n1786b
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BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 5:06 pm

The Times is reporting that BA is waiting on AB to deliver specs on the A350-1000 and has pushed back its decision to fall 07.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...ors/engineering/article1577315.ece


"BA had hoped to announce the order this summer, but a decision is unlikely before the autumn, as the airline wants more time to consider its options."

...

However, Airbus has still not delivered the final specifications for the A350-1000, the largest of the 350 variants that the company expects to produce....
The specifications for the A350-1000 should be with BA next week. Airbus is also expected to confirm the price of the A380....

Frequency of service is a more significant factor and is likely to boost the chances of Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner and the A350."

Let's see, with that we have the following....Emirates waiting on A350 specs and now saying their order is for 2008, BA pushing their decision back AND Lufthansa giving A a second chance to beat the 787 (according to some A-netters). One has to wonder if this is simply due diligence or something more.

Qatar jumped (did anybody really expect them to order the 787 after they relinquished their slots?) and Aeroflot was a political decision.

Pass the popcorn this is going to be fun to watch.

- n1786b
 
ikramerica
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 5:10 pm

There is no urgency to order planes that will be delivered 5 years or more in the future. The only urgency at all is that other carriers might order and take up slots, but Boeing is making many statements about how they think they will have increased output, so some carriers seem willing to wait.

The 350-1000 seems to be the plane that airlines are focusing on. Airlines that didn't jump on the 77W yet, and may not want a plane as small as the 787-8. But then there's also the possibility that a company like BA would order both the 787-8/9 and the 350-1000, as they really do serve different markets.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
PM
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 5:29 pm

Quoting N1786b (Thread starter):
One has to wonder if this is simply due diligence or something more.

Sensible airlines will mull over the following.

* Boeing are on a roll. The 787 is a winner and the 777-300ER is the right plane at the right time.
* Airbus have stubbed their toe with the A380 but the problems seem more to do with production than performance.
* The A340 was a dead-end for Airbus but the A330 is a winner.

What does the above suggest about the A350?

Will it be an A340  Sad , an A380  optimist  /  pessimist  or an A330  bigthumbsup  ?

There must be a fair chance that Airbus will bounce back with an A350 that is - for some airlines - worth waiting for. If I was running BA I'd wait to see what the A350-1000 could offer.

(Actually, if I was running BA I'd buy anything that came with RR engines but that's another story.)
 
LifelinerOne
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 5:56 pm

Quoting N1786b (Thread starter):
Frequency of service is a more significant factor and is likely to boost the chances of Boeing's 787 Dreamliner and the A350."

That's a rather selective quote because this is only about the flights to the US. The article also says that the A380 could be attractive for flights to Asia and Australia.

The article also says that the A350 is the new competitor for the B777, which makes it one of the first media to get that part of the A350-program right.  Wink

It are interesting times and it's interesting to see that Airbus has been able to "tickle" airlines to wait and see what kind of plane the A350-1000 is going to be. I hope Airbus is giving them enough at the end of this week. Delaying your order to fall is also convenient because the B787 have flown by then so you'll have some real data.

Pass the popcorn indeed!

Cheers!  wave 
Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
 
columba
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 6:00 pm

Quoting N1786b (Thread starter):
However, Airbus has still not delivered the final specifications for the A350-1000, the largest of the 350 variants that the company expects to produce....
The specifications for the A350-1000 should be with BA next week. Airbus is also expected to confirm the price of the A380....

Interesting that BA is interested in the A350-1000 given the fact that they don´t operate any 777-300s or A340-600s.
If I understand the quote right only the final specifications of the -1000 are missing. So can we asume that the specifications of the -800 and -900 are done ?
Would be interesting if BA choose Airbus for longhaul and later replaces its A32x with the 737RS

[Edited 2007-03-28 11:24:55]
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
zvezda
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 7:12 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 2):
Will it be an A340 Sad , an A380 optimist / pessimist or an A330 bigthumbsup ?

Huh?

The A330 is certainly a winner for Airbus and a great airliner. The A340 probably earned a profit for Airbus, but not a large enough RoI to justify the investment in hindsight. The A340 is neither a winner nor a loser unless one considers that it killed the 747-400, which was good for Airbus. The WhaleJet is shaping up to be the biggest failure in the history of commercial aviation. Airbus will probably lose somewhere in the range of $10 to 20 billion on the program. No other commercial aviation fiasco has ever come close to having wasted that much money.

As for the A350, it's looking good. There is no reason to doubt that the A350-1000 will match the CASM of the 787-10 and beat that of the 747-8 and the WhaleJet.

[Edited 2007-03-28 12:43:26]
 
scouseflyer
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 7:22 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 4):
So can we asume that the specifications of the -800 and -900 are done ?

Complete guess this but could it be to do with the fact that RR and GE have both signed up for the 800 and 900 but only rr have signed for the 1000 and GE is still saying "chase me!"
 
PM
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 7:27 pm

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 6):
Complete guess this but could it be to do with the fact that RR and GE have both signed up for the 800 and 900 but only rr have signed for the 1000 and GE is still saying "chase me!"

I believe I'm right in saying that GE signed up for the old A350 but have not yet committed themselves to any version of the XWB.
 
scouseflyer
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 7:32 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 7):
I believe I'm right in saying that GE signed up for the old A350 but have not yet committed themselves to any version of the XWB.

Oooooppppsss well I was sorta right!
 
PM
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 7:42 pm

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 8):
Oooooppppsss well I was sorta right!

I'll generally settle for that!
 
karan69
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 7:55 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
There is no urgency to order planes that will be delivered 5 years or more in the future. The only urgency at all is that other carriers might order and take up slots,

Bingo, and in the case of the A350-1000 it is a good 7-8 years away.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
company like BA would order both the 787-8/9 and the 350-1000, as they really do serve different markets.

I dont see that happening, i think it will either be 787-8, 787-10, 747-8, A380 [i dont see them ordering the 787-9, somehow their route structure and aircraft configurations does not require an aircraft between 788 and 787-10] and if they go Airbus it will be 358 359 3510 A380, i just have an inclination that the A380 is imminent in BAs future, may not be now but definitly a decade later we will see A380s in BA colours.

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 3):
The article also says that the A350 is the new competitor for the B777,

Any update on the upgrades Boeing is gonna make to its 777 programme., Also does anyone have any figures/links as to how the 787-9/10 compare to the 772ER and the 350-1000 to the 77W.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 5):
The A340 is neither a winner nor a loser unless one considers that it killed the 747-400, which was good for Airbus.

Also it[A340-300] was initially built as a competitor to the 747-200/300s and it was successfully in beating the MD-11s/DC-10s etc..and was a more than capable replacement for them, if it were not for the 340-300 Boeing would not have bothered to build the final winner of the Category the 777 series.


Karan
 
EI321
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:24 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 5):
The A340 probably earned a profit for Airbus, but not a large enough RoI to justify the investment in hindsight.


have a few questions:

- What was the total cost of developing the A340, ie half the cost of the original A330/A340 programme & the full cost of the newer A340 models.

- What would be the long term opportunity cost to airbus, had they not developed the A340, and all existing A340 customers had instead bought MD11s or 777s?

[Edited 2007-03-28 13:44:52]
 
columba
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:44 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 11):
How much was the A340 investment?

Hard to say because the A340-200/-300 were developed together with the A330. It was one programme.
Later Airbus developed the 340-500 and -600 which have many differences over the older 340/330s series.
I don´t know if the A340NG development paid off but the whole A330/A340 programme is a real success .
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
EI321
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:46 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 12):
I don´t know if the A340NG development paid off but the whole A330/A340 programme is a real success .

The A340-500 & A340-600 cost about $2.5b to develop.
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 9:16 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
There is no urgency to order planes that will be delivered 5 years or more in the future. The only urgency at all is that other carriers might order and take up slots, but Boeing is making many statements about how they think they will have increased output, so some carriers seem willing to wait.

Which makes me believe that Danny might very well have the truth of the matter - BA and EK do not have 787 delivery slots and at this time will not be able to get planes until the A350XWB's EIS without a production increase at Boeing or a shifting of models (from earlier 787-8's to later 787-9's/787-10's) from existing customers so, at this time, they have nothing to lose by waiting as chances are more and more airlines also seeing 787 delivery dates approaching the A350XWB's EIS might as well see what Airbus can offer.
 
keesje
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 9:34 pm

I think BA focused on the A350-900 and know what they wanted to know but wants to make sure the A350-1000 could be a good growth option in the longer term. If BA stays loyal to RR that might be an advantage for the A350.

Regarding the 787, the 787-9 seems an excellent aircraft to me but is significantly smaller then BA´s current large 777-200ER fleet. BA aircraft generally have a low cabin density, so if they think 9 abreast is too narrow for World Traveller there is an issues. A 787-10 would seem necessary to realize the necessary seat capacity. I´m not sure the -10 would be suitable for BA´s Asia network.

A´s secret weapon behind many A350/A380 deals, "proven low CASM A330´s next year" might play a role again. BA nearly fell for it a few months ago..

On the other hand, I think the open skies future across the Atlantic might have significant influence on BA's long term fleet plan. I can imagine smaller aircraft like the 787-8-/-9 might have improved their chances with BA.

I (still) think that if the 787's were launched 10% bigger the 787 family would be a stronger option for airlines like BA.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
EI321
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 9:52 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 15):
I (still) think that if the 787's were launched 10% bigger the 787 family would be a stronger option for airlines like BA.

EK & LH also complained that it was too small I believe. Hovever, the 787 is designed to replace the 767 so it cant be too big.
 
CX747
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 9:53 pm

Since when did the A340 kill the 747-400?
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
EI321
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 9:58 pm

Quoting CX747 (Reply 17):
Since when did the A340 kill the 747-400?

it was not just the A340, the 777 has had the same effect.
 
CXfirst
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 10:15 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
the 787-8/9 and the 350-1000, as they really do serve different markets.

That's true. The 787-8 will be in the size range of the 767, A330, while the A350-1000 will be in the 777-300ER market. That's quite a difference. Anyhow, because of fleet comminality, I believe that they will ever get the A350 or the 787, not the best of two worlds.

-CXfirst
 
deltadc9
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 10:21 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 18):
it was not just the A340, the 777 has had the same effect.

People seem to overlook the fact that it was simply time to upgrade the 400 after 5-600 were sold. Boeing just could not find one version enough airlines could agree to until the 800 which took a painfully long time. This is also a factor.

Another factor is the fact that with so many sold, the market was satisfied until the 400s got long in the tooth. If the the 380 sold like the 744 sold it would see a major dip in sales once everyone that wanted one got one, or has that already happened?  duck 

Business cycles and competition let to the slow sales.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 10:54 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 15):
Regarding the 787, the 787-9 seems an excellent aircraft to me but is significantly smaller then BA´s current large 777-200ER fleet. BA aircraft generally have a low cabin density, so if they think 9 abreast is too narrow for World Traveller there is an issues.

BA uses 17.5" wide seats in World Traveler on both their 777s and 747s, so 17.2 on the 787 in 3+3+3 would pretty much match the 777 product in width. And dropping a few seats would improve RASM by raising the average fare paid.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 15):
A´s secret weapon behind many A350/A380 deals, "proven low CASM A330´s next year" might play a role again. BA nearly fell for it a few months ago..

I think BA is going to stick with the 772ER until the next generation arrives (that they took options reinforces this belief), be it the 787 or A350XWB, so I do not believe Airbus will be able to use the A333 as a sweetener as it has on other orders.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 15):
I (still) think that if the 787's were launched 10% bigger the 787 family would be a stronger option for airlines like BA.



Quoting EI321 (Reply 16):
EK & LH also complained that it was too small I believe. Hovever, the 787 is designed to replace the 767 so it cant be too big.

The 7E7 was closer to the 767, but airlines wanted something closer to the 764/A332 and A333/A343 so the 787-8 and 787-9 grew, but Boeing also put in place future growth with the 787-10, 787-11, and even a conceivable (but extremely unlikely) 787-12. The 787-10 might not have the raw range of the A350XWB-900, but it will have 772ER capacity and range with much better operating economics (better, if only slightly, then the A350XWB on similar sectors, I imagine, thanks to lower weight and less thirsty engines).

And if the 787-10 can carry more payload out to 7500nm then the 772ER can, at a price cheaper then the 772LR, it could be a popular replacement step and blunt Airbus' attempts to muscle in on the market, at least with current 777 operators (it should prove quite popular with A340 operators, of course).
 
airfrnt
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 10:55 pm

Between BA's sudden decision to push the contest out and EK's, Airbus must have gone to carriers and said "the specs for the 350-1000 won't be available for 6 months" hoping to freeze any contracts out there in place. Not a new tactic, in fact Airbus has already one it twice just with the 350. IT can backfire... The AC and NW deals occurred under the first freeze, while the SQ deal occurred under the second.
 
gokmengs
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 11:10 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 5):
The WhaleJet is shaping up to be the biggest failure in the history of commercial aviation. Airbus will probably lose somewhere in the range of $10 to 20 billion on the program. No other commercial aviation fiasco has ever come close to having wasted that much money.

Zvezda my friend. Here you go with your "WhaleJet" predictions Wink I don't know how you write off such a big project that has at least 30 years life span this early. Did the A380 project hit major bumps on the road? Absolutely. Does that warrant a complete failure of the program? Absolutely not. Airbus has many years to sell and further develop(think A389, or A380R) since they over engineered the A388. I think many 744 operators of today that hasn't ordered the A380 yet will order sometime during the programs life span, BA being one of them.
As far as the A350, BA and others seem to be interested in the 350-1000 variant, but BA being a 767 operator its not far fetched to see them operating a mix of 787's and A350's am I wrong?
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sebolino
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 11:19 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 5):
The A340 is neither a winner nor a loser unless one considers that it killed the 747-400, which was good for Airbus. The WhaleJet is shaping up to be the biggest failure in the history of commercial aviation.

LOL

Your opinion about the Jumbojet and the A380 really interests me !! And you don't sound biased at all  Smile  Smile
 
dutchjet
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 11:24 pm

There is more going on here..........BA is not ordering an airplane in the A350/787 category at this moment because, from an economic and financial point of view, its NOT a good time to order airplanes in this category.

1. The 787 is wildly popular, with airlines fighting over delivery spots, and Boeing has more orders for the airplane than it really knows what to do with at this moment......and its safe to say that Boeing has more 787 commitments than are listed on its website. While Boeing wants to protect its business and marketshare, Boeing has no reason to make ""killer deals"" on the 787, even for good customers such as BA......I am sure that Boeing has offered the 787 to BA at attractive prices, but the prices are certainly not good enough to be considered ""an offer that is too good to refuse."" Thus, BA can wait.

2. There is still a lot unknown about the A350 program and especially the largest A350-1000 variant....and BA is certainly not going to sign up for a speculative airplane. BA has said it really is longer interested in being a lanch customer, and it absolutely will not sign up for a paper airplane with a tentative design. Why should it? Although many believe that Airbus is willing to make amazing deals to get the A350 program back on track, Airbus cannot and will not mortgage its future by making non-profitable deals concerning the A350 (and especially the -1000 variant which is 7 or more years away). Thus, BA is playing and ""wait and see"" concerning the A350 program.

3. BA is in NO rush and has time to review its options......BA's 772ER fleet is very effecient and well suited for the future, BA just ordered 4 additional 772ERs with 4 more options to cover expansion, BA's 763ERs have just been updated (longhaul) and while the 763ER may not be cutting edge, its a hell of a good airplane and is very effecient on the missions to which it is assigned. And, if BA needs more capacity it can always look to the second hand market for additonal aircraft....consider the rumor about BA and the SAA RR powered 744s that was circulating a couple of weeks ago. (BA has done this before, remember when they leased just about every 733 and 735 that they could find to increase short haul capacity until the new A32Xs were delivered).

4. My guess is that we will see a 748I or A380 order from BA before BA sorts out the 787/A350 situation.....the fact that BA ordered additional 772ERs and did not move along to the 773ER, I think, was a signal that BA needs something bigger than the 773ER for its high demand routes out of slot constrained LHR.....BA has all of those 744s flying around and increased frequency is not the answer here, thus I think that the 748I/A380 situation takes priority. I could even imagine a scenaio where BA passes on the 787/A350 for now.....and replaces the 763ERs with 772ERs, 748Is replace the the 772ERs now flying the prior 763ER routes and also replace the majority of the 744 fleet.....and later, the A380 is ordered by BA for the highest demand routes to replace the newest 744s. (Only after all of this is done will BA look to the largest of the A350/787 variants to replace the 772ER fleet.)

Thus, over time BA could move from a 763ER/772ER/744 fleet to a 772ER/748I/A380 fleet over time. Seriously, LHR is not getting less crowded.....big airplanes are the future at that airport.

[Edited 2007-03-28 16:58:24]
 
coa747
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Wed Mar 28, 2007 11:42 pm

We have seen this game before. Airlines waiting for the latest round of A350 specs only to be burned later and fall further down the line, i.e. Singapore. I for one wouldn't wait too long to make a deicsion as all bets are off when the US carriers start placing orders for the 787 like American and Delta. BA and others could very well find itself even farther down the line if Airbus doesn't deliver specs on time. I'm all for weighing the two options but at some point you have to consider the track record of the A350 project. I have a feeling that once the 787 is in service and performing as advertised it will be hard for BA to sit on the sideline.
 
EI321
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 12:18 am

Quoting Coa747 (Reply 26):
I have a feeling that once the 787 is in service and performing as advertised it will be hard for BA to sit on the sideline.

They were, and still are going to order one or the other before either enters service, so in service performance wont happen in time to influence the order.

Also, whats this about BA not wanting to be a launch customer? They will be ordering 787/A350 and A380/748 before any of them actually enter service, and when all of them already have launch customers.
 
flysherwood
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 12:36 am

Quoting Gokmengs (Reply 23):
Did the A380 project hit major bumps on the road? Absolutely. Does that warrant a complete failure of the program? Absolutely not. Airbus has many years to sell and further develop(think A389, or A380R) since they over engineered the A388.

They better hurry then. They have 23 years left if what you say about it being a 30 year project is correct. Let's see; if what Mr. Leahy says is true, and I emphasize TRUE, their goal is to sell 20+ units per year. It will take them another 13 years just to break even. Of course, when was the last time 20 were sold in one year. I know 25 were cancelled in the last 8 months between Fed EX, UPS and ILFC. I know this really bothers many Airbus afficionados on A.net but Zvezda is probably spot on. Airbus needs to pin their future on the A350XWB and all of its variants.
 
deltadc9
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 12:38 am

Quoting Gokmengs (Reply 23):
I don't know how you write off such a big project that has at least 30 years life span this early.

Didnt they say that about the L1011?

Nothing is a given, no matter how good it is.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
gokmengs
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 12:43 am

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 28):
I know this really bothers many Airbus afficionados on A.net but Zvezda is probably spot on. Airbus needs to pin their future on the A350XWB and all of its variants.

I'm far from being a "Airbus Aficionado" trust me, if thats what you are implying so let me get that out of the way first. All I believe is its really to early to write the A380 Program off. You think Airbus will stop pushing or further developing the aircraft, in an effort to maximize profits or minimize losses?

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 28):
They have 23 years left if what you say about it being a 30 year project is correct.

I'm not saying that its an industry standard. To be honest with you its actually 30+ years. Look at the the 747, years after years it has been the workhorse and its still going. Wouldn't you agree?
Gercekleri Tarih Yazar Tarihide Galatasaray
 
deltadc9
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 12:53 am

Quoting Gokmengs (Reply 30):
Look at the the 747, years after years it has been the workhorse and its still going. Wouldn't you agree?

No one planned, or could have even conceived the kind of success the 747 has seen with 1500 copies sold. Boeing was prepared but had no idea the scale of the opportunity that awaited.

I dont know if Airbus will have that kind of luck.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
DAYflyer
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 12:53 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 15):
I (still) think that if the 787's were launched 10% bigger the 787 family would be a stronger option for airlines like BA.

While the -10 may be suitable for some, the market has spoken regarding the size of the 787 -8 & -9.
One Nation Under God
 
andessmf
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 1:07 am

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 3):
The article also says that the A350 is the new competitor for the B777

It is the only airplane they have a chance against, since they will be years later than the 787. If Airbus had only aimed the A350 against the 787, they would have gotten killed by now. Very similar to the 767/A330 scenario, where the A330 provides higher capacity than the 767 and very little actual comparisons can be done with the two.

Quoting CX747 (Reply 17):
Since when did the A340 kill the 747-400?

Since the 767, 777, MD-11, A330 came along.

Quoting Gokmengs (Reply 30):
Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 28):
They have 23 years left if what you say about it being a 30 year project is correct.

I'm not saying that its an industry standard. To be honest with you its actually 30+ years. Look at the the 747, years after years it has been the workhorse and its still going.

But there are really no 30+ year old passenger 747s flying around now, and the old 747s airframes are used for freight work, something which has not been proven viable with the A380.
 
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 1:46 am

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 33):
But there are really no 30+ year old passenger 747s flying around now, and the old 747s airframes are used for freight work, something which has not been proven viable with the A380.

Sorry for not being clear. I was referring to the life span of the PROGRAM, not an individual 747 frame.

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 30):
No one planned, or could have even conceived the kind of success the 747 has seen with 1500 copies sold. Boeing was prepared but had no idea the scale of the opportunity that awaited.

I dont know if Airbus will have that kind of luck.

Fair and probably right assumption, but if the A380 can be half as successful as the 747(700+frames) it would be a success IMO. Probably profitable at that rate also. Correct?
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 2:08 am

Quoting Coa747 (Reply 26):
I'm all for weighing the two options but at some point you have to consider the track record of the A350 project.

Consultant Scott Hamilton said Airbus has work to do before prospects for the A350 can be regarded as promising.

"...the A380, without a doubt, is a really nice airplane," Hamilton said. "But it has yet to go into service, and the A350 is even further away from going into service, and until it does everybody will be wondering if Airbus will have the same sort of [delays] with the A350 as with the A380."


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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 2:13 am

Quoting Gokmengs (Reply 34):
Fair and probably right assumption, but if the A380 can be half as successful as the 747(700+frames) it would be a success IMO. Probably profitable at that rate also. Correct?

Assuming they sold them all in one family and had no further development cost. The problem for the A380 will be that they will have completed 80 or so of them by the end of the decade. They state break even at 420, though this is probably low, that would put them 340 frames from break even at the end of 2010. That is 7 and 1/2 years production, ie about 2017 or so, just to break even on the program.

Hoenstly the break even point is probably further out but not that important. The plane will produce revenue if it is being built and the development cost is already gone.

The problem for them to make it a successful program is this. Boeing will likley be looking to put out its own 777/747 replacement by sometime in the next decade (2010-2020). Lets say Boeing does not get around to announcing this for 8 years. That still puts them launching such a program in about 2015-2017 range, basically right about the time Airbus starts to break even on the A380.

Do you think anyone is going to order more A380's in the mid to late 2010's if a CFRP 777/747 replacement is being offered for purchase by 2020?

Airbus has mised revenue because it has missed the sweet spot to sell the A380. Regardless of how well it would have sold it would have had much better prospects if they were on pace to be about done with the current orders by 2010 rather than the current pace that will have them finish in 2012.

Airbus would be wise to fold up the program after the 800 model and not pursue any further development. The product will not be competitive with the new CFRP large aircraft that will be comming. The long term success of the A380, and really any program, is contingent on getting the family of aircraft developed. The problem is that any further investment in the A380 is not likley to produce a plane that could be build before 2012-2013 at the earliest and if you start doing that you have not even come close to breaking even on the 800 model.

The A380 is just the biggest example of yesterdays technology and production method. As such any more money spent developing it would be wasted. Get what you can out of the 800 and get out.
 
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 2:20 am

Quoting Gokmengs (Reply 34):
Probably profitable at that rate also. Correct?

Yes, but a good percentage of the 747 success has had to do with the freighter program, and that part of the A380 program is very uncertain at the moment.
 
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 2:22 am

Quoting Karan69 (Reply 10):
Also it[A340-300] was initially built as a competitor to the 747-200/300s and it was successfully in beating the MD-11s/DC-10s etc..and was a more than capable replacement for them, if it were not for the 340-300 Boeing would not have bothered to build the final winner of the Category the 777 series.

What are you talking about?? Boeing ALWAYS from day one intended on stretching the 777 to what became the -300 series. Boeing didn't decided several years down the line to stretch the 777 because of competition from the A340. It was always planned. Get your facts straight buddy.

Quoting CX747 (Reply 17):
Since when did the A340 kill the 747-400?

I would like an answer to that as well.
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 2:35 am

Quoting NW727251ADV (Reply 37):
What are you talking about?? Boeing ALWAYS from day one intended on stretching the 777 to what became the -300 series. Boeing didn't decided several years down the line to stretch the 777 because of competition from the A340. It was always planned. Get your facts straight buddy.

Karan69 said absolutely nothing about Boeing stretching the 777, all he pointed out was that without the A340 on the market, Boeing would have had significantly less pressure to build a plane between the 767 and the 747. What facts didn't he get straight?

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Birdseed
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 2:47 am

Indeed.

I think it's fairly clear that the A340 should have been a much better aircraft than it is (arguably the 500/600s were a late attempt by Airbus to compete with the 777...and even then they can't.) To say the A340 killed the jumbo is ridiculous and this is obvious even from a basic knowledge of the timescale we're talking here.

With regard to BA and the A350 though, BA are quite right to wait for the specs. If it's better than the 787, they should get it; if the 787 is better, get those. It has also been suggested that the 787/A350 is not big enough to replace 777s. That is not what BA want to do. They are replacing 767s and some fairly aged, well-used 747s.
 
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 3:00 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 15):
I (still) think that if the 787's were launched 10% bigger the 787 family would be a stronger option for airlines like BA

That thought has always struck me too. I'm a big supporetr of both the 787 and the A350 programs, but looking at BAs current fleet, they seem to be swaying towards bigger a/c. If there were a huge 757/767 operator such as AA or CO, then I would expect them to make an order for the 787. But the fact of the matter is BA only operate a minor number of 763ERs, and could operate more if they had the need (QF has a few of BA owned birds). We never hear that BA are desperate for 767's, we only really hear they are desperate for 747/777. I may be worng, but Ive thought about this for a while, I don't think BA will go for the 787/789 and if they do I feel it may only be for a small amount. I do think howerver, that they will look long and hard at maybe a few 788s and a huge amount of 787-10, to replace the earlier 772s, but even then, the 777 is not a dated airplane and BA might as well do as they are and get a few more 777s until they see what Boeing or Airbus can offer. Thats why I think they will take a long look at the A350 and it's variants, they may suit the BA fleet a lot more than the 787 will. I really hate to say it, but I would be very surprised if we see a big 787 order, or at least not the smaller variants. The thought has only really just struck me and it goes back on a lot of things I have said before, but I think the 787 is just too small for BA's needs. Its a 767 replacement, and BA dont really use that many

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 25):

I agree once again, I think you've hit the nail here, especially concerning BA biding its time and lettin the manufacturers churn out a better deal, but if its a deal BA are looking for, that further backs up my theory that they will go Airbus
 
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 3:04 am

Quoting NW727251ADV (Reply 38):
What are you talking about?? Boeing ALWAYS from day one intended on stretching the 777 to what became the -300 series. Boeing didn't decided several years down the line to stretch the 777 because of competition from the A340. It was always planned. Get your facts straight buddy.

Mate before you tell me to get my facts straight, i guess you should clearly read that i write only about the 343, and how the 777 family was launched which became the eventual winner in the category of the aircrafts [343/MD-11s/772ERs],

Not at one place do i mention the 77W or any competition it has between the 346--we all know who won that battle.

Also i meant what SCRBMI [thanks btw] has mentioned .

So next time please read carefully before offering advice to anybody.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 38):
Karan69 said absolutely nothing about Boeing stretching the 777, all he pointed out was that without the A340 on the market, Boeing would have had significantly less pressure to build a plane between the 767 and the 747. What facts didn't he get straight?

Thanks a lot for helping someone understand my statement and helping me get my facts right  wink   wink 

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 36):
Do you think anyone is going to order more A380's in the mid to late 2010's if a CFRP 777/747 replacement is being offered for purchase by 2020?

But havent Boeing already launched the 747 replacement, in the 748-Intercontinental, altough i am certain their 77W and 737RS replacements will be the most awaited ones.

Karan
 
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 3:14 am

Did I miss any reply inhere, but there´s great news for QR n the 350XWB who´s gonna get 80 of them, the order will be confirmed at the Paris Air Show

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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 3:16 am

Quoting Gokmengs (Reply 33):
Fair and probably right assumption, but if the A380 can be half as successful as the 747(700+frames) it would be a success IMO. Probably profitable at that rate also. Correct?

Yes, I would think so. Adding in the support income from each frame, and other benifits above and beyond the sticker price 700 would make it very successful.

One frame over break even to a certain number I am not sure of occupy the questionable territory between success and loss maker. My gut says the 380 lands in there somewhere and it will be argued by the children of many of the posters here whether or not the 380 was a success or failure.
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 3:27 am

Quoting Karan69 (Reply 41):
But havent Boeing already launched the 747 replacement, in the 748-Intercontinental, altough i am certain their 77W and 737RS replacements will be the most awaited ones.

The 747-8 is an improvement to an already existing product. Were I in Boeing's position you use that to basically bleed off business from the A380 for the time being.

What I think it does is give them time to work the kinks out of the 787 and 737RS aircraft. When the introduce Y3 as a replacement for the streched 777's and the 747 they will likley start it at a capacity right above the 787-10, say 350 for example. They could then strech a variant of it to somewhere between 425-475 seats to replace the 747.

You build the first model with the explicit intent to compete with the A350-1000. If Boeing starts work on this product 6-8 years from now, ie 2013-2015 it is not beyond the realm of reason to think they would be putting Y3's on sale about the same time as Airbus starts getting the big A350's out the door.
 
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 3:40 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 43):
One frame over break even to a certain number I am not sure of occupy the questionable territory between success and loss maker. My gut says the 380 lands in there somewhere and it will be argued by the children of many of the posters here whether or not the 380 was a success or failure.

As an investor I would not qualify the A380 a success unless it could bring me at least a return equal to what I could have gotten just sitting my money on the bond market or in a bank. For 12 Billion dollars that would mean a profit of several billion dollars. A few tens of millions in the black is a horrible failure in ever sense of the word. Unless it is just an employment program in which case you are fine if you break even.
 
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 4:46 am

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 45):
For 12 Billion dollars

...actually, its up to $18-$20 billion dollars now.... Wink
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 6:33 am

Competition has spurred on the manufacturers well.

Airbus pioneer the WB twin market with the A300 and A310, but are outsold by the 767.

The A330/343 prove popular enough to push MD into Boeing's arms, and force Boeing to produce something better than their earlier proposed 767X, i.e. the excellent 777.

Airbus stretch the A340 to produce the A346, which is a 747 rival, albeit a bit smaller, Boeing and GE respond with the better 773ER.

The success of the A330 means Boeing, instead of incremental programmes like the reengined 767-400ERX comes up with the all new 787. The success of this plane causes Airbus to scrap it's incremental A350, and go for something much better.

The A3510 could be an interesting model for many airlines, such as BA. LHR will get more crowded, not less, slots will become even more expensive, once the US carriers pile in, and 4 class cabins take up more room. Isn't the current proposed 7810 a simple stretch, with the same engines as the 789, so perhaps not as capable?
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deltadc9
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RE: BA Waits For A350 Specs And Delays Order

Thu Mar 29, 2007 6:42 am

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 45):
As an investor I would not qualify the A380 a success unless it could bring me at least a return equal to what I could have gotten just sitting my money on the bond market or in a bank. For 12 Billion dollars that would mean a profit of several billion dollars. A few tens of millions in the black is a horrible failure in ever sense of the word. Unless it is just an employment program in which case you are fine if you break even.

That is why I am saying the real break (point of success) even is much higher that the recovery of the expenses, hense the grey area that will be argued about.

Dont forget opportunity costs of say developing a new NB and a market driven 350 instead of the 380. How do you calculate that?

That alone could equal the outlay mentioned below....

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 46):
actually, its up to $18-$20 billion dollars now

Ouch, did not know that....
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