BigGSFO
Topic Author
Posts: 2214
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2005 5:27 am

Report: US Hopes For Open Skies With China

Fri Apr 13, 2007 11:42 pm

 
Flighty
Posts: 7681
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

RE: Report: US Hopes For Open Skies With China

Sat Apr 14, 2007 12:25 am

This would certainly not happen. Of course the US hopes for Open Skies with China. So what? This is not news. They are delusional if they think China is in ANY mood to give gifts to the USA right now. They have a major trade dispute that is only going to heat up for the rest of 2007.

In view of the UPS PVG hub story, China might be leaning in favor of modernized transportation links (with lots of US involvement). Maybe China is theorizing that faster transporation will aid their economy. Still, the airline sector is very strategic and it seems unlikely China would surrender their protections of it. Time will tell.
 
commavia
Posts: 9744
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: Report: US Hopes For Open Skies With China

Sat Apr 14, 2007 2:40 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 1):
This would certainly not happen.

It just might.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070413/china_us_airlines.html?.v=9

Certainly, the Chinese carriers are still in a more vulnerable position right now then U.S. carriers that have a larger existing presence in the market. However, China's airlines are getting stronger, and the Chinese government may have started to feel that it is sufficiently confident in domestic carriers that it can start to back of from protecting them quite as much.

Beyond that, the Chinese are not stupid: they know that the resulting influx of new flights between the two countries than an Open Skies would certainly usher in would be a boon to the Chinese economy and bring billions each year in new commerce and tourism into China.

My predictions, if a framework Open Skies were to be reached, would be:


American

DFW-Beijing, if they can get pilot agreement (which may be tough given current circumstances)
ORD-Beijing, but with same pilot union difficulties
LAX-Beijing, if neither of the above work out

Continental

EWR-Shanghai
IAH-Shanghai and/or -Beijing (Olympics may sway them towards Beijing)

Delta

ATL-Shanghai and/or -Beijing (Olympics may sway them towards Beijing)

Northwest

DTW-Shanghai

United

SFO-Guangzhou, a route they could fill up easily today with a daily 747

USAirways

PHL-Shanghai
 
travelin man
Posts: 3198
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2000 10:04 am

RE: Report: US Hopes For Open Skies With China

Sat Apr 14, 2007 3:03 am

I think UA would also do LAX-PVG/PEK.

The LAX-China market is currently not served at all by any American carriers.
 
Flighty
Posts: 7681
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

RE: Report: US Hopes For Open Skies With China

Sat Apr 14, 2007 3:15 am

Some lady who works for the US went to China and gave a speech that she hopes this will happen. The Chinese do not acknowledge they are even thinking about it.

In effect this is America asking for a big favor. In China, the reports say America is pleading for more access. This will be milked by China for its full value. To say it will happen in 2007, that is wildly optimistic.

If it does happen, the US will have to bribe dearly for it. Look for a phase-in starting around 2011 or 2012. It will not happen very soon. China is using this as a poker chip, and with them, nothing comes for free. They will want the WTO complaints to be dropped... and that is just the beginning.
 
B2443
Posts: 587
Joined: Sat Jul 03, 2004 2:28 am

RE: Report: US Hopes For Open Skies With China

Sat Apr 14, 2007 3:46 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 4):
They will want the WTO complaints to be dropped

Or the US remove some visa requirements so more Chinese could come to the US.

Or until the Chinese airlines start to be profittable on China-US routes.

The 2004 agreement was difficult enough with huge resistence from the Chinese airlines, who claimed they did not benefit from the deal at all - turning moeny losing US routes into money makers.

Currently CA has used up its rights on daily PEK-LAX/SFO/JFK but MU and CZ still have rights un-used. CA, code-sharing with UA on many CA filights, is trying to make money on US routes this year. They have installed flat beds in first class and updated bussiness class.

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