n1786b
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A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Tue May 29, 2007 6:53 pm

Interesting blurb came across the wire this morning in Paris.
In French:

Airbus a des problèmes avec les clients de l'A350 (presse)
FRANCFORT, 29 mai 2007 (AFP)
Plusieurs gros clients d'Airbus demandent à l'avionneur européen, filiale d'EADS, de revoir la copie de son futur long courrier A350 XWB, rapporte le Süddeutsche Zeitung mardi.

My quick translation.

Airbus has problems with A350 customers
According to the Süddeutsche Zeitung, several important Airbus customers have asked the European constructor to go back to the drawing board with its next long-haul airplane the A350XWB.

This report and the ATW story about another redesign using composite barrels may mean we will see a major announcement at Le Bourget.

Does anybody have access to the original article in German. If so, can you let us know if there is any "new" news in it?
We all know that Airbus has denied studying the move to composite barrels (on speednews) .....

- n1786b
 
LHStarAlliance
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Tue May 29, 2007 7:21 pm

Here is the link :

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/,tt3m2/wirtschaft/artikel/133/116017/


Clark again one of those ...  Yeah sure  Yeah sure


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Thorben
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Tue May 29, 2007 7:22 pm

France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
Beaucaire
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Tue May 29, 2007 7:24 pm

That "news" is not really new,since discussed to death in various other threads already since one week...
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chiad
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Tue May 29, 2007 7:27 pm

How much need is there for a major "re-drawing" at this stage just because a full composite barrel was chosen?
I know that a nose job, adopting the A380 nose, might require some attention, but the full composite barrel would "only" apply to the skin surface keeping the same inner and outer shape of the fuselage ... no?
 
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SEPilot
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Tue May 29, 2007 7:32 pm

While we have been discussing this at great length on another thread ATWonline: A350 To Go Barrel Composite Fuselage (by 2wingtips May 25 2007 in Civil Aviation)
this does shed new light on the topic. I have been expecting it, as I have noted how few original A350 customers have formally committed to the XWB. If I had been buying airliners I certainly would have made the same point, and insisted that Airbus go with the full barrel approach, primarily from a maintenance perspective. Hopefully Airbus will finally get it right.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
keesje
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Tue May 29, 2007 7:38 pm

The design freeze would be summer 2008, EIS 2013?

Many adjustments can be expected, no doubt being labelled "new version" here on a.net...  Big grin
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11Bravo
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Tue May 29, 2007 7:51 pm

Quoting Chiad (Reply 4):
How much need is there for a major "re-drawing" at this stage just because a full composite barrel was chosen?
I know that a nose job, adopting the A380 nose, might require some attention, but the full composite barrel would "only" apply to the skin surface keeping the same inner and outer shape of the fuselage ... no?

It would likely result in a redesign of most of the fuselage. The internal structure would be very different.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 6):
Many adjustments can be expected, no doubt being labelled "new version" here on a.net...

....adjustment? Gimme a break Keesje.  Yeah sure

Switching from panels to barrels would be a sea change. It would clearly be yet another version requiring major redesign, and I strongly suspect a significant EIS delay.
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SEPilot
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Tue May 29, 2007 8:01 pm

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 7):

It would likely result in a redesign of most of the fuselage. The internal structure would be very different.

 checkmark 
The saving grace is that I suspect that not too much detail design has been done at this stage; however, it is a MAJOR design change. But the impact will not be so much on engineering, it will be on manufacturing. Astuteman has pointed out on the aforementioned thread and elsewhere that Airbus must now line up the suppliers, and they have to get the equipment, to build the barrels. Airbus obviously had a pretty good idea how they were going to build the panels; now they are back to square 1. I cannot see how this will not impact EIS.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
Thorben
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Tue May 29, 2007 8:02 pm

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 7):
Switching from panels to barrels would be a sea change. It would clearly be yet another version requiring major redesign, and I strongly suspect a significant EIS delay.

Why? Still six years to go until 2013. The real problem would be the investment into the necessary infrastructure and machinery.
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
11Bravo
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Tue May 29, 2007 8:40 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 9):
Why?

...because it's a major change both in terms of the design itself, and more importantly, the production process as you suggest.

On one of the many earlier versions of the A350, Airbus changed the flightdeck and crew rest layout and that resulted in a one year shift in EIS. This change is much more complex than that by any measure. I'll bet we're looking at a two year delay, at least, with this major change from panels to barrels.

At least they only signed six additional firm orders for the "XWB" that they will have to renegotiate along with the rest from the original set of customers.
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SeJoWa
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RE: Mr. Aboulafia's Advice To Eads On Power 8

Tue May 29, 2007 8:45 pm

Just some notes on the original article in the Sueddeutsche - there's been so much speculation on a.net and the industry in general that the reported rumours should be rendered precisely :

Customers not satisfied with rejigged A350

According to (our?) informations Airlines Emirates, Singapore, Qatar and ILSC (sic) among others are asking Airbus to build the A350 out of big parts made in one piece (id est, barrels).

...


Airbus is planning, unlike Boeing, to build the plane with panels. Critics think maintenance would be markedly higher.
Clark thinks "at length, we will choose the construction in sections" ("Wir werden deswegen auf Dauer auch den Sektionsansatz wählen").

"We are working on the basis of the known Designs" says an Airbus spokeswoman (maybe Madame Kracht?).
She denied rumours that Airbus would announce a change in strategy (?) at LeBourget already (sic)

...

"EIS is important, but the design too must me done right" says Clark.

...

---

It's really very hard to extract anything meaningful from all this noise, and should not be allowed to happen.

I'd like to append an excerpt from a widely circulated article in theChicago Tribune:.

Initially, Boeing and its partners explored making each barrel of the 7E7's fuselage out of several large composite panels that would be bolted together to form a cylinder. That's the way aluminum planes are made.

One by one, however, the engineers began to see that this didn't make much sense. Bolting panels together means the edges of those panels have to be made thicker to accommodate the bolts. Not only would that add weight, but it would also require lots of seams and joints. Those connections would fatigue like aluminum and require regular rounds of expensive maintenance.

"When you got right down to it, there was no advantage," Statkus said. "It was like black aluminum. If it's just a panel here and a panel here and a panel here all bolted down, it's just like metal."

The more Boeing studied it, the more obvious the ideal solution became. If the engineers could invent a way to make a single, monolithic piece of composite for each barrel, the benefits would be enormous. Not only would single-piece barrels make for a lighter-weight airplane, they also would ensure that manufacturing one would be cheaper and faster. No rivets. No assembly. No expensive tools to hold pieces in place while they were being bolted together.

Once Statkus and the other converts saw the possibilities, there was no turning back.

So Statkus sequestered engineers from Boeing and its partners in a room filled with clay, cardboard and other modeling materials. Their mandate: Come up with a way to build a one-piece barrel.

"We only opened the door to give them doughnuts," Statkus said with a laugh.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/techno...techtopheds-hed&ctrack=1&cset=true

----
 
DAYflyer
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Tue May 29, 2007 9:07 pm

Quoting SeJoWa (Reply 11):
Customers not satisfied with rejigged A350

According to (our?) informations Airlines Emirates, Singapore, Qatar and ILSC (sic) among others are asking Airbus to build the A350 out of big parts made in one piece (id est, barrels)

This is a huge validation of the Boeing position regarding design. The 787 is indeed a game changer, and now Airbus is finally perhaps getting the mesage from the customers. They had better listen, because by the time they get this design finished and EIS of around 2014-15, Boeing could very well have announced Y3 and a replacement for the 737, leaving Airbus far behind.
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cygnuschicago
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 12:47 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 12):
This is a huge validation of the Boeing position regarding design. The 787 is indeed a game changer

Yea, maybe, but if they feel so strongly about it, why don't they just order 787's?
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Stitch
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 12:50 am

Spiegel Online is reporting much the same - http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,485374,00.html.

While Airbus spokesfolk continue to deny they are moving from panels to barrels, that QR still says they intend to sign at Paris leads me to believe Airbus probably has decided to go to barrels and will announce so at Paris in conjunction with the QR order.
 
flyabr
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 1:06 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 13):
Yea, maybe, but if they feel so strongly about it, why don't they just order 787's?

because the 787 needs a valid competitor to keep prices in check!!!
 
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SEPilot
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 1:06 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 13):
Yea, maybe, but if they feel so strongly about it, why don't they just order 787's?

Most of them are; but many (or most) want Airbus to stay in the game, which may not happen if they stick to the panel approach. I believe this is why only one customer for the old A350 has signed on to the XWB; I think all the others are holding out for barrels. On the other thread on this topic Der Spiegel is reporting that Airbus is emphatically denying going to barrels; I think they are digging their own grave with their tongues.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
Poitin
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 1:09 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
While Airbus spokesfolk continue to deny they are moving from panels to barrels, that QR still says they intend to sign at Paris leads me to believe Airbus probably has decided to go to barrels and will announce so at Paris in conjunction with the QR order.

Well, what do you expect for Airbus PR? Every major change that occurred was deigned right up until the time it happen. We will have to wait for the Paris Airshow. My contact in the airline industry says that Airbus is really, really under the gun to announce the final and definitive version of the A350 at the show. If they don't then watch the stampede to the Boeing chateau.

The Paris Airshow is make or break for the A350, from what I am hearing.
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DAYflyer
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 1:13 am

Quoting Poitin (Reply 17):
The Paris Airshow is make or break for the A350, from what I am hearing.

And they may well anounce a large number of orders at the event, given that the entire progamme is under such pressure....
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Beta
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 1:17 am

Quoting Poitin (Reply 17):
My contact in the airline industry says that Airbus is really, really under the gun to announce the final and definitive version of the A350 at the show. If they don't then watch the stampede to the Boeing chateau.

The Paris Airshow is make or break for the A350, from what I am hearing.

Interesting. Thanks for the info. It will definitely make Le Bourget fun to follow this year.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 1:17 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 18):

And they may well anounce a large number of orders at the event, given that the entire progamme is under such pressure....

But the same Spiegel article is quoting those very customers that are expected to place the big orders as being the ones that are unhappy with the panel approach.

Quoting Poitin (Reply 17):
My contact in the airline industry says that Airbus is really, really under the gun to announce the final and definitive version of the A350 at the show. If they don't then watch the stampede to the Boeing chateau.

To me this means that if Airbus sticks with panels they bolt. I would too.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
474218
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 1:19 am

Quoting Chiad (Reply 4):
How much need is there for a major "re-drawing" at this stage just because a full composite barrel was chosen?
I know that a nose job, adopting the A380 nose, might require some attention, but the full composite barrel would "only" apply to the skin surface keeping the same inner and outer shape of the fuselage ... no?

A "re-drawing" never heard a major redesign stated in such casual term? Lets say you are building a house, the design calls two bedrooms and one bath, then the the builders says now I want three bedrooms and two baths. Do you tell him all thats required is a "re-drawing?"
 
DAYflyer
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 1:19 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 13):
Yea, maybe, but if they feel so strongly about it, why don't they just order 787's?

I believe SIA did, but I could be wrong.
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bigjku
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 1:20 am

I am really curious how much cost cutting and appeasing the labor groups has to do with the support for the panel approach by Airbus.

There are really only two obvious benefits to this approach with the primary one being it will work with their existing infrastructure and thus will minimize cost as much as possible. Going to Boeing's approach will entail new transportation methods, lots of new tooling and a very large cost if they try to do most of it in Europe.

There is also the hidden threat to lots of peoples jobs which Airbus may or may not be able to overcome. How many people are employed to manufacture an A350XWB with panels vs without. I would suspect the answer is that a riveted panel approach will have labor a lot closer to the A330 than to the 787. More than engineering that was my biggest concern with the plane. The hours spent building and maintaing such an aircraft would seem to be far more than that spent on the 787.

I think to make the Boeing approach work you need to have substantial sub-contracting and, to get the full benefit, you need to shed workforce across the entire production process. We don't have exact numbers of how many fewer people are building the 787 vs the 767 or 777 but that number is substantially less. Can Airbus which needs Power 8 just to make ends meet really come out and propose a construction method that will cut down on the labor force even further?
 
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SEPilot
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 1:25 am

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 23):
I think to make the Boeing approach work you need to have substantial sub-contracting and, to get the full benefit, you need to shed workforce across the entire production process. We don't have exact numbers of how many fewer people are building the 787 vs the 767 or 777 but that number is substantially less. Can Airbus which needs Power 8 just to make ends meet really come out and propose a construction method that will cut down on the labor force even further?

But there will still be more jobs available than if Airbus can't sell a significant number of A350's, which is the present situation.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
grantcv
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 1:30 am

Quoting Beta (Reply 19):
The Paris Airshow is make or break for the A350, from what I am hearing.


What would an airshow be without an A350 redesign? Wouldn't going to a full composite fuselage, built the Boeing way - in large pre-assembled units, require a lot of new technology development on Airbus' part? And what about working around Boeing patents in these areas? Boeing got to do a lot of development of these technologies, quietly, before the 787 was announced, but Airbus has to do this in parallel with A350 development which can do nothing but add complexity and risk. And it means a replacement for the Beluga and a production line separate from the A330/A340.
 
bigjku
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 1:31 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 24):
But there will still be more jobs available than if Airbus can't sell a significant number of A350's, which is the present situation.

Oh I agree that is a rational take on it, but no one ever said Unions and, most importantly, the politicians who get their support from union members, are rational. I can almost promise that an announcement that the A330/A340 line is winding down to be replaced by the A350 and by the way pretty much none of you are needed anymore will be fought very hard by the unions, especially if they play nice on Power 8 first as they seem to be doing.
 
cygnuschicago
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 1:36 am

Quoting FlyABR (Reply 15):
because the 787 needs a valid competitor to keep prices in check!!!

I've heard this before, but I don't think airlines are charitable organizations. They're not going to operate an inefficient fleet for an extra half decade just to give Airbus time. If they feel the 787 is right for them, they'll buy it, regardless of what Airbus does.
If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
 
Ken777
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 1:37 am

I'm in the camp that believes they will change to barrels.

Now the question is will they change the size? Specifically make it "a little larger' as JL would say, bringing it head to head with the 777s? (EK does like their planes to be a bit bigger.) That would leave room for another plane later, between the revised 320 and the 350. Can we say Z1, Z2 and Z3?
 
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SEPilot
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 1:38 am

Quoting Grantcv (Reply 25):
What would an airshow be without an A350 redesign? Wouldn't going to a full composite fuselage, built the Boeing way - in large pre-assembled units, require a lot of new technology development on Airbus' part? And what about working around Boeing patents in these areas? Boeing got to do a lot of development of these technologies, quietly, before the 787 was announced, but Airbus has to do this in parallel with A350 development which can do nothing but add complexity and risk. And it means a replacement for the Beluga and a production line separate from the A330/A340.

Very good points; the patent discussion has been extensively discussed on the other thread on this topic. But what is the point in bringing an apparently inferior product to market that nobody wants to buy? It certainly won't be easy, but if Airbus does not get the A350 right their future does not look good. Boeing is certain to come out with Y1 by 2016 at the latest, which will bury the A320. The only hope for Airbus if that happens will be that Boeing won't be able to build enough planes to meet the demand. Not a good place to be in.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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Stitch
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 2:29 am

Quoting 474218 (Reply 21):
A "re-drawing" never heard a major redesign stated in such casual term? Lets say you are building a house, the design calls two bedrooms and one bath, then the the builders says now I want three bedrooms and two baths. Do you tell him all thats required is a "re-drawing?"

If you're still working with the architect on the plan and haven't laid any foundation - which is true here - then yes.  Smile

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 23):
I am really curious how much cost cutting and appeasing the labor groups has to do with the support for the panel approach by Airbus.

I don't know how much labor is involved in attaching the interior braces to the fuselage (is it done by hand or machine?), but the barrels themselves are made with just one or two tape-laying machine operators.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 2:37 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 30):
I don't know how much labor is involved in attaching the interior braces to the fuselage (is it done by hand or machine?), but the barrels themselves are made with just one or two tape-laying machine operators.

I think the point is that the panel approach involves far more labor at final assembly, as they have to be attached together and attached to the frames, while the barrels just get joined at the ends. But even more important is that the barrels )at least the way Boeing is doing it) come pre-stuffed with most of the internal components, and this is really where the labor differences would be.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
flyabr
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 2:42 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 27):
I've heard this before, but I don't think airlines are charitable organizations. They're not going to operate an inefficient fleet for an extra half decade just to give Airbus time. If they feel the 787 is right for them, they'll buy it, regardless of what Airbus does.

i suspect there are a number of airlines that would wait 5 years to get a comparable 787 aircraft from airbus if there were some big discounts involved...

the longer it takes airbus to figure out the A350...the tighter supply of the 787 becomes...and the less willing boeing will be to deal. supply and demand...
 
kaitak
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 2:44 am

So, to summarise, the basic problem is with the construction, rather than the actual aircraft itself. When it is said that Airbus needs to go back to the drawing board, it's not really the design of the aircraft that's at fault, but rather HOW it will be built, i.e. as a barrel or in different panels?

Will this redesign, if it takes place, cause any material difference to the aircraft itself, i.e. fuselage width, length etc etc?

Apologies if this has been answered already, but I'm just trying to clarify my understanding of the issue!
 
osiris30
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 2:50 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 33):
So, to summarise, the basic problem is with the construction, rather than the actual aircraft itself.

Kinda/sorta/maybe LOL

The problem is the barrel approach is supposedly MUCH lower maintenance over the life of an aircraft than any panel/skin approach. Whether that's construction or the aircraft itself is open for debate.

Plus panels will result in higher manufacturing costs (again at least in theory) so more expensive aircraft for airlines to purchase.

Going barrels would likely be better for Airbus in the long run.
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EI321
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 2:53 am

Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 1):
Clark again one of those ...

After just telling us that it has closed the gap with the 787? I smell something that starts with s and ends with t.

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 7):
Quoting Keesje (Reply 6):
Many adjustments can be expected, no doubt being labelled "new version" here on a.net...

....adjustment? Gimme a break Keesje.

Actually yes. Design freeze will not be for another year at least.
 
airbazar
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 2:54 am

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 7):
Switching from panels to barrels would be a sea change. It would clearly be yet another version requiring major redesign, and I strongly suspect a significant EIS delay.

You're assuming they haven't already been working on it behind closed doors, for quite some time. EIS is still 6 years away. There's still plenty of time. Having said that, I bet some customers may be getting pretty impacient with this tactic by now.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 2:55 am

Quoting FlyABR (Reply 32):
i suspect there are a number of airlines that would wait 5 years to get a comparable 787 aircraft from airbus if there were some big discounts involved...

But it will help Airbus not one whit if they have to give huge discounts to get people to wait and thus cannot make any money.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
NAV20
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 3:01 am

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 36):
EIS is still 6 years away. There's still plenty of time.

There's a bit of 'chicken and egg' there, Airbazar. The 6 years to EIS are the problem, not the solution.

What are Airbus going to build and sell to generate enough profit to keep everyone employed for those six years - AND pay the enormous cost of developing whichever kind of A350 they finally decide to build?
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
cygnuschicago
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 3:22 am

Quoting FlyABR (Reply 32):
i suspect there are a number of airlines that would wait 5 years to get a comparable 787 aircraft from airbus if there were some big discounts involved...

I don't really buy into this argument. Airlines are not going to sit around and wait for an Airbus aircraft for three reasons:

1) In practice, we've seen that large "cost of ownership" discounts couldn't move the A340's when facing off against the 777. A big discount is not going to keep an airliner hanging around for an A350, which is not even in design freeze
2) Currently, Airlines and still contract for a 787 for delivery 3 years before the A350, and at prices equal or lower than the A350
3) Airbus does not really have the loyal customers that Boeing has. In fact, the "major loyal Airbus customers" (excluding EK) have already jumped ship to Boeing

To mean, "validation" of the 787 means that the remaining majors will grab up those 787 slots before AA and Delta lock them up. So, the question is, why hasn't this happened. I can think of only two reasons. Firstly, the A350 really does promise a significant leap over the 787, and some majors are prepared to take the risk of waiting, rather than signing for 787-9s and pushing Boeing for a 787-10, or secondly, the 2012 - 2015 production slots for 787s have already been "locked up" in a pre-order deal with AA and / or Delta.

What do you think? Thoughts?
(oh, and I'm really hoping my hypothesis on AA/Delta is correct  bouncy  )
If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
 
blackknight
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 3:31 am

Sounds like a second 787 line somewhere is needed. I wonder if Boeing made the commitment @ Paris what the effect would be?
BK
 
bringiton
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 3:37 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 39):
What do you think? Thoughts?

My thoughts , Point by point

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 39):
A big discount is not going to keep an airliner hanging around for an A350, which is not even in design freeze

Airbus wont be in a position to give big discounts , as the have to cover the 10 billion euro cost of development . Moreover had airbus just wanted to discount there way to market share then they would have done better with the XNB .

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 39):
So, the question is, why hasn't this happened. I can think of only two reasons. Firstly, the A350 really does promise a significant leap over the 787, and some majors are prepared to take the risk of waiting, rather than signing for 787-9s and pushing Boeing for a 787-10, or secondly, the 2012 - 2015 production slots for 787s have already been "locked up" in a pre-order deal with AA and / or Delta.

Those arent the only 2 reasons . Zvevda is quite good at reasoning and he can offer you more , but I'll give you some -

* Some airlines dont want to decide before they have seen what the 350 will eventually become , because they simply want a more suitable aircraft and the 350 is as fluid as anything right now

* Some airlines need deliveries in the 2014-2016 timeframe and therefore they can wait until maybe late this year or 1st quarter next year to decide

* Some airlines want a mix of the 787 and 350


* They are waiting for the market to heat up and put some pricing pressure on the 787 to get a better deal ( and vice versa with the 787-10 varient)

* Yet others are not deciding because they want to influence the makers to make there aircrafts bigger , more bigger and gigantic  Wink
 
bigjku
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 3:43 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 30):
I don't know how much labor is involved in attaching the interior braces to the fuselage (is it done by hand or machine?), but the barrels themselves are made with just one or two tape-laying machine operators.

That is not really the full extent of what I am talking about. Panels of CFRP can be moved and presumably manufactured at the existing facilities that Airbus has. While I am sure the actual process of making the Panels will be similar to what Boeing is doing the business side of it, if they decide on panels will be quite different. Due to earlier work on composites much of it could be kept in house and utilize existing labor.

If they decide to go the barrel approach then the problem as I see it is they would face hugh infrastructure expense to set it up in their internal system. That means that a good deal of contracting would be the most efficient way to do it. However that means ticking off the labor groups.

There would appear to me to be some labor savings at every level of the process to take the Boeing approach. Airbus has a problem in that they can do this but that would mean either subcontracting, which would really agitate their labor groups, or it would mean a very large capital investment into the A350 program. No clue how much the 787 cost to develope if you were to include the cost incured by the subcontractors but I bet it is substantially more than just the Boeing number.
 
bringiton
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 3:46 am

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 42):
. No clue how much the 787 cost to develope if you were to include the cost incured by the subcontractors but I bet it is substantially more than just the Boeing number.

The number that usually gets thrown around is 10 billion Dollars , out of which boeing spent 6 billion and the partners the remaining 4 . Plus they went about a billion over if one also includes the extra money for 748 program .
 
Morvious
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 3:55 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 39):
Airbus does not really have the loyal customers that Boeing has. In fact, the "major loyal Airbus customers" (excluding EK) have already jumped ship to Boeing

What is Royal in this world?

Air Canada for example changed their A345 and A343 fleet to a Boeing fleet with B777's and B787's (I'm not shure about the A332 but my guess is that they will also be replaced). Easyjet had a giant B737 fleet but changed to an A319 fleet and SQ tricked us last year to lease many A330 planes with the A350 for the future.

In other words, they look into the future and buy planes what suits them best. It isn't something royal.

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 39):
I can think of only two reasons.

I can think of another one!!
What if all the other carriers don't need to buy something right now and are happy with their current future plans for the moment?
have a good day, Stefan van Hierden
 
AirSpare
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 4:01 am

I didn't comment on the first thread, I'll do 2 p on this one.

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 23):
that will cut down

exactly what they need, some flights from Spirit who has room for expansion.

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 39):
and some majors are prepared to take the risk of waiting,

I'd say it has some to do with the banks also, and their shareholders.

The question I've found most interesting and least discussed is the extent of technical redesign, there are so many subsytems, engine bleed, gust motion suppresion (b's system seems pretty cool with pressure sensors that will command control surface movement before gusts overcome aircraft interia and the ride gets bumpy), pylons. Window size, cabin altitude, all of the performance specs that will be compared. We'll have to wait and see how far they go, would it be cool to see some 748 cargo deliveries from Spirit?

I like the size that A is working on and think it's a good fit for the EIS, a 772 replacement (depending on the spec of the qtr). Then as the same with T7 program, grow it into larger 77W types. Sounds like a tough road to hoe but that's what they chose.

good luck to those guys!
Get someone else for your hero worship fetish
 
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SEPilot
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 4:04 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 39):
To mean, "validation" of the 787 means that the remaining majors will grab up those 787 slots before AA and Delta lock them up. So, the question is, why hasn't this happened. I can think of only two reasons. Firstly, the A350 really does promise a significant leap over the 787, and some majors are prepared to take the risk of waiting, rather than signing for 787-9s and pushing Boeing for a 787-10, or secondly, the 2012 - 2015 production slots for 787s have already been "locked up" in a pre-order deal with AA and / or Delta.

I believe that the primary reason is that the airlines are HOPING that Airbus will deliver a competitive plane with the A350, and are willing to give them some time to do so. The fact that so few have jumped on board so far indicates to me that they haven't done so yet. If Airbus sticks to the panel approach I would expect a very large flurry of orders for the 787, probably including EK and QR. If Airbus would make the switch they would then have a plane that at the very minimum is competitive with the 787 and possibly superior. But as you said, as long as it is perceived to be inferior in any significant way discounts alone will not move it.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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glideslope
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 4:08 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 6):
The design freeze would be summer 2008, EIS 2013?

Many adjustments can be expected, no doubt being labelled "new version" here on a.net...

Impossible. IMO, design freeze late 2008 under ideal conditions. EIS 2015.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
Ahab
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 4:18 am

Quoting BlackKnight (Reply 40):
Sounds like a second 787 line somewhere is needed. I wonder if Boeing made the commitment @ Paris what the effect would be?

If a second line were to open up for the 787, I would like it to be at the Boeing’s Long Beach Manufacturing Plant. Coincide with some KC787’s too? Impractical and Improbable?  yes 
 
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SEPilot
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RE: A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?

Wed May 30, 2007 4:24 am

Quoting Ahab (Reply 48):

If a second line were to open up for the 787, I would like it to be at the Boeing’s Long Beach Manufacturing Plant. Coincide with some KC787’s too? Impractical and Improbable?

This talk of a second 787 line is WAY premature. If Boeing achieves its goal of assembling one in 3 days they will be able to assemble over 20 per month from one line. It's the suppliers who will be unable to supply enough parts; that is the bottleneck.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler