NAV20
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"Somebody...May Build A Factory They Won't Need.."

Tue Jun 19, 2007 10:48 pm

Just a 'throwaway' line by Mike Bair, Program Director for the 787, speaking in Paris a few minutes ago.

The rest of his comments were straight down the line - 'playing a straight bat," as fellow cricket fans would say:-

"We are where we need to be," Bair said. He added that "we have pockets that are behind," but the overall schedule for production of the 787 as laid out four years ago is on track.

"Bair said "there's nothing that we see" that will get in the way of delivering the plane on time. His staff is "tusseling" with Boeing salesmen over increasing production rates at some point, he added.

"We are actually trying to be really careful," Bair said.

"The novelty of the new carbon-fiber composites used for the first time to build the plane's body and wings may actually result in greater manufacturing efficiency than first thought, he said.

"Also new in the project, Boeing is relying on suppliers around the world to build components. Because manufacturing has gone so smoothly, he said, "somebody somewhere may build a factory they won't need."


http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/...OWJONESDJONLINE000366_FORTUNE5.htm

Must admit that I'm at a loss to understand that last comment - what do other people think that he meant by it?

[Edited 2007-06-19 15:50:27]
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Revelation
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RE: "Somebody...May Build A Factory They Won't Need.."

Tue Jun 19, 2007 11:06 pm

The link didn't load for me.

From your quotes, he's concerned about building too much manufacturing capacity. One SARS outbreak or something worse could see a lot of the order backlog deferred or cancelled.

On the other hand, Boeing has said that the quality of the composite parts they've been seeing is better than they anticipated, so perhaps there's no need to expand capacity, the existing infrastructure is doing better than planned.
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RE: "Somebody...May Build A Factory They Won't Need.."

Tue Jun 19, 2007 11:14 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Thread starter):
Must admit that I'm at a loss to understand that last comment - what do other people think that he meant by it?

It means that he believes that efficiency is projected to be so high that there may be surplus capacity in the system. If they don't need it, then it opens that capacity up for myriad other possibilities.
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NAV20
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RE: "Somebody...May Build A Factory They Won't Need.."

Tue Jun 19, 2007 11:14 pm

Sorry about the link, Revelation - works from here.

Maybe he just meant that, after years of 'keeping it in the family,' Boeing had finally realised that they can depend on overseas suppliers to meet or even better their own exacting quality standards?

[Edited 2007-06-19 16:16:22]
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Lumberton
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RE: "Somebody...May Build A Factory They Won't Need.."

Tue Jun 19, 2007 11:19 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Thread starter):
what do other people think that he meant by it?

Perhaps it's a plea for more capacity?  Wink
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NAV20
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RE: "Somebody...May Build A Factory They Won't Need.."

Tue Jun 19, 2007 11:31 pm

Thing is, Lumberton, it proves (to MY satisfaction anyway) that Boeing management, at this moment, are genuinely confident that they're 'on track.' It's often the indirect comments that give a better guide than the direct ones as to a given manager's state of mind.
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PPVRA
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RE: "Somebody...May Build A Factory They Won't Need.."

Tue Jun 19, 2007 11:40 pm

Perhaps he was referring to the Japanese going ahead to built that other plant (think it was a barrel plant. . . maybe wings?).
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DAYflyer
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RE: "Somebody...May Build A Factory They Won't Need.."

Tue Jun 19, 2007 11:52 pm

Perhpas it means more capacity than needed for 1 line, so no more is required for a 2nd line??
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Stitch
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RE: "Somebody...May Build A Factory They Won't Need.."

Tue Jun 19, 2007 11:55 pm

Rumors are that Kawasaki may be building a second facility to build 787 parts, so maybe it's a hint to the Japanese to not over-extend themselves.

Spirit has enough space to build three additional Section 41s at the same time, so they're covered. Don't know how Alenia and Vought are doing for space.
 
siromega
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RE: "Somebody...May Build A Factory They Won't Need.."

Wed Jun 20, 2007 12:00 am

Quoting NAV20 (Thread starter):


"The novelty of the new carbon-fiber composites used for the first time to build the plane's body and wings may actually result in greater manufacturing efficiency than first thought, he said.

I think that means that they'll be able to snap the pieces together quicker. Dovetailing with the announcement yesterday of the wings being nearly exactly on (zero and .0001" for right and left) less work is needed if you dont have to shim or massage anything into place.

Boeing doesnt need to build a second line if they can produce 7 or 8 planes/week.
 
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RE: "Somebody...May Build A Factory They Won't Need.."

Wed Jun 20, 2007 12:07 am

I think its a clear slap at Airbus. If say Boeing does go to 20/month on the 787 line and finds it can sling them all day long at $90M or less, it is possible that their early start coupled with high production numbers could shove the A350 out of existence. I doubt it personally but its *possible*. Worse for Airbus would be getting a foot in the door, then their leg, just to have the door kicked closed. Airbus CAN'T have another A340 or A340NG style "success" after the A380 so carefully took Airbus's entire historical goodwill, credibility, and capital out back and burned it in one great bonfire.
 
NAV20
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RE: "Somebody...May Build A Factory They Won't Need.."

Wed Jun 20, 2007 12:11 am

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 6):
Perhaps he was referring to the Japanese going ahead to built that other plant (think it was a barrel plant. . . maybe wings?).

Just can't see Bair (or any other Boeing manager) kicking one of their own loyal suppliers/partners in the teeth, PPVRA?
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ltbewr
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RE: "Somebody...May Build A Factory They Won't Need.."

Wed Jun 20, 2007 12:18 am

Perhaps a sub-contractor will build additional capacity beyond that potential future advances in making the manufacturing process more efficient and as experience over time will lead to. They may think there is a need for capacity at first as the flow may be slower than later after more experience in the manufacturing process to keep up with the demand for the 787 and the planned delivery schedules. Of course, changes in the world's economy, oil prices and the like may affect demand and spread out delivery schedules, which could shift demand down to sub-contractors for as much capacity.
 
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falstaff
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RE: "Somebody...May Build A Factory They Won't Need.."

Wed Jun 20, 2007 12:37 am

Quoting NAV20 (Thread starter):
"somebody somewhere may build a factory they won't need."

It has happened before. Chrysler built a plant near Pittsburgh they never used and later sold it to VW. It was a disaster to VW (very low quality Rabbits) and now it is a Sony TV plant.

Miller Brewing Company built a plant in Trenton, Ohio in the early 80a and it took ten years for production to get to a level where they actually needed it.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):
From your quotes, he's concerned about building too much manufacturing capacity

I can see why that would be important. Look at the excess capacity in many US manufacturing operations, particularly in the auto sector. 10 years ago there was massive amounts of excess capacity in the US brewing business. I think he wants to avoid that in the aircraft business.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):
One SARS outbreak or something worse could see a lot of the order backlog deferred or cancelled.

It is hard to plan for that sort of thing. But if that were to happen..... The international market would shrivel.
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RE: "Somebody...May Build A Factory They Won't Need.."

Wed Jun 20, 2007 12:38 am

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 10):
I think its a clear slap at Airbus.

I'm surprised. But then again, maybe not.

However, I thought Boeing didn't play "games" like these? scratchchin 
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aminobwana
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RE: "Somebody...May Build A Factory They Won't Need.."

Wed Jun 20, 2007 12:40 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 11):
Just can't see Bair (or any other Boeing manager) kicking one of their own loyal suppliers/partners in the teeth, PPVRA?

Possibly, even if not probably, he wants to avoid that the suppliers build up an excess capacity referred to Boeings needs, which later could benefice Airbus. But this do should not refer to Barrels, unless Airbus finally make the switch from panels to barrels.

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jwenting
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RE: "Somebody...May Build A Factory They Won't Need.."

Wed Jun 20, 2007 12:44 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):
From your quotes, he's concerned about building too much manufacturing capacity. One SARS outbreak or something worse could see a lot of the order backlog deferred or cancelled.

No. He seems to mean that production capacity of factories is higher than envisioned so they may have a surplus with the planned factories.
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Devilfish
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RE: "Somebody...May Build A Factory They Won't Need.."

Wed Jun 20, 2007 8:10 am

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 6):
Perhaps he was referring to the Japanese going ahead to built that other plant (think it was a barrel plant. . .



Quoting Stitch (Reply 8):
Rumors are that Kawasaki may be building a second facility to build 787 parts, so maybe it's a hint to the Japanese to not over-extend themselves.



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 11):
Just can't see Bair (or any other Boeing manager) kicking one of their own loyal suppliers/partners in the teeth,

Well, there is this bit of news......

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...launches-regional-jet-concept.html

Quote:
"Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is showing off a full-scale mock-up of the cabin of its proposed Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ). MHI has been working on the possible launch of a 70-90 seat regional jet as a project within the country’s New Energy and Industrial Development Organization (NEDO).

The concept calls for the aircraft to have an all-composite airframe, the first of its kind in the regional jet market. The ultimate aim of the effort is to build and test an aircraft incorporating the new control and material technologies developed during the project."
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