2wingtips
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A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Mon Apr 30, 2007 7:51 pm

Page 4 of the May 1 issue.

Up to 60 A333s have been offered to EK with deliveries from 2009. Tim Clark denies anything has been signed after EK's recent A350XWB fact finding mission to Toulouse. Clark said EK will be visiting Boeing for a 787 update in May. Interestingly, Clark says"while the A350 has the makings of a fine machine, he is disappointed it is so much later than the 787".
The article also goes on to say that" Airbus has been offering A330s at exteemely competitive prices in an effort to stem the flow of business to it's rival".

Sounds like EK are still very much undecided on 787 v 350 .
 
flyorski
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Mon Apr 30, 2007 7:54 pm

Quoting 2wingtips (Thread starter):
Sounds like EK are still very much undecided on 787 v 350 .

I could see them going both 350 and 787, with the larger 350s for larger routes, and the 787 for A330 routes..........
"None are more hopelessly enslaved, than those who falsly believe they are free" -Goethe
 
Lumberton
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Mon Apr 30, 2007 8:06 pm

60 A333s! Will the production ramp up of 9 A330s per month be enough? Air Asia Express is contemplating an order for 10 more, just after signing for 10/5. Perhaps this will be the year of the A330?
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
astuteman
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Mon Apr 30, 2007 8:35 pm

Quoting Flyorski (Reply 1):
60 A333s! Will the production ramp up of 9 A330s per month be enough? Air Asia Express is contemplating an order for 10 more, just after signing for 10/5. Perhaps this will be the year of the A330?

There could be an equally "difficult" scenario for Airbus and the A330 IMO, which might explain some of the mixed messages and posturing going on.

EK want 60 x A330's.
Other Airlines are bound to order some as the normal course of business
There is speculation about 60-70 commitments for A330F
and....
In 2wingtip's other thread, there's a strong flavour that QR might be looknig for BIG numbers of A330's to cover interim lift.

EK and QR, like SQ and QF, will want their frames in the next couple of years.
There's already a fairly large backlog to contend with anyway..

I wonder if Airbus are in a difficult juggling position of facing the prospect of having to agree to an insurmountable number of A330's, specifically in the next 2-3 years (i.e. in short-enough lead time to make a massive ramp-up logistically impossible), in order to secure 80 off QR A350's and 100 off EK A350's.

Those are big orders to turn your back on jusr because you can't ramp the A330 up in good time.
I speculate there's some immense A330 juggling going on at Airbus just now...
"60-70 A330F's, was it? Any chance you could wait a year or 2?"  Smile

Regards
 
a380heavy
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Mon Apr 30, 2007 9:13 pm

One thing that strikes me is that even after all this time the A330 seems to be a very desirable aircraft to have in an airline fleet.

I know that it has been discussed numerous times on here but you can't help feeling that a warmed over A330 with latest generation engines and other minor tweaks may have sold really quite well - probably better than the A330 in its current guise, until something like the A350 XWB came on line.

Ok so it wouldn't have been the perfect answer to the 787, but it may have prevented at least some of the orders from going Stateside.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing - shame it always arrives late!!!  Smile

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Stitch
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Mon Apr 30, 2007 9:48 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 3):
Those are big orders to turn your back on jusr because you can't ramp the A330 up in good time. I speculate there's some immense A330 juggling going on at Airbus just now... "60-70 A330F's, was it? Any chance you could wait a year or 2?"

Especially with the wild-card of Boeing possibly increasing 787 production in 2010 by dozens - or even scores - of units per annum which would then allow Boeing to provide both with 787s...
 
Lumberton
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Mon Apr 30, 2007 9:56 pm

Quoting 2wingtips (Thread starter):
Clark said EK will be visiting Boeing for a 787 update in May.

Hmmmm....could we see an order at Paris (or before) for 15 additional A380s along with this massive number of A330s, but no A350/787 decision? I would have thought that this staggering number of A333s (if this is true, of course!) would have been tied into an A350 order, but Clark's statement appears to leave some wiggle room--at least for now!
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
FCKC
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Mon Apr 30, 2007 10:31 pm

This Speculation about a future A330s and A380s order by EK , doesn't surprise me , as we are arriving at the end of the A380 compensation talks , between EK and Airbus.
Read in the French newspapers , both parties are very closed to a deal.
This deal according to the same French newspapers is NOT for Airbus to pay cash as compensation , but by large discount prices , meaning an order by EK for different Airbus types is imminent , probably at the Paris Air Show.
 
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clickhappy
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Mon Apr 30, 2007 10:33 pm

Sad that Airbus has to give the store away just to try to keep up with Boeing.

Instead of discounting they should have planned better.
 
NAV20
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Mon Apr 30, 2007 10:59 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 3):
wonder if Airbus are in a difficult juggling position of facing the prospect of having to agree to an insurmountable number of A330's, specifically in the next 2-3 years (i.e. in short-enough lead time to make a massive ramp-up logistically impossible), in order to secure 80 off QR A350's and 100 off EK A350's.

I think your hunch may well be right, Astuteman. But one has to add in Clark's reference to 'extremely competitive prices.'

Putting my contract-negotiating hat on, I don't see any way that Airbus could secure completely legally-binding orders for the A350XWB at this stage. No-one (not even Airbus) knows whether the promised performance figures can be achieved, because the design process is only just starting; there'll be a 'get out of jail' clause in any contract signed at this stage. And there's no guarantee, either, that Airbus can actually find the E10B. or so required to develop it.

On the face of it, selling aeroplanes now at bargain prices to secure orders for ANOTHER aeroplane that you're going to have to spend E10B. developing, which in any case won't be designed, delivered, and paid for before 2014 at the earliest, is a 'courageous' business strategy at the least. Airbus will be at risk of the A350XWB not meeting specification, or even just being late; in which case the airlines concerned could just cancel the A350 orders at no penalty, and walk away with their 'cost-price' A330s.......

If it were me taking the decisions, it's not a strategy I'd care to adopt. Fair to say, though, that if I actually WERE taking the decisions at Airbus, I don't know what strategy I WOULD adopt. Starting from the frankly dreadful position that the likes of Forgeard, Gallois, and Leahy have got them into.
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slz396
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Mon Apr 30, 2007 11:12 pm

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 8):
Sad that Airbus has to give the store away just to try to keep up with Boeing.

ROTFL-

You mean like the A330s Airbus 'gave away for free' to THAI?

Judging from the prices some airlines are known to have paid for their A330s some years ago, the price quoted by TG's CEO for the A330s he recently ordered was not really going to ruin Airbus, quite on the contrary even.

As has been said many times already, the A330 is in EXTREMELY HIGH demand right now, so Airbus has a good excuse to explain to customers why they are forced to raise the 'normal price', after which they then give a 'compensation discount', and the customer pays prices which were normal going rates only a few years ago.

Quoting FCKC (Reply 7):
This deal according to the same French newspapers is NOT for Airbus to pay cash as compensation, but by large discount prices meaning an order by EK for different Airbus types is imminent, probably at the Paris Air Show.

Airbus has repeatedly said their preferred method of compensation is through discounts on new orders, which is logic as it means no cash drain for them; it actually secures them extra revenue!

EK on the other hand has always maintained they wanted to be compensated through a deal which would not influence their very important A350XWB/787 decision, so combining the 2 points of view, and judging by the number of hints we have seen posted in the press lately, one can take it for granted EK is indeed likely to settle for a global deal with Airbus in which they'll get a good price and will order the biggest number of A330s ever ordered by a single customer as well as place a significant follow up order for A380s!

The A350XWB could then easily stay out of EKs fleet planning as the A330s EK will order will allow them to postpone any decision on 787s/A350s till both have been in service for some time.
 
keesje
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Mon Apr 30, 2007 11:44 pm

The A330 is the most efficient 300 seater accommodating a lot of cargo when you don´t need more then 5000nm (or a little further) .

I wondered how it compares to the 787-9 /-10 and A350-900. It probably is lighter and available soon instead of from 2013/14..

With 5000nm you can easily cover Europe & Asia (except Parts of Australia). For an airline that has already ordered lots of A332s, A340s, 777´s that isn´t much of a problem and 5000nm range from dxb: >85% of the worlds population. The lower CASM of the A333 is becoming increasingly relevant.

Commonality : I think the A330 is EK´s most popular wide body: 29 A332s, instrumental in their rapid network expansion.

Probably the same sentiments as SQ on 787 & A350XWb : nice aircraft, but what about 2008?

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Stitch
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Mon Apr 30, 2007 11:55 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
I wondered how (the A330) compares to the 787-9 /-10 and A350-900. It probably is lighter and available soon instead of from 2013/14..

From my data, the 787-9 is lighter then both the A330-200 and A330-300. The A350XWB-900 should also be lighter if extrapolated numbers are to be believed.

And with another thread saying Airbus cannot meet QR's desire for a large (multiple scores) A330 order, the A330 might be finding itself as constrained in the near-term as the 787 is.
 
dank
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 12:06 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 9):
Putting my contract-negotiating hat on, I don't see any way that Airbus could secure completely legally-binding orders for the A350XWB at this stage. No-one (not even Airbus) knows whether the promised performance figures can be achieved, because the design process is only just starting; there'll be a 'get out of jail' clause in any contract signed at this stage. And there's no guarantee, either, that Airbus can actually find the E10B. or so required to develop it.

It seems to me that consistently across the board right now the issue is whether Airbus can deliver the plane on time, not as much the specs (and whether they can offer enough extra lift in the meantime).

cheers.
 
Lemurs
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 12:53 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 12):
And with another thread saying Airbus cannot meet QR's desire for a large (multiple scores) A330 order, the A330 might be finding itself as constrained in the near-term as the 787 is.

It's a tough problem...you want to ramp up production, but you don't want to strangle yourself if the demand dries up quickly. Boeing has done this multiple times in the past, and it seems is being very conservative with the 787 and 737 production numbers to prevent history from repeating itself.

Certainly Airbus is smart enough to be concerned about this as well, with the A330 being in a very weird place right now. For the moment, it is a class-beating airplane that everyone would like to have a dozen more of, if they could afford it. The problem is, within 2 years it will be obsolescant, and within 5 years, entirely obsolete (as a new airplane) except for the 330F. Ramping up production too high for an airplane where the writing is clearly on the wall is just asking for labor and management trouble down the road.

Very tough problem, but then again, one I am sure they are very happy to have as compared to the A380/A350XWB problems!
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Stitch
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 1:03 am

Quoting Lemurs (Reply 14):
It's a tough problem...you want to ramp up production, but you don't want to strangle yourself if the demand dries up quickly...Ramping up production too high for an airplane where the writing is clearly on the wall is just asking for labor and management trouble down the road.

Well Airbus does have the A330F program to keep the line moving once A330 passenger demand declines. This assumes Airbus does not sacrifice the A330F program for a few years to produce passenger A330s as they have done with the A380F.

Where the problem could be is the suppliers. Depending on how much money they need to invest to meet a second production, the RoI might not pencil out without significant A330 or A330F sales in the near term.

Also, Airbus themselves have to be careful how hard they push the A330/A340 production line lest they end up with the snafu that Boeing had on the 737 line in 1997.
 
astuteman
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 1:31 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 9):
No-one (not even Airbus) knows whether the promised performance figures can be achieved, because the design process is only just starting

I've lost count of how many times I've seen this in print.
It's written like Airbus are a bunch of silicon chip manufacturers who've suddenly decided to turn their hand at making an aeroplane.  no 

The notion that the A350XWB specifications being presented to airlines are based on vapour are so ridiculous as to be laughable.
So here I go....

 rotfl   rotfl   rotfl 

Airbus have been working on the -XWB for over a year now.  yes 
AND the decision to switch a year ago would have been made by a trade-off vis-a-vis the old A350
You need a life...........

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
Well Airbus does have the A330F program to keep the line moving once A330 passenger demand declines.

Is the A330F destined to be put on the same back-burner as the A380F, until a glut of pax orders is dealt with?

Regards
 
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Stitch
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 1:57 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 16):
Is the A330F destined to be put on the same back-burner as the A380F, until a glut of pax orders is dealt with?

If I was Airbus, I would prefer that not to be the case as it opens the market to Boeing's 767F (including the new 767-200FLR) and 777F since it is unlikely in-service passenger A330s will be converted to freighters with demand so high.
 
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autothrust
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight Internati

Tue May 01, 2007 2:18 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 9):
No-one (not even Airbus) knows whether the promised performance figures can be achieved, because the design process is only just starting;

Strange, if they dont know if the performance figures can achieved how could they achieve the performance figures of the A380 which almost all airlines (which ordered it)confirmed ?Was it luck?:D


Btw i'm in a year the final M8 design freeze will be reached, so if they just started then they are damn fast designing the plane.  Yeah sure
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Stitch
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 2:54 am

To be fair, does Airbus know they can achieve the promised performance figures? I do not believe so.

But does that mean Airbus has no clue as to what performance figures they can expect from the A350XWB? I do not believe that, either.

After all, Boeing does not appear to have met the range figures they were promoting on their website for years, having revised them downward a few hundred nautical miles within the past six months. Mind you, they may find some or all of it once the plane enters flight test or over a few years of refinement. And we don't know why the range figures were reduced. Was it because the plane is overweight? Was it because airline fixtures have increased in weight over the past few years so Boeing has revised upward the values of the variables they use to calculate these ranges (with a corresponding drop in range)? Or was it just design trade-offs through talks with customers, who in the end decided to trade a bit of range for something else?
 
jfk777
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 3:15 am

Airbus seems to want to do anything to keep the A350 going, including taking a loss on A330 for now. The list of airlines being offered cheap lease looks like every airline that ordered more then 10 A380's.
 
MCOflyer
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 3:28 am

Very good offer made to EK. I hope they look at both planes very costly. Btw, What is US ordering the A350?

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keesje
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 3:55 am

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 20):
Airbus seems to want to do anything to keep the A350 going, including taking a loss on A330 for now. The list of airlines being offered cheap lease looks like every airline that ordered more then 10 A380's

We all know Airbus sells aircraft because of either 1) saving local jobs 2) dirt cheap prices 3) as compensation for the A380 delays 4) because Boeing didn´t want the customer 5) because Boeing chose not to be in the segment

About Airbus wanting to do anything to keep the A350 going, what would you buy as a long haul 300-320 seater for the next decade? a B777-200ER/LR, a B787-10/11?

Obviously Boeing is not so sure.. :
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...ing-studies-next-step-for-777.html
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pygmalion
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 4:14 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 22):
Obviously Boeing is not so sure.. :

Maybe thats because Airbus hasn't firmed up its designs yet... What is Boeing supposed to compete with??

Its not like Boeing doesnt have time. If they want to EIS a 777NG in 2015, they dont have to start till 2011.
 
r2rho
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 4:39 am

If demand for PAX 330s does pick up and the 330F has to be delayed as a consequence, it may have been a bad decision to close down the 300F line this year...

Quoting A380Heavy (Reply 4):
I know that it has been discussed numerous times on here but you can't help feeling that a warmed over A330 with latest generation engines and other minor tweaks may have sold really quite well

I vaguely remember hearing something about GE offering Airbus to install the GEnx on the A330, but I don't know how much truth is in that. I agree with you, but now it's too late to spend money on that. Besides Airbus is quite stretched thin already. Maybe they could incorporate some enhancements into the freighter version?
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 4:40 am

What do you think would happen if Boeing offered 60 772ERs at a similar price to the A333s Airbus is offering when Clark visits?  Wink
 
Lumberton
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 4:47 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 22):
Obviously Boeing is not so sure.. :



Quoting Pygmalion (Reply 23):
Maybe thats because Airbus hasn't firmed up its designs yet.

 checkmark 

Quoting from the article, this appears to be a nice problem to have:

Quote:
The 787-10's entry into service, originally expected in 2012 or 2013, is unlikely to be brought forward, however, given the existing 787 programme commitments.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
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SEPilot
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 5:12 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):
To be fair, does Airbus know they can achieve the promised performance figures? I do not believe so.

I would agree with Astuteman that Airbus has been designing planes long enough to know what they are doing. It's not a case of so much of not knowing what the plane can acheive so much as deciding exactly which configuration will suit the most number of customers. I'm confident that they know exactly what the consequences of each option under consideration is; the fact that the design is not yet frozen just means that they are still exploring some of those options. The fact that we don't know doesn't mean that they don't know.
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ua76heavy
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 5:12 am

Airbus needs to be very careful as to not sacrifice its future A350 sales. If it floods the market with A330s now, their (market) cost will be next to nothing when the A350 goes into service--supply and demand. In which case, it may be more affordable to other airlines to purchase used and fairly young A330s than new A350s. The cost of ownership advantage of the A350 will have to be tremendous to discourage an airline from going with the cheaper A330 (for at least x-number of years), especially when the economic life an airframe can be 20-25 years.
 
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Stitch
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 5:29 am

Quoting R2rho (Reply 24):
I vaguely remember hearing something about GE offering Airbus to install the GEnx on the A330, but I don't know how much truth is in that. I agree with you, but now it's too late to spend money on that.

In my opinion, the fact that the A330 without any new technology is doing so well bodes promising news for the 777 to continue to do well without any new technology, either.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 27):
The fact that we don't know doesn't mean that they don't know.

True, and my argument is not that Airbus is taking a wild-arse guess. I noted in my response that I expect Airbus has very good baseline numbers to work with, which they continue to refine as they determine exactly which construction process they wish to use. But that decision will affect the final performance numbers and I therefore believe is still too early for Airbus to state with absolute authority that an A350XWB-900, for example, will have an MTOW of exactly 584,000lbs and will fly exactly 8400nm to the inch.

But I also believe that Airbus has a very good idea of the MTOW and range spreads they expect to be able to offer and are no doubt discussing that with the airlines, perhaps under NDAs which is why the press (and by extension, "us") don't know that data.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 5:31 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 29):
But I also believe that Airbus has a very good idea of the MTOW and range spreads they expect to be able to offer and are no doubt discussing that with the airlines, perhaps under NDAs which is why the press (and by extension, "us") don't know that data.

This I totally agree with.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
BoomBoom
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 5:31 am

Quoting A380Heavy (Reply 4):
One thing that strikes me is that even after all this time the A330 seems to be a very desirable aircraft to have in an airline fleet.

But the residual values of the A330 will plummet when the 787 begins flying. Airbus has to discount the A330 up front to compensate buyers for this loss.

Quote:
I know that it has been discussed numerous times on here but you can't help feeling that a warmed over A330 with latest generation engines and other minor tweaks may have sold really quite well -

The 787 engines were too big for the A330 wing without some expensive modifications.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 10):
Airbus has repeatedly said their preferred method of compensation is through discounts on new orders, which is logic as it means no cash drain for them; it actually secures them extra revenue!

They would get MUCH more revenue if they didn't have to sell them at bargain basement prices.
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Stitch
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 5:37 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 31):
But the residual values of the A330 will plummet when the 787 begins flying. Airbus has to discount the A330 up front to compensate buyers for this loss.

Depends on the buyer and how they intend to use it. An airline like SQ, with very aggressive depreciation schedules, probably would demand "insulation" from an accelerated depreciation schedule, which is why their deal is a lease direct with Airbus. Just as Boeing did when they took the A343s, Airbus is shouldering the "devaluation risk". But just as Boeing sold a large number of 777s to SQ, so is Airbus selling them a large number of A380s and (almost assuredly) A350s, so that risk is mitigated to manageable levels.

Many A330 customers may very well decide to "recycle" their passenger frames to freighters, down the road. And even if they do not, chances are the A330 freighter-conversion market will be a vigorous one, so that could prop-up long term residual values, as well.
 
aminobwana
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 5:51 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 9):
NAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 4426 posts, RR: 10
Reply 9, posted Mon Apr 30 2007 07:59:25 your local time (5 hours 5 minutes 53 secs ago) and read 1772 times:


Quoting Astuteman (Reply 3):
wonder if Airbus are in a difficult juggling position of facing the prospect of having to agree to an insurmountable number of A330's, specifically in the next 2-3 years (i.e. in short-enough lead time to make a massive ramp-up logistically impossible), in order to secure 80 off QR A350's and 100 off EK A350's.

I think your hunch may well be right, Astuteman. But one has to add in Clark's reference to 'extremely competitive prices.'

Putting my contract-negotiating hat on, I don't see any way that Airbus could secure completely legally-binding orders for the A350XWB at this stage. No-one (not even Airbus) knows whether the promised performance figures can be achieved, because the design process is only just starting; there'll be a 'get out of jail' clause in any contract signed at this stage. And there's no guarantee, either, that Airbus can actually find the E10B. or so required to develop it.

On the face of it, selling aeroplanes now at bargain prices to secure orders for ANOTHER aeroplane that you're going to have to spend E10B. developing, which in any case won't be designed, delivered, and paid for before 2014 at the earliest, is a 'courageous' business strategy at the least. Airbus will be at risk of the A350XWB not meeting specification, or even just being late; in which case the airlines concerned could just cancel the A350 orders at no penalty, and walk away with their 'cost-price' A330s.......

If it were me taking the decisions, it's not a strategy I'd care to adopt. Fair to say, though, that if I actually WERE taking the decisions at Airbus, I don't know what strategy I WOULD adopt. Starting from the frankly dreadful position that the likes of Forgeard, Gallois, and Leahy have got them into.

The strategy of the "BARGAIN E330" to solve the A380 and A350 Marketing Problem is extremely risky, as NAV20
states. It has many characteristics of a Black Jack game, i.e. If one of the main bets fails, the game is over as the money is gone !


I advance my assessment that the "extremely attractive prices" are not cost prices fpr AIRBUS,
because being probably about 25-30% below a normal attractive price which allow them could be
10-15% profit, they will be well under the cost.

SCENARIO: , REFERRED TO EK:
53 = Confirmation of the existing 43 + 10 extra A380: delivered between 2009-2015 ?
60 = Immediate new order of 60 E330-300, delivery 2010-2012 ?
70 = delayed order for 70 A350. delivered from 2014-2018
30 = immediate order for 30 B787, delivered 2010-2012
75 = existing and ordered B777 (i am not sure if this is exact)
(65)= sale of older aircraft and/or antieconomic aircraft within the existing Fleet (this is an estimation)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
223= Total Wide body addition until 2018

At least, EK would try to sell the cheap bought E330 once B787, B748 and A350 become deliverable,
but then, who will want them if oil prices stay as the are or increase ?? And my opinion is that once
these thre new models will be available, the Hub market for Emirates will shrink progressively, not only
because of this but the competition of other would be hubs, as Qatar and SQ, so as some colleagues
suggested, they will try to sell a part of the A380

But this is not the worse case:
If AIRBUS fails to deliver the 70 E350 timely, they would be stuck with the A330 and compete with
them against the airlines which had bought B787 !! As they will not know about the A350 until it is too
late and half the world will be in similar straits, any chance to get B787 timely will be nil !

For QATAR, SINGAPORE and other the situation could be similar and if they sell some of the purchsded
the effects would magnify the aircrafts,

Seen from AIRBUS:
They will sell some hundred A380, but never break eve, therefore at a loss.
They will several hundred A330 at a loss too and a lot of A320 at razor thin profit. as now !

But on the flip side, they will need funding to cover the A380 cash flow and final losses, to
increase violentlythe A330 super-short term, as deliveries after 2011 make little sense, this
costing a lot of money, developthe A320 successor and of course, the development of the A350.

And they would risk that the A330 becomes unsellable sooner as they thought, because
the production of theB787 will be boosted, especially if Boeing see that the A350 runs into problems,
killing all the concept of the Bargain A330 !!

aminobwana
 
RIXrat
Posts: 672
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 6:01 am

If Airbus is offering the A330 as a lease object until the A350XWB comes in, what happens to them when the airline says thank you and returns them? We're looking at scores of airplanes. Would Airbus be able to sell them all on the used market?
 
EI321
Posts: 4788
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RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 6:02 am

Quoting Pygmalion (Reply 23):
Maybe thats because Airbus hasn't firmed up its designs yet

I suspect we will still be hearing this even after the damn plane has entered service!

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 31):
But the residual values of the A330 will plummet when the 787 begins flying.

Residual values of A330s will plummet whenever 787 & A350 production slots become readily available. But then so will the 777.
 
BoomBoom
Posts: 2459
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2005 2:26 am

RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight Internati

Tue May 01, 2007 6:08 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 35):
Residual values of A330s will plummet whenever 787 & A350 production slots become readily available. But then so will the 777.

Of course, the 787 will enter service next year; the A350-1000 not until 2015, if Airbus manages to keep on schedule.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 4970
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 6:13 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 35):
Residual values of A330s will plummet whenever 787 & A350 production slots become readily available. But then so will the 777.

They will fall, but not terribly dramatically. Remember that 787-A350 production will by no means meet demand for some time to come, so the production slots will be tight for a quite a while. Meanwhile, the A330 will still be among the more desirable of the other available planes, and considering that a lot of the 787's and A350's are going for expansion rather than replacement the market for used A330's and later for used 777's will still be healthy for some time. Just consider that right now the supply of used A330's or 777's is almost nonexistent.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
manni
Posts: 4049
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2001 1:48 am

RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 8:44 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 2):
Perhaps this will be the year of the A330?

Let's just call it the year of the widebody! Big grin

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 33):
SCENARIO: , REFERRED TO EK:
53 = Confirmation of the existing 43 10 extra A380: delivered between 2009-2015 ?
60 = Immediate new order of 60 E330-300, delivery 2010-2012 ?
70 = delayed order for 70 A350. delivered from 2014-2018
30 = immediate order for 30 B787, delivered 2010-2012
75 = existing and ordered B777 (i am not sure if this is exact)
(65)= sale of older aircraft and/or antieconomic aircraft within the existing Fleet (this is an estimation)

Where do you get these numbers from? There is no such a thing as a 'delayed' A350 order from Emirates. That's right Emirates never ordered the A350XWB. The 30 787s you are reffering to, are these the same 30 that have been credited to the DL, US, AF, LH and QR fleets. Emirates do not operate anti economic aircraft, wathever that might be.

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 33):
I advance my assessment that the "extremely attractive prices" are not cost prices fpr AIRBUS,
because being probably about 25-30% below a normal attractive price which allow them could be
10-15% profit, they will be well under the cost.

Oh dear  faint  Here we go again! A 25-30% discount on top of the normal approx. 40% discount? You've got to be kidding me. I guess you're not sure if this exact either. Right?

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 33):
and a lot of A320 at razor thin profit. as now !

So the A320s, with a 2000 aircraft backlog, are sold with a razor thin profit aswell?

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 33):
At least, EK would try to sell the cheap bought E330 once B787, B748 and A350 become deliverable,

EK only ordered the freighter version of the 748i.

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 33):
Seen from AIRBUS:
They will sell some hundred A380, but never break eve, therefore at a loss.
They will several hundred A330 at a loss too and a lot of A320 at razor thin profit. as now !

But on the flip side, they will need funding to cover the A380 cash flow and final losses, to
increase violentlythe A330 super-short term, as deliveries after 2011 make little sense, this
costing a lot of money, developthe A320 successor and of course, the development of the A350.

And they would risk that the A330 becomes unsellable sooner as they thought, because
the production of theB787 will be boosted, especially if Boeing see that the A350 runs into problems,
killing all the concept of the Bargain A330 !!

 whistleblower  That's enough Aminobwana, you've made your point. The only question that remains is... What did the French or Germans ever do to you?
SUPPORT THE LEBANESE CIVILIANS
 
EI321
Posts: 4788
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:43 pm

RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 6:50 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 38):
What did the French or Germans ever do to you?

I think its sad that some people are like this.
 
Lumberton
Posts: 4176
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 7:34 am

RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight Internati

Tue May 01, 2007 6:53 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 32):
Many A330 customers may very well decide to "recycle" their passenger frames to freighters, down the road. And even if they do not, chances are the A330 freighter-conversion market will be a vigorous one, so that could prop-up long term residual values, as well.

You very well could be correct here. However, IMO one must be careful not to take this "freighter conversion" scenario as an article of faith--especially for one particular aircraft. Yes, it makes a fine freighter, but there are other issues such as market timing, availability of competition (767BCFs, conversions, etc.), and world economic conditions that have to add to the mix. If one presumes healthy to exponential growth for air freight, then these aircraft will likely find another life. If not, what happens to all the "bridging" aircraft? Perhaps EK, QR, SQ, et al, would be wise to get Airbus to guarantee resale value, or take back in trade under the worst case?
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
astuteman
Posts: 6346
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 8:42 pm

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 31):
Quote:
I know that it has been discussed numerous times on here but you can't help feeling that a warmed over A330 with latest generation engines and other minor tweaks may have sold really quite well -

The 787 engines were too big for the A330 wing without some expensive modifications

That's not correct.
The Genx engines were accommodated simply by raising the front of the aircraft 2-3 inches, achieved by lengthening the front landing gear, achieved by re-profiling the nose (which improved cruise speed anyway), and fitting the same landing gear lower in the fuselage.

Regards
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:15 pm

RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 10:52 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 22):
We all know Airbus sells aircraft because of either 1) saving local jobs 2) dirt cheap prices 3) as compensation for the A380 delays 4) because Boeing didn´t want the customer 5) because Boeing chose not to be in the segment

 checkmark  But Keesje you missed 6) to assist the aerospace industries in other continents where they source parts for their planes, and possibly 7) by selling all their lines at a loss, to run an occult Keynesian strategy to inject liquidity into the whole European economy to get it out of its disastrously sluggish ways. Big grin
 
aminobwana
Posts: 923
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2007 7:32 am

RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Tue May 01, 2007 10:53 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 38):
Let's just call it the year of the widebody!

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 33):
SCENARIO: , REFERRED TO EK:
53 = Confirmation of the existing 43 10 extra A380: delivered between 2009-2015 ?
60 = Immediate new order of 60 E330-300, delivery 2010-2012 ?
70 = delayed order for 70 A350. delivered from 2014-2018
30 = immediate order for 30 B787, delivered 2010-2012
75 = existing and ordered B777 (i am not sure if this is exact)
(65)= sale of older aircraft and/or anti-economic aircraft within the existing Fleet (this is an estimation)

Where do you get these numbers from? There is no such a thing as a delayed A350 order from Emirates. That's right Emirates never ordered the A350XWB. The 30 787s you are referring to, are these the same 30 that have been credited to the DL, US, AF, LH and QR fleets. Emirates do not operate anti economic aircraft, whatever that might be.

* This is a SCENARIO (means Example!), not a statement of facts (there are none except the
related to the B777!!) basing on the hints of Tim Clark that assuming that he could agree the
conditions with Airbus, he would confirm the existing A380 orders, order additional 10 A380,
order 100 A350 and/or B787 and as discussed here, also ~60 A330 !
Why I make such example ?? To show what this would mean for EK and AB.
* Further, as discussed in this Forum, the idea of the A330 immediate order would give
time to EK to observe for a while the A350 progress, before ordering A350/B787 later Therefore
this would be, as I state, a "delayed order"!
* As also repeatedly stated, the new aircraft would substitute partially older, THEN anti-economic
aircrafts !!

Quoting Manni (Reply 38):
Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 33):
I advance my assessment that the "extremely attractive prices" are not cost prices fpr AIRBUS,
because being probably about 25-30% below a normal attractive price which allow them could be
10-15% profit, they will be well under the cost.

Oh dear Here we go again! A 25-30% discount on top of the normal approx. 40% discount?
You've got to be kidding me. I guess you're not sure if this exact either. Right?

I (and much less Tim Clark !!) ) would qualify "extremely attractive" a price only 10% or so lower
then the normal !! So 25-30% is a reasonable assumption !

Quoting Manni (Reply 38):
Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 33):
and a lot of A320 at razor thin profit. as now !

So the A320s, with a 2000 aircraft backlog, are sold with a razor thin profit aswell?

Yes, without doubt !; This term and statement appears repeatedly in the international Press and consultant opinions, and applies to single-aisle aircrafts generally

Quoting Manni (Reply 38):
Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 33):
At least, EK would try to sell the cheap bought E330 once B787, B748 and A350 become deliverable,

EK only ordered the freighter version of the B748

I have not said they bought B748i !! What is a fact that as soon the competing airlines would be
able to buy state-of-the art aircrafts as the B787/B748i or A350, Emirates could not compete
against these with the A330 and would need to sell them and as other airlines would do the
same, the prices will be very depressed.

Quoting Manni (Reply 38):
Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 33):
Seen from AIRBUS:
They will sell some hundred A380, but never break eve, therefore at a loss.
They will several hundred A330 at a loss too and a lot of A320 at razor thin profit. as now !

But on the flip side, they will need funding to cover the A380 cash flow and final losses, to
increase violently the A330 super-short term, as deliveries after 2011 make little sense, this
costing a lot of money, develop the A320 successor and of course, the development of the A350.

And they would risk that the A330 becomes unsellable sooner as they thought, because
the production of the 787 will be boosted, especially if Boeing see that the A350 runs into problems,
killing all the concept of the Bargain A330 !!

That's enough Aminobwana, you've made your point. The only question that remains is... What did
the French or Germans ever do to you?

Your unwarranted question, Manni, is a reflection of your (and many other) unwillingness to assess
the situation as a whole.
As I wrote in former postings, I have spent the bulk of my (long) professional life working in
leadership positions or being associate with 1st class German and French companies, I parted
with them in good relations, But I know very well how their government act, and this refers mainly to
the French one.

So, it is not about what the French and German did to me, but what they are doing NOW to the
taxpayers in Europe,by not adressing the problems and hide the situation behing a barrage of words
and give-aways.
 
norcal
Posts: 1507
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2005 1:44 am

RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Wed May 02, 2007 4:59 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 22):
2) dirt cheap prices

Dirt cheap prices maybe, but I believe they make a profit on their deals because of their dirt cheap manufacturing costs. Take for example the A330 and A340, two different planes for different missions, but the same assembly line and tooling.

Their manufacturing techniques are so good that Boeing is copying them with the 787 (and making some improvements) for their own use.

So there might be a degree of truth to #2  Wink

Cheap prices + cheap costs = profitability
 
BoomBoom
Posts: 2459
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2005 2:26 am

RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Wed May 02, 2007 5:18 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 31):
The 787 engines were too big for the A330 wing without some expensive modifications.



Quoting Astuteman (Reply 41):
That's not correct.
The Genx engines were accommodated simply by raising the front of the aircraft 2-3 inches, achieved by lengthening the front landing gear, achieved by re-profiling the nose (which improved cruise speed anyway), and fitting the same landing gear lower in the fuselage.

I'll defer to your expertise here.

My comment was based on an article I read quoting an Airbus employee. I looked through my files to try and find it and tried a search, but no luck.

Anyone else remember this?
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
Areopagus
Posts: 1327
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2001 12:31 pm

RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Wed May 02, 2007 6:23 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 41):
The Genx engines were accommodated simply by raising the front of the aircraft 2-3 inches, achieved by lengthening the front landing gear, achieved by re-profiling the nose (which improved cruise speed anyway), and fitting the same landing gear lower in the fuselage.

Were accommodated? What you describe sounds like the A350-pre-XWB design. Is that what you have in mind?
It sounds like a considerable modification if the context is freighter conversions of A330s.
 
pygmalion
Posts: 817
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2006 12:47 am

RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Wed May 02, 2007 6:25 am

Quoting NorCal (Reply 44):
Their manufacturing techniques are so good that Boeing is copying them with the 787 (and making some improvements) for their own use.

What A330/340 production process is Boeing using for the 787?????? Moving line? No that was the 737NG... Full composite one piece barrels? Nope. Hard tooling? Nope. One fixed position for final assy? Nope, the 787 is on a flex tooling moving line.

I know of NO Airbus A330/340 specialized manufacturing techniques that were copied for the 787... none.

Please enlighten all of us.
 
norcal
Posts: 1507
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2005 1:44 am

RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Wed May 02, 2007 8:13 am

Quoting Pygmalion (Reply 47):
I know of NO Airbus A330/340 specialized manufacturing techniques that were copied for the 787... none.

How about this one?




The global production system for the 787 that Boeing has developed is very similar to Airbus'. However Boeing has taken it to another level above Airbus with all the risk sharing partners.
 
dank
Posts: 926
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 11:35 am

RE: A330 Bargain Offer Made To EK-Flight International

Wed May 02, 2007 8:22 am

Quoting NorCal (Reply 48):
The global production system for the 787 that Boeing has developed is very similar to Airbus'. However Boeing has taken it to another level above Airbus with all the risk sharing partners.

 checkmark  Plus the addition of having the wiring done at the partners' sites.

cheers.