Oykie
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If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 6:31 pm

According to ATWOnline, the A350XWB might have an EIS as late as 2014. That is 7 years away from now. I have no doubt that when the A350XWB jet arrives it will be a very competitive airplane for many years to come. However that is still 7 years away. And the A350XWB has grown so much that it is now not an A330 replacement, but an A340-500 and A340-600 replacement airplane. This makes a gap in the Airbus product portfolio. As the A350 has evolved, they have made an airplane that will not replace the A332. In it's product portfolio, Airbus also lacks a true 787-3/8 competitor.

The A332 is still selling well. It is a very modern plane with only 9 years in service. In the beginning the A350 should have replaced the A332. Now that it has not, but will replace the A340-500/600 should Airbus make a midlife update on the A332? Airbus are stretched on resources for the moment, but an engine update should make the A332 more competitive. With GEnx engines the A330 should be able to take some of the market share in this segment. Maybe they could co-develop an A330 update with one of the engine OEM's and use the engine OEM resources since airbus resources are so stretched at the moment?

Airbus has not said anything publicly about this segment, or how they will address the issue. This gives me the impression that Airbus in the end will just continue to sell the A330 as it is until there is no longer a demand. But with the late EIS of the A350, there should be a room for an A330-200 update.
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khenleydia
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If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 6:51 pm

Some might say this is a duplicate topic since someone already mentioned the article, but I think you bring up some different questions.

Quoting OyKIE (Thread starter):
That is 7 years away from now. I have no doubt that when the A350XWB jet arrives it will be a very competitive airplane for many years to come. However that is still 7 years away. And the A350XWB has grown so much that it is now not an A330 replacement, but an A340-500 and A340-600 replacement airplane.

I partly think that you answer your own questions though. As you point out, IF the EIS for the A350XWB is delayed, then it will be 7 years. Depending on the replacement cycle for planes, Airbus will likely be better off putting the 777 more in their sites then the 787. You also point out that the A330 is still selling well. What isn't is the A340 series, because of the 777. So, again, I think Airbus is making the right move in targeting the 777 mainly. Now if only their marketing people could admit that.  Smile

Good questions, at least I think so. I am not an armchair ceo for an airliner or for the manufacturers, so I could be completely wrong with my thoughts or answers. But hey, that is why we all like this site. We get to give our opinions!

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semobeila
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If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 6:59 pm

Quoting OyKIE (Thread starter):
According to ATWOnline, the A350XWB might have an EIS as late as 2014. That is 7 years away from now.

Sorry, but that is not really new - the date of 2013/2014 has always been mentioned by Airbus for the XWB. So where is there a delay?
 
cricket
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If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 7:02 pm

A mid-life update for the entire A330 program with improved engines might be a good idea, but the next generation of engines in the size range designed to be bleedless specifically for the 787, can the A330 be significantly re-engineered in-time before the 787 just romps home with the market. I know Leahy claims that the market size for such aircraft is 5000 frames over the next two decades, but a seven year lead time will surrender not just the 10% Airbus already has lost (by their own reckoning) but an additional 20-30 per cent!
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Oykie
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If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 7:16 pm

Quoting KhenleyDIA (Reply 1):
Some might say this is a duplicate topic since someone already mentioned the article, but I think you bring up some different questions.

Thank you for bringing this up KhenleyDIA. I hope the moderators do not see this as a duplicate thread. The other thread is discussing if it is a good thing that Airbus now probably will opt for composite barrel, while my thread looks into the A330 and that Airbus no longer has a good replacement airplane in this segment.

Quoting KhenleyDIA (Reply 1):
Depending on the replacement cycle for planes, Airbus will likely be better off putting the 777 more in their sites then the 787.

Probably, but as has Cricket says:

Quoting Cricket (Reply 3):
I know Leahy claims that the market size for such aircraft is 5000 frames over the next two decades

Boeing has secured 10% of the 787 market for the next 20 years. Could Airbus update the A330 just a little bit to get a larger market share.

Quoting KhenleyDIA (Reply 1):
Now if only their marketing people could admit that.

 checkmark 

Quoting Semobeila (Reply 2):
Sorry, but that is not really new - the date of 2013/2014 has always been mentioned by Airbus for the XWB. So where is there a delay?

The EIS for the A350-900 has been targeted for 2013. According to ATWonline Airbus will go for a composite barrel instead of a more traditional aluminium frame. This will push the A350 EIS to early 2014.

http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=9009
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workhorse
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If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 7:22 pm

I would go even further and say that they should cancel the entire A350 program, and make an A330 update instead. Then all available resources must be put on the A320 replacement program.

As it goes now, by the time when Boeing will be working on the 737RS, Airbus will have most of their engineering and financial resources engaged in the A350 program.

An A320 update will be less competitive then the all-new 737RS, and don't forget about Embraer! I'm ready to bet that they will make a 737/320-sized plane very soon, so Airbus will have to compete with both Boeing and Embraer, just like McDonnel-Douglas had to compete with both A and B.

By the time Airbus will finish their work on the A350, their positions will be seriously weakened on their key narrowbody market where they have done most of their money and where they were the best. Meanwhile, Boeing will have finished their work on the 737RS and will have their hands free for the Y3.

So the so much dreamed about A350, for which so much sacrifices will have been made, will in the end have quite a short life.

[Edited 2007-05-26 12:24:38]
 
slz396
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If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 7:41 pm

Quoting Cricket (Reply 3):
I know Leahy claims that the market size for such aircraft is 5000 frames over the next two decades, but a seven year lead time will surrender not just the 10% Airbus already has lost (by their own reckoning) but an additional 20-30 per cent!

Both manufacturers like to present themselves as if they are at the centre of all things and trigger a world wide fleet renewal, backing up their claims by pointing at their great sales numbers (the leading product in its class, best selling aircraft in its class ever, 500 planes sold before EIS etc. etc), yet they conveniently forget that aircraft sales have steadily risen over the past few decades and that as such all of their sales numbers are subject to tempering and just proof of a CONTINUOUS and STEADILY GROWING stream of orders of which they just happen to take (a large) part because they happen to offer a good product at the time the orders were placed: a manufacturer which comes to the scene later is likely to have a better product at that time and will simply win more of its orders later and these are not to be considered less of the total, just part of another time period; it is as simple as that.

In essence: (the numbers may be wrong, they are just here as an exemple)
the 787 is competing for around 5,000 sales over the next 20 years
the A350 will compete for 5000 (or more by then) sales over its 20-years life span as well
HOWEVER, the 2 20-year time periods will not completely overlap, so the initial years (and their sales) are not lost for the A350, they are simply added at the end.

[Edited 2007-05-26 12:44:58]
 
Oykie
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If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 7:45 pm

Quoting Workhorse (Reply 5):
So the so much dreamed about A350, for which so much sacrifices will have been made, will in the end have quite a short life.

I agree. Airbus is sacrificing allot to make the A350 competitive. While the A350EIS is 7 years away, Boeing's development time is 4 years. Meaning that after the 787 EIS, Boeing could at best be eight years away from developing both a 737 replacement and a 777 replacement. By 2016 two years after Airbus are finished with their A350XWB Boeing could have the hole range from 100 - 400 seat covered by new carbon fiber airplanes. The oldest of them could then be the 787. Should be tempting for Boeing. While Airbus at best can do one new project, and update two others.

If one look at it this way, Airbus should consider their option very carefully. They will influence the whole future of the company.
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
cricket
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If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 7:50 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 6):
HOWEVER, the 2 20-year time periods will not completely overlap, so the initial years (and their sales) are not lost for the A350, they are simply added at the end.

But that depends if Boeing (by 2025-30) has a successor planned for the 787, which could eat into mid-life A350 sales. Airbus did not have a a very competitive product for the second wave of 777's and see what happened - the 777-300ER stomped the competition.
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par13del
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If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 8:06 pm

We need to understand the difference in mentality of a company who can secure financial backing from a "government entity" rather than private sources. Airbus resources are limited only by the political will of their most important share holders, so with that, the focus within the company is not on whether they can "afford" to produce a B-787 competitor by improving the A-332 while at the same time bring the A-380 into the market and producing a A-320 replacememt.
I do believe that presently, they are looking at how best to improve the product lines, presently, the weak link in their line up is the A-340, you do not hear the route / payload / range specific details being given for the rest of their products when comparing them to Boeing, the A-320 and A-332 stands toe to toe without much if any interpretation.

The A-350XWB is going to fill the obvious weak link - A-340/500/600 -, the decision on whether to improve the A-332 or build a new a/c will be based more on Airbus plans to produce a technically competitive or better plane and a lot less on the extent of their resources being stretched, my opinion. Whether liked or not, Airbus is more than just a plane maker, so other factors than just pure economics play a much larger part, my opinion.
 
slz396
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If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 8:06 pm

Quoting OyKIE (Reply 7):
By 2016 two years after Airbus are finished with their A350XWB Boeing could have the hole range from 100 - 400 seat covered by new carbon fiber airplanes

And then they can enjoy a few years of lead, after which they will be matched by Airbus on all of their offerings by a product which is newer and likely better; a bit in the same way as they were roughly 15 years ago... I don't know if that is such a tempting idea to Boeing really.

Remember that the bottom line is Airbus currently has the technologically most advanced product line up flying (A320/A330/A380) and has enough backlog on them to let Boeing take the first steps on ALL of the market segments with enough time at hands to let them take a 5 year lead on them...

That's why I've never understood why Airbus was so eager to react to the 787. They should have just sticked to their initial position towards the 787 ('its just a plastic A330') and kept on selling their A330 as it is. Just look at the sales figures of the plane over the past few years and imagine what they might have been if some of the A350 customers would also have selected it iso the original A350 (which I wouldn't have offered). They were in NO urgent need to do move to protect their production over the next years whatsoever.

Then at around this time, they could have come out with a fresh and all new design, called the A350, which would be a full 777 competitor, based on all the 787 technology and putting Boeing under pressure of having to focus on 2 next projects at the same time: Y1 and Y3.

Airbus is currently shifting to the above strategy so it seems, by making the A350 a full 777 competitor and adopting all possible new technologies... In my view, they have understood they were needlessly worried by the 787 and are happily handing over the initiative to Boeing.
 
Oykie
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If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 8:45 pm

Quoting Par13del (Reply 9):
Airbus resources are limited only by the political will of their most important share holders, so with that, the focus within the company is not on whether they can "afford" to produce a B-787 competitor by improving the A-332 while at the same time bring the A-380 into the market and producing a A-320 replacement.

Airbus has it's human resources stretched. That means that they cannot get hold of enough engineers, to launch more programs. As of this date, I am not sure how many engineers that are working on the A400M and A380, but i doubt there would be enough engineers to help Airbus launch more programs.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 10):
And then they can enjoy a few years of lead, after which they will be matched by Airbus on all of their offerings

That is true, but then Airbus needs to cut down the development time. Why do they need 7 years from now until EIS? The 787 got developed in 4 years.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 10):
That's why I've never understood why Airbus was so eager to react to the 787.

Me neither. They should have waited until they knew what they where facing.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 10):
In my view, they have understood they were needlessly worried by the 787 and are happily handing over the initiative to Boeing.

Airbus is more on track with their A350 right now, as it will enter service when the 777 is due for replacement. Bur if Airbus has their hands tied the next 7 years, that could end up making Airbus less competitive.
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 8:53 pm

Quoting Workhorse (Reply 5):
As it goes now, by the time when Boeing will be working on the 737RS...

What do you mean will be? This thing is already in the pipeline....
 
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par13del
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 8:59 pm

Slz396 I think the reaction of the market leader in any industry is more of a not sit on your laurels and wait, but to do what is necessary to remain on top, however, they can be forgiven for at times not remembering that they are the market leaders, a slip every now and then is ok, just not a big one.

Cheers
 
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ZSOFN
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 9:23 pm

Quoting Workhorse (Reply 5):
I would go even further and say that they should cancel the entire A350 program, and make an A330 update instead.

That's what the A350 in its original form was meant to be - there's a reason it's no longer the case; it's not what the customers wanted.
 
Rheinbote
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RE: The A350XWB EIS Delayed. Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 9:35 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 10):
...putting Boeing under pressure of having to focus on 2 next projects at the same time: Y1 and Y3.
Airbus is currently shifting to the above strategy so it seems, by making the A350 a full 777 competitor and adopting all possible new technologies... In my view, they have understood they were needlessly worried by the 787 and are happily handing over the initiative to Boeing.

What...? Airbus is not in the position to force Boeing to anything due to a) a perilious lack of cash and b) a worrysome disadvantage in product time-to-market. So unless Airbus manages to revamp their corporate structure and their industrial set-up and find their own profitable pace, they'll never accumulate the capital nor achieve the agility required to effectively mess with Boeing, let alone on two fronts, unless Boeing stumbles over their own feet.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 10):
Remember that the bottom line is Airbus currently has the technologically most advanced product line up flying

Even if that was true, that wouldn't be worth a damn if the product line is not profitable. For the time being, the A380 is eating up all the profits generated by the 320 and 330. In this context, it is my impression that one issue seems to be largely ignored: The complete failure of the A340-500/-600 program ceding cumulative revenues of USD ~180bn to the 777 until 2016.

edited for wrong quote

[Edited 2007-05-26 14:36:45]
 
norcal
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 9:42 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 10):
That's why I've never understood why Airbus was so eager to react to the 787.

Maybe because the 787 size represents the largest portion of the widebody market. Doing nothing is a very dangerous proposition.

Doing what they have done is better than what you have suggested. Airbus has been keeping customers waiting by saying they have this great new A350. Even though the EIS has been pushed back further and further with countless design changes the airlines have still waited. Airlines don't like the prospect of only having one choice and because of this some with out a burning need to replace fleets have decided to wait. If Airbus had done nothing for several years what do you think those airlines would have done? They would have seen the rush for 787s and jumped on the band wagon to get spots before they are all gone. At least with the path Airbus has taken they have been able to keep some airlines sitting on the fence. Airlines like QR and EK would have bought 787s by now if there was no prospect of an A350

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 10):
Just look at the sales figures of the plane over the past few years and imagine what they might have been if some of the A350 customers would also have selected it iso the original A350 (which I wouldn't have offered). They were in NO urgent need to do move to protect their production over the next years whatsoever.

While the A330 is a magnificent plane some of the sales have been top off orders, compensation deals (for the A380), and stop gap airplanes. The A330 will slow down as its own production slots are quickly filling up. Boeing sold quite a few 737 classics (MD sold some MD-80s as well) because Airbus couldn't fill the demand for A320s but the demand for the classics didn't mean a 737NG wasn't needed.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 10):
In my view, they have understood they were needlessly worried by the 787 and are happily handing over the initiative to Boeing.

That is the same hubris that got Boeing into trouble.....

Quoting Par13del (Reply 13):
Slz396 I think the reaction of the market leader in any industry is more of a not sit on your laurels and wait, but to do what is necessary to remain on top, however, they can be forgiven for at times not remembering that they are the market leaders, a slip every now and then is ok, just not a big one.

Exactly
 
airbazar
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 10:16 pm

Quoting OyKIE (Thread starter):
But with the late EIS of the A350, there should be a room for an A330-200 update.

At this time all we can be sure of is, we don't know what Airbus is doing. From the day Airbus launched the A350 I suggested it was just a delay tactic to give them some room to work on a true new aircraft. Not only a new aircraft but one that would straddle both the 787 and 777 models. When I made that comment, I admit it sounded a little ludicrous but today it's ringging more true than ever. Some people said they could never do that because their customers would never sign up for one airplane and then accept a completely different airplane. Well, it happened. At this time, I'm not sure I can trust anything coming out of Airbus anymore regarding the A350 program. For all I know they could very well be saying one thing, and working on something completely different just to throw off the competition. There's still nothing concrete about the XWB other than facy drawings. You don't just wake up one day and decide to change from panels to barrels. Something is up and I suspect the final airplane and EIS date will be different than what we know today.
 
bigjku
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 10:20 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 6):
In essence: (the numbers may be wrong, they are just here as an exemple)
the 787 is competing for around 5,000 sales over the next 20 years
the A350 will compete for 5000 (or more by then) sales over its 20-years life span as well
HOWEVER, the 2 20-year time periods will not completely overlap, so the initial years (and their sales) are not lost for the A350, they are simply added at the end.

Unless of course the A350 does not offer substantially better economics than the 787, in which case the life of the 787 will be extended.

The 20 year lifespan of a frame is a general guideline, but if no one makes anything that can clearly beat it then that cycle can be extended.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 10):
Airbus is currently shifting to the above strategy so it seems, by making the A350 a full 777 competitor and adopting all possible new technologies... In my view, they have understood they were needlessly worried by the 787 and are happily handing over the initiative to Boeing.

This view is just delusional in my opinion. Airbus faces a serious development problem that no one wants to face and it has killed companies before. Essentially they have a competitor that has developed a new, game changing product first and that competitor is inside of their development cycle. That is not a recipe for success and should not be celebrated.

Airbus faces 2 major problems that they have to address and both are related to their inability to develop products in a timely manner.

Being 7-10 years behind, who knows know that the a350 may be pushed back, is just not going to cut it. By having such slow development cycles the A350 is going to come out either facing competition from upgraded 787's at that point or a whole new larger design or possibly both. From design freeze to first delivery is currently longer than Boeing's total development time and that just lets Boeing see the specs and aim directly to beat it. This is a very bad thing.

The second major problem is that Airbus simply cannot be late to the narrow body market. While it is nice in theory to say they can watch and then just build something better it is not quite that simple. Margins are not nearly as great when it comes to performance on narrow body aircraft. Waiting 5 years will do little but have them be late to the party. If they wanted to be vastly more efficient that would mean new engines compared to Boeing, so that would be around 10 years and they would just face an updated version of Boeing's new plane were that the case.

We have seen, particularly in the narrow body market that a lot of emphasis is put on fleet commonality. If Boeing starts grabbing up A320 customers because Airbus is late to the party then Airbus has to overcome that as well. While Boeing cannot fill all the demand at once they can certainly make it so they get in the door with a lot of people.

In the narrow body LCC market in particular none of those carriers can really afford to be caught with less efficient aircraft while other LCC's and many legacies are able to undercut them on price.

Airbus cannot afford to do two things.

First they cannot be late to the narrow body party. That will kill them as I think it is pretty unlikely that they could substantially beat a new narrow body by Boeing in a way that is not simply matched, like an engine upgrade. (nor do I think Boeing could substantially beat Airbus for that matter)

Secondly they cannot continue to have these absurd development cycles. It simply will not be possible to stay competitive with that sort of turnaround time.
 
workhorse
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For

Sat May 26, 2007 10:24 pm

Quoting OyKIE (Reply 11):

Airbus has it's human resources stretched.

Exactly. Human resources, logistics, manufacturing process... even if the government gives you freely tons of cash (which will not happen) it takes more then just money to achieve an industrial project. I don't think Airbus will be able to make A350 and a competitive A320 replacement at the same time.

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 12):
What do you mean will be? This thing is already in the pipeline....

Sure, but most BCA resources are now focused on the 787. The 737RS project will really take of in 1-2 years, I think.

Quoting ZSOFN (Reply 14):
That's what the A350 in its original form was meant to be - there's a reason it's no longer the case; it's not what the customers wanted.

Excuse me for being cynical, but they would have no choice. An updated A330 with GEnx/Trent 1000's would not be that bad. Airlines would have choice between the 787 (which would be more expensive and offer later delivery dates due to its popularity) and a cheap and quickly delivered A330NG.

This would not bring Airbus a lot of money or glory, but it would keep the line open until some next important widebody project is launched.

[Edited 2007-05-26 15:26:03]
 
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Stitch
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 10:25 pm

Quoting OyKIE (Thread starter):
The A332 is still selling well. It is a very modern plane with only 9 years in service. In the beginning the A350 should have replaced the A332. Now that it has not, but will replace the A340-500/600 should Airbus make a midlife update on the A332?

I used to think an A330E program was a good idea, but now I do not. I went into it more in depth in the other thread, but the main reason is this:

Airlines believe spun CFRP monolithic barrels are the future. That an A330E would be an Al or Al-Li plane means that it will not appeal to airlines once the 787 enters service and proves herself. The airlines have already shown this by their refusal to commit to the A350 en masse and forcing Airbus to now use the same spun CFRP monolithic barrels on the A350 that Boeing is using on the 787.

I just can't see any large investment Airbus does with the A330 family making it any more competitive in the long term compared to the 787 or the A350. The A330 is selling now because she is a good plane for the moment and she is available, but her time - and the time of all Al airliners - will soon be past.
 
bringiton
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 10:32 pm

Airbus has sold the A330 till something like 2009 , i am sure that instead of spending 2-4 billion dollars in making a NG version they can discount (post 2009) with half of that money and sell the produciton line for another 5 years or so . If the demand continues like this the 787 (even with increased production) would not be able to tackle all of the demand till 2015 or so , so airbus can still technically sell quite a few a330's on an interim basis . No need to spend the money now to make A little better (still wont come close to the 787) , they are bettre off exploiting the shortage (if the buying cycle continues post 2010) in boeing's ability to deliver to all the demand and keep selling the existing 330's , They are probably selling for premium now because they are in big demand but post 2010 they can discount them and still make quite a bit of money through volume .

We would have to wait and see , maybe at farnborough next year airbus decides to add some more stuff and the EIS gets delayed by another year  Smile  Wink
 
workhorse
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For

Sat May 26, 2007 10:32 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 20):
I used to think an A330E program was a good idea, but now I do not.

Do they really have choice? My opinion is that they can afford to loose the widebody market (or, more likely, an important part of the widebody market), but they can't afford to loose the narrowbody market. If Boeing and Embraer bring to market their all-new 737/320 replacement products both at the same time, Airbus is dead.

[Edited 2007-05-26 15:37:16]
 
bigjku
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 10:53 pm

Quoting Workhorse (Reply 19):
Airlines would have choice between the 787 (which would be more expensive and offer later delivery dates due to its popularity) and a cheap and quickly delivered A330NG.

I am not sure a 330NG would be any much substantially cheaper than a 787. The 787 manufacturing process is probably substantially cheaper than that for the 330NG so I would imagine Boeing could get the price pretty comparable to any 300NG.
 
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 10:56 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 6):
In essence: (the numbers may be wrong, they are just here as an exemple)
the 787 is competing for around 5,000 sales over the next 20 years
the A350 will compete for 5000 (or more by then) sales over its 20-years life span as well
HOWEVER, the 2 20-year time periods will not completely overlap, so the initial years (and their sales) are not lost for the A350, they are simply added at the end.

A given model has only a 10 year lifetime at most, unless updates are made or the competition doesn't push the boundaries of technology far enough. Had Boeing pushed the 737NG tech further, the A320 would have needed a serious upgrade to keep up. As Boeing was conservative, they are basically at parity. If Airbus can't get a tech advantage over the current 787 models, which Boeing can't match through minor updates, the lifetime of the current 787 models will END AT THE SAME TIME as the competing A350XWB models.

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 15):
Even if that was true, that wouldn't be worth a damn if the product line is not profitable. For the time being, the A380 is eating up all the profits generated by the 320 and 330. In this context, it is my impression that one issue seems to be largely ignored: The complete failure of the A340-500/-600 program ceding cumulative revenues of USD ~180bn to the 777 until 2016.

I have noted that people seem to forget about the complete disaster of the A340NG and focus on the A380. The A340NG was an expensive update that has collapsed saleswise and is not generating profits that Airbus has hoped for. This is offseted to some extent by the fact that they are able to sell more A330s to the extent that there is competition between models for manufacturing assets and positions. And while these might be fairly profitable as development costs are probably paid off, they won't generate the same magnitude of profits as a larger plane. Particularly when the 787 limits the pricing ability of Airbus.
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Stitch
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 11:01 pm

Quoting Workhorse (Reply 22):
Do they really have choice?

If the current A330 figuratively "won't sell" after the mid-2010's because it's not CFRP, why would an A330E that also was not CFRP sell? One of the biggest advantages to airlines with CFRP is that maintenance over the life of the airplane is much cheaper allowing them to fly the plane much longer.

A 787 in 2038 might not be the most efficient plane of it's class, but it will still be cheaper to operate then a 30-year old 767 or A330, especially because it won't need to be in the shop so often. And it will be in the shop less often during the previous 30 years thanks to requiring less-intensive - and less, period - heavy maintenance checks, which means she's spending more time flying and earning revenue.

Also, the 787-8 herself is a larger then the 767, A300, A310 and A332. And yet the A358 is only about 10% larger then the 787-8, so it's not like comparing a 787-8 to an A358 is like comparing a 767-300 to a 777-200. It's more like the 767-200 to the 767-300.

I think an A358 should be able to serve as a fine A332 replacement even though it will be bigger just as the A332 served as a fine 763ER replacement, even though it too was bigger.
 
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 11:02 pm

Well, given the growth and the delays in the A350XWB, it is positioning itself nicely to be a Y3 replacement aircraft. One can only assume Airbus has figured on the purchase cycles and service life of the aircraft with the airlines.

Cheers!

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slz396
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 11:11 pm

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 15):
Airbus is not in the position to force Boeing to anything due to a) a perilious lack of cash and b) a worrysome disadvantage in product time-to-market..


Just to point out this is precisely how Airbus did did it in the past too, despite them having longer design cycles and being lower on cash than Boeing then as well. How this can be? By being second to the market and let the lead to the other....

It is exceptionally dangerous for anybody to be totally committed to a new design if a fews years later your competitor outclasses you, hence the idea it is better to react than it is to act, with the backlog constituting a financial buffer to bridge to time where you are no longer offering the technological lead product.

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 15):
So unless Airbus manages to revamp their corporate structure and their industrial set-up and find their own profitable pace.

Power8 calls for a structural reorganisation of Airbus and cuts design cycles short by 2 years...

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 15):
they'll never accumulate the capital nor achieve the agility required to effectively mess with Boeing, let alone on two fronts, unless Boeing stumbles over their own feet.

Do you really believe, even in your wildest dreams that it will be impossible for EADS to bring together enough risk sharing investors, knowing how much money there is to be made in replacing all those A320 or A330 flying today?
There are only 2 capable manufacturers and the global market is huge, so the idea that there wouldn't be enough investors willing to spend their money on this, just because Boeing has a head start is ridiculous.

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 15):
For the time being, the A380 is eating up all the profits generated by the 320 and 330. In this context.

This is just a temporarily effect of Airbus not delivering any A380s... Over the next few years, Airbus is going to deliver many A380s and by the time most of the spending for the A350 will have to happen, production of the A380 will be standing at 45 planes annually, thus generating an enormous cashflow which will pay for the A350 program.

I have explained it many times before: since much of the investment on the A380 is already sunk, it is extremely important for Airbus to start delivering the Superjumbos because it will generate them a huge cash flow second only to that of the A320 from which they can pay a lot of their future investments!
 
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 11:17 pm

Quoting OyKIE (Reply 7):
Boeing's development time is 4 years

We need to have a bit of care throwing this number around. The 787 has clearly benefitted in the early stages of its industrialisation from the work that was done for Sonic Cruiser.
4 years ago was NOT the "start".  no 
The launch of the A350-XWB last summer is much more of a "clean sheet of paper" start than the launch of the 787 was.

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 21):
Airbus has sold the A330 till something like 2009 , i am sure that instead of spending 2-4 billion dollars in making a NG version they can discount (post 2009) with half of that money and sell the produciton line for another 5 years or so

 checkmark 
In spades! IMO you are absolutely correct!. In addition to having no financial downside, it has the added benefit of not tying up crucial engineering and management resources on a project that doesn't move the business forward.

Airbus HAVE to do an -XWB type plane. The sooner, the better. It's the future way of doing business for them.

For the same reasons I don't see Boeing spending large resources on the 777. They'll discount it where necessary, and sell them well for, what? 7-10 years?

Regards
 
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 11:26 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 27):
Just to point out this is precisely how Airbus did did it in the past too, despite them having longer design cycles and being lower on cash than Boeing then as well. How this can be? By being second to the market and let the lead to the other....

Yes but Airbus was competing with Boeing designs that had been in service for decades and based on what are now considered "traditional" production materials and methods:

B737 entered service in 1968. A320 entered service in 1988.
B767 entered service in 1982. A330 entered service in 1993. *
B747 entered service in 1970. A340 entered service in 1993.

That's a bit different then entering service a bit under a decade later with an all new production material and methodology** that Boeing has been actively experimenting, developing, prototyping, manufacturing and using for over a decade prior.

I'm not implying in any way that Airbus can't make a plane better then the 787. I am just implying that it may not be the "cakewalk" that some folks think being a bit later to market believe will make it that.


* - And yes, I know the A300B2's EIS was in 1974, but she was a short-haul plane.
** - When I say "method", I am referring how the material is applied to make a plane, and not how the itself is put together in final assembly.
 
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 11:35 pm

Quoting OyKIE (Reply 11):
That is true, but then Airbus needs to cut down the development time. Why do they need 7 years from now until EIS? The 787 got developed in 4 years.

Their main problem appears to be the lack of technology for making the barrels. A while back Airbus announced that they were spending half a billion dollars on R&D in this area. I suspect that this R&D, plus knowledge of their suppliers, have made the new announcement possible, but they still have more development and design work to do than Boeing has.

Remember that Airbus is now being bolder than Boeing with the 350 - they are basically planning to build Y2.5 and this more aggressive position is going to be more demanding. At the same time they are probably looking at Boeing's approach in building the 787 and trying to figure out what is best for them. Lots of work to be done on the component supplier side and, as we have seen with the 787, this is very complex.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 10):
That's why I've never understood why Airbus was so eager to react to the 787.

They didn't at first, but the airlines reactions pushed them rather vigorously.

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 18):
Unless of course the A350 does not offer substantially better economics than the 787, in which case the life of the 787 will be extended.



Quoting BigJKU (Reply 18):
If they wanted to be vastly more efficient that would mean new engines compared to Boeing, so that would be around 10 years and they would just face an updated version of Boeing's new plane were that the case.

Unfortunately for Airbus the 787 has been designed for rapid and easy engine replacement. If a new engine comes along that provides significantly better performance then Boeing can quickly incorporate it into their production line and the airlines using the "old" 787 engines can upgrade at their desired pace.

Quoting Workhorse (Reply 19):
Exactly. Human resources, logistics, manufacturing process... even if the government gives you freely tons of cash (which will not happen) it takes more then just money to achieve an industrial project.

There was a very sly dig by Steve Jobs (Apple's CEO) when he noted that you can't just write a check to deliver great products - if that was possible then Microsoft would have great products. The same issues apply to Airbus.

If Airbus had continued some of the less expensive work on the 330 line they would have probably been in a bit better position today, even though the 330 line is doing OK right now. Their main benefit, however, would have been in being able to get orders because of delivery slots after the 787 started filling up.

I would say, however, that I believe Airbus chose the right size for an all new plane. It may be that their long range plans are the 350, 320 replacement and, then, something in between.

Unfortunately Boeing probably has the upper hand on the NB side. I read in a link from this board that Boeing was using a "joint 787/Y1" development program for the 787. That stunned me (and still does today) because it basically means that Boeing has a huge lead on Airbus in NB development, limited only by engine availability. With the pressure that the engine OEMs will be getting from the major 737/MD operators (like WN & AA) I would bet that Y1 will hit EIS around 2011/2012. The only thing that will help Airbus in this situation is the large number of slots that will be taken by the major 737/MD operators. It does give Airbus a little bit of breathing room - but not much.
 
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 11:51 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 30):
That stunned me (and still does today) because it basically means that Boeing has a huge lead on Airbus in NB development, limited only by engine availability

At the same time, Boeing themselves have said that such a lead is not huge enough to be worth doing until the engines come along.........

Regards
 
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For

Sat May 26, 2007 11:55 pm

Quoting Workhorse (Reply 19):
Airlines would have choice between the 787 (which would be more expensive and offer later delivery dates due to its popularity) and a cheap and quickly delivered A330NG.

I question that the 787 would be more expensive; my understanding is that it can be built for less than a comparable Al airliner due to much less labor required. There is absolutely nothing to gain by selling planes at a loss.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 20):
I just can't see any large investment Airbus does with the A330 family making it any more competitive in the long term compared to the 787 or the A350. The A330 is selling now because she is a good plane for the moment and she is available, but her time - and the time of all Al airliners - will soon be past.

Totally agree.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 27):
Over the next few years, Airbus is going to deliver many A380s and by the time most of the spending for the A350 will have to happen, production of the A380 will be standing at 45 planes annually, thus generating an enormous cashflow which will pay for the A350 program.

Before they can deliver 45 a year they have to sell 45 a year, and I just don't see that happening.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 28):
In spades! IMO you are absolutely correct!. In addition to having no financial downside, it has the added benefit of not tying up crucial engineering and management resources on a project that doesn't move the business forward.

Airbus HAVE to do an -XWB type plane. The sooner, the better. It's the future way of doing business for them.

For the same reasons I don't see Boeing spending large resources on the 777. They'll discount it where necessary, and sell them well for, what? 7-10 years?

 checkmark   checkmark 
Boeing desired to build a game-changer with the 787 and succeeded. Al construction is going to go the way of piston engines very soon, and Airbus is starting to realize it. They need to get their first one right, and it looks like they will, now that they appear to be going the full barrel route. Same applies to Boeing; there was a thread recently where Randy NG was quoted as saying that Boeing may update the 777 to answer the A350; this would be utterly foolish IMHO. Just as answering the 787 with an updated A330 failed, answering the A350 with an updated 777 will likewise fall flat.
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sv11
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sat May 26, 2007 11:58 pm

I think once the 787 enters service, Airbus will be struggling on the widebody front for a few years. The 77W has pretty much outclassed the A340 today, similar thing will happen to the A332 when the 787 enters service in 2008.

sv11
 
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sun May 27, 2007 12:08 am

Quoting Sv11 (Reply 33):
I think once the 787 enters service, Airbus will be struggling on the widebody front for a few years. The 77W has pretty much outclassed the A340 today, similar thing will happen to the A332 when the 787 enters service in 2008.

Quite true; the best hope for Airbus is that the A350 will similarly outclass the 777. But they need to get their act together and get the A350 in the air.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
Poitin
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sun May 27, 2007 12:10 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 30):
Quoting OyKIE (Reply 11):
That is true, but then Airbus needs to cut down the development time. Why do they need 7 years from now until EIS? The 787 got developed in 4 years.

Their main problem appears to be the lack of technology for making the barrels. A while back Airbus announced that they were spending half a billion dollars on R&D in this area. I suspect that this R&D, plus knowledge of their suppliers, have made the new announcement possible, but they still have more development and design work to do than Boeing has.

Remember that Airbus is now being bolder than Boeing with the 350 - they are basically planning to build Y2.5 and this more aggressive position is going to be more demanding. At the same time they are probably looking at Boeing's approach in building the 787 and trying to figure out what is best for them. Lots of work to be done on the component supplier side and, as we have seen with the 787, this is very complex.

Clearly, if the A350XWB is now a composite barrel construction, then Airbus will certainly have to announce it at the Paris Airshow, along with a EIS date. I think you have raised a number of interesting points and the one I am most interested in is what the EIS for the yet-all-new-again A350XWB is. I suspect that it will slip out from 2014 simply because they have to get the issues surrounding the barrel sections sorted out.

A second issue is the Airbus management structure. It is fairly clear that there are a number of different camps inside Airbus regarding the direction of the A350XWB. We have seen repeated contradictory statements from various spokespersons regarding the fuselage over the last few months. Is some ONE person in charge, or are they making decisions by consensus among dozens of different people? It appears to be the latter case, and if so, we may see even more slips over the next few years.
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DfwRevolution
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sun May 27, 2007 12:26 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 27):
I have explained it many times before: since much of the investment on the A380 is already sunk, it is extremely important for Airbus to start delivering the Superjumbos because it will generate them a huge cash flow second only to that of the A320 from which they can pay a lot of their future investments!

And what about paying those past investments that have already been sunk? Will Airbus just default on those? With the current A380 backlog, Airbus will be fortunate if the unit production costs are covered with each delivery. They have already admitted that a number of aircraft must be sold to their customers at a price below what it took to manufacture the individual aircraft, not even considering program costs. The profit margins on the first ~150 aircraft (i.e. the current backlog) will be razor thin.

Quoting Workhorse (Reply 5):
I would go even further and say that they should cancel the entire A350 program, and make an A330 update instead.

That would be a very bad idea, IMO. There was an extremely narrow gap of time in which Airbus could have pulled-off an upgraded A330, but that window is long gone. I suspect that if Airbus had begun offering the upgraded A330 the moment they new engine programs were launched, they could have locked down a few customers who weren't quite convinced of the 787's claims. But once Qantas placed their 787 order and rumors surfaced that the decision "wasn't even close," the global airlines likely cemented their view that only an all-new airplane could compete.
 
bringiton
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sun May 27, 2007 12:28 am

Quoting Poitin (Reply 35):
A second issue is the Airbus management structure. It is fairly clear that there are a number of different camps inside Airbus regarding the direction of the A350XWB. We have seen repeated contradictory statements from various spokespersons regarding the fuselage over the last few months. Is some ONE person in charge, or are they making decisions by consensus among dozens of different people? It appears to be the latter case, and if so, we may see even more slips over the next few years.

That is an excellent point and one which doesnt get raised too often . We often talk about technology , and what "they have" and what " they need to get" however having technology means absolutely nothing if the MANAGMENT , specially the top end people dont give the people "WITH THE TECHNOLOGY" there space and let them do what they do best . When JL announced the XWB (relaunched it) he was going great guns about how PANELS are better then BARRELS however its been what not even a year and the flip flop . I find it very hard to beleive that the Very seasoned and excellent engineers , technicians at airbus didnt know this allready however everything was being made out like airbus looked at everything ,studied barrels and have come to the conclusion that panels are more maintaince freindly yet offer the same economics as barrels . It is my own view that the airbus MANAGMENT was trying to throw the PANELS approach into the forefront because it was easier to do,and they could do it quicker , and the engineers and designers had to tell them that if they want the figures that they are expecting they would have to do things differently . Now it could well be that this is not the case and I for airbus's sake hope that it isnt but having said that if they continue like this they cannot succesffuly do this project . The MANAGMENT at the top needs to stick to what it does best and let the folks down below do what the do best or else they would still get a good plane but one that is grossly overweight and delayed simply because there was too much of "What you can do " and "what you cannot do" being thrusted upon the people that know best.
 
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sun May 27, 2007 12:47 am

I think the long term risk to Airbus was best said in the original ATO article citing anonymous sources from within Airbus that their main concern about the new EIS was "being blown away" by an all new 777 replacement, or Y3. This is something Boeing would be able to plan and launch around 2010-2011 with an EIS very close to the XWB and at a time when Boeing would have full details on all contractually promised specs of the Airbus type. IMO this leaves Boeing with an extermely competitive gameplan over the next 10 years of development. It's quite possible the cash drain of the 380 combined with the management mess and the multiple delays on the 350 will be far more damaging to Airbus than anyone would like to see.
 
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sun May 27, 2007 1:06 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 36):
Quoting Workhorse (Reply 5):
I would go even further and say that they should cancel the entire A350 program, and make an A330 update instead.

That would be a very bad idea, IMO. There was an extremely narrow gap of time in which Airbus could have pulled-off an upgraded A330, but that window is long gone. I suspect that if Airbus had begun offering the upgraded A330 the moment they new engine programs were launched, they could have locked down a few customers who weren't quite convinced of the 787's claims. But once Qantas placed their 787 order and rumors surfaced that the decision "wasn't even close," the global airlines likely cemented their view that only an all-new airplane could compete.

The A330E would not win new customers, that much is clear, but there are lots of A330 operators for whom a A330E would be an attractive choice. They already have the A330 infrastructure in terms of MX, training, pilot ratings, spare parts, so the A330E would give them some better performance -- not as good as the 787, but better than the current A330.

Since the A350 will not EIS for several years, there is a market for the A330E. Not massive, but large enough to be worth it.

I agree that Airbus needs to go full tilt on the A350, and hopefully get it into production before 2020 -- more like 2014.

Quoting Wingman (Reply 38):
I think the long term risk to Airbus was best said in the original ATO article citing anonymous sources from within Airbus that their main concern about the new EIS was "being blown away" by an all new 777 replacement, or Y3. This is something Boeing would be able to plan and launch around 2010-2011 with an EIS very close to the XWB and at a time when Boeing would have full details on all contractually promised specs of the Airbus type. IMO this leaves Boeing with an extermely competitive gameplan over the next 10 years of development.

Airbus has certainly placed themselves behind the 8 ball and given Boeing the cue. Boeing is clearly waiting on the 787-10 to see just what Airbus does do with the A350 family. I suspect that they have four or five alternative plans and they will simply chose which ever one suits their needs best.

Assuming that Boeing does need a plane bigger than the 787-10 or the mythical 787-11, they could crank out a 777 replacement in five years, giving them a 2013 or 2014 EIS for the 797. As for the 747, it will be allowed to die a graceful old age. I doubt that Boeing will build anything as large as the 747 again given the changing economic environment.
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Stitch
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sun May 27, 2007 1:15 am

Quoting Sv11 (Reply 33):
I think once the 787 enters service, Airbus will be struggling on the widebody front for a few years. The 77W has pretty much outclassed the A340 today, similar thing will happen to the A332 when the 787 enters service in 2008.

And the same will happen to the 777 when the A350 enters service.

Frankly, an A330E makes about as much sense to me as a 777E does.

The billions of dollars and thousands of man-hours needed to bring either to market would, IMO, be much better spent making the A350 lighter (so it can better cover the A332 market) and the 787 larger (so it can better cover the 777 market).
 
bringiton
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sun May 27, 2007 1:18 am

Quoting Wingman (Reply 38):
This is something Boeing would be able to plan and launch around 2010-2011 with an EIS very close to the XWB and at a time when Boeing would have full details on all contractually promised specs of the Airbus type.

Lets wait and see. The way the situation is currently the 777 is in great demand , and i bet because of the availability boeing is commanding a good price for it . However things could change say in 2012-2014 time frame , because the way things are looking the T7 would first get the challenge from boeings own 787-10 because of simple economics (airlines might order the smaller but more eff. jet as opposed to the t7) . I dont think boeing will launch the T7 in 2012 time frame . I think around 2012-2016 we will see models like 787-10 , 787-9ER etc coming into the market because that will correspond very well to the market demand aswell as replacement cycle for the early 777's . Boeing will pick a time frame when they see that the demand is going to increase or else they would be left with an aircraft 4-5 years too early . The A351 is going to come online in 2016-2017 (if the news about 12 month delay minimum is true) then boeing really doesnt need to go for a one up (size wise) on the 787 till perhaps something like 2018-2020 because that is the logical timeframe they will see as demand for the class of jet increases . It would also give engine manufacturers more time to introduce new technology and ofer greater thrust engines . The way i see it the y3 will surely happen but would be a 350-420 seater and for that we need 10 years of technology to catch up both for airbus and the engine makers. If boeing respond with a Y3 just like the A350 but a bit wider then it would be simply a "Me too" aircraft much like the A-350 looks to the 787 however inorder to leap frog they would need something that can be scaled up to 400+ with something like 8000nm range and IMHO the engine makers arent ready to offer something like 150K of thrust just yet (i'm guessing that is what would be required) .
 
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sun May 27, 2007 1:53 am

Quoting NorCal (Reply 16):
Maybe because the 787 size represents the largest portion of the widebody market. Doing nothing is a very dangerous proposition.

I agree. Airbus is practically giving away the 787-8 spot in the market, which seems to be the largest market for widebodies at the moment.

Quoting NorCal (Reply 16):
Boeing sold quite a few 737 classics (MD sold some MD-80s as well) because Airbus couldn't fill the demand for A320s but the demand for the classics didn't mean a 737NG wasn't needed.

Very well put!

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 18):
The second major problem is that Airbus simply cannot be late to the narrow body market.

 checkmark 

Quoting Workhorse (Reply 19):
I don't think Airbus will be able to make A350 and a competitive A320 replacement at the same time.

Nope. I believe you are right in this concern.Which makes me wonder how far into the future it will take us before will see an A320 replacement.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 25):
I think an A358 should be able to serve as a fine A332 replacement even though it will be bigger just as the A332 served as a fine 763ER replacement, even though it too was bigger.

But they will not have a true 787 competitor, and there will be a gap between the A321 plane and the A358.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 28):
4 years ago was NOT the "start".

I was wondering when this would come up. But 4 years from launch to EIS is impressive.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 30):
Their main problem appears to be the lack of technology for making the barrels. A while back Airbus announced that they were spending half a billion dollars on R&D in this area. I suspect that this R&D, plus knowledge of their suppliers, have made the new announcement possible, but they still have more development and design work to do than Boeing has.

Very interesting points you bring up here.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 31):
At the same time, Boeing themselves have said that such a lead is not huge enough to be worth doing until the engines come along.........

Regards

And CFM recently said they could have the engines available as early as 2012, but they say the airplane manufacturers are telling them to slow down the development of the LEAP56 program.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 36):
There was an extremely narrow gap of time in which Airbus could have pulled-off an upgraded A330, but that window is long gone.

Are you sure with the continued delay of the A350, one would believe that the window is their one more time.

Quoting Wingman (Reply 38):
I think the long term risk to Airbus was best said in the original ATO article citing anonymous sources from within Airbus that their main concern about the new EIS was "being blown away" by an all new 777 replacement, or Y3.

Very true. McNerney said that a 777 replacement or update could come before the 737 replacement.
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
jdevora
Posts: 225
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For

Sun May 27, 2007 2:48 am

Quoting OyKIE (Thread starter):
With GEnx engines the A330 should be able to take some of the market share in this segment. Maybe they could co-develop an A330 update with one of the engine OEM's and use the engine OEM resources since airbus resources are so stretched at the moment?

The 330-200F was once shown as a good moment for introduce a GEnx engine for the A330 (the 748's bleed version) but the lasted that I heard about it is: FG:Engine makers vie for A330F contract

Quote:
Flight International understands that plans for the potential GEnx application are thought to have foundered over cost and complexity of adapting the engine to the A330 wing and strut.

Airbus is selling more A330s that they can build at the moment. I don't think that they will spend a penny in an upgrade unless they are REALLY SURE that the upgrade will extend the A330's live long enough to make a difference.

Cheers
JD
 
TaromA380
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sun May 27, 2007 3:20 am

First of all, is the A350XWB REALLY delayed, after the complete composite barrel switch rumor ?
 
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Stitch
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sun May 27, 2007 3:25 am

Quoting OyKIE (Reply 42):
But (Airbus) will not have a true 787 competitor, and there will be a gap between the A321 plane and the A358.

Well they won't have a true 787-8 competitor and that is only in terms of not being able to offer so low a capacity. Based on Airbus' goals, the A350-800 will carry more passengers farther then the 787-8 will, and may enjoy better fuel burn doing it thanks to more efficient engines and wings. The A358 will have two less LD3 positions then the 787-8, but if Airbus can put as much weight in their 26 as Boeing can in their 28 thanks to that better wing and engines, it might not matter.

And Boeing has a large gap between the 737-900ER and the 787-8 and it's not hurting either at the moment...
 
Poitin
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For

Sun May 27, 2007 3:27 am

Quoting Jdevora (Reply 43):
Quoting OyKIE (Thread starter):
With GEnx engines the A330 should be able to take some of the market share in this segment. Maybe they could co-develop an A330 update with one of the engine OEM's and use the engine OEM resources since airbus resources are so stretched at the moment?

The 330-200F was once shown as a good moment for introduce a GEnx engine for the A330 (the 748's bleed version) but the lasted that I heard about it is: FG:Engine makers vie for A330F contract

It is a pity for there is much to be said for the GEnx on the A330 airframe.

Quoting Jdevora (Reply 43):
Quote:
Flight International understands that plans for the potential GEnx application are thought to have foundered over cost and complexity of adapting the engine to the A330 wing and strut.

Airbus is selling more A330s that they can build at the moment. I don't think that they will spend a penny in an upgrade unless they are REALLY SURE that the upgrade will extend the A330's live long enough to make a difference.

Unfortunately you are probably correct, much like they had to be REALLY SURE that the composite barrel was the way to go, Airbus really needs to overhaul its manangement.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
bigjku
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sun May 27, 2007 3:29 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 27):
Just to point out this is precisely how Airbus did did it in the past too, despite them having longer design cycles and being lower on cash than Boeing then as well. How this can be? By being second to the market and let the lead to the other....

To compare the past to the present it to simply ignore reality. Airbus took on a fragmented market where a lot of airplane manufactures were struggling and new designs were spread among 3 or 4 different builders. Development cycles were longer and many of the planes were really the first in their class.

As someone pointed out above, those Boeing designs were 10 or more years old at that point. The 737 has held its own with the updates, the 767 did not do too terribly and the 747 had a very good run. Airbus basically took advantage of the computer revolution and came on at the right time with the A320. They did a good job.

But the current situation does not really reflect that. Most engine improvements are both portable from one platform to another and incremental in nature so that is out.

Aerodynamics is a still evolving but I think we are reaching a point of diminishing returns as far as a tube with wings goes.

Airbus is not introducing a revolutionary new construction method, they are only copying it.

So it is not like they are going to come in with an A320 with new engines, more carbon fiber, fly by wire and superior aerodynamics to the 737 like they were able to. At best you are talking incremental improvements.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 27):

Power8 calls for a structural reorganization of Airbus and cuts design cycles short by 2 years...

Lots of restructuring plans call for lots of things. Call me when they can make it work. Right now they have proven they cannot build the A380 within 7 years or program launch after 6 years of conceptual studies leading up to it. They cannot build the A350 is less than 7-10 years depending on when you started the clock so why should I think they will get development time down for the next aircraft? Airbus has been a 7-10 year development company since it got going so until they actually design and deliver a plane in that time frame it really is nothing more than a hope that Airbus has.
 
Poitin
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sun May 27, 2007 3:49 am

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 47):
Quoting Slz396 (Reply 27):

Power8 calls for a structural reorganization of Airbus and cuts design cycles short by 2 years...

Lots of restructuring plans call for lots of things. Call me when they can make it work. Right now they have proven they cannot build the A380 within 7 years or program launch after 6 years of conceptual studies leading up to it. They cannot build the A350 is less than 7-10 years depending on when you started the clock so why should I think they will get development time down for the next aircraft? Airbus has been a 7-10 year development company since it got going so until they actually design and deliver a plane in that time frame it really is nothing more than a hope that Airbus has.

Once upon a time, Airbus was the fast moving innovative wiz-kid. Then came EADS. Is there a message there? Airbus needs to be set free of all the politics or they will falter.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
Oykie
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RE: If The A350XWB EIS Is Delayed, Is It Time For An A332update?

Sun May 27, 2007 3:57 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 45):
And Boeing has a large gap between the 737-900ER and the 787-8 and it's not hurting either at the moment...

That is true, but neither has Airbus between the A321 and A332.

Quoting Poitin (Reply 46):
Airbus really needs to overhaul its management.

{Checkmark} Amen to that
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas