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clickhappy
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Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:10 am

The newest entry for Randy Tinseth's blog is up, at http://boeingblogs.com/randy/

While discussing the Paris Air Show he makes a couple of excellent quotes - this one caught my eye:

But, a word to reporters and other observers this week: we don't consider it a battle -- because we ain't fighting on air show ground. An air show should be seen as a celebration of flight.

I also find this quote very poignant:

So keep in mind it's just one week out of 52. We'll stay focused on going the distance across those 52 weeks. And we'll find out -- in the long run.

Sometimes I feel these Airbus vs. Boeing posts on A.net are "a battle." Many of us our just aviation fans. We love airplanes. Both Airbus and Boeing are great companies. We should keep these thoughts in mind as we discuss the merits of one over the other.
 
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:15 am

Quoting Clickhappy (Thread starter):
So keep in mind it's just one week out of 52. We'll stay focused on going the distance across those 52 weeks. And we'll find out -- in the long run.

To be honest, I'd of been somewhat suprised if B had come out with a load a new orders at Paris - they've already nearly sold a year's worth of production already this year!
 
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Stitch
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:19 am

Airbus has had a fantastic Monday and, so far, has handily outsold Boeing for the show. But Boeing had a 2 to 1 sales advantage coming into the show, so it's a case of Airbus catching up more then pulling ahead - at least for the moment.

I suppose one reason Boeing prefers their customers to "spread out" orders more then Airbus does is because Boeing needs to maintain "constant sales momentum" to keep their stock price stable. When it comes to stock price, US companies are judged quarter by quarter. So it is more important for Boeing to sell 200 planes a quarter every quarter then to sell 100 planes each in Q1, Q3 and Q4 and then sell 500 at an Air Show. Boeing's stock would jump in Q2, but it would fall in Q1, Q3 and Q4 because sales were slow in Q1 and sales "cratered" in Q3 and Q4 compared to Q2.

[Edited 2007-06-18 17:21:12]
 
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solnabo
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:20 am

If you read between the line in Randy´s Blog:

Dont get hysterical over the low sales from Boeing at this show, after all it´s one week out of 52...

Micke//  rotfl   santahat 
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:25 am

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 3):
Dont get hysterical over the low sales from Boeing at this show, after all it´s one week out of 52...

Well uh.. isn't he correct there.. I mean if Airbus sells 300 aircraft at the show and 100 for the rest of the year (made up numbers) it really doesn't matter that they sold 300 in a week does it? I mean after all it's less the 6 a week for the other 51 weeks to make up that 300 aircraft..

Airbus needed a good show, and it looks like they got it, which is good for them, but it's hardly cause for overly euphoric celebration. Similarly it's not the end of the world if they outsell Boeing this week. Even if it's 5 to 1.

It *is* only 1 week out of the entire year, and some of the orders Airbus is announcing today have been a LONG time in coming, so to attribute them all to this week would be a bit foolish, n'est pas? (Witness QR, US as two such examples of orders that have been pending for a LONG time).
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:26 am

Quoting Clickhappy (Thread starter):
Many of us our just aviation fans. We love airplanes. Both Airbus and Boeing are great companies. We should keep these thoughts in mind as we discuss the merits of one over the other.

So true. I wish we were all so thoughtful when we made our posts!
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clickhappy
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:28 am

Micke - Nothing new there really, is there  Smile Airbus has always saved up orders for big shows. Boeing doesn't. Or, more to the point, can't.

The numbers that really matter are at year end. Which I think is something like 1March for Airbus  Big grin

All kidding aside, Airbus is having a great show, hopefully we will see some Boeing orders confirmed in the next couple of days. ILFC and QR would be nice campaigns to win...
 
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:32 am

He's merely saving face in advance. Putting in some ground work. This stuff is barely even worth putting up in the blog IMO.
 
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:38 am

It will be more interesting 2009 and 2010 and the sale of A350XWB and A320E, not for a week but 52 weeks  Wink

Micke//  wave 
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:47 am

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 3):
Dont get hysterical over the low sales from Boeing at this show, after all it´s one week out of 52...

Here in America we have the Superbowl and declare the winner "World Champion" even though nobody else is playing. That same sort of hyperbole applies to Airbus at the big airshows. There's a joyful shower of Airbus orders and they are declared the winner...but who else is playing this game? smile 
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:48 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 7):
He's merely saving face in advance.

Nearly every time there's a Boeing order announced, some Kool-Aid drinker for Airbus runs around yelling, "Oh yeah, well we'll see you at Paris, mate!" Okay, so Paris is here. There's absolutely nothing Boeing has to be ashamed about this week, especially as they're planning the 7/8/07 festivities.
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Stitch
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:49 am

Whoever noted in another thread that "Airbus Aficionados would cheer" and "Boeing Boosters would fume" over the respective orders place sure was prescient so far... Big grin
 
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clickhappy
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:50 am

That same sort of hyperbole applies to Airbus at the big airshows

I don't think Airbus has ever called themselves "World Champions" based on an airshows sales totals, have they?
 
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:53 am

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 3):
If you read between the line in Randy´s Blog:

Dont get hysterical over the low sales from Boeing at this show, after all it´s one week out of 52...

Correct. And rightfully so. Airbus always sandbags orders for Paris and other shows. It is part of the PR mentality at Airbus, which has not really served them all that well over the last 2 years or so.

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 6):
Micke - Nothing new there really, is there Airbus has always saved up orders for big shows. Boeing doesn't. Or, more to the point, can't.

The numbers that really matter are at year end. Which I think is something like 1March for Airbus

Thats absolutely right. Airbus has to demonstrate the viability of the A-350 program this year or it becomes a lame duck. Boeing has to report sales even if it runs contrary to customer wishes, hence the unidentified ones.
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EI321
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 1:08 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 10):
Nearly every time there's a Boeing order announced, some Kool-Aid drinker for Airbus runs around yelling, "Oh yeah, well we'll see you at Paris, mate!"

.......Your half way there. The true context your referring to is the response often given when airbus's 'lacklustre' A350s sales are pointed out by whoever and for whatever reason. This does not generally happen on foot of a Boeing announcement as you imply, rather it happens on foot of an allegation of poor A350 sales. And judging by todays orders, the 'wait untill paris' stance is being vindicated as we speak. It appears that Randy unknowingly concurred in advance with the opinion of the airbus Kool-Aid drinkers you refer to.

PS, what exactly is this kool-aid stuff often mentioned? It is similar to gatorade?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
Whoever noted in another thread that "Airbus Aficionados would cheer" and "Boeing Boosters would fume" over the respective orders place sure was prescient so far...

That was just last night, and it was right on the money  Wink
 
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 1:21 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 14):
PS, what exactly is this kool-aid stuff often mentioned? It is similar to gatorade?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koolaid

Quote:
In technology circles "drinking the Kool-Aid" is often used to describe the misguided or over-abundant enthusiasm someone has for a particular product or candidate and their capabilities.

Thus, an Airbus supporter will be accused of "drinking the Airbus Koolaid". However, the reverse is also true for the Boeing fanboyz.

All very silly really. yes 
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clickhappy
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 1:21 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 14):
PS, what exactly is this kool-aid stuff often mentioned? It is similar to gatorade?

When people reference "kool aid" they are referencing the unfortunate events of the Jonestown Massacre

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonestown

It is a bad taste (no pun intended!) reference to people drinking the grape Flavor Aid. Most people didn't drink it because they believed, they were forced to do so, at gun point. They had also been given the same drink many times as "practice," so many people thought it was just another exercise.

It has become an euphemism to describe people who blindly believe something, regardless of it is true or not.
 
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 4:16 am

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 12):
I don't think Airbus has ever called themselves "World Champions" based on an airshows sales totals, have they?

I never said that. You're reading it too literally.  boggled 
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osiris30
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 4:37 am

@Scbriml:

"Airbus supporters" and "boeing fanboyz"?

Interesting selection of wording there for commenting on the situation you were commenting on. As you said, very silly really.
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tak
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 4:42 am

I'm sorry but I think this is an inane blokg entry. A "don't worry we will have more orders later" entry. Keep it to yourself next time Randy. I love many airbus and boeing products, but hate stupid pr spin like this. I liked the last Randy better Big grin. Ciao everyone
 
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 4:49 am

Suppose one of the 2 main global air shows was, say, ther SEATTLE air show, are you saying Boeing wouldn't sandbag orders to give the 'home team' a PR boost???
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 4:50 am

Quoting Clickhappy (Thread starter):
So keep in mind it's just one week out of 52. We'll stay focused on going the distance across those 52 weeks. And we'll find out -- in the long run.

Damn.
And I was SO looking forward to NAV20's downbeat conclusion that Boeing can be expected to achieve just 0% of widebody sales over the next 20 years, based on today's figures, and then only if they're lucky.....  Wink

Ah well......  biggrin 

Regards
 
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 5:06 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 21):
And I was SO looking forward to NAV20's downbeat conclusion that Boeing can be expected to achieve just 0% of widebody sales over the next 20 years, based on today's figures, and then only if they're lucky.....

 rotfl 

Exactly, at the current rate of orders*, Boeing can't expect to be in business much longer. wink 

*statement based on net sales of 18th June - Boeing 6, Airbus 310.

Current performance is no indicator of future performance. Sales may go down as well as up. Terms and conditions apply.
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TeamAmerica
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 5:26 am

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 20):
Suppose one of the 2 main global air shows was, say, ther SEATTLE air show, are you saying Boeing wouldn't sandbag orders to give the 'home team' a PR boost???

Yes. Under US law it would be nearly impossible for Boeing to stockpile orders. This point has been covered in numerous UFO order threads.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 22):
Current performance is no indicator of future performance. Sales may go down as well as up. Terms and conditions apply.

Gotta love that small print! biggrin 
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wcs
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 5:28 am

Hi,

I'm totally off the A/B battle, but I found this blog entry somewhat cheap. The biggest contradiction for me stands in that quote:

"and with all of the exhibits, display aircraft, and flight demonstrations"

I would love to find Boeing there as a true enthusiast. With just one 777 on display and no demonstrations (civil aircraft), I have my doubts. Le Bourget, like most of aviation shows is driven by business and for business. To post such entry at day one looks strange for me.

Whatever Airbus will do this week --and I'm glad there are doing well- , Boeing is there with a solid, consistent range of product. They could be proud of that. Spare the cheap and go ahead.

Raphael
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 5:57 am

What I find interesting is how Airbus itself sets some sales targets for the show (e.g. 150 A350s, 300 total orders) then Leahy et al keeps talking about how close they are getting to the targets they themselves set. Airliners aren't an impulse buy (unless you are EK  Smile ) so Airbus knows darn well how many orders are going to get filled at the show. Cheap PR BS, if you ask me.
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 6:04 am

Let´s hope to see 787 on display at Farnborough(?) Air Show next year, but it wont fly like any Boeing aircraft.

I think it´s sad, very sad.

Micke//  Sad
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 6:14 am

Drinking Kool-Aid can also be referred to Ken Kesey's book "The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test", good reading. Maybe I'm just to old.

I feel like I'm watching "As the World Turns", "One Day at a Time", or hell, maybe even the Stepford Wives. I have to go get a life. Awesome day for the 350 though!
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 8:56 am

Let's not forget these are the airlines deciding when the announcments should be done.

It's good PR for an airline to place an order at the beginning of the show. For example Nouvelair, they have ordered a couple of A320s. At any other time of the year, there would be no media coverage of this order. Today their name was on many international press showing the list of Airbus orders at the Paris Air Show.
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 9:22 am

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 16):
When people reference "kool aid" they are referencing the unfortunate events of the Jonestown Massacre



Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 16):
It has become an euphemism to describe people who blindly believe something, regardless of it is true or not.

Thank you Clickhappy. You're 100% correct.








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halls120
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 10:05 am

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 6):
All kidding aside, Airbus is having a great show, hopefully we will see some Boeing orders confirmed in the next couple of days. ILFC and QR would be nice campaigns to win...

Why? Why is it sooooo important to some Anetters that Boeing match Airbus orders this week? Is some sort of aviation prize awarded to the manufacturer who sells the most airplanes during a one week period in June?

Quoting EI321 (Reply 7):
He's merely saving face in advance. Putting in some ground work. This stuff is barely even worth putting up in the blog IMO.

Just maybe Boeing has a different philosophy - have you considered that?

And a question for you - let's say Airbus gains more orders this week than Boeing, but Boeing ends the year with more orders than Airbus. What significance would this particular week then occupy?
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Tue Jun 19, 2007 11:46 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 25):
Airbus knows darn well how many orders are going to get filled at the show. Cheap PR BS, if you ask me.

Thats the goal when you are trying to do the PR dance to the world. They need to demonstrate (very badly) that they are solving internal problems and have a viable 777/787 competitor in the A-350. This is a "must win" show for Airbus in the PR department.

Boeing, on the other hand, has no such need. The just need to reassure customers that the 787 is not suffering the same fate as the A-380 program.
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Wed Jun 20, 2007 12:00 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 4):
Airbus needed a good show, and it looks like they got it, which is good for them, but it's hardly cause for overly euphoric celebration.

Randy's point is it isn't what you sell in one week that matters, it what you sell in one year. For some reason Airbus has decided on the Air Show sales as a marketing tool. While there may be some feeble minded airline execs who may be swayed by the hoopla, 99% of them are hard-nose numbers men. They look at the numbers, and very carefully.

All things considered, we should look at this week as an Airbus staged PR event. If they think it works for them, then great, as long as they are happy. But they should look at the year end numbers as well.
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Wed Jun 20, 2007 12:09 am

Quoting Halls120 (Reply 30):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 7):
He's merely saving face in advance. Putting in some ground work. This stuff is barely even worth putting up in the blog IMO.

Just maybe Boeing has a different philosophy - have you considered that?

Airbus do have a different philopohsy, its not exactly a secret.
 
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RE: Randy's Blog - The Long Run

Wed Jun 20, 2007 12:33 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
Airbus has had a fantastic Monday and, so far, has handily outsold Boeing for the show. But Boeing had a 2 to 1 sales advantage coming into the show, so it's a case of Airbus catching up more then pulling ahead - at least for the moment.

Well said Stitch. And it's also as simple as, Paris... Europe... It's Airbus' home turf. This is the week that they get to have their party. With the challenges that Airbus is facing, they certainly deserve their time in the sun.

I'm still hoping for a surprise 747-8i order. We have the week to go yet!
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