tommybp251b
Posts: 328
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2006 5:21 am

What If DUS Would Have A Longer Runway?

Sat May 26, 2007 5:43 am

Hi everybody!

We all know that the two runways of DUS are too short to handle for example a fully loaded 747. What would be, if they would have runways like FRA?

So here are some questions:

1. Would it be a big international Gateway like FRA, LHR or CDG?

2. Which airlines would we see there? I think JL and ANA would be there due to the big Japanese cummunity in this area.

3. How big would LH be in DUS then? Would we see their whole fleet at DUS or at least a part of the widebody fleet?

4. Would it be a Star Alliance Hub?

Thx for answers.

Best regards. Tom
Tom from Cologne
 
stylo777
Posts: 1996
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: What If DUS Would Have A Longer Runway?

Sat May 26, 2007 5:56 am

I don't think that the runway is really the main reason why airlines like NH or JL don't serve DUS. There is already traffic with heavies like all LT A330's, EK B777 and sometimes TK A340. So the current runways could easily handle a B747.

DUS is too close to FRA so I don't see a hub here for LH in the future. The only future growth will be in point-to-point flights to several European cities, but neither transatlantic nor to Asia (regarding LH).
In NH's current European network there are only 3 destinations: FRA, CDG and LHR. I think they don't look forward to a 'less atractive' destination like DUS compared to other European metropolis like BCN, FCO, MAD and so on.
 
Joost
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RE: What If DUS Would Have A Longer Runway?

Sat May 26, 2007 6:00 am

Of course, what-if questions are the most difficult ones to answer.

However, my opinion is that DUS is limited by it's infrastructural and environmental-political capacity rather than by it's potential.

I doubt that it would become a major hub like FRA, CDG or MUC. In the current shape of the industry in Europe, we have the bizarre situation that all primary hubs (LHR, FRA, CDG, AMS; except MAD) face more or less capacity problems, but many other cities that used to be important international gateways (BRU, ZRH, VIE) see reductions in the international network. Having said that, I doubt that even if DUS had more capacity from now on, they would not become a StarAlliance hub. They'd probably pick ZRH before.

We might well see more carriers. Japanese carriers are possible, and even more so American, Middle-Eastern and Chinese (look at the NUE-thread currently running too, for example). Of course, you already have transatlantic flights with Privatair and LTU, and EK to DXB, but they could handle more.
 
Notarzt
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RE: What If DUS Would Have A Longer Runway?

Sat May 26, 2007 7:29 am

Quoting Stylo777 (Reply 1):
I don't think that the runway is really the main reason why airlines like NH or JL don't serve DUS.

Well... officially, that was the reason JAL suspended operations to DUS in the mid-1990's... and why ANA never commenced services. Actually, Dusseldorf has very close business relations to Japan and a very large Japanese community as well. They would prefer to fly into DUS instead of going to FRA and take a bus or car for another 2 hours.
 
stylo777
Posts: 1996
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: What If DUS Would Have A Longer Runway?

Sat May 26, 2007 7:55 am

Quoting Notarzt (Reply 3):
They would prefer to fly into DUS instead of going to FRA and take a bus or car for another 2 hours.

and what about the plane of LH from FRA to DUS or even from CDG  Wink
 
DAL767400ER
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RE: What If DUS Would Have A Longer Runway?

Sat May 26, 2007 8:01 am

An extended runway would still not eliminate all those darn NIMBYs around DUS that seem to throw a hissyfit when Lufthansa brings in an A320 instead of an A319  Wink .
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: What If DUS Would Have A Longer Runway?

Sat May 26, 2007 3:56 pm

Quoting TommyBP251b (Thread starter):
We all know that the two runways of DUS are too short to handle for example a fully loaded 747. What would be, if they would have runways like FRA?

It's plenty long for the 787-8 which is all they really need.
 
stylo777
Posts: 1996
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: What If DUS Would Have A Longer Runway?

Sat May 26, 2007 3:56 pm

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 5):
An extended runway would still not eliminate all those darn NIMBYs around DUS that seem to throw a hissyfit when Lufthansa brings in an A320 instead of an A319 Wink .

forgive my ignorance, but what is NIMBY?
 
cobra27
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RE: What If DUS Would Have A Longer Runway?

Sat May 26, 2007 4:41 pm

NIMBY Not In My Back Yard
 
Joost
Posts: 1841
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RE: What If DUS Would Have A Longer Runway?

Sat May 26, 2007 5:30 pm

Quoting Stylo777 (Reply 7):
NIMBY

NIMBY's are people that want to have the benefits om a certain public (mostly infrastructural) service, but do not want to want to have the disadvantages that come with it, like noise. So therefore, Not In My BackYard.

NIMBY's are well-known in aviation (aircraft noise), railway or highway construction, dike enlargement, landfill designations, you name it. Basically all project that have a general benefit for the society, but affect some parts of it. NIMBY's seem to be a global phenomenon, and that isn't strange - when you don't have benefit from a runway extension (because, for example, you never go to Japan anyways) but the value of your property does decrease because of the extra noise, it's logical that you start to protest. Therefore, in many countries, NIMBY's are compensated for these external effects.

Interesting enough (at least in the Netherlands), quite often it seems to be the case that the people that complain most, are the people that were well aware of possible noise probles before buying the property. There is a guy that files a noise complaint to AMS every day (as a way of life)... and he bought the house 4 years ago, moving from a house on the edge of a natural reserve, to a house on a few kilometers from one of the AMS runways.
 
stylo777
Posts: 1996
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: What If DUS Would Have A Longer Runway?

Sat May 26, 2007 6:12 pm

Quoting Joost (Reply 9):
NIMBY's are people that want to have the benefits om a certain public (mostly infrastructural) service, but do not want to want to have the disadvantages that come with it, like noise. So therefore, Not In My BackYard.

didn't know that there is a special name for these guys. We have a lot of discussions every day here at FRA, too. The people living in the neighbourhood of the airport complain every day about the noise level. Because of that the airport can't expand that fast as it's needed. But the main thing is that this region / this villages are very addicted to the airport. More than 60% of their inhabitants work at the airport, so I can't understand why they complain about all these things.

Quoting Joost (Reply 9):
There is a guy that files a noise complaint to AMS every day (as a way of life)... and he bought the house 4 years ago, moving from a house on the edge of a natural reserve, to a house on a few kilometers from one of the AMS runways.

:D what a stupid guy!
 
Joost
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RE: What If DUS Would Have A Longer Runway?

Sat May 26, 2007 6:31 pm

Quoting Stylo777 (Reply 10):
so I can't understand why they complain about all these things.

Well, when 60% has an airport-related job, there is still another 40% that doesn't have an airport-related job and might well be disturbed by the noise, and will complain.

I am not too familiar with the FRA situation, but the situation at AMS is similar to what you describe. There are 40.000 people that have a Schiphol-related job, and then you haven't even taken into account the way AMS supports the global position of the Amsterdam region.

With Schiphol growing at a fast rate, more and more houses get disturbed. With the new runway, also cities that previously never had any noise from Schiphol, like Castricum (check google maps for example, it's quite far away from the city) now have noise. They are that far away from Schiphol, that they don't have to much direct economic benefits.

I often hear people say: "if you don't like it, just move", but then the problem is: where do you want to go? Housing in the Amsterdam region is so scarce, that there aren't too much alternatives. How is that in Frankfurt?
 
stylo777
Posts: 1996
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RE: What If DUS Would Have A Longer Runway?

Sat May 26, 2007 7:04 pm

Quoting Joost (Reply 11):
How is that in Frankfurt?

almost the same discussions. But I guess this discussions are existent at every big airport  Smile

Regarding Frankfurt the infrastructure in the neighbourhood is influenced by the airport a lot. For example the public metropolitan and suburban commuter railway and bus system is very developed. This is pleasant for all the airport workers who don't need more than 20 minutes to get to work as well as all other people who can get to the citycentre of Frankfurt within 30-35minutes and 20-25 minutes to Wiesbaden/Mainz (two other big cities in the Rhein-Main region close to Frankfurt). Within minutes you are able to drive onto the motorway A5 and A3 which are the major motorways in Germany and connects the North with the South (A5) and the East with the West (A3).
The housing prices in these villages are low compared to other parts of the region. Because of that we could see a big migration of airport-commuters to these villages.

I also work at the airport, but I don't live in this region. I live 15miles North of the airport and could clearly hear the noise of a big jumbo or MD flying over my house. Eventually I don't notice the noises anymore. But my GF is living very close to the airport underneath the approach and even there we don't notice the noises. So I'm sure that this is the same for almost all people living in the neighbourhood of the airport and I assume that all discussions and complains are made by people don't realising that and having a bad behaviour.
 
bimmerkid19
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RE: What If DUS Would Have A Longer Runway?

Sat May 26, 2007 7:04 pm

Quoting Stylo777 (Reply 10):
didn't know that there is a special name for these guys. We have a lot of discussions every day here at FRA, too. The people living in the neighbourhood of the airport complain every day about the noise level. Because of that the airport can't expand that fast as it's needed. But the main thing is that this region / this villages are very addicted to the airport. More than 60% of their inhabitants work at the airport, so I can't understand why they complain about all these things.

the main problem is that people in the world have to learn to stop griping and groaning... that extention of the runway allows bigger planes to land at the airport which translates to more flights from further away which translates to more international trade which means the economy grows.
Last flights: LH 3738 MUC - ZRH , LH 3749 ZRH - MUC . Upcoming: EK 50 MUC - DXB 3-aug. and EK 322 DXB - ICN 7- Aug.
 
mainMAN
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RE: What If DUS Would Have A Longer Runway?

Sat May 26, 2007 7:06 pm

Quoting Stylo777 (Reply 10):

didn't know that there is a special name for these guys.

Nimby isn't a real word, unless it's been included in the Oxford English Dictionary. It might have by now, because the term is 20 years old. Most English speakers will know what it means, but it's still slang (for example very informal language). Just so you know.......
 
Joost
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RE: What If DUS Would Have A Longer Runway?

Sat May 26, 2007 7:15 pm

Quoting Bimmerkid19 (Reply 13):
that extention of the runway allows bigger planes to land at the airport which translates to more flights from further away which translates to more international trade which means the economy grows.

Here you assume that everone benefits equally from economic growth, which isn't the case. Next there is of course that economic growth almost always comes with a larger burden on the environment. In very densely populated areas like the Ruhr area or Randstad area (Netherlands) the environmental capacity reaches it's limits. Economic growth isn't the thing that matters, it is welfare growth. When the environmental resources are fully used, one might argue that common welfare decreases by a growing economy.

It's very easy to complain about the people that complain when you either have the benefits (i.e. job) for yourself, or when you don't have the burden (i.e. you don't live near the airport).
 
Glareskin
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RE: What If DUS Would Have A Longer Runway?

Sat May 26, 2007 8:13 pm

IMO DUS has a great potential of become one of the worlds important airports. It's own adherent population of over 20M people and the attraction to a big part of The Netherlands plus a part of Belgium in combination with the economical importance would make it interesting for a lot of airlines. It is more the protectional attitude of mostly LH to keep FRA important and the NIMBY culture that slows down the growth. Even for KL it would make a perfect second hub. I don't see the complaints about infrastructure. For me, living close to the EIN region, it takes me in a week day average 1,5 hour to get to DUS and 3 hours to get to AMS. And AMS is closer! Obviously I prefer to fly out of DUS.

Quoting Stylo777 (Reply 1):
I think they don't look forward to a 'less atractive' destination like DUS compared to other European metropolis like BCN, FCO, MAD and so on.

Airlines don't care about how attractive a city in itself is. And I can guarantee that DUS has far more high-yield potential than the cities mentioned by you.
There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
 
tommybp251b
Posts: 328
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2006 5:21 am

RE: What If DUS Would Have A Longer Runway?

Sat May 26, 2007 11:15 pm

First of all thx for the amount af answers.

Quoting Stylo777 (Reply 1):
There is already traffic with heavies like all LT A330's, EK B777 and sometimes TK A340.

Your are right, that there are many heavies.

BUT

1. An A330 doesn't have a big MTOW like a 747/777
2. A fully loaded 747/777 couldn't make it to eg. HKG or SIN or NRT
3. Check where the EK 777 is flying! To DXB, I guess it only has half of the possible fuel amount in their wings.
4. TK 340 from DUS to IST. Those flights are normaly with 737/A320. They just use it when there are a lot of turkish people living in Germany, are travelling to Turkey.
5. The EK 747F can not make it fully loaded on the DUS-DXB leg.

So which international(non-european) airlines will we see in the future?

Best Regards. Tom
Tom from Cologne