MCIGuy
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Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Wed May 23, 2007 5:54 pm

Seattle PI printed an article exactly a year ago that quoted Mike Bair as saying the 787-10 would probably be offered "within 12 months". It's been 12 months and still no 7810. I should think it would come any time now. If it doesn't get announced at Paris I'm going to think it's been back burnered. They could be quietly offering it now though, and would then likely announce a boatload of orders at Paris.  crossfingers 

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slz396
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Wed May 23, 2007 6:16 pm

I think the reason we haven't seen of the 787-10 yet, is because it just isn't such a good plane as it looked at first.

Don't get me wrong: I am not saying the 787-10 wouldn't be a fine plane!

What I am saying is that in the mean time there is a plane offered which seems like it can do all that the 787-10 promises too, but then just a bit better, more efficient, more comfortable and with some extra payload/range capabilities because contrary to the double stretched 787-10 this plane is actually aimed right at this spot of the market.

Simply stretching the 787-9 to the 787-10 would have been easy for Boeing and if the result would have been a plane better than the current planes in the seat class the double stretched 787 would end up, it would have been a very logic next step indeed, which is why Boeing talked so much about it till about a year ago.

But as Tim Clark has recently indicated, it has become obvious that the 787-10 will needs a range boost too to compete against the newly offered A350-900 and for that Boeing needs to do a lot more structural modifications to wing and landing gear plus they need to find more powerful engines and even then it remains to be seen if the result -albeit technologically possible- is still economically superior to compete head on with an all new product designed for this spot in the market...
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Wed May 23, 2007 8:15 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 1):

That's as may be, but considering that the -10 will just be a derivative, how many would they have to sell to make it worth it, 50, 70? The development cost will be relatively low so they don't have to sell that many for it to pay off.  Smile
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bringiton
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Wed May 23, 2007 8:23 pm

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 2):
how many would they have to sell to make it worth it, 50, 70?

The point isnt that , they arent lookin just to break even they are looking to match or exceed the A350-900 or in more appropriate terms they are looking to EFFECTIVLY compete with the a350-900 . Boeing IMO will wait it out on the 787-10 , as it is any descision on the 787-10 would most likely be preceeded by a descision to add capacity and/or increase the current 787 production rate sometims in the future (maybe post 2010) . Boeing needs to look at the 787 , see where they can shed margins , and where they can improve and then come out with a product strategy for follow up models . Ofcourse there life has been made a bit easier by the fact that the competition wont EIS till 2013 and 2014 (for the -800 varient) so considering a 3-4 year cycle they have some time to look into what they can offer .
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Wed May 23, 2007 8:41 pm

The short answer is: Wait until the Paris show, if there is an announcement to be made concerning the launch of the 787-10 or firm orders for the type, that is when we shall hear something. When the ""12 month"" announcment was made, it wasnt meant literally.....I think all that was intended is that the 787-10 is being studied and could be launched in the near-term future.

And, of course, the 787-10 will more directly compete with the A350XWB than the smaller members of the 787 family: Boeing has to get the 787-10 right, so why rush? Its a difficult launch decision, especially since the A350 family continues to be a ""moving target"" as far as specs and performance. There has been continued discussions as to whether the 787-10 will be a simple strech of the 787-9 or if Boeing will go with a more complicated program that some refer to as the 787-10ER....that issue must be resolved prior to launch, or will Boeing build both? Time will tell.

Lastly, the 787-10 will indirectly impact orders for the 777 family, so there is little advantage for Boeing to announce the launch the 787-10 until absolutely necessary.
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Wed May 23, 2007 8:51 pm

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 3):
Boeing needs to look at the 787 , see where they can shed margins , and where they can improve and then come out with a product strategy for follow up models . Ofcourse there life has been made a bit easier by the fact that the competition wont EIS till 2013 and 2014 (for the -800 varient) so considering a 3-4 year cycle they have some time to look into what they can offer .

 checkmark 

Not to mention the improved 787-10 will compete squarely against the 777-200ER, which is still selling pretty well, so no big rush in moving on the -10.

A year ago they didn't know what they'd be up against with the A350, and I imagine they still don't. All they do know is the EIS is a long time in the future, so no big rush in defining the -10 when the order books are full of -3/-8/-9.
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norcal
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Wed May 23, 2007 8:51 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 1):
Boeing needs to do a lot more structural modifications to wing and landing gear plus they need to find more powerful engines and even then it remains to be seen if the result -albeit technologically possible- is still economically superior to compete head on with an all new product designed for this spot in the market...

Wing no, landing gear yes. Higher thrust engines will be provided by the A350 development. There isn't a huge rush for Boeing to develop the -10. They are waiting to see if the range and payload capabilities that Airbus is claiming on the A350-900 make the final specs. Until then we probably won't hear much on the -10 front. The more capable Boeing makes the -10 the more it threatens the 772LR. If it turns out that the final specs of the A350 aren't as good as first claimed then Boeing would have unnecessarily hurt the 772LR.

Also, Boeing is very busy trying to get the -8, -9, and -3 out the door. Any work that Boeing is doing on the -10 is probably initial design studies (like Y3 might be right now). More detailed studies will probably be done in the coming years when engineering resources and lessons learned from the -8 can be applied to -10.

They have 5 years until the EIS of the A350. That is a lot of time to apply lessons learned and new technology from both the 787 and the A350. There simply isn't a big rush like it is made out on a.net. EK has been saying for years they will choose between the 787 and the A350, but nothing ever happens. They are waiting for the final specs on the A350 and Boeing's response to those specs.

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 2):
That's as may be, but considering that the -10 will just be a derivative, how many would they have to sell to make it worth it, 50, 70? The development cost will be relatively low so they don't have to sell that many for it to pay off.

Contrary to popular belief, the -10 as it is would be a great replacement for the 772 full filling nearly all the missions it already does. Boeing would like to be able to get away with the simple stretch because it is cheaper and it doesn't encroach on the 772LR as much. They would sell a lot more than 50-70. Maybe they want to do a -10 now and then a -10ER later.
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Wed May 23, 2007 9:20 pm

The latest information from Boeing is that they are in fact going to go with their original plan of a simple stretch with the same 540,000lb MTOW of the 787-9 which allows them to use all existing systems, including propulsion.

As Norcal notes, this is a perfect 777-200ER replacement offering the same 7500nm+ range with more LD3 positions and better efficiency as well as better payload over range capability, though it might not quite be as good as the 777-200LR in this regard, as well as not having the raw range. This is the model I expect to see launched this year and should have a number of orders behind it with a ~2012 EIS.

After that, Boeing, GE and RR will no doubt start working on the 787-9LR and 787-10ER models with stronger wings, undercarriage and powerplants. You're probably looking around 2014-2015 for these which puts them essentially on par with the A350's EIS.
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Wed May 23, 2007 9:20 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 5):
Not to mention the improved 787-10 will compete squarely against the 777-200ER, which is still selling pretty well, so no big rush in moving on the -10.

Selling well? Something like 16 orders the last 17 months is not selling well!
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Wed May 23, 2007 9:23 pm

Quoting Someone83 (Reply 8):
Selling well? Something like 16 orders the last 17 months is not selling well!

Bingo. The 772LR has pretty much replace the 772ER for all but add-on orders as it is more efficient and offers better performance on 772ER mission profiles, plus can fly mission profiles the 772ER can't.

This is why I believe a 540,000lb MTOW 787-10 is fine for the moment.
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Wed May 23, 2007 9:29 pm

Quoting Someone83 (Reply 8):
Selling well? Something like 16 orders the last 17 months is not selling well!

It's not bad, considering the production line is sold out for the next three or so years.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
After that, Boeing, GE and RR will no doubt start working on the 787-9LR and 787-10ER models with stronger wings, undercarriage and powerplants. You're probably looking around 2014-2015 for these which puts them essentially on par with the A350's EIS.

 checkmark 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Wed May 23, 2007 9:34 pm

Quoting Someone83 (Reply 8):
Selling well? Something like 16 orders the last 17 months is not selling well!

Since Jan 2006, the 772ER has 10 sales.
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Wed May 23, 2007 9:36 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
The latest information from Boeing is that they are in fact going to go with their original plan of a simple stretch with the same 540,000lb MTOW of the 787-9 which allows them to use all existing systems, including propulsion.

The simple stretch would have the best CASM of the 787 line, in todays high fuel prices it makes sense to not lug around a heavier frame for range that may not be needed. There are a lot of 772 and 773's (non ER and LR) out there that are the first 777's needed replacement.

Yes, a -9R and a -10R would be excellent but can wait. I even love the concept of the -8LR which would be the -9R wing, gear, and engines with a -8 body.
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Wed May 23, 2007 9:38 pm

I am not sure a double stretch is the best way to go. Just look at the 767-400 which didn't sell well. Maybe Boeing should just build a new 300-375 seater to replace the 777 using CFRP etc.

sv11
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Wed May 23, 2007 9:48 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 11):
Quoting Someone83 (Reply 8):
Selling well? Something like 16 orders the last 17 months is not selling well!

Since Jan 2006, the 772ER has 10 sales.

Even worse!

And AFAIK the orders have also been top-ups, and there is no reason why Boeing should need to protect the 777-200ER anymore
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Wed May 23, 2007 9:56 pm

Quoting JayinKitsap (Reply 12):
I even love the concept of the -8LR which would be the -9R wing, gear, and engines with a -8 body.

I expect a 787-8LR could be done at 540,000lb MTOW herself, but I tend to believe that airlines will want more capacity, which is why I believe the 787-9LR to be more likely (since the 787-9 is already an "ER" plane).

Quoting Sv11 (Reply 13):
I am not sure a double stretch is the best way to go. Just look at the 767-400 which didn't sell well.

The 767-400ER had worse range then the smaller 767-300ER and similarly-sized A330-200. The 787-10 will have range equal to the 777-200ER, will carry about the same number of people in 9-abreast, has more LD3 and pallet cargo positions, and can lift a similar payload and fly it farther then the 777-200ER at greater efficiency.

A 787-10 is no 767-400ER.  Smile

Quote:
Maybe Boeing should just build a new 300-375 seater to replace the 777 using CFRP etc.

They will. It will be called Y3, but it probably will not see service much before the end of the 2010's or the start of the 2020's. More likely Boeing will triple-stretch the 787 and release the 787-11 in the interim, and even that may not happen since it is likely the 777-300ER will sell strong with deliveries right through 2015 and even later.

The initial customers for the A350-1000 will be airlines like LH with large A340-600 fleets that don't operate the 777-300ER because it is likely airlines that do operate the 777-300ER, even if they choose the A350 family, will still be adding 777-300ERs over the next decade to meet demand while they wait for the A350 to become available so they won't begin adding A350-1000s in earnest until the 2020's.
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Wed May 23, 2007 10:08 pm

Quoting Sv11 (Reply 13):
I am not sure a double stretch is the best way to go. Just look at the 767-400 which didn't sell well. Maybe Boeing should just build a new 300-375 seater to replace the 777 using CFRP etc.

The main point is that Boeing doesn't have to make a rush decision.

Quoting Someone83 (Reply 14):
And AFAIK the orders have also been top-ups, and there is no reason why Boeing should need to protect the 777-200ER anymore

There's no reason to rush either. One can live quite well off top-off orders, as Airbus has shown with the A330.

It's 2007 now, there's no competition available till 2014 or 2015 and a lot can change in the next few years.
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norcal
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 1:49 am

Quoting Someone83 (Reply 14):
And AFAIK the orders have also been top-ups, and there is no reason why Boeing should need to protect the 777-200ER anymore

That is because the market is saturated right now. There is no need for a 777 replacement at this time. The need is for 767 and A300 replacements. The 200ER didn't slow down in sales because the A350 was announced. Another reason to hold off on the -10 is that Boeing can save production spots for the -8 and -9. If they do that then they will deny more of the 767 and A300 replacement market to Airbus. The -10 isn't needed until the A350 EIS.

Building the -10 as it is now doesn't protect the 200ER, it will destroy it. Boeing is protecting the 200LR right now by not building a -10ER. Very few 200LRs were bought for their pure range. Most were bought because they can do the 200ER missions more efficently or with more payload. A -10ER with 8500nm range will all but kill the 200LR. Boeing isn't ready to do that.
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 3:59 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 16):
There's no reason to rush either. One can live quite well off top-off orders, as Airbus has shown with the A330.

I assume you mean a340? The a330 has been gaining new customers last couple of years.
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 4:21 am

For what it's worth, this was in today's episode of The Wall Street Journal:

Quote:
The first test flight of Boeing Co.'s (BA) highly anticipated 787 could take place as early as late August, though it may not occur until well into September, the head of the program said Wednesday.

Mike Bair, 787 program chief, said during an investor conference that the company has "about a monthlong window" to test the first 787, but it has not set an exact date because that might cause the company to test the plane early. "The airplane will fly when it's ready to fly."

[...]

"In general we like the business model, it's working well," Bair said, referring to the 787 development program. He noted the company has had "some issues" with at least one supplier that was pressed for time. The issues caused "disappointment" for Boeing, but aren't seen as "chronic" problems.

Bair said other derivatives of the 787, named the 787-3 and 787-9, will hit the market in 2010. The 787-10 derivative of the plane was supposed to come out in the "back half of 2012," but has been pushed back to 2013 because of strong demand for the initial 787 models, he said.

Boeing Pleased With 787's Progress; Aug Test Flight Possible
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 4:33 am

Quoting Someone83 (Reply 8):
Selling well? Something like 16 orders the last 17 months is not selling well!

That's 5 more than A350XWB's that have been confirmed!  Wink
 
airfrnt
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 4:34 am

Quoting MCIGuy (Thread starter):
Seattle PI printed an article exactly a year ago that quoted Mike Bair as saying the 787-10 would probably be offered "within 12 months". It's been 12 months and still no 7810. I should think it would come any time now. If it doesn't get announced at Paris I'm going to think it's been back burnered. They could be quietly offering it now though, and would then likely announce a boatload of orders at Paris. crossfingers

Boeing is waiting for Airbus to firm up and commit to the A350. As soon as they know that, they will make the determination on if it is better to go with a 787-10, and slight touch ups to the 777, or if it is time for Y3.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 1):
I think the reason we haven't seen of the 787-10 yet, is because it just isn't such a good plane as it looked at first.

 Yeah sure

The 787-10 on paper is a great plane. The A350 on paper is a great plane. The question Boeing is trying to make is if the A350 warrants Y3 now, instead of Y3 later. But for them to actually make that call, Airbus has to show their cards and actually firm up (realistic) numbers for the A350. Airbus has repeatedly played the "don't order it now... wait till we finalize our plane, it will be much cooler" game and this time Boeing might just be playing it on them.
 
dank
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 4:35 am

I have a feeling that Boeing has quietly shopped the 787-10 to airlines (clearly they have been doing this with EK, for example). If someone is really interested, they'll launch it. So far, this hasn't been so. Boeing has to ask themselves, how many -10s can they sell using the -9 specs, how many can they sell if the go with specs more to EK's liking, how will it impact other sales (both of -10s to other customers and other 772s), how will it balance against the extra development costs, etc. But again, Boeing can say what they want about delaying it because of demand for other models, but if an airline like BA or EK said they were ready to commit, the model would be launched today (maybe Paris will change things, but you'd think that there would be some rumors about it...).

cheers.
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 4:36 am

Well waiting till later doesn't really hurt Boeing, since it allows them to continue to sell 777-200LRs and continue to refine the 787-10 in parallel with the A350's own development and movement towards EIS.
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 4:41 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 23):
Well waiting till later doesn't really hurt Boeing, since it allows them to continue to sell 777-200LRs and continue to refine the 787-10 in parallel with the A350's own development and movement towards EIS.

It's a good move by Boeing. Long term, if Boeing decides to launch Y3, the last thing they want is the 787 family overlapping with it. It's probably not bad for Airbus either. Airbus knows that either Y1 or Y3 is going to hurt them bad. A 787 style Y3 probably kills the A380 for good, puts a dampener of the appeal of the 350, but leaves the narrow body fight for a few more years out. Airbus on the other hand would have to respond immediately to Y1, or risk going out of business when A320 sales start to dry out.
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 4:43 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 23):
Well waiting till later doesn't really hurt Boeing, since it allows them to continue to sell 777-200LRs and continue to refine the 787-10 in parallel with the A350's own development and movement towards EIS.

Unless, of course, they lose 787 sales to the likes of BA, LH, EK, etc. who may not want to split orders between 350s and 787s. If they need to decide soon on planes in the 787-9 size range and don't know that Boeing will offer a 787-10 with the specs they want, they might go with Airbus instead. But they have to weigh all the costs together.

cheers.
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 4:48 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 19):
but has been pushed back to 2013 because of strong demand for the initial 787 models, he said.

About the same time as the A350-900 - it's direct competitor. Interesting stuff......

There's all sorts going on behind the scenes here, isn't there?
With the advent of the -XWB, it's no surprise to me that the 787-10 hasn't appeared yet.
There's still plenty of 787's to be delivered before 2013..  Smile

Regards
 
Silver764
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 4:48 am

The 767-400 was a niche plane for 2 customers. The 787-10 will be based for a broader range of potential customers.
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 4:52 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 21):
Boeing is waiting for Airbus to firm up and commit to the A350. As soon as they know that, they will make the determination on if it is better to go with a 787-10, and slight touch ups to the 777, or if it is time for Y3.

Exactly. Boeing is not going to finalize the top end of the 787 program until the A350 is a known quantity. And they are right to do so. They need to see where the numbers end up for the 900 and 1000 models and decide how they are going to compete against them.

I suspect they will build the 787-10 in some form regardless. Y3 is more speculative but I would suspect Boeing will have something new or vastly redone in the 10 across catagory once the A350-1000 is in a place to seriously threaten the 773ER. The 787-10 will be an good aircraft for what they want it to do. IMHO I think they will make it competitive with the A350-900 and then take on the A350-1000 with something else.
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 4:52 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 26):

There's all sorts going on behind the scenes here, isn't there?
With the advent of the -XWB, it's no surprise to me that the 787-10 hasn't appeared yet.
There's still plenty of 787's to be delivered before 2013.. Smile

Yep. The article mentions that one of the reasons the 787-10 hasn't solidified yet is simply because there is so much demand for the -8/-9.

Quoting Silver764 (Reply 27):
The 767-400 was a niche plane for 2 customers. The 787-10 will be based for a broader range of potential customers.

And I don't doubt that Boeing has on occasion regretted building the 767-400.
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 5:00 am

Quote:

"Beating the performance of the 737 and A320 is not easy to do," said McNerney. "We don't see a path ... until we see what the A350 is or isn't."

That says it all.
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 5:18 am

The 787 and A350 are only a few inches different in cross-section. There is zero chance that Boeing would spend $10B+ to develop a new aircraft family to compete with the A350 when they already have a new aircraft family of the same size.

If there ever is a Y3, it won't be anywhere near the 787/A350/777 in size. A Y3 cross-section of less than about 260 inches makes no sense.

To compete effectively against the A350, the 777-300ER would need to lose roughly about 80,000 lbs of OEW. That's not going to happen.

A 787-10 is a no-brainer. The only questions are the specs and the timeline. Boeing were hoping to keep the 787-10 to the 540,000 lbs MTOW of the 787-9. The airlines were not enthused. The other options are to increase the MTOW to about 560,000 lbs and range to about 8000nm or to develop a new undercarriage and increase the MTOW to about 600,000 lbs.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 6:05 am

Quoting Dank (Reply 22):
I have a feeling that Boeing has quietly shopped the 787-10 to airlines...If someone is really interested, they'll launch it. So far, this hasn't been so.

That Boeing has said they are looking to launch the plane as originally planned makes me believe that they have found interest in it. And that the 777-200ER replacement market is really just beginning, many airlines who want the 787-10 are probably happy to wait for it because their 767-300ER replacement needs are much greater so they'd rather have the 787-8 now.

Quoting Dank (Reply 25):
(Waiting doesn't hurt Boeing) Unless, of course, they lose 787 sales to the likes of BA, LH, EK, etc. who may not want to split orders between 350s and 787s. If they need to decide soon on planes in the 787-9 size range and don't know that Boeing will offer a 787-10 with the specs they want, they might go with Airbus instead. But they have to weigh all the costs together.

But even Airbus' specs are just goals at this point. I'm not saying that because of the "paper airplane" argument nonsense, but because Airbus is still over a year away from their own M8(?) "firm and final" configuration. The 787's specs changed as recently as a few months ago. How will the A350's change in the next five years?

And anyway, chances are anyone ordering a 787-10 or an A350 has a generous cancellation clause, so whomever comes up with the better planes will get the orders in the end.  Smile
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 6:12 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 29):
And I don't doubt that Boeing has on occasion regretted building the 767-400.

Untrue.....while of course Boeing had hoped to sell more 764ERs, the development of the 764ER was a low cost development program (which was part of the problem, if Boeing investment more are developed a more advanced and capable airplane with longer range (like the still born 764ERX, maybe the 764ER would have sold better) which kept two of Boeing's most loyal annd biggest customers happy. CO was not interested in replacing its DC10-30s with 772ERs on a one for one basis (it would have been too much capacity for most routes) and DL determined that the 772A would be far too much airplane to replace the L1011s on domestic/Hawaiian routes. Both airlines needed something inbetween the 763 and 772, thus the 764ER; remember that Airbus would have been thrilled to sell their very capable A332/A333 aircraft to both CO and DL......if the 764ER accomplished anything, it prevented DL and/or CO from placing an order in Toulouse.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 31):
A 787-10 is a no-brainer. The only questions are the specs and the timeline. Boeing were hoping to keep the 787-10 to the 540,000 lbs MTOW of the 787-9. The airlines were not enthused. The other options are to increase the MTOW to about 560,000 lbs and range to about 8000nm or to develop a new undercarriage and increase the MTOW to about 600,000 lbs.

Exactly.
 
dank
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 8:06 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 32):
That Boeing has said they are looking to launch the plane as originally planned makes me believe that they have found interest in it. And that the 777-200ER replacement market is really just beginning, many airlines who want the 787-10 are probably happy to wait for it because their 767-300ER replacement needs are much greater so they'd rather have the 787-8 now.

Maybe my phrasing was a bit non-specific. What I meant was that I'm sure that if someone was interested to the point of being ready to buy, Boeing would launch it. Nobody appears to be at that point yet. But if an airline said that they would order it if it was offerred, I have no doubt Boeing would launch it (at the current specs, that is, not at the ones that EK has talked about since that would require a more significant investment at this point, that Boeing has yet to indicate a desire to make at this point in time).

Quoting Stitch (Reply 32):
But even Airbus' specs are just goals at this point. I'm not saying that because of the "paper airplane" argument nonsense, but because Airbus is still over a year away from their own M8(?) "firm and final" configuration. The 787's specs changed as recently as a few months ago. How will the A350's change in the next five years?

Sure, both specs will change. I am just saying that there are potential negatives to not launching the -10 soon (but the positives probably outweigh those). Not having a -10 may limit sales to some customers that are in the market for a plane that will cover the space that 330s/340s/772s fill (and if SQ signs a firm order for 359s, not having a better speced -10 may have already hurt Boeing in part of a sale, although at least not hurting their sales for the 789s since SQ was willing to split the order). It will be interesting to see how carriers like BA, LH, EK, etc. go, which may help clarify how strong a factor this may be. Paris and the rest of this year should be interesting.

cheers.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 31):
A 787-10 is a no-brainer. The only questions are the specs and the timeline. Boeing were hoping to keep the 787-10 to the 540,000 lbs MTOW of the 787-9. The airlines were not enthused. The other options are to increase the MTOW to about 560,000 lbs and range to about 8000nm or to develop a new undercarriage and increase the MTOW to about 600,000 lbs.

 checkmark  Boeing's in a bit of a good position, but now the calculations are being made between how much money can be made by increasing to 560,000 lbs, staying the same, or going to 600,000 lbs. And the calculations have to include what is the likelihood that airline x will even order it given that they get it to those different specs (e.g. even getting the 600,000lbr wouldn't guarantee a sale to EK, just make it more likely). And those calculations obviously have to be made with how the long term strategy looks (i.e. do they look to add a long range 789 with similar specs, do they make a -11, how does Y3 fit in, etc.).

cheers.
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 8:16 am

Quoting Dank (Reply 34):
those calculations obviously have to be made with how the long term strategy looks (i.e. do they look to add a long range 789 with similar specs, do they make a -11, how does Y3 fit in, etc.).

Right, except that any decisions about Y3 will be taken only after Boeing decide more about the 787 family, not the other way around.
 
474218
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 8:25 am

Quoting Someone83 (Reply 8):
Selling well? Something like 16 orders the last 17 months is not selling well!



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 11):
Since Jan 2006, the 772ER has 10 sales.

So why would Boeing invest a lot of money developing a new airframe, for a market that does not seen to exist at the present time?
 
bigjku
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 8:31 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 35):

Right, except that any decisions about Y3 will be taken only after Boeing decide more about the 787 family, not the other way around.

 checkmark 

I agree totally. The 787 family will be fully planned out before Y-3 gets nailed down. The 787-10 is crucial in this because the 10 will define the ER and LR versions of the type I think. Once they figure out what the biggest and longest range versions of the 787 are then Boeing can decide if there is a market sufficient for something above it in the form of Y-3.
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 8:48 am

Quoting 474218 (Reply 36):
So why would Boeing invest a lot of money developing a new airframe, for a market that does not seen (sic) to exist at the present time?

The nearly non-existent demand is for aircraft with the CASM of the 777-200ER/LR sized larger than the A321. The 787-10 would have a much, much lower CASM and for that there would be demand. That the 787-10 will have much lower production costs and sales prices than the 777-200ER/LR makes for the former even more attractive to the airlines.

Look at it this way: Would you pay $40K for a car that uses 12 liters of fuel per 100km when you know the manufacturer will soon be offering a slightly more roomy car for $25K that is a bit faster, more comfortable, more reliable, needs less maintenance, and uses only 8 liters per 100km? A few buyers will who need something right away, but most will wait.

If I were running an airline, I wouldn't buy 777s if I could wait for 787s.
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 10:06 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 38):
If I were running an airline, I wouldn't buy 777s if I could wait for 787s.

Or you could do like NZ who according to the ILFC 401K filing apparently have the opportunity of returning their 4 leased 772's in 2012/2013 right about the time that the 787-10 might EIS according to Bair.
 
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 12:11 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
The latest information from Boeing is that they are in fact going to go with their original plan of a simple stretch with the same 540,000lb MTOW of the 787-9 which allows them to use all existing systems, including propulsion.

As Norcal notes, this is a perfect 777-200ER replacement offering the same 7500nm+ range with more LD3 positions and better efficiency as well as better payload over range capability, though it might not quite be as good as the 777-200LR in this regard, as well as not having the raw range. This is the model I expect to see launched this year and should have a number of orders behind it with a ~2012 EIS.

At the same MTOW as the 787-9, it is unlikely the 787-10 could hit 7500 nm+ range. 7200 nm is more like it.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 35):
Right, except that any decisions about Y3 will be taken only after Boeing decide more about the 787 family, not the other way around.

I agree.

My theory is that once you make Y3 big enough not to overlap with the 787, it becomes so large that it is no longer feasible to build it as a twin... but not why you might think. I don't doubt a 135 klbs engine could be built. I doubt it could be built profitably, since the larger the aircraft, the smaller the market... and one of the few drawbacks of a twin is that you only sell two engines for every airframe. Look at the massively popular GE90: that program isn't even going to break even for another decade or so, let alone make a decent return on investment. As such, much of the Y3 decision (what it can be, and whether or when it will be launched) lies with the engine makers rather than Boeing, since they hold the key enabling technology.

Just like the Y1 story, ain't it?
 
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Stitch
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 12:16 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 40):
At the same MTOW as the 787-9, it is unlikely the 787-10 could hit 7500 nm+ range. 7200 nm is more like it.

I only know what Boeing tells me.  Smile

Seriously, even 7200nm should be good enough, especially since it is likely the 787-10 will haul more payload that far then a 777-200ER will (if perhaps not as much as a 777-200LR).
 
aminobwana
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 11:27 pm

Quoting MCIGuy (Thread starter):
Seattle PI printed an article exactly a year ago that quoted Mike Bair as saying the 787-10 would probably be offered "within 12 months". It's been 12 months and still no 7810. I should think it would come any time now. If it doesn't get announced at Paris I'm going to think it's been back burnered. They could be quietly offering it now though, and would then likely announce a boatload of orders at Paris.

The answer to why the decision B787-10 was delayed was given May 23 by Jim MxNerney in URL:
"Boeing affirms targets, demurs on single-aisle replacements"
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...C33%2D4A239AD4D0C9%7D&siteid=yhoof
extracts:

"Beating the performance of the 737 and A320 is not easy to do," said McNerney. *We don't see a
..path ... until we see what the A350 is or isn't.*
Airbus has redesigned its 787 competitor, the A350 XWB, to be wider, accommodating more passengers.
That plane will also be formed from composite materials.
"

"We're focusing on the 787, and then we are going to step back and see if we drew the line in the right way,in terms of production and an outsourced, worldwide supply chain"

"Thomas Enders, CEO of EADS, also has said an A320 replacement was not imminent

In clear text: They are looking at what AB is doing with the A350, not only the "1,000" but also the
"800/900", which presently exist only incompletely on paper, the final design of the "800/900"
announced for October 2008, the one of the "1,000' logically later (I have no data). As the design
of the A350 was began when the B787 was already well advanced, AB, trying to compensate the
time differential of at least 6 years,offered higher capacity combined with range, especially for the
"1,000" So it is logical that now Boeing is "stepping back", to see how much of the AB promises is real !!

Once they are able to assess this, they will decide:
* to redesign the B787-10 (11?)
* or attack the new 1-aisle successor of the B737, which is not "soo" urgent due to to the Airbus
..announcement of the not-imminence of the B320 successor

The open question is: Which the relatively scarce info which Airbus is able to provide regarding the
A350-1,000(lets consider as a fact that anything AB is telling its potential customers is known by
B., and viceversa!).will Boeing already be convinced the AB is able to deliver this aircraft within a
reasonable time??

Therefore, I do not agree with if that the B787-10/11 doesn't get announced at Paris, it's
been possibly back burnered. because In such case, I assume they will postpone their
decision a few months, and tell so to their potential customers, which, as several including
Tim Clark have stated, will not decide in Paris.


Mc Nerney also stated "days after it unveiled the production line and systems for its 787 Dreamliner,
its composite-built, twin-aisle, long range aircraft. The heavily outsourced manufacturing process is new
to Boeing and the smooth production of the plane with 567 orders so far, is critical to the company's
success."


By the way: the "paper plane" argument, ridiculed by some, is not a big issue when compared with
another"paper plane" of the competition, but it is a very material material one in the very UNUSUAL
case when compared with a nearly flying one as the B787 basic model, especially when the
perceived ability of AB to develop timely such a difficult project is hampered by the negative precedent
of the A380, their internal turmoil and the funding problems of AB. This is obviously what McNermey
meant by "until we see what the A350 is or isn't"!!)

When designing the B787-1000, Boeing will already have behind them above (in an important %)
technical and (nearly all) logistical difficulties, which are in a good percentage common to all
sub-models of the B787. AB in turn, which less initial experience with large composites as Boeing
has (as publicly admitted by Gallois in the Power8 post-presentation press conference) , must still
beginning to address them.
Therefore, jointly with the stated in the precedent paragraph, this shall be a clear and logical support
for the the statement that Boeing would need several years less than AB to develop the "11", much
more so if it is only the "10"

Aminobwana
 
Silver764
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Thu May 24, 2007 11:41 pm

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 29):
And I don't doubt that Boeing has on occasion regretted building the 767-400.

hard to say, reading must discussions on the 764 it seems that development was minimal and I don't think I can recall CO or DL regretting buying. I imagine DL wishing that had converted options considering needs international planes but with 911 everything changed. I'll be on a newly international configured one today.
 
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Revelation
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Fri May 25, 2007 12:12 am

Quoting Dank (Reply 25):
Unless, of course, they lose 787 sales to the likes of BA, LH, EK, etc. who may not want to split orders between 350s and 787s. If they need to decide soon on planes in the 787-9 size range and don't know that Boeing will offer a 787-10 with the specs they want, they might go with Airbus instead. But they have to weigh all the costs together.

It's been pretty interesting to see these very airlines spending a fair amount of time talking about ordering airplanes and not doing it. I suspect they too are waiting to find out what "the A350 is or isn't".

You are also not pointing out that these airlines may be interested in the smaller end of the market, where the A350 nor Airbus as a whole has nothing to offer. I expect EK and LH to go Airbus and BA to go Boeing. Also it is quite possible these airlines could decide to split their order as all will have large enough fleets to operate 787 on the smaller end and A350 on the larger end if they choose to do so. For instance EK is operating A340 and B777 now, BA is operating B767 and B777 now, and LH is operating A300, A330 and A340 right now.
Inspiration, move me brightly!
 
jacobin777
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Fri May 25, 2007 12:31 am

Quoting Sv11 (Reply 13):
I am not sure a double stretch is the best way to go. Just look at the 767-400 which didn't sell well. Maybe Boeing should just build a new 300-375 seater to replace the 777 using CFRP etc.



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 31):

If there ever is a Y3, it won't be anywhere near the 787/A350/777 in size. A Y3 cross-section of less than about 260 inches makes no sense.

...given the nature of a CRFP monolithic fuselage-which is quite stable/rigid compared to current aluminium frames, it would probably be easier to stretch the B787 to a hypothetical B787-11X of around 73-75 meters...I think that would be as far as the B787 could go in terms of length....but it would certainly knock the socks off of the B773ER and certainly be very competitive to the A350-1000..
"Up the Irons!"
 
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Stitch
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Fri May 25, 2007 2:23 am

Perhaps Boeing is now considering a dual-track development of a 787-10 and a 787-10ER?

The 787-10 would MTOW at or around 540,000lbs and would use all existing systems of the 787-9, just a bit longer. Range will be between 7200nm and 7500nm, making her the perfect 777-200ER replacement.

The 787-10ER would MTOW above 560,000lbs (probably closer to 600,000) and would require strengthening of the undercarriage and perhaps modifications to the wingtip extensions, as well as improvements to the GEnx-1Bx and Trent 1000-x engines. It also would need development of enhanced fuel tankage to offer a range between 7500nm and 8500nm to take the fight directly to the A350-900.

We could also even see a 787-10LR with a range of 9500-10000nm to fight the A350-900R and to complement a probable 787-9LR (which will also MTOW over 560,000lbs).

A later EIS would allow Boeing to reap whatever they learn from the 787-8 and (especially) 787-9, analyze the final configuration of the A350 and directly address it's strengths, and provide a complete family at one time to address both the 777-200A and 777-200ER replacement market and extend the offerings for the A330-300 market (the 787-9 does that fine now, but a 787-10 would offer even more options to A330-300 operators).
 
bringiton
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Fri May 25, 2007 2:27 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 46):

dats pretty much how i see it although i dont see a move to offer the basic -10 first and then the LR unless they think that they can score some nice large sized orders for the 7200-7500 range aircraft . I really dont see an airline ordering the 7200nm -10 when in the same year airbus has a product which seats nearly as many people and does 8000-8500nm .

Just my 2 cents
 
Rheinbote
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Fri May 25, 2007 2:37 am

Boeing Pushes 787-10 Back to 2013
http://www.heraldnet.com/stories/07/05/24/100bus_787001.cfm

...the market may need more 200- to 300-passenger jets over the next 20 years than the company thought when it originally devised the 787. "It feels like the pie is bigger than we anticipated," Bair said. In fact, Bair said, demand has been so great that Boeing has now pushed back the launch of a fourth version of the 787, the longer range 787-10.

Boeing initially had hoped to have its 787-10 enter service by late 2012. That date has slipped into 2013 due in part to the heavy production schedule to meet demand for the versions of the 787 already available.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Well, It's Been A Year, Still No 787-10

Fri May 25, 2007 2:37 am

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 47):
I really dont see an airline ordering the 7200nm -10 when in the same year airbus has a product which seats nearly as many people and does 8000-8500nm .

And yet many airlines fly the A330-300 instead of the more capable 777-200ER because they don't need the extra range (and extra structure to support that range) and therefore it ends up more efficient overall to fly the A333 even if you also fly 777-300ERs.

So if you don't need 8500nm of range and the 787-10(A) will offer lower operating costs while meeting your needs, I think airlines will be more inclined to choose it - especially if they also are considering the 787-8 and 787-9.

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