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WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 6:47 am

Didn't see this posted yet, but Gary Chase of Lehman Brothers noted in a research note today:

Quote:
Gary says that Southwest has made seats on a number of longhaul markets unavailable beginning October 4th, including all nonstop flights from Baltimore to Los Angeles and Oakland, and Philadelphia to Los Angeles and Oakland. "We've identified similar activity in a number of other markets, including longhaul markets with frequency reductions (such as Phoenix to Providence, with 1 of 2 daily flights unavailable for purchase)," Chase added.

I'll have the actual research note available to post probably by tomorrow, instead of just Holly's quote from it.
I'm the expert on here on two things, neither of which I care about much anymore.
 
SANFan
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 7:10 am

I don't understand exactly what is being said but it'll be interesting to see what's up. Also, he apparently didn't mention SAN-BWI (2x daily) but that doesn't surprise me; everyone forgets about SAN!

There has been talk that the transcons, ever since they started in Sept of 2002 with 2x daily LA-BWI, were "un-WN" (one plane = 2 flights per day...ouch) and maybe not terribly profitable; they've given them 5 years now so perhaps the time has come to redeploy the a/c to short- and medium-range flights like the business model says!

bb
 
VictorKilo
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 8:18 am

Quoting SANFan (Reply 1):
Also, he apparently didn't mention SAN-BWI (2x daily) but that doesn't surprise me; everyone forgets about SAN!

The BWI-SAN nonstop flights are still available for booking, just not BWI-LAX and BWI-OAK, or PHL-OAK or PHL-LAX.

BWI-SAN has more O&D than BWI-OAK and has a 17% higher yield based on the Q3 O&D figures, so I can see cutting BWI-OAK but not BWI-SAN. Plus, with gate space at LAX at a premium, the LAX transcons may not be as profitable as other potential LAX routes - could the four n/s transcons from LAX be replaced by four daily DEN-LAX flights?
 
pgtravel
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 10:22 am

Quoting SANFan (Reply 1):
I don't understand exactly what is being said but it'll be interesting to see what's up

Here's the deal. A friend of mine found it this morning as well, so I put it up on the blog.

If you go to southwest.com and search for any city pair starting October 4, you'll see some flights that have zero availability. There's no way those flights are sold out, so they must be closing them out in order to cancel them in the near future. The ones that have been found so far are:

Nonstops are gone:
LAX-BWI/PHL
OAK-BWI/PHL
SNA-MDW
PHX-CLE

One less nonstop flight (usually late night/early morning):
PHX-PVD/RDU
HOU-AUS/STL
FLL-MCO
ISP-BWI/MDW
RNO-OAK/SJC
PHX-LAX
ABQ-AMA

There are probably more, but they haven't been found yet. If you want to play, just search on southwest.com and look for flights after October 4 that are completely sold out. Remember to look on a weekday, many of those flights don't operate on weekends.

If you find one, I'd appreciate it if you left a comment on my blog post. I'm trying to get the full extent of the cuts up there.
 
AirTranTUS
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 10:31 am

Quoting Pgtravel (Reply 3):
PHX-CLE

I guess they couldn't compete with CO's 2x daily and US' daily.
I love ASO!
 
AirRyan
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 10:46 am

Basically I think those flights were just too expensive in terms of CASM and WN figured they could move those planes to other routes and generate more revenue if even at smaller airfares on short haul routes with high frequency than what these flights were making on long-hauls at higher airfares but only once or twice a day. One of those PHX-PVD flights is just going over to MHT-PHX starting up around the same time.
 
CV990A
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 10:53 am

Quoting Pgtravel (Reply 3):
ISP-BWI/

Crap. You're right- they cut Flt.1467 ISP-BWI- it leaves ISP around 815pm, and was a good time schedule-wise for me when I've flown that route.  Angry
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FLYGUY767
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 10:54 am

Quoting Pgtravel (Reply 3):
Nonstops are gone:
LAX-BWI/PHL
OAK-BWI/PHL
SNA-MDW
PHX-CLE

That would equate to a win for the following airlines

~Los Angeles to Philadelphia
United Airlines, US Airways

Los Angeles to Baltimore
United Airlines

Orange County to Chicago
American Airlines, United Airlines

Phoenix to Cleveland
Continental Airlines, US Airways

Very interesting. Looks like United Airlines will be the winner in a few of these markets. Then all of the fodder about Southwest Airlines being hit hard this year would seem to be true. It is amazing though that they would cut routes like LAX-BWI, or OAK-BWI; These are routes that connect Southwest Airlines key cities.. Very interesting..

However, all of these reductions in service make me wonder if Southwest Airlines has something planned for the equipment that would be used for these services. Wasn't there talk a while ago about Washington. IAD and Denver exceeding expectation, and those cities receiving additional services?

-JD
Summer Trip 2007: DEN HAAG>DUBAI>LONDON>VERONA>COSTA SMERALDA>CAPRI
 
Tornado82
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 10:55 am

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 7):
Wasn't there talk a while ago about Washington. IAD and Denver exceeding expectation, and those cities receiving additional services?

Actually the talk was of IAD UNDERacheiving.
 
HPRamper
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:02 am

Quoting AirTranTUS (Reply 4):
I guess they couldn't compete with CO's 2x daily and US' daily

I wouldn't read too much into WN "getting beat" in these markets. I think it's more a matter of those aircraft being more useful on shorter segments, thus getting more cycles out of them. That is, for the most part, the WN business plan. Longer segments like those mentioned, i.e. PHL-LAX, PHX-CLE fit the hub-and-spoke carriers more, IMO.
 
FLYGUY767
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:03 am

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 8):
Actually the talk was of IAD UNDERacheiving.

Very interesting.. and thank you for the information..

Makes you wonder if SWA route-planning needs a re-vamp!

-JD
Summer Trip 2007: DEN HAAG>DUBAI>LONDON>VERONA>COSTA SMERALDA>CAPRI
 
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ERJ170
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:09 am

Quoting Pgtravel (Reply 3):
One less nonstop flight (usually late night/early morning):
PHX-PVD/RDU

Ah crap... so we went from 4x daily PHX service (2x WN, 2x HP/US) to 2x daily (1x WN, 1x HP), but yet equaling out on LAS (1x WN, 3weekly HP) to 2x WN, 3weekly HP...

what is going on here? can we at least get a new LOCAL flight.. like RSW or BUF or PVD or MHT or something???
Aiming High and going far..
 
LAXintl
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:19 am

SWA could be following a page from the Jetblue play book that sees a decline in transcon flying come winter and increase of North-South flying (Florida in B6s case).
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
OPNLguy
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:23 am

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 10):

Makes you wonder if SWA route-planning needs a re-vamp!

Not that I'm privy to what goes on in the top-secret room, but we have something like 3,100 flights per day, so tweaking a few here and there isn't a huge deal in the big scheme of things.. (IMHO, of course..)  Wink
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
RL757PVD
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:26 am

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 11):
what is going on here? can we at least get a new LOCAL flight.. like RSW or BUF or PVD or MHT or something??

They have to be doing something with these planes... and also they are going to be re-doing their schedule (another optimization) for early November, that should be published within the next month.

PVD-RDU/ORF/JAX/MSY/IND/PIT/HOU would all be good.

Its pretty obvious that the best area for an LCC is the 500-1500 mile segment so i think thats where we will see WN focus.

I.E PVD-BNA is roughly the same fare as PVD-PHX
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VictorKilo
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:48 am

Add one more to the list - one less flight on PHL-PVD.

What's interesting to me is that, in addition to the extremely long flights being targeted, many of the flights with reduced frequencies are the short flights. Five of the twenty shortest routes WN currently flies (HOU-AUS, MCO-FLL, BWI-ISP, and RNO-OAK/SJC), all of which are under 225 miles, lose a roundtrip flight.

Not sure exactly what this means, but I find it interesting.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 12:03 pm

Quoting VictorKilo (Reply 15):
What's interesting to me is that, in addition to the extremely long flights being targeted, many of the flights with reduced frequencies are the short flights. Five of the twenty shortest routes WN currently flies (HOU-AUS, MCO-FLL, BWI-ISP, and RNO-OAK/SJC), all of which are under 225 miles, lose a roundtrip flight.

Not sure exactly what this means, but I find it interesting.

I'm guessing it means optimization of the route network, and not a heck of a lot more.

-Dave
-Dave
 
jlbmedia
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 12:20 pm

Dose anyone know whats up with WN & PHL? I keep hearing how successful WN has been since the beginning at PHL. They continue to ask for more gates to expand, but they have now cut three cities IIRC. This fall WN will be getting more gates at PHL when Delta moves to one of the A concourses. I even remember reading one article that referenced PHL as a possible City for their future foreign routes. What is in the future for WN & PHL? John.
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MSYtristar
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 12:26 pm

I've been hearing about more flights to MSY come the October schedule.
 
atlaaron
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 12:34 pm

Quoting AirTranTUS (Reply 4):
I guess they couldn't compete with CO's 2x daily and US' daily.

While my assumption could be wrong, I was always under the assumption that WN was not all that strong in CLE. So this one does not OVERLY surprise me.

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 7):
Very interesting. Looks like United Airlines will be the winner in a few of these markets.

Good, well hopefully they can raise the fares on these routes to profitable levels and improve yield. However, hopefully they will not go overboard and gouge travelers.
 
quickmover
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 12:52 pm

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 7):
However, all of these reductions in service make me wonder if Southwest Airlines has something planned for the equipment that would be used for these services. Wasn't there talk a while ago about Washington. IAD and Denver exceeding expectation, and those cities receiving additional services?

I was thinking the same thing. Also, I believe they have several more aircraft deliveries yet this year. Some city is in for a nice schedule boost.
 
catdaddy63
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 1:00 pm

I expect WN to continue to do what they do best. Mix and match loads through direct flights rather than longer nonstops. It's how they've gotten where they are.
 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 1:04 pm

SWA could be following a page from the Jetblue play book that sees a decline in transcon flying come winter and increase of North-South flying (Florida in B6s case).

This comment strikes me as the most important in the discussion. We haven't heard boo from Southwest yet, just one A.netter found some likely schedule adjustments coming at a time of year when some airlines do some seasonal capacity shifting. Yields need to be good for an LCC to justify getting only two segments out of an a/c per day. Obviously JetBlue hasn't withdrawn from transcons or near-transcons entirely; it seems to me that their bigger and more established competitor isn't likely to either. But seasonal adjustments (of a tiny handful of WN flights, as OPNLguy noted) in search of better yields seems a likely course of action to me. Time will tell, of course, if the adjustments are seasonal or permanent, but I'd bet seasonal.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
FLYGUY767
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 1:10 pm

Quoting Catdaddy63 (Reply 21):
I expect WN to continue to do what they do best. Mix and match loads through direct flights rather than longer nonstops. It's how they've gotten where they are.

This makes me wonder with this schedule reduction of approximately 10 aircraft, what routes have gained the additional service. Looking on SWA.com this would seem like more of a temporary fleet reduction. It will be interesting to see what the schedules will bring for 11/2 onwards..

-JD
Summer Trip 2007: DEN HAAG>DUBAI>LONDON>VERONA>COSTA SMERALDA>CAPRI
 
FreequentFlier
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:09 pm

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 7):
However, all of these reductions in service make me wonder if Southwest Airlines has something planned for the equipment that would be used for these services. Wasn't there talk a while ago about Washington. IAD and Denver exceeding expectation, and those cities receiving additional services?

Actually, loads in IAD were apparently sub-50% and DEN wasn't all that much better.

Quoting DCA-ROCguy (Reply 22):

This comment strikes me as the most important in the discussion. We haven't heard boo from Southwest yet, just one A.netter found some likely schedule adjustments coming at a time of year when some airlines do some seasonal capacity shifting. Yields need to be good for an LCC to justify getting only two segments out of an a/c per day. Obviously JetBlue hasn't withdrawn from transcons or near-transcons entirely; it seems to me that their bigger and more established competitor isn't likely to either. But seasonal adjustments (of a tiny handful of WN flights, as OPNLguy noted) in search of better yields seems a likely course of action to me. Time will tell, of course, if the adjustments are seasonal or permanent, but I'd bet seasonal.

While this was just a post by an A.netter, you can in fact confirm on the website that the flights do not have selling fares at the moment so it appears they are gone for now. October is usually a fairly early time to start pulling seasonal capacity as demand is still fairly strong in October. It isn't really until closer to winter that normal seasonal capacity is removed. Don't know if I believe these pulls are seasonal in nature. Seems more likely that it confirms my earlier suspicions: WN is starting to struggle now that it is paying closer to the market price for fuel. Keep in mind, they are still hedged at $50 a barrel, roughly $18-20 less than current market values. However, that is way up from $35 hedges previously. They still have more to go when the hedges start running out completedly. When that happens, WN is going to have some really serious troubles. If you think this is hyperbole, consider how many ASMs WN flies in a year and then consider that their fuel bill will effectively double in a few short years (from $35 hedged to $70 post hedging). That is billions of dollars in added costs, not millions.
 
SANFan
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:31 pm

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 23):
This makes me wonder with this schedule reduction of approximately 10 aircraft, what routes have gained the additional service.

Let's not forget that WN is in the midst of starting up SFO (and doubling their real estate to 4 gates later this year) so I would not be surprised to see a big hunk of growth there. Maybe some more DEN and there are plenty of other P-2-P routes to be added all around the system (as they have concentrated on doing this whole year!)

Quoting VictorKilo (Reply 2):
The BWI-SAN nonstop flights are still available for booking, just not BWI-LAX and BWI-OAK, or PHL-OAK or PHL-LAX.
BWI-SAN has more O&D than BWI-OAK and has a 17% higher yield based on the Q3 O&D figures, so I can see cutting BWI-OAK but not BWI-SAN. Plus, with gate space at LAX at a premium, the LAX transcons may not be as profitable as other potential LAX routes - could the four n/s transcons from LAX be replaced by four daily DEN-LAX flights?

Wow; SAN is keeping flights that LAX is losing... never thought I'd see the day. (And I've been pushing for SAN-PHL. Guess I'll stop doing that.)

As for gate space at a premium at LAX, that's also getting to be the case in SAN as of September. But LA is losing 4 flights (trans-cons) while SAN has only 2. And of course the yield is the most important factor anyway.

I don't think we will see LA-Denver any more than we'll see LA-SF; as you pointed out, gate space is too valuable and they can use the space better than either of those very crowded markets.

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 14):
They have to be doing something with these planes... and also they are going to be re-doing their schedule (another optimization) for early November, that should be published within the next month.

What I find most interesting about the timing here is that they are closing these flights down on or about 10/04 when, as RL757' has pointed out, WN is due for a major schedule release less than a month later (11/03!) Kind of strange to go to all this trouble when a month later, they could just kill any flights they want and not have to re-accommodate anyone already holding reservations...  scratchchin  Very peculiar!

Quoting VictorKilo (Reply 15):
What's interesting to me is that, in addition to the extremely long flights being targeted, many of the flights with reduced frequencies are the short flights. Five of the twenty shortest routes WN currently flies (HOU-AUS, MCO-FLL, BWI-ISP, and RNO-OAK/SJC), all of which are under 225 miles, lose a roundtrip flight.

...and...

Quoting Pgtravel (Reply 3):
One less nonstop flight (usually late night/early morning):
PHX-PVD/RDU
HOU-AUS/STL
FLL-MCO
ISP-BWI/MDW
RNO-OAK/SJC
PHX-LAX
ABQ-AMA

I don't know how of many of these flights this applies to but let's remember that the trans-cons often have tag-ons on either or both ends; i.e., in late August, flight 293 operates BWI-SAN-SFO and flight 2114 op's SFO-SAN-BWI-PVD. If they cancelled the SAN-BWI r/t, the tag-ons would probably also go away (temporarily anyway.) I'm sure the same applies to the OAK and LAX trans-cons as well, so that RNO-OAK flight that is listed as going away might be a tag-on to an OAK trans-con; the same for ISP-BWI. Maybe the MDW-ISP is a tag-on to the SNA-MDW flight that is disappearing.

WN is always good at some action that gets the juices flowing here on A.net!  Smile

bb
 
halls120
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:31 pm

Quoting ATLAaron (Reply 19):
Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 7):Very interesting. Looks like United Airlines will be the winner in a few of these markets.
Good, well hopefully they can raise the fares on these routes to profitable levels and improve yield. However, hopefully they will not go overboard and gouge travelers.

They can't on IAD-OAK, unless B6 joins them in gouging.
"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself." Mark Twain, a Biography
 
SJCRRPAX
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:33 pm

Quoting VictorKilo (Reply 15):
Add one more to the list - one less flight on PHL-PVD.

What's interesting to me is that, in addition to the extremely long flights being targeted, many of the flights with reduced frequencies are the short flights. Five of the twenty shortest routes WN currently flies (HOU-AUS, MCO-FLL, BWI-ISP, and RNO-OAK/SJC), all of which are under 225 miles, lose a roundtrip flight.

Not sure exactly what this means, but I find it interesting.

Don't they regularly adjust their schedule? For Instance, come October there probably isn't much of a demand for a 6:30AM weekday flight from SJC to RNO, especially when you have 4 or 5 other non-stops that day. I wonder if dropping an OAK long distance flight will mean an extra flight at SFO. This all seems like a yawner to me.  zzz 
 
SANFan
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 5:50 pm

Quoting SJCRRPAX (Reply 27):
This all seems like a yawner to me.

I don't find it that way at all, SJC'. I don't think it's necessarily the end of civil aviation as we know it either, but somewhere in between maybe.  Wink

It looks to me like just another on-going adjustment to the business environment that WN does (and, in my opinion, does very well.) Simple: if something isn't working as well as it should or could, change it or get rid of it. The beauty of an airline is that the airplane (a major commodity of the business) is flexible; if it isn't doing the job here, move it (very easily) somewhere else. (Home Depot for example can't just relocate a store if it isn't performing as hoped!)

Seems to me WN is just doing a major bit of culling and I don't think any of the stations involved will end up in the long run losing much of anything. I know that OAK/LAX/BWI and PHL will just see other flights replace these trans-cons and I would imagine the other flights that are disappearing are probably residual damage as a/c are redeployed and they too will quickly be replaced.

There are probably a few under-performers that are getting the axe as well. I wonder, for example, if the r/t SNA-MDW flight is being cancelled in order to use the freed-up "slot" for more frequency on a proven route, or some other new one? Or maybe the flight was not supporting itself and it was just time to cut it loose.

This all simply gives WN even more planes for those people in Schedule Planning to match with the markets that need more capacity and maybe there'll be some surprises.

As I mentioned earlier, the one thing that bothers me is the timing of this action. But perhaps the reason will become clearer as the summer goes on...

Excuse me, I have some schedules to study...

bb
 
CV990A
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 8:08 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 25):
the same for ISP-BWI

Close- the plane that runs the canned ISP-BWI flight comes in from LAS and then when it gets to BWI it does a late BWI-BDL flight.
Kittens Give Morbo Gas
 
PHLBOS
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 8:58 pm

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 7):
That would equate to a win for the following airlines

~Los Angeles to Philadelphia
United Airlines, US Airways

Memo to Philly travellers bound for CA this fall that want to fly non-stop: HOLD ON to your wallets!

Quoting VictorKilo (Reply 15):
Add one more to the list - one less flight on PHL-PVD.

Which flight is getting dropped? I hope WN's not making the same mistake that they did w/PHL-BDL. Their final flight had a scheduled departure times before 5 PM; WAY TOO EARLY for many business travelers.

Quoting ATLAaron (Reply 19):
Good, well hopefully they can raise the fares on these routes to profitable levels and improve yield. However, hopefully they will not go overboard and gouge travelers.

Given the network carrier's past history of handling matters such as these; I believe the latter will most likely happen. Example: check out US' recent PHL-BDL fares.
"TransEastern! You'll feel like you've never left the ground because we treat you like dirt!" SNL Parady ad circa 1981
 
flyingcat
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 10:24 pm

WN expansion in PHL is based on their assumption, correct or incorrect, that PHL will take off.

However as evidenced by the recent sale for most PHL nonstops, the short term is not looking good as loads are not very high. WN's most profit always are on short hauls. Long hauls at their pricing levels are just not worth it to them.
 
RL757PVD
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 10:45 pm

Quoting PHLBOS (Reply 30):
Which flight is getting dropped? I hope WN's not making the same mistake that they did w/PHL-BDL. Their final flight had a scheduled departure times before 5 PM; WAY TOO EARLY for many business travelers.

its the first PHL-PVD (probably empty anyways, leaves PHL at 6 something am) and the first PVD-PHL (0645), there is still a morning flight 1 hour later at 7:45, so the schedule still remains diverse and practical. I think the 0645 PVD-PHL didn't do that bad, but it was the completely empty PHL-PVD early mornign segment that killed it.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
usairways85
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RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:13 pm

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 32):
its the first PHL-PVD (probably empty anyways, leaves PHL at 6 something am) and the first PVD-PHL (0645),

PVD-PHL flt 3150 leaving PVD at 655 has been zeroed out
PHL-PVD flt 1093 leaving PHL at 645 has been zeroed out
 
MSYtristar
Posts: 7543
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:52 am

RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:15 pm

The local paper here reported a few weeks back that WN was looking into adding more MSY-HOU flights as well as increased service to Chicago, Nashville and the "Boston area". Schedulers were on record saying that the fall would be a great oppurtunity for WN to add flights to MSY. We shall see.

FYI, I see a 10th MSY-HOU in the schedules as of mid October. Perhaps more are on the way.
 
EXAAUADL
Posts: 1740
Joined: Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:48 am

RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:17 pm

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 5):
Basically I think those flights were just too expensive in terms of CASM

What youre witnessing is the effect of expiring fuel hedges and possibly price sensitive market....Gordon Bethune said WN made a huge mistake by not raising fares when they had fuel hedges.
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 15259
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:20 pm

Quoting PHLBOS (Reply 30):
Memo to Philly travellers bound for CA this fall that want to fly non-stop: HOLD ON to your wallets!

Aren't they the ones that got themselves in this position in the first place Wink?
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
FLYGUY767
Posts: 1441
Joined: Thu May 24, 2007 11:26 pm

RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:24 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 25):


Let's not forget that WN is in the midst of starting up SFO (and doubling their real estate to 4 gates later this year) so I would not be surprised to see a big hunk of growth there. Maybe some more DEN and there are plenty of other P-2-P routes to be added all around the system (as they have concentrated on doing this whole year!)

This may be a outlandish idea but what about the following addition to San Francisco with Southwest Airlines~

Burbank
United Airlines/United Express has zero competition on this route
-Southwest Airlines could enter this route and offer much lower fares than what are currently offered

Ontario
United Airlines/United Express has zero competition on this route
-Southwest Airlines could enter this route and offer much lower fares than what are currently offered

Phoenix
United Airlines, US Airways route
-Southwest Airlines could enter this route and offer much lower fares than what are currently offered

Portland
United Airlines, Alaska Airlines route
-Southwest Airlines could enter this route and offer much lower fares than what are currently offered

Seattle
United Airlines, Alaska Airlines route
-Southwest Airlines could enter this route and offer much lower fares than what are currently offered

Tucson
United Airlines/United Express has zero competition on this route
-Southwest Airlines could enter this route and offer much lower fares than what are currently offered

-JD
Summer Trip 2007: DEN HAAG>DUBAI>LONDON>VERONA>COSTA SMERALDA>CAPRI
 
DesertAir
Posts: 1265
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 1:34 am

RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 3:55 am

[quote=SANFan,reply=25]Wow; SAN is keeping flights that LAX is losing... never thought I'd see the day. (And I've been pushing for SAN-PHL. Guess I'll stop doing that.)

I connect through SAN frequently from TUS and SAN flights in and out always seem packed.
 
USPIT10L
Posts: 1868
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 12:24 am

RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 3:59 am

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 37):
Burbank
United Airlines/United Express has zero competition on this route
-Southwest Airlines could enter this route and offer much lower fares than what are currently offered

Ontario
United Airlines/United Express has zero competition on this route
-Southwest Airlines could enter this route and offer much lower fares than what are currently offered

Phoenix
United Airlines, US Airways route
-Southwest Airlines could enter this route and offer much lower fares than what are currently offered

Portland
United Airlines, Alaska Airlines route
-Southwest Airlines could enter this route and offer much lower fares than what are currently offered

Seattle
United Airlines, Alaska Airlines route
-Southwest Airlines could enter this route and offer much lower fares than what are currently offered

Tucson
United Airlines/United Express has zero competition on this route
-Southwest Airlines could enter this route and offer much lower fares than what are currently offered

Those don't sound too far-fetched, especially BUR, ONT, SNA, or PDX, knowing WN's battle plans in the past. But also remember, they fly to most of these cities via OAK or SJC, so they may be losing some of the natural feed they have in these markets (not that 22x daily flights from LAX-OAK or SJC will take a hit, mind you).
It's a Great Day for Hockey!
 
FLYGUY767
Posts: 1441
Joined: Thu May 24, 2007 11:26 pm

RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 4:01 am

Quoting USPIT10L (Reply 39):
Those don't sound too far-fetched, especially BUR, ONT, SNA, or PDX

SNA is maxed out in slots now.. I would love to see them on the SFO-SNA route, but they dont have the slots to make the route a go without purging slots from SMF, OAK, or SJC to SNA. That will not happen.

-JD
Summer Trip 2007: DEN HAAG>DUBAI>LONDON>VERONA>COSTA SMERALDA>CAPRI
 
USPIT10L
Posts: 1868
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 12:24 am

RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 4:07 am

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 40):
SNA is maxed out in slots now.. I would love to see them on the SFO-SNA route, but they dont have the slots to make the route a go without purging slots from SMF, OAK, or SJC to SNA. That will not happen.

Thanks for that tidbit. I didn't read the whole post, that's why SNA was listed.
It's a Great Day for Hockey!
 
EXAAUADL
Posts: 1740
Joined: Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:48 am

RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 4:26 am

I think before WN grows in SOF, they should wait to see how the current markets perform both financially and operationally.
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 2530
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 5:51 am

I guess the next question is.... where are these planes going to be going?
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
Tornado82
Posts: 4662
Joined: Thu May 26, 2005 10:19 am

RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 6:00 am

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 43):
I guess the next question is.... where are these planes going to be going?

Don't forget about the so-called Secret WN overcapacity plan that I believe OPNLguy (??) told us about awhile back. "Retire all 73-classics" This could just be the beginning of that possibly? Dump long runs, stick those 73G's on short runs, replace classics. Just throwing an idea out there folks, don't kill me for it.
 
atlaaron
Posts: 973
Joined: Mon Apr 24, 2006 11:30 pm

RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 6:11 am

SNA has really grown in the last 5-10 years hasn't it? I know I sure have flown in and out of there a lot in the last 2 years. Seems like good yields come out of there too.
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 2530
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 6:20 am

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 44):
Don't forget about the so-called Secret WN overcapacity plan that I believe OPNLguy (??) told us about awhile back. "Retire all 73-classics" This could just be the beginning of that possibly?

Though arent they outfitting a bunch of those with winglets as we speak?
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
FLYGUY767
Posts: 1441
Joined: Thu May 24, 2007 11:26 pm

RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 6:25 am

Quoting ATLAaron (Reply 45):
SNA has really grown in the last 5-10 years hasn't it? I know I sure have flown in and out of there a lot in the last 2 years. Seems like good yields come out of there too.

It indeed has some of the highest yields in the state..

There has an will continue to be ongoing growth at SNA. However, I for one miss the days of the almost hourly UA 757's in the mid 1990's up the coast to San Francisco. Additionally their is a massive project in the works for an airport revitalization.

Quoting EXAAUADL (Reply 42):
I think before WN grows in SOF, they should wait to see how the current markets perform both financially and operationally.

WN... to Sofia, Bulgaria...???  stirthepot 

-JD
Summer Trip 2007: DEN HAAG>DUBAI>LONDON>VERONA>COSTA SMERALDA>CAPRI
 
asuflyer05
Posts: 2054
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 8:53 am

RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 7:06 am

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 9):
I wouldn't read too much into WN "getting beat" in these markets.



Quoting DCA-ROCguy (Reply 22):
We haven't heard boo from Southwest yet, just one A.netter found some likely schedule adjustments coming at a time of year when some airlines do some seasonal capacity shifting.

What makes this significant is because the flights were zeroed out before a major schedule update and it is a large chunk of their trans-con flying. If a small handful of flights went away during a schedule update it would be indicative of just "schedule tweaking."

Quoting Flyingcat (Reply 31):
WN expansion in PHL is based on their assumption, correct or incorrect, that PHL will take off.

IMHO much of their PHL entrance was based on the assumption that US Airways would not be around.

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 44):
Don't forget about the so-called Secret WN overcapacity plan that I believe OPNLguy (??) told us about awhile back. "Retire all 73-classics" This could just be the beginning of that possibly? Dump long runs, stick those 73G's on short runs, replace classics. Just throwing an idea out there folks, don't kill me for it.

Some of the frequency reductions on remaining routes may be indiciative of a reduction in aircraft. It is also typical of airlines to reduce frequencies in the fall as the demand drops and aircraft begin to head to the hangar for major maintinence.

And trust me, if the flights were making money they wouldn't be dumping them.
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 4437
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

RE: WN To Cut BWI-LAX/OAK, PHL-LAX/OAK?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 7:51 am

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 47):
There has an will continue to be ongoing growth at SNA.

SNA will see limited growth. SNA handled 9.6 million passengers last year. They are capped per the settlement agreement to 10.3 million in 2010 and 10.8 million in 2015.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain

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