kaitak744
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UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Wed Apr 04, 2007 7:42 am

A new recent development:

http://boeing.com/news/releases/2007/q2/070403d_nr.html

The article states that there are currently 514 airplanes from 43 customers. That means that of the unidentified 787 orders, only one of them is a new order. The other 3 are add-ons.

(my guess)
Unidentified 11 - Vietnam
Unidentified 2 - Air Canada
Unidentified 2 - Northwest
Unidentified 15 - Virgin Atlantic
 
aa1818
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Wed Apr 04, 2007 7:57 am

Somewhere in there you need to include JAL for 5 more. The order total remains at 314 at 43. so perhaps 5 of the 15 are for JL leaving 10 for a new customer??

I agree with you on the VN and NW. I don't think AC will firm up in such small numbers. If anything one of the '2' orders is probably for a leasing company. Other guesses might include someone like AM or another small operator.

P.s. The other UFO 787 thread is only on 38 replies- I'm not sure there is need to start a new one- but whatever!!!

Cheers
AA1818
“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
 
kaitak744
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Wed Apr 04, 2007 7:59 am

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 1):
Somewhere in there you need to include JAL for 5 more. The order total remains at 314 at 43. so perhaps 5 of the 15 are for JL leaving 10 for a new customer??

The article says the 514 for 43 is inclusive of the JAL.
 
2wingtips
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Wed Apr 04, 2007 8:05 am

Before yesterday, I believe there were 491 787 orders from 39 customers. 5 more from JAL makes 496 orders. That means 4 new customers have signed for 18 more 787s.
VN is not for the 11 788s. They are almost 100% for TUI. Only yesterday, there was a press release indicating that VN were looking to add 4 more 787s and some ATRs to their fleet.
 
aa1818
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Wed Apr 04, 2007 8:06 am

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_787_orders

Unfortunately i was using that wikipedia site. And initially after the announcement, they added the JL order and increased the firm committments from 514 to 519. It has now been rectified. My apologies.

However, for the last few days it has been showing 514, without the JL and with 32 UFO orders, so how come with the JL x 5 it is still showing 514 orders and 32 UFOs? Was it their mathematical error or is there some doctoring going on there with the numbers?? Boeing therefore cracked 500 a few days ago, not today!!!

AA1818
“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
 
kbdude
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Wed Apr 04, 2007 8:30 am

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 3):
Before yesterday, I believe there were 491 787 orders from 39 customers. 5 more from JAL makes 496 orders. That means 4 new customers have signed for 18 more 787s.

I concur... as of a Boeing Press Release on Thursday Mar 29th... Boeing had 491 firm orders from 39 customers. Per todays press release, April 3rd, they have 514 firm orders from 43 customers....

Meaning, 18 new orders from 4 new airlines.

Mar 29th
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/news/2007/q1/070329a_nr.html

April 3rd
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/news/2007/q2/070403d_nr.html


Let the speculation begin!
 
Danny
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Wed Apr 04, 2007 8:35 am

Quoting Kaitak744 (Thread starter):
Unidentified 15 - Virgin Atlantic

I don't see why VS would downsize like that. It could be Aer Lingus (had RFP for 14 aircraft).
 
kaitak744
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Wed Apr 04, 2007 8:36 am

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 4):

Unfortunately i was using that wikipedia site. And initially after the announcement, they added the JL order and increased the firm committments from 514 to 519. It has now been rectified. My apologies.

However, for the last few days it has been showing 514, without the JL and with 32 UFO orders, so how come with the JL x 5 it is still showing 514 orders and 32 UFOs? Was it their mathematical error or is there some doctoring going on there with the numbers?? Boeing therefore cracked 500 a few days ago, not today!!!

The wikipedia page is accurate now, and it shows 514. Someone previously made an error and changed it before to something else.
 
Hamlet69
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Thu Apr 05, 2007 2:42 am

Quoting Kaitak744 (Thread starter):
(my guess)
Unidentified 11 - Vietnam
Unidentified 2 - Air Canada
Unidentified 2 - Northwest
Unidentified 15 - Virgin Atlantic

According to Boeing's press release of March 29th, this cannot be. In it, they state: "Since the 787's launch in April 2004, 39 customers have booked 491 orders. . . "

As of Feb. 28th, the 787 orderbook looked like this:

Orders: 464
Customers: 33 + these unidentified orders:

03/03/06 - 1 787-9
07/28/06 - 2 787-8
09/15/06 - 11 787-8
09/26/06 - 6 787-8
10/04/06 - 10 787-8
01/18/07 - 2 787-8
01/24/07 - 2 787-8

In the meantime, we've had these announcements/orders:

- March 12, ALAFCO announces earlier purchase of 6 787's (09/26/06), as well as 6 more (O: 470, C: 34 + UFO)
- March 12, Continental orders 5 787-9 (O: 475, C: 34 + UFO)
- third week of March, an Unidentified customer orders 15 787-9 (O: 490, C: 34 + UFO)
- March 28, Travel Service orders 1 787-8 (O: 491, C: 35 + UFO)
- March 28, Avianca announce UFO order (10/04/06) of 10 787-8 (O: 491, C: 36 + UFO)
- March 29, LCAL announce UFO order (03/03/06) of 1 787-9 (O: 491, C: 36 + UFO)

It is in this last press release that Boeing states: "Since the 787's launch in April 2004, 39 customers have booked 491 orders." Therefore, of the remaining (until this week) 5 UFO orders, 3 are from new customers:

07/28/06 - 2 787-8
09/15/06 - 11 787-8
01/18/07 - 2 787-8
01/24/07 - 2 787-8
MARCH - 15 787-9

We know one of the "2" UFO orders is ILFC, IMO it is the January 24th order. If I were to place bets, I'd say it looks like this:

07/28/06 - 2 787-8 - new customer, could be anybody
09/15/06 - 11 787-8 - TUIfly (I did feel it was VN, but was convinced otherwise by other members Big grin )
01/18/07 - 2 787-8 - existing customer, IMO AC
01/24/07 - 2 787-8 - ILFC
MARCH - 15 787-9 -  shhh 

Finally, we have the April 3 announcement, in which JAL orders 5 787-8's, while at least 4 other UFO orders* totaling 18 frames push total orders to 514.

* - we know it is a minimum of 4 different orders, all from new 787 customers as the total customer count is now 43. I'm an still trying to find out the breakdown of these UFO orders and will update as soon as I can.

Regards,

Hamlet69  profile 
Honor the warriors, not the war.
 
boeingfever777
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Thu Apr 05, 2007 2:49 am

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070403/4/2zrwk.html

Where does this play into the UFO's? I know VN has (11) options on the 787 between 2011-13.



comments?
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
 
tak
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Thu Apr 05, 2007 2:57 am

So much for Airbus' accounting being difficult to understand Big grin. Seriously, it's kinda fun to speculate about who is responsible for these unpublicized orders. Also Hamlet, many thanks for this analysis and your diligent work on the orders thread. It is much appreciated by many members of the Anet community. BTW, I forgot to add you to my RU list earlier, but am rectifying that error now  Smile. Ciao
 
Beaucaire
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:33 am

Some of you might have forgotten that TUI had placed a huge order for 737's plus an order for 11 unidentified "other aircraft" from Boeing..
Those were never declared as 787's but the likelyhood that TUI is beefing up their Longhaul fleet with 787's is great.
TUI have bought First Choice with an outstanding 12 x 787's but in a corporate fleet-statement they mention 23x 787's ...
Please respect animals - don't eat them...
 
CV747F
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Thu Apr 05, 2007 4:12 am

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 8):
09/15/06 - 11 787-8 - TUIfly (I did feel it was VN, but was convinced otherwise by other members )

being one of the users able to convince such a RU as Hamlet otherwise, thanks a lot for the honor
I guess I won't be able to convince Hamlet to acknoledge as SRB being the UFO for the 789  wink 
regarding the new UFO's, we need to find out who was in the process of placing small to mid sized orders
one coming immediately to my mind is Royal Jordanian, being in the market for 4 if I remember correctly
so 3 more customers and 14 orders to go.....
Cheers
CV747F
 
Hamlet69
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Thu Apr 05, 2007 4:20 am

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 9):
Where does this play into the UFO's? I know VN has (11) options on the 787 between 2011-13.

Without any knowledge about the newest orders, I would say it is possible that VN has ordered 4 more as UFO. However, if that is the case, then we are looking at 5+ UFO orders amounting to 18 frames. . .


Quoting CV747F (Reply 12):
I guess I won't be able to convince Hamlet to acknoledge as SRB being the UFO for the 789

I have no idea what you are talking about. . .

Quoting CV747F (Reply 12):
one coming immediately to my mind is Royal Jordanian

Again, without any knowledge about the new orders up to this point, I would say that is a fairly smart bet.

Regards,

Hamlet69  profile 
Honor the warriors, not the war.
 
CV747F
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Thu Apr 05, 2007 5:00 am

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 13):
Without any knowledge about the newest orders, I would say it is possible that VN has ordered 4 more as UFO. However, if that is the case, then we are looking at 5+ UFO orders amounting to 18 frames. . .

well if this proves to be right, as well as my humble guess of 4 for RJ, than we have 10 frames remaining for 3 new customers. The average size of the remaining orders is rapidly decreasing... could there be one or two private customer BBJ orders hidden in the total?
As for airline orders there were rumours of a possible switch of up to 6 767's to 787 from LAN
Any addtional guesses are more than welcome
Cheers
CV747F
 
Hamlet69
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Thu Apr 05, 2007 5:35 am

Quoting CV747F (Reply 14):
could there be one or two private customer BBJ orders hidden in the total?

Possible, but then that would not increase the customer order total either, as Boeing lists all BBJ orders under the BBJ-customer listing. . . (ex: Privatair is getting a 787BBJ, but Boeing does not list them as a seperate order/customer).

Regards,

Hamlet69  profile 
Honor the warriors, not the war.
 
AMSSFO
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Thu Apr 05, 2007 5:55 am

Quoting CV747F (Reply 14):
well if this proves to be right, as well as my humble guess of 4 for RJ, than we have 10 frames remaining for 3 new customers. The average size of the remaining orders is rapidly decreasing... could there be one or two private customer BBJ orders hidden in the total?
As for airline orders there were rumours of a possible switch of up to 6 767's to 787 from LAN
Any addtional guesses are more than welcome

A BBJ order would not be a new customer. However, not all 18 migh be ordered by the 4 new customers. Maybe some were ordered by an existing customer while 4 new customers took the remaining.
Maybe GA has finally ordered.....
 
2wingtips
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Thu Apr 05, 2007 7:25 am

Thanks Hamlet/CV747F for clarifying this situation as much as possible. I am another one convinced the 15 789 UFOs are for VS. I wonder what appropriate opportunity SRB will choose to announce this. If RJ/VN are 8 of the 787 UFOs from this week, that would leave 10 more from 3 customers. I am beginning to warm to the idea that EI might be one of these. I had them firmly in the 330 interim to 350 category. Their RFP is supposedly for 14 frames, but that could be a mix of 7+7. So, EI in there for around 7 wouldn't surprise, with another 2 small orders (VIP?) to make up the 18 UFOs I know it 's pure speculation and I think the suggestion that LA may go with the 788 is a very interesting and possibly viable one as well.
 
2wingtips
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Thu Apr 05, 2007 7:40 am

As an aside, what chance the 787 will make a clean sweep in the UK? We already have FlyGlobespan/Monarch/First Choice+TUI and very likely VS. BA would have to be a very good shot of being an eventual 787 customer as well. What does that leave apart from BMI, whose independent future seems less than assured?
 
flysherwood
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Thu Apr 05, 2007 8:02 am

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 18):
As an aside, what chance the 787 will make a clean sweep in the UK? We already have FlyGlobespan/Monarch/First Choice+TUI and very likely VS. BA would have to be a very good shot of being an eventual 787 customer as well. What does that leave apart from BMI, whose independent future seems less than assured?

Just think of how many 787's will be crowding the tarmacs at LHR, LGA and Stansted within the next 10 years. It is going to be simply amazing. The 787 will be as common at LHR as the 737 is at PDX.  Smile
 
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ER757
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Thu Apr 05, 2007 8:25 am

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 17):
I am another one convinced the 15 789 UFOs are for VS.

I am leaning that way too, but just to speculate a little further, what if they are for EI or IB? Boeing keeps them as UFO's til the Paris show and drops the bomb on Airbus in their own back yard that one of their stalwart customers has defected.
 
atmx2000
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Thu Apr 05, 2007 8:31 am

Quoting ER757 (Reply 20):
Boeing keeps them as UFO's til the Paris show and drops the bomb on Airbus in their own back yard that one of their stalwart customers has defected.

I'm sure Airbus would know if they've defected, given that they wouldn't be wasting time talking to Airbus's marketeers.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
JayinKitsap
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Thu Apr 05, 2007 8:32 am

Quoting ER757 (Reply 20):
I am leaning that way too, but just to speculate a little further, what if they are for EI or IB? Boeing keeps them as UFO's til the Paris show and drops the bomb on Airbus in their own back yard that one of their stalwart customers has defected.

With Boeing it will the Customer that announces the order. Boeing stepped back a number of years ago to this policy and are probably even skittish after the QR "stomach flu" left them on the "windy corner". Such is life.
 
kaitak744
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Thu Apr 05, 2007 9:56 am

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 8):

Arg... this is the first time I have been let down by Wikipedia. : Smile Smile(
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_787_orders
Yesterday, I corrected the 519 total to 514. Someone changed it back to 519 today.

If you please, can you find the mistake(s) on this page, so that all of us can be clear on the 787 orders.


Thanks!
 
kbdude
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Thu Apr 05, 2007 11:50 am

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 13):
Quoting CV747F (Reply 12):
I guess I won't be able to convince Hamlet to acknoledge as SRB being the UFO for the 789

I have no idea what you are talking about. . .

Maybe its just me..... but coming from a guy in the know, seems like a positive acknowledgement to me!

So... VS for 15x789 it is....
 
Hamlet69
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Thu Apr 05, 2007 1:59 pm

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 23):
Yesterday, I corrected the 519 total to 514. Someone changed it back to 519 today.

Just checked right now and it says 514, which is correct.


Regards,

Hamlet69  profile 
Honor the warriors, not the war.
 
2wingtips
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Fri Apr 06, 2007 12:27 am

The 787 breakdowns for this week appear to be:

5 788s for JL
3 789 for new customer #1
15 788s for new customers 2, 3 and 4.

No idea who the 789s are for. The 788 breakdown has been touched on in this thread but I'll rule out VN, as it would appear to be a new 787 customer. RJ is a good guess. I'm beginning to think EI might be in there for around 7.
 
WestWing
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Fri Apr 06, 2007 2:27 am

The Boeing press releases have flubbed numbers in the past - leading to some confusion. So I wonder if the 43 customers number is correct because it seems odd that four new customers would order the mix of 3 789s and 15 788s all on the same day (30th March). Unless it was that Chinese agency closing a bulk deal for four new Chinese carriers?
The best time to plant a tree is 40 years ago. The second best time is today.
 
CV747F
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Fri Apr 06, 2007 4:41 am

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 26):
The 787 breakdowns for this week appear to be:

5 788s for JL
3 789 for new customer #1
15 788s for new customers 2, 3 and 4.

No idea who the 789s are for. The 788 breakdown has been touched on in this thread but I'll rule out VN, as it would appear to be a new 787 customer. RJ is a good guess. I'm beginning to think EI might be in there for around 7.

Well I'm starting to think that there might be somewhere a mistake regarding the number of new customers. Wouldn't Boeing list the 15 788 as 3 separate UFO's if they were for different customers?
Could the confusion of the total number of 787 customers come from the fact that Boeing might include some leasing customers of ILFC, such as Flyglobespan, Air Seychelles... in its total?
This might be an explanation  Confused

Cheers
CV747F
 
n1786b
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Fri Apr 06, 2007 4:45 am

Quoting WestWing (Reply 27):
it seems odd that four new customers would order the mix of 3 789s and 15 788s all on the same day (30th March).

I thought the same thing - but isn't it also the end of Q1?

-n1786b
 
Hamlet69
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Fri Apr 06, 2007 8:07 am

Quoting WestWing (Reply 27):
The Boeing press releases have flubbed numbers in the past - leading to some confusion.



Quoting CV747F (Reply 28):
Well I'm starting to think that there might be somewhere a mistake regarding the number of new customers.

No, the numbers are correct.

Quoting CV747F (Reply 28):
Wouldn't Boeing list the 15 788 as 3 separate UFO's if they were for different customers?

If they are ordered on the same day, and are for the same model, then Boeing would indeed list them all under one listing as UFO. It would not be until the customers were actually announced that the listing would be seperated.

Quoting CV747F (Reply 28):
Could the confusion of the total number of 787 customers come from the fact that Boeing might include some leasing customers of ILFC, such as Flyglobespan, Air Seychelles... in its total?

Negative. Boeing might mention them as operators, but true customers are those organizations that have paid Boeing directly. Once again, I'll highlight the example of Privatair: They've ordered a 787BBJ, but Boeing does not list them as a customer, as they went through Boeing Business Jets to do it.

Quoting N1786b (Reply 29):
I thought the same thing - but isn't it also the end of Q1?

 checkmark  For many companies, it is also the end of the fiscal year. . .


Now, for the treat of the day, I can break down the UFO orders: Big grin

2 787-8
5 787-8
8 787-8
3 787-9


Regards,

Hamlet69  profile 
Honor the warriors, not the war.
 
WestWing
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RE: UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)

Fri Apr 06, 2007 9:14 am

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 30):


2 787-8
5 787-8
8 787-8
3 787-9

Thank you for the detailed breakup. Four new customers. Great!!

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 30):
It would not be until the customers were actually announced that the listing would be seperated.

Just to add to this, it appears as though when an unidentified customer chooses their engine supplier, the db might separate them from the other customers of the day. Unless they all choose the same.
The best time to plant a tree is 40 years ago. The second best time is today.

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