tonytifao
Posts: 788
Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2005 10:22 pm

US Service To CNF?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 9:53 am

CNF once had AA, UA and CO service. AA pulled out in the last couple of years. Could we ever see them back? Could Delta ever try even if it was to connect in GIG or GRU?
 
MAH4546
Posts: 24596
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: US Service To CNF?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 9:55 am

You'll see AA back with 757s in the future, probably within 2-3 years. You won't see anybody else. Future growth in the US-Brazil market by carriers other than AA will focus on Northeast Brazilian resorts, most likely.

[Edited 2007-04-06 03:00:23]
a.
 
jmc1975
Posts: 2897
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2000 10:57 am

RE: US Service To CNF?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 9:58 am

CNF is where? "Can Not Find"
.......
 
Danairbus
Posts: 401
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2006 5:14 am

RE: US Service To CNF?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 10:02 am

Quoting Jmc1975 (Reply 2):
CNF is where?

Belo Horizonte, Brazil
 
worldtraveler
Posts: 3417
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2003 6:18 am

RE: US Service To CNF?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 11:53 am

I wouldn't be so sure that other carriers will stay only in the NE of Brazil. That may be where the next round of growth occurs but that hardly means it will be the only place any other airline will serve.

Brazil has many cities that are worthy of air service to the US; fragmentation of the market away from GRU and GIG is just beginning. It will certainly accelerate and other US airlines, including AA, will serve more cities throughout the country.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 24596
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: US Service To CNF?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 12:00 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 4):
I wouldn't be so sure that other carriers will stay only in the NE of Brazil. That may be where the next round of growth occurs but that hardly means it will be the only place any other airline will serve.

In the near future (3-5 years), yes, I would be absolutely sure. Besides, AA is going to be the only one making major strides into Brazil, with some action by Delta. I doubt UA or CO will do anything.
a.
 
tonytifao
Posts: 788
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 12:11 pm

MAH4546,

Just curios! I see a lot of your postings in Brazil aviation. How is your involvement in Brazil aviation? Thanks for providing all the great news.

Thanks,
Tony
 
worldtraveler
Posts: 3417
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2003 6:18 am

RE: US Service To CNF?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 12:45 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 5):
Besides, AA is going to be the only one making major strides into Brazil, with some action by Delta.

and what makes you think that AA is going to be alone in expanding in Latin America, esp. Brazil? DL and CO have grown far more in Latin America than AA has. CO and DL combined now have as much share as AA in Latin America. AA has the lowest share of the US-Latin America market than it has had since it took over EA's Latin American operation. Further, CO and DL have widebody planes on order and in the process of conversion in the next few years; what does AA have coming? CO and DL also have many longhaul deployable 757s as well.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 24596
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: US Service To CNF?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 1:42 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 7):
and what makes you think that AA is going to be alone in expanding in Latin America, esp. Brazil?

And what makes you think that I said Latin America? I said Brazil. Plenty of things make me think AA will be alone in it. For one, the market is untapped, but it is not so huge that there is room for everyone. AA has a huge heads up here. Secondly, until Brazil eases up on visa restrictions, the market is going to be limited. It is going to have to serve Brazilians traveling to the USA. They are pretty much going to Miami, Orlando, and New York City.


Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 7):
Further, CO and DL have widebody planes on order and in the process of conversion in the next few years; what does AA have coming?

Plenty. Just wait for Paris. Incase you forgot, American Airlines obtained purchase rights for the 787 this past week. The first step towards their pending order.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 7):
DL and CO have grown far more in Latin America than AA has. CO and DL combined now have as much share as AA in Latin America. AA has the lowest share of the US-Latin America market than it has had since it took over EA's Latin American operation.

Of course they've grown. Seriously, you more than anybody love to overplay statistics. If an airline goes from zero pressence in Latin America to a medium pressence, then they have obviously grown much more than an airline that has always been, and still is, the established airline in the region. Delta should worry about how they are going to fill planes to current poor performing destinations - like Managua and San Pedro Sula - before looking at Belo Horizonte and Fortaleza.

Continental has never been agressive in South America, quickly pulling out of poor performing markets, and has focused on the large ones. I don't think they will be expanding much.

For Delta to get real aggressive in Latin America, they need to become more aggressive out of South Florida and New York City, which they are slowly starting to do.

[Edited 2007-04-06 06:53:13]
a.
 
LipeGIG
Posts: 5050
Joined: Tue May 03, 2005 7:33 am

RE: US Service To CNF?

Fri Apr 06, 2007 10:12 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 4):
Brazil has many cities that are worthy of air service to the US; fragmentation of the market away from GRU and GIG is just beginning

In fact the market to be fragmented out of GRU, GIG has only 2 daily non-stops to the US and for sure also need more flights. Now we have 16 flights to GRU, it's where the Brazilian market is consolidated nowadays. People use to say "the money is there", but it's also in the rest of the country.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 5):
In the near future (3-5 years), yes, I would be absolutely sure. Besides, AA is going to be the only one making major strides into Brazil, with some action by Delta. I doubt UA or CO will do anything.

It depends if Brazilian become smart to compare that Argentina will have more flights to the US with 1/5 of the population in 2009, even far from the US and also with 1/4 of Brazilian GDP.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 8):
Continental has never been agressive in South America, quickly pulling out of poor performing markets, and has focused on the large ones. I don't think they will be expanding much.

Agree 100% and i can't expect a change in the near future.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 8):
For Delta to get real aggressive in Latin America, they need to become more aggressive out of South Florida and New York City, which they are slowly starting to do.

DL has a strong presence in New York, but agree that they need to try to connect more JFK to South America. IMO they will try JFK-EZE and if they can get additional frequencies in the future JFK-GIG.

Quoting Tonytifao (Thread starter):
CNF once had AA, UA and CO service. AA pulled out in the last couple of years. Could we ever see them back? Could Delta ever try even if it was to connect in GIG or GRU?

AA has the best condition to fly to CNF because of MIA hub and it's the only one that could do it non stop. DL would be a surprise and only as a tag to GIG or GRU, IMO.

Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
worldtraveler
Posts: 3417
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2003 6:18 am

RE: US Service To CNF?

Sat Apr 07, 2007 10:59 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 8):
And what makes you think that I said Latin America? I said Brazil. Plenty of things make me think AA will be alone in it. For one, the market is untapped, but it is not so huge that there is room for everyone. AA has a huge heads up here. Secondly, until Brazil eases up on visa restrictions, the market is going to be limited. It is going to have to serve Brazilians traveling to the USA. They are pretty much going to Miami, Orlando, and New York City.

you simply don't want to admit that AA has some serious competition.

BTW, DL has operated at times just one less flight from ATL to Brazil than AA has from powerful MIA. DL serves every major market in Latin America that AA serves - a network that has all been built in 10 years. And DL has built ATL into the 2nd largest South American gateway in the US.

Just because AA acquired EA's Latin American operation doesn't mean it will own the market for the rest of time.

And while it is true that CO has not been as aggressive in S. America has DL has, they are still a formidable competitor in the total Latin America market.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 8):
Plenty. Just wait for Paris. Incase you forgot, American Airlines obtained purchase rights for the 787 this past week.

They should be... esp. considering that DL, NW, and CO all have ULH aircraft on order to be delivered in the next couple years.

Suppose AA's pilots will agree to fly the 787?

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 8):
For Delta to get real aggressive in Latin America, they need to become more aggressive out of South Florida and New York City, which they are slowly starting to do.

DL operates the same number of NYC to Brazil nonstop routes as AA does - 1. And DL will almost certainly be flying JFK-EZE before this year is out.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 9):
It depends if Brazilian become smart to compare that Argentina will have more flights to the US with 1/5 of the population in 2009, even far from the US and also with 1/4 of Brazilian GDP.

Brazil will figure it out. Their airline industry and ATC is in major transition (to put it mildly). They surely realize the implications for the Brazilian economy. And FWIW, Bush and Lula seem to have become regular bosom buddies.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 24596
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Sat Apr 07, 2007 12:13 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 10):
BTW, DL has operated at times just one less flight from ATL to Brazil than AA has from powerful MIA.

Wrong. American Airlines never operates less than 26 weekly Miami-Brazil flights. Delta has never flown more than 21. American Airlines operates a maximum of 38 weekly flights. Most of the year they operate 33 - 21 to GRU and 12 to GIG - now that MIA-GIG's second frequency operates during the summer months, too. And, what a surprise, you play with facts to make Delta seem like God. When Delta is operatating 18 weekly Atlanta-Brazil flights, American is operating 38. When Delta is operating 14, American is operating 28 or 33.

And that second Atlanta-Sao Paulo frequency must be doing so well considering the frequency has already been cut to only 4x weekly.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 10):

you simply don't want to admit that AA has some serious competition.

I've never said it wasn't serious compeition. I have said it does not threaten AA's dominant pressence. It doesn't. You refuse to acknowledge that I give Delta credit where credit is due. They have done very well in Latin America, with a few exceptions. They still aren't going to seriously threaten AA. Not now, not ever.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 10):
DL operates the same number of NYC to Brazil nonstop routes as AA does - 1. And DL will almost certainly be flying JFK-EZE before this year is out.

You are the king of playing with facts. When did I ever talk about Brazil routes? Never. I said Latin American routes.

[Edited 2007-04-07 05:19:01]

[Edited 2007-04-07 05:20:01]
a.
 
elmothehobo
Posts: 967
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Sat Apr 07, 2007 4:33 pm

Man world traveler, you are the king of DL spin! I don't mean to answer for Mark, but there is another point of view.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 7):
and what makes you think that AA is going to be alone in expanding in Latin America, esp. Brazil?

Miami. The biggest O/D destination for Brazilians in the US is Florida (IIRC). It figures that American will go out and tap smaller cities once the bilateral allows for it.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 7):
DL and CO have grown far more in Latin America than AA has.

That is because the bilateral in place favors smaller/incumbent carriers to established carriers. If there were no restrictions there is not doubt in my mind that just about every major city in Brazil would have a flight to Miami on American.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 7):
CO and DL combined now have as much share as AA in Latin America.

That isn't saying much. You're taking the next two biggest carriers to Latin America and adding up their operations that just BARELY adds up to the size of the biggest. You'd be hard pressed to find another market where a US carrier is that big.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 7):
AA has the lowest share of the US-Latin America market than it has had since it took over EA's Latin American operation.

Again, new carriers and a restrictive bilateral.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 7):
Further, CO and DL have widebody planes on order and in the process of conversion in the next few years; what does AA have coming? CO and DL also have many longhaul deployable 757s as well.

American has a plethora of 757s that could be deployed to South America. American has rights to 787s AND it could double the number of flights it offered (assuming a relaxation of bilaterals) to deep south america by simply turning aircraft around and operating daylight return and departures, without adding a single new aircraft. Delta and Continental would be unable to offer such a flight without ungodly departure / arrival times because of the location of their hubs.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 10):
BTW, DL has operated at times just one less flight from ATL to Brazil than AA has from powerful MIA. DL serves every major market in Latin America that AA serves - a network that has all been built in 10 years. And DL has built ATL into the 2nd largest South American gateway in the US.

You're comparing two different schedules at different times of the year. That's called fuzzy numbers.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 10):
They should be... esp. considering that DL, NW, and CO all have ULH aircraft on order to be delivered in the next couple years.

DL has 777LRs which won't be used to Latin America. Northwest has no reason to serve South America, I don't know why you included them in the tally.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 10):
DL operates the same number of NYC to Brazil nonstop routes as AA does - 1. And DL will almost certainly be flying JFK-EZE before this year is out.

American also operates a three class 777, Delta operates a two class 767.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 11):
Wrong.

That pretty much sums everything up.
 
BigGSFO
Posts: 2214
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2005 5:27 am

RE: US Service To CNF?

Sat Apr 07, 2007 11:42 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 10):
BTW, DL has operated at times just one less flight from ATL to Brazil than AA has from powerful MIA. DL serves every major market in Latin America that AA serves - a network that has all been built in 10 years. And DL has built ATL into the 2nd largest South American gateway in the US.

Well good for DL. Of course, let's talk yield and profit. Arguably DL is making some sort of profit ATL-South America (otherwise they'd be pulling out - I'd assume) however there's no comparing the two gateways. MIA's yield crushes ATL - and taking it a step further, AA is able to fill much more of their South American flights with a higher percentage of local traffic/O&D. If it wasn't for the feed, ATL's success in South America would be rather limited. And connecting passengers dilutes the profit. AA could very well flood the market with many more flights MIA-South America but that would wreck the yields and profit.

But carry on about ATL and DL and their quest for world domination. It's always fun to read your posts.  Smile
 
commavia
Posts: 9787
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: US Service To CNF?

Sat Apr 07, 2007 11:56 pm

Well, I suppose it was only a matter of time before this same old argument resurfaced again ...

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 7):
DL and CO have grown far more in Latin America than AA has.

That's because both used to be, and still are, a blip on the radar screen. When you already fly to basically every major city you're allowed to in a region, as AA does, and sometimes with 3 or 4 times as many flights as everyone else, there isn't much growth left to do.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 7):
CO and DL combined now have as much share as AA in Latin America.

Hardly.

Delta and Continental together still only barely equal two thirds of the size of AA to Latin America. Delta, alone, carries less than one third the number of passengers to Latin America as AA, and that is all of Latin America. If we isolated just South America, and removed the Caribbean, Central America and Mexico, the disparity between Delta and AA would be even larger.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 7):
Further, CO and DL have widebody planes on order and in the process of conversion in the next few years; what does AA have coming?

AA has Miami coming. That trumps all the 787s Continental will be flying from Newark to La Paz, Bolivia, or the newly reconfigured Delta 767-400s that will be plying the huge Atlanta-Porto Alegre market.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 10):
you simply don't want to admit that AA has some serious competition.

And you simply don't want to admit that the sun doesn't rise and set on Atlanta. As I have said oh so many times to you and others on A.net, Delta's aggressive growth in the South American market over the last 10 years has been admirable and impressive. However, that being said, honestly contemplating them ever being able to give AA out of Miami a run for their money with their Atlanta hub any time in the next 50 years is, really, just ridiculous.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 10):
DL serves every major market in Latin America that AA serves - a network that has all been built in 10 years.

I haven't seen Delta try Belo Horizonte, or Porto Alegre, or Montevideo, or Asuncion, or La Paz, or Santa Cruz de la Sierra, or Cali, or Medellin, or Maracaibo in the last 10 years. And, in virtually every single city that both airlines serve in Latin America, with perhaps 1 or 2 exceptions, Delta's presence is a fraction of AA's. Sorry, but that's just reality.
 
worldtraveler
Posts: 3417
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2003 6:18 am

RE: US Service To CNF?

Sun Apr 08, 2007 12:49 am

I do get a kick out of how defensive you all get about AA and its beloved Latin American operation. Perhap it's because it's the only region of the world where AA still maintains some sort of advantage. But you GROSSLY jump to the conclusion that this means AA will always have an advantage.

AA has added how many NYC flights while DL and CO have added dozens? AA's pilots pass up how many opportunities to fly 777s to Asia while CO and DL are stretching their much smaller 777 fleets (which together don't
add up to as many 777s as AA has) to serve more cities in Asia than AA does.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 11):
Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 10):

you simply don't want to admit that AA has some serious competition.

I've never said it wasn't serious compeition. I have said it does not threaten AA's dominant pressence.

because AA has always been the king of the hill and they just won't fall off - sort of like the divine right of kings or something?

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 12):
It figures that American will go out and tap smaller cities once the bilateral allows for it.

As will CO and DL.

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 12):
That is because the bilateral in place favors smaller/incumbent carriers to established carriers.

no they don't. AA has added frequencies to S. America at the same time CO and DL have. CO and DL have both succeeded in extracting some of UA's unused authority by virtue of a DOT decision - not because the treaties favor new entrants.

Besides, Chile and the US have open skies.

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 12):
You'd be hard pressed to find another market where a US carrier is that big.

actually no. AA, CO, and DL combined do not have as much market share as NW does to Asia, which is itself surpassed to Asia by UA. DL is significantly larger to Europe than any other US airline and their lead is growing - right now DL is something like 25% larger to Europe than any other carrier - and that is before this summer's expansion.

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 12):
Again, new carriers and a restrictive bilateral.

which we've shown aren 't really valid reasons at all.

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 12):
American has a plethora of 757s that could be deployed to South America. American has rights to 787s AND it could double the number of flights it offered (assuming a relaxation of bilaterals) to deep south america by simply turning aircraft around and operating daylight return and departures, without adding a single new aircraft. Delta and Continental would be unable to offer such a flight without ungodly departure / arrival times because of the location of their hubs.

AA COULD do alot of things but AA HASN'T, now have they? You tell me why since you seem to be so in tune with what AA is doing.

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 12):
DL has 777LRs which won't be used to Latin America. Northwest has no reason to serve South America, I don't know why you included them in the tally.

there was nothing said that AA would use the 787s exclusively for Latin America either and since they have plenty of 757s at their disposal, why would they use an 8000 mile capable airplane to fly for 8 hrs and then sit on the ground for the day in S. America. AA needs to use 787s to expand into Asia, something it hasn't been able to do even with one of the world's largest 777 fleets.

And BTW, CO and DL also have most favored nation (or customer) status with Boeing and can get those 787s just as fast and for the same price as AA can.  Smile

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 12):
American also operates a three class 777, Delta operates a two class 767.

And AA operates 2 class 767s while UA operates the same plane with 3 classes. Which is about as relevant to the discussion as it is to know that the Pope doesn't eat margarine.
 
commavia
Posts: 9787
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: US Service To CNF?

Sun Apr 08, 2007 1:10 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 15):
AA, CO, and DL combined do not have as much market share as NW does to Asia

And AA carries more passengers to Latin America than Continental, Delta and United combined. Overall, AA carries 43.3% of U.S.-Latin America passengers, while Northwest carries 44.1% of U.S.-Asia passengers.
 
worldtraveler
Posts: 3417
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2003 6:18 am

RE: US Service To CNF?

Sun Apr 08, 2007 1:19 am

which equates to a fairly significant lead for AA but certainly not the insurmountable dominance that you seem to think that AA has in Latin America.

You still have not countered that DL operates the 2nd largest hub of any airline to Latin America from ATL and it is doing it from a non-traditional Latin American gateway. Given that DL already has grown to being AA's largest competitor to S. America and has done it by using a non-traditional gateway, don't you think that there is at least some possibility that DL will continue to grow there, esp. given that they have focused on JFK and LAX as Latin American gateways from grwoth and has thrown in the possibility of using FLL as a Latin American gateway. AA already is the dominant carrier in the largest Latin America gateways which means they will find it alot harder to grow Latin America.

I respect what AA is but I sure would feel a lot more comfortable about their future if they would figure out how to get their employees engaged again and start growing their airline.
 
elmothehobo
Posts: 967
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2006 11:10 am

RE: US Service To CNF?

Sun Apr 08, 2007 1:26 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 15):
right now DL is something like 25% larger to Europe than any other carrier - and that is before this summer's expansion.

That is if you aren't including European carriers. DL isn't much bigger than BA, they are 15% bigger than AA and 25% bigger than Continental.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 15):
And AA operates 2 class 767s while UA operates the same plane with 3 classes. Which is about as relevant to the discussion as it is to know that the Pope doesn't eat margarine.

You took my statement out of context. AA flies 777s on JFK-GRU, DL flies 767-300s. American clearly has a capacity and yield advantage on the route.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 15):
As will CO and DL.

(In reference to serving secondary brazilian destinations). Yes, they will. American will serve far more and with more capacity though.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 15):
Besides, Chile and the US have open skies.

They do, but Chile-USA isn't as big a market as the Brazilian-US or Argentine-US market.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 15):
actually no. AA, CO, and DL combined do not have as much market share as NW does to Asia, which is itself surpassed to Asia by UA.

last I checked, UA was biggest, and NW wasn't far behind, not to mention far more competition from Asian carriers, while in South America, competition is far more limited.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 24596
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: US Service To CNF?

Sun Apr 08, 2007 3:01 am

I love how WorldTraveler is consistently shown that some of his facts are wrong, only for him to ignore them and make up more pointless facts.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 15):
AA COULD do alot of things but AA HASN'T, now have they? You tell me why since you seem to be so in tune with what AA is doing.

I don't think there is any dispute there. American AIrlines has been lazy and far too conservative with expansion, and I have probably trashed AA for it more than anybody here. However, that has slowly started to change. Incase you forgot, AA pushed foward 737-800 deliveries last week, confirmed they will be taking some 787s, and will probably pop up with a few more surprises soon.
a.
 
worldtraveler
Posts: 3417
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2003 6:18 am

RE: US Service To CNF?

Sun Apr 08, 2007 3:46 am

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 18):
American clearly has a capacity and yield advantage on the route.

capacity, yes. yield, not necessarily. A FC cabin does not in itself necessarily translate into higher yield. It adds costs and complexity. AA decided (correctly IMHO) that the 763 is too small of a plane to have 3 classes on but they still maintain 3 class service on their 777s. Does that mean that the yield on their 763 routes is lower? Hardly. Nor do is it mean that AA has a yield advantage - smaller aircraft typically generate higher yields. I haven't seen DOT stats for JFK-GRU since it is fairly new for DL, but I would expect that AA has an advantage because of their incumbent status which does translate into more repeat customers (which generate higher yields) than because AA has a 3 cabin aircrafton the route. Granted, those loyal customers may well fly in FC but there are alot of them that are using some sort of upgrades to get there.

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 18):
Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 15):
actually no. AA, CO, and DL combined do not have as much market share as NW does to Asia, which is itself surpassed to Asia by UA.

last I checked, UA was biggest, and NW wasn't far behind,



reread what I wrote... it amazes me how quickly people will try to argue a point when there is nothing to argue if what has been written is simply read.

there is no distortion of any facts, MAH. You and your contingent simply want to assert that AA is at the top of the hill in Latin America and is therefore untouchable. I assert to you that whoever is at the top of the heap is the one that is most vulnerable (in all facets of life). AA has not helped itself by growing very little while CO and DL have been growing their int'l route systems very aggressively.

And you still have yet to counter that DL now has the 2nd largest gateway to Latin America from ATL, a non-traditional Latin America gateway that is surpassed only by AA at MIA (read that English carefully before firing off a hasty response).

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 19):
American AIrlines has been lazy and far too conservative with expansion

something we can both agree on.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 19):
AA pushed foward 737-800 deliveries last week

which are slated to be used as MD80 replacements according to AA.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 19):
confirmed they will be taking some 787s

again, I'm glad but CO and NW already have 787s confirmed for delivery while DL has 777LRs and is widely expected to be expanding their order to include even more 777s as well as 787s.

Nonetheless, I'm glad AA is waking up. Apparently their mgmt does realize they are vulnerable if they sit still and don't grow, even if people here refuse to acknowledge it.
 
teixeim
Posts: 128
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:49 am

RE: US Service To CNF?

Sun Apr 08, 2007 4:05 am

I am surprised that CNF does not have more (any?) service to U.S. (or simply, any, non Brasil) destinations considering it is the capital of Minas Gerais state (same size as all of France) and is the 3rd largest Brazilian city. Even though CNF is somewhat of a white elephant airport considering its distance from city center, it could be a great connecting hub airport within Brazil.

My favorite part about CNF is the open air rooftop observation deck. My least favorites are the inconvenient distance from town and the fact there is only one runway.

Belo Horizonte is a manufacturing powerhouse city (autos, steel, etc.) - it would be interesting to see what the executive jet traffic numbers are.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 24596
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: US Service To CNF?

Sun Apr 08, 2007 4:52 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 20):
You and your contingent simply want to assert that AA is at the top of the hill in Latin America and is therefore untouchable. I assert to you that whoever is at the top of the heap is the one that is most vulnerable (in all facets of life). AA has not helped itself by growing very little while CO and DL have been growing their int'l route systems very aggressively.

And you seem to think that Delta will win and be first at everything. AA pretty much is untouchable at the top of Latin America. It will be that way for a long, long time. I don't see why you seem to think they are so vulnerable, they aren't.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 20):
And you still have yet to counter that DL now has the 2nd largest gateway to Latin America from ATL, a non-traditional Latin America gateway that is surpassed only by AA at MIA

South American gateway, yes. Latin American gateway? No. Houston is. Then Atlanta. I never disputed that Atlanta is the third largest US-Latin American gateway. I think that fact is pretty clear.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 20):
which are slated to be used as MD80 replacements according to AA.

In the long-term, yes. Not in the short-term. There will be overlap. And another order is coming that will likely involve another member of the 737 family with more range.
a.
 
worldtraveler
Posts: 3417
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2003 6:18 am

RE: US Service To CNF?

Sun Apr 08, 2007 7:54 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 22):
Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 20):
which are slated to be used as MD80 replacements according to AA.

In the long-term, yes. Not in the short-term.

I suggest you read AA's press release. It says nothing about AA using the new 738s to increase capacity and says repeatedly that the a/c are being ordered for MD80 replacement. You might check w/ AA Corp Comm (phone number provided) if you think there is an error in their press release.

Press Release Source: American Airlines, Inc.


American Airlines Accelerates 737 Deliveries
Wednesday March 28, 10:09 am ET
Company to Begin Pulling Forward Deliveries of Boeing 737-800 Aircraft, With First Deliveries Expected in Early 2009
American Sets Goal to Improve Fleet Fuel Efficiency By More Than 20 Percent By 2020


FORT WORTH, Texas, March 28 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- American Airlines, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR - News), today said that it has accelerated its fleet renewal plan by beginning the replacement process for a portion of its MD-80 fleet. The Company said that the decision also provides it with substantial fleet flexibility in the future.

remainder here

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070328/daw018.html?.v=96

I never said DL will dominate Latin America. You are the one here, however, that has repeatedly said

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 22):
AA pretty much is untouchable at the top of Latin America. It will be that way for a long, long time.

Thankfully AA's strategists don't defer to your judgment because NO company worth its salt - and AA certainly is - will be so brazen as to think they are untouchable in any market segment. Wanna look at AA's share of the NYC transcon market now vs. five years ago?

And the point still remains that DL built ATL into a powerful Latin America gateway despite ATL is not a traditional gateway to Latin America. DL's LA growth is all focused on NYC, LAX, and potentially FLL - all very large LA markets where DL should easily get a decent size share of the market. And where does AA grow since its hubs all have fairly substantial Latin American ops?

DL and CO ARE aggressively growing and the fact that you and I only differ in whether it's a DL or CO hub that is #2 in Latin or South America (which yields a different answer) is the 2nd largest hub behind AA's MIA shows that MIA is not as invincible as you think.

I'm sorry that you can't acknowledge that someone else is growing and succeeding but the facts speak very loudly that that is exactly what is happening..
 
MAH4546
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Sun Apr 08, 2007 11:16 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 23):
I suggest you read AA's press release. It says nothing about AA using the new 738s to increase capacity and says repeatedly that the a/c are being ordered for MD80 replacement. You might check w/ AA Corp Comm (phone number provided) if you think there is an error in their press release.

I think you should read me where it directly mentions that there will be 1:1 replacement for the S80s. It doesn't. There will, with most certainty, be overlap. The 738s will be coming in faster than the S80s will be leaving. Sure, it won't be huge growth, but there will be some. In fact, given AA's likely capacity needs in 2009, I wouldn't be surprised if no S80s are initially replaced.

I claim that AA is untouchable from the top. I stand by that claim, and I will continue to claim it. I never said others will not eat into marketshare or that other airlines won't make significant inroads into the market. They will. I have said AA will remain very comfortable at the top of the market, by a good margin. They will.

Funny how you always ignore the fact that Delta is performing poorly in smaller Latin American markets, particularly in Central America. It's no wonder they are going for routes from FLL, LAX, and JFK (and word around MIA employees is that Delta might indeed do some internaitonal flying from MIA come December), because they've pretty much tapped Atlanta out, with a handful of potential, but risky, markets to go to.

[Edited 2007-04-08 04:24:47]
a.
 
2travel2know
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Mon Apr 09, 2007 4:12 am

Quoting Teixeim (Reply 21):
I am surprised that CNF does not have more (any?) service to U.S. (or simply, any, non Brasil) destinations considering it is the capital of Minas Gerais state (same size as all of France) and is the 3rd largest Brazilian city. Even though CNF is somewhat of a white elephant airport considering its distance from city center, it could be a great connecting hub airport within Brazil.

I really doubt about U.S. airlines flying non-stop to CNF in the next 2 years, specially since it's one of those Brazilian destinations the Brazilian government isn't that much interested to give frequencies outside the bilateral. Maybe if one of the 3 major ones (AA, CO or DL) get a good custumer contract from CNF area, I could see some tag-ons from either GRU or GIG.
Right now CNF looks like the kind of destination CO's partly owned CM might be intested flying their B737-700 to, but, since CNF is squeezed between GIG/GRU (both get CM and CO now) and BSB, IMHO, maybe CM would prefer BSB instead of CNF, because the Business class passengers they could get from BSB. Becasue the demand for flights between CM destiantions and Brazil, I do believe both BSB and CNF individually could support a PTY flight (maybe not daily to start) even if the Brazilians require all passenger flying via PTY a Yellowfever Vaccine certificate.
I don't work for COPA Airlines!
 
MAH4546
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Mon Apr 09, 2007 6:00 am

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 25):
I really doubt about U.S. airlines flying non-stop to CNF in the next 2 years, specially since it's one of those Brazilian destinations the Brazilian government isn't that much interested to give frequencies outside the bilateral.

You might see American Airlines non-stop to Miami. They have been looking at it, but it is not a priority. They rather go to Salvador or Recife.

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 25):
I do believe both BSB and CNF individually could support a PTY flight

Considering the lackluster performance of their Manaus route, I don't think that Belo Horizonte is something Copa will be looking into anytime soon.
a.
 
worldtraveler
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Mon Apr 09, 2007 6:09 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 24):
There will, with most certainty, be overlap.

but it is pure conjecture for you to assume that... the press release clearly says the aircraft are for replacement. Because the 738 carries more pax than the S80, there will be some growth; and the 738's greater range and better dispatch reliability could result in heavier scheduling which would increase capacity. but that is all conjecture. Until AA releases its capacity guidance (which all publicly traded airlines do), we have to read AA's press release for what it says - the 738s are replacement aircraft.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 24):
Funny how you always ignore the fact that Delta is performing poorly in smaller Latin American markets, particularly in Central America.

maybe because there is no basis for it other than your year old news. has it occurred to you that perhaps DL is doing quite well on its Latin routes?

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 24):
I claim that AA is untouchable from the top. I stand by that claim,

then don't accuse anyone else of basless emotion when you are unwilling to consider the facts when you talk about AA.
 
2travel2know
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Mon Apr 09, 2007 10:10 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 26):
Considering the lackluster performance of their Manaus route, I don't think that Belo Horizonte is something Copa will be looking into anytime soon.

To compare CM to MAO with a possible CM to CNF- Brazil's 3rd largest city? Moreover, nowadays, CM MAO has to compete with JJ MAO-MIA non-stop, which doesn't require Yellowfever Vaccination certificate.. go figure..
I don't work for COPA Airlines!
 
LipeGIG
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Mon Apr 09, 2007 11:59 am

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 28):
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 26):
Considering the lackluster performance of their Manaus route, I don't think that Belo Horizonte is something Copa will be looking into anytime soon.

To compare CM to MAO with a possible CM to CNF- Brazil's 3rd largest city? Moreover, nowadays, CM MAO has to compete with JJ MAO-MIA non-stop, which doesn't require Yellowfever Vaccination certificate.. go figure..

CM is facing two main problems in MAO, in my opinion:

1- The two better markets now have competition: RG nowadays fly MAO-BOG daily non-stop with 733 and JJ fly MAO-MIA with their A32A. Also, from BOG, is easy and quick to reach CCS.

2- An economic downturn in MAO. Due to the strong Brazilian Real rate (closer to R$ 2 = US$ 1) is now not so good for the electronic and durable goods industries in Manaus to export some articles that a year ago keep a reasonable profit margin and also competition from China and other markets is still growing. Cargo numbers drop around 15% this year.

I agree with Mark concerning to CNF because it will be always easy to fly CNF-US or Latin America thru Rio or São Paulo than CNF-PTY-XXX. You can attract some low yield traffic, but Belo Horizonte and the state of Minas Gerais keep a strong base of European and Japanese Investments, but not from US or Latin America.

Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
tonytifao
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Mon Apr 09, 2007 1:10 pm

A.net friends,

Do you think UA, AA, DL or CO could use a "tag-ons"? There should be enough cargo and passengers for a 763?
 
LipeGIG
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Mon Apr 09, 2007 1:16 pm

Quoting Tonytifao (Reply 30):
Do you think UA, AA, DL or CO could use a "tag-ons"? There should be enough cargo and passengers for a 763?

Yes Tony, at least for one flight i entirely sure there are demand for a 763 as a tag-on. I heard rumors this weekend about a revision on the US-Brazil bilateral, lets see if it's gonna happen.

Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
tonytifao
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Mon Apr 09, 2007 1:28 pm

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 31):
Yes Tony, at least for one flight i entirely sure there are demand for a 763 as a tag-on. I heard rumors this weekend about a revision on the US-Brazil bilateral, lets see if it's gonna happen.

Felipe, some airlines already have the right to tag-on to CNF, correct?
 
tonytifao
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Mon Apr 09, 2007 1:30 pm

One more question: Do you think Delta is looking for a partner in Brazil to help them connect passengers to other cities other than GRU and GIG?
 
LipeGIG
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Mon Apr 09, 2007 1:49 pm

Quoting Tonytifao (Reply 32):
Felipe, some airlines already have the right to tag-on to CNF, correct?

Yes, the current bilateral allows this Tony.

Quoting Tonytifao (Reply 33):
One more question: Do you think Delta is looking for a partner in Brazil to help them connect passengers to other cities other than GRU and GIG?

Yes, DL IMO is still looking for a partner to connect their pax, and it could be Gol (because Gol already serves CO and CM)

If we think about to be different, DL could try a tag-on their GRU-JFK service to CNF. They could get several pax from Minas Gerais, allowing them to use GRU in order to get the ATL service also.

Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
md90fan
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Tue Apr 10, 2007 12:28 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 14):

I haven't seen Delta try Belo Horizonte, or Porto Alegre, or Montevideo, or Asuncion, or La Paz, or Santa Cruz de La Sierra, or Cali, or Medellin, or Maracaibo in the Last 10 years. And, in virtually every single city that both airlines serve in Latin America, with perhaps 1 or 2 exceptions, Delta's presence is a fraction of AA's. Sorry, but that's just reality.

Exactly, and if Delta is having trouble with destinations such as (traditional AA strongholds) Belize City, Kingston,Managua,Merida and San Pedro Sula (Which aren't exactly your fun and sun destinations either) I don't see how you guys think they will pose a further thread to AA strongholds in South America.

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worldtraveler
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Tue Apr 10, 2007 10:18 am

Quoting MD90fan (Reply 35):
Exactly, and if Delta is having trouble with destinations such as (traditional AA strongholds) Belize City, Kingston,Managua,Merida and San Pedro Sula (Which aren't exactly your fun and sun destinations either) I don't see how you guys think they will pose a further thread to AA strongholds in South America.

be careful about assuming what DL is struggling with. ... some of this info popped up over a year ago when these markets were fairly new. PTP and FDF shows that DL will cancel markets that don't work. The ones you mentioned have not been cxld.
 
MAH4546
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Tue Apr 10, 2007 10:24 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 36):

be careful about assuming what DL is struggling with. ... some of this info popped up over a year ago when these markets were fairly new. PTP and FDF shows that DL will cancel markets that don't work. The ones you mentioned have not been cxld.

Many of the markets are still struggling, espeically Merida and Kingston. The fact they are still there shows that Delta is committed to making them work, something that I wish other airlines would learn to do. It can take a good 2-3 years to get a stronghold in a market, especially in Latin America, and Delta is willing to wait. American Airlines, for example, will leave a market (i.e. Nagoya and Osaka) if the results aren't shown within a year.
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ejmmsu
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Tue Apr 10, 2007 10:27 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 37):
Many of the markets are still struggling, espeically Merida

I had to basically cancel an award ticket to MID this last january because DL suspended ATL-MID, and there weren't any seats available on CO on my dates. They tried to get me seats on AM to MIA, and MIA-CVG-GSO to get me home.. but that fell through. Quite a bummer I had to cancel that vacation.
"If the facts do not conform to the theory, they will have to be disposed of"
 
md90fan
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Tue Apr 10, 2007 3:21 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 36):
be careful about assuming what DL is struggling with. ... some of this info popped up over a year ago when these markets were fairly new. PTP and FDF shows that DL will cancel markets that don't work. The ones you mentioned have not been cxld.

If loads mean anything, most of the aforementioned destinations have been downgraded to 70 seaters and/or have been operating at reduced frequencies.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 37):
Kingston

How is the Shuttle America E-170 coping on the route?
http://www.devanwells.blogspot.com/
 
MAH4546
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Tue Apr 10, 2007 3:35 pm

Quoting MD90fan (Reply 39):
How is the Shuttle America E-170 coping on the route?

It is currently 4x weekly M88 service. I think the E70 might be what can end this route's struggles, but we'll have to see. The switch happens this summer. 6x E70/1x M88.
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md90fan
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Tue Apr 10, 2007 3:51 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 40):
It is currently 4x weekly M88 service. I think the E70 might be what can end this route's struggles, but we'll have to see. The switch happens this summer. 6x E70/1x M88.

The E-170 seems to be the right sized aircraft for many of the Caribbean routes, from Delta's Atlanta hub. It would be nice to have them in The Bahamas in some way.

They should get more and bring them to LAX instead of the dreaded CRJ-200s I'm starting to see everytime now  boggled 
http://www.devanwells.blogspot.com/
 
MAH4546
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Tue Apr 10, 2007 4:09 pm

Quoting MD90fan (Reply 41):

The E-170 seems to be the right sized aircraft for many of the Caribbean routes, from Delta's Atlanta hub. It would be nice to have them in The Bahamas in some way.

They will be used on ATL-PUJ and ATL-POP soon, as well. ATL-PUJ most definitely just for the off-season, but ATL-POP is another slow performer, and I think the E70 is good for it year-round. A daily 738 is too much capacity for what is still a niche market.
a.
 
md90fan
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Tue Apr 10, 2007 4:15 pm

My Mom has been on ATL-POP numerous times, and she says its full.

Even though it is one of the cheapest resorts in all of the Caribbean it still has to mature and the daily 738 is too much for that market. So a 738 flying a sked. similar to BZE would be appropriate.

I think NK would do good there, along with FPO.

[Edited 2007-04-10 09:25:10]
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incitatus
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Tue Apr 10, 2007 11:14 pm

In the long run I expect Delta to serve many secondary cities in Brazil. It goes as follows: Delta has difficulty competing in major international cities. Look at their presence in the largest markets outside of the US: London, Tokyo and Paris. It is not #1 in any of them, not even in Paris where it codeshares with Air France. So Delta goes searching for markets where there is little competition from other US based airlines, such as Kyiv, Budapest and Accra. Delta will never be #1 in Rio or Sao Paulo, but I expect it to serve the likes of Cuiaba' and Aracaju.  Silly

I think American will eventually return to CNF as the immigrant community from Minas in the metro areas of Miami, New York / New Jersey and Boston is very large.
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positiverate
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Wed Apr 11, 2007 12:00 am

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 44):
Look at their presence in the largest markets outside of the US: London, Tokyo and Paris. It is not #1 in any of them, not even in Paris where it codeshares with Air France.

It also stands to reason that no US based carrier will be "#1" in any foreign capital market, especially when there are flag carriers for those nations who have hubs in the capitals.
 
tonytifao
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Wed Apr 11, 2007 5:01 am

How about TAM or Varig (now bought by GOL) doing CNF-MIA?
 
LipeGIG
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Wed Apr 11, 2007 5:27 am

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 44):
Delta will never be #1 in Rio or Sao Paulo, but I expect it to serve the likes of Cuiaba' and Aracaju.

Delta could be #1 in Rio if they want to be. Agree that it's impossible in São Paulo because of TAM and AA.

Quoting Positiverate (Reply 45):
It also stands to reason that no US based carrier will be "#1" in any foreign capital market, especially when there are flag carriers for those nations who have hubs in the capitals.

Don't forget AA on GRU market ! They are the leader with 5 daily flights (sometimes even 6 daily) to MIA, DFW and JFK. JJ is the second with 4 daily flights (including one weekly stop in SSA). AA is also stronger in EZE.

Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
worldtraveler
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Wed Apr 11, 2007 5:32 am

At the least, you have to consider the alliance partners when looking an airline’s presence in a country. DL has flights throughout Germany despite it not being the home of an alliance partner.


DL’s network strategy is NOT to provide seats to its alliance partner’s hub as evidenced by its own extensive network beyond CDG. However, DL does very well in Italy where it garners a large percentage of local traffic.

You can’t compare what DL has in London to other airlines because the market is so restricted and distorted.

As for secondary cities in Brazil, the market is just now opening. We will see many new routes in the next 5-10 years. I expect AA and DL will account for most of the US airline growth. The only thing that is keeping the process from moving forward is the Brazilian gov’ts desire to make sure its airlines are prepared to develop the market as well.
 
MAH4546
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RE: US Service To CNF?

Wed Apr 11, 2007 5:53 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 48):
The only thing that is keeping the process from moving forward is the Brazilian gov�ts desire to make sure its airlines are prepared to develop the market as well.

TAM already is prepared with weekly MIA-SSA and daily MIA-MAO-BEL-FOR service. This summer, TAM will operate scheduled service from Miami non-stop to Recife, Fortaleza, Natal, and Palameres. They are planning on starting a daily flight between Rio de Janeiro and Miami that will stop in various Northeast cities depending on the day of the week. It will hopefully launch not long after Miami-Rio de Janeiro launches (MIA-GIG starts in December).

With GOL's purchase of Varig, they will be in a much better situation to better exploit the market too, but I believe they will concentrate on Sao Paulo.

Hopefully these advancements will have ANAC speed up the process of opening more frequencies to US carriers.
a.