AndyEastMids
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Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Thu Apr 12, 2007 7:26 pm

Whilst the debate about Emirates and the A350XWB/787 rumbles on http://www.airliners.net/discussions...neral_aviation/read.main/3353276/, I'm surprised no one's picked up on what Clark's now also saying about the A380...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...conews&tkr=EAD:FP&sid=aIcZoNE0nreY

Emirates is the biggest customer of Airbus's 555-seat A380 and has 45 of the planes on order. The airline will take delivery of the first one next year, 21 months behind schedule, because of manufacturing delays at Airbus.

''I think it's going to be a real world beater,'' Clark said. ''There's not going to be a lot that's going to touch it.
''
 
EI321
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Thu Apr 12, 2007 7:33 pm

Quoting AndyEastMids (Thread starter):
''There's not going to be a lot that's going to touch it.''

It depends in what context he is speaking, but its another nail in the coffin of the a-net the cancelation roumers.
 
Lumberton
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Thu Apr 12, 2007 7:41 pm

Sounds like EADS and EK have come to terms on compensation for the A380 delays.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
LifelinerOne
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Thu Apr 12, 2007 8:01 pm

Well, when you invest and order 43 A380's you are sounding better saying this than saying that the A380 is a crappy plane, I'm sorry we ever ordered it.

However, Mr. Clark is a somewhat loudmouth, so I think he's telling the truth (from his point of view). If the A380 was indeed a crappy plane he would have said it out loud and go on cancelling the order with a lot of show and bad press for Airbus.

Cheers!  wave 
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ComeAndGo
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Thu Apr 12, 2007 8:02 pm

Clark wants the A380-900. How can he talk badly about the A388 ?

Think about it, 850 passengers in economy. Backpacking Europe to Australia for $200.
 
WINGS
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Thu Apr 12, 2007 8:25 pm

Quoting AndyEastMids (Thread starter):
''I think it's going to be a real world beater,'' Clark said. ''There's not going to be a lot that's going to touch it.''

I seriously don't know what to say. Mr Clark has just been to much of a loud mouth these past few years.

If he thinks that the A380 will be a real world beater why is he bothering with the B748i? How will this vote of confidence result in upcoming A380 vs B748i orders?

Regards,
Wings
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
LifelinerOne
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Thu Apr 12, 2007 8:30 pm

Quoting WINGS (Reply 5):
If he thinks that the A380 will be a real world beater why is he bothering with the B748i

Well, maybe he used the B747-8i as a measure to secure a good compensation from Airbus, or maybe he needs a plan to fill the gap between the B777-300ER and the A380.

Cheers!  wave 
Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
 
EI321
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Thu Apr 12, 2007 8:30 pm

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 3):
Well, when you invest and order 43 A380's you are sounding better saying this than saying that the A380 is a crappy plane, I'm sorry we ever ordered it.

Still, Ive never heard him say that about the 777 or any other plane despite him ordering so many of them.

Quoting WINGS (Reply 5):
If he thinks that the A380 will be a real world beater why is he bothering with the B748i? How will this vote of confidence result in upcoming A380 vs B748i orders?

I cant ever see Emirates ordering the 748i. Its not the plane they want it to be. Boeing cant turn water into wine.

[Edited 2007-04-12 13:31:02]
 
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semobeila
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Thu Apr 12, 2007 8:36 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 2):
Sounds like EADS and EK have come to terms on compensation for the A380 delays.

That's what it looks like. With all the good press Clark is making for Airbus the past few days there must have been some movement in this matter between EK and Airbus.
 
wingman
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Thu Apr 12, 2007 9:22 pm

He's been very complimentary of the 777, complaining only about the price. I'm sure someone will dig up the glowing comments.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Thu Apr 12, 2007 10:10 pm

a.net opinions about "no news being bad news" not withstanding, so far none of the A380 customers have publicly expressed any reservations or concerns about the plane and many have been outright complimentary. Even FX and 5X said they canceled because they could not get it in the timeframe they needed, not because it was unable to perform the missions they intended for it.

And a.net opinions about "they can't be frank because they'll look bad for ordering it in the first place" not withstanding, many of these airlines have had the ability to walk away without penalty and yet none of them have. And those customers who can't get out of their contracts (like, evidently, TG) are looking at adding additional frames. If the plane really was so poor compared to existing and upcoming competitors, then they'd be canceling them and eat the costs. TG is not going to let $90 million force them to spend $1200 million or more (to take delivery of all six frames) if that plane is going to lose tens or even hundreds of millions a year for two decades or more. Because they're going to look a lot more "bad" doing that...
 
SkyyMaster
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Thu Apr 12, 2007 10:27 pm

Just curious, but why is this one man's opinion considered "gospel" in the industry? He doesn't have a single one of these aircraft flying, yet he's willing to make it to be the world's best aircraft ever. It may wind up eventually being so, but it certainly has a LONG way to go to prove that. How many industry analysts have been saying EK is just adding to a glut of over-capacity in the Middle East? Perhaps Mr. Clark is not the visionary many people think he is and should not take everything he says as the definitive indication of what is to come. IIRC, at one time, Frank Lorenzo was considered the salvation of the airline industry, and we all know that story.
 
bigjku
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Thu Apr 12, 2007 10:49 pm

Quoting Legoguy (Reply 17):
The A380 may not be a world beater at the moment, however orders will start rolling in slowly once the aircraft is in service.

I will be shocked if orders pick up substantially. Assuming there are no more delays and at some point Airbus actually gets a production certificate on this aircraft the order line is currently about 5 and a half years long. Just assume they get their 20 orders per year in the next 4 to 5 years and the soonest anyone can get one after seeing the thing in substantial service would be in the 2015-2016 range. That would see Airbus sell around 250 frames. At that point Boeing is likley to either have put out Y-3 if they are not doing Y-1 first or they will be starting the development of Y-3 if they have done Y-1 first. For the A380 to be anything but a total failure it needs to sell steadily for around 20 years.

By 2020 the A380 will be a dead aircraft made from old technology that no airlines will want. As soon as Boeing or Airbus offers a plane in the 350-475 seat range made from CFRP the A380 will not be able to compete. The same argument that says that smaller planes get less benefit from going to CFRP works in the other way for Y-3. Scaling the plane up will increase the benefit of the new technology. Particularly if engines continue to develope and a two engined plane that can haul over 450 passengers is developed the gains in efficiency will be dramatic.

The A380 is an engineering accomplishment. The problem is it is more like the Maginot Line, the Yamato, the SS United States and the Paris Gun. They were the biggest, fastest and best examples of their technology. That technology was just being passed by. Airbus would be better off had they just built a modern 747 sized airplane. They would be rolling in cash if they had built a CFRP 777-747 sized airplane. Hindsight is always 20-20 but history does show many cautionary tales about being the company to build the biggest and best of something while your competitor is building something new.
 
legoguy
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Thu Apr 12, 2007 11:00 pm

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 13):

Perhaps if Airbus eventually decide upon building the larger A380-900, then more orders will roll in. But yes I agree Airbus should have really built a slightly smaller aircraft to take on the 747 directly.
Can you say 'Beer Can' without sounding like a Jamaican saying 'Bacon'?
 
PEET7G
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Thu Apr 12, 2007 11:14 pm

Anyone care to look deeper into the onion? All of a sudden 2 positive comments on Airbus: The A350XWB is on par with the 787, the A380 is a world-beater, yap, yap, yap...

I think the deal is done behind the scenes, a fat big compensation for EK and it involves the XWB... watch out for the next shows to come and just look at how the 787 order will bee thrown into the trash...  Sad

Even all you die-hard Airbii fans have to look at the following points:

-Tim furious on A380 delays claiming this and that and how much the delays hurt his airline and yaps about all the lost millions and billions of dollars...
-Tim criticizing the A350 as it is...
-EK getting more and more in bed with the 787-10...
-Negotiations start between EK and Airbus on compensations for the A380 saga...
-EK getting more and more in bed with the 787-10...
-Almost at the same time auditors visit Toulouse to get info on the XWB project...
-EK getting more and more in bed with the 787-10...
-Auditors return (they returned weeks ago, not now!!!) and nothing special comment, in fact EK even says that there is some progress...but all the comments that came out where very very far from applauding the wonders of the "latest" XWB...
-And then all of a sudden weeks after they finished auditing the XWB, after negotiations where well under way, Tim comes out and floods the media how wonderful the XWB is and what a world-beater the A380 is, etc, etc, etc...

In my interpretation the flow of thing indicate:
BIG BIG compensation has been agreed upon (well ,definitely to the taste of EK), and the XWB is involved in some way... so I say good bye 787 in EK colours and hello A350XWB... and one big big winner is EK in the deal...

...ok that was just my  twocents  ,but just think about it for a minute  Wink

And just let me put my foot down before U Airbii cheerleaders linch me:

-Yes, I do believe the A380 will find it's way in the future, however I do not find it such an "innovating" wonder as many of U would like to show it... it will work and it is a magnificent plane.
-And YES, I do think the A350XWB will be an absolute hit on the Airbus product line, It simply has to be, Airbus has no other option. Yes I do believe it will be on par with the 787, I have to or else Airbus is out of the game... simple as that.
Peet7G
 
bigjku
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Thu Apr 12, 2007 11:19 pm

Quoting Legoguy (Reply 13):
Perhaps if Airbus eventually decide upon building the larger A380-900, then more orders will roll in. But yes I agree Airbus should have really built a slightly smaller aircraft to take on the 747 directly.

The problem with that is the when. If Airbus did not sell another A380-800 then they would still be in the 2012 frame before they could start producing the A380-900. Assuming they can do it with minimal work, since they have plenty of other projects that are far more important, they could start selling the things in 2013 or therabouts. To do this I presume they would have to start offering the A380-900 for sale in the near future.

However there are a few problems, I doubt you can sell the 900 until the 800 proves itself in service. So you are talking 2-3 years before that happens at best. At the same time you had better be selling some 800s or you run the risk of having no orders when your production line gets the first 150 out the door in 2012. So if you sold another 80-100 planes in that time you are pushing back the 900 to 2014-2015 unless people want to convert orders. By the time the 900 model can get into service there will be newer and better things on the immediate horizon.

Airbus needed to build this thing on time for it to work. It honestly should not have been built at all. Now instead of it comming out a few years before CFRP starts gaining acceptance it will be comming out during the dawn of the CFRP airliner. Less than halfway through its projected 30 year life the A380 will be rendered obsolete. Any money thrown at further models is just a waste of cash and effort. One of the first things you should learn in business is to not throw good money after bad. Build as many 800 models as you can and get out of the sinkhole that is the A380.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 12:39 am

Quoting SkyyMaster (Reply 11):
Just curious, but why is this one man's opinion considered "gospel" in the industry?

It's more a.net then the industry, and more because the sheer size of the orders EK has made and the sheer size of the orders they will make warms the hearts of Airbus Aficionados and Boeing Boosters both.  Smile
 
reality
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 2:50 am

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 12):
Hindsight is always 20-20 but history does show many cautionary tales about being the company to build the biggest and best of something while your competitor is building something new.

Maybe we shouldn't try to PREDICT history.

Time will tell.
 
flysherwood
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 3:05 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 7):
Still, Ive never heard him say that about the 777 or any other plane despite him ordering so many of them.

Those planes have never given him any problems that he has to explain to the Board of Directors. C Y A is what this is all about. He better pray that once he has all 45, that no SARS event happens!
 
flysherwood
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 3:19 am

Quoting PEET7G (Reply 14):
And YES, I do think the A350XWB will be an absolute hit on the Airbus product line, It simply has to be, Airbus has no other option. Yes I do believe it will be on par with the 787, I have to or else Airbus is out of the game... simple as that

You are so right on this point. If they don't get the A350XWB done the right way, Airbus will be out of the game. There future is totally dependent upon the A350. And yes, I absolutely hope they have a hit with this airframe!

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 12):
The A380 is an engineering accomplishment. The problem is it is more like the Maginot Line, the Yamato, the SS United States and the Paris Gun

LOL  Smile
 
khobar
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 3:39 am

Quoting AndyEastMids (Thread starter):
'I think it's going to be a real world beater,'' Clark said. ''There's not going to be a lot that's going to touch it.''

LOL. The guy certainly can state the obvious, eh?

Considering there is only one company manufacturing such a species, that doesn't really leave a lot out there to touch it.

But wait...Mr. Clark says there's not a lot out there that's going to touch it. That means there is something out there that is going to touch it. That is a very interesting admission. I wonder - when Mr. Clark said "going to", was he referring to current aircraft "going to touch it" when the A380 comes into service next year, or was he referring to other aircraft that have not yet themselves entered service - the A350, 787, and 748i? Hmmm, interesting admission from Mr. Clark indeed, and certainly not good news for the A380.

Quoting PEET7G (Reply 14):
I think the deal is done behind the scenes, a fat big compensation for EK and it involves the XWB... watch out for the next shows to come and just look at how the 787 order will bee thrown into the trash...

I think you are correct about the deal being done. But what 787 order are you referring to? EK hasn't ordered any and are not likely to. EK is already annoyed at Boeing for not doing the 748i "EK's way", and Boeing hasn't formally launched the 787-10 to EK's specs, also to the displeasure of EK.

Airbus, on the other hand, has had a strong relationship with EK for quite some time. Their A350XWB fits EK's requirement, and EK already owns and/or will own a large number of Airbus aircraft. It's a good partnership. It simply makes good sense for EK to go with Airbus.

It makes equally good sense for Boeing not to waste time and energy chasing EK for this particular deal. Sure it would be sweet, but...
 
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glideslope
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 4:15 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 2):
Sounds like EADS and EK have come to terms on compensation for the A380 delays.

Exactly. Nothing more.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 7):
Still, Ive never heard him say that about the 777 or any other plane despite him ordering so many of them.

Because he does not receive "Delay Compensation" for them.
 Smile

Quoting Reality (Reply 17):
Maybe we shouldn't try to PREDICT history.

Time will tell.

Yes it will. Buy Boeing Stock.
 Smile
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
GBan
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 4:16 am

Quoting Reality (Reply 17):
Maybe we shouldn't try to PREDICT history.

Time will tell.

Very good advice...
 
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zeke
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 5:27 am

PEET7G,

EK got some additional data recently regarding the technical route proving, the LH route trials, and the GP7200 certification on the A380, the numbers from what I understand have been pleasing. I think also the expected delivery times for his 380s has come forward, with the 380F fuselage technology hitting airframes earlier the weight has come down as a result.

On the XWB front Airbus is coming closer to the design freeze, a lot more if known both from Airbus and RR, RR now think their engine will start testing in 2011.

The latest visit to TLS has given them something they didnt have before, information. The information shows a trend that Airbus is listening to its customers, and trying to deliver exactly what they want, for EK that was the getting the range they wanted with good economics.

The A350XWB-1000 will burn 25% less fuel per seat over the 773ER, and A350XWB-900 30% less fuel seat than on a 772ER, and the 350XWB is giving EK something they want, the desired range. From what I understand only one 787 model at the moment has the desired range EK is looking for.

I think as a result of their latest visit, people are rethinking their fleet planning, keep the 777s longer, and replace them with them with 350XWBs when they become available, if the need additional aircraft, go with 777s and 330s, skip the 787 fad.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
keesje
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 6:24 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 23):
Zeke

Agreed. IMO could turn out into Boeing dominating the 220-260 seat segment with the 787-8 and 787-9, and Airbus the 280-350 seat segment with the A350-900 and A350-1000. I can image the 789 being more optimized then the A358.

Remarkable IMO is that for EK its hub seems to be a kind of center of the world. Few places that cannot be reached non-stop with ULH aircraft (777LR/788/A345/A358) because DXB is on the opposite side of the center Pacific. A kind of Fedex single hub system comes to mind (for worldwide cargo)..


(8500nm range from dxb)
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nitrohelper
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 7:57 am

Quoting AndyEastMids (Thread starter):
'I think it's going to be a real world beater,'' Clark said. There's not going to be a lot that's going to touch it.''

Did he mean not a lot of the Airlines will touch it ?  stirthepot 
How many will be delivered to the Airlines ten years from now ( 2017 ) ?  scratchchin 

I asked this question last July , , When will the SQ daily A380 service be available, maybe Feb. 2008 ?
Do they need three air frames to have daily operations. I plan to fly on SQ business from the USA to Indonesia this summer, and I want to ride on the " WhaleJet " on the way.

How many " World Beater " A380's will be flying in ten years ? Will she be the modern day L 1011 ?
Could anyone "guesstimate" how many A380s will be flying during Jan. 2020.
I start the bidding at 250 EIS .
Will Point to Point kill the big fat fish ?  point   duck 
 
redflyer
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 8:07 am

Quoting Nitrohelper (Reply 25):
Could anyone "guesstimate" how many A380s will be flying during Jan. 2020.

About 200. All of them converted freighters.
My other home is a Piper Cherokee 180C
 
RoyalAtlantis
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 10:04 am

Yes LHR is slot controlled, Yes DXB is a leaping-off point...but still, how is Emirates going to fill 43 A380's?

I still agree with the point-to-point concept and that people are going to want to avoid megahubs in general. Exception might be Dubai b/c it's new and large (but 43 A380's and hundreds of A350's??) and T5 @ Heathrow only makes things more miserable btw.

Interesting that airlines like EOS, Max/SilverJet are starting to appear and be successful using secondary airports on popular runs WHILE at the same time the likes of Ryan Air are looking at trans-atlantic operations from/to 2nd tier airports. Two things seem apparent - people get to pay less and they get to travel from less congested airports with fewer delays, less risk of disaster with planes taking off on the heals of others etc. Also, looks a lot like the wealthy won't have to mingle with serfs as they'll be on separate planes. Anyone contesting the 2nd tier concept should look at Ryan Air's P&L.

Also, the mere thought of being on a plane with even more passengers than a 744 is daunting. Longer to board, more bodies as neighbors etc. I don't get the appeal. Give me a dreamliner any day. I've flown on EOS to Stansted and though further from London but a few km's - the whole experience, from start to finish...was superior and I avoided LHR. Now only if there were options on the NYC side!

Let the (*&^(*&^ begin...  duck 
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 10:37 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 24):
Agreed. IMO could turn out into Boeing dominating the 220-260 seat segment with the 787-8 and 787-9, and Airbus the 280-350 seat segment with the A350-900 and A350-1000. I can image the 789 being more optimized then the A358.

Whoh, so you can have it both ways? You can compare the 787-9 to the A350-900 when it comes to economics, yet you don't have to compare them when it comes to marketing?

Damn, keesje with those skills if you just worked on having your cake and eating it too, you could be a billionare.

[Edited 2007-04-13 03:37:58]
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 10:41 am

Quoting Nitrohelper (Reply 25):
Do they need three air frames to have daily operations.

I think they are going to start with shorthaul "lets get this figured out and people trained on real hardware" flights... much like AC did with thier new 777. Also if they really need the capacity, they can double it up with a 747 so that on trips that only take a single day, the 747 flys the reverse leg till they get a second A380.
 
sparklehorse12
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 11:31 am

There is so much fuss about what Tim Clark has to say. He likes the A380 - good on him. The A380 is up there with the 747 as one of the great aviation marvells in history.

even if you don't like airbus you have to admit the A380 is an amazing feat.

Tim Clark is at the helm of one of the most powerful airlines so what he says does matter.
Airlines Flown : QF,NW,AA, CX, AC, MH, SQ, DJ, NZ, TG, PG,US, FJ, J8, AN, DD, JQ
 
redflyer
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 11:40 am

Quoting Sparklehorse12 (Reply 30):
The A380 is up there with the 747 as one of the great aviation marvells in history.

It is. But then so was Concorde. And so was the Spruce Goose. Neither of which was a great ROI for their builders.

Quoting Sparklehorse12 (Reply 30):
Tim Clark is at the helm of one of the most powerful airlines so what he says does matter.

Whether or not EK is one of the most powerful airlines is purely subjective. If roughly 30% of your production for one model -- and your most expensive one at that -- is tied to the fortunes of one customer, well then, I guess that does make his airline powerful.
My other home is a Piper Cherokee 180C
 
ComeAndGo
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 1:13 pm

Quoting Nitrohelper (Reply 25):
Will Point to Point kill the big fat fish ?

Ryanair and their planed LCC point to point trans atlantic service is going to kill everything we know and the A380 will be nothing more than a 850 seater LCC bus ride. After copycat longhaul LCC take off, the majors are going to go premium service only, say, premium economy, business and first only. All economy will fly LCC and everything will move on 787s and A350s. How about premium business jet flights point to point instead of the current hub system.
 
PEET7G
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 3:28 pm

Quoting Khobar (Reply 20):
I think you are correct about the deal being done. But what 787 order are you referring to? EK hasn't ordered any and are not likely to. EK is already annoyed at Boeing for not doing the 748i "EK's way", and Boeing hasn't formally launched the 787-10 to EK's specs, also to the displeasure of EK.

I did not mean that any order already existed, rather than pointing to the pretty common opinion here and in the media, that EK and Boeing are close to launching the 787-10 and that EK will be a first-in for this variant with a large order. Just read around it was being handled almost as a done deal, just like QR with the A350XWB order.

As for your comment on EK being annoyed at Boeing, well... I don't know where you get that info from. It is to the contrary, Maybe EK could not spin Boeing the way they can spin Airbus, but this is because Boeing is the only supplier that never screwed them over, always delivered them what they promised and even exceeding their contractual promises...even if there will be die hard cheerleaders attacking me on this comment, but the funny thing is that this is one factual argument they can not deny, so how can EK toy around with someone they have no grip on?
Peet7G
 
AVinutso
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 3:37 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 23):
The A350XWB-1000 will burn 25% less fuel per seat over the 773ER, and A350XWB-900 30% less fuel seat than on a 772ER, and the 350XWB is giving EK something they want, the desired range.

That is a pretty bold statement for an aircraft that is not finalized in its design. A 30% gain in efficiency over a 772ER is a HUGE number - I just don't see a 787 or A350-XWB making those numbers. Maybe 30% over 767 and A333.

The A380 may be a world beater, which I think it may be but it still will be a money losing venture for Airbus when you think of how many frames have to be sold and the demand for the type.

I just take Clark's quotes with a grain of salt. He also stated that the 350-XWB had closed the gap on the 787 even though it is still on the drawing board.
Maybe we shoulda thought of that FIRST
 
EnviroTO
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 4:16 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 24):

Remarkable IMO is that for EK its hub seems to be a kind of center of the world.

When you have a 8500nm range there are many places from which almost every destination can be reached. 8500nm from YWG covers everywhere except Perth. 8500nm@YZF does even better.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 10:10 pm

The allexperts article on the 747 cites only one three sources for information, so I assume the claims that some 747s deliveries were a year late and that delay almost bankrupted the company are in those sources somewhere.

Personally, I think the cancellation of the 2707 program and sharply rising oil prices due to the embargo by Arab OPEC members contributed more to the Boeing downturn in the early 1970's then a few late 741s. The 2707 was far more a "bet the company" move then the 747, even with the significant government support being provided which helped offset the 2707's development costs.

Boeing's own data shows 96 747 frames delivered in the first year (December 1969 to December 1970), starting at 3 per month, then rising to 5 in February, 8 in March, 10 in April, 13 in May, falling to 5 in June, back to 8 in July, 10 in Aug, 6 in September, 10 in October, 8 in November, and 5 in December.

Boeing had 178 orders by December 1969, so they had slightly more then half of all orders to that date delivered in a year, so I imagine if any airline did wait a year for their planes, it was by choice or necessity on their end (not ready for delivery) and not because Boeing "muffed it"...

[Edited 2007-04-13 15:29:11]
 
khobar
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Fri Apr 13, 2007 11:51 pm

Quoting PEET7G (Reply 33):
I did not mean that any order already existed, rather than pointing to the pretty common opinion here and in the media, that EK and Boeing are close to launching the 787-10 and that EK will be a first-in for this variant with a large order. Just read around it was being handled almost as a done deal, just like QR with the A350XWB order.

Ah, okay - in the media and around here.

As for EK being annoyed at Boeing, I think that is accurate. With a compensation package from Airbus I don't see how anyone could imagine EK got screwed by them - Mr. Clark's gushing about the A380 and his directed excitement about the A350 seems to indicate he is far from unhappy with Airbus.

Of course that's just my opinion.
 
SailorOrion
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Sat Apr 14, 2007 1:12 am

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 32):
Ryanair and their planed LCC point to point trans atlantic service is going to kill everything we know and the A380 will be nothing more than a 850 seater LCC bus ride. After copycat longhaul LCC take off, the majors are going to go premium service only, say, premium economy, business and first only. All economy will fly LCC and everything will move on 787s and A350s. How about premium business jet flights point to point instead of the current hub system.

I really really don't see that happening. People have been saying this for years: The LCCs will kill the majors, the majors will focus on a few premium passengers only, the majors will see a major dip in passengers, yada, yada.
Let's have a look at die-hard facts:

In Q1 2000 (right before the burst of the new economy bubble, low oil prices, bullish stock markets and a healthy German economy), LH transported 8.3 million passengers for 5.4 billion RPK.
In Q1 2007 (after tripling in oil price, a German economy on brakes, Iraq War, SARS, 911, whatever), LH transported 9.5 million passengers for 6.8 billion RPK.

These figures are for short-haul (i.e. Intra-European) traffic only. Total figures grew much more significantly during that time. Gives an annual growth of 2% in passenger numbers and, more importantly, 3.3% in RPK. I find this pretty impressive for an airline whose business concept (major, hub-focused carrier) is supposedly doomed.

Source: LH Inverstor Relations

SailorOrion
 
bigjku
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Sat Apr 14, 2007 1:35 am

Quoting SailorOrion (Reply 39):
These figures are for short-haul (i.e. Intra-European) traffic only. Total figures grew much more significantly during that time. Gives an annual growth of 2% in passenger numbers and, more importantly, 3.3% in RPK. I find this pretty impressive for an airline whose business concept (major, hub-focused carrier) is supposedly doomed.

I would not say major carriers are doomed. They will just have to adjust if, and I think its a big if, LCC get into the international flying market. Specifically LCC threaten very large planes flying out of hubs because they can pull off a lot of trafic from the bigger connecting flights and get them on a direct flight to where they are going.

When you have to fill 500 or more seats on your flight from Paris to New York and someone else comes in and runs a cheaper flight from one of your major feeder locations is going to put price pressure on your flight.

I look at it like I am shopping for my current vacation.

I want to go to Vegas, I can fly direct for $400 or I can fly with a connection in Denver for around $400. Which one would you choose? It is sort of a no brainer. So the connecting flight has to be cheaper. The question is how much cheaper? That is a lot more downward price pressure than just another competing flight at the same airport IMHO.

This is what will kill the A380. For countries with one major airport it might survive. In places like the US and other more developed nations it will struggle in the long run.
 
SEPilot
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Sat Apr 14, 2007 2:57 am

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 12):
The A380 is an engineering accomplishment. The problem is it is more like the Maginot Line, the Yamato, the SS United States and the Paris Gun. They were the biggest, fastest and best examples of their technology. That technology was just being passed by. Airbus would be better off had they just built a modern 747 sized airplane. They would be rolling in cash if they had built a CFRP 777-747 sized airplane. Hindsight is always 20-20 but history does show many cautionary tales about being the company to build the biggest and best of something while your competitor is building something new.

Exactly. The A380 will be obsolete long before it has paid for itself.

Quoting PEET7G (Reply 14):
In my interpretation the flow of thing indicate:
BIG BIG compensation has been agreed upon (well ,definitely to the taste of EK), and the XWB is involved in some way... so I say good bye 787 in EK colours and hello A350XWB... and one big big winner is EK in the deal...

I think you've nailed it.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 26):

About 200. All of them converted freighters.

There will be very few A380's converted to freighters; it just doesn't make a good freighter. There will be enough 744's available (57 from BA alone) that will be available that the economics of the A380 as a freighter just won't be competitive.

Quoting Sparklehorse12 (Reply 30):

even if you don't like airbus you have to admit the A380 is an amazing feat.

Why? They just built a bigger plane. Boeing or MD could have done the same thing, and both contemplated it before the merger. They both believed that the market didn't justify it, and so far they have been proven right. The A380 offers no significant technological advances, just size. The A-225 is more of a technological accomplishment, if you really want to come down to it, but it's hardly been a commercial success.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
keesje
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Sat Apr 14, 2007 3:51 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 42):
The 2707 was far more a "bet the company" move then the 747

I think the 2707 was a fully government-funded contract

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 42):
Exactly. The A380 will be obsolete long before it has paid for itself.



Quoting SEPilot (Reply 42):
The A380 offers no significant technological advances, just size. The A-225 is more of a technological accomplishment, if you really want to come down to it, but it's hardly been a commercial success.

I can imagine some people think this is a somewhat premature statement few months before the first aircraft enters service. Its like in 1970 people saying the 747 will be obselete long before it has paid for itself.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
JayinKitsap
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Sat Apr 14, 2007 4:26 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 24):
Remarkable IMO is that for EK its hub seems to be a kind of center of the world. Few places that cannot be reached non-stop with ULH aircraft (777LR/788/A345/A358) because DXB is on the opposite side of the center Pacific. A kind of Fedex single hub system comes to mind (for worldwide cargo)..

Great map BTW, it does show that DXB can connect to everywhere. Yes with all of the 777ER, 777LR, 380's and the so to be added 100 787/350's, EK will be able to be a hub with a lot of spokes over 5,000 nm. However, it would be expected that the passenger will select alternate flights if comparably priced when the total travel time exceeds 3 to 4 hours more than the alternates. It is unlikely that EK could offer competative fares (or the passenger would want to endure) LAX-DXB-JFK or LAX-DXB-LHR as it adds over 10,000 miles to the trip. Even JFK-FCO is 5,200 nm shorter than JFK-DXB-FCO.

JFK-DXB-SYD is 4,375 nm longer than JFK-SYD direct so a more in line hub makes sense. The added flight lengths vix DXB only make economic sense when DXB is "in line" with the O and D or is near one of the destinations. Europe to India or Southeast Asia makes sense. Europe to Australia via DXB makes sense. Austrailia / SE Asia to S America vis DXB makes sense.

What perplexes me with EK is to make sense as a hub a lot of the spokes are well under 6,000 nm. However, every plane seems to need 8,000 nm range.
 
redflyer
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Sat Apr 14, 2007 4:36 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 44):
I think the 2707 was a fully government-funded contract

Close. 90% of the estimated $1.5 billion (in 1970 dollars) was supposed to be funded by the U.S. government.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 44):
Its like in 1970 people saying the 747 will be obselete long before it has paid for itself.

That statement is not too far off the mark. The 747 was not expected to remain in passenger revenue service beyond a decade, with the SSTs expected to take up passenger service and the 747s to be converted to freighter duty; with remaining future 747 production to be exclusively dedicated to freighters.
My other home is a Piper Cherokee 180C
 
PEET7G
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Sat Apr 14, 2007 5:25 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 41):
Quoting SEPilot (Reply 42):
Exactly. The A380 will be obsolete long before it has paid for itself.



Quoting SEPilot (Reply 42):
The A380 offers no significant technological advances, just size. The A-225 is more of a technological accomplishment, if you really want to come down to it, but it's hardly been a commercial success.

I can imagine some people think this is a somewhat premature statement few months before the first aircraft enters service. Its like in 1970 people saying the 747 will be obselete long before it has paid for itself.

I think you are a bit exaggerating the importance of the A380. It was an evolution in some way when they started designing the bird, but be honest... apart from it's size and the obvious economical gains coming from that and the new engines (which by the way Airbus has got nothing to do with, in terms of design and production) , the A380 has nothing that an 777NG or an A340NG does not have. and to be even more realistic, by the time the WhaleJet will enter service something new will already be flying, something that has already defined the new trend aircrafts will be made in the future. Now that is revolutionary.

As for putting the A380 on par with the queen of the skies... well... The 747 was a real evolution, a jump in aviation history after the 747 Long haul travel was never the same, building planes where never the same, the materials, electronics, etc, etc, etc... and one even more important thing, when the 747 entered service (even with the so much mentioned delays) everyone else was just starting to use that technology to build airframes. Let me go further, they used that same method and materials for decades to come  bigthumbsup 

Now before anyone flames me for being pro Boeing only, I truly believe the A320 brought more to the table with it's revolutionary technologies and has put it's foot down with a heavier landmark in aviation history.
Peet7G
 
Lemurs
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Sat Apr 14, 2007 5:29 am

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 39):
I would not say major carriers are doomed. They will just have to adjust if, and I think its a big if, LCC get into the international flying market. Specifically LCC threaten very large planes flying out of hubs because they can pull off a lot of trafic from the bigger connecting flights and get them on a direct flight to where they are going.

When you have to fill 500 or more seats on your flight from Paris to New York and someone else comes in and runs a cheaper flight from one of your major feeder locations is going to put price pressure on your flight.

You're absolutely right, but the problem is that this isn't a new idea for TATL flying that Ryanair is about to introduce. That fragmentation started years ago already among the majors, and is only accelerating now. That is why you're seeing a lot of 757's flying to Europe right now. CO is one of the most profitable US airlines in the US-UK market with no slots to LHR, because they fly into about every secondary market that can manage to land a 757. Other airlines are following suit. The LCC's will be late to the party, so their price edge will come from pure cost removal. They'll find out how much people will be willing to spend for no ammentities. (I have no idea personally, but I do believe there is a market for it...just smaller than the <3hr domestic markets)
There are 10 kinds of people in the world; those who understand binary, and those that don't.
 
bigjku
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Sat Apr 14, 2007 5:43 am

Quoting Lemurs (Reply 45):
You're absolutely right, but the problem is that this isn't a new idea for TATL flying that Ryanair is about to introduce. That fragmentation started years ago already among the majors, and is only accelerating now. That is why you're seeing a lot of 757's flying to Europe right now. CO is one of the most profitable US airlines in the US-UK market with no slots to LHR, because they fly into about every secondary market that can manage to land a 757. Other airlines are following suit. The LCC's will be late to the party, so their price edge will come from pure cost removal. They'll find out how much people will be willing to spend for no ammentities. (I have no idea personally, but I do believe there is a market for it...just smaller than the <3hr domestic markets)

I agree completly. It is not so much that the LCC will compete directly it is that they will further fragment the market. Every plane that goes out from a non-hub airport or lands at a non-hub airport is bleeding some business off from the hub to hub flights. That will exert more downward price pressure than a competing flight on the same route in my opinion.

I think you will see more flights leave secondary airports and fly to an international hub you will see more flights leave the international hubs and fly straight to secondary airports. The hub system will not go away as much as you will only have to really mess with it once rather than twice.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Sat Apr 14, 2007 5:46 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 24):
and Airbus the 280-350 seat segment with the A350-900 and A350-1000.

Nobody is going to buy the 787-10 (78X)? There are quite a few 772s out there and A340s that will need replacing, and customers are going to split 50:50 Airbus and Boeing whether you like it or not...  Wink

Boeing will "dominate" the 788 size, since they have already sold 400 of that size, so Airbus can't catch up without a modern competitor. The A330 is selling, but will dry up considerably after 2010. Unless Airbus has plans to replace the A300/332 sized jet with a new model, they will concede this market forever.

Then the 789/78X + 358/359 will compete heavily and neither will dominate, though the 789 has a bit of a headstart on the other 3 models.

Then the A350-1000 will take over the 300+ seat market in 2015 (and 77W orders will dry up in 2010) until Boeing delivers a new generation plane, which won't be for a while, but could be as early as 2017. So Airbus will dominate as long as they are the only player, then they will share the market.

Airbus will also dominate the 500+ seat market, Boeing will dominate the 400-500 seat market, despite neither of them selling a lot of planes...  Wink
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
bigjku
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RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Sat Apr 14, 2007 6:02 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 47):
Airbus will also dominate the 500+ seat market, Boeing will dominate the 400-500 seat market, despite neither of them selling a lot of planes...

I agree with this but I think there is an interesting side factor that needs to be looked at.

Boeing has a much eaiser path to link up their product line in the next 10 or so years than does Airbus. While this won't make much difference to airlines that operate mostly big widebodies or the LCCs that operate all narrowbodies it will be of importance to the legacy carriers who operate across the range.

Boeing is 2 new AC from having a full CFRP lineup. Presumably they will either start work on Y-1 or Y-3 after the 787 rolls out, then they will do the other. Presuming there are no major screw ups by 2020 the family should be in place covering all seating options from 150 on up through 475 or so.

Airbus is further away. They are currently just starting on a CFRP airplane and presumably could not get much of a start on the A320RS until 2013-2015 or around there. It will be tough, almost impossible, to cover everything from 150 up to the lower levels of the A350 sizes with one airframe. Regardless they cannot get more than the 350 and the 320RS done before 2020 I would not think.

So in 2020 it probably looks like this.

Boeing: Y1, 787, Y3
Airbus: 320RS, 330, 350, 380

Airbus probably will just let the 330 go, they won't have many other options. I think the 380 will get eaten alive by Y3. Boeing will also be able to leverage legacy carriers that need a range of aircraft by offering a continuous family of airplanes for all their needs with the same technology and same savings. Airbus won't have that and I think it will hurt them in the long run.
 
SEPilot
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Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: Clark On A380 - A World Beater!

Sat Apr 14, 2007 6:47 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 36):
The 2707 was far more a "bet the company" move then the 747,

The development costs of the 747 exceeded the net worth of Boeing at the time. If that isn't a "bet the company" move I've never heard of one. As others have noted, the 2707 was mostly government funded.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 41):

I think the 2707 was a fully government-funded contract

It was mostly government funded, but Boeing put up some as well, I believe.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 41):
I can imagine some people think this is a somewhat premature statement few months before the first aircraft enters service. Its like in 1970 people saying the 747 will be obselete long before it has paid for itself.

As RedFlyer noted, this was the thought at the time. The difference is that Boeing planned for it by optimizing it for the freighter role, which Airbus most notably has not done. The other difference is that the 747 was the first of a new class of airliners, while the A380 will probably be the last large aluminum airliner.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler

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