JAAlbert
Topic Author
Posts: 1549
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 12:43 pm

787 Meets Magic 500 Sales Milestone!

Mon Mar 19, 2007 10:23 pm

In an article about VS being the likely purchaser of the mystery 15 787s on Boeing's order books last week, ATW is reporting that Boeing now has 490 787 signed orders and an additional 23 to be signed within the coming weeks. This brings Boeing's order book on the 787 to 513! We all questioned whether Boeing could get 500 orders before first flight -- it is now apparent that Boeing has the orders prior to first construction! Here's the link http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=8265

While the orders say much about the popularity of the new airplane, I also think the record orders are the result of a new era in commercial aviation -- global aviation is growing rapidly and airlines are desperate for long haul planes. To ensure availability of aircraft when the airlines need them, the airlines are not waiting until entry into service, but are snapping up production slots well in advance. Compare the 350-XWB -- it is rumoured that some airlines will soon be placing very large orders for the Airbus' new mid-sized plane, before it is even off the drafting table (err screen). A 50-100 plane order has been mentioned, which would be an astounding size order for a widebody airplane.

It also shows that Boeing's predictions were spot on in sizing its new aircraft for the mid-sized widebody market.

Just my thoughts anyways.

Congrats to Boeing! Now let's see the plane!
 
airfrnt
Posts: 1993
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

RE: 787 Meets Magic 500 Sales Milestone!

Mon Mar 19, 2007 10:36 pm

Quoting JAAlbert (Thread starter):
In an article about VS being the likely purchaser of the mystery 15 787s on Boeing's order books last week, ATW is reporting that Boeing now has 490 787 signed orders and an additional 23 to be signed within the coming weeks. This brings Boeing's order book on the 787 to 513! We all questioned whether Boeing could get 500 orders before first flight -- it is now apparent that Boeing has the orders prior to first construction! Here's the link http://www.atwonline.com/news/story....=8265

Given that when plane projects go disastrously wrong (The L-1011, and the A380 for example) the break even number tends to be around 500 (rather then the 200 number which always seems to be the announced number when a project is launched) Boeing has to be amazingly happy with this particular trend.

Boeing and it's partners at this point are probably well past the break even point on this project. That's going to make cash flow and investment much easier for the next planes to come off Boeing's lines. It's also a great reflection on Stonecipher (who launched the product even though he wasn't sure Boeing should stay in the commercial arena) and Alan Mullally's work. While neither man is still with Boeing, they certainly have left a fine legacy in the form of the 787.

Quoting JAAlbert (Thread starter):
While the orders say much about the popularity of the new airplane, I also think the record orders are the result of a new era in commercial aviation -- global aviation is growing rapidly and airlines are desperate for long haul planes. To ensure availability of aircraft when the airlines need them, the airlines are not waiting until entry into service, but are snapping up production slots well in advance. Compare the 350-XWB -- it is rumoured that some airlines will soon be placing very large orders for the Airbus' new mid-sized plane, before it is even off the drafting table (err screen). A 50-100 plane order has been mentioned, which would be an astounding size order for a widebody airplane.

Because of the incredible discounting that is going on around the 350XWB, as Airbus struggles to convert earlier orders for the 350 to the 350XWB, I think it's a bit soon to see what the market holds long term for that plane. Let's see what the plane does when Airbus isn't discounting 650 million on top of the launch discounts.

If the rumors are correct, a Airbus loyalist like VS going 787 is very problematic. Remember the 340 versus 777 discussion a few years ago? Everyone and their mother knew the moment that sales campaign began that Boeing had no shot at the order.

I think that it's not just a blind need for capacity that is being reflected in the huge orders from ANA, JAL, Qantas, Qatar, etc. It's that carriers continue the trend starting with US deregulation. More frequency at the expense of seat count to maintain pricing control and boost appeal to customers. More then anything else, this is the trend that Boeing saw in the 1990s, and that Airbus did not. While the production problems of the A380 have made it likely that the argument will never be proven out without a qualifier, I still believe the decision of Airbus and Boeing to launch the A380 and the 787 remains the cornerstone to their current fortunes.

[Edited 2007-03-19 15:39:43]
 
boeingbus
Posts: 1509
Joined: Sat May 29, 2004 12:37 am

RE: 787 Meets Magic 500 Sales Milestone!

Mon Mar 19, 2007 10:59 pm

Virgin has lots to gain with the EUUS open skies agreement. With that said, Virgin is going to have a huge growth ahead and thus requiring new long haul planes.
Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 22953
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: 787 Meets Magic 500 Sales Milestone!

Tue Mar 20, 2007 12:16 am

500 planes before roll-out, much less first flight and EIS.

Simply amazing.
 
flydreamliner
Posts: 1928
Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2006 7:05 am

RE: 787 Meets Magic 500 Sales Milestone!

Tue Mar 20, 2007 1:18 am

It begs the question if we'll see upwards of six hundred planes sold before it flies. There are a couple very large potential 787 orders that might get executed this year. Now let's all hope Boeing can deliver and it works like it has been promised. They have BA's longhaul order coming up, DL looks poised to buy some 787s when they emerge from BK, Emirates is likely to order a mid-size long-hauler at some point, so who knows.
"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
 
jetfuel
Posts: 1027
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 10:27 pm

RE: 787 Meets Magic 500 Sales Milestone!

Tue Mar 20, 2007 1:27 am

Totally mind blowing. I think 787's are going to end up being so common we are all going to just turn another way when one lands  duck 
Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
 
BoomBoom
Posts: 2459
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2005 2:26 am

RE: 787 Meets Magic 500 Sales Milestone!

Tue Mar 20, 2007 1:32 am

Quoting JAAlbert (Thread starter):
This brings Boeing's order book on the 787 to 513!



Quote:
During the first update this year on the 787 program, Mike Bair, head of the 787 program, said Boeing likely will increase production of the aircraft to meet strong customer demand, which now stands at close to 500 aircraft. "We have probably three times that many" orders under consideration with a variety of airlines, he added. Customer interest in the 787 has been "surprising" even to Boeing, Bair said. The aircraft is mostly sold out until the end of 2013.

But Bair said that Boeing won't add to the 112 aircraft it plans to make in 2008 and 2009. Any additional production will be based on how strong the order book is after the first two years of deliveries, since it would require additional investment in manufacturing plants.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...0319-707899.html?mod=moj_companies
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
kaitak
Posts: 8937
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 1999 5:49 am

RE: 787 Meets Magic 500 Sales Milestone!

Tue Mar 20, 2007 1:44 am

It's great for Boeing that the 787 is doing so well, but I guess some airlines will be a bit disconcerted to be waiting until 2013 for new aircraft. Obviously this 490/513 includes a lot of lessors, but I wonder if ALL of their aircraft are spoken for? I know ALAFCO ordered a good few last week and unless KU (part owner of ALAFCO and prospective 787 customer) is taking all of these, there may still be a few.

Interesting also that for the two most recent A350 customers, both are owned by govts who are intent on buying into EADS; clearly politics comes into it. I don't mean disrespect towards Airbus in saying this; the A350 has a lot to recommend it, but it's a bit late on the shop floor. Even though first available 787 deliveries are said to be 2013, that's still before possible A350 deliveries and we know Boeing is actively considering ramping up production.

When they do (ramp up production), do you think new "spaces" created on the line will be available to new 787 customers, or will they just move existing planned production forward?
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 22953
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: 787 Meets Magic 500 Sales Milestone!

Tue Mar 20, 2007 1:56 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 7):
When they do (ramp up production), do you think new "spaces" created on the line will be available to new 787 customers, or will they just move existing planned production forward?

Could be a combination of both, as Boeing and their suppliers would need to spend a good deal of money adding and supporting a second line, so Boeing might be factoring some of that price into the per-frame negotiations so some carriers may be willing to spend a bit more per frame to get "preferential placement" in the queue, since Boeing will still be able to meet the original contractual delivery date for the first set of orders. And some carriers may very well want to keep those delivery dates even if earlier dates become available.
 
NYC777
Posts: 5065
Joined: Wed Jun 09, 2004 3:00 am

RE: 787 Meets Magic 500 Sales Milestone!

Tue Mar 20, 2007 2:03 am

Well Boeing hasn't reached 500 yet but I suspect well see that number by the end of the month easily. also listening to Mike Bair this AM, he said they have signed orders, LoIs and proposals for a further 1500. 2000 (if they get all the proposals and LoIs signed) is pretty damned good and will most likely muscle out the A350.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
kbdude
Posts: 124
Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2006 7:03 am

RE: 787 Meets Magic 500 Sales Milestone!

Tue Mar 20, 2007 5:56 am

IMO, Boeing is just starting to realize the yields of each subassembly at each contractor.... assembling the 787...

Quoting JAAlbert (Thread starter):
ATW is reporting that Boeing now has 490 787 signed orders and an additional 23 to be signed within the coming weeks. This brings Boeing's order book on the 787 to 513! We all questioned whether Boeing could get 500 orders before first flight -- it is now apparent that Boeing has the orders prior to first construction! Here's the link http://www.atwonline.com/news/story....=8265

If indeed the 787 will soon get 500 firm orders, to put things in perspective....through FEB 2007

A330 (all variants, including the F) lifetime orders = 680
A340 (all variants) lifetime orders = 400

B767 (all variants) lifetime orders = 1002

third best medium widebody ever.....before rollout!! Simply amazing!  Wow!

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: ACATROYAL, Baidu [Spider], ChristopherS, cityairline, Google [Bot], kaitak744, NZdsgnr, overcast, PJ01, scbriml, StTim, SyeaphanR and 208 guests