ghillier
Posts: 34
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 6:05 am

AA DFW - LHR?

Sat Mar 24, 2007 1:11 am

With the new "Open Skies" agreement, what are the chances of AA shifting their 2x DFW-LGW flights to Heathrow ?
 
jetdeltamsy
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RE: AA DFW - LHR?

Sat Mar 24, 2007 1:14 am

about 100%


AA has been clear for years they prefer operating at LHR.
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ikramerica
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RE: AA DFW - LHR?

Sat Mar 24, 2007 1:16 am

How about RDU. Will that remain and move to LHR?
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commavia
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RE: AA DFW - LHR?

Sat Mar 24, 2007 1:54 am

I think the likelihood of AA shifting 50/51 and 78/79 from Gatwick to Heathrow is very high. I think that, now, pretty much the only thing standing in the way of it is waiting until the Heathrow restrictions actually expire (I think now March 2008) and AA's ability to get adequate slots. If AA is willing to pay enough, which I suspect they will be, I think they will very quickly shift their flights to Heathrow from their largest and most important hub, Dallas/Fort Worth. The immense connecting opportunities alone would justify shifting the flights to Heathrow.

As for Raleigh/Durham, the future is much less certain with respect to which London airport the flight will use. I tend to think that AA will eventually shift the flight over to Heathrow for several reasons.

First and foremost, the same thing applies to Raleigh and to D/FW: the connections AA and BA could then jointly offer from RDU to cities across Europe and the world would be huge, far more than is today available via Gatwick.

Second, for simplification purposes, AA would likely prefer to shift as many flight as possible over to Heathrow where its operations are huge and it employs over 1,000 staff with a fairly large customer service group, maintenance base, etc.

Finally, if AA wants to continue to operate a 777 on RDU-London and shifts both of its DFW-London flights over to Heathrow, it will likely have to shift the RDU flights to Heathrow as well for purely scheduling purposes. Right now, the 777 that flights LGW-RDU-LGW each day is routed through LGW but originates in DFW and does a three-day DFW-LGW-RDU-LGW-DFW routing.

There are several alternatives to avoid this problem and keep the RDU flight at Gatwick, including routing a seperate 777 from DFW directly to RDU (i.e., each day send a 777 DFW-RDU-LGW-RDU-DFW) but that is hardly appealing because of the waste of the plane for a short DFW-RDU sector each day. They could also add a daily DFW-Gatwick flight in addition to 50/51 and 78/79 that are likely heading to Heathrow -- something I suspect will happen regardless of what they decide to do about the RDU flight. Although, it is likely that this third flight -- possibly 80/81 as has operated on and off for the last few years since they cancelled STL -- would be with a 767, not a 777, and then force a downgrade of the LGW-RDU route if this alternative pattern were elected.

For the foregoing reasons, I suspect -- in the end -- that even with the exceedingly high cost of getting slots at Heathrow, AA will eventually move the Raleigh flight over there.

I predict that AA's London flight schedule in 2-3 years from now will look like this:

Heathrow

AA108/109 / BOS / daily 777
AA155/156 / BOS / daily 777 (* xSat during winter)
AA50/51 / DFW / daily 777
AA78/79 / DFW / daily 777
AA134/135 / LAX / daily 777 (*summer seasonal)
AA136/137 / LAX / daily 777
AA56/67 / MIA / daily 777
AA182/113 / MIA / Saturday-only 777
AA100/101 / JFK / daily 777
AA104/105 / JFK / daily 777
AA116/115 / JFK / daily 777
AA122/107 / JFK / daily 777 (*122 xSat)
AA132/131 / JFK / daily 777
AA142/141 / JFK / daily 777 (*142 xSat)
AA46/47 / ORD / daily 777
AA66/67 / ORD / daily 777 (*66 summer seasonal)
AA86/87 / ORD / daily 777
AA90/91 / ORD / daily 777
AA98/99 / ORD / daily 777 (*99 summer seasonal)
AA174/173 / RDU / daily 777

Gatwick

AA80/81 / DFW / daily 767-300
 
ssides
Posts: 3248
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RE: AA DFW - LHR?

Sat Mar 24, 2007 2:02 am

Does anyone think the opening up of LHR would lead AA to offer more Dallas-London frequencies? Would the connecting opportunities justify 3 dailies?

AA used to have seasonal 3x daily service from DFW to LGW, with two flights on the 777 and one on the 763.
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LAXdude1023
Posts: 4460
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RE: AA DFW - LHR?

Sat Mar 24, 2007 3:42 am

I think the odds of AA shifting DFW-LON service to LHR is about 99.999%. I think AA will be willing to shell out for the slots into LHR. DFW, much like IAH, is a market that desperately needs service into LHR. I think getting service from DFW to LHR is now a huge priority for AA!!!
It is what it is...
 
airstatdfw
Posts: 335
Joined: Tue Mar 30, 2004 12:04 am

RE: AA DFW - LHR?

Sat Mar 24, 2007 4:56 am

I agree that AA will move to LHR, will BA follow suit or stay at LGW. I wonder if moving to LHR for BA will help their service into DFW.

AirStatDFW
 
tommy767
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RE: AA DFW - LHR?

Sat Mar 24, 2007 5:17 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 3):
Finally, if AA wants to continue to operate a 777 on RDU-London and shifts both of its DFW-London flights over to Heathrow, it will likely have to shift the RDU flights to Heathrow as well for purely scheduling purposes.

Do you think eventually AA would downgrade this route to a 767 or scrap it in general? I know AA has contracts with businesses on this route, but I always hear that the daily 777 goes out pretty wide open. Plus I'm sure AA could better utilize this bird on another routing.
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ConcordeBoy
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RE: AA DFW - LHR?

Sat Mar 24, 2007 5:34 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 3):
As for Raleigh/Durham, the future is much less certain with respect to which London airport the flight will use.

I'd say the future of that flight is much less certain with respect to a nonstop to LON period.

Buzz from the bees is that the subsidies on that flight have no kept up with market/fuel swings; and as such is nowhere near as lucrat9ive for AA as it once was.
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Humberside
Posts: 3223
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RE: AA DFW - LHR?

Sat Mar 24, 2007 5:47 am

Commavia - how come you think that long term, AA will keep their LGW station open for just one DFW flight
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NorthstarBoy
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RE: AA DFW - LHR?

Sat Mar 24, 2007 5:54 am

i was thinking about this concept earlier today. i'd be very surprised if they didn't switch the DFW flights to LHR, and I think if BA wants to stay competitive, assuming they don't get anti-trust immunity and partner up with AA, that their DFW flight will also switch to LHR. i can actually envision that just about all of the service from US Business markets to London will make the switch once heathrow is opened up. I can see some leisure service, such as MCO, LAS, SAN, and Phx maybe staying at Gatwick, but i'd be very surprised if CO, NW, DL and US didn't apply to switch most, if not all of their london routes to Heathrow. Finally, i would not be surprised, once the 2008 dust clears if Gatwick became the moral equivalent of Paris-Orly, a great small airport for the leisure pax.

Slightly off topic, what does anyone think the chances are of AA starting SJU-Europe once open skies comes into effect, to capture caribbean-europe traffic without sending those passengers all the way to MIami?
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jacobin777
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RE: AA DFW - LHR?

Sat Mar 24, 2007 6:04 am

Quoting NorthstarBoy (Reply 10):
Slightly off topic, what does anyone think the chances are of AA starting SJU-Europe once open skies comes into effect, to capture caribbean-europe traffic without sending those passengers all the way to MIami?

I would rather see AA start SJC-Europe service instead, but AA already tried SJC-CDG and it was miserable from the start... Sad
"Up the Irons!"
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: AA DFW - LHR?

Sat Mar 24, 2007 6:09 am

Quoting NorthstarBoy (Reply 10):
and Phx maybe staying at Gatwick

PHX's only LON service is to LHR. If it were to maintain a LGW service, my bet would be on US providing that-- though no guarantee they wouldnt want/try to have it to LHR as well.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
jfk777
Posts: 5861
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

RE: AA DFW - LHR?

Sat Mar 24, 2007 6:22 am

I would envision AA moving the main DFW to London flight to LHR then the second daily one too. They may run a 763 as a third daily trip to LGW for leisure and free award travel. That may solve the RDU problem with a 763 going DFW-LGW-RDU-LGW-DFW.
 
BigGSFO
Posts: 2214
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2005 5:27 am

RE: AA DFW - LHR?

Sat Mar 24, 2007 6:26 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 11):
I would rather see AA start SJC-Europe service instead, but AA already tried SJC-CDG and it was miserable from the start... Sad

Who knows? The economics might justify SJC-LHR. We simply don't know. Now of course if AA is the one to operate the flight is another story. Maybe BA? Who knows.
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: AA DFW - LHR?

Sat Mar 24, 2007 6:49 am

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 14):

Who knows? The economics might justify SJC-LHR. We simply don't know. Now of course if AA is the one to operate the flight is another story. Maybe BA? Who knows.

How I would love to see SJC-LHR..but the problem is that I dont' think it AA (or BA for that matter) could sustain B777 services and AA doesn't send the B767's to LHR.. no 
"Up the Irons!"