there is no way we know
that there is even a real costumer behind it. The
manufacturers maybe just confident that they can fill in
later; or otherwise they just have an "unidentified"
cancellation.

Has that ever been proven to be the case; that unidentified orders have proven to be falsified for the purposes of manufacturer PR and marketing? I've never heard of it. I've only heard of intentions or promises to buy being logged as "firm orders" a little prematurely.  Wink

By the way, would somebody remind me the benefit to an airline of keeping a firm order a secret for a period of time?
I come in peace
 
columba
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RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 3:45 pm

Quoting CV747F (Reply 25):
* Sep 15 order for TUI together with 14 73G and 16 738 (both booked on Sep 16)
those would add up to be the 41 orders revealed by TUI in late December 06

You may be right with this one.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
sebring
Posts: 1321
Joined: Sat Jul 24, 2004 12:08 am

RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 4:10 pm

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 40):

In the event that Boeing got a potential big order, and Air Canada could not be convinced to commit, might Boeing attempt to buy the options back from Air Canada in order to make a firm sale to another airline? Does that happen?

Airlines with fixed delivery positions and a need for some cash flow have been known to sell them for a profit, although usually the sale is to another airline or a leasing company. In 1990, Canadian Airlines International conditionally sold two 744 delivery positions to American Airlines for use were AA to secure Japan rights. AA failed, and CP got stuck with the two 744s which it would regret owning because it was a small fleet that it couldn't afford. In Air Canada's case, I doubt they would sell 787 delivery positions. The fleet plan is to take the aircraft as per the negotiated delivery dates, or sooner.
 
CV747F
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2007 1:27 am

RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 5:38 pm

Quoting Kbdude (Reply 27):

Regarding the 777 UFO's
* the single 777ER from Oct 27 was originally thought to be for TAAG even though I believe it's for Austrian, as on Nov 1 they announced the restructuring of their long haul ops and I think both news are tied together
* for the 4 777LR I don't have a clue, Hamlet 69 for sure....
* the single 773ER probably a top up from AF, KLM or a leasing company
* the 6 777F could them be the confirmation of the China Southern order which was supposed to be part of a larger 777 order from China and already announced by the airline itself on Oct 16t on Reuters:
SHANGHAI, Oct 16 (Reuters) - China Southern Airlines Co. Ltd. and its subsidiary Xiamen Airlines have signed deals to buy a total of 12 planes from Boeing Co. , China Southern said on Monday.
China Southern agreed to buy six B777 freighters with a list price of $232 million each for delivery between November 2008 and July 2010, said the airline, which is China's largest by fleet size.
China Southern is the first Chinese company to buy the B777 freighter, paving the way for possible purchases by other domestic carriers.
The airline has said it is considering a cargo venture with Air France KLM , the world's biggest airline by revenue, and the B777 freighter's launch customer.

Cheers
CV747F
 
bcbhokie
Posts: 136
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:30 am

RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 6:45 pm

Quoting Kbdude (Reply 27):
Pics below are from the BOEING order & delivery webpage.

Wow, Unidentified Airlines is expanding rapidly - and they sure love their GE engines!  Big grin
 
Flying-Tiger
Posts: 3924
Joined: Mon Aug 23, 1999 5:35 am

RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 7:13 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 8):
Tuifly has placed an large order for Boeing aircraft which included long haul aircraft as well so some of these unidentified customers might be Tui.

That is anything, but certainly not sure. Recent reports indicate that TUI has no interest in long-haul flying and does not intend to add long-haul equipment to its fleet, thus the "inclusion" of long-haul equipment in last year´s order is very questionable IMO.
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
 
CV747F
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2007 1:27 am

RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 7:27 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 45):

the german divison of TUI (ex Hapag) has no interest in long-haul but don't forget the GB (ex Britannia) and F (ex Corsair) divisions. They already have and mostly likely will have long-haul ops where the 787 can be used.
 
columba
Posts: 5045
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2004 10:12 pm

RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 7:35 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 45):
That is anything, but certainly not sure. Recent reports indicate that TUI has no interest in long-haul flying and does not intend to add long-haul equipment to its fleet, thus the "inclusion" of long-haul equipment in last year´s order is very questionable IMO.



Quote:

TUI sagt sie haben 65 Boeing Kurz- und Langstreckenflugzeuge gekauft, zum großen Teil 737s.

"TUI said they have orderd 65 Boeing short and longhaul aircraft, mostly 737s."

This was the statement from Reuters. I got this from a former thread about this since the Reuters link does not work anymore. This order was for Tuifly (ex Hapag and HLX) only.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
User avatar
PM
Posts: 4837
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:05 pm

RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 7:39 pm

Quoting Amirs (Thread starter):
September 15, 2006 Unidentified customer 11

September 26, 2006 Unidentified customer 6

October 4, 2006 Unidentified customer 10

At least some of these could be for leasing companies such as ILFC, GECAS, SALE or CIT. The numbers are about right.
 
2wingtips
Posts: 487
Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2006 12:42 pm

RE: Big Unidentified 787 Customers

Fri Mar 09, 2007 9:00 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 45):
That is anything, but certainly not sure. Recent reports indicate that TUI has no interest in long-haul flying and does not intend to add long-haul equipment to its fleet, thus the "inclusion" of long-haul equipment in last year�s order is very questionable IMO.

Wait and see the official TUI announcement.