PanAm747
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When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 1:31 am

As we all know, the CRJ-200 will NEVER win an award for passenger comfort, but necessary evils of life - without it many cities would not have any jet service, and maybe wouldn't have air service at all!!

However, many new RJ's are being introduced with much higher levels of comfort - the -700 and -900 models are significantly improved over the original model, and Embraer's new line of RJ's seems to have covered a lot of bases - all the way from the -135 to the -195:


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My question is this: given the advances in technology and improvements to the original design, how long until we see airlines phasing the -200's out of their fleet? And is anything really an economical alternative to this design? Meaning, will we see some RJ destinations phased out as newer planes are "too much aircraft" for a particular route?

As I recall, there was a thread about some -200's being scrapped already due to overcapacity, but I am more interested in a move towards a complete withdrawal of the type.

Thanks in advance for your replies!!  cloudnine 
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desertjets
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 1:45 am

Well to some degree the 50 seaters are being phased out. Especially as the majors attempt to right size their regionals as well as their mainline operations. On one end we are seeing more and more 70+ seaters (CR7, CR9, E-Jets) entering the market. This is allowing airlines to upgauge markets at a fairly low cost and open new city pairs. Plus United w/ its ExPlus product is able to offer a premium cabin and Y+ in markets where they are not able to offer mainline service.

On the other end we are beginning to see some of the majors reintroduce turboprops. Look at CO in Newark. Some markets, especially those city pairs < 500 miles apart a turboprop often makes more sense economically vs a 50 seat regional jet. And there are fewer restrictions, in terms of scope clauses and such, on the use of larger turboprops like the Q400 and ATR-72.

Given the age of the oldest CRJs with the abundance of frames available on the used market I would suspect that we may well see high time examples and planes due up for heavy MX begin to be scraped in significant numbers sooner rather than later.
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Tangowhisky
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 3:55 am

Quoting PanAm747 (Thread starter):
However, many new RJ's are being introduced with much higher levels of comfort - the -700 and -900 models are significantly improved over the original model

The bigger RJ are better in all ways, but there is one big problem. The big RJs are limited to scopes whereas most major US carriers can have as many 50 seat and less RJs as they wish. Therefore as long as there are limits to the number of 70 plus RJs majors can have with their regional affiliates, they will use the 50 seat RJs on routes where they make sense (I agree less than in the 90's with low fuel and high yields).
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mrocktor
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 4:55 am

I'd say at least 10 years until they start leaving fleets for good. That said, they (and the ERJ145 family) will be progressively marginalized, in relative terms, as the expansion of the industry during the next ten years will not include 50 seaters in significant numbers.
 
flyf15
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 4:59 am

The part I don't get about replacing 50 seaters with 70 to 90 seaters... is there are two markets 50 seaters are on. Markets that used to be props before RJs came around, and markets that used to be 737s and DC-9s. Sure, it makes sense to make a route that used to be a 737 route be a CRJ-700 route up from a -200. But, when the route was formerly flown with a Saab 340, Dash 8, EMB-120, etc and is now flown with a CRJ-200.... why does it make sense to put a -700 on it?

I fly lots of routes like this. I'll do routes that are consistently full, and routes where we rarely carry more than 20-25 people. You can't fly ever -200 route with a -700. In fact, lots of these routes really should be still flown by 30 seat turboprops, but airlines are addicted to RJs.
 
avconsultant
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 5:17 am

The first CRJ's will start being phased out next year. BBD never extended the maintenance plan, for 121, beyond 15 years.

Look at the recent DL agreement with Mesa; although they referenced ERJ-135, the regional flying will start increasing closer to the 70 seat. As TangoWhiskey mentioned, in the 90's operating the CRJ's was efficient. Today we have a much different environment where you're inhibited if you cap your revenue at 50 or less seats.

IFLY had a 150% break-even on the CRJ in lowest cost pricing. Basic economics would tell one, the aircraft falls into an 80% break-even for other operations. High capacity RJ's should reduce the break-even points depending on mortgage rates and labor agreements. Do not base OH as the norm.
 
PanAm747
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 6:08 am

Here's the reason I asked: America West/USAirways Express has steadily upgraded BFL-PHX from a DH8 to a CRJ-200 to now a CRJ-700/900. United will be flying EM2's intra-California until those planes have vibrated themselves to death (possibly in the era of Captain Kirk and the starship Enterprise), and if COExpress really does return, the EMB-145 is proving to be quite useful on that route.

But Delta is flying only a CRJ-200 to SLC, and if and when UAExpress ever decides to return DEN-BFL (and let's not even count how many candles I have lit in hope for that one!!  pray  ), it would also most likely be on a CRJ-200. If these planes are being retired, what would replace them? Or would the routes prove more economical to axe if there's not a 50 seater available?
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ADent
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 6:32 am

I hope real soon. I have a flight on one from DEN to SLC on UAX (Skywest) next week.

Last time leaving SLC on the CRJ they had to off load 5 people due to snow.
 
AirWillie6475
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 6:56 am

Well RJs are here to stay, even a CRJ2 is better than any T-Prop, but the 50 seaters are probably going to be phased out soon. The CRJ2 could probably be very useful for cargo airlines and in fact a Swedish cargo airline has ordered the first CRJ2 cargo conversion. We'll see.
 
GQfluffy
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 6:59 am

Quoting AirWillie6475 (Reply 8):
even a CRJ2 is better than any T-Prop

Better then a Dash 8 400? I highly doubt that.
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Goldenshield
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 7:11 am

Quoting GQfluffy (Reply 9):
Better then a Dash 8 400? I highly doubt that.

Unless the Dash-8-400 can do LAX-MCI (as a range example) non-stop with a full load in the same amount of time as the CRJ-200, then yes, it is.

Quoting ADent (Reply 7):
Last time leaving SLC on the CRJ they had to off load 5 people due to snow.

Snow isn't the issue. Keeping the flight legal is.
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GQfluffy
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 7:15 am

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 10):
Unless the Dash-8-400 can do LAX-MCI (as a range example) non-stop with a full load in the same amount of time as the CRJ-200, then yes, it is.

Aye, but would you want to fly that distance in an aircraft that small on purpose? Or would you be like me and try to find mainline a/c?
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floridaflyboy
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 7:22 am

Quoting DesertJets (Reply 1):
Well to some degree the 50 seaters are being phased out.

Exactly. From a CASM standpoint, a 70 or 90 seat jet makes much more sense. In some markets, also, there are currently very high frequency 50-seat jets that can be replaced with lower-frequency larger jets for even more cost-savings. For example, quite a few Montana cities receive high-frequencies of 50-seat jets that could be replaced with just a few CR7 or CR9 aircraft.
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Goldenshield
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 7:26 am

Quoting GQfluffy (Reply 11):
Aye, but would you want to fly that distance in an aircraft that small on purpose? Or would you be like me and try to find mainline a/c?

If it gets me to where I want to be, when I want to be there, then yes.

Except for first class, coach seats on a mainline aircraft are no more comfortable than the CRJ-200 in my opinion. I know that people have a problem with the low window profile, but I just bring a few good books to read, since even looking out the window gets boring, and the neighbor(s) are also boring, or annoying.

As a side note, I've done 4 hour legs on a 172 with no bathroom, no entertainment, no legroom, and with myself being the only one on board to get my snacks and drinks, so, in my opinion, those 4 hours in a CRJ-200 are a blessing.

[Edited 2007-03-16 00:35:46]
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 7:36 am

Quoting PanAm747 (Thread starter):
As we all know, the CRJ-200 will NEVER win an award for passenger comfort,

I have to disagree with you; I've flown the CRJ with Air Nostrum dozens of times and it's far superior to the Embraer 135/140/145 series as far as I'm concerned. The cabin is wider and is much less cramped, plus it has much more luggage capacity with the two sets of overheads compared to the Embraer's one. I know it all comes down to personal preference, but the CRJ family is a fine set of aircraft which I enjoy flying.


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Tristarfreak
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 8:07 am

its a tossup to me for DL they just started a few new routes designed for the CRJ2 and correct me if i am wrong but DL dose not operate any CRJ7s as for UA i think they will be dumping their CRJ2s pretty soon considering that they are taking deliveries of the CRJ7 and CRJ9 as well as the EMB170/190 and are just running out of uses for the CRJ2 as for US i think they will be replacing some of the Dash 8-100s with some CRJ2s that they would be otherwise be dumping in the desert because like UA they are taking deliveries of the CRJ7/9 and the EMB 170/190 as for the other airlines I do not know more then likely the CRJ2s will start becoming rare within 5 years or so though
 
Tristarfreak
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 8:13 am

Quoting Tristarfreak (Reply 15):
DL dose not operate any CRJ7s

just remembered that they do under SkyWest Airlines sorry for the mistake but I still don't see DL retiring the CRJ2 anytime soon
 
DAYflyer
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 8:18 am

Quoting PanAm747 (Thread starter):
how long until we see airlines phasing the -200's out of their fleet?

In my opinion, having been forced to fly on one of these contraptions for several years here, "NOT SOON ENOUGH". I would much rather fly on a turboprop. The 700 series has problems and offers no real benefit. The EMB 175 however, is a real winner.
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floridaflyboy
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 8:19 am

Quoting Tristarfreak (Reply 16):

Actually, DL flies the CR7 under SkyWest, Comair, and ASA
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Tristarfreak
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 8:20 am

Quoting Floridaflyboy (Reply 18):
ly, DL flies the CR7 under SkyWest, Comair, and ASA

thanks for the correction
 
S5FA170
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 8:21 am

Delta Connection carriers ASA and Comair also operate the CRJ-700 for Delta. (Well, Comair did. Did Delta take some or all of the -700s away? I thought it was just a couple).
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floridaflyboy
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 8:22 am

Quoting Tristarfreak (Reply 19):
thanks for the correction

No prob. The way the legacies play musical chairs with the commuters, it's hard to remember who's operating what.
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Goldenshield
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 9:06 am

Quoting Floridaflyboy (Reply 18):
Actually, DL flies the CR7 under SkyWest, Comair, and ASA



Quoting Floridaflyboy (Reply 18):
thanks for the correction

You've got that backwards. Those carriers for for Delta under the Delta Express banner.
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avconsultant
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 9:53 pm

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 22):
Those carriers for for Delta under the Delta Express banner.

There is no Delta Express. It's Delta Connection. Don't ever bring up Delta Express on the reservations or MEdallion line, they're very quick to correct you.
 
Goldenshield
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 9:55 pm

Quoting AvConsultant (Reply 23):
There is no Delta Express. It's Delta Connection.

My bad. I confuse them sometimes, but my point still stands. :P
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Tangowhisky
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Fri Mar 16, 2007 10:32 pm

Quoting Floridaflyboy (Reply 12):
From a CASM standpoint, a 70 or 90 seat jet makes much more sense. In some markets, also, there are currently very high frequency 50-seat jets that can be replaced with lower-frequency larger jets for even more cost-savings.

Agreed. But there is a very big BUT. Anything bigger than a 50 seat jet goes into scope limits territory. US carriers can have only so many 70 seat plus jets. So they are often stuck with using 50 seat RJs with greater frequency than placing a 70 seat RJ with lower frequency just because they can have limited 70 seat plus RJs and limitless 50 seat RJs. This is also partly (not totally) why we are seeing increased orders for 70 seat turboprops in the US. Therefore to get back to the original topic, CRJ200s will not be phased out in great numbers unless scopes are relaxed for bigger RJs, or oil prices spike to new levels. But it seems even with oil around $60, and present yields, present fleet of 50 seat RJs have a role.
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saab2000
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Sat Mar 17, 2007 1:31 am

They will slowly go away as both manufacturers stop delivering them. They are unpopular, inefficient airplanes and sooner or later they will not be welcome at slot controlled airports with huge delays like LGA.

I think we will see more or the CRJ-900s out there outfitted with 76 seats.

In five years there will be fewer CRJ-100/200s out there flying around.
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Tangowhisky
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Sat Mar 17, 2007 2:43 am

Quoting Saab2000 (Reply 26):
They are unpopular, inefficient airplanes and sooner or later they will not be welcome at slot controlled airports with huge delays like LGA.

The CRJ came from a Challenger corporate jet, and the ERJ145 fuse was based on the Brasilia EMB-120. Both companies bet on something while trying to minimize the financial risk as far as possible. But the concept took off as they are more comfortable from the noise, turbulence and vibration point of view from Saab 340, EMB-120s, and in my opinion even larger turboprops. They opened up a lot of new non-stop markets and became a good hub feeder. But they are cramped.

When these planes hit the market 15 years ago, there were all kinds of scope limits in terms of the numbers that can ble flown by regionals. Today, it is carte blanche. Now that scopes are no longer an issue for 50 seats and less, and 50 seat RJs are still the backbone, I could see a new generation of 50 seat RJs that are more comfortable, more efficient in economics, and improved performance for replacement market as early as 6 to 8 years from now. As for slot limits, how is it different for turboprops? I agree about LGA and cuts will be made at such airports, but legacy carriers will continue to use the hub and spoke model, small communities will need regional service, and timely connections for network carriers will still be the way of the future. I agree that 50 seat RJs are not as profitable as 10 years ago when oil was $30, and ticket prices were higher. But they are still profitable in many routes that support high yields.

Quoting Saab2000 (Reply 26):
I think we will see more or the CRJ-900s out there outfitted with 76 seats.

As long as scopes limit the number of these larger RJs at regionals, and the economics don't work at mainline costs, there will be LIMITS to the number of these larger RJs sold in the US. Look at AMR Eagle, a perfect example as they can not grow their 70 seat RJ fleet but flying a lot of 50 seat and lesser RJ metal.

I can see Bombardier further challenging Embraer in coming up with a slightly taller and wider fuselage, with new engines, more composites, etc. etc. in 6-8 years from now for next generation RJs by staying in the 50-100 seat market, starting again at 50 seats, as they ain't going anywhere with their Cseries.
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PanAm747
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Sun Mar 18, 2007 12:34 am

Okay, let's talk about operating economics.

In comparing all these RJ's, how fuel efficient are they? As Detroit taught us in the 1970's, just because something is small, doesn't mean it's fuel-efficient OR a great design (Pinto, Vega, Pacer, etc). Is the -200 economical? Is it a Honda Civic or a Ford Pinto?

How exactly do airlines compare fuel efficiency anyway? Cost per seat per mile?
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Tangowhisky
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Sun Mar 18, 2007 5:21 am

If you breakdown fuel burn per seat, labor costs per seat, maintenance costs per seat, a bigger plane will always have the advantage. From the CASM you talk about, a CRJ or ERJ surely have some of the worst numbers mainly because we are talking about 50 seats and not say a 140 seat 737. However, what is also important to measure is their trip costs, which are lower for the RJs. This is why they are most effective on long, thin regional routes that support high yields. I'll say they are a Pinto with room for improvement towards a Civic.
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flydreamliner
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Sun Mar 18, 2007 3:43 pm

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 14):
but the CRJ family is a fine set of aircraft which I enjoy flying.

Enjoy flying the CRJ? That can't be right.

I will concede, the CRJ might be as bearable/more bearable than the ERJ135/140/145, but that isn't saying much. The CRJ's have cramped cielings, the window seats are unpleasant due to the curvature, there is almost no overhead bin space, they aren't that quiet, there just is very little to like about them. Give me a DC-9, 737-500, A318, or whatever over a regional jet.... fewer frequencies wouldn't be the end of the world.
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saab2000
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Sun Mar 18, 2007 8:42 pm

Tangowhisky is right that they would be best suited for longer, thinner routes. But they are not always used for that. I fly the CRJ on the east coast and have many routes of 30 minutes flight time or less. Much time is spent restricted to 250 knots on those routes and there is no way the CRJ is more efficient or even much faster than a Dash-8 or something of that nature.

The CRJ-200 is a miserable plane IMHO (I fly it and have several thousand hours in it and so feel qualified to say that....  Big grin) but the CRJ-700 is much nicer. And it has lower costs than the EMB-170.
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Tangowhisky
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Mon Mar 19, 2007 2:09 am

Back in the later half of the 90's to about 2000 majors did stupid things. First they overbought too many small RJs and today they have massive indigestion. They ended up placing RJs where it did not make sense and that worked until ticket prices dropped mainly due to LCCs, and fuel costs spiked to levels we face today. It's job was for hub bypass and new nonstop routes. But network carriers use them excessively for hub feed.

Eventually though these first generation RJs will need replacement with specs depending on which way scopes go. If scopes are expanded to say 60 seats, I can see a market for second generation small RJs that will replace quite a number with improvements to all the items you despise on the current first generation product. Think of today's cell phones versus those 10 years ago. There is room for improvement for a better product both from the passenger perspective as well as the operator. There are nearly 2000 of them, and surely there will be a replacement market with much improved design. With it I would see airlines using them for their suitable purpose: minimum 1 hour flights, thin routes, new markets, hub supplement, etc.
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saab2000
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Mon Mar 19, 2007 4:33 am

Scopes are already over 50. Most are 70-76 seats.
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Tangowhisky
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Mon Mar 19, 2007 8:28 pm

Quoting Saab2000 (Reply 33):
Scopes are already over 50. Most are 70-76 seats.

Scopes for 50 seats and 70 seats + are different. Airlines still are limited to the number of 70 seats that can be operated by their regional aprtners. There is no such limit on 50 seats any longer for most airlines.
Only the paranoid survive
 
eraugrad02
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Mon Mar 19, 2007 9:26 pm

BBD should build a 50 seat RJ based on the -700/-900 platform so the windows will be higher and use the more effecient engines as well from the -700. Also use the wings from -700 so that it has better short field performance. For example DL HAS TO USE THE crj-700 to fly atl- key west because the 200 cant get up in the air with 50 pax from such a short runway like the -700/E-170 can. This is all just a thought.
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mrocktor
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Mon Mar 19, 2007 11:32 pm

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 32):
Back in the later half of the 90's to about 2000 majors did stupid things.

Not really. It made sense - then. Scope meant they couldnt buy anything from 50 to 150 seats, the demand was there (pre 9/11). They got what they could.
 
Tangowhisky
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Tue Mar 20, 2007 1:03 am

Quoting Mrocktor (Reply 36):
Scope meant they couldnt buy anything from 50 to 150 seats, the demand was there (pre 9/11). They got what they could.

You touched on two important points: relaxation of scopes and pre 9/11. Relaxation of scopes was a catalyst for buying more RJs but did not justify in the amounts that they did. Like it has been said 50 seat RJs are today used in too many short routes, causing congestion due to high frequency rates, where they should have been bought for largely long routes, and primarily (not secondary) for hub bypass.

9/11 was a wake-up call for the airline bubble where super high ticket prices especially for business travellers, build-up of operational inefficiencies, and access to guaranteed export financing by ERJ and BBD all contributed to buying for the present with no objective assessment of the sustainability of what was happening or could come in the future (i.e. recession or slowdown). We are and will live through a correction for small RJs but IMO there will be a sustainable world fleet for at least 1000 of these jets.
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floridaflyboy
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Tue Mar 20, 2007 1:14 am

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 22):
You've got that backwards. Those carriers for for Delta under the Delta Express banner.



Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 24):
My bad. I confuse them sometimes, but my point still stands. :P

I realize that DL doesn't actually operate the aircraft. My point was correct. The DL CR7's are operated for Delta under SkyWest, Comair, and ASA.
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planemaker
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Tue Mar 20, 2007 3:23 am

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 32):
Back in the later half of the 90's to about 2000 majors did stupid things. First they overbought too many small RJs

It wasn't stupid and they didn't "overbuy too many small RJs."

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 32):
and today they have massive indigestion.

No they don't.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 32):
They ended up placing RJs where it did not make sense...

No they didn't.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 32):
...and that worked until ticket prices dropped mainly due to LCCs

No it didn't.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 32):
It's job was for hub bypass and new nonstop routes.

No it is not.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 32):
But network carriers use them excessively for hub feed.

No they do not.
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Goldenshield
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RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Tue Mar 20, 2007 7:24 am

Quoting Floridaflyboy (Reply 38):
My point was correct. The DL CR7's are operated for Delta under SkyWest, Comair, and ASA.

You seem to be confusing the meanings of the prepositions "under" and "by."

Under = 5. beneath the heading or within the category of.
By = 3. on, as a means of conveyance.

SkyWest, Comair, and ASA, operate and fly the CR7. Those carriers fly under the Delta Connection banner for Delta.

If Delta operated the CR7 under those carriers, then Delta would be the contracted carrier (as compared to contracting carrier, as it is in reality) for those regional carriers.
Two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions on a sesame seed bun.
 
Comet2404
Posts: 13
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2007 12:21 am

RE: When Will CRJ-200's Be Phased Out?

Tue Mar 20, 2007 7:56 am

Quoting ERAUgrad02 (Reply 35):

Also use the wings from -700 so that it has better short field performance. For example DL HAS TO USE THE crj-700 to fly atl- key west because the 200 cant get up in the air with 50 pax from such a short runway like the -700/E-170 can.


Not true. While it is difficult getting out of EYW with the 200, very difficult IMHO... they have been utilizing the 200, in the 40 seat configuration in and out of EYW this winter. Now I'm sure as the summertime comes around, we wont be seeing that, due to loads and of course the hot weather, thus we'll see the good old 700 come in and take its place. But the 200 is an excellent airplane, it does exactly what it is intended to do. Give me a 200 any day over ANY ERJ. I used to fly the 200 and the 700 for ASA as a flight attendant, and I'm doing my commercial AMEL right now, hoping to be back flying the 200 as a pilot in a year or so. Would I like fly the 700 instead of the 200, absolutely, but the 200 is a fine aircraft, and I can't wait to fly it!

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