ikramerica
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Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Fri Mar 23, 2007 9:54 am

Or will it take the 787 as well to make it worthwhile?

It's a long range trip and would currently require a 747 or 777 or A340. Most of those are outfitted with a lot of premium seats on most airlines. One would assume you'd need a denser configuration to make it work. And CO's 764 20/236 configuration doesn't have the range. Would VS consider this route? Could JetStar win authority for this route?

Or will it just never be feasible due to yields, timezones and distance?
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flydreamliner
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Fri Mar 23, 2007 9:56 am

Do you really think there is sufficient demand for this route by itself? I am always suspicious of very long haul routes geared to tourists. The plane change at EWR, MSP, ORD, ATL, or wherever isn't really the end of the world when you're shopping for bottom dollar. I think you'd have a hard time making money on a route like LON-HNL.
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dutchjet
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Fri Mar 23, 2007 10:37 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Thread starter):
Or will it take the 787 as well to make it worthwhile?

Neither the 787 or OpenSkies is going to make the London-Honolulu route worthwhile.......why? There are not enough passengers that are going to fly 13-14 hours for a beach holiday. Yes, Hawaii is beautiful, but its very far and very expensive for UK and EU passengers to travel to Hawaii for a couple of weeks in the sun.....dont forget how many alternatives there are for travellers looking for a beach holiday in an exotic destination. Spain, Turkey, Egypt, North Africa, the Canaries, Medeteranian resorts are all avaiable at low costs.....the Caribbean including Cancun is closer and cheaper as is Phuket, Thailand.....even a trip to Capetown is a faster and easier trip from the UK when compared to Hawaii.....it far and its lots of time zones away. And, there is almost no business or premium traffic to speak of on this route - result: an airplane filled with holiday travellers who paid low fares. Not exactly what the airlines have in mind. Also consider that the few UK/EU travellers that do go to Hawaii usually do it as a part of a tour to the US West Coast, thus travelling via LAX or SFO.

The best analogy that I can think of is Air Tahiti Nui's lack of success on its JFK-PPT route.....as magnificent as Tahiti is, there are very few people on the east coast of the US that are going to by pass the caribbean, the bahamas and Mexico and fly on to Tahiti for a holiday in the sun....its simply too far away.
 
boswashsprstar
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Fri Mar 23, 2007 10:38 am

This seems unlikely. As it is, Hawaii isn't even a big holiday market for East Coast Americans--People in the Western US vacation who want a beach-island vacation go to Hawaii, people in the Eastern US who want a beach-island vacation will most often go to the Caribbean. (Note the island part is important--people just wanting a beach vacation can go to SoCal/Mexico and Florida respectively.) And there's ample capacity from London to the Caribbean with BA and VS, and other available options like DL connecting in ATL or AA connecting in MIA.

Given that London-Hawaii is even farther than East Coast US-Hawaii, it's hard to see this route being made to work.
 
targowski
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Fri Mar 23, 2007 10:41 am

FlyDreamer is right, the market for very long flights such as LON-HNL is very limited due to the high costs of transporting fuel such a great distance (since you can't stop for fuel, you need to bring it all with you) and since that fuel takes up space and more importantly weight, you can't have too high of passenger density and sometimes you can't have 3 class service since the wieght of both business and first class equipment (bedchairs, in flight bar, extra bathroom, etc) would prevent flying with realistic passenger capacity. the market for a premium econ and enhanced business class cabin (like SQ's A345) doesn't exist on such leisure routes. thats why most really long flights now are between commerical centers (NYC/LAX-SIN, NYC-HKG, and maybe in the future LON-SYD).
 
boswashsprstar
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Fri Mar 23, 2007 10:45 am

Quoting Targowski (Reply 4):
maybe in the future LON-SYD)

Indeed the problems you describe may ultimately be the stumbling block in the otherwise logical step of LON-SYD services, even once the technology is available, since that market actually has a fairly strong leisure tilt to it.
 
PlymSpotter
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Fri Mar 23, 2007 10:49 am

I can actually see a good chance of this happening once some of the UK charter airlines receive their 787's. The British public is suddenly getting very adventurous with their holidays; Greece and Turkey are becoming as much of a cliche as Spain and Portugal and new package tour destinations in Brazil, India, Sri Lanka and China are being opened up at tempting prices by the major high street travel agents such as MyTravel, TUI and Thomas Cook. Some of these are 10+ hour flights, predominately done with A332's - so I don't see why Hawaii, especially being the Island Paradise icon that it is, wouldn't receive a very warm welcome from the punters, despite the flying time of 12-13 hours.


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commavia
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Fri Mar 23, 2007 10:51 am

Each time I'm in Hawaii, I find myself with more and more Brits. Wonderful by the way -- I love the Brits!  Smile

That being said, I'm not sure if the market -- albeit definitely growing and developing -- really warrants a nonstop or will for a while. The market is pretty well served now by connections mostly over LAX and SFO.

Do any of the myriad of U.K. charter carriers ever carry out regular seasonal and/or year-round charter operations to Hawaii?
 
ha763
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Fri Mar 23, 2007 12:03 pm

I don't know why there is so much debate over the Hawaii market. Hawaii has kept the best visitor statistics for decades and puts out monthly and annual reports that are publically available on the internet.

Is there a large enough market for a scheduled non-stop UK-Hawaii or Europe-Hawaii flight? No. From the last available annual report, 2005, we got 112,370 visitors from Europe. Of those visitors, 62,827 came from the U.K. This is more than Korea and Taiwan combined, and they have non-stop and/or daily service. However, considering the distance involved, it still isn't enough to warrant non-stop service. We did see non-stop service by LH back in the early 1990s, but that didn't work out.

Is there a market for a European tour operator to fly occassional non-stop charters? Yes, but none have done so far. So far, we've had round-the-world tours from Europe stop in HNL for many years now. Maybe with the 787 on order at FCA (possibly soon to be merged with TUI) and possibly with TUI itself, we could see some non-stop charters.
 
vv701
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Fri Mar 23, 2007 12:18 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Thread starter):
Or will it just never be feasible due to yields, timezones and distance?

UA934 departs HNL at 0700am. UA934 arrives LHR 1215pm the following day.

UA935 departs LHR 1035am. UA935 arrives HNL 0750pm.

Both flights are via LAX where a change of plane is necessary.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Fri Mar 23, 2007 12:48 pm

62,827 UK tourists. On a 6 days a week schedule, that's 200 a day. 200 who brave the 20 to 36 hour connection journey to get there. I checked. In most cases it's 22-30 hours travel over an otherwise 6500nm route to get there, and there's one really tight option to get back to London in 16 hours, otherwise it's 20-25 hours.

This doesn't count Hawaii residents who go to LHR or one stop to the EU. One would guess there would be 20 a day? Not out of the question. And the cargo. Perishable tropical fruits and flowers going one way, and needed goods coming back.

A 777 or 747 is too large, but a 180-200 seat 788 would get you there in 12-15 hours depending on direction in 2-3 classes of service, and has great cargo ability. A charter 788 at 240 seats might also work, but I don't see why a 5-6 day a week scheduled flight wouldn't work. Look how many cities BA already flies to in the USA, and tell me truly why HNL is so out of line?

One must remember that a main reason this flight didn't exist was because it couldn't exist in the past due to aircraft limitations, and because Bermuda 2 doesn't allow it to LHR at all, or LGW in practical terms. All city pairs allowed under the agreement are already taken, and to open LGW-HNL another city pair would have had to be dropped. That wasn't going to happen. And nobody was going to start MAN-HNL, for example.

Bermuda 2 is going to go away now. That means nobody has to drop ANY city in the USA to start LHR or LGW to HNL.

British citizens go to Southeast Asia on holiday en masse. That's as far as HNL. They go to South Africa and South America. They go to Australia and New Zealand. They travel long distances! And visiting an English speaking country where your currency buys a lot (as the pound does against the dollar) is desirable for Brits.

The idea that Hawaii is not worth seeing because other things are closer is just provincial and insulting to Hawai'ians. Hawaii is actively volcanic and has a unique culture.

I've been all over the world. Hawaii is different than the Carribean, Greece, etc., and the British visit it.

And Brits are adventurous. They colonized all over the world. They even went to Hawaii way back when, with James Cook charting the islands and naming them for the Earl of Sandwich, and ending up being killed there when he came back due to a dispute. The Hawaii flag even has the Union Jack in the corner just as their former colonies do!

And if there were a non-stop, one would expect far MORE Brits to visit. If they new it wouldn't take 21+ hours to get there. Eventually, it will happen. I'm wondering when and who might do it, now that the key limiting factor, B2, is going to finally go away.

As for timing, the HNL flight could also leave mid-afternoon, choosing a time that's less desirable slot wise. Blocked at 15 hours, you can leave London at 2PM and arrive HNL at 5PM, even leaving time for inter island connections. Returning, you could leave HNL at 7PM (leaving a full day for tourism or connections), and arrive LHR 6PM, which I believe allows you to connect into the EU reasonably.
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floridaflyboy
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Fri Mar 23, 2007 12:50 pm

Quoting Targowski (Reply 4):

My thoughts exactly. I doubt too many people will be willing to fly half way around the world when the carribean is so much closer.
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AeroWesty
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Fri Mar 23, 2007 12:59 pm

Even though HNL is only 1300 miles further from London than Thailand, which is a huge draw for those all over Europe despite its distance, Hawaiian tourism isn't setup for the classic purpose-built all-inclusive resort popular with the Brits. I don't see regularly scheduled nonstop flights between London and Honolulu succeeding at all.
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scotron11
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Fri Mar 23, 2007 2:26 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 10):

And if there were a non-stop, one would expect far MORE Brits to visit. If they new it wouldn't take 21+ hours to get there. Eventually, it will happen. I'm wondering when and who might do it, now that the key limiting factor, B2, is going to finally go away.

You are talking x-LON flight. What about the folk that live in places like EDI/GLA/MAN/BHX/NCL etc? Then you have to connect at LHR/LGW which can add 3-4hrs to that schedule.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 10):

62,827 UK tourists.

Is that airport arrivals? Or all UK tourists combined including cruiselines? Not saying Hawaii is'nt a good destination, but the main destinations for tourists x-UK-US are Florida, California, Nevada & East Coast, or a combination fly/drive package.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 10):

British citizens go to Southeast Asia on holiday en masse. That's as far as HNL. They go to South Africa and South America. They go to Australia and New Zealand. They travel long distances! And visiting an English speaking country where your currency buys a lot (as the pound does against the dollar) is desirable for Brits.

 checkmark 

Long-haul holidays are the fastest growing market right now. Places like the Maldives, Thailand (Indonesia was a big destination at one time) etc. So I would say, as previously mentioned, maybe someone like FirstChoice/ThomasCook could market Hawaii successfully or even FlyGlobespan, as they offer South Africa x-MAN.
 
ha763
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Fri Mar 23, 2007 3:12 pm

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 13):
62,827 UK tourists.

Is that airport arrivals? Or all UK tourists combined including cruiselines?

Air arrivals only. I should have put the link to the statistics in my previous post.

http://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/info/visitor-stats/
 
ikramerica
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Sat Mar 24, 2007 1:43 am

Quoting Ha763 (Reply 14):
Air arrivals only. I should have put the link to the statistics in my previous post.

And honyemooners make a big chunk of that. Generally higher yield than a typical "family" tourist. Once in a lifetime, nothing is too good for my woman even if it puts us into debt to start our marriage, stuff like that...  Wink
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soups
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Sat Mar 24, 2007 7:14 am

How about passengers from Hawaii visiting europe or connecting to other parts of the world such as the middle east.
If you walk in a travel agent in the UK they do have special brochures on hawaii only.The brits will go ANYWHERE for their holidays as long as its got good beaches, the new destiantion now for the broits is Sanya in China. Who ever though going to china for a beach resort?
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dutchjet
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Sat Mar 24, 2007 8:53 am

Quoting Soups (Reply 16):
How about passengers from Hawaii visiting europe or connecting to other parts of the world such as the middle east.

Thats a rather small market........and connections to Europe are available via US hub cities.

Quoting Soups (Reply 16):
If you walk in a travel agent in the UK they do have special brochures on hawaii only.

Using fares negotiated with the US airlines or the major alliances.......those fares are quite low and the carriers agree to these low fares since the pax fill up a limited number of seats on a variety of flights. Moving some passengers though the system on lower fares is one thing.......dedicating one or more widebody aircraft to fly a long haul leisure route filled with such passengers is another. The thing is that London-Hawaii would be overwhemingly leisure traffic, and thats the problem.

Quoting Soups (Reply 16):
The brits will go ANYWHERE for their holidays as long as its got good beaches, the new destiantion now for the broits is Sanya in China

The Brits will go anywhere as long as its got good beaches AND IS CHEAP, and if an all-in package is available with unlimited free booze, even better. (Nothing anti-Brit, the same is true for all European holiday traffic.) Hawaii is simply too far and too expensive to compete in the market......yes, a limited number of UK/EU travellers will find their way to the Hawaiian islands, but not a big enough number to support and justify nonstop flights. And as I mentioned above, many EU/UK travellers combine a visit to the Hawaian islands with a tour of the US West Coast, a swing through the pacific, or a round the world tour. My guess it that the number of UK travellers making a trip that is exclusively to Hawaii is much lower than the figures quoted above (just a guess.)


------------

London-Honolulu sounds like a nice idea, and some great argruements and ideas were put foward in this thread...some really interesting stuff, but unless a UK tour operator/charter airline can figure out a way to offer all-in packages to Hawaii at prices that can compete with other exotic destinations available from the UK (everything from the Maldives to African beach resorts to Thailand), its unlikely that nonstop flights will be introduced, open skies or not.
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Sat Mar 24, 2007 11:17 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 2):
Yes, Hawaii is beautiful, but its very far and very expensive for UK and EU passengers to travel to Hawaii for a couple of weeks in the sun.....dont forget how many alternatives there are for travellers looking for a beach holiday in an exotic destination. Spain, Turkey, Egypt, North Africa, the Canaries, Medeteranian resorts are all avaiable at low costs.....the Caribbean including Cancun is closer and cheaper as is Phuket, Thailand.....even a trip to Capetown is a faster and easier trip from the UK when compared to Hawaii.....it far and its lots of time zones away.

 checkmark  I think Hawaii to the U.K. and E.U. is what the Maldives and Seychelles is to those of us here in the U.S.A. as far as distance goes. Have you seen or heard of any direct flights from a U.S. airport to the Maldives? I highly doubt it. The Caribbean is closer and a place like PUJ or POP in the Dominican Republic is a place for folks from the U.K. and E.U. to go and be on holiday during the dead dark days of winter for 2-3 weeks for cheap. Our Canadian neighbors swear by it  biggrin !

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 17):
but unless a UK tour operator/charter airline can figure out a way to offer all-in packages to Hawaii at prices that can compete with other exotic destinations available from the UK (everything from the Maldives to African beach resorts to Thailand), its unlikely that nonstop flights will be introduced, open skies or not.

I think this sums it up very well. If folks from the U.K. or E.U. really want to go to Hawaii, there are plenty of connections they can get at especially here in the western U.S. I'd very much love to go to the Maldives or Seychelles one day not to mention Tahiti (something much more realistic for me living in SLC--plenty of DL connections to LAX to pick up a TN flight), but I know I'll have to go and connect to there via one of the European hubs or DXB. This is something that is 12 full time zones away from SLC, not to mention at least 2 full days worth of flights.
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Sun Mar 25, 2007 2:55 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 2):
The best analogy that I can think of is Air Tahiti Nui's lack of success on its JFK-PPT route.....as magnificent as Tahiti is, there are very few people on the east coast of the US that are going to by pass the Caribbean, the Bahamas and Mexico and fly on to Tahiti for a holiday in the sun....its simply too far away.

People frequently ask why DL doesn't do a NYC-JFK flight; this is the reason. As for TN, they are too focused on the NYC market being tha largest in North America (U.S./Canada) and would actually do much better hypothetically if they did the second PPT route from SFO or even YVR or splitting it between the two on opposite days. JFK has been a hard sell and a money loser for them I've read in too many places.
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UAL777UK
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Sun Mar 25, 2007 3:30 am

Its an interesting thread, I have had the good luck to visit the Hawaiian Islands on a few occasions and without doubt I am sure a lot of people from these Islands would love to visit them, although, I am a dubious about a non stop flight and in particular I suspect it might just be a low yield route with out much call for J but hey, who knows!!.....I would love to see it!
 
tommybp251b
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Sun Mar 25, 2007 3:56 am

Quoting Ha763 (Reply 8):
We did see non-stop service by LH back in the early 1990s, but that didn't work out.

Are you sure about this? I red something like this here already, which later came out as not true. The only pictures of LH in HNL here in the Database are of MD-11 during the round the world Cargo flight.

Regards. Tom
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LAXdude1023
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Sun Mar 25, 2007 4:20 am

Hawaii has a very selelctive market. I really dont think a nonstop to Europe would work. One of the reasons flights from LAX and SFO to Hawaii are so successful is that we are very close. Hawaii is closer to us than the Carribiean. As a travel consultant in Los Angeles, I Cant remember the last time I had anyone inquire about the Carribiean. I get multiple Hawaii quotes a day. I have collegues in NYC, Washington DC, Atlanta, and Chicago that I have talked to and they tell me its the other way around there. People there tend to favor the Carribiean more and dont go to Hawaii much. My guess would be that when people want a relaxing vacation, they want to travel as little as possible (for the most part).

Im not saying that there isnt a market from Europe to Hawaii, Im sure there is, but look at the trouble some domestic (USA) markets have had maintaining flight to Hawaii. DL cut back OGG to one flight a day (the remaining flight is from LAX, not a DL hub), CO axed OGG (at the end, it was only flying from LAX), and even SFO is set to lose a DL flight to HNL. I really dont think (unless its a charter) the airlines would be wise to start a nonstop from Europe to HNL.
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dutchjet
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Sun Mar 25, 2007 5:08 am

Quoting Ha763 (Reply 8):
We did see non-stop service by LH back in the early 1990s, but that didn't work out.

LH ran a handful of training/proving flights with the A342 from FRA to HNL......no scheduled passenger service was ever offered.

The only flight that ever operated from Honolulu to anywhere in Europe was the very shortlived Western Airlines flight that operated HNL-ANC-LGW....the flight operated 2 days a week (I think) with a DC-10-10 (yes, a series 10 aircraft)......there were load restrictions on the ANC-LGW segment, but it never really mattered since loads on the flight were so minimal. The flight operated for a couple of seasons and was dropped due to lack of interest.

This was many many years ago (I am thinking late 1970s) and times have changed......but, as I have stated above, I just dont see any airline opening up a London-Honolulu flight on a nonstop basis.
 
ha763
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Sun Mar 25, 2007 5:16 am

Quoting TommyBP251b (Reply 21):
Quoting Ha763 (Reply 8):
We did see non-stop service by LH back in the early 1990s, but that didn't work out.

Are you sure about this? I red something like this here already, which later came out as not true. The only pictures of LH in HNL here in the Database are of MD-11 during the round the world Cargo flight.

Regards. Tom

Yes. I have posted the information here before. LH announced the route in Oct. 1992 and flew the route for about 2 years with an A340-200. As the state does with any new non-stop international service, there was a special arrival greeting with the governor and mayor in attendance, a hula performance, and a lei for every pax.
 
BA380
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Sun Mar 25, 2007 6:00 am

I concur with most posters in that Hawaii is just a hell of a long way from London. According to my estimates, a flight from LHR to HNL would take about 13h50m and cover 11 timezone changes, in comparison to, for example, about 7h40m to St Lucia or Antigua and 5 timezones. So it is so much easier to feel 'human' again quickly if you fly to Antigua than Honolulu.

FWIW. I have flown to the Caribbean quite a few times and always feel completly normal the day after I arrive, whereas when I flew to HNL (via LAX) I felt jet-lagged for a good 2-3 days (although I was only there 4 days, so only had one day of not feeling tired in the daytime!).

On that basis, I would infinitely prefer my hols in the Caribbean as I don't lose 2 days when I get there and then 2-3 days on the way back to jetlag...
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Sun Mar 25, 2007 6:06 am

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 22):
Im not saying that there isnt a market from Europe to Hawaii, Im sure there is, but look at the trouble some domestic (USA) markets have had maintaining flight to Hawaii. DL cut back OGG to one flight a day (the remaining flight is from LAX, not a DL hub), CO axed OGG (at the end, it was only flying from LAX), and even SFO is set to lose a DL flight to HNL.

There is even debate on whether to keep direct Hawaii flights on DL to and from the SLC hub. Many including myself seriously question the yield on such flights since award seats are always in demand and frequently only available 4-6 months out. Some U.S. operations have a hard enough time, so I highly doubt you'll ever see a BA 772 from LHR or LGW coming onto the runway at HNL anytime soon.
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calpsafltskeds
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Sun Mar 25, 2007 6:29 am

Dutchjet is correct on the Western service LON-ANC-HNL and there was little market.

WA few it for a while with what they called a DC10-10 with a "low-drag package", whatever that was. Working in LAX for CO at the time I remember WA advertising that it was a virtual direct shot HNL-LON and that is correct. It only adds about 30 miles vs. a non-stop route.

WA had some crewing rules that required a double compliment of something like 16 flight attendents as the flight was over 8 hours. The FAs may have eclipsed passenger loads on some of these flights.

LON-HNL Via SEA isn't bad as it only adds only 280 miles vs. the Great Circle route. That's just a little over 30 minutes extra flying time (plus the up and down and customs clearance). However, usual timings on the SEA-HNL-SEA segment may not match traditional SEA-LON timings.

Kind of remember CO flying a DC10-10 freighter LAX-HNL-GUM-TPE with an aircraft that the government paid to have a cargo door in exchange for use by the military when needed. TPE-GUM-HNL seemed to ferry westbound and was full eastbound.
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ikramerica
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Sun Mar 25, 2007 6:46 am

People need to read the Hawaii tourism documents before making all these blanket assessments.

Brits average 11 day stays in Hawaii. There are 200 non-cruise arrivals a day. If offered a non-stop flight on BA metal, as long as it was reasonable, why would people say niet?

And nobody has addressed the cargo implications of the flight. Pax alone don't make even the USA domestic flights worthwhile. But when combined with the isolated nature of Hawaii and the produce exports of the islands, the cargo makes a big difference in whether a route is profitable.

LH trying an A342 15 years ago is not proof that an English speaking airline would not have more success with a more capable and efficient 788, for example.
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calpsafltskeds
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Sun Mar 25, 2007 7:11 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 28):
Brits average 11 day stays in Hawaii. There are 200 non-cruise arrivals a day. If offered a non-stop flight on BA metal, as long as it was reasonable, why would people say niet?

The route could be operated now with a 772ER or an Airbus. So, maybe the current aircraft are too large for the market and that's why it's not be flown today.

But, even though the 788 may be a game changer with fewer seats and much lower coasts to operate, the fact is that the yield would probably be low and may not compare favorably with other opportunities with the 788. If I were BA I think my 788's would be looking for markets with higher yields and more connection traffic.

The HNL cargo market may not generate cargo that is over 7,000 miles away. I don't think pineapples are shipped from HNL anymore and while the Euro exchange rate make make HNL a bargain for Europeans, it makes EU products overpriced vs. mainland products.
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flydreamliner
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Sun Mar 25, 2007 7:20 am

The question is though, A) is there enough routine traffic on this route? B) would there be any cargo revenue (would the aircraft not be able to carry pax and cargo that far... 787 can't carry full load full range). Also, would european tourists pay more for this flight? When you have to carry all the fuel with, you are going to need more for the trip, LHR-HNL would most likely have to cost more to run than LHR-SFO-HNL or LHR-ORD-SFO.

It just doesn't seem workable to me.
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dutchjet
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Sun Mar 25, 2007 7:28 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 28):
People need to read the Hawaii tourism documents before making all these blanket assessments.

But there are many very valid points made in this thread that give you the reasons as to why there is no nonstop flight....the most important one to consider is that many of the 200 Brits per day that arrive in Hawaii are travelling on multi-stop holidays that include many destinations other than Hawaii and would not be interested in the nonstop flight even it were available.......many are on California/Vegas/Hawaii itineraries, a good number are on Circle South pacific tours including PPT, NAN, New Zealand and/or Australian cities, and some are on round-the-world itineraries and coulbe be going to or coming from anywhere. As who is to say that all of those UK arrivals (I assume that a UK arrival is a pax with a UK passport) actually live in the UK....residents of the UK live all over the world. In addition, why do you think all of these 200 Brits would all fly this proposed London-Honolulu flight......British pax that live in the UK may live in cities other than London and many find it easier to fly EDI-EWR-HNL, or maybe some of those Brits are actually heading to Maui and would prefer to fly LHR-LAX-OGG......or, most importantly, if United or American or Delta would offer London-Hawaii tickets at a cheaper rate than your proposed nonstop, some of those 200 passengers will end up on other carriers. You know its not that simple......of the 200 arrivals per day, if BA could get 75 or so on their airplane they would be lucky, and thats not enough to operate a flight at a profit. Especially a leisure oriented flight such as this.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 28):
And nobody has addressed the cargo implications of the flight

This is a long flight, how much cargo could the airplane take in addition to its passenger load?

-----------------

I just had a similar disucssion on another thread concerning TLV-South America flights......the poster was convinced that the flights would work regardless of the arguements and theories set forth. I think that we are in the same situaiton here, if you are convinced that nonstop London-Honolulu flights will work, great, thats your opinon, and be sure to let us know when the flights commence.  Smile  Smile But, at the end of the story, thereare very good reasons why there is no nonstop flights in this market.
 
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mariner
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Sun Mar 25, 2007 7:36 am

Whether it is valid or not, LAX has acquired a dreadful reputation among some folk from Down Under who transit there on their way to Europe.

I know a number of people who will not use LAX as a transit anymore and there is evidence that some pasengers are actively booking away from LAX - SFO has a better reputation or they will go through Asia.

Since there is a moderately strong market from Oz/NZ to Hawaii - and since a lot of us like a bit of a beach vacation to break up the trip - it is possible that a one-stop to London via HNL could do quite well.

But - I thought that HNL-LGW, for example, would have been possible without Open Skies?

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AeroWesty
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Sun Mar 25, 2007 8:47 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 32):
But - I thought that HNL-LGW, for example, would have been possible without Open Skies?

Honolulu was only a U.S. gateway in Bermuda II for flights by U.K. carriers to U.K. territories in Asia, plus a few other points in the Pacific. Not as a gateway to London.
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Sokol
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Thu Mar 29, 2007 11:27 am

Northwest Airlines has service in Amsterdam AMS, Frankfurt FRA, London LGW, and Paris CDG. so Northwest can do it with A330-300's, Or A330-200's to Hawaii via Anchorage ANC. (AMS-ANC-HNL-ANC-AMS) (LGW-ANC-HNL-ANC-LGW)
(FRA-ANC-HNL-ANC-FRA) (CDG-ANC-HNL-ANC-CDG) and less time than via LAX or MSP or different Airport.

Go to take and look these destinations via ANC.

NW, UA, AA, BA, LH, or AF should do this possible.
 
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Thu Mar 29, 2007 11:50 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 23):
The only flight that ever operated from Honolulu to anywhere in Europe was the very shortlived Western Airlines flight that operated HNL-ANC-LGW....the flight operated 2 days a week (I think) with a DC-10-10 (yes, a series 10 aircraft)......there were load restrictions on the ANC-LGW segment, but it never really mattered since loads on the flight were so minimal. The flight operated for a couple of seasons and was dropped due to lack of interest.

I used to check-in that flight and the problem certainly wasn-t the loads ....there were loads of denied boardings...the problem was the yields....little business traffic other than upgrades so the yields over such a long sector were awful !

Quoting BA380 (Reply 25):
I concur with most posters in that Hawaii is just a hell of a long way from London. According to my estimates, a flight from LHR to HNL would take about 13h50m and cover 11 timezone changes, in comparison to, for example, about 7h40m to St Lucia or Antigua and 5 timezones. So it is so much easier to feel 'human' again quickly if you fly to Antigua than Honolulu.

I think problem is Hawaii is too "Americanised"....don-t get me wrong I love the U.S. but the Hawaiian experience doesn-t warrant the extra travelling time ,I just as happy with Florida or California whereas the Far East or South Africa does justify a greater travelling time for something different.
 
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Thu Mar 29, 2007 11:55 am

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 27):
CO flying a DC10-10 freighter

When did we have a DC-10-10 freighter? I know we had the -10s for passengers, but never as freighter for cargo specific(eventhough it they were CF and had cargo doors). The -10s were Pub aircraft.

As for LON-HNL. Maybe for charters. Anything is possible with the agreement going by the wayside.
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RJdxer
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Thu Mar 29, 2007 2:13 pm

Maybe if we started calling them the Sandwich Islands.....
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Will Open Skies Bring LHR/LGW-HNL?

Thu Mar 29, 2007 11:10 pm

Quoting RJdxer (Reply 37):
Maybe if we started calling them the Sandwich Islands.....

Problem is, too many folks in the U.K. might then confuse Hawaii with the South Sandwich Islands in the south Atlantic between the Falklands and Antarctica. I don't think they could envision a tropical paradise at those latitudes with penguins running around!  biggrin 
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