columba
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Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 3:59 pm

EADS co-chief executive Louis Gallois, who is also CEO of Airbus said he still expects to land a total 20 new orders for the A380 super-jumbo in 2007.

In an interview with regional daily La Depeche du Midi, Gallois also repeated criticism of EADS' dual-CEO structure, but warned that a move to a 'more normal' form of governance 'will take time.

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nach...ichten-2007-03/artikel-7991721.asp
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scouseflyer
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 4:09 pm

Quoting Columba (Thread starter):
EADS co-chief executive Louis Gallois, who is also CEO of Airbus said he still expects to land a total 20 new orders for the A380 super-jumbo in 2007.

That's what they said last year (before all of the delays), hopefully they're going to be ok this year - I'm looking forwards to Paris air show this summer - I think it may be described as an "orgy of spending" like 2005 was!
 
manni
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 4:15 pm

That sounds like a very careful estimate, just like their A350XWB estimate, unless he's talking about net orders (that would mean 30, after the cancellation of UPS). That the A380 isn't entering commercial service before the end of the year might play a role that they forecast that 2007 will be another quiet year for A380 sales. Wonder who he has in mind. QR, LH and EY could add a few. QR's CEO is on record saying he will excercise his 2 options and is considering ordering more. There's got to be a new customer aswell. BA perhaps?
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columba
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Ye

Fri Mar 30, 2007 4:17 pm

Since he is talking about new orders I don´t believe he meant orders from existing customers such as a follow-on order by LH and QR.
For new customers I can think of 10 aircraft for BA and maybe another ten for CX as a possibility.

[Edited 2007-03-30 09:22:11]
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scouseflyer
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 4:18 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 3):
I believe 10 aircraft for BA are a huge possibility and maybe another ten for CX.

and the follow-ons for LH and QR - fianlly the A380 will start moving again in sales terms (possibly!)
 
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PM
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 4:20 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 3):
I believe 10 aircraft for BA are a huge possibility and maybe another ten for CX.

CX have said that they won't be ordering much for a year or two - though I see them as an A380 operator in the medium to long-term.

The twenty could easily be 10 for BA and 10 options for LH. That seems quite a conservative prediction to me.
 
CrazyHorse
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 4:20 pm

Only new orders?
Okay, this is one big order (only BA comes in my mind) and two or three small orders (SAA, Chinese carriers,..). I think this could be a very difficult mission for Airbus and the A380 program.
The only order for the A380 this year could be BA, and maybe some options from LH. The big US-Carriers will not order the A380, CX also not this year, the Japanese carriers also not, the big european carriers has ordered the A380, also the Asian carriers.
Only SAA could be an option for Airbus.
 
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 4:25 pm

Quoting CrazyHorse (Reply 6):
the big european carriers has ordered the A380, also the Asian carriers.

Asiana has ben touted as a possibility and then there is Air China. On Taiwan, might China Airlines go for it one day?

Then there are "out of the blue" orders. Who saw Kingfisher coming?

With a BA order this year (which is looking increasingly likely) 20 orders shouldn't be hard to achieve. Without one it'll be a lot harder.
 
scouseflyer
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 4:32 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 7):
Then there are "out of the blue" orders. Who saw Kingfisher coming?

We should of predicted it though, Kingfisher order 5 of everything that Airbus makes  Big grin  Big grin Big grin Big grin Big grin Big grin
 
Thorben
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 4:35 pm

I think there are a bunch of candidates out there:

Qatar
Etihad
Lufthansa
British
China Eastern
Air China
China Airlines
Asiana
Jet Airways
Cathay

and many more.


Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 1):
That's what they said last year (before all of the delays), hopefully they're going to be ok this year - I'm looking forwards to Paris air show this summer - I think it may be described as an "orgy of spending" like 2005 was!

I think this one will be a lot better than 2005. Can't wait until it starts.
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CrazyHorse
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 4:49 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 7):
Asiana has ben touted as a possibility and then there is Air China. On Taiwan, might China Airlines go for it one day?

Then there are "out of the blue" orders. Who saw Kingfisher coming?

With a BA order this year (which is looking increasingly likely) 20 orders shouldn't be hard to achieve. Without one it'll be a lot harder.

Okay, Asiana is a possibility, but only a small one. Air China is a big B747 operator and Air China is very happy with the B747. I think Air China is the next B747-800i costumer.

I agree, a "out of the blue" order is always a possibility, but this will be a small order and not 20 aircrafts.

I think BA is the big question, if BA order the A380 this year, it could become a fine year for the A380. If not and BA will order the B747-8i, this year will be again a lost year for Airbus and the A380.
 
ANCFlyer
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 4:52 pm

Thoroughly discussed in this thread, now archived, several weeks ago.

Perhaps the use of the Search Engine might have been in order?
Leahy Expects To Sell 20 More A380s In 2007 (by Leelaw Feb 7 2007 in Civil Aviation)
FOR THOSE THAT FOUGHT FOR IT, FREEDOM HAS A FLAVOR THE PROTECTED WILL NEVER KNOW OR UNDERSTAND
 
Thorben
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 4:56 pm

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 11):
Thoroughly discussed in this thread, now archived, several weeks ago.

Perhaps the use of the Search Engine might have been in order?

Leahy Expects To Sell 20 More A380s In 2007 (by Leelaw Feb 7 2007 in Civil Aviation)

John Leahy is not the Airbus CEO. So it's a new statement from a new person and should be able to have its own thread.
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
astuteman
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 5:00 pm

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 11):
Thoroughly discussed in this thread, now archived, several weeks ago.

The article was probably newsworthy for this particular quote.......

Quoting Columba (Thread starter):
In an interview with regional daily La Depeche du Midi, Gallois also repeated criticism of EADS' dual-CEO structure, but warned that a move to a 'more normal' form of governance 'will take time.

although nobody's seen fit to comment on it yet.
Be interesting to see how he goes about getting his way.

Regards
 
CrazyHorse
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 5:10 pm

Qatar = no new order
Etihad = no new order
Lufthansa = no new order, but LH will change some options to order this year
British = the big question this year, could be a great order for Airbus, but I think BA will go with Boeing.
China Eastern = could be, but only a few.
Air China = will go to Boeing
China Airlines = will go to Boeing
Asiana = could be, but only a few
Jet Airways = ´could be, but only a few.
Cathay = not this year
 
Thorben
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 5:22 pm

Quoting CrazyHorse (Reply 14):
Qatar = no new order

At least they might convert two options.

Quoting CrazyHorse (Reply 14):
Etihad = no new order

Why not?

Quoting CrazyHorse (Reply 14):
Air China = will go to Boeing
China Airlines = will go to Boeing

They both have A330s and A340s, why would they have to go Boeing? Especially when Airbus has the monopoly with the A380?

Besides, all your "only a few"s might add up to a decent number.
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deaphen
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 5:38 pm

What about Air India? With them going full swing for a new look.. it may be possible?

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CrazyHorse
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 5:38 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 15):
At least they might convert two options.

I agree, I think Qatar will convert their option to orders and maybe they will order a few A380 more.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 15):
They both have A330s and A340s, why would they have to go Boeing? Especially when Airbus has the monopoly with the A380?

Air China also operate the B747 and they were very happy with the performance of their fleet and this is the reason why Air China will go with Boeing.
For China Airlines the A380 is to big in my opinion, the B747-8i will fit better in their route network.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 15):
Besides, all your "only a few"s might add up to a decent number.

Without a question, but this airlines had to order the A380 first and the we can add a decent number to the order book of Airbus.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 6:17 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 13):
The article was probably newsworthy for this particular quote.......

Quoting Columba (Thread starter):
In an interview with regional daily La Depeche du Midi, Gallois also repeated criticism of EADS' dual-CEO structure, but warned that a move to a 'more normal' form of governance 'will take time.

although nobody's seen fit to comment on it yet.

Well, I'll comment on it. The "normal form of governance" encompasses a lot more than dual CEO's; it should also mean being run like a business instead of a political football.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
manni
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 6:19 pm

Quoting Deaphen (Reply 16):
What about Air India? With them going full swing for a new look.. it may be possible?

Sure. Afterall, the Airbus regional manager for India did say a while ago that they're talking to 2 Indian airlines who might buy A380s. Air India should be one of them, most likely Jet Airways the other.
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EI321
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 6:21 pm

Why would any airlines order an A380 before it enters service? I believe that there was one year (think it was the year before EIS) in which the A330 got just 1 order!
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 6:40 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 13):
The article was probably newsworthy for this particular quote.......

Forgeard argued that EADS should have just one CEO and that should be Forgeard. He didn't get anywhere with that. If Gallois wants the structure changed and is willing to give up the job to see it through, then he might get somewhere. He should end up as EADS's Chairman of the Board for pulling that off, if successful.

The man well-positioned to be the first CEO (not co-CEO) of Airbus is Leahy, being neither French nor German.
 
WAH64D
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 6:46 pm

Quoting CrazyHorse (Reply 6):
Only new orders?
Okay, this is one big order (only BA comes in my mind) and two or three small orders (SAA, Chinese carriers,..). I think this could be a very difficult mission for Airbus and the A380 program.
The only order for the A380 this year could be BA, and maybe some options from LH. The big US-Carriers will not order the A380, CX also not this year, the Japanese carriers also not, the big european carriers has ordered the A380, also the Asian carriers.
Only SAA could be an option for Airbus.

The Pacific rim carriers flying to Europe can't afford to be without the A380. Their economy will drive the world economy for the next 50 years and the associated increases in demand cannot be met at European hubs with more landing slots. Only bigger aircraft can accomplish this.

Quoting CrazyHorse (Reply 10):
Okay, Asiana is a possibility, but only a small one. Air China is a big B747 operator and Air China is very happy with the B747. I think Air China is the next B747-800i costumer.

SQ and VS are also very happy with the B744, didn't stop them ordering the A380.

Quoting CrazyHorse (Reply 14):
British = the big question this year, could be a great order for Airbus, but I think BA will go with Boeing.

Are you remembering that BA fly from the most slot constrained hub in the world? A380 is perfect for BA operations to Asia in relatively small numbers (no more than 12-15).
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trent900
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 7:01 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 20):
Why would any airlines order an A380 before it enters service?

Why would any airline order any new type before EIS. I think any new type needs a certain number to gain industrial launch?

And of course the earlier you order the the sooner you recieve the aircraft once it enters service (delivery slots).

D.
 
EI321
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 7:04 pm

Quoting Trent900 (Reply 23):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 20):
Why would any airlines order an A380 before it enters service?

Why would any airline order any new type before EIS. I think any new type needs a certain number to gain industrial launch?

Im refering specifically to the case of the A380 though. There is no rush to order the aircraft at the moment after all the delays, and I think most airlines are apprahensive, and will remain so until it enters service.

Remember that the 777 recieved zero orders in the year prior to its EIS, and I think the A330 only recieved one order in a similar year.

[Edited 2007-03-30 12:36:49]
 
trent900
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 7:09 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 24):
Im refering specifically to the case of the A380 though. There is no rush to order the aircraft at the moment after all the delays, and I think most airlines are apprahensive, and will remain so until it enters service.

I see where your coming from now.

Hopfully we might see some operating data soon from the route proving, unless anyone already has any info.

D.
 
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 7:21 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 12):
John Leahy is not the Airbus CEO. So it's a new statement from a new person and should be able to have its own thread.

Yes a new thread was needed as the situation and person making the statement is totally different.


I think BA will go with the A380 . I think it was waiting until the problems got ironed out and they seem to be on target for October/November delivery to SQ so fingers crossed. Theres no doubt that BA could use the A380.

I also think that some of the 20 expected orders may be NEW orders from existing A380 customers. I also think that Airbus have under estimated the amount intentionally so if they sell 30 or 40 it will be a bonus!!! Its called ''Marketing''.
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 7:22 pm

Quoting Trent900 (Reply 23):
Why would any airline order any new type before EIS. I think any new type needs a certain number to gain industrial launch?

Many airliners suffer a hiatus in orders for the year or so before EIS and then enjoy a surge of orders following EIS. In the case of the WhaleJet, it may be that the hiatus is longer than usual because the EIS has been pushed back four times, from March 2006 to May to November to December 2006 to November 2007. It may also be that this niche market is nearing saturation at this cost level. The year following EIS will be telling. If the WhaleJet wins substantially more net orders than the Jumbo in 2008, we WhaleJet critics will have to admit we were wrong. If WhaleJet orders remain pathetic in 2008, then the WhaleJet cheerleaders will have to admit they were wrong. Until then, the show will be worth the price of admission.
 
EI321
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 7:40 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 27):
Many airliners suffer a hiatus in orders for the year or so before EIS and then enjoy a surge of orders following EIS.

Tha 777 & A330 are examples.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 8:07 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 27):
The year following EIS will be telling. If the WhaleJet wins substantially more net orders than the Jumbo in 2008, we WhaleJet critics will have to admit we were wrong. If WhaleJet orders remain pathetic in 2008, then the WhaleJet cheerleaders will have to admit they were wrong.

Well put. I'll join the Whalejet critic's circle and predict that sales will remain anemic. I'm prepared to admit being wrong if they take off. My personal prediction is no more than 10 new orders (including options converted) this year.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
boeing767-300
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 8:11 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 27):
Many airliners suffer a hiatus in orders for the year or so before EIS and then enjoy a surge of orders following EIS.



Quoting EI321 (Reply 28):
Tha 777 & A330 are examples.

But not the 787 which has and probably still will gain more sales prior to service.

The key here is customers are waiting to see exactly how A380 performs. There is no doubt that A380 is a great buy at launch discounts (and options) but how good is the A380 business case when the Aircraft needs to be sold at something closer to list price rather than at "cost" to launch.

Honestly 20 frames (counting UPS cancellations) is a long way off the 48 frames production Airbus had planned for. 20 Frames a year is a long way of 420 frames at the current 'conceded' break even point. At that rate 420 would be another 10 years away and surely interest on debt etc and lack of demand (severely discounted product) would push the break even point even further away... if they ever get there. Why? because as Zvezda has pointed out on countless occassions range and CASM will be bettered by other aircraft which are more versatile and are less likely to become "yield" killers due to their size. There will be times that A380 will be very viable but I feel many Airlines for a large part of any given year will take a "flogging" when unable to get loadings high enough.

I believe we could see a repeat of the early 1970's when many Airlines bailed from 741 because it was too much capacity and I can see this happening again... especially given the current trend of Airlines 'downsizing'

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 27):
The year following EIS will be telling. If the WhaleJet wins substantially more net orders than the Jumbo in 2008, we WhaleJet critics will have to admit we were wrong. If WhaleJet orders remain pathetic in 2008, then the WhaleJet cheerleaders will have to admit they were wrong. Until then, the show will be worth the price of admission.

 checkmark 
 
WAH64D
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 8:21 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 29):
Well put. I'll join the Whalejet critic's circle and predict that sales will remain anemic. I'm prepared to admit being wrong if they take off. My personal prediction is no more than 10 new orders (including options converted) this year.

I'm very pleased you're prepared to admit it when you're wrong. All too many on here are not grown up enough to do that. For what its worth and after careful analysis, I predict the A380, the new queen of the skies, will attract an absolute minimum of 30 orders and options conversions this year.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 27):
If the WhaleJet wins substantially more net orders than the Jumbo in 2008, we WhaleJet critics will have to admit we were wrong. If WhaleJet orders remain pathetic in 2008, then the WhaleJet cheerleaders will have to admit they were wrong. Until then, the show will be worth the price of admission.

I know the address of a good baker. You'll need him to make the biggest humble pie ever seen. Its pretty amazing that you never seem to tire of talking down the A380, the new queen of the skies. You also win the award for fitting the word "WhaleJet" into virtually every post you make.

To that end, I propose to all Airbus and A380 supporters that whenever making a post regarding this aircraft, you mention "the new queen of the skies".
I AM the No-spotalotacus.
 
EI321
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 8:28 pm

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 31):
I predict the A380, the new queen of the skies, will attract an absolute minimum of 30



Quoting SEPilot (Reply 29):
My personal prediction is no more than 10 new orders (including options converted) this year.


Guys what is the basis for your predictions? 20 frames would equate to one new order from an airline like BA, or the firming up of options from existing customers.

[Edited 2007-03-30 13:35:00]
 
zoom1018
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 8:29 pm

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 31):
To that end, I propose to all Airbus and A380 supporters that whenever making a post regarding this aircraft, you mention "the new queen of the skies".

In fact I see nothing wrong the Whalejet calling... I also do not see big sales for the Whalejet as Airbus has always been expecting.

And the Daddy cannot be the queen :P
 
WAH64D
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 8:44 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 32):
Guys what is the basis for your predictions? 20 frames would equate to one new order from an airline like BA, or the firming up of options from existing customers.

BA - 10 frame minimum
LH - 10 more
NW - at least 10 aircraft but possibly not until 2008
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WINGS
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 8:46 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 27):
If the WhaleJet wins substantially more net orders than the Jumbo in 2008, we WhaleJet critics will have to admit we were wrong. If WhaleJet orders remain pathetic in 2008, then the WhaleJet cheerleaders will have to admit they were wrong. Until then, the show will be worth the price of admission.

As an aviation enthusiast, it's frustrating to read such comments. Why not just support aviation in general?

In regards to new A380 orders in 2007, I would have to place my bets on Qatar, Lufthansa, Jet Airways, Air Deccan and probably SAA.

(Options currently held by existing A380 customers are nothing more than options. If an option is converted into firm then it is a new order.)

Regards,
Wings
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 9:02 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 32):
Guys what is the basis for your predictions?

Its a WAG (wild a** guess). I just don't think that there are enough airports that will accommodate it or routes dense enough to make it profitable. I base this on the fact that when it was launched passenger orders for the 747 had just about dried up. The doggone thing is just too big, and be it Whalejet (which I regard as a term of affection, just as Jumbo is) or Queen of the Skies, it was just the wrong plane at the wrong time.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 9:05 pm

Quoting Zoom1018 (Reply 33):
And the Daddy cannot be the queen :P

The politically correct police (PCP) would crucify you for this remark.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
dutchjet
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 9:50 pm

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 31):
I'm very pleased you're prepared to admit it when you're wrong. All too many on here are not grown up enough to do that. For what its worth and after careful analysis, I predict the A380, the new queen of the skies, will attract an absolute minimum of 30 orders and options conversions this year.

Queen of the Skies.....hardly.

The A380 will continue to sell in small numbers, some to new customers, some to existing customers. Just as the 748I will book some new orders to carriers that absolutely require a large capacity airplane for some key routes. But the sad fact for both the A380 and the 748I is that they are ""old-tech"" airplanes and by the time that both the A380 and 748I are in service, they will be last-generation airplanes. Aluminum is out, composites and other new technology items being developed for the 787 and A350 are the future......it seems that operating costs, on a per pax basis, for the 787 and A350 will be very close to or even possibly better those offered by the big airplanes....thus there is little incentive for the airlines to burden themselves with these large airplanes which can only be used on specific missions profitably.

There is a very big reason why both the A380 and 748I are not landing lots of big orders at the moment.....the airlines are waiting to see if they really want to invest in and commit to these airplanes.....the airplanes may not be wise investments as new and better products are only years away. And, the drama of getting the A380 into service with all of the delays is not helping Airbus......and the fact that the 748I is yet another update of an older design is not help;ing Boeing, in my opinon.

What the airlines want is a new 400-500 passenger airplanes that incorporates all of the advances that will be made with the 787 family, and they want it now. Since that is not possibe, the airlines are being very cautious with their commitments to the A380/748I.

LH will order more A380s.
BA will go with the 748I, the airplane that BA asked Boeing to build.
Cathay will go with the 748I.
QF will add more A380s.
NW may order a few 748Is or A380s.
UA may order a few of whichever type NW does not select.
Among the Chinese carriers...one or two will order the A380 and the remaining carrier will go 748I.
And so on.......

There will be some orders for the A380 in the coming period.....but its unlikely that the A380 will ever be deemed the new ""Queen of the Skies"".

 Smile
 
EI321
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 9:59 pm

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 38):
There will be some orders for the A380 in the coming period.....but its unlikely that the A380 will ever be deemed the new ""Queen of the Skies"".


Thats an old name that is never really used generally. Superjumbo is the name that has stuck to the A380 in the Media.
 
Burkhard
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 10:02 pm

Why do I never read about the Japanese here? 747-400 is too small for them, they even use some domestically.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 10:05 pm

BA doing a split A388 and 748 order (20+20) makes sense, and could support the claims by both Airbus and Boeing that their respective flagships will see new sales in the double digits this year.
 
dutchjet
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 10:19 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 41):
BA doing a split A388 and 748 order (20+20) makes sense, and could support the claims by both Airbus and Boeing that their respective flagships will see new sales in the double digits this year.

We spoke about this on another thread......and more and more, I just think that this could happen.

Here are the clues:

1. BA ordered more 772ERs but in very limited numbers.......only 4+4, not the 10 firm most expected.
2. BA passed once again on the A330 family.
3. BA did not commit to the 773ER as many expected.
4. BA does not seem to be in a big rush concerning the 787/A350 types.

Thus, could we see BA move from a 763ER/772ER/744 longhaul fleet to a 772ER/748I/A380 fleet in the future? With slots becoming such a big issue at LHR, the future there is big airplanes......and will it make sense for BA to run anything smaller than the 772ER on longhauls out of LHR? The 763ERs would remain in the fleet for limited longrange flying out of LGW and some European flying out of LHR.

Later, BA could place a 787 or A350 order to first replace the 767s, and then begin the replacement of is 772 fleet.
 
EI321
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 10:21 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 41):
BA doing a split A388 and 748 order (20+20) makes sense

It likely wont happen this year though. I wonder what Boeing are planning to do with 747-8i if BA & CX dont order it. Maybe Boeing will try to deliver the 20 aircraft to LH as 747-8 / 747-400 hybrids.

[Edited 2007-03-30 15:36:39]
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 10:21 pm

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 40):
Why do I never read about the Japanese here? 747-400 is too small for them, they even use some domestically.

They are abandoning the 747 in droves and using 777's. They have expressed zero interest in the Queen of Whalejets (my new name.) I do not understand why, as it would seem the ideal utilization for VLA's. Perhaps someone who knows Japan better could shed some light on it?
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
dutchjet
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 10:26 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 44):
They are abandoning the 747 in droves and using 777's.

True.......the 773ER is the 744 replacement at both ANA and JAL, and all of these 787s will replace larger airplanes on the short domestic/regional routes. At some point, both carriers could take another look at the 748I/A380, but not right now.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 44):
Queen of Whalejets

Catchy.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 44):
I do not understand why, as it would seem the ideal utilization for VLA's

Nothing more than finances.....the Japanese carriers will use smaller more effecient airplanes in an effort to become profitable.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 10:35 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 43):
(A BA VLA order) likely wont happen this year though.

Why not? BA has said they don't want new widebody twins until at least 2013, which is when the 787 will be available for delivery or additional 777s if BA chooses to wait longer to get A350XWBs closer to 2020 (because A350XWBs will not be available to BA at EIS should the current number of A350 orders and commitments convert to A350XWBs).

Also, the 748I will be available earlier then the A388, so BA could start using 748Is to increase capacity into and out of slot-restricted airports until the A388s arrive in sufficient numbers to fill the role, at which point the 748s then start replacing 744s as they transition out of the active fleet.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 42):
Thus, could we see BA move from a 763ER/772ER/744 longhaul fleet to a 772ER/748I/A380 fleet in the future?

I'd really need to know the load factors on the 763ER routes to make an informed decision. That BA shed FIRST on their 763ERs in favor of Club World and lowered the total number of F & J seats from 42 to 24 makes me believe that BA may indeed want larger planes on these routes down the road. So a "floor" of 787-9/787-10/A350XWB-900 might very well be the right one, as it would allow BA to bring back FIRST and offer a common four-class product across their fleet.

Also, BA runs a high-CW 744 config and a low-CW config 744. Are they planning to make it all high-CW or do the low-CW planes fly lower-revenue excursion and leisure routes where they need all the extra WT seats? The larger 748I could allow more CW and WT seats, offering "the best of both worlds" and simplifying the fleet. The A388's larger size does the same by default, as well.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 10:39 pm

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 40):
Why do I never read about the Japanese here? 747-400 is too small for them, they even use some domestically.

The A388's sheer size works against her in a short-haul, high-turnaround config. It takes a lot of time to embark and disembark 800 people plus the impact that has on existing facilities.

Also, the continued expansion of the shinkansen high-speed train system draws passengers away from the airports since you don't need to go through all the security measures air travel requires and loading/unloading is significantly faster thanks to having 20 doors instead of 2 so it often ends up being faster to take the train then to fly.

So JL and NH have moved from the 747 to the 767 and 777 and are now moving to the 787.
 
EI321
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 10:41 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 46):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 43):
(A BA VLA order) likely wont happen this year though.

Why not?

Because both competing aircraft cant win the same order!
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus CEO Sees 20 New Orders For A380 This Year

Fri Mar 30, 2007 10:45 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 48):
Because both competing aircraft cant win the same order!

Only if BA is doing a "winner take all" competition and I haven't read anything where they have said that is the case.

And even if they have, they've changed their stance on the A330/772-A350/787 order so they can change it on this one.  Smile