OldAeroGuy
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What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 1:14 am

Airbus has said that the A350XWB is designed to compete with both the 787 and the 777. However, consider this points based on the information available on the A350XWB:

1) The A358 based on its passenger count is most closely comparable to the 789.

2) The most numerous sold version of the 787 is the 788 with 410 orders (other orders are 783 @ 43 and 789 @ 114) through the end of April '07.

3) The A358 will follow the A359 to market by at least a year.

4) The A359 is comparable to the 772ER/LR in passenger count.

5) The wing area of the A350 is larger than that of the 773ER, 442 sq m vs 427.8 sq m even though the A3510 MTOW is considerably less (295t vs 351.5t) See the thread below for a discussion of A350 wing area.
A350 Wing Area (by WingedMigrator May 6 2007 in Tech Ops)

From the above information, it appears to me that the A350 is meant to compete with two Boeing models, but these two models are the 777 and the Y3. Sizing and timing indicate that the presently described A350 series will cover the 777 market primarily, with no attempt to counter the area where the 787 has had the bulk of its sales, ie the -3/-8. In addition, the A350 wing is sized to allow considerable growth beyond the A3510. This looks like a preemptive strike against a Boeing launch of the Y3.

Comments?
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jacobin777
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 1:20 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Thread starter):
2) The most numerous sold version of the 787 is the 788 with 410 orders (other orders are 783 @ 43 and 789 @ 114) through the end of April '07.

The B789 did come out much later than the B788, and recent sales of the B787 series suggests (I'll use that term loosely) that B789 will possibly sell just as well. This suggests (again, I'll use the term loosely) that the A358 as the lower end of the A350 model will do quite well.

However, I think the A359 will probably be the best selling A350 model followed by the A358.
"Up the Irons!"
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 1:27 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 1):
The B789 did come out much later than the B788, and recent sales of the B787 series suggests (I'll use that term loosely) that B789 will possibly sell just as well. This suggests (again, I'll use the term loosely) that the A358 as the lower end of the A350 model will do quite well.

Based on Jan - April '07 sales, the 787-8 has outsold the -9, 92 to 27, over 3 to 1. As noted above, Airbus has no ready answer to the -8 other than discounted A330's.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
NAV20
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 1:28 am

I'm probably over-simplifying, but my impression is that Airbus finds itself in the position of having to produce one aeroplane to compete with two Boeing products. So they've aimed the A350 between the two - carrying more passengers than most marques of 787s, carrying fewer than most 777 models - and hope to 'make a market' for their own offering in the 'gap' between the two.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 1:38 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 3):
So they've aimed the A350 between the two - carrying more passengers than most marques of 787s, carrying fewer than most 777 models - and hope to 'make a market' for their own offering in the 'gap' between the two.

The problem is that they have picked a wing area that is larger than their largest competitor in these two markets. This is not necessary based on their projected MTOW and makes it even harder to compete at the low end of the market or even fill the gap. Why would they do this unless they intended to grow to reach a market space with a larger passenger count than the larger competitor?
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
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zeke
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 1:42 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 3):
carrying fewer than most 777 models

350-900 carries more than the 772, 350-1000 is very close to the 773, even closer if you increase the seat pitch of the 773 to be the same as the 350.
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jacobin777
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 1:44 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 2):
Based on Jan - April '07 sales, the 787-8 has outsold the -9, 92 to 27, over 3 to 1. As noted above, Airbus has no ready answer to the -8 other than discounted A330's.

..again, the B787-8 series was being offered much earlier than the -9. Take a look at recent B787 sales, IIRC, the majority have been for the -9.


..while the A358 might not "directly compete" with the B787-8, if a carrier is looking for a family of planes, costs, m/x, future growth rates, ect. the A358 might be a better solution.
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slz396
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 1:55 am

I think it is unfair to say the A350 goes after 2 markets at the same time, since it will be covering a continuous segment of the market just like most of the planes really. Just because Boeing has decided to position its own products in such a way that they will cover this specific segment of the market with 2 planes, doesn't make the A350 plane spanning 2 different markets.

Saying so just proves you are looking at the market purely from a Boeing perspective.

If we were to do the same from an Airbus perspective for instance, we'd see that Boeing is also trying to compete with 2 products of Airbus at the same time with their 777, nl the A333 and the A340, yet this is a comment you never hear, mainly because it is just as pointless as the above remark on the A350 really.

As a side note:
If there is one plane aimed at 2 different markets at the same time, it surely is the 787, with on one side the much discussed 787-8/9/10 long haul products (competing with the fabulous A330) and on the other hand the 787-3 aimed at replacing the medium haul A300; the way in which Boeing intends to cover those 2 different markets with one plane is in essence the same as the main structural differences between the A300/A330: wing span.

The failure to find any real takers apart from 2 Japanese airlines which were in the bag even before the plane was launched and the latest news Boeing isn't even going to present the 787-3 for certification to EASA probably mean there isn't much left from this original idea... a real pity IMO since I have a weak spot for re-usable designs like the A300/A330/A340 fuselage, the A330/A340 wing, the Airbus cockpits, the 767/777 nose section etc

[Edited 2007-06-03 18:59:29]
 
2175301
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 2:02 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Thread starter):
In addition, the A350 wing is sized to allow considerable growth beyond the A3510. This looks like a preemptive strike against a Boeing launch of the Y3.

There might be some truth to that. But, and I think this is a big but...; it depends on the AL frame/panel approach working out to be nearly as good, equal, or better than the Boeing barrel approach.

If Boeing does not execute the barrel approach properely it will likely be a huge win for Airbus. However, if the Boeing barell approach is executed right and if it is a real winner in overall service and maintenance cost.... The Airbus A350 will not be very competitive with the older 789/10 not to mention the future Y3.

Overall though, there is a logic on Airbus making a bet like your theory. Given their current difficulties; lets hope that they can execute well on such a bet. Otherwise, I don't see much future for Airbus in 15-20 years - not even in the A320 family as China and others are likely to enter that market in a big way to compete with Boeing and Airbus for planes in this market (note: I doubt there is a market for more than 250 - 300 A380's in the world - and would not be surprised if in the end the realy usefulll market for the A380 is about 100 - 150 aircraft).
 
karan69
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 2:08 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 6):
gain, the B787-8 series was being offered much earlier than the -9. Take a look at recent B787 sales, IIRC, the majority have been for the -9.

I quite agree, because the 788 hit the peak of the 767 replacement market.

The 789 will hit the peak of the lower end of the 777 replacement market which should be around the 2010-2012 mark.

The 359 is very well placed for the 772ER replacement markets unfortunately a majority of the replacement airlines are Boeing loyalist like AA UA etc,

Karan
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 2:14 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 6):
Take a look at recent B787 sales, IIRC, the majority have been for the -9.

The first 4 months of '07 aren't recent sales? As I said, in this time period, the -8 has over a 3 to 1 edge.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 5):
350-1000 is very close to the 773, even closer if you increase the seat pitch of the 773 to be the same as the 350.

In a nine abreast configuration, the A350XWB has an 17.5" seat while the 777 has an 18.5" seat. One way you can get away with a narrower seat is to increase the pitch. This what Emirates does on their 10 A/B 777's to make a 17.0" seat tolerable and what Airbus does for the A3510 17.5" seat.

While you could increase the 773ER pitch to get closer to the A3510 seat count, you wouldn't be flying at the same comfort level. The 777 would be much more comfortable.

[Edited 2007-06-03 19:43:01]
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OldAeroGuy
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 2:25 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 7):
Just because Boeing has decided to position its own products in such a way that they will cover this specific segment of the market with 2 planes, doesn't make the A350 plane spanning 2 different markets.

Funny, I'm not the only one that has said this.

http://www.leeham.net/filelib/ScottsColumn071806.pdf

Besides, Airbus has said the same thing. See the Leahy quote on page 2 in this article.

http://www.leeham.net/filelib/Leahy.pdf

I think the main question is what two markets the A350XWB is spanning. Why to you think the A350XWB wing is larger than that of a 777 if the A350XWB will compete with the 787?
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
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zeke
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 2:43 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 10):

In a nine abreast configuration, the A350XWB has an 17.5" seat while the 777 has an 18.5" seat. On way you can get away with a narrower seat is to increase the pitch. This what Emirates does on their 10 A/B 777's to make a 17.0" seat tolerable and what Airbus does for the A3510 17.5" seat.

While you could increase the 773ER pitch to get closer to the A3510 seat count, you wouldn't be flying at the same comfort level. The 777 would be much more comfortable.

Pitch is the distance between rows.

The 350 can have 18.5" seats, it just narrows the isle.
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OldAeroGuy
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 3:15 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 12):
Pitch is the distance between rows.

Duh

Quoting Zeke (Reply 12):
The 350 can have 18.5" seats, it just narrows the isle.

And how are you going to get a service cart down an aisle that is less than 15" wide? Or does the A350XWB have a unique smaller width cart?

[Edited 2007-06-03 20:16:02]
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
EI321
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 3:24 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 5):
Quoting NAV20 (Reply 3):
carrying fewer than most 777 models

350-900 carries more than the 772

Only slightly though. I think CASM will be much more important. For instance, both the A350-800 & A350-900 are bigger than their predecessors (A332,333,343) but the lower CASM will by and large offset the slight increase in passenger capacity. Same same applies to the 787 being bigger than its predecessor (767).
 
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 3:27 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Thread starter):
From the above information, it appears to me that the A350 is meant to compete with two Boeing models, but these two models are the 777 and the Y3

I think that's a somewhat simplistic view. The only plane the A350 doesn't directly compete with is the 787-8. It certainly competes with the -9 and -10.
As per your quoted thread, the wing optimised for the whole range adds c. 3t to the OEW.
The extra 3t or so OEW of the A358 vs the 789, offset by slightly better engine SFC, results in the A358 being (we think, but don't know) fractionally less capable than the 789, but with the same fuel burn.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 1):
The B789 did come out much later than the B788, and recent sales of the B787 series suggests (I'll use that term loosely) that B789 will possibly sell just as well.

The thing that makes me think the A358/B789 models popular in the long run is that a) they have lower CASM than the 788, and b) they offer some 50% more avaialble seat mile capability than the A330-200 whilst burning less fuel (no more fuel, even than a 767 on a 6 000Nm mission).
Airlines CAN have their cake and eat it with these planes.

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 4):
The problem is that they have picked a wing area that is larger than their largest competitor in these two markets. This is not necessary based on their projected MTOW and makes it even harder to compete at the low end of the market or even fill the gap. Why would they do this unless they intended to grow to reach a market space with a larger passenger count than the larger competitor?



Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 11):
Why to you think the A350XWB wing is larger than that of a 777 if the A350XWB will compete with the 787?

For me, the primary reason that the wings have grown, relative to the MTOW, is that they can.
I believe that CFRP moves the trade-off point between wing span and weight significantly.
The "old" A350 had the A330's wing in CFRP, but IMO one of the biggest strengths of the 787 was a much bigger wing, designed from the outset to take full advantage of CFRP construction, and yet take advantage of the benefits a bigger wing provides.
The A350XWB wing obviously also takes this route.
I expect Y3 to have a wingspan near-on the same as the A380, despite being way lighter, for the same reason.

If you look carefully, the ratio of wing area to MTOW is the same for the 245t 787's as it is for the 295t A350-1000.
I don't think that's an accident.

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 8):
Overall though, there is a logic on Airbus making a bet like your theory

It's just an opinion, but I think that Airbus have aimed at the "sweet-spot" where the combination of aircraft price, aircraft margin, and sales volume provide (in theory) maximum profit.
The 788 may sell lots, but it's not particularly high value, and probably carries lower margin.
The A350XWB-1000 is very high value, and high margin, but won't be the largest numerical seller.
The A358/A358, B789/B7810 are positioned right in the middle
Just my  twocents 

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OldAeroGuy
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 3:56 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 7):
If we were to do the same from an Airbus perspective for instance, we'd see that Boeing is also trying to compete with 2 products of Airbus at the same time with their 777, nl the A333 and the A340, yet this is a comment you never hear, mainly because it is just as pointless as the above remark on the A350 really.

Yes, and Boeing has been pretty successful at it.

Combined sales for the A333 and A342/3 through April '07.

A333: 281
A342/3: 252
Total: 533

Combined sales for the 772, 772ER, and 773 through April '07.

772: 88
772ER: 430
773: 60
Total: 578

If you want to go to other models of the A340.

A345: 32
A346: 122
Total: 154

And the 777LR

772LR: 47
773ER: 256
Total: 303

Grand totals:

A333/A340: 687
777: 881

Models not included were A332 (since you limited it at the A333), and the A330F and 777F since they are not direct competitors.

However, that's not why I started this thread. The real question is where Airbus is going with the A350XWB. Note that in the comparison above, Boeing was able to use the same wing for all these derivatives (small span extensions for the 777LR's). Airbus had to grow the A340 wing considerably to create the A345/6. Note also that Boeing did not try to use the 777 to compete with the A332. Its wing would have been too large and the airplane would have been too heavy. Airbus appears to be in the same position with the A358 relative to the 788.

What airplane do you think Airbus is planning to utilize the large A350XWB wing? If this hypothetical A3511 had the same takeoff wing loading as the 773ER, its MTOW would be around 363t at a wing loading of 821.6 kg/ sq m. Airbus has demonstrated they are capable of dealing with such wing loadings since the A346 wing loading is 883.7 kg/ sq m.

Is Airbus planning to develop an A3511 with a passenger count of around 450 seats? An MTOW of 363t would enable such an airplane. This could beat Boeing to the punch with Y3 and be much more attractive than the 748. It would also address the 200 seat count gap between the A3510 and the A380.

Any comments on this line of thinking?
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 4:11 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 15):
The extra 3t or so OEW of the A358 vs the 789, offset by slightly better engine SFC, results in the A358 being (we think, but don't know) fractionally less capable than the 789, but with the same fuel burn.

Remember, these are our back of the envelope musings that shows the two airplanes about equal. A carefully assessed wetted area analysis could easily give the 789 a 2% advantage.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 15):
The thing that makes me think the A358/B789 models popular in the long run is that a) they have lower CASM than the 788,



This is the normal situation for larger airplanes. You don't see A333/772A's flying A332/763ER missions even though they have lower CASM's. The size of an airplane in a given market does matter.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 15):
For me, the primary reason that the wings have grown, relative to the MTOW, is that they can.
I believe that CFRP moves the trade-off point between wing span and weight significantly.

While CFRP does allow span to grow, excess wing area is still excess drag. Why build a penalty into an airplane by reducing wing aspect ratio from the middle 10's to the lower 9's at the same span unless you are going to need that area for higher operational weights later on?
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
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moo
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 4:16 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 16):
Boeing was able to use the same wing for all these derivatives (small span extensions for the 777LR's). Airbus had to grow the A340 wing considerably to create the A345/6.

From Airbus.com:
A340-200/300 wing span: 60.31m
A340-500/600 wing span: 63.45m

Difference: 3.14m

From Boeing.com:
777-200/200ER/300 wing span: 60.9m
777-200LR/300ER wing span: 64.8m

Difference: 3.9m
 
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zeke
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 4:26 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 13):
Duh

Duh right back at you, my comments were about pitch, not seat width. Boeing uses a lower seat pitch for its calculations on all models in F & J over Airbus.

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 13):
And how are you going to get a service cart down an aisle that is less than 15" wide? Or does the A350XWB have a unique smaller width cart?

I see you have taken a leaf out of the randy book of marketing mathematics, the XWB cabin is not 195-200" wide.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 14):
Only slightly though.

The difference is fairly big, the total payload uplift over a more typical 5000-6000 nm trip is closer to a 772LR/773ER for the 358/359 respectively, whilst the CATK is low, the TATK is relativity higher, the 350-1000 has a higher payload capability than the 773ER, reducing the numbers back to total available tonne km for costs and yield is interesting.

[Edited 2007-06-03 21:28:32]
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OldAeroGuy
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 4:42 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 19):
Duh right back at you, my comments were about pitch, not seat width. Boeing uses a lower seat pitch for its calculations on all models in F & J over Airbus.

And did you state that any where? The comments about width were all Y related as were my comments about pitch. I don't think there are many 17.5" wide seats in F & J.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 19):
I see you have taken a leaf out of the randy book of marketing mathematics, the XWB cabin is not 195-200" wide.

Don't forget you need to add the arm rest widths to the seat bottom and aisle widths. For a 3-3-3 interior, this means an additional 24" is required. How wide do you think the aisle is in the A350XWB with 9A/B and 17.5" seat bottoms?
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 5:23 am

Quoting Moo (Reply 18):
From Airbus.com:
A340-200/300 wing span: 60.31m
A340-500/600 wing span: 63.45m

Difference: 3.14m

From Boeing.com:
777-200/200ER/300 wing span: 60.9m
777-200LR/300ER wing span: 64.8m

Difference: 3.9m

The wing area for the A346 changed much more than the 773ER.

Wing Area Comparison

A343: 361.6 sq m
A346: 439.4 sq m - 21.5% increase

772ER: 427.8 sq m
773ER: 436.9 sq m - 2.1% increase

The A346 changes included a chord increase and a root insert. This was much more complicated than the 773ER wing tip extensions.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
karan69
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 5:25 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 17):
This is the normal situation for larger airplanes. You don't see A333/772A's flying A332/763ER missions even though they have lower CASM's. The size of an airplane in a given market does matter.

An argument that can be made to that is both the A333 and 772A do not posses economical range as compared to A332/763ER and would be load restricted which would effect CASM on longer routes.

However in case of 788/789/358 they all possess range within 500nm of each other.

Karan
 
astuteman
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 5:55 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 17):
You don't see A333/772A's flying A332/763ER missions even though they have lower CASM's. The size of an airplane in a given market does matter

I understand that, but as Karan69 points out, these new models provide much more capability, particularly in terms of range, with a much lower penalty in operating costs compared to previous generation aircraft.
The risks of "oversizing" slightly are lower, but the "opportunity" is higher.
Obviously that's just my opinion, but the work we've done together recently has convinced me indeed that these new generation planes are game-changers......

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 17):
Remember, these are our back of the envelope musings that shows the two airplanes about equal. A carefully assessed wetted area analysis could easily give the 789 a 2% advantage.

True 'nuff. That doesn't really change the fact that the A358 pretty much directly competes with the B789 in terms of mission capability.... (IMO..  Smile )

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 17):
While CFRP does allow span to grow, excess wing area is still excess drag. Why build a penalty into an airplane by reducing wing aspect ratio from the middle 10's to the lower 9's at the same span unless you are going to need that area for higher operational weights later on?

In the absence of any other logical explanation, I'm going to surmise that "operator" feedback has led to Airbus constraining the wingspan within the 65m allowed by ICAO Cat.E
I'll stand by my earlier comment, that, area for area, the wing loadings for the 787 family are the same as for the A350-1000 - i.e. the A350 wing has been designed for the A350-1000 in the same manner that the 787 wings have.
I therefore don't perceive any great growth potential beyond 295t.

The A358 and A359 are just overwinged, and, as you point out, somewhat compromised by this.
I'd still have been more comfortable (as I said in Tech/Ops) seeing this wingspan increased to the full 65m, and the aspect ratio in the high 9's, to give the same area. I see no reason for this not to happen.
IMO it would endow the aircraft with c. 2% less drag for an utterly nominal OEW increase (if any)
But.......
Puzzled as I am, I'm presuming that Airbus know more about designing wings than I do, and that, as discussed in another thread, there are constraints placed on the designers that I'm (we're) not aware of.....

As an aside, talking of growth potential, the "fag packet" tells me that another 6" or so increase in fuselage diameter (beyond the -XWB) should result in the same seating width as a 777.
Allied to my preferred 65m wingspan, for (by my calculation) only a 3t increase in OEW, and 0.5% increase in fuel burn, true 10Y (i.e. 10Y at 17.2" capability) could have been delivered out of the design.
A 300t MTOW would have been all that was needed to restore the range (of the -1000)
Now that would be a plane....
(Wet-dreaming on my part - sadly)

Regards
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 7:50 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 23):
I'll stand by my earlier comment, that, area for area, the wing loadings for the 787 family are the same as for the A350-1000 - i.e. the A350 wing has been designed for the A350-1000 in the same manner that the 787 wings have.

This where we must differ. Let's look at some MTOW wing loadings:

788: 219540 kg/ 346.9 sq m = 632.9 kg/ sq m

789: 245000 kg/ 359.2 sq m = 682.1 kg/ sq m

A358: 245000 kg/ 442.0 sq m = 554.3 kg/ sq m

A3510: 295000 kg/ 346.9 sq m = 667.4 kg/ sq m

Note that the A3510 has wing loading is 2.2% lower than the 789, but the 789 has a potential stretch coming in the 7810 which will use the same wing area.

This is what leads me to believe there is a potential A3511 in the works. Either that or Airbus has built a drag penalty into the A350 series in the form of excess wing area.

Oh well, time will tell.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
EI321
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 8:07 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 24):
788: 219540 kg/ 346.9 sq m = 632.9 kg/ sq m

789: 245000 kg/ 359.2 sq m = 682.1 kg/ sq m

A358: 245000 kg/ 442.0 sq m = 554.3 kg/ sq m

A3510: 295000 kg/ 346.9 sq m = 667.4 kg/ sq m

It appears from this data that an A350-1100 would be possible without major changes to the wings. Airbus should have called the A350 varients the -500, -600, 700, 800, 900, 600F & 600R etc. A350XWB-1000 is just too long.

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 24):
Note that the A3510 has wing loading is 2.2% lower than the 789, but the 789 has a potential stretch coming in the 7810 which will use the same wing area.

Albeit the 787-10 looks like it will have the same MTOW as the -9

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 24):
This is what leads me to believe there is a potential A3511 in the works. Either that or Airbus has built a drag penalty into the A350 series in the form of excess wing area.

Its possible that Airbus had a few things in the back of their minds when designing the A350, inc the possibility of Boeing turning the Y3 study into reality. I see no urgent incentive for Airbus to launch an A350-1100 yet, as the -1000 is close in size ot the 773ER and the 747-8i with 400-410 seats is not a threat at the moment.

[Edited 2007-06-04 01:24:23]
 
atmx2000
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 8:17 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 7):
If we were to do the same from an Airbus perspective for instance, we'd see that Boeing is also trying to compete with 2 products of Airbus at the same time with their 777, nl the A333 and the A340, yet this is a comment you never hear, mainly because it is just as pointless as the above remark on the A350 really.

Not a very good argument given that the A333 and A343 are the same length, and it is Airbus who is creating the overlap here between two related models. In contrast, Airbus is trying to compete against two very different families in the 777 and 787.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 12):
The 350 can have 18.5" seats, it just narrows the isle.



Quoting Zeke (Reply 19):
I see you have taken a leaf out of the randy book of marketing mathematics, the XWB cabin is not 195-200" wide.



Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 20):
Don't forget you need to add the arm rest widths to the seat bottom and aisle widths. For a 3-3-3 interior, this means an additional 24" is required. How wide do you think the aisle is in the A350XWB with 9A/B and 17.5" seat bottoms?

Increasing 9 abreast seat width to 18.5" from 17.5" takes 4.5" out of each aisle. That is a huge chunk of space, but I'm not sure it would take aisles down to below 15". Nonetheless, I don't think 15" aisles will be considered acceptable by airlines willing to put 18.5" seats in economy.

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 16):
Is Airbus planning to develop an A3511 with a passenger count of around 450 seats? An MTOW of 363t would enable such an airplane. This could beat Boeing to the punch with Y3 and be much more attractive than the 748. It would also address the 200 seat count gap between the A3510 and the A380.

It would also have CASM that basically kills the A388, rendering breakeven on the A388 impossible if it is still even possible. If they are planning such things they won't talk about them until well into the next decade, as EIS for such an aircraft would have to be at least 10 years after A388 EIS to prevent destruction of the A388's sales, so 2018 at the earliest. That would leave the 748 at least 8 years unimpeded in the market.
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EI321
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 8:37 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 26):
I don't think 15" aisles will be considered acceptable by airlines willing to put 18.5" seats in economy.

I think 18'' seats and 17'' aisles would be more realistic.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 26):
It would also have CASM that basically kills the A388, rendering breakeven on the A388 impossible if it is still even possible.

As we know, CASM is not the only reason that the A380 gets ordered.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 26):
That would leave the 748 at least 8 years unimpeded in the market.

As I said above, theres not much incentive for Airbus to launch an A350-1100 with ~400 seats given the sales figures of the 747-8i at the moment.
 
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 8:42 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 27):
As we know, CASM is not the only reason that the A380 gets ordered.

With a 450 seat aircraft from Airbus, a lot of customers considering the A380 would have little reason to stick with that choice, particularly if it is 10 years out of date. And we should be clear that if CASM gets too far out of whack, airlines will cease ordering a larger model even if they have capacity constraints, as selling those additional seats will be harder against lower priced competition using a smaller jet with lower CASM.
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EI321
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 8:59 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 28):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 27):
As we know, CASM is not the only reason that the A380 gets ordered.

With a 450 seat aircraft from Airbus, a lot of customers considering the A380 would have little reason to stick with that choice

Only problem there is, It would not have 450 seats. It would be 6m longer than the -1000, which will come in at about 385-390 seats.
 
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 9:41 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Thread starter):
From the above information, it appears to me that the A350 is meant to compete with two Boeing models, but these two models are the 777 and the Y3. Sizing and timing indicate that the presently described A350 series will cover the 777 market primarily, with no attempt to counter the area where the 787 has had the bulk of its sales, ie the -3/-8. In addition, the A350 wing is sized to allow considerable growth beyond the A3510. This looks like a preemptive strike against a Boeing launch of the Y3.

 checkmark 

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 7):
I think it is unfair to say the A350 goes after 2 markets at the same time, since it will be covering a continuous segment of the market just like most of the planes really. Just because Boeing has decided to position its own products in such a way that they will cover this specific segment of the market with 2 planes, doesn't make the A350 plane spanning 2 different markets.

Of course it's not unfair. Boeing thrashes Airbus in this space right now. Airbus is the vendor that reacting to Boeing's offering. Leahy and Udvar-Hazey have said as much. Therefore it's positioning makes sense. It also makes sense that Airbus is trying to squeeze every penny out of the 330 series that it can. Having the 350 be larger helps them.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 7):
Saying so just proves you are looking at the market purely from a Boeing perspective.

*shrug* Same as the rest of the market right now. Same as Udvar Hazey, same as Leahy.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 7):
If we were to do the same from an Airbus perspective for instance, we'd see that Boeing is also trying to compete with 2 products of Airbus at the same time with their 777, nl the A333 and the A340, yet this is a comment you never hear, mainly because it is just as pointless as the above remark on the A350 really.

That's a bit intellectually dishonest as the A330 and A340 are basically the same frame, with a different amount of engines and changes that derive from that. And yes, Boeing was responding to the A330/340 when they build the 777, but they did the exact same thing and spaced it not only to attack the upper end of the A340 market but also the lower end of the 747 market.

Sound familiar? It's exactly the same thing that Airbus is attempting to do to Boeing here.

Why all the angst about this? It's good business sense, and the only reason not to admit this is because one would rather not admit that Boeing got their markets right in the first place.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 15):

I think that's a somewhat simplistic view. The only plane the A350 doesn't directly compete with is the 787-8. It certainly competes with the -9 and -10.

That's also a bit shady since the -10 doesn't exist now, and may never exist if Boeing launches Y3 as they are starting to hint. Not to mention that the -10 overlaps the 777 in capacity. Today, the 350 competes with more 777 variants then 787 variants.
 
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 10:11 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Thread starter):
From the above information, it appears to me that the A350 is meant to compete with two Boeing models, but these two models are the 777 and the Y3.

The A350 competes directly with the 787. The 777 just wont hold up against it (or against the 787), but like the A330 its still attractive as its available much sooner for delivery. Unless Boeing drastically improve the 777 there wont be much competition after the A350 enters service, which is why Boeing is likely to tackle the larger A350s with the 787-10 and eventually the 787-10ER. Y3 is just a study, it may not ever be built.

If you dont think the 787 & A350 are direct competitors, ask airlines why they are comparing in their RFPs.
 
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 10:41 am

Quoting Karan69 (Reply 9):
quite agree, because the 788 hit the peak of the 767 replacement market.

The 789 will hit the peak of the lower end of the 777 replacement market which should be around the 2010-2012 mark.

How come is everything always defined in terms of Boeing? It seems to me that the A350 is positioned to be a single model to ultimately replace the A330/A340 models, and should be timed quite well to ride the A330/A340 replacement cycle which should begin around 2013. It is only in that context that "XWB" makes any sense at all. To market the A350XWB as a 777 replacement while touting an "Xtra Wide Body" that is actually narrower than the 777's body would be nonsensical.
 
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 11:04 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 31):
If you dont think the 787 & A350 are direct competitors, ask airlines why they are comparing in their RFPs.

They compete in that a buy of one soaks up airline money that might be used for the other, but there aren't many head-to-heads with the 787 out there right now. Take the Qatar order

20 A358
40 A359
20 A3510

Only 25% was in a size category covered by a 787 model that is offerable for sale (A358 - 789).

The other 75% was aimed directly at 777 sized airplanes (A359 - 772LR) & (A3510 - 773ER)
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
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zeke
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 12:51 pm

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 20):
And did you state that any where?

reply 5, I was talking about pitch, hence I used the word pitch.

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 20):
How wide do you think the aisle is in the A350XWB with 9A/B and 17.5" seat bottoms?

better than 9 across in the 330 with 17" seats, the XWB is a foot wider than the 330.

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 24):
A3510: 295000 kg/ 346.9 sq m = 667.4 kg/ sq m

Still using randys marketing calculator.... 295000/346 is closer to 850....but you are using a 787 wing on a 350.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 26):
Increasing 9 abreast seat width to 18.5" from 17.5" takes 4.5" out of each aisle. That is a huge chunk of space, but I'm not sure it would take aisles down to below 15". Nonetheless, I don't think 15" aisles will be considered acceptable by airlines willing to put 18.5" seats in economy.

The isle width would be similar to that as on the 330 with 9 across.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 27):
I think 18'' seats and 17'' aisles would be more realistic.

I think you are right, I think it will have the same seat as the 380, which makes them wider than the 787 and 748i.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
airfrnt
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 12:52 pm

Quoting Grantcv (Reply 32):
How come is everything always defined in terms of Boeing?

Because the replacement cycle that is hitting is mainly 757/767 and a few A300. Carriers don't just change their average aircraft size because the manufacturers say they should. Their business and route planes are a huge factor in what size plane they need, and the fact is that they have been flying with 767s.

Quoting Grantcv (Reply 32):
It seems to me that the A350 is positioned to be a single model to ultimately replace the A330/A340 models, and should be timed quite well to ride the A330/A340 replacement cycle which should begin around 2013.

Are you aware that the 787 is much closer to the 330s/340s size wise over the A350? The 332/333 seat 253/295 respectivly. The 342/343 seat 239/295 for the 340. The 345/346 will not need replacement anytime soon. The A358/350-10 seats 270/350.

That means that there are 20 seats more on the 332 then the 358. It gets even more lopsided comparing the 350-10 to the 333: 55 more seats.

Comparing the 340 to the 350 there are 30 more seats on the 358 then the 342, and 55 seats between the 343 and the 350-10.

On the other hand the 787 ranges between 210 and 290 passengers, which encapsulates everything except for five seats on the 332/333. On the other hand, they also have a smaller seat count which broadens the appeal of the platform.

The 350 is simply too big to compete directly with the 787-8 or -3, and too large to be a 1:1 replacement for the 330s/340s that need replacing.

Quoting Grantcv (Reply 32):
To market the A350XWB as a 777 replacement while touting an "Xtra Wide Body" that is actually narrower than the 777's body would be nonsensical.

It's marketing. Seat count is the metric that the carriers care about. The 787's advantage over the 350 mk1-mk5 was that it was possible to go to 9 abreast seating meaning that the seat count could be boosted without the operating cost going up by a similar amount. The A350XWB was needed to keep the plane competitive from a CASM perspective.

Look at it another way: Just like the 340 became larger to compete with the 777, the A350 became larger to compete with the 777.

Why would Airbus do this? Here is a hint: They have absolutely no plan to do anything with the A330. The A350 no longer directly competes with them, so Airbus can maintain both families as relatively low cost. Eventually the 330/340 will die like the 757/767 did, but Airbus can milk them for quite a while, and undercut the cost of the 787 significantly.
 
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 1:33 pm

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 35):
The 350 is simply too big to compete directly with the 787-8 or -3, and too large to be a 1:1 replacement for the 330s/340s that need replacing.

I just don't accept that at all.

The A358 is eminently capable of being an A330 replacement.

It has 6% higher MTOW
It has 8% more seats than the A332
It has near-on 23% more range than an A332.

On a 6000-6750Nm sector, it will burn some 15% LESS fuel
Therefore it will be comfortably (as in way) cheaper to operate, than an A332, despite being able to offer some 30% more available seat-miles.
I'd have thought that made it an excellent A332 replacement.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 35):
That means that there are 20 seats more on the 332 then the 358. It gets even more lopsided comparing the 350-10 to the 333: 55 more seats.

Comparing the A359 (somehow overlooked here) to the A333 gets you 315 seats vs 295 for the A333, in a plane that will have some 50% more range, whilst burning some 10% less fuel on a given sector. Good value, I'd have thought..
You imply there will be no other demand for 300 seaters other than A330/A340 repacements...
Is that why the 787-10 hasn't been launched?

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 30):
Today, the 350 competes with more 777 variants then 787 variants.

On the basis that Boeing have said the 787-10 is "when" not "if", then the A350 will compete directly with TWO 787 variants and TWO 777 variants. I don't see why that's such a problem.

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 24):
Note that the A3510 has wing loading is 2.2% lower than the 789, but the 789 has a potential stretch coming in the 7810 which will use the same wing area.

My understanding is currently the 787-10 is not anticipated to be any heavier than the 787-9, in which case the stretch is pretty meaningless...

This is becoming a storm in a teacup, to be honest.

Regards
 
atmx2000
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 2:00 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 34):
The isle width would be similar to that as on the 330 with 9 across.

Actually OAG was right originally. The aisles would be under 14" with 18.5" seats on the A350XWB.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 34):
I think you are right, I think it will have the same seat as the 380, which makes them wider than the 787 and 748i.

18" seats would yield a 16-16.5" aisle. More likely to see 17.8" seats with a 17" aisle if airlines are willing to sacrifice aisles space. Of course the 17.2" seats on a 747 come with fairly wide 19.5" aisles. If you move down to 17" aisles, the same size 17.8" seats could be fit. On the 787, 17.4" seats could be fit with 17" aisles.
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kaitak744
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 2:34 pm

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 37):
18" seats would yield a 16-16.5" aisle. More likely to see 17.8" seats with a 17" aisle if airlines are willing to sacrifice aisles space. Of course the 17.2" seats on a 747 come with fairly wide 19.5" aisles. If you move down to 17" aisles, the same size 17.8" seats could be fit. On the 787, 17.4" seats could be fit with 17" aisles.

Regarding seats:

-All of Boeing's 787 "benefits" data is based on a 2-4-2 economy layout.
-If aircraft has more seats, the airline can spread the cost out over more pax. This would mean cheaper overall cost.
-Thus, at 3-3-3, the 787 becomes EVEN more efficient than quoted by Boeing.
-Airbus' A350 data is based on a 3-3-3 layout. If 2-4-2 is put in, the A350's operating cost goes up. 3-4-3 would be very cramped.

-a 3-3-3 787 will have roughly the same seat width as a 3-3-3 A350.

So, when you compare operational data of a 3-3-3 787 with a 3-3-3 A350, the 787 beats the A350 by a huge margin.
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 3:07 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 34):
Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 24):
A3510: 295000 kg/ 346.9 sq m = 667.4 kg/ sq m

Still using randys marketing calculator.... 295000/346 is closer to 850....but you are using a 787 wing on a 350.

I typed in the wrong number, but the calcualtion for 295000 kg/ 442 sq m was still correct at 667.4 kg/ sq m. Doesn't change the point I was making.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 34):
Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 20):
And did you state that any where?

reply 5, I was talking about pitch, hence I used the word pitch.

But you were talking about pitch for F & J, which you never mentioned in Reply 5.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 34):
Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 20):
How wide do you think the aisle is in the A350XWB with 9A/B and 17.5" seat bottoms?


better than 9 across in the 330 with 17" seats, the XWB is a foot wider than the 330.

No answer then?

The real question is what the A350XWB aisle width would be with 9 A/B 18.5" seats.

In Reply 12 you said:

Quoting Zeke (Reply 12):
The 350 can have 18.5" seats, it just narrows the isle.

We can do an analysis to see how narrow the aisles would need to be.

Let's start with your statement that the A350XWB is 12" wider than the A330 and presume you meant at the arm rests.

The 777 is at least 28" wider than the A330 at the arm rests. Using your number for the difference between the A350XWB and the A330, the difference between the 777 and the A350XWB at the arm rests is 16" (math OK?).

On the 777, with 9 A/B 18.5" seats, the aisles are 19.25". From outb'd arm rest to outb'd arm rest, a Y seat row with 3-3-3 seating in 229.0" wide. Since this arrangement has to fit into an A350XWB cabin with that is 16" narrower than the 777 something has to give. To be charitable, let's say that the 777 has 2" of unused space between the outb'd seat arm rest and the sidewall. That would reduce the effective width distance between the two airplanes to 12". If you tried to take that out of each aisle, you'd end up with 13.25" aisles.

It doesn't seem that the A350XWB 9A/B seating with 18.5" seat bottoms is a viable configuration.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 25):
Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 24):
Note that the A3510 has wing loading is 2.2% lower than the 789, but the 789 has a potential stretch coming in the 7810 which will use the same wing area.

Albeit the 787-10 looks like it will have the same MTOW as the -9

Which probably also explains why it's still unlaunched. MTOW will need to go up to push the range out beyond 8000 nm. The wing area is adequate for the MTOW to support this range, but a main gear soultion needs to be found.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
zvezda
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 3:12 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 7):
I think it is unfair to say the A350 goes after 2 markets at the same time, since it will be covering a continuous segment of the market just like most of the planes really. Just because Boeing has decided to position its own products in such a way that they will cover this specific segment of the market with 2 planes, doesn't make the A350 plane spanning 2 different markets.

 checkmark 

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 16):
Is Airbus planning to develop an A3511 with a passenger count of around 450 seats? An MTOW of 363t would enable such an airplane. This could beat Boeing to the punch with Y3 and be much more attractive than the 748. It would also address the 200 seat count gap between the A3510 and the A380.

I would not be at all surprised if Airbus were to eventually launch an A350-1100.
 
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 3:15 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 36):
On a 6000-6750Nm sector, it will burn some 15% LESS fuel
Therefore it will be comfortably (as in way) cheaper to operate, than an A332, despite being able to offer some 30% more available seat-miles.
I'd have thought that made it an excellent A332 replacement.

All true unless there is a better competitor out there. Hence my puzzlement as to why Airbus wants to give away competitive advantage by oversizing the wing.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 36):
My understanding is currently the 787-10 is not anticipated to be any heavier than the 787-9, in which case the stretch is pretty meaningless...

See my comment in Reply 39.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
astuteman
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 3:42 pm

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 41):
See my comment in Reply 39.

If you believe that the 787 wing has growth engineered in (and I've no reason to doubt you), then it stands to reason that the A350's does too.   
It is known that Airbus have asked RR for "growth" in the Trent-XWB beyond 95 000 lb thrust

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 41):
All true unless there is a better competitor out there. Hence my puzzlement as to why Airbus wants to give away competitive advantage by oversizing the wing.

I share your puzzlement that the aspect ratio has been limited to 9.2, when Boeing have managed 10.4 on the 787.
That would indicate that structure wasn't the limiting factor.
Even if Cat E were a goal, the A350 wing is still 1m short of that. At least 65m span would have given a c.9.6 aspect ratio
Extra span gives every model an advantage to offset the disadvantage.
All I can see that extra chord gives you is more lift, which the A358 and A359 most certainly don't need.

As far as the common wing is concerned, perhaps Airbus feel that their overall prospects are improved by saving the money (and resources) by only designing one wing, and accepting a couple of percent lower margins on the A358 to offset the "overwing" disadvantage.
(When all's said and done, the A358's "disadvantage", as we perceive it, isn't of the terminal size, like the A346's became - it should be entirely possible to sell it reasonably well)

So - A combination of ROI, and more significantly, keeping resources available for the A320RS?
Who knows?

Regards

[Edited 2007-06-04 08:45:08]
 
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zeke
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 4:06 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 36):
I just don't accept that at all.

Nor do I, that assumes a stagnant market with zero passenger growth in the future, when realistically passenger growth is increasing by everyone's accounting and predictions, it also assumes that the total available tonne kilometre figure for the 787 and 350 is not influenced by the cargo payload ability.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 37):
Actually OAG was right originally. The aisles would be under 14" with 18.5" seats on the A350XWB.

Doubt it, how are you measuring seat with ?

Look at the 777 ACAPS document, "2.5.2 CABIN CROSS-SECTIONS - BUSINESS AND ECONOMY CLASS SEATS MODEL 777-200LR ,-300ER", 10 abreast on the 777 with 18.5" seats is 229", take say 20" off that for one seat, gives you 209", the XWB cabin is 208" wide at the arm rest, the XWB is not circular like the 777.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 37):
On the 787, 17.4" seats could be fit with 17" aisles.

787 can do slightly better than 17.4", depends on who makes the seats I am told.

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 38):
-All of Boeing's 787 "benefits" data is based on a 2-4-2 economy layout.

The presentations made to the airlines, 9 abreast 787 (3-3-3) is actively being used to compare it to a 8 abreast 333 (2-4-2).

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 39):
But you were talking about pitch for F & J, which you never mentioned in Reply 5.

Everyone knows A&B use the same pitch in Y (32").

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 39):
No answer then?

No definitive answer, I have not seen details from seat suppliers for that config yet. A 3 wide seat cluster on the 330 is 57.1" (9 abreast with 16.5" isle), on the 777 (10 abreast with 17" isle) is 59", with the XWB being a foot wider than the 330.

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 39):
In Reply 12 you said:

The problem is with your reading comprehension, where I say 9 across ? all I said was "The 350 can have 18.5" seats, it just narrows the isle", some airlines are also looking to have 19" Y class seats in the XWB as well.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
zvezda
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RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 5:25 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 42):
I share your puzzlement that the aspect ratio has been limited to 9.2, when Boeing have managed 10.4 on the 787.
That would indicate that structure wasn't the limiting factor.
Even if Cat E were a goal, the A350 wing is still 1m short of that. At least 65m span would have given a c.9.6 aspect ratio

Perhaps Airbus left the extra meter in order to be able to add larger wingtip extensions to increase the swept area of possible future heavier variants such as an A350-1100.
 
keesje
Posts: 8611
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 5:29 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 1):
The B789 did come out much later than the B788, and recent sales of the B787 series suggests (I'll use that term loosely) that B789 will possibly sell just as well.

Agree, as I the market keeps growing at 5% per year, the effort put into further improving the -9 after the 787 was launched and recent orders for the -9 and airlines converting their -8 into -9 orders i think in the longer term the -9 will pull the 787 family with the -3, -9 and -10 types seen as usefull versions for specifi markets. Same as the 767. It was launched with with the -200, the 767-300ER became the most succesfull one. Expect many airlines to convert their -8s into -9s



Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 24):
This is what leads me to believe there is a potential A3511 in the works. Either that or Airbus has built a drag penalty into the A350 series in the form of excess wing area.

Lets not forget apart from lift the wing also functions as the aircraft fuel storage, making room for revenue payload in the fuselage. The big wing is the basis of the big payload range capability Airbus is aiming for with the A350 XWB familiy. Enabling the airlines to really stuff the XWB belly with LD3's and still do Europe-Asia-US without the usual payload range restrictions.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...50-900-xwb-variant-but-doubts.html
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
karan69
Posts: 2699
Joined: Mon Oct 04, 2004 7:57 pm

RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 5:44 pm

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 35):
The 350 is simply too big to compete directly with the 787-8 or -3, and too large to be a 1:1 replacement for the 330s/340s that need replacing.

Altough your point about the 350 being too big to compete with the 788 is very debatable but i would disagree with the fact that the 350 is too large to be a 1:1 replacement for the 330/340.

in addition to what Astuteman states with regards to percentage figure comparisons of the 332/3 to the 358/9, i would like to add that passenger growth figures also have to be considered.

Also various passenger configrations have to be considered --We all know that almost NO airline is gonna go with manufacture configs or claims.

Also many are introducing 4 classes OTOH many are going for just dual classes. So the larger size gives carriers especially in the former case a lot of room to play with so as to say.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 42):
So - A combination of ROI, and more significantly, keeping resources available for the A320RS?
Who knows?

I actually read i think it was at some conference that Leahy said that we have conducted 3-5 studies on the A320 incase Boeing comes out with an 737RS earlier than they anticiapte---J.Leahy anticipates engine manufactures to get results of around 8-10% not earlier than 2012-2013.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 43):
The presentations made to the airlines, 9 abreast 787 (3-3-3) is actively being used to compare it to a 8 abreast 333 (2-4-2).

Exactly , thats how it was presented to AI in 2005.
Also add to the fact that most carriers request for 9 abreast seatings in the RFP.

Karan
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 5:55 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 45):
Lets not forget apart from lift the wing also functions as the aircraft fuel storage, making room for revenue payload in the fuselage. The big wing is the basis of the big payload range capability Airbus is aiming for with the A350 XWB familiy. Enabling the airlines to really stuff the XWB belly with LD3's and still do Europe-Asia-US without the usual payload range restrictions.

 checkmark 
I think Airbus are hoping to match (or edge) the 787's CASM but with substantially better payload/range performance. That would allow the A350 to compete effectively against the 787 despite the disadvantage of greater size.
 
HughesAirwest
Posts: 49
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:28 pm

RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 6:05 pm

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 4):
The problem is that they have picked a wing area that is larger than their largest competitor in these two markets. This is not necessary based on their projected MTOW and makes it even harder to compete at the low end of the market or even fill the gap. Why would they do this unless they intended to grow to reach a market space with a larger passenger count than the larger competitor?

I read somewhere that Airbus claims that the larger wing enables the A350 to product more lift and less drag and burn less fuel.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 7):
Saying so just proves you are looking at the market purely from a Boeing perspective.

If you look at Airbus's statement that the A350 is designed to take on two Boeing models the 777 and 787, so in effect we could say that Airbus is looking at the issue in the same way as Boeing. From my perspective, it looks as though Airbus is hoping that they can market the A358 to take on the B788. Even though the A358 is bigger Airbus can claim "Hey, look the A358 can carry more people just as far as the competion's B788." Some airlines may bite based on the A358's ability to carrying more pacs.
"One man practicing Teamwork is far better than fifty preaching it."
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: What Is The A350XWB Market Area?

Mon Jun 04, 2007 6:08 pm

Quoting HughesAirwest (Reply 48):
From my perspective, it looks as though Airbus is hoping that they can market the A358 to take on the B788. Even though the A358 is bigger Airbus can claim "Hey, look the A358 can carry more people just as far as the competion's B788." Some airlines may bite based on the A358's ability to carrying more pacs.

For that to work, the A350-800 would have to match the 787-8 in trip costs (as the WhaleJet did the 747-400).

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