Beaucaire
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Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Thu Apr 05, 2007 8:37 pm

Analysing the recent shortage of long-haul aircraft on the second-hand market,the artificial differences highlighted on this forum between "this aircraft is better than that ..." seem to have vanished for the carriers.
The potential availability of A330/A340 by Air Canada has led to un unprecedented run on speculations,who might be awarded the aircraft for sale.Basically today any decent maintained 757/777/767/A330/A340 will find a lessor in very short time frame.So we are spending thousands of threads ,trying to explain why this or that aircraft is better than the competitive aircraft-but ,at the end of the day,any of them will find an operator,simply because there is not enough of them available.
That means that none of the two dominant suppliers has any current advantage,since delivery slots are full for the next three years,and by the time the A380 and the 787 have been introduced into fleet-service,things will have balanced.
A&B will remain at a healthy 50/50 market-share- with some shifts from year to year- but I think it's a sign of both companies providing competitive and mature products.
The main danger for those two are in Russia,Brazil and China - the single aisle market will see extraordinary competitiveness and Russia will have an advantage over China in this one.
Competition is healthy in that it pushes for better price/performance ratio - may the best win !
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Revelation
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Thu Apr 05, 2007 9:14 pm

Quoting Beaucaire (Thread starter):
That means that none of the two dominant suppliers has any current advantage,since delivery slots are full for the next three years,and by the time the A380 and the 787 have been introduced into fleet-service,things will have balanced.

Things may level out, but Boeing will have sold hundreds more 787s than Airbus has sold A350s, and sold a similar number of 747-8s as A380s and made much more profit doing so. While A is selling A330s as fast as they can make them, Boeing is selling 777s as fast as they can make them, whilst it's clear A will not make back their investment in A340-500/600. Not exactly a 50/50 split in my book. Add to that, A is trying to move to the industrial model B already has, and the high Euro/Dollar ratio as well.

I agree there's a cyclical nature to the business, but with the EIS of A350 five years from now, it seems to me that there will be a long wait for the pendulum to swing back in A's direction.
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EI321
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Thu Apr 05, 2007 9:27 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):
whilst it's clear A will not make back their investment in A340-500/600.

Is this an assumption, or a fact? [For the record I have no way of knowing either]. Both A & B have made duff investments in the past. Look at how much the 777-300ER has outsold the A340-600. Look at how much the A330-200 has outsold the 767-400.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):
While A is selling A330s as fast as they can make them, Boeing is selling 777s as fast as they can make them

I dont think this is as fast as they can make them at all. Airbus is looking at making them at a faster rate. Im sure Boeing could ramp up production also.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):
Things may level out, but Boeing will have sold hundreds more 787s than Airbus has sold A350s,

Just like Airbus have been selling 000s more A330s than Boeing have been selling 767s. This market (200-400) is something like 5000 aircraft over the next two decades.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):
sold a similar number of 747-8s as A380s and made much more profit doing so

Thats definitly possible, but I think its dodgy to start judging the long term success of the A380 or 747-8 before either even enters service. Its also worth noting that some aircraft models, particularly Airbus', have had a history of poor sales prior to EIS (A320, A330 etc).

[Edited 2007-04-05 14:39:46]
 
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Stitch
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Thu Apr 05, 2007 9:30 pm

When comparing immediate need, that is true for the majority of models, since airlines are apt to take whatever is available because operating economics aren't so critical over the short-term.

But when looking at the longer-term expansion and replacement market, the industry is favoring Boeing product at the moment, though Airbus continues to appeal, as well, and this appeal should increase as the A350XWB nears definition and service.
 
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Thu Apr 05, 2007 9:57 pm

Quoting Beaucaire (Thread starter):
The potential availability of A330/A340 by Air Canada has led to un unprecedented run on speculations,who might be awarded the aircraft for sale

Well, OZ had 34 parties interested in their A332s, these things are selling.

Quoting Beaucaire (Thread starter):
So we are spending thousands of threads ,trying to explain why this or that aircraft is better than the competitive aircraft-but ,at the end of the day,any of them will find an operator,simply because there is not enough of them available.

Wait for the next big crises, than you'll see who has more in the desert.

Quoting Beaucaire (Thread starter):
Basically today any decent maintained 757/777/767/A330/A340 will find a lessor in very short time frame.

I'm not so sure about 757 and 767. Aren't there some in the desert?
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EI321
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Thu Apr 05, 2007 9:59 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 4):
Quoting Beaucaire (Thread starter):
Basically today any decent maintained 757/777/767/A330/A340 will find a lessor in very short time frame.

I'm not so sure about 757 and 767. Aren't there some in the desert?

Yep but these are mostly the earlier models, particularly the non-ER 767 varients.
 
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Thu Apr 05, 2007 10:00 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 4):

I'm not so sure about 757 and 767. Aren't there some in the desert?

I think well looked after 757s are highly prized but obviously any plane that is poorly maintained, damaged etc may not be in demand - remember that one of Varigs T7s was recently parted out
 
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Thu Apr 05, 2007 10:49 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 2):
I dont think this is as fast as they can make them at all. Airbus is looking at making them at a faster rate. Im sure Boeing could ramp up production also.

I think both are making them at the fastest rate that makes sense business wise, or at least I hope so.

Ramping up then ramping down before it pays off is a very expensive thing to do and risk analysis drives these decisions now more than ever after some blunders in this area.
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Alessandro
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Thu Apr 05, 2007 10:54 pm

So the old Il-62 and Il-86 will soldier on then, together with the Il-96 due to airplane shortage in this size?
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Thu Apr 05, 2007 11:40 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):
whilst it's clear A will not make back their investment in A340-500/600

You sure? Anyways, what about the 343? That's been quite a seller, AFAIK.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):
I agree there's a cyclical nature to the business, but with the EIS of A350 five years from now, it seems to me that there will be a long wait for the pendulum to swing back in A's direction.

Agree.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 4):
I'm not so sure about 757 and 767. Aren't there some in the desert?

Don't know about the desert, but no matter what the 757 does not really fit here anyways - it does not have the range and indeed not the capacity (in particular cargo) to be a significant player in this market.

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 6):
remember that one of Varigs T7s was recently parted out

Well, I think one should be cautious of concluding too much on the basis of this; it was a desperate airline with different lessors for engines / A/C frames, probably nothing more than that.

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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 12:17 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):
whilst it's clear A will not make back their investment in A340-500/600.

I don't have a way to know, but I really think it is far from "clear". They sold 150 of them (32 345 and 121 346) I think it can't be too far from making a profit, specially been a derivative.

Just for comparation porpouses, the 764 sold 38 frames and most people in here say that they made a profit just with Delta's 21 planes.

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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 12:25 am

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 6):
I think well looked after 757s are highly prized but obviously any plane that is poorly maintained, damaged etc may not be in demand - remember that one of Varigs T7s was recently parted out

This really is the key for any second hand airframe. I dont care how old or new it may be, if the owner didnt take proper care of it, the airframe may be worth more parted out than flying.
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 12:48 am

Whether or not Airbus makes back their investment in the A340-500/600 depends on your view on how many they will sell (and deliver). At current margins, they need to sell about ~300 - 320 frames to breakeven (that's if I recall correctly and the investment was $3.5 bn)
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 1:48 am

Quoting Beaucaire (Thread starter):
That means that none of the two dominant suppliers has any current advantage,since delivery slots are full for the next three years,and by the time the A380 and the 787 have been introduced into fleet-service,things will have balanced.

I can't agree with this, as Airbus has really shot themselves in the foot, first by developing the A380 in the first place and then by screwing it up. If this were really the situation the first variants of the A350 would have attracted more interest, as at that point they could have been delivered in comparable time frames as the 787. Instead, the airlines sent Airbus back to the woodshed. It is true that second hand long haul planes are a scarce commodity, but no airline is going to order an inferior new airliner just because they can get it sooner than the one they really want. If you don't have a plane that you want you don't make the money you think you could, but if you settle for one that has higher costs and your competitor has one that has lower costs you end up losing money. When you consider the costs of buying or leasing a new airliner and the fact that it is not always easy to get rid of it without taking a bath financially you can understand that airlines will be extremely reluctant to order anything other than the one that will in their opinion offer the greatest return. Airbus MUST get the A350 right and must also answer Y1 when Boeing comes out with it or they will be in deep trouble. The A380 is a distraction from these tasks, and IMHO will never make any money.
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 1:54 am

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 8):
So the old Il-62 and Il-86 will soldier on then, together with the Il-96 due to airplane shortage in this size?

Unfortunately not. The widebody shortage is limited to the newer post 1987 families, the older A-300, A-310, 747-200/300, DC-10, L-1011 and 767-200(non ER) are also disappearing from the passenger market, either being scrapped or sold fairly cheap as freighters. The Il-62s and 86s are even less able to survive in the current market as the 'obsolete' widebodies I just mentioned as they are very noisy and fuel-thirsty.
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 1:55 am

Quoting Beaucaire (Thread starter):
That means that none of the two dominant suppliers has any current advantage,since delivery slots are full for the next three years,and by the time the A380 and the 787 have been introduced into fleet-service,things will have balanced.
A&B will remain at a healthy 50/50 market-share- with some shifts from year to year- but I think it's a sign of both companies providing competitive and mature products.

The last time I checked, Boeing had 514 orders for the 787 and it hasn't even been introduced. What part of that incredible number do you not see as an advantage in Boeing's direction?  Yeah sure
 
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 2:05 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 2):
Thats definitly possible, but I think its dodgy to start judging the long term success of the A380 or 747-8 before either even enters service. Its also worth noting that some aircraft models, particularly Airbus', have had a history of poor sales prior to EIS (A320, A330 etc).

Considering it has been 7 years since launch, it is getting to the point where a judgement on the A380 success is being shaped by itself.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):
I agree there's a cyclical nature to the business, but with the EIS of A350 five years from now, it seems to me that there will be a long wait for the pendulum to swing back in A's direction.

Was it not the CEO before Mr. Gallois that said it will take Airbus 10 years to catch up to Boeing?
 
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 2:22 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 2):
Just like Airbus have been selling 000s more A330s than Boeing have been selling 767s. This market (200-400) is something like 5000 aircraft over the next two decades.

767?

Haven't you heard of the 787? It's Boeings offering in this market and has 514 orders.
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mindscape
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 2:45 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 18):
Haven't you heard of the 787? It's Boeings offering in this market and has 514 orders.

787 ?

Have you seen it fly yet ?
 
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 3:04 am

Quoting Mindscape (Reply 19):
Have you seen it fly yet ?

Can you say $72 Billion in orders for this aircraft? If the airlines are willing to spend that kind of money on this aircraft before it even flies, can you imagine what it will be like when it shows that it is the MOST efficient aircraft around!
 
EI321
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 3:10 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 18):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 2):
Just like Airbus have been selling 000s more A330s than Boeing have been selling 767s. This market (200-400) is something like 5000 aircraft over the next two decades.

767?

Haven't you heard of the 787? It's Boeings offering in this market and has 514 orders.

Its Boeings offering in the marketplace from 2008 onwards (and dererves every order it gets because it was a long time coming), their third attempt at a rival to the A330 (fourth if you include the 777-200A) and their second production attempt (third if you include the 777-200A). The A330-200 will be a decade in service by 2008.
 
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolet

Fri Apr 06, 2007 3:31 am

Quoting Mindscape (Reply 19):
Have you seen it fly yet ?

Which is rather irrelevant, considering that the topic at hand is orders and not performance  Yeah sure
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 3:34 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 21):
Its Boeings offering in the marketplace from 2008 onwards (and dererves every order it gets because it was a long time coming), their third attempt at a rival to the A330 (fourth if you include the 777-200A) and their second production attempt (third if you include the 777-200A). The A330-200 will be a decade in service by 2008.

There's no question that the A330 is a great aircraft; the 777 did not overshadow it because it (777) was more geared to long range routes, and the A330 is more efficient for shorter routes. The only direct answer to the A330 before the 787 that Boeing attempted was the 764, which flopped. That being said, we're in a new game now. The 787 is going head to head with the A330 and winning, and once it enters service and the initial backlog is worked off Airbus will find it difficult to sell additional A330's. When the 787-10 comes out it will dry up the market for the 772's, but Boeing doesn't care about that. It will completely wipe out what remains of the market for A340's.
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EI321
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 3:40 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 23):
we're in a new game now.

Yes we are and Boeing have a head start!

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 23):
once it enters service and the initial backlog is worked off Airbus will find it difficult to sell additional A330's.

Except for one thing. By the time the current 787 backlog is worked off the A330 replacement will be in service.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 23):
When the 787-10 comes out it will dry up the market for the 772's, but Boeing doesn't care about that. It will completely wipe out what remains of the market for A340's.

As above by the time the 787-10 enters service the A340 replacement will already be in revenue service.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 3:40 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 21):
Its Boeings offering in the marketplace from 2008 onwards

I'ts been offered in the marketplace since 2004.
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Tancrede
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 3:52 am

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 22):
Quoting Mindscape (Reply 19):
Have you seen it fly yet ?

Which is rather irrelevant, considering that the topic at hand is orders and not performance

Sorry, but this is very relevant question when throwing around cheap conclusion.

As you have seen with Airbus and its A380, a lot of things, good and bad, can happen before the first plane reach its first customer. So, it is very healthy to wait patiently what really will happen in the future. (I believe that no one here is a medium or tell me if I am wrong)
 
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 4:10 am

Quoting Beaucaire (Thread starter):
Analysing the recent shortage of long-haul aircraft on the second-hand market,the artificial differences highlighted on this forum between "this aircraft is better than that ..." seem to have vanished for the carriers.

Not true at all.

Don't confuse the used market with the new market.

If the 'which is better' argument had vanished, you'd see 767s being sold en masse just because you can get them sooner than a 787, A330, 777 or A350. You'd see A345/6 selling like crazy because they are available sooner than 777s or 787s or A350s. You would have seen Airbus keep it's A300/310 line open to cover the medium haul market since demand would have been so high. Passenger 747-400s would have continued selling with no need for the 748. The A380 would have 400 orders by now.

Just because "low ball" carriers and big airlines looking for quick capacity increases are having trouble finding used jets doesn't mean that the Airbus vs. Boeing product argument is moot. Airlines are still only buying the products they know make sense for them on the new market: 787, A330, 777 and A350. Freight carriers are buying 747s and 777s and A330Fs now.

Further, carriers would be grabbing 742s and DC10s out of the desert if there really was such a crunch that meant that the quality and cost of the product doesn't matter.

Even if there is a shortage of quality used cars out there, it doesn't mean people are going to be able to afford new cars as an alternative, nor does it mean that people buying those new cars are going to just take "any old car" since they know it has a good used value.
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flysherwood
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 4:19 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 24):
Yes we are and Boeing have a head start!

Whose fault is that?

Quoting EI321 (Reply 24):
Except for one thing. By the time the current 787 backlog is worked off the A330 replacement will be in service.

You mean 20 years from now? Or are you thinking that the 787 stops selling at say 600 units?

Quoting EI321 (Reply 24):
As above by the time the 787-10 enters service the A340 replacement will already be in revenue service.

They don't even have the design set on the A350XWB? Do you really believe that the A350XWB will beat the 787-10 into service? Who says they are not going to redesign the A350 once again? I wouldn't be placing a lot of faith in Airbus' ability to deliver on time right now. They have 0 credibility from that standpoint.  Yeah sure
 
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 4:32 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 24):
Except for one thing. By the time the current 787 backlog is worked off the A330 replacement will be in service.

I would question this; the A350XWB is larger than the A330 and I suspect the 787 will win most of the A330 replacement orders.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 24):
As above by the time the 787-10 enters service the A340 replacement will already be in revenue service.

I'll agree with this one; the 787-10 and A350-900 from what I see will be pretty comparable and will fight it out for the A340 market.
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EI321
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 4:37 am

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 28):
Do you really believe that the A350XWB will beat the 787-10 into service?

Yes. If only by a year.

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 28):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 24):
Except for one thing. By the time the current 787 backlog is worked off the A330 replacement will be in service.

You mean 20 years from now?

2013. Thats 7 years from now.

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 28):
They have 0 credibility from that standpoint.

What can I say, Its statements like this which have zero credibility. Order backlogs speak for themselves.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 27):
You'd see A345/6 selling like crazy because they are available sooner than 777s or 787s or A350s.

Dont forget the A330!

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 25):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 21):
Its Boeings offering in the marketplace from 2008 onwards

I'ts been offered in the marketplace since 2004.

Yes, but it wont enter service until next year. In that case, the A330 has been in the market place since 1987.
 
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 4:38 am

Quoting Beaucaire (Thread starter):
That means that none of the two dominant suppliers has any current advantage,since delivery slots are full for the next three years,and by the time the A380 and the 787 have been introduced into fleet-service,things will have balanced.
A&B will remain at a healthy 50/50 market-share- with some shifts from year to year- but I think it's a sign of both companies providing competitive and mature products.

Either manufacturer is probably able to sell out capacity so long as they offer products cheaply enough. However, the quality of the product (be it A or B) vs the total cost to bring it to market can offer huge advantages to either manufacturer (even if they are splitting sales 50/50).

The 787 appears to be the best current example of a product (airliner) that is cheap to produce while providing great value to customers (helping both ends of Boeing's bottom line and thus giving Boeing an "advantage"). Although not a direct competitor, look at the A380's problems to get an idea of how much money can be eaten up in bringing an undertaking this large to market if one's house is not in order ahead of time.

If your assertion was that neither company was at a meaningful "advantage" when it came to a saturation of production capacity then I apologize for jumping to conclusions with my comments above. However, I would then question the significance of your assertion in the much larger picture of company health.
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flysherwood
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 4:49 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 30):
What can I say, Its statements like this which have zero credibility. Order backlogs speak for themselves.

You mean like 160+ units 7 years after intro? The A380 is 2 years late and the A350 has gone through 2 or is it 3 different designs! There is the 0 credibility with regards to on time delivery of new frames!
 
EI321
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 4:52 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 29):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 24):
Except for one thing. By the time the current 787 backlog is worked off the A330 replacement will be in service.

I would question this; the A350XWB is larger than the A330 and I suspect the 787 will win most of the A330 replacement orders.

Doubt it. The 787 is not the exact same size as the A330 either.

Look at the 767 replacement market for instance. 767 operators are falling for the 787 hook, line & sinker as a replacement, despite it being considerable larger than the 767 (moreso than the A350 Vs the A330).

There is a market trend towards larger widebodies.

762 - 787-8 larger
763 - 787-9 larger
764 - 787-9 larger
772 - 787-10 larger
A332 - A350-800 larger
A333 - A350-900 larger
A343 - A350-900 larger
744 - 747-8 larger

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 29):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 24):
As above by the time the 787-10 enters service the A340 replacement will already be in revenue service.

I'll agree with this one; the 787-10 and A350-900 from what I see will be pretty comparable and will fight it out for the A340 market.

I think the market is crying out for the 787-10, it should have been launched before the 787-3. If Boeing launched it sooner they could have got a clear edge over the A350 with airlines like BA, EK, SQ, etc.
 
flysherwood
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 4:57 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 33):
I think the market is crying out for the 787-10, it should have been launched before the 787-3. If Boeing launched it sooner they could have got a clear edge over the A350 with airlines like BA, EK, SQ, etc.

You are absolutely correct here. How many 787-3 have been sold?
 
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolet

Fri Apr 06, 2007 4:59 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 30):
Yes, but it wont enter service until next year. In that case, the A330 has been in the market place since 1987.

Yes, that's true. Do you understand what offered in the marketplace means?

It means it's being marketed--offered for sale in the marketplace.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 30):
2013. Thats 7 years from now.

I wouldn't bet my retirement on the A350XWB entering service in 2013.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 30):
Order backlogs speak for themselves.

Which are you referring to?

The 11 orders for the A350XWB?

To me that likely means another redesign and hence, another delay.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
EI321
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 5:01 am

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 32):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 30):
What can I say, Its statements like this which have zero credibility. Order backlogs speak for themselves.

You mean like 160 units 7 years after intro?

Yes I do. And IMO opinion if should be less at at this moment considering how they f***ed up the development programe. Correct me if Im wrong, but is that the highest number of sales that Airbus have ever had for a model prior to EIS? In any case, thats one bad fly in a jar of otherwise very pleasant ointment.

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 34):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 33):
I think the market is crying out for the 787-10, it should have been launched before the 787-3. If Boeing launched it sooner they could have got a clear edge over the A350 with airlines like BA, EK, SQ, etc.

You are absolutely correct here. How many 787-3 have been sold?

I believe 50. However thats 50 aircraft that would have been sold eventually anyway, considering that the 787-3 has no real rivals (unless you count the A333, which would never be ordered by JAL/ANA/American/Delta anyway). And its 50 production slots that the 787-10 would have easily filled (and maybe stole a few A350 orders while its at it!).

[Edited 2007-04-05 22:03:16]
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 5:04 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 32):
If Boeing launched it sooner they could have got a clear edge over the A350 with airlines like BA, EK, SQ, etc.

When the 787 was launched the A350 wasn't even a gleam in John Leahy's eye. The big hole in Boeing's lineup was the 767, which was (and still is) selling like week-old hotcakes. As it was to be the first of a whole new family of Boeing aircraft the goal was to position it to cover the weakest spot in the current lineup, and cover the rest later. The 787-10 is clearly in 777 territory, and as the 777 was (and still is) selling very well there was no reason to target it first. Airbus had the same opportunity when they launched the A350, which was to aim it at the weakest point in their lineup, which happened to be the A340/777 market, as they were getting slaughtered there.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
EI321
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 5:06 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 34):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 30):
Order backlogs speak for themselves.

Which are you referring to?

The 11 orders for the A350XWB?

I think we both know that number will look very different by 2012 (if you are comparing it to the 787 figure).
 
deltadc9
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 5:06 am

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 34):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 33):
I think the market is crying out for the 787-10, it should have been launched before the 787-3. If Boeing launched it sooner they could have got a clear edge over the A350 with airlines like BA, EK, SQ, etc.

You are absolutely correct here. How many 787-3 have been sold?

Absolutely wrong, when two of your best most loyal customers say build the 783 and we will be your launch customers, you say yes.

And how can you imply with a strait face that the 787 does not have a clear edge period with over 500 sold before the first one is assembled. You are actually saying that Boeing, even though they now have the most successful widbody in history, somehow made an obvious mistake. Bull.

Also, there WAS no A350 when the 783 was concieved. And the 783 has a clear target market the rest of which will become obvious soon enough.

Please do not drink the bong water.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 33):
There is a market trend towards larger widebodies.

762 - 787-8 larger
763 - 787-9 larger
764 - 787-9 larger
772 - 787-10 larger
A332 - A350-800 larger
A333 - A350-900 larger
A343 - A350-900 larger
744 - 747-8 larger

Really? Then why is it the the bigger you go the smaller the volume of sales? VOLUME makes money, not big sexy planes.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
EI321
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 5:08 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 39):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 33):
There is a market trend towards larger widebodies.

762 - 787-8 larger
763 - 787-9 larger
764 - 787-9 larger
772 - 787-10 larger
A332 - A350-800 larger
A333 - A350-900 larger
A343 - A350-900 larger
744 - 747-8 larger

Really? Then why is it the the bigger you go the smaller the volume of sales?

That contradicts tha current 787 sales figures!
 
flysherwood
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 5:13 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 35):
Correct me if Im wrong, but is that the highest number of sales that Airbus have ever had for a model prior to EIS? In any case, thats one bad fly in a jar of otherwise very pleasant ointment.

I don't think there has been any aircraft that took 7 years to get to EIS ever. It has still not been entered into service! So that is not exactly a high point that they have more units sold before EIS than any other Airbus equipment. They have averaged about 23 units sold a year since Introduction. That is not burning anything except their own pockets. ? Sad
 
EI321
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 5:16 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 37):
The 787-10 is clearly in 777 territory

Its a shark (get it?   ) in the 777s swimming pool.

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 41):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 35):
Correct me if Im wrong, but is that the highest number of sales that Airbus have ever had for a model prior to EIS? In any case, thats one bad fly in a jar of otherwise very pleasant ointment.

I don't think there has been any aircraft that took 7 years to get to EIS ever.

The A330 - Launched 1987, EIS 1994.

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 41):
They have averaged about 23 units sold a year since Introduction.

Well the target is 20 orders per year. As with all Airbus products to date, time will tell, but its not a case of so far, so good. The A330 got one single order in the year before its EIS, and the 777 got zero orders in the year before its EIS.

[Edited 2007-04-05 22:20:02]
 
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 5:19 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 41):
Its a shark (get it? ) in the 777s swimming pool.

Exactly, which is why Boeing didn't launch it sooner.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
deltadc9
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 5:22 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 40):
That contradicts tha current 787 sales figures!

No, 787 sized planes sell more than 777 sized planes which sell more than 747 sized planes which sell more than 380 sized planes.

Its pretty obvious. the projected sales for 787 sized planes dwarfs all larger models.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
EI321
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 5:34 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 44):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 40):
That contradicts tha current 787 sales figures!

No,

Yes it does, other wise the 787 would have been smaller than the 767. Gererally, the larger the plane the smaller the market. However, as I said, there is a current trend of manufacturers building new aircraft larger than the models they replace, as is shown below.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 33):
762 - 787-8 larger
763 - 787-9 larger
764 - 787-9 larger
772 - 787-10 larger
A332 - A350-800 larger
A333 - A350-900 larger
A343 - A350-900 larger
744 - 747-8 larger


Quoting SEPilot (Reply 37):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 32):
If Boeing launched it sooner they could have got a clear edge over the A350 with airlines like BA, EK, SQ, etc.

When the 787 was launched the A350 wasn't even a gleam in John Leahy's eye.

Who the hell listens to that Joker?  Smile

[Edited 2007-04-05 22:37:23]
 
flysherwood
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 5:39 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 45):
Who the hell listens to that Joker?

He reminds me of a used car salesman!!!
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 5:42 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 45):
However, as I said, there is a current trend of manufacturers building new aircraft larger than the models they replace, as is shown below.

This does not mean that airlines looking to replace old aircraft necessarily want larger ones. If that were the case 737 and A320 sales would be languishing instead of exploding. It is still necessary to look at the same sizes in new and old planes; ad DeltaDC9 has pointed out, as size goes up sale numbers go down. I think that the 787 would have been smaller if it hadn't been for the overall Yellowstone strategy; there is a thread about Y1 being two models, one single aisle and one twin aisle. I'm quite sure that all of this was roughed out before the 787 was launched, and would explain why the 787 is larger than the 767, even though it was aimed to replace the 767.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
EI321
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 5:44 am

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 46):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 45):
Who the hell listens to that Joker?

He reminds me of a used car salesman!!!

What kind of a place do you buy your cars from?  Smile Hes far worse than any car salesman! He reminds me of one of those guys who call to your door trying to sell you stuff you dont need. No, actually hes like one of those guys who sell fitness equipment on shopping channels! Big grin
 
EI321
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 6:08 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 47):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 45):
However, as I said, there is a current trend of manufacturers building new aircraft larger than the models they replace, as is shown below.

This does not mean that airlines looking to replace old aircraft necessarily want larger ones.

It applies generally to widebodies.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 47):
If that were the case 737 and A320 sales would be languishing instead of exploding.

Shorthaul is different, its more fragmented & point to point orientated, not to mention being more saturated.

There is some evidence of airlines going for larger models in shorthaul, for instance I think the 738 is the best selling 737 at the moment?

.......I guess airlines want to lower CASMs as much as possible, which helps explain the terrific 787 sales.

[Edited 2007-04-05 23:25:33]
 
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RE: Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...

Fri Apr 06, 2007 6:20 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 45):
Who the hell listens to that Joker?

Hey, to be fair to the guy, he has done his best to put his company in the best possible light. He has gone overboard a few times, but most of the time he has been undercut by Airbus's stumbles.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 49):
Shorthaul is different, its more fragmented & point to point orientated, not to mention being more saturated.

Good point.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler

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