mptpa
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Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 2:45 am

Since we had been speculating on what the Apr 03rd news conference was all about, and came up empty handed, why don't we start a thread to guess/speculate who the next "new" customer for this type would be. Existing customers exercising options or making top-off orders do not count, but go ahead and state if you have good source. I am wondering if Boeing will reach 600 by the time Paris Air Show rolls on. Wouldn't it be really something and unprecedented in the commercial aviation history?

So let the spec begin....

Here is mine: AA for 35 firm+55 options and other obscene quantities of purchase rights.

MP_Tampa
 
VgnAtl747
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 2:52 am

I would expect to see an order from DL within 6-8 months of exiting ch11... although I really don't think they'll be the next order...

I think the AA order is probably quite likley...

Common sense told everyone VS wouldn't make the announcement today... in SRB style if/when VS orders them it'll be a public event with lots of people around... as much as I'd like to see VS order the 787 I'm still not convinced we'll see it... at least not in the short term...
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kaitak
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 3:10 am

I would see Aer Lingus ordering fourteen within the next few weeks; whether it's the next one, I don't know, but the airline has said it would be placing an order in the first quarter. Airbus will fight hard, but I think Boeing will swing this one.

Other possibilities: Kuwait Airways. Its part-owned subsidiary ALAFCO, has ordered a good few 787s and it wouldn't surprise me to see KU order some of its own, directly, as well as taking some from ALAFCO.

Once one of the big US carriers places an order, the others won't be far behind; I see DL, AA and UA placing 787 orders.

Can't think of others in the near term; BA has said its going to place its big order next year and EK is waiting for Boeing and Airbus to launch the 787-10 and A350-1000, respectively, so I don't see much happening there.
 
AA787823
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 3:15 am

I dont think AA will order the 787 until it reaches an agreement with the APA. And right now given AA's employee relations. That will be a LOOOOOOONG time from now.
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panam330
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 3:20 am

Over on Flyertalk, rumor has it that DL will be announcing an order for 30 frames in the immediate future, and they're already on Boeing's books. I'm excited, but I'm not sure if it's true or not- don't shoot the messenger!  Wink
 
aa1818
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 3:51 am

Quoting PanAm330 (Reply 4):
and they're already on Boeing's books.

its possible that Boeing may have reserved slots for them and that negotiations are nearing closure, but I highly doubt they would be on the books since the Books only show 32 orders Unidentified and those are for 2,2,2,11 and 15 787s. I don't doubt that DL is ordering 787, what I doubt is that it is on the books- perhaps on Thursday Boeing will post a new UFO for 30 frames!!!

AA1818
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panam330
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 3:57 am

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 5):
its possible that Boeing may have reserved slots

That's what I meant! Screwed my words up! Sorry all! :-p
 
Lumberton
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 4:32 am

I posted this here: Special Dreamliner Announcement Tomorrow (3Apr07) (by Lumberton Apr 2 2007 in Civil Aviation)

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 131):
According to the Wikipedia entry on 787 orders, there were 32 UFOs before today's announcement.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_787_orders
If Boeing now has 514 firm orders, up from 491 at last count, that would represent an increase of 23, of which 5 are for JAL, leaving 18 more UFOs. 18 + 32 = 50 UFOs as of today.
The same Wikipedia web site identifies 40 customers, leaving 3 customers for the UFOs. If I have this right, there could be some nice orders here--possibly a U.S. legacy?
Edit: Boeing advised in their press release they had 43 total customers for the 787.

Not sure if I have this right, but I suspect that there is an AA, DL, or UA in here somewhere!
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
md90fan
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 5:29 am

Bahamasair for 2 787-8s and 4 73Gs  bigthumbsup   crossfingers 
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RoyalAtlantis
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 6:00 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 2):
I would see Aer Lingus ordering fourteen within the next few weeks; whether it's the next one, I don't know, but the airline has said it would be placing an order in the first quarter. Airbus will fight hard, but I think Boeing will swing this one.

WOW - I'd be surprised by that - though the 787 is the perfect plane for them most of the year. If I were Aer Lingus, I'd offer frequency with 787 vs. less with a larger aircraft.

Quoting VgnAtl747 (Reply 1):
Common sense told everyone VS wouldn't make the announcement today...

I thought that Mr. Branson was 4 engines 4 long-haul...which I've heard has now morphed to "green" -- but, alas -- isn't he still a huge airbus sas fan?? though, i agree that the plane family is perfect for VS - from 788-9-10.

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 5):
its possible that Boeing may have reserved slots for them and that negotiations are nearing closure

I'd be SHOCKED if the U.S. legacy carriers have not worked out some deal with Boeing. After all -- how are UA/DL/AA going to remain competitive while watching their inefficient gas-guzzling workhorses get older and older? I would not be surprised if there's some padding somewhere or another assembly line in the works to accomodate huge orders from these carriers. AA just started replacing the 300+ fleet of MD80's (thank God) with 738's and 737NG's ...but how about the 757-767 fleets of UA/DL/AA?? They are old, expensive to operate aircraft in comparison to the gains of efficiency that the 787 offers. Now it's just up to financing (and crossed fingers that a similar 9-11 will not occur), I'd bet that banks/leasing co's will give plenty of financing to the big boys.

And, on a similar front - PLEASE BA -- GET THOSE 787's!!!

Lastly, don't forget about more from QF, Chinese AL's (including China Airlines), AC, IB and others.
 
ChiGB1973
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 6:32 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 2):
Once one of the big US carriers places an order, the others won't be far behind; I see DL, AA and UA placing 787 orders.

NW and CO aren't big enough?

I see the other three placing orders too, but not for a few years. Certainly DL has no money to spend on new aircraft, AA and UA are questionable. This is a tough one for U.S. carriers. None are really in a financial position to get anything right now. It is just going to get worse this summer with fuel prices.

UA is in need of widebodies just for expansion. With their utilization of widebodies, I put them above AA. AA can stand to wait a few more years than UA, just because they do not have such a high utilization rate. Then again, AA might be in a bit of a better financial position. It is a close second.

DL may order the 77W and 787, but taking delivery is another question. I just do not believe DL will survive (without another bankruptcy) if they go spending money on a fleet they really do not need. The 77L is pretty much a need for DL now, plus with the conversion of 777 orders, probably a good idea, but anything else would not be wise. DL has a huge widebody fleet that has been underutilized for years. I am not sure they are doing what they need to as far as getting more of their widebody fleet off of domestic routes.

I have to add a standard disclosure when I say anything "bad" about DL, I am not against them, I just believe that to be true. I hope the best for the DL employees and DL itself.

M
 
MCIGuy
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 6:44 am

Quoting ChiGB1973 (Reply 10):
I see the other three placing orders too, but not for a few years. Certainly DL has no money to spend on new aircraft, AA and UA are questionable. This is a tough one for U.S. carriers. None are really in a financial position to get anything right now. It is just going to get worse this summer with fuel prices.

UA is in need of widebodies just for expansion. With their utilization of widebodies, I put them above AA. AA can stand to wait a few more years than UA, just because they do not have such a high utilization rate. Then again, AA might be in a bit of a better financial position. It is a close second.

DL may order the 77W and 787, but taking delivery is another question. I just do not believe DL will survive (without another bankruptcy) if they go spending money on a fleet they really do not need. The 77L is pretty much a need for DL now, plus with the conversion of 777 orders, probably a good idea, but anything else would not be wise. DL has a huge widebody fleet that has been underutilized for years. I am not sure they are doing what they need to as far as getting more of their widebody fleet off of domestic routes.

Yeah, but, there has been much buzz around AA and the 787 of late. It's already confirmed that they've reserved slots and with their "preferred customer" status, they're probably sooner rather than later. I'm not sure the initial order will be for 100 frames, and they may not be the very next new customer for the type, but I do look for an AA order any time now. There haven't even been any rumors of UA reserving 787 slots, not that I know of anyway. I'm not saying they don't have them but if they do, it's a well-kept secret.
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atlflyer
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 7:05 am

I hope DL orders 25 with an option for 30 or so more...then they could replace the 767s within 10 years (even though most of them are in good condition.)
 
EI321
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 7:39 am

Ive my fingers crossed for EI - announcement is due before June. 7

787 emissions + that livery = the greenest plane in the sky!
 
MCIGuy
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 7:42 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 13):
787 emissions + that livery = the greenest plane in the sky!

Nice association, would've never thought of it!  Smile
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OA260
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 7:51 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 13):
Ive my fingers crossed for EI - announcement is due before June. 7

787 emissions + that livery = the greenest plane in the sky!

Would look good alright but im not convinced that EI will go for it . No one knows what makes the toffs at EI click.
 
boeingfever777
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 8:19 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 2):
Once one of the big US carriers places an order, the others won't be far behind; I see DL, AA and UA placing 787 orders.

What about CO & NW?  Confused

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 2):
I would see Aer Lingus ordering fourteen within the next few weeks; whether it's the next one, I don't know, but the airline has said it would be placing an order in the first quarter. Airbus will fight hard, but I think Boeing will swing this one.

I have heard about this too... Not knowing how much to read into an all Airbus carrier ordering 787's but it is possible for their new expansion to N. America.
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ER757
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 8:29 am

I'll go way, way out on a limb and guess IB
 
jfk777
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 8:36 am

With the Paris Air Show just two months away, it will be how can Airbus out do Boeing. I say that because in the last few years with the 787, Boeing has been converting Airbus customers like Air Canada.
 
MCIGuy
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 8:40 am

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 18):
the Paris Air Show just two months away, it will be how can Airbus out do Boeing.

Unless they've been keeping some really BIG secrets, I don't see any way they can right now.
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ER757
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 8:43 am

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 19):
Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 18):
the Paris Air Show just two months away, it will be how can Airbus out do Boeing.

Unless they've been keeping some really BIG secrets, I don't see any way they can right now.

I think you can pretty much count on Airbus to announce some "really big secrets" in Paris. They are well known for making big announcements at air shows.
 
MCIGuy
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 8:47 am

Quoting ER757 (Reply 20):
think you can pretty much count on Airbus to announce some "really big secrets" in Paris. They are well known for making big announcements at air shows.

Sure, absolutely, but will it be enough to overshadow the 787 fervor? The 514 order mark aside, that will be just weeks before roll out and just a couple of months before first flight of the 787.  Smile
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LTU932
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 9:09 am

My money is still on LH launching the 787-10 plus ordering a few -8s for DE.
 
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STT757
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 9:17 am

Swiss, Lloyd Aereo Boliviano, Aer Lingus, EVA Airways, China Air, Lan Chile, Malaysian, SAS, Aer Lingus.
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fxramper
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 9:18 am

Two words: Paris Airshow
 
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LTU932
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 9:30 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 23):
Swiss

They're all Airbus in their mainline fleet. I only see a very remote chance that they'll go for the 787.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 23):
Lloyd Aereo Boliviano

They're close to shutdown. They're definitely out of the picture for both 787 and A350.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 23):
Aer Lingus

While the A350 may be the logical choice for them, I wouldn't mind them ordering the 787.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 23):
EVA Airways

BR has a pretty young A330 fleet if I'm not mistaken. Maybe sometime down the road, although I could see them as a future customer for both 777-200F and the 747-8F..

Quoting STT757 (Reply 23):
China Air

If you mean CI, that would be a possibility, but probably not right now. Maybe their mainland counterpart CA could order a few to replace older 767s.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 23):
Lan Chile

Good possibility, but not right now, maybe sometime later. They seem to be a rather young 767 fleet.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 23):
Malaysian

With their financial troubles, it's more likely they cancel their A380 order than order the 787 or A350.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 23):
SAS

This one is probably a wildcard, because they seem to "flip flop" many times with their fleet (e.g. ordering the 737NGs while ordering A32x later on).

Quoting ER757 (Reply 17):
I'll go way, way out on a limb and guess IB

IB is on my list of those about to buy the 787-9.
 
mah584jr
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 9:46 am

US Airways is supposed to make an announcement by April 30th on long haul aircraft orders. Maybe they will order some 787s.
 
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ER757
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 10:34 am

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 21):
Quoting ER757 (Reply 20):
think you can pretty much count on Airbus to announce some "really big secrets" in Paris. They are well known for making big announcements at air shows.

Sure, absolutely, but will it be enough to overshadow the 787 fervor? The 514 order mark aside, that will be just weeks before roll out and just a couple of months before first flight of the 787.

Well I guess it depends on what you'd consider as Airbus "out-doing" Boeing at the show. Let's say A announces a dozen A380's for BA and a shedload of A350's for the likes of LH, EI, QR, BA etc. Or they drop a bombshell like a US legacy such as UA ordering the A350 or A380. Then they've pretty much stolen Boeing's thunder. Not saying any of these will happen, but that's how Airbus could "out-do" Boeing in Paris.
 
kbdude
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 10:38 am

Well... last week, Boeing had 491 firm order from 39 customers.

According to Tuesday's April 3rd press release... Boeing has now 514 firm orders from 43 customers. Taking into account JAL 5 new orders... this means that today there is 18 new firm orders from 4 new customers.

Meaning..... we are speculating about the next "new" 787 customer... well today we have 4 new 787 customers shared across 18 new planes.
 
Jano
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 10:41 am

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 16):
Quoting Kaitak (Reply 2):
Once one of the big US carriers places an order, the others won't be far behind; I see DL, AA and UA placing 787 orders.

What about CO & NW? Confused

NW? They will order more 787s once they leave BK. They have those 50 options.
The Widget Air Line :)
 
highflyer9790
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 10:44 am

Eventually, a US customer WILL order the 787. it is just a matter of time and money. CO and NW have already ordered it. UA, DL, and AA are all big 767 airlines, and all have 757s and 777s as well. the 787 will eventually join one, if not all those three in the future, IMHO. they are all perfect canidates as far as passenger load and destinations are considered...

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EA772LR
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 11:27 am

When will Boeing identify the UFO 787 orders?
We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
 
asuflyer
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 11:31 am

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 25):
Good possibility, but not right now, maybe sometime later. They seem to be a rather young 767 fleet.

Dosen't Lan still have 767 on order?
 
AsstChiefMark
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 11:43 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 2):
Once one of the big US carriers places an order, the others won't be far behind

This isn't a big US carrier? I wonder who you think is big enough to be considered "one of the big US carriers?"

Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Red tail...Damned MSP...Red tail...Red tail
 
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fxramper
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 12:21 pm

Quoting AsstChiefMark (Reply 33):

This isn't a big US carrier? I wonder who you think is big enough to be considered "one of the big US carriers?"

Agreed.  checkmark 
 
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LTU932
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 12:35 pm

Quoting Asuflyer (Reply 32):
Dosen't Lan still have 767 on order?

There is an order for 3 763s by LAN that was made just about a year ago, so maybe they still do, though I don't know if they have been delivered yet.
 
boeingfever777
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 2:03 pm

Quoting Jano (Reply 29):
NW? They will order more 787s once they leave BK. They have those 50 options.

Yeah i guess... When will that be?

I would think NW would want to get their finances on order and make a consistent profit for several qts. before buying more new a/c.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
 
KLM685
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 3:44 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 23):
Lloyd Aereo Boliviano

roftl roftl roftl

Although I understand what you mean, it would be a good plane for them if the airline were to be in a good financial situation. But as mentioned above the airline is about to shut down as they have abs no cash.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 23):
Swiss,

It would be a good plane for them to expand their long haul map. Though they're all Airbus which means 0 787's.


I would love seeing AM ordering more 787 to replace their current 767 fleet and expand their route network.

MX could be an excellent costumer too!

I would also like to imagine into SAS, Alitalia, Singapore and Emirates. The latter because they love to have short flights with widebodies, the 787 could make them consider some more bizarre destinations to open.
KLM- The Best Airline in the World!
 
rootsair
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 4:58 pm

As for Latin America it would not surprise me if the custiomer is COPA

 airplane   wave 
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MCOflyer
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Wed Apr 04, 2007 7:41 pm

Quoting MD90fan (Reply 8):

Bahamasair for 2 787-8s and 4 73Gs

too big an a/c unless its for european routes.

MCOflyer
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AirEMS
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Thu Apr 05, 2007 1:18 am

How about a order for like 50 going to a re-constituted Pan AM (not the piddly one thats around now) or TWA??


That would be so cool!!  hyper   cloudnine 


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Algoz
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Thu Apr 05, 2007 1:31 am

Quoting ChiGB1973 (Reply 10):
UA is in need of widebodies just for expansion. With their utilization of widebodies, I put them above AA. AA can stand to wait a few more years than UA, just because they do not have such a high utilization rate. Then again, AA might be in a bit of a better financial position. It is a close second.

United is committed to its current fleet size and equipment until 2010. No huge expansion is planned. As has happened in the past, United will have no hesitation in pulling an aircraft from a route that is unprofitable, and placing it on one that is.
The airline has to get some operating earnings in the bank to pay for any new planes. Conservative maybe, but prudent (IMHO)
 
flysherwood
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Thu Apr 05, 2007 1:45 am

Quoting ER757 (Reply 27):
Well I guess it depends on what you'd consider as Airbus "out-doing" Boeing at the show. Let's say A announces a dozen A380's for BA and a shedload of A350's for the likes of LH, EI, QR, BA etc.

Do you really believe that an order for a dozen A380's will "out-do" Boeing's achievements with the 787 at the show? The question to Airbus is "Why haven't you already sold more than a dozen A380's to BA?" I mean, they are based at the most slot restricted airport in the world, are they not? The A350 selling one hundred fifty to two hundred frames at the show will be out-doing Boeing! When Airbus sells more than 420 A380 frames, then that frame will be outdoing Boeing in some "small"way. Until then, every sale of an A380 frame will read "...it's about d*** time!"  Yeah sure
 
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Thu Apr 05, 2007 4:31 am

Quoting VgnAtl747 (Reply 1):
as much as I'd like to see VS order the 787 I'm still not convinced we'll see it... at least not in the short term...

Boeing have 15x UFO B787s booked recently. SRB has said that he wants B787s, and both dates are close to each other. A source of mine has confirmed the same thing, and others on here also. you can expect those B787s to be for VS
 
md90fan
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Thu Apr 05, 2007 4:56 am

Quoting MCOflyer (Reply 39):
too big an a/c unless its for european routes.

MCOflyer

I was being sarcastic, and if we got them I doubt they would be used on a MIA turn.
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Algoz
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Thu Apr 05, 2007 5:18 am

Quoting 777ER (Reply 43):
A source of mine has confirmed the same thing, and others on here also. you can expect those B787s to be for VS

Surely not - whatever happened to 4 engines 4 longhaul...............or is Mr Branson changing his mind again (as evidenced by his objections to open skies - open markets ok if it benefits Virgin, but not if it benefits someone else..........
Sorry, but this PR machine is so transparent.....
 
EI321
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RE: Next "new" Customer For B787

Thu Apr 05, 2007 5:27 am

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 42):
Quoting ER757 (Reply 27):
Well I guess it depends on what you'd consider as Airbus "out-doing" Boeing at the show. Let's say A announces a dozen A380's for BA and a shedload of A350's for the likes of LH, EI, QR, BA etc.

Do you really believe that an order for a dozen A380's will "out-do" Boeing's achievements with the 787 at the show?

I think ER757 is refering to the A380 against the 747, and the A350 against the 787.

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