CO767FA
Topic Author
Posts: 388
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2005 1:45 am

Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Thu Apr 05, 2007 5:09 am

Over 20 years ago in DEN, there was a battle for market share and dominance (CO vs UA vs Frontier); most know how it turned out.

There is a new battle (UA-F9-WN) building and in looking at the national airline scene, most airports have one or two dominate carriers. The City of Denver is quite different in demographics and population, but it is reasonable to assume that the three carriers will not continue to be profitable in the DEN market.

Who will prevail? How long will it take to "shake" out?
 
InnocuousFox
Posts: 2556
Joined: Sat Dec 06, 2003 1:30 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Thu Apr 05, 2007 5:40 am

I wouldn't say that WN is a "dominant carrier" in DEN any more than DL, AA or any other airilne that simply serves the field.
Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 11432
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Thu Apr 05, 2007 6:54 am

It has shaken out. UA has a large (legacy) hub. F9 has a hub that they seem pretty comfortable with; though it's growing slowly, they'll never fly to LHR, for example. And DEN is just another WN station. I don't see the question...
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
atlaaron
Posts: 973
Joined: Mon Apr 24, 2006 11:30 pm

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Thu Apr 05, 2007 9:03 am

Quoting CO767FA (Thread starter):
The City of Denver is quite different in demographics and population,

How so? Not being smart, just curious.
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2002
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Thu Apr 05, 2007 9:22 am

Quoting InnocuousFox (Reply 1):
I wouldn't say that WN is a "dominant carrier" in DEN any more than DL, AA or any other airilne that simply serves the field.

Except that WN does about twice as many flights daily compared to DL, or AA or US.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 2):
It has shaken out. UA has a large (legacy) hub. F9 has a hub that they seem pretty comfortable with; though it's growing slowly, they'll never fly to LHR, for example.

Why not? I heard this week that F9 is starting to think of ways to use the EU/US open skies arangement.

Quoting ATLAaron (Reply 3):

How so? Not being smart, just curious.

It has a huge catchement area, is right smack dab in the middle of the country both in terms of population density and location, can serve every single market (north/south east/west) and great access to Mexico. The O&D population travel more then any other airport except for Los Vegas.

[Edited 2007-04-05 02:22:47]
 
User avatar
mariner
Posts: 18198
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Thu Apr 05, 2007 9:52 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 4):
I heard this week that F9 is starting to think of ways to use the EU/US open skies arangement.

Now that would be an extremely interesting move. Even so, not LHR, perhaps, but there are a number of other desirable destinations.

 Smile

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 11432
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Thu Apr 05, 2007 11:10 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 5):
but there are a number of other desirable destinations.

Definitely true, but if the expansion is related to the open skies agreement, I couldn't imagine it would be anywhere besides London. F9 could practically start Paris service tomorrow if they had the aircraft.

...and I wouldn't believe everything you hear. After all, my roomie just told me that he's the second coming of Jesus.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
PanAm747
Posts: 4713
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 4:46 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Thu Apr 05, 2007 11:26 am

Quote:
It has a huge catchement area, is right smack dab in the middle of the country both in terms of population density and location, can serve every single market (north/south east/west) and great access to Mexico. The O&D population travel more then any other airport except for Las Vegas.

Add to that the fact that Denver had the foresight to plan for the future in their enormous expandable airport, and you have the recipe for a city that's more than just one or two airlines' hub - you have a forward-looking diversified economic powerhouse that can take its place with the major cities of the United States and the rest of the world.

If DEN can support a British Airways flight to London - a OneWorld partner in a Star Alliance city - then you've got a MAJOR city.
Pan Am:The World's Most Experienced Airline - P(oor) S(ailor's) A(irline): San Diego's Hometown Airline-Catch Our Smile!
 
swmdal
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2005 9:00 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Thu Apr 05, 2007 11:53 am

Former UAX CSA at Stapleton here...yes, it's true that DEN has a huge catchment area, but much of that area consists of some of the most thinly populated territory in the lower 48 states (Worland, WY, Scottsbluff, NE, etc.). The local and regional population simply can't compare with DFW, IAD, IAH, DTW, and many other airports that only manage to support a single hub operation.

Off the top of my head, the only US airport I can think of that successfully supports two major domestic hubs is ORD, and Denver ain't no Chicago. Unless you want to call ValueJet's--excuse me, AirTrans's--operation at ATL a "major hub." hehe
 
User avatar
mariner
Posts: 18198
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Thu Apr 05, 2007 12:09 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 6):
...and I wouldn't believe everything you hear. After all, my roomie just told me that he's the second coming of Jesus.

I only believe anything when it happens. It would still be an interesting move.

But - I would worry about a roomie with a Messiah complex.  Smile

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
graphic
Posts: 1293
Joined: Sat Nov 18, 2006 10:41 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Thu Apr 05, 2007 12:19 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 5):
Now that would be an extremely interesting move. Even so, not LHR, perhaps, but there are a number of other desirable destinations.

Hmmm... Knowing your connections, care to speculate?  Wink

Quoting Swmdal (Reply 8):
yes, it's true that DEN has a huge catchment area, but much of that area consists of some of the most thinly populated territory in the lower 48 states

You haven't been out there in awhile, have you?

Quoting Mariner (Reply 9):

But - I would worry about a roomie with a Messiah complex.

Yeah come on, everyone knows I'm the real Jesus.
Demand Media fails at life
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2002
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Thu Apr 05, 2007 12:54 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 5):
Now that would be an extremely interesting move. Even so, not LHR, perhaps, but there are a number of other desirable destinations.

The speculation I heard most definitely did not include LHR. It is absolutely still speculation, and it's all a bit tied to seeing how they do with higher capacity aircraft, but they are certainly watching the openskies movement with a very careful eye.

Quoting Swmdal (Reply 8):
The local and regional population simply can't compare with DFW, IAD, IAH, DTW, and many other airports that only manage to support a single hub operation.

Which is why DEN is the fifth busiest airport in the nation, tenth in the world, and has almost always had two if not three carriers hubbing there simultaneously.
 
GARUDAROD
Posts: 1136
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2000 4:39 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Thu Apr 05, 2007 1:50 pm

Quoting Swmdal (Reply 8):
Off the top of my head, the only US airport I can think of that successfully supports two major domestic hubs is ORD, and Denver ain't no Chicago. Unless you want to call ValueJet's--excuse me, AirTrans's--operation at ATL a "major hub." hehe

Humm, there used to be this carrier called Eastern, they used to run one or two aircraft through ATL
along with DL, that would quantify two major hubs at one airport.
Cargo doesn't whine, moan, or complain
 
BA
Posts: 10133
Joined: Fri May 19, 2000 11:06 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Thu Apr 05, 2007 2:10 pm

Quoting Graphic (Reply 10):
Hmmm... Knowing your connections, care to speculate?

I think Frontier's international expansion is heading more to the south, as in Mexico and perhaps beyond into Central America.

I'm not sure if Frontier will be doing much expansion in Canada. Lately it seems like Frontier is trying to pursue markets that are unserved or lightly served from DEN, which is why I have a feeling that we won't see any major expansion into Canada like they have done with Mexico. United and Air Canada together very well serve the Canada-Denver market.

I recently read a press release that stated Frontier plans to have international flights become 20% of its overall operations by 2009, so it does sound like Frontier has some interesting plans under wraps.

Quoting Graphic (Reply 10):
Yeah come on, everyone knows I'm the real Jesus.

Oh my, I can't believe I didn't realize it!  Wow!
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
User avatar
mariner
Posts: 18198
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Thu Apr 05, 2007 2:14 pm

Quoting Graphic (Reply 10):
Hmmm... Knowing your connections, care to speculate?  

Going right off-topic, I could write a very lengthy thesis on how it might be achieved, with many variables, but it would be for the University of Bologna.

Even if it is being discussed at Frontier, it is very early days, and beyond the limit of my sight.

I think Frontier will concentrate on a more localised international service first. Just as Guadalajara was a quantum leap in the Mexican service - away from the tourist driven resorts - so I think they need a small leap beyond Canada/Mexico.

There are been many hints about Costa Rica and "a Caribbean island", but they remain, for now, hints.

Generally - away from Frontier - I think any small US airline considering trans-Atlantic flights might do well with some lateral thinking.

I understand why the big US airlines are fixated on LHR - the old "why do people rob banks" syndrome - but Open Skies raises some issues. If Continental gets LHR, does that cannibalize their services to the smaller UK cities? I don't know.

For a small airline, I think there are other possibilities.

I remember that the original trans-Atlantic LCC - Icelandic - made a fortune flying Americans to a place few of them had heard of then. Luxembourg probably wouldn't work now, but back then it was a very successful case of lateral thinking.

I'm sure there are others.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
JumboBumbo
Posts: 168
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 1:17 pm

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Thu Apr 05, 2007 9:51 pm

Quoting Graphic (Reply 10):
care to speculate?

I have no connections... but who says that F9 has do the flying to the EU or LHR to take advantage of Open Skies?

Strategically, it may make more sense for them to enter into a "strategic partnership" like B6 and EI... the key is to make presentations to prospective airlines in the EU to demonstrate they can provide significant leverage in DEN for some airline who wants greater access to the middle US. Heck, given the nature and general non-overlap of B6 and F9's route structure, EI might even be a good candidate for F9 (assuming nothing in the EI/B6 agreement precludes this).
 
ord
Posts: 1355
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 1999 10:34 pm

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Thu Apr 05, 2007 10:32 pm

Quoting GARUDAROD (Reply 12):
Humm, there used to be this carrier called Eastern, they used to run one or two aircraft through ATL
along with DL, that would quantify two major hubs at one airport.

The comment was with regard to one city successfully supporting two major hubs. Eastern was clearly not successful, as they are no longer around.
 
DIA
Posts: 3053
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2001 2:24 pm

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Thu Apr 05, 2007 11:39 pm

Quoting Ord (Reply 16):
Eastern was clearly not successful, as they are no longer around.

I disagree. They were successful for decades. Times changed with the economy and industry...and least of all, certain "people" in charge of...well...self-centered decisions.



As to the topic: Who will be successful? I tend to believe all three of those carriers will be.

1. WN is now playing on a more level field with some of their exclusive fuel contracts expiring.
2. WN is also going to be adding more destinations and flights to make DEN a major focus city.
2. F9's new fleet of Q400s and new destinations only strenghtens their pax #s at DEN, thus filling up more empty seats.
3. F9's new contract with (Republic is it?) with a fleet of Ejets will add capacity and destinations as well.
4. UA is hot in adding an Asian destination from DEN, and with all the restructuring, DEN is getting stronger in their favor.

And don't forget, DIA is going to expand:
1. The west side of Concouse A
2. The east side of Concourse B
3. The east side of Concourse C
4. The major 500+ room hotel at the airport is a "go."

Additionally, LH has started its second DAILY nonstop to Europe.
Ding! You are now free to keep supporting Frontier.
 
ord
Posts: 1355
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 1999 10:34 pm

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 12:20 am

Quoting DIA (Reply 17):
I disagree. They were successful for decades. Times changed with the economy and industry...and least of all, certain "people" in charge of...well...self-centered decisions.

I believe the original point about a city supporting two successful hub operations was in the context of deregulation. Prior to deregulation many cities had multiple hub operations, but post-deregulation only O'Hare has two big airline hubs (and that is mainly due to slot controls). In the deregulated environment Atlanta could not support both Delta and Eastern.
 
DIA
Posts: 3053
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2001 2:24 pm

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 12:38 am

Quoting Ord (Reply 18):
but post-deregulation only O'Hare has two big airline hubs

Are we talking legacy carriers only? What of Jetblue and A^A at JFK? Or America West/US Airways and WN at both LAS and PHX?
Ding! You are now free to keep supporting Frontier.
 
SRT75
Posts: 204
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2005 2:42 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 12:43 am

Quoting DIA (Reply 17):
UA is hot in adding an Asian destination from DEN, and with all the restructuring, DEN is getting stronger in their favor.

Like where? UA has virtually NOTHING internationally from DEN, aside from Mexico. DEN-Europe stops in IAD or ORD. To get to Asia, I don't think there are any continuing flight numbers, you have to transfer in LAX or SFO.

I would suspect UA is of the opinion there is no sustainable O&D for DEN internationally, and it doesn't see good connecting opportiunities.

UA seems to treat DEN as a huge maintenace base (the LAX-DEN flight operates 737, 319, 320, 757, and 777 each day -- sounds like a maintence rotation to me).

By the way, DIA, I've heard several Denverites still refer to the airport as "DIA." Are you guys that nostalgic for the old airport?
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2002
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 12:51 am

Quoting Ord (Reply 18):

I believe the original point about a city supporting two successful hub operations was in the context of deregulation. Prior to deregulation many cities had multiple hub operations, but post-deregulation only O'Hare has two big airline hubs (and that is mainly due to slot controls). In the deregulated environment Atlanta could not support both Delta and Eastern.

With the exception of a two year period after the new airport opened, Denver has maintained two hubs at the airport since well before deregulation.

Quoting SRT75 (Reply 20):

I would suspect UA is of the opinion there is no sustainable O&D for DEN internationally, and it doesn't see good connecting opportiunities.

Which is why the first announcement UA made post OpenSkies agreement was that they were looking at non-stop DEN to LHR.

Quoting SRT75 (Reply 20):

By the way, DIA, I've heard several Denverites still refer to the airport as "DIA." Are you guys that nostalgic for the old airport?

It's Denver International Airport. DIA. The old airport was Stapleton. The local media uses DIA for everything, and all locals say "I am going to DIA to pick someone up." Denver's code was never DIA, it was DVX before Stapleton closed, at which point the DEN designation moved over.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 2861
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 12:59 am

Quoting DIA (Reply 19):
Are we talking legacy carriers only? What of Jetblue and A^A at JFK? Or America West/US Airways and WN at both LAS and PHX?

Good point. And not only do AA and B6 have major operations at JFK - but so does DL, which now refers to JFK as a "hub" as well. US/WN at PHX and LAS are two other great examples - and aren't those cities smaller than DEN also?

Keep in mind that DEN is the only airport serving the whole metropolitan area. Chicago has 2 - MDW and ORD - and is a hub or major operation for three airlines (UA/AA/WN). NYC has 3 - JFK, LGA, and EWR - and is a hub or major operation for four airlines (AA/B6/DL/CO) - or even 5 if you count the major presence of US at LGA. Don't forget about the Bay Area - SJC, SFO and OAK - and its dominance by UA and WN, not to mention AA's considerable presence - and Virgin America's impending service.

I think that DEN can certainly sustain major operations from UA/WN/F9. There are so many other examples of major cities that have even more airlines with major hubs or focus cities.

JetBluefan1
 
jmy007
Posts: 540
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2004 2:18 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 1:01 am

Quoting Swmdal (Reply 8):
Former UAX CSA at Stapleton here...yes, it's true that DEN has a huge catchment area, but much of that area consists of some of the most thinly populated territory in the lower 48 states (Worland, WY, Scottsbluff, NE, etc.). The local and regional population simply can't compare with DFW, IAD, IAH, DTW, and many other airports that only manage to support a single hub operation.

I don't buy this at all. You have to consider Denver as part the Front Range of Colorado, which includes Boulder, Ft Collins, Loveland, Colorado Springs,Greely, on into Cheyenne, and down to Pueblo. This area has a population of somewhere over 4 million people, and that is expected boom to well over a million people in the next 15 years, if not more. That's before we take into account the larger area near the front range, to include Plains of Colorado, western Kansas,western Nebraska, Wyoming. and the mountain communities of Colorado. You could look at the front range as the new Bay Area.

Don't forget that the state's tourism/ski industry, which this ski season has been its busiest ever, in terms of skier days, and lodging nights, primarily funnels through DIA, weather it is passengers destination, or connecting to mountain resorts airports.

So to say that DIA is local and regional population can't compare with the likes of DFW, IAD, etc etc is in accurate. There is a reason why they built a massive airport, with ample room to grow, out in the Plaines of Colorado, not just to look pretty.... Smile
Cookies are the Gateway pastry. They lead to Éclairs and Bear Claws.
 
jmy007
Posts: 540
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2004 2:18 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 1:04 am

Quoting SRT75 (Reply 20):
By the way, DIA, I've heard several Denverites still refer to the airport as "DIA." Are you guys that nostalgic for the old airport?

Say what now?

The name of the current airport is Denver International Airport (DIA) The old one was always refered to as Stapelton.
Cookies are the Gateway pastry. They lead to Éclairs and Bear Claws.
 
nosedive
Posts: 2176
Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 2:18 pm

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 1:04 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 11):
Which is why DEN is the fifth busiest airport in the nation, tenth in the world, and has almost always had two if not three carriers hubbing there simultaneously.

Well, to be fair, some of the other busy airports have some nice operations as well: ATL: DL, FL ORD: AA, UA LAS: WN, US etc.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 11):
Quoting Swmdal (Reply 8):The local and regional population simply can't compare with DFW, IAD, IAH, DTW, and many other airports that only manage to support a single hub operation.
Which is why DEN is the fifth busiest airport in the nation, tenth in the world, and has almost always had two if not three carriers hubbing there simultaneously.

D.C. Has 3 airports in the region, all busy (unlike DEN v. COS), DTW has big red and Spirit. Houston has Hobby. And Dallas has DAL.... apples to oranges here, and I think you know it. What I'd like to know is, is Denver the largest metro region with only 1 airport serving it? Or would that title go to somewhere like Atlanta?

Quoting JumboBumbo (Reply 15):
but who says that F9 has do the flying to the EU or LHR to take advantage of Open Skies?

Exactly. Aer Lingus, LTU, the TUI Group, Thomas Cook, and a few others could do some LCC hub-hub turns.

As for the old battle: you don't have someone like CO there with 3/4 or so of the flights of UA. #1 will be the same for a few more years to come, #2 is another story. Does WN overtake F9? Only time and the market will tell.
 
nosedive
Posts: 2176
Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 2:18 pm

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 1:09 am

Quoting SRT75 (Reply 20):
I would suspect UA is of the opinion there is no sustainable O&D for DEN internationally, and it doesn't see good connecting opportiunities.

Or they do it on LH metal.

Quoting SRT75 (Reply 20):
UA seems to treat DEN as a huge maintenace base

I hope you're not serious. While we could go back in fourth about Denver's status compared to other cities. It still has some O and D numbers that cannot be scoffed at. That also takes plane types into account.
 
rampart
Posts: 1798
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 5:58 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 3:03 am

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 22):
Quoting DIA (Reply 19):
Are we talking legacy carriers only? What of Jetblue and A^A at JFK? Or America West/US Airways and WN at both LAS and PHX?

Good point. And not only do AA and B6 have major operations at JFK - but so does DL, which now refers to JFK as a "hub" as well. US/WN at PHX and LAS are two other great examples - and aren't those cities smaller than DEN also?

Keep in mind that DEN is the only airport serving the whole metropolitan area. Chicago has 2 - MDW and ORD - and is a hub or major operation for three airlines (UA/AA/WN). NYC has 3 - JFK, LGA, and EWR - and is a hub or major operation for four airlines (AA/B6/DL/CO) - or even 5 if you count the major presence of US at LGA. Don't forget about the Bay Area - SJC, SFO and OAK - and its dominance by UA and WN, not to mention AA's considerable presence - and Virgin America's impending service.

I think that DEN can certainly sustain major operations from UA/WN/F9. There are so many other examples of major cities that have even more airlines with major hubs or focus cities.

JetBluefan1

Excellent points, JetBluefan1. (and DIA previous). In the 2000 Census, Denver metro was ranked 19th (2.6 million, which does not include Colorado Springs, Fort Collins or other cities that have been mentioned that would count in the catchment area); Phoenix was larger at 14th, 3.3 million, and Las Vegas smaller, 32nd at 1.6 million. They're all roughly comparable, and all have significant tourist draw on top of that.

Also, throw in Dallas-Fort Worth, while losing Delta, are we going to ignore WN's large presence at the "other airport"? Forget the arguments, WN's sheer numbers of flights at their major cities are certainly hub-like.

Of the 18 metro areas larger than Denver's, only San Diego, Minneapolis, and Atlanta are effectively one-airport towns. All others have two or more existing viable commercial airports. MSP is dominated by NW, unless we consider Sun Country a small player; Atlanta has 2 major hub airlines, and SAN has no hub airlines, though a couple offer a lot of flights. I still believe COS can be thought of as a 2nd airport for Denver Metro, but since I'm self-limiting to officially desingated metro areas, not catchments, I'll not mix apples and oranges.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 21):
With the exception of a two year period after the new airport opened, Denver has maintained two hubs at the airport since well before deregulation.

Even three at one time at Stapleton: UA, CO, and original Frontier. FOUR if you want to count the brief time that TW was developing Denver into a hub (I'm not 100% sure of the coinciding time WRT Frontier and Continental's merger)

-Rampart
 
AirEMS
Posts: 625
Joined: Mon May 17, 2004 6:34 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 3:48 am

The only true way that I could see DEN adding a second hub airline would be by lowering their landing and gate costs...I know they already have and that is what made WN more agreable to coming to DEN..... Although with fees at DEN still on the high side and the fuel costs I can't see anyone who could make the jump....

Just My 2 Cents
-Carl
If Your Dying Were Flying
 
rampart
Posts: 1798
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 5:58 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 4:48 am

Quoting Nosedive (Reply 25):
Well, to be fair, some of the other busy airports have some nice operations as well: ATL: DL, FL ORD: AA, UA LAS: WN, US etc.

For the 4 US airports busier than DEN

Atlanta has 60% larger population with roughly twice the traffic
Chicago has almost 3x population and almost twice the traffic at ORD, but also add MDW
Los Angeles has 6x population with 2/3 more traffic, but add to that traffic from BUR, SNA, ONT...
Dallas has 2x population with 2/3 more traffic, but also add DAL

Phoenix, one step lower than DEN, has 75% larger population with almost exactly the same traffic.


Just throwin' some figures up there for thought.

-Rampart
 
graphic
Posts: 1293
Joined: Sat Nov 18, 2006 10:41 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 5:47 am

Quoting BA (Reply 13):
I think Frontier's international expansion is heading more to the south, as in Mexico and perhaps beyond into Central America.

All of which have nothing to do with EU/US open skies

Quoting JumboBumbo (Reply 15):
(assuming nothing in the EI/B6 agreement precludes this).

F9 has a baggage interline agreement with B6, so I can't see how any agreement they make would preclude this.

Quoting DIA (Reply 17):
4. UA is hot in adding an Asian destination from DEN, and with all the restructuring, DEN is getting stronger in their favor.

UA might have one or two nonstops from DEN, but they won't be to Asia. If anything, it'd be LHR and FRA and that's about it.

Quoting DIA (Reply 17):
2. The east side of Concourse B

Isn't able to push any farther out, the RJ complex puts an end to eastward expansion.

Quoting SRT75 (Reply 20):
By the way, DIA, I've heard several Denverites still refer to the airport as "DIA." Are you guys that nostalgic for the old airport?

Denver International Airport = DIA.
Demand Media fails at life
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 11432
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 6:37 am

Quoting SRT75 (Reply 20):
I would suspect UA is of the opinion there is no sustainable O&D for DEN internationally, and it doesn't see good connecting opportiunities.

Where would they go internationally? We'll clearly see an LHR flight, but if they can't make LAX-CDG work, it seems that Denver would be a stretch also.

On the Asian side, NRT would be the clear front-runner, but slot controls there make UA go for the best performing flights, and they clearly don't feel that DEN would be one of those. DEN isn't really a victim of poor international O&D. It's more a victim of UA-specific circumstances.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
jmy007
Posts: 540
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2004 2:18 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 7:04 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 31):
but if they can't make LAX-CDG work, it seems that Denver would be a stretch also.

LAX-CDG compaired to DEN-LHR???? Apples and Oranges. A better example would be the short lived DEN-FRA service started at the same time as LH.
Cookies are the Gateway pastry. They lead to Éclairs and Bear Claws.
 
BA
Posts: 10133
Joined: Fri May 19, 2000 11:06 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 9:50 am

Quoting SRT75 (Reply 20):
Like where? UA has virtually NOTHING internationally from DEN, aside from Mexico.

I don't see anything about him saying that UA having a large international presence from DEN...

Quoting SRT75 (Reply 20):
I would suspect UA is of the opinion there is no sustainable O&D for DEN internationally, and it doesn't see good connecting opportiunities.

UA treats DEN as a major domestic hub and has always treated DEN this way. They have been wanting to launch DEN-LHR for many years, but the Bermuda II agreement has prevented them from doing so. With upcoming US/EU open skies, we may very well see them launch this route next year.

Also, either ANA or UAL are likely to start start DEN-NRT within the next few years.

Quoting SRT75 (Reply 20):
UA seems to treat DEN as a huge maintenace base

I am a bit puzzled at how you've come to this conclusion. UA's maintenance operations in DEN are actually not that big. SFO is a much bigger and more important maintenance base.

Quoting Graphic (Reply 30):
All of which have nothing to do with EU/US open skies

I never said they did...
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 11432
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 10:34 am

Quoting Jmy007 (Reply 32):
LAX-CDG compaired to DEN-LHR???? Apples and Oranges. A better example would be the short lived DEN-FRA service started at the same time as LH.

Evidently I was unclear. After LHR, CDG would probably be the next logical international destination; given that UA and LH share transatlantic revenue, there's zero reason for UA to start its own FRA flight. And as LAX-CDG didn't work, I can't see DEN-CDG working.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
graphic
Posts: 1293
Joined: Sat Nov 18, 2006 10:41 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 10:47 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 34):
And as LAX-CDG didn't work, I can't see DEN-CDG working.

Where did DEN-CDG ever come up?
Demand Media fails at life
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 11432
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 10:57 am

Quoting Graphic (Reply 35):
Where did DEN-CDG ever come up?

It's pretty much a given that UA will be starting DEN-LHR in the near future. Beyond that, CDG is the next logical European route. I don't think it will happen.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
BA
Posts: 10133
Joined: Fri May 19, 2000 11:06 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 11:23 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 36):
Beyond that, CDG is the next logical European route. I don't think it will happen.

I agree with you that CDG is the next logical European route from DEN and that it is highly unlikely that UA will operate it, however, I don't think you can base that assumption on UA's failure in LAX-CDG.

While obviously LAX-CDG is a much much bigger market than DEN-CDG, keep in mind that that LAX-CDG is served 18x weekly by Air France and 5x weekly by Air Tahiti Nui, so I would think the market is very well served and UA just couldn't compete.

I do think that we may one day see DEN-CDG, but it would be on Air France.
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
BA
Posts: 10133
Joined: Fri May 19, 2000 11:06 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 11:33 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 36):
Beyond that, CDG is the next logical European route. I don't think it will happen.

I agree with you that CDG is the next logical European route from DEN and that it is highly unlikely that UA will operate it, however, I don't think you can base that assumption on UA's failure in LAX-CDG.

While obviously LAX-CDG is a much much bigger market than DEN-CDG, keep in mind that that LAX-CDG is served 18x weekly by Air France and 5x weekly by Air Tahiti Nui, so I would think the market is very well served and UA just couldn't compete.

I do think that we may one day see DEN-CDG, but it would be on Air France.
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 11432
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 2:13 pm

Quoting BA (Reply 38):
While obviously LAX-CDG is a much much bigger market than DEN-CDG, keep in mind that that LAX-CDG is served 18x weekly by Air France and 5x weekly by Air Tahiti Nui, so I would think the market is very well served and UA just couldn't compete.

Quite true, but LAX has more O&D than any airport on the planet. Just like they would have to at DEN, UA sought to fill the flight with UA-loyal local fliers and connections. The connecting environment to a UA TATL flight at LAX isn't so much different than DEN because once you get east of Omaha or so, you're better off connecting through ORD. Furthermore, the AF service compensates for the larger market at LAX. So I don't think the two are as different as they appear.

And I don't think AF will open DEN-CDG any time soon, particularly if they or DL start SLC-CDG.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
BA
Posts: 10133
Joined: Fri May 19, 2000 11:06 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 2:49 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 39):
Just like they would have to at DEN, UA sought to fill the flight with UA-loyal local fliers and connections.

I think this is part of the problem, UA doesn't have that significant of a presence in LAX and thus connections are limited. Useful connections in LAX for passengers coming from Europe are mostly just intra-California flights. In some ways, LAX resembles more of a big focus city for UA rather than a hub.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 39):
And I don't think AF will open DEN-CDG any time soon, particularly if they or DL start SLC-CDG.

DEN has been on AF's list of potential US destinations for a few years now and there have been numerous contacts between Denver city officials and Air France officials about establishing a flight from Paris to Denver.

Supposidly AF was getting close to announcing service to DEN until our ex-governor, Bill Owens, blabbed out some stupid jokes against the French a few years ago...
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
CO767FA
Topic Author
Posts: 388
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2005 1:45 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 8:52 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 2):
It has shaken out. UA has a large (legacy) hub. F9 has a hub that they seem pretty comfortable with; though it's growing slowly, they'll never fly to LHR, for example. And DEN is just another WN station. I don't see the question...

DEN is not just another "station" to WN and they have publicly stated that information (do a search at Rocky Mountain News and/or The Denver Post).

UA has been and may continue to lose market share to both F9 and WN. If they continue to have publicity nightmares like the ongoing issue in USA Today (regarding leaving passengers in Cheyenne during the December snowstorm), they might find people book away and toward the other two dominant carriers.

While you F9 doesn't currently state they will fly outside North America, it is naive to think that they will "never" fly transatlantic or transpacific (with a change in leadership, someone might do exactly that type of growth).
 
DIA
Posts: 3053
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2001 2:24 pm

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Sat Apr 07, 2007 12:17 am

Quoting Graphic (Reply 30):
Isn't able to push any farther out, the RJ complex puts an end to eastward expansion.

Correct. I meant they are redesigning this area with better infrastructure and gates.

Quoting BA (Reply 33):
Also, either ANA or UAL are likely to start start DEN-NRT within the next few years.

I completely agree.
Ding! You are now free to keep supporting Frontier.
 
BA
Posts: 10133
Joined: Fri May 19, 2000 11:06 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Sat Apr 07, 2007 12:49 am

Quoting CO767FA (Reply 41):
DEN is not just another "station" to WN and they have publicly stated that information (do a search at Rocky Mountain News and/or The Denver Post).

WN has a very long way to go before it gets anywhere close to being in the same league as UA and F9.

The latest figures show that United (including Ted and United Express) has a 54.3% marketshare and Frontier (including Frontier JetExpress) has a 20% marketshare. On the other hand, WN's marketshare is just 3.3% which is less than American Airlines.

WN can say that DEN isn't any ordinary station for them, but until we see them same leagues as UA and F9, it is just talk for now. WN has had quite a bit of difficulty penetrating the DEN market as its load factors from DEN are below their overall average. They've publically stated that both UA and F9 are fierce competitors who have a lot of loyalty in DEN.

Quoting CO767FA (Reply 41):
UA has been and may continue to lose market share to both F9 and WN.

They have been losing market share due to the growth of other airlines and the entrance of new carriers, and not just F9 and WN.

Losing market share doesn't mean UA is doomed. Businesses go through different stages in their life. UA's presence in DEN has matured and like in any business, growth rate tends to slow down when a business reaches its maturity stage. On the other hand, F9 is still a relatively new and small carrier (small by comparison to UA, AA, DL, CO, etc.) and is currently at its growth stage of its business cycle which means rapid growth.

UA is growing at DEN, but at a slower rate than F9 and WN which is not unusual for a carrier of its size.

Quoting CO767FA (Reply 41):
If they continue to have publicity nightmares like the ongoing issue in USA Today (regarding leaving passengers in Cheyenne during the December snowstorm), they might find people book away and toward the other two dominant carriers.

UA is not the only major that has had to face bad publicity. In time people will move on and forget. It's going to take a lot more than an ongoing issue in the USA Today to get people to stop flying United.
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
B752OS
Posts: 592
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 4:05 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Sat Apr 07, 2007 2:28 am

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 22):
Good point. And not only do AA and B6 have major operations at JFK - but so does DL, which now refers to JFK as a "hub" as well. US/WN at PHX and LAS are two other great examples - and aren't those cities smaller than DEN also?

Phoenix is much larger than Denver is, Phoenix has more than 1.4 million people while Denver has a little over 550,000. The same goes for the Metro areas, Phoenix has more than 1.5 million more people than does the metro Denver area.

Quoting Nosedive (Reply 26):
Or they do it on LH metal.

That has to be the reason that LH started DEN-MUC, the star alliance partenship had to be a big reason. When you consider DEN does not have a non-stop to a larger European city like CDG, the LH-UA connection had to come into play.

Quoting Rampart (Reply 27):
Of the 18 metro areas larger than Denver's, only San Diego, Minneapolis, and Atlanta are effectively one-airport towns. All others have two or more existing viable commercial airports. MSP is dominated by NW, unless we consider Sun Country a small player; Atlanta has 2 major hub airlines, and SAN has no hub airlines, though a couple offer a lot of flights. I still believe COS can be thought of as a 2nd airport for Denver Metro, but since I'm self-limiting to officially desingated metro areas, not catchments, I'll not mix apples and oranges.

Like DEN, ATL benefits from having a huge catchment area and no other airports within a reasonable distance, so they rule an entire region and get all the air traffic. Makes you wonder how big PHL would be if EWR, LGA and JFK were not as close as they are. I don't really think you can call COS a secondary irport for the Denver area. A buddy of mine went to the Ai Froce academy and he, along with pretty much all of his friends, flew into and out of DEN and didn't even this of COS as an option. When you look at the Boston area, BOS is the primary airport for the region, but we also have MHT and PVD within a hour and a half and they have much better service than COS does. The same could be said down in South Florida with MIA, FLL and PBI.
 
CO767FA
Topic Author
Posts: 388
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2005 1:45 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Sat Apr 07, 2007 2:44 am

Quoting BA (Reply 43):
On the other hand, WN's marketshare is just 3.3% which is less than American Airlines.

Date of this information? Location where it can be found?

Quoting BA (Reply 43):
WN has had quite a bit of difficulty penetrating the DEN market as its load factors from DEN are below their overall average.

Source?

Quoting BA (Reply 43):
They have been losing market share due to the growth of other airlines and the entrance of new carriers, and not just F9 and WN.

Please site the "growth" other than seasonal by other carriers? What other new carriers have entered the DEN market?

Quoting BA (Reply 43):
UA is not the only major that has had to face bad publicity. In time people will move on and forget. It's going to take a lot more than an ongoing issue in the USA Today to get people to stop flying United.

Really, I guess that UA's larger than life BK will be forgotten? That they had more complaints with the DOT than any other carrier, according to last months statistics.
 
flightopsguy
Posts: 299
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2005 9:51 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Sat Apr 07, 2007 3:04 am

Quoting CO767FA (Reply 45):
Really, I guess that UA's larger than life BK will be forgotten? That they had more complaints with the DOT than any other carrier, according to last months statistics.

Huhh? UA's March load factor was 85%, reported by them as the highest in their history. The complaint stats that I saw had JBU with a higher complaint factor, at something like 2.2% per 100K pax.

Leno and Letterman continually make JBU the butt of their jokes at the present time, just like they used to do with SWA and AWA. By this time next year, it will be someone else' s turn.
A300-330 BAC111/146/J31/41 B99/1900 CV580 B707-777 DC8/9/10 L188/1011 FH227/28/100 SB340 DO228 EMB2/170 CR2-900 SH330-60
 
nosedive
Posts: 2176
Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 2:18 pm

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Sat Apr 07, 2007 3:25 am

Quoting CO767FA (Reply 45):
according to last months statistics.

God I love this about n00bs, look pal, if you want to mock other people for not having sources, have some of your own that we can see.

I'll back BA up here:

Quote:

United remains the largest carrier at DIA with 57.4% of the market share while Frontier is second with 19.3% of the share.

Source

Quote:

Southwest's share of the local market stands at about 5%.

Source

So his numbers are a bit off...

Quoting B752OS (Reply 44):
That has to be the reason that LH started DEN-MUC

Part of it More of the Story Well, that and some business incentives never hurt. The real story, $2,000,000

Quoting CO767FA (Reply 41):
UA has been and may continue to lose market share to both F9 and WN. If they continue to have publicity nightmares like the ongoing issue in USA Today (regarding leaving passengers in Cheyenne during the December snowstorm), they might find people book away and toward the other two dominant carriers.

 redflag  Look, the USAToday fiasco isn't going to line up hoards of people ito F9 and WN lines. Some, yes. But F9's check-in at DIA leaves much to be desired, as they don't have the counter space and it's been a bit understaffed the times I've checked in there. WN just doesn't fly everywhere people in Denver want to fly, and vice versa. Your point is nothing more than media baiting. Losing market share will continue, F9 and WN will grow to ensure that much, and it will continue regardless of the press.

Quoting CO767FA (Reply 45):
I guess that UA's larger than life BK will be forgotten?

Yes, UA is a ghost-town in every hub  redflag  People still fly UA
 
BA
Posts: 10133
Joined: Fri May 19, 2000 11:06 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Sat Apr 07, 2007 6:11 am

Let me add a bit to NoseDive's excellent post.

First of all, I got my figures from the pie chart on page 9 of this PDF, they are the end of 2006 figures so they are pretty recent:
http://www.flydenver.com/diabiz/info/news/pressKit.pdf

The latest figures out are for the month of February. These were released just a few days ago, take a look at the pie chart on page 5, but keep in mind that the pie chart shown is for domestic market share only:

http://www.flydenver.com/diabiz/stats/traffic/reports/FEB_2007.pdf

Several new carriers have started service to DEN over the past 10 years including British Airways, Lufthansa, AirTran, Alaska Airlines, Horizon Air, and JetBlue. Spirit Airlines and Allegiant Air have also served Denver for a while in the past.

Anyways, I really don't want to continue this discussion any further as it looks like it is going to turn into an anti-UA flamefest...

[Edited 2007-04-06 23:21:46]
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
ScottB
Posts: 5447
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

RE: Old Battle In DEN... Who Will Win This Time?

Sat Apr 07, 2007 6:22 am

Quoting BA (Reply 43):
The latest figures show that United (including Ted and United Express) has a 54.3% marketshare and Frontier (including Frontier JetExpress) has a 20% marketshare. On the other hand, WN's marketshare is just 3.3% which is less than American Airlines.

To be fair, the year-end 2006 numbers are not the "latest figures." Going based on year-to-date market share numbers from DIA through February, WN has a 4.9% marketshare at DEN -- 1% higher than AA. But I agree that WN has quite some way to go before they are "in the same league" as United and Frontier -- assuming that is even their goal for their presence at DEN. Perhaps if they ever reach, say double digits in market share.

Quoting B752OS (Reply 44):
Phoenix is much larger than Denver is, Phoenix has more than 1.4 million people while Denver has a little over 550,000.

I could say that Jacksonville is much larger than Boston (or Denver) since there are nearly 150,000 more people inside the Jacksonville city limits as compared to Boston -- but it is not a meaningful statistic.

Quoting B752OS (Reply 44):
Makes you wonder how big PHL would be if EWR, LGA and JFK were not as close as they are.

Realistically, LGA and JFK probably draw virtually no traffic from PHL. Even EWR likely sees little spillover aside from folks in the ABE area. What probably has a far greater impact is the fact that two of the nation's largest air travel markets -- NYC and WAS/BWI -- are within two hours via ground transportation. From Boston, NYC, BWI, and WAS combined account for nearly 9,000 daily passengers, or 3.3 million annual passengers (and BOS-NYC sees significant impact from ground transportation as well).

One significant geographic factor which contributes to DEN's high O&D numbers is the relative geographic isolation of Denver. ABQ is relatively "close" at 350 miles (and farther on the road). If you want to get anywhere in under a day from Denver, you probably have to fly.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 303dk, Ab345, anonms, Baidu [Spider], Bing [Bot], gen2stew, Google [Bot], gstpa, heavymetal, justplanes, LFW, longhauler, LoudounHound, MAH4546, MaxxFlyer, metroline2006, msycajun, mxguy, nikeson13, nry, OA940, Osubuckeyes, PJ01, qf789, SonomaFlyer, SXDFC, usa4624, vhabr, vhtje, xms3200, Zetheus, ZK-NBT and 368 guests