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1337Delta764
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Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 4:13 am

With US Airways swtiching to the 787, that puts Airbus's hopes in doubt for selling A350s to airlines in North America. Does the A350 still have a chance? Please don't regard this thread as a poll, but as a discussion.

Continental, Northwest, Air Canada, and Aeromexico have all chosen the 787.

Delta and American, being loyal Boeing customers, will probably choose the 787 as well.

United has applied to be Boeing's 787 GoldCare provider, so the 787 probably has the edge with United.

The only airline in North America who I see may order the A350 is Mexicana, but it probably won't be in large quantities.
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DIA
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 4:16 am

Hasn't there been one or two N. American-based aircraft leasing companies and/or cargo airlines that have purchased the A350?

Also, don't forget Air Transat...I'd bet they go A350 in the future.
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CYatUK
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 4:20 am

I think the only chances are with airlines ordering both.
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1337Delta764
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 4:26 am

Quoting DIA (Reply 1):
Hasn't there been one or two N. American-based aircraft leasing companies and/or cargo airlines that have purchased the A350?

GECAS, ILFC, and CIT Group have ordered the pre-XWB A350; it has not been confirmed that they have gone with the XWB. However, they are not airlines, they are leasing companies. If they still do have the A350 on order, maybe Mexicana can get some leased A350s from them.
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airfrnt
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 4:28 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Thread starter):
With US Airways swtiching to the 787, that puts Airbus's hopes in doubt for selling A350s to airlines in North America. Does the A350 still have a chance? Please don't regard this thread as a poll, but as a discussion.

The big problem with the A350 in the US market is that it is simply too large. Most of the carriers already operate Boeing 777s, which won't be replaced any time soon. Most of them do have large 767 fleets that need replacement, and their options are going to be 330s or 787s. Given the performance advantage of a 787 over a 330 (~20%) very few of them will opt for the 330.

The 350 might have a shot with United, given that UA was one of the first clients for both the 744 and the 777, but given that almost all of the carriers prefer frequency over capacity, I suspect that any order here would be smallish.
 
aa1818
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 5:05 am

US hasn't decided 787 or A350 yet, so let's not write them off. Potential candidates as others have mentioned are Air Transat who operate many A330s, US, UA (somehow I see the A350 having a REAL chance with UA), MX (who is all Airbus apart from a handful of a/c and will likely remain all Airbus for the forseeable future. Other than that- AC, CO, NW are all bagged in the Boeing camp, AA and DL are virtual certainties, and we are yet to see new long haul startups in Mexico and the USA which could allow for more A350 operators.

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Lumberton
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. Americ

Thu Apr 26, 2007 5:15 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Thread starter):
With US Airways swtiching to the 78

This hasn't been confirmed AFAIK.

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 5):
US hasn't decided 787 or A350 yet, so let's not write them off.

 checkmark 

IMO, the answer to the threadstarter's question is a resounding "Yes!". Delivery positions for the 787 are filling up fast and AA, DL, UA may have waited too long to commit. Of course, they may have deals working in the background as we speak with either OEM.

BTW, would there be any chance of AA, DL, and UA teaming up to negotiate with Boeing or Airbus for a consolidated mega deal?
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 5:26 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 6):

BTW, would there be any chance of AA, DL, and UA teaming up to negotiate with Boeing or Airbus for a consolidated mega deal?

Zero chance. Star Alliance couldn't even get it together for an RJ order and they are all on the same team.
 
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 7:33 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 6):
IMO, the answer to the threadstarter's question is a resounding "Yes!". Delivery positions for the 787 are filling up fast and AA, DL, UA may have waited too long to commit. Of course, they may have deals working in the background as we speak with either OEM.

Delta and American have "Favored Nation" status with Boeing, which means that Boeing can give them special delivery slot, so I don't see them going with Airbus regardless of slots. Either way they will probably have their 787s delivered before the A350 enters service.
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cygnuschicago
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 7:54 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 6):
would there be any chance of AA, DL, and UA teaming up to negotiate with Boeing or Airbus for a consolidated mega deal?

My understanding of the deal that AA and DL have with Boeing is that they buy exclusively Boeing in return for the lowest price of the past 12 months, kind of like Walmart's EDLP. Thus, teaming up wouldn't really get them anything.
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aminobwana
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 8:15 am

I seem to see a misconception regarding the comparison of delivery dates for the A350 and B787

Assuming that BOEING does not decide to make a radical increase (meaning over 12/month) of their
production, they will be soon booked out until 2014. So, as the A350 will enter commercial service (??)
in 2014, some people seems to think that order B787 or A350 becomes the same thing from the
delivery dates point of view.

But the fact is that the A350 would be (at this obviously is not a slam dunk) in 2014 exactly where
BOEING will be in 2008. Analog to BOEING, they would be able to build may be 60 units in the year
2014-2015, 100 in 2015-2016, But if the orders from Emirates, Qatar, Singapore, Russia etc, in total
about 250 become real,and these would insist to be served first, even if partially, , there will be no
opening for new customers until may be 2017 !!

And obviously, once BOEING gets 1,000+ orders, in spite of all the concerns no to repeat past errors
they will increase capacity from 2009/10 on and make sure that their delivery dates remain before AIRBUS'

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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 8:51 am

I agree. Air Transat, USAirways and Mexicana seem to be the only possible candidates at this point in time. I don't know how much the GoldCare issue will push UA towards the 787, but I think that UA will select the 787.

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 6):
would there be any chance of AA, DL, and UA teaming up to negotiate with Boeing or Airbus for a consolidated mega deal?

No, but maybe in the future, DL could team up with CO and NW to bargain together with Boeing for a combined 787 order (in the case of the latter two, I am talking of a follow-on order).
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 8:59 am

But the fact is that the A350 would be (at this obviously is not a slam dunk) in 2014 exactly where
BOEING will be in 2008.


You miss one large factor. Assuming both the 787 and A350 are in service and available in 2014, the 787 will have been in service for over 5 years, with known performance figures and all the teething problems worked out.

The A350 won't.
 
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 9:04 am

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 5):
US hasn't decided 787 or A350 yet

My take.... US is the unidentified customer for the 30 787's and its already done.
 
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 9:27 am

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 10):
Assuming that BOEING does not decide to make a radical increase (meaning over 12/month) of their
production, they will be soon booked out until 2014. So, as the A350 will enter commercial service (??)
in 2014, some people seems to think that order B787 or A350 becomes the same thing from the
delivery dates point of view.



Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 12):
You miss one large factor. Assuming both the 787 and A350 are in service and available in 2014, the 787 will have been in service for over 5 years, with known performance figures and all the teething problems worked out.

I think Aminobwana's point is well said and commonly overlooked. Assuming that all of the old 350, the current 350XWB, and the pending orders are all firmed up for the 350XWB, Airbus has approximately 250 planes which probably have nearly all of the early deliver slots. I am sure the original 350 spots will be pretty compressed in the new schedule as deliveries were to begin around '10. So if the first year is 50 and the next couple of years are around 8/month (the current 330/340 rate - before the increase) it would be 3 years already sold out or 2017 before a substantial number of new slots are available. Right now if the 787 is at a rate of 10/month, Boeing has something like 300 open slots in the same time frame.

That would support 10 airlines taking 10 per year during that interim. Even AA probably won't be taking 10 widebodies a year for an ongoing period. I've heard that their NB replacement numbers are like 20 per year over 15 years.
 
Tristarfreak
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 9:38 am

I don't think the 350 will do much in the US and it was my understanding from a thread some time ago about AA getting 738's that they also have to order 787's later this year and that their mind is already made up and with DL being an all Boeing a/c operator they which means that they will go 787 as well and I'm sure UA is going to follow suit soon
 
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 9:41 am

Quoting Pygmalion (Reply 13):
My take.... US is the unidentified customer for the 30 787's and its already done.

The fact that the US employee notes suggest that there is a single 60-plane order (and the fact that Boeing doesn't list 30 odd 739ERs as a UFO...) might suggest otherwise. Time will tell.

cheers.
 
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 9:47 am

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see A350's in the US. I'm not sure about large numbers though, especially if Boeing gets Y3 right and most of all, their timing right. If Y3 is even remotely as successful as the 787, and Boeing times it with the 777 replacement cycle, Airbus might have problems selling a lot of A350's in the US.
As for US Airways, they've made it clear that they're not ready to announce their decision saying it will come in the next several weeks instead (Paris is my guess). If they do go 787 for their wide bodies, I also see a bunch of A32X as well.
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manni
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. Americ

Thu Apr 26, 2007 10:02 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 4):
Most of them do have large 767 fleets that need replacement, and their options are going to be 330s or 787s. Given the performance advantage of a 787 over a 330 (~20%) very few of them will opt for the 330.

You are only a few years late. US and Northwest have both ordered the A330. As for chosing the 787 over the A330 in 2014... I'd be surprised if any of them would opt for the A330.

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 10):
But the fact is that the A350 would be (at this obviously is not a slam dunk) in 2014 exactly where
BOEING will be in 2008.

This is not a fact. Airbus talks about halfway 2013. A lot of aircraft can be build in 6 months, and since you are making the comparison with Boeing, perhaps Airbus will also start building A350XWB's beforehand so it can deliver a few dozen at once.

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 10):
Analog to BOEING, they would be able to build may be 60 units in the year
2014-2015, 100 in 2015-2016,

To early to tell! We dont know anything about the planned production rate for the A350XWB. We do know that Airbus plans to build upto 10 A330 a month.

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 10):
But if the orders from Emirates, Qatar, Singapore, Russia etc, in total
about 250 become real,and these would insist to be served first, even if partially, , there will be no
opening for new customers until may be 2017 !!

Are you talking orders, commitments and 'old' A350 orders? That would be 268 then, excluding the potential EK order and including (for now) the US Airways order.


One more thing. Wasn't Kingfisher going to start up an American based airline? There you've got your US A350 based operator.  bigthumbsup 
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Flighty
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 10:18 am

The 777 was very successful. The A350 can replace it. Sure, Boeing will do the Y3 but Airbus is already there.

You can wait around for Boeing's super light plastic 777 but remember, Airbus is already building one called the A350. So yeah, there is a market for that. UA for example has many 777s that will be old by then.
 
MCIGuy
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 10:55 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 19):
The 777 was very successful. The A350 can replace it. Sure, Boeing will do the Y3 but Airbus is already there.

You can wait around for Boeing's super light plastic 777 but remember, Airbus is already building one called the A350. So yeah, there is a market for that. UA for example has many 777s that will be old by then.

True, but it looks like Y3 will go at least one size past the A350, unless they make a one more stretch past the A350-1000. Boeing will likely market it as a ULR 777-747 replacement.  Smile
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dellatorre
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 11:19 am

I just don't understand why so many people think that Airlines that are ordering the 787 won't order the A350 in the future.
Of course AA, DL & CO are tied up to Boeing, so zero chance of them getting any, but UA, US & NW and even AC could order it. By 2014 many things will be different, and IF the A350 thus become an airplane that shows equal or better performances than the 787 why would'n airlines, with the exception of the 3 above mentioned, go for it.

Bigger airlines suchs as AF, BA, LH and others Asian ones are ordering a mix of Boeing and Airbus frames. I can't see why that is going to be a problem.

Sure Boeing right now has a big lead over airbus, but 7 to 10 years from now Airbus can normally catch up.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 12:24 pm

I think you could see UA order them as well as 787s. I wouldn't count on it, but I could see it happening.
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airfrnt
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 1:13 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 18):

You are only a few years late. US and Northwest have both ordered the A330. As for chosing the 787 over the A330 in 2014... I'd be surprised if any of them would opt for the A330.

What does that have to do with the large fleets of 767s at US, DL, and CO?

My point was:

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 4):
. Most of the carriers already operate Boeing 777s, which won't be replaced any time soon. Most of them do have large 767 fleets that need replacement, and their options are going to be 330s or 787s.

Those 767s still need replacement. If the QR rumor is correct, it's more evidence that carriers that are looking for a smaller A300/A310/767 replacement won't be looking at the 350XWB. I don't completely discount the possibility of a 330 sale here as a interim lift solution, but I think the 350 because of the size factor will be limited.
 
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 1:41 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 18):
One more thing. Wasn't Kingfisher going to start up an American based airline? There you've got your US A350 based operator.

In reality that's a paper deal that means as much as all the ships registered in Liberia and Panama. You see N numbers on a/c from other parts of the world as well but I don't think of them as US based any more than I think Trump is a Brit.
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JAAlbert
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 2:32 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 6):
BTW, would there be any chance of AA, DL, and UA teaming up to negotiate with Boeing or Airbus for a consolidated mega deal?

I think this would be a violation of antitrust laws. There are restrictions against businesses teaming up to force another to buy at terms more favorable to the group than normal comptetition would provide.
 
ncelhr
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 4:29 pm

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 4):
The big problem with the A350 in the US market is that it is simply too large. Most of the carriers already operate Boeing 777s, which won't be replaced any time soon. Most of them do have large 767 fleets that need replacement, and their options are going to be 330s or 787s. Given the performance advantage of a 787 over a 330 (~20%) very few of them will opt for the 330.

I agree with you on the 787 vs. 330.
However, consider that both the 787 & 350 will make the 777 obsolete. In fact, the new generation of aircraft coming out, B787, A350, A380 and B748 are in an entirely new league with regards to consumption figures and the way oil prices are going, this will make a huge difference on airline results. Just like we saw MD11s disappear out of passenger revenue flights, all older generation aircraft will swiftly be sold by 1st tier carriers - hence the huge number of orders we are seeing at the moment.
 
ZKNBX
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 4:41 pm

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 4):
The big problem with the A350 in the US market is that it is simply too large. Most of the carriers already operate Boeing 777s, which won't be replaced any time soon.

Hmm. in 2013 many of UA's 777s will be 15 - 16 years old. Not old. But hardly young. You also assume that the 787 and A350 are head-to-head. They are NOT.

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 11):
Air Transat, USAirways and Mexicana seem to be the only possible candidates

Not sure about that. Lots of assumptions here.

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 12):
You miss one large factor. Assuming both the 787 and A350 are in service and available in 2014, the 787 will have been in service for over 5 years, with known performance figures and all the teething problems worked out. The A350 won't.

Indeed it won't. But it WILL have newer technology and compelling economics according to people who know a lot more about this than you or I.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 19):
The 777 was very successful. The A350 can replace it.

I tend to agree.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 19):
Boeing will do the Y3 but Airbus is already there.

- they are well on the way.The A350 - to a certain extent - side steps a direct competition with the 787, and there will be a case to be made with a number of airlines - to purchase both - just as SQ have done, as QR are in the process of doing, and as MANY AIRLINES HAVE DONE IN THE PAST - purchasing the A330 and the 777.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 22):
think you could see UA order them as well as 787s

. Could well be.

I think many A-netters are over playing the degree to which an airline's order for a 787 necessarily counts them out of the A350. Let's get over that one guys.
 
fraspotter
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 5:04 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 6):
BTW, would there be any chance of AA,

I remember reading awhile ago that AA has stated that they will no longer operate any more Airbus aircraft after their A300 aircraft are retired. I don't know if this is true or not, but I remember it being mentioned quite a bit around here awhile ago. Wouldn't that eliminate AA from even thinking about the A350?
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Glareskin
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 8:54 pm

Quoting FRAspotter (Reply 28):
I remember reading awhile ago that AA has stated that they will no longer operate any more Airbus aircraft after their A300 aircraft are retired. I don't know if this is true or not, but I remember it being mentioned quite a bit around here awhile ago. Wouldn't that eliminate AA from even thinking about the A350?

Expect the unexpected! See VS and QR orders. There will be a time that AA management doesn't care about the A300 rudder issue anymore and only remembers the A300 as a good solutions for there needs of that time. Maybe the A350XWB will fill a gap in there fleet.
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DAYflyer
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 9:50 pm

Quoting FRAspotter (Reply 28):
I remember reading awhile ago that AA has stated that they will no longer operate any more Airbus aircraft after their A300 aircraft are retired. I don't know if this is true or not, but I remember it being mentioned quite a bit around here awhile ago. Wouldn't that eliminate AA from even thinking about the A350?

Not neccessarily. Boards of Directors are concerned with profitibility and nothing else; they also have short memories. They will buy whatever is going to make them the most money in the shortest amount of time, normally.

That being said, I think for AA it has more to do with the way Airbus handled the whole JFK crash/rudder issue. They blamed AA publicly, and you never do that to a customer. As a result, AA will in all likelyhood go with all Boeing, costing Airbus $$Billions in lost orders from this customer over the next however many years.
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brilondon
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 9:56 pm

Quoting DIA (Reply 1):
Also, don't forget Air Transat...I'd bet they go A350 in the future.

Only if they can interchange them with British charter ailines.
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brilondon
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Thu Apr 26, 2007 10:38 pm

Quoting Dellatorre (Reply 21):
Of course AA, DL & CO are tied up to Boeing, so zero chance of them getting any, but UA, US & NW and even AC could order it. By 2014 many things will be different, and IF the A350 thus become an airplane that shows equal or better performances than the 787 why would'n airlines, with the exception of the 3 above mentioned, go for it.

I believe AC has committed its self to the B787 program by converting some of their options to orders in recent days.
Rush for ever; Yankees all the way!!
 
cygnuschicago
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Fri Apr 27, 2007 12:28 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 30):
That being said, I think for AA it has more to do with the way Airbus handled the whole JFK crash/rudder issue. They blamed AA publicly, and you never do that to a customer. As a result, AA will in all likelyhood go with all Boeing, costing Airbus $$Billions in lost orders from this customer over the next however many years.

AA signed an exclusivity agreement with Boeing well before the rudder incident. Even if Airbus had rolled over and claimed it was their fault, AA would still not buy Airbus. Although the EU voided that contract, it is still very much in place as a gentlemen's agreement. I'd be surprised if Leahy even bothers to send Arpey the latest glossy brochure, as it would be a complete waste of time.
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DAL767400ER
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Fri Apr 27, 2007 12:34 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 33):
AA signed an exclusivity agreement with Boeing well before the rudder incident.

And that agreement was rendered worthless as the EU massively objected to it, thereby killing that agreement. Although AA, like CO and DL, still has a Gentleman's Agreement with Boeing.
 
dellatorre
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RE: Does The A350 Still Have A Chance In N. America?

Fri Apr 27, 2007 5:21 am

Quoting Glareskin (Reply 29):
Expect the unexpected! See VS and QR orders. There will be a time that AA management doesn't care about the A300 rudder issue anymore and only remembers the A300 as a good solutions for there needs of that time. Maybe the A350XWB will fill a gap in there fleet.

Don't count on that!!!! AA & Airbus are like oil & water, they don't go together!!!!

AA's A300 fleet was some wild experience that actually worked for them while Boeing didn't offer anything, just that!!!!!

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