jimyvr
Posts: 1597
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 1:08 pm

ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 2:57 am

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...-long-haul-fleet-within-three.html

ANA is on the path to phase out all 747-400s within 3 years. 777-300ER is currently flying routes operated by 744, Paris and Frankfurt will be the last 2 long-haul cities to get 77W. London will see 77W from 24MAY on alternating days but to be daily by 2007/08 Winter timetable

Quote:
ANA executive vice-president international relations Katsuhiko Kitabayashi says all the domestic 747-400s will also eventually be replaced with smaller aircraft, although a final retirement date has not yet been set. "We prefer frequency rather than capacity," he says, adding ANA is looking to sell its remaining 747-400s "as soon as possible".

Kitabayashi does not see a need for domestic 747s after a fourth runway opens up at Tokyo's Haneda airport in 2010. The new runway will give carriers extra slots to increase frequencies on domestic routes and to launch international services to other Asian countries.
1000 - 01MAR07 | http://airlineroute.blogspot.com/
 
CX747
Posts: 5579
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:54 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 3:44 am

Oasis has been desperately looking for 747-400s so it wouldn't surprise me to see them snap up as many ex-ANA 744s as possible.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
flysherwood
Posts: 881
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:58 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 3:55 am

So much for people on A.net who are convinced that ANA "...will see the light..." of buying an A380 to keep up with the "big boys" of Europe and the Middle East! Of course, ANA does know its market pretty well.
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 15323
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 3:59 am

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 2):
So much for people on A.net who are convinced that ANA "...will see the light..." of buying an A380 to keep up with the "big boys" of Europe and the Middle East!

I think we'll see quite a few carriers ditching the 744 for slightly smaller twins, particularly NW, BA, and UA. Doesn't bode well for the 748 and particularly the A380.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
flydreamliner
Posts: 1928
Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2006 7:05 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 4:04 am

Most people don't want to sit in the airport 8 hours to catch the once daily connecting flight with 550 people to whatever other major city they are flying to. If you can have 2 smaller planes - cover the route twice as often, and avoid the hassle of 550 people at the gate area, why not do it? I can think of only a few airports on earth so tightly restricted on slots that VLA's like A380 and 748 are a necessity.

Moreover, smaller aircraft are more flexible, a 777/787/A330/A340/A350 sized aircraft can cover a thinner route, or put 2 or 3 of them on covering bigger routes. A380 can only be used on heavy density high traffic routes.
"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
 
WINGS
Posts: 2312
Joined: Tue May 31, 2005 1:36 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 4:21 am

Quoting Jimyvr (Thread starter):
ANA is on the path to phase out all 747-400s within 3 years. 777-300ER is currently flying routes operated by 744, Paris and Frankfurt will be the last 2 long-haul cities to get 77W. London will see 77W from 24MAY on alternating days but to be daily by 2007/08 Winter timetable

It will be interesting to observe their views about the A380/B748i in about 5 years. They may not see a need for them at this present time, although as soon as AF,LH,EK,QF,SQ,TK and others start to pressure the Japanese market they will have to react.

It's also interesting to note that many still think that all A380 operators will be opting for a 550 configuration. SQ and QF will be below 500. What do you think they will be doing with that extra space? Something that the A350X/B787/B777/A340 can not provide with out great loss of revenue.


Regards,
Wings
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
T773ER
Posts: 232
Joined: Tue Dec 05, 2006 7:13 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 4:28 am

Quoting Jimyvr (Thread starter):
ANA is looking to sell its remaining 747-400s "as soon as possible".

Maybe Boeing will buy one, in order to expand their fleet of LCF's and keep pace with a faster delivery schedule on the 787.
"Fixed fortifications are monuments to the stupidity of man."
 
atmx2000
Posts: 4301
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:24 pm

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 4:32 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 5):

It's also interesting to note that many still think that all A380 operators will be opting for a 550 configuration. SQ and QF will be below 500. What do you think they will be doing with that extra space? Something that the A350X/B787/B777/A340 can not provide with out great loss of revenue.

A great loss of non premium revenue, which may not be much of a loss at all. If airlines thought there was enough price insensitive demand to dedicate more space to high yielding premium seats, they would do so even if it significantly reduced economy seating.

By the way, is there a list of airlines planning to fly A380s to Japan?
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
DfwRevolution
Posts: 8588
Joined: Sat Jan 09, 2010 7:31 pm

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 4:33 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 5):
What do you think they will be doing with that extra space?

Nothing secretive: just greater proportions of premium seating, nothing smaller aircraft can't also accommodate

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 3):
I think we'll see quite a few carriers ditching the 744 for slightly smaller twins, particularly NW, BA, and UA. Doesn't bode well for the 748 and particularly the A380.

BA will opperate the 747-8 or A380 (or both). There isn't much doubt about that. They probably won't opperate as many large aircraft in the future relative to their current fleet of 57 744, but the likelihood of BA following ANA in moving entirely to "smaller" aircraft like the 773ER is practically zero.

A fleet of 10-15 A380 or 30-40 747-8 is still a distinct possibility at BA.

Quoting Jimyvr (Thread starter):
ANA is on the path to phase out all 747-400s within 3 years.

As the article mentions, the retirement date for the domestic 747-400D isn't established yet so there will still be 747 in ANA's fleet past 2010. I would expect a 787-3 add-on order to follow once the retirement plans for the 744D are known.
 
NYC777
Posts: 5076
Joined: Wed Jun 09, 2004 3:00 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 4:34 am

Quoting T773ER (Reply 6):
Maybe Boeing will buy one, in order to expand their fleet of LCF's and keep pace with a faster delivery schedule on the 787.

Wouldn't surprise me. They're alrady working on the 3rd which should be finished soon and will start mods on the fourth shortly. I think Boeing is planning to procure about 2 more 744s to convert into Dreamlifters.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
YLWbased
Posts: 842
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 6:09 pm

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 4:36 am

Quoting CX747 (Reply 1):
Oasis has been desperately looking for 747-400s so it wouldn't surprise me to see them snap up as many ex-ANA 744s as possible.

Oasis already bought 3 of ANA's 744, to be deliver this month, may and later this year.

edited for typo.

[Edited 2007-04-10 21:36:49]
Hong Kong is not China. Not better or worse, just different.
 
User avatar
Richard28
Posts: 1622
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 5:42 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 4:39 am

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 4):
If you can have 2 smaller planes - cover the route twice as often, and avoid the hassle of 550 people at the gate area, why not do it?

cost of extra set of landing slots, an extra aircraft needed for the route, an extra set of pilots, possibly more cabin crew. this could reduce profit margins.

remember for lots of routes frequency is irrlevant. for many long haul routes many flights leave within a very narrow flight window.
 
flydreamliner
Posts: 1928
Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2006 7:05 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 4:40 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 5):

It's also interesting to note that many still think that all A380 operators will be opting for a 550 configuration. SQ and QF will be below 500. What do you think they will be doing with that extra space? Something that the A350X/B787/B777/A340 can not provide with out great loss of revenue.

I see it this way, if EK can put 380 happy people on its 773ER and SQ is putting only 100 more in its A380, how can the A380 be achieving competitive CASM. The only thing that makes A380 CASM competitive is its incredible passenger capacity...
"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
 
by738
Posts: 2441
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2000 7:59 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 4:45 am

Did Excel/ Travel CIty not buy some ANA 744s?
 
jimyvr
Posts: 1597
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 1:08 pm

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 6:54 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 3):
Doesn't bode well for the 748 and particularly the A380.

747-8 wasn't and never considered. A380 popping up and off several times

Quoting WINGS (Reply 5):
as soon as AF,LH,EK,QF,SQ,TK and others start to pressure the Japanese market they will have to react.

ANA has been carefully with yield management, unless they're confident to fill like 200 business class/first class seats on A380 on all flights, then the chances is pretty slim.
1000 - 01MAR07 | http://airlineroute.blogspot.com/
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 15323
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 6:57 am

Quoting Jimyvr (Reply 14):
747-8 wasn't and never considered.

???

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 8):
BA will opperate the 747-8 or A380 (or both). There isn't much doubt about that

I'm not convinced about that; it depends how much they value Y traffic.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
flysherwood
Posts: 881
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:58 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 6:58 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 5):
It will be interesting to observe their views about the A380/B748i in about 5 years. They may not see a need for them at this present time, although as soon as AF,LH,EK,QF,SQ,TK and others start to pressure the Japanese market they will have to react.

Why? What pressure are they going to feel from those airlines operating the A380. Remember, Japanese companies tend to think 10-15 years down the road when they make a decision. You may find that those airlines you mentioned will start feeling the pressure of having to constantly fill those behemoths. All it takes is one SARS incident except with a different disease even to make those things a giant drain hole on the finances. One event like a 9/11 could break an EK who bought 43 of those things. Surely you are not implying that they will be pressured by something as idiotic as some perceived prestige of the Whalejet! Because I can assure you, they won't.  Yeah sure

There are bunch of Airbus afficionados who claim that the luxurious extras that the A380 can accomodate will determine its fate. I would say that those extras will go away very quickly if and when we get sustained prices of $70.00/bbl of crude and they need the extra revenue that space could bring by way of seats.
 
trex8
Posts: 4618
Joined: Sat Nov 02, 2002 9:04 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 7:14 am

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 12):
I see it this way, if EK can put 380 happy people on its 773ER

at 10 across in Y!
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 7:23 am

Quoting Jimyvr (Thread starter):
ANA is on the path to phase out all 747-400s within 3 years. 777-300ER is currently flying routes operated by 744, Paris and Frankfurt will be the last 2 long-haul cities to get 77W. London will see 77W from 24MAY on alternating days but to be daily by 2007/08 Winter timetable

Of course. The 747-400 is clearly too large for slot-restricted airports like NRT and LHR.
 
Iloveboeing
Posts: 339
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2005 11:02 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 7:43 am

I think this is a smart move by ANA. Swtiching to smaller, more fuel-efficient aircraft, will allow ANA to offer more frequencies, while lowering its fuel costs.
 
User avatar
fxramper
Posts: 5837
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2005 12:03 pm

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 7:56 am

Gosh, they only took delivery of ther newest -400 six years ago.

Those 787s in NH livery are going to look sweet!  airplane   yes 
 
andessmf
Posts: 5689
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2006 8:53 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 7:59 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 5):
It will be interesting to observe their views about the A380/B748i in about 5 years. They may not see a need for them at this present time, although as soon as AF,LH,EK,QF,SQ,TK and others start to pressure the Japanese market they will have to react.

Many airlines purchased 747s to compete with other 747 equipped airlines. Those who no longer needed them utilized smaller aircraft. This is why you no longer really see American 747s on transatlantic routes and even on some transpacific flights. The type of aircraft used is irrelevant on any particular flight, only the economics of using such aircraft.

Even in California, PSA attempted to use the L-1011 and the economy of scale for intra-California flights. This experiment failed and most flights within the state use only narrowbodies.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23203
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 9:18 am

Quoting Iloveboeing (Reply 19):
I think this is a smart move by ANA. Swtiching to smaller, more fuel-efficient aircraft, will allow ANA to offer more frequencies, while lowering its fuel costs.

They don't even need to offer additional frequencies, frankly, if the most profitable part of their demand curve doesn't require it. They just may not want to get into a "capacity war" with SQ, LH, EK, IT, QF, AF, KE, and all the other A388 operators flying into and out of NRT.

Instead, they'll just concentrate on carrying a couple hundred passengers a day at a stable, fat profit margin instead of a few thousand a day on razor-thin margins that only work when they do carry a few thousands folks.
 
highflyer9790
Posts: 1189
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:21 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 10:01 am

honestly, i didnt expect it this soon. Who are the tentative buyers?
121
 
behramjee
Posts: 4343
Joined: Sat Aug 02, 2003 4:56 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 11:39 am

how many long haul passenger model B 744s does ANA still have flying in its colors? Oasis, PIA, Air India, Virgin Blue might put them to good use.
 
DfwRevolution
Posts: 8588
Joined: Sat Jan 09, 2010 7:31 pm

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 11:43 am

Quoting Behramjee (Reply 24):
how many long haul passenger model B 744s does ANA still have flying in its colors?

Twelve

Quoting Behramjee (Reply 24):
Oasis, PIA, Air India, Virgin Blue might put them to good use.

Virgin Blue probably won't deviate from the 773ER, even though they are going to have to wait to get them.
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2002
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 11:47 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 5):

It will be interesting to observe their views about the A380/B748i in about 5 years. They may not see a need for them at this present time, although as soon as AF,LH,EK,QF,SQ,TK and others start to pressure the Japanese market they will have to react.

You know... I have seen all this logic before. Oh yes, it was Pan Am and TWA, who bought the 747 and started their spirals of doom when they could not simultaniously fill it and make a margin on each seat off (at least not without a CAB sanction route swap to eliminate all competition), and everyone else who copycated them and killed what little pricing control they had once the market deregulated.

ANA has learned that lesson. A.net has not.
 
Carpethead
Posts: 2566
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2004 8:15 pm

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 12:17 pm

Quoting Behramjee (Reply 24):
how many long haul passenger model B 744s does ANA still have flying in its colors?

Ten.
They really only need seven to fill its int'l schedule.
Of the remaining three, one flies usually domestic routes and two are, I suppose spares.
 
andessmf
Posts: 5689
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2006 8:53 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 12:31 pm

How times change.

I have a book from 1991 that states that ANA had 42 747-400s on order.
 
Carpethead
Posts: 2566
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2004 8:15 pm

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 5:25 pm

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 28):
I have a book from 1991 that states that ANA had 42 747-400s on order.

Some of those were probably options.
Still they did take 23 of them.
Darn the pesky 777s, if not the 744Ds would have replaced the remaining 747SRs.
 
QF744ER
Posts: 256
Joined: Mon Jun 21, 2004 7:59 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 6:47 pm

JA403A, JA404A and JA405A all for O8, these are the newest one in the ANA fleet.

JA8904, JA8905, JA8096, JA8097, JA401A and JA402A all for Air Atlanta and rumoured for freighter conversion.

This is old news it's been covered before.

I love the reading the speculation as to which airlines members of this forum think these B744 will end up. Why is it that everytime a B744 becomes availbale on the used marked somebody always happens to mention AI?? AI are already getting N106UA and N185UA...106 is in SIN being prepared for them now. They also have that ex SQ B744 N137GP that is sitting in the desert now also awaiting a F conversion slot.

And as already mentioned the 4th B744LCF is coming from MH...9M-MPA to be precise. There is also a 5th LCF on the way also, but I can't reveal the frame involved yet.
 
na
Posts: 9170
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 1999 3:52 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 6:51 pm

Quoting Iloveboeing (Reply 19):
I think this is a smart move by ANA. Swtiching to smaller, more fuel-efficient aircraft, will allow ANA to offer more frequencies, while lowering its fuel costs.

Rubbish.

More frequency = more airplanes = more accidents = more noise = more fuel consumption = more pollution = more crews to pay for = more expensive.

I don´t give a sh.. for this airline. They won´t be able to compete with LH or others when they fly 747-8Is or A380s to Tokio.
 
scouseflyer
Posts: 2165
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2006 7:02 pm

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 7:04 pm

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 12):
I see it this way, if EK can put 380 happy people on its 773ER and SQ is putting only 100 more in its A380, how can the A380 be achieving competitive CASM. The only thing that makes A380 CASM competitive is its incredible passenger capacity...

CASM isn't everything you know - those 480 pax on a SQ A380 will be paying massively more on average than the 380 squashed into a T7 - it's about how many of those seats you can fill.

A good comparison would be a Luxary limo taxi and a tuktuk - the cost per seat mile in the tuktuk would be lower but I bet the limo owner would earn a better profit as they will be charging a proportionally much higher price.
 
jfk777
Posts: 5861
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 9:39 pm

Seeing what is happening to JAL may be making ANA conservative for the moment. 773ER are fine airplanes and very well configured by ANA in four classes. ANA also flies many of the most competitve routes in the world. To CDG, LHR and FRA they have AF, LH and BA but also JAL all three and Virgin to LHR, consumers have no bad choice here. To the USA ANA really only owns NRT to IAD. TO LAX they have NW, UA, AA, JAL, Korean and Singapore. TO SFO its UA, NW and JAL. JFK has the some of the same suspects, AA & JAL. Then ORD it faces two hub heavies in UA and AA. Facing this shark tank I would rather have my well appointed 773ER flying profitably with 200 passengers then an A380 loosing money at current fuel prices. Any route structure linking your capitol with the three main cities in Europe and the five main American cities is a competitve nightmare, well handle by ANA.
 
Yellowstone
Posts: 2821
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:32 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 9:45 pm

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 32):
A good comparison would be a Luxary limo taxi and a tuktuk - the cost per seat mile in the tuktuk would be lower but I bet the limo owner would earn a better profit as they will be charging a proportionally much higher price.

Bad comparison. Taxis charge the same amount no matter how many people are actually in the car. And the difference in fare between the two is far greater than the difference in average fare on the two jetliners.
Hydrogen is an odorless, colorless gas which, given enough time, turns into people.
 
irobertson
Posts: 409
Joined: Thu Apr 13, 2006 11:35 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 9:54 pm

It baffles me as to why there's all this speculation that ANA's decision spells doom and gloom in the future for four-engined designs like the 747 and A380, when clearly this probably has more to do with the fact that most of Japan's airports are clamping down on four-engined aircraft because of noise restrictions. I'm thinking of Osaka right now. ANA would probably like to simplify things so they're not juggling where their twins and quads are going to based on restrictions. Personally, I don't think it makes a big difference in noise reduction, but with a country so cramped and pressed for space, even the smallest reduction is probably appreciated.

The rest of the world will continue to use four-engined aircraft for a long time yet (as Oasis and others are proving).
 
na
Posts: 9170
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 1999 3:52 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 9:58 pm

Quoting Irobertson (Reply 35):
when clearly this probably has more to do with the fact that most of Japan's airports are clamping down on four-engined aircraft because of noise restrictions. I'm thinking of Osaka right now

The A380 is quieter than any 777, and I expect the 747-8I to perform similarly.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23203
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 10:16 pm

Quoting Irobertson (Reply 35):
It baffles me as to why there's all this speculation that ANA's decision spells doom and gloom in the future for four-engined designs like the 747 and A380, when clearly this probably has more to do with the fact that most of Japan's airports are clamping down on four-engined aircraft because of noise restrictions.

Because NH's and JL's decision supports the views of both the pro-A388 and pro-787 crowd.

To the pro-A388 crowd, "all flight paths lead to LHR" so all airlines must have the A388 because they all must fly there and capacity restrictions will require the largest plane possible. So NH and JL not buying the A388 means they will be squeezed out of LHR and doomed to domestic shuttle service amongst the home islands.  angel 

To the pro-787 crowd, "LHR is irrelevant" in the New Order where 787s will offer direct international service from Surrey, Devon, and Cardiff and LHR will serve only the greater London metropolitan area. So NH and JL are just the first airlines to understand this and we will soon see NGO-CWL and FUK-PMEdevil 

I am, of course, being sarcastic, but alas, some others don't seem to be...
 
sparkingwave
Posts: 563
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 1:01 pm

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 11:29 pm

We are witnessing the official beginning of a new era - transpacific fragmentation. Just as transatlantic crossings were fragmented during the 1980s and 90s, so too, this trend is making its way westward.

You better get on a transpacific 747 while you can - these migrating birds will be fewer and farther between. It looks like the 777 and 787 will end up carving out the region.

SparkingWave ~~~
Flights to the moon and all major space stations. At Pan Am, the sky is no longer the limit!
 
User avatar
glideslope
Posts: 1423
Joined: Sun May 30, 2004 8:06 pm

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 11:39 pm

Quoting NA (Reply 31):
Rubbish.More frequency = more airplanes = more accidents = more noise = more fuel consumption = more pollution = more crews to pay for = more expensive.I don´t give a sh.. for this airline. They won´t be able to compete with LH or others when they fly 747-8Is or A380s to Tokio.

Your wrong. People want frequency, and direct flights. The Hub system is dying. The 350 will be A's future. Not the 380. Just wait until 500-600 people start waiting around airports to load on and off these monsters. They are going to get tired very quickly, and look to operators with greater frequency.

p.s. Work on anger dude.  

[Edited 2007-04-11 16:40:23]
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
User avatar
EK413
Posts: 4333
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2003 3:11 pm

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 11:43 pm

I've said it said it once before that the B747 days are numbered as a pax variant... Twins are the future of long-haul travel...

EK413
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
SkyyMaster
Posts: 1082
Joined: Sun Feb 11, 2007 7:34 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 11:45 pm

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 16):
Why? What pressure are they going to feel from those airlines operating the A380. Remember, Japanese companies tend to think 10-15 years down the road when they make a decision. You may find that those airlines you mentioned will start feeling the pressure of having to constantly fill those behemoths. All it takes is one SARS incident except with a different disease even to make those things a giant drain hole on the finances. One event like a 9/11 could break an EK who bought 43 of those things. Surely you are not implying that they will be pressured by something as idiotic as some perceived prestige of the Whalejet! Because I can assure you, they won't.

Thank you for repeating what I've said on at least a dozen other threads. As cyclical as the airlines industry is, another major downturn will reek havoc. (And there WILL be another, sooner rather than later; be it war, a SARS similar outbreak, or economic). EK may find alot of those "prestigious" Whalejets parked in the desert, just not at Jebel Ali awaiting pax. The trend for many years has been for airlines to downsize aircraft in favor of frequency. Both the 380 and 748 will be niche aircraft. To assume any airline comes close to an order like Emirate's is naive. They may look nice and may be an airlines "flagship", but if you can't put pax on them for whatever reason, it's not going to matter much.
 
cloudy
Posts: 1613
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2002 3:23 pm

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Wed Apr 11, 2007 11:49 pm

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 39):
Your wrong. People want frequency, and direct flights. The Hub system is dying

People want flights that are MORE direct, but that does not mean the end of the hub system. For international travelers, fragmentation will mostly mean having one connection rather than two. The vast majority of A350 and 787 flights will either take off or land (or both) at a hub, and will depend on connecting passengers to be profitable. Thats the way it is with North America - Europe now with the A330 and 767. The 787 and A350 will do the same thing in Asia - North America and
Asia - Europe.

As for Japan - does anyone know, based on sources, if 4-engined aircraft really are the problem in dealing with Japanese Airports? I would be surprised if that were the case. The 747-400 is one of the loudest western airliners still being made, from what I've heard....
 
jimyvr
Posts: 1597
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 1:08 pm

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:09 am

Quoting NA (Reply 31):
Quoting Iloveboeing (Reply 19):
I think this is a smart move by ANA. Swtiching to smaller, more fuel-efficient aircraft, will allow ANA to offer more frequencies, while lowering its fuel costs.

Rubbish.

More frequency = more airplanes = more accidents = more noise = more fuel consumption = more pollution = more crews to pay for = more expensive.

And your common theory is not rubbish? If everyone follows your theory I bet probably 50% of the carriers will close their doors down tomorrow.
1000 - 01MAR07 | http://airlineroute.blogspot.com/
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23203
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:52 am

Quoting Cloudy (Reply 42):
People want flights that are MORE direct, but that does not mean the end of the hub system.

 checkmark 

The dominance of hubs will continue to subside, but it will not disappear. If anything, the 787 and A350XWB will foster the creation of new hubs, though not the monolithic type we have become familiar with. Part of the issue, I believe, is that public transportation in many European and Asian countries is so good that taking a high-speed train to a central hub is nowhere near the slog it is in, say, North America. So the demand for heavy service from cities ~250km from a hub is not as strong.
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13772
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Thu Apr 12, 2007 1:05 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 5):
They may not see a need for them at this present time, although as soon as AF,LH,EK,QF,SQ,TK and others start to pressure the Japanese market they will have to react.

Hey, if this turns out to be true all over the world, if every carrier buys A380s because they see a few airlines have them, if the history of the 747 repeats itself, I'll be the first to buy you a beer.

But that history is strewn with airlines that bought the 747 just for that reason and choked on it.

As for pressure on the non-growing Japanese market? Who's flying A380s to Japan? Who plans to? EK to Kansai? SQ will as a stopover to the USA? Surely not QF, LH, AF or BA/VS.

AF "wastes" 3 slots at NRT on frequency, with an A332, 772 and 77W. Who knows, maybe they combine the first two into an A380, but I doubt it.

LH and NH both send a 744 on the FRA run, and codeshare the flights. NH isn't worried about putting the 77W on that route. Will partner LH scare them into buying A380s if LH puts an A380 on the route? Will NH have to buy the 748 if LH puts one of those on the route? Not likely...

Are NH and JA going to buy A380s to compete with 3 flights a day (1 on EK, 2 on SQ)? Come on man, that's just not going to happen...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23203
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Thu Apr 12, 2007 1:15 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 45):
Hey, if this turns out to be true all over the world, if every carrier buys A380s because they see a few airlines have them, if the history of the 747 repeats itself, I'll be the first to buy you a beer.

And I'll cover the chaser.  Smile
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Thu Apr 12, 2007 1:17 am

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 32):
CASM isn't everything you know - those 480 pax on a SQ A380 will be paying massively more on average than the 380 squashed into a T7 - it's about how many of those seats you can fill.

No. It's the other way around. Consider the price elasticity of demand. To sell more seats (e.g. 480) one has to offer them at a lower price than one wishing to sell a smaller number (e.g. 380).
 
YULWinterSkies
Posts: 1266
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 11:42 pm

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Thu Apr 12, 2007 1:24 am

Quoting FXramper (Reply 20):
Those 787s in NH livery are going to look sweet!

And yet another carrier will soon switch to the 2-engine-only boredom...
...until the need for the A380 comes, of course.  Wink

(When the day when flights are full at full frequency will come, they'll have to figure something out. This is how I see the A380 being successful. In the long term.)
When I doubt... go running!
 
Danny
Posts: 3714
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2002 3:44 am

RE: ANA To Phase Out All 747-400s In 3 Years

Thu Apr 12, 2007 1:26 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 47):
No. It's the other way around. Consider the price elasticity of demand. To sell more seats (e.g. 480) one has to offer them at a lower price than one wishing to sell a smaller number (e.g. 380).

Demand exists for a certain route not for a certain aircraft flying it. Serving that route with larger equipment does not have to mean lower prices. However, lower CASM will allow to charge less should the airline decide to do so to win the passengers.