davidlc3
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What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 11:22 am

One thing I have not seen (may have overlooked) is a statement by AirTran with reference to their code-share with Frontier if/when the YX merger goes through.

With YX's MCI hub, is this too close to DEN for comfort?

Any chance the merger will force a jetBlue/Frontier marriage?


And while I'm on the merger topic - having worked for FL and for YX let me tell you - from the employee side - that is going to be one nasty marriage.
 
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mariner
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 11:24 am

Quoting Davidlc3 (Thread starter):
One thing I have not seen (may have overlooked) is a statement by AirTran with reference to their code-share with Frontier if/when the YX merger goes through.

Airtran and Frontier do not have a code share.

Not yet, anyway.

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CarsAir04
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 11:31 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 1):
Airtran and Frontier do not have a code share.

Correct, it is more of a, Frontier doesn't fly there, but Airtran does, so go to their website and vice versa. They allow their passengers to either earn Frontier FF miles or Airtran FF miles. Looking at Midwest map, it is similar to that of Airtran in that from Denver, Midwest only goes to Milwaukee and Airtran only goes to Atlanta. It could be a good match up for the same type of deal.
 
davidlc3
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 11:37 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 1):
Airtran and Frontier do not have a code share

You are correct Mariner - I stand corrected. They have a "marketing" relationship.

Regardless of the nomenclature, FL runs mainly north-south and feeds Frontier E-W. YX is also a prodominantly E-W airline...is there a conflict there?

Personally I really hope this forces Jb and Zoo to hook up - that would be one great looking route map.
 
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mariner
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 11:44 am

Quoting Davidlc3 (Reply 3):
Personally I really hope this forces Jb and Zoo to hook up - that would be one great looking route map.

I can't think why it would "force" it.

And, on the downside, there would be no "zoo" anymore - the animal tails would likely go. There would difficulties with different engines, the regional provider contracts, difficulties with unions, and I have no idea where Lynx would fit into the merged equation.

And I'm not sure why anyone would want to buy into the revenue mess that is going on DEN right now.

But, yeh, the route map might look nice.

 Smile

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davidlc3
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 11:48 am

All true statements - the animal tail ads are the best - I would hate to see those go.

But every merger has major difficulties. At least these 2 have common fleet types (save engines) cutting down on a multitude of problems and costs.

The route network works well as do the cultures.

The E-jets could replace the CRJs out of DEN and Lynx...well, that might serve purposes on both coasts. Possibly add some LYNX between JFK and smaller upstate NY cities as a more-traditional feed?

The positives so outweigh the negatives when compared to other mergers...AW/US comes to mind  Smile

 Big grin
 
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mariner
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 11:52 am

Quoting Davidlc3 (Reply 5):
The E-jets could replace the CRJs out of DEN

Within six months, there won't be any CRJ's out of DEN. And I can't think that Lynx would be of much value on the saturated coasts.

Quoting Davidlc3 (Reply 5):
But every merger has major difficulties.

That is very true. So - why do you want a merger?

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davidlc3
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 11:56 am

As much as I hate to admit it I think we need some consolidation in the industry. Service levels are at an all time low while load factors at an all time high.

A disastorous merger throws a wrench into the cycle and opens, temporarily, a window for new competition while the newly merged airline sorts things out.

I actually think WN will buy someone sooner than later but I'm not sure who.

And while I don't think it will happen I really wish a CO/AS hook up would happen - great marriage of service-equals.
 
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mariner
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 12:01 pm

Quoting Davidlc3 (Reply 7):
As much as I hate to admit it I think we need some consolidation in the industry

Okay, but why this one? Why ant airline with major operations at DEN?

Revenue at DEN is lousy. Last summer, DEN was the only major airport to show declining airfares. This summer, average air fares at DEN are 5% less than last summer.

Yes, the planes are full, but every airline out there is talking of soft revenue. It is at its worst at DEN.

Quoting Davidlc3 (Reply 7):
A disastorous merger throws a wrench into the cycle and opens, temporarily, a window for new competition while the newly merged airline sorts things out.

There is no evidence that this would be an "easy" merger, and, given the situation at DEN, you might end up with a disaster on your hands.

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CitrusCritter
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 12:07 pm

Quoting Davidlc3 (Reply 7):
And while I don't think it will happen I really wish a CO/AS hook up would happen - great marriage of service-equals.

Having worked on Capitol Hill, I feel rather certain that no one will go anywhere near AS until Sen. Ted Stevens and Rep. Don Young are out of Congress, which will be when both keel over on the floor of their respective chamber. The political headache they would create for anyone seeking to buy AS, especially if it was a hostile bid, would be beyond comprehension. Sen. Kohl is trying to create some headaches for FL in regards to the YX takeover by insisting on some very strict investigations in regards to anti-trust and some other regulations. That's child's play compared to the sort of stuff Alaska's two big-guns would come up with. In other words, I don't think any savvy airline would touch AS without it being both a "friendly" takeover and without first clearing it in Washington, where they would almost certainly have to agree to continue AS' cargo and EAS routes ad infinitum.
 
davidlc3
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 12:16 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 8):
Okay, but why this one? Why ant airline with major operations at DEN?

Let's look at it another way... Zoo buying Blue...

With abysmal revenue out of DEN wouldn't Zoo be looking for a way to enhance revenue such as in the world's top aviation market? Zoo's insistance on ticking off red-tail-no-service shows a lack of creativity on an otherwise incredible airline. Maybe they need Zoo's creative route planning to help them survive...
 
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 12:30 pm

F9 has a market cap of $215mn with $200 mn in cash reserves. B6's market cap is $2.01bn with just $10mn in cash. though over $900mn in short term investments. I'm not expert on mergers (yet!  Smile), but I seem to think that acquiring F9 would be significantly less expensive than acquiring B6. B6 would be very expensive, while F9 would be very affordable as their cash reserves are significant compared to their market cap and could be used to float the stock purchase.
 
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mariner
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 12:44 pm

Quoting Davidlc3 (Reply 10):
Let's look at it another way... Zoo buying Blue...

Absolutely not going to happen. It would take a stash of money that Frontier does not have, and Frotnier prides itself on its lack of debt, the only debt they have is the new aircraft mortgages.

To take on an airline the size of JetBlue (which isn't exactly super-profitable these days) would be like David trying swallow Goliath.

Quoting Davidlc3 (Reply 10):
wouldn't Zoo be looking for a way to enhance revenue such as in the world's top aviation market?

The world's top aviation market is saturated already.

Quoting Davidlc3 (Reply 10):
Zoo's insistance on ticking off red-tail-no-service shows a lack of creativity on an otherwise incredible airline.

You do know that DEN-MEM goes to 3 x daily at the end of the year, MEM-MCO goes to 2 x daily and MEM-LAS goes full daily?

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justplanenutz
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 1:31 pm

Quoting CitrusCritter (Reply 9):
until Sen. Ted Stevens and Rep. Don Young are out of Congress, which will be when both keel over on the floor of their respective chamber

Oh what a happy day. No bridges to nowhere or fundraiser highways. I too worked on Capitol Hill and as a Republican, but these two make dinsaurs look space-age.
 
HPRamper
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 2:16 pm

Quoting Davidlc3 (Reply 7):
I actually think WN will buy someone sooner than later but I'm not sure who.

WN won't go anywhere near the legacies...why would they? And aside from those...the smaller LCCs would be obvious targets, but not many operate Boeing equipment. WN won't acquire an all-Airbus airline. So count out jetBlue, Frontier and Spirit. Leaving...who? Sun Country?

Quoting Mariner (Reply 8):
Revenue at DEN is lousy. Last summer, DEN was the only major airport to show declining airfares. This summer, average air fares at DEN are 5% less than last summer.

Gee, I wonder who is to thank for that  Smile
 
CitrusCritter
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 2:20 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 14):
WN won't acquire an all-Airbus airline. So count out jetBlue, Frontier and Spirit. Leaving...who? Sun Country?

SY, FL, HA, AQ
 
AirframeAS
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Fri Jun 22, 2007 2:46 pm

Quoting Davidlc3 (Reply 7):
And while I don't think it will happen I really wish a CO/AS hook up would happen - great marriage of service-equals.

It will never happen. AS shareholders wouldn't dare to allow it to happen. CO & AS already has a very strong codeshare. And to add, AS is a codeshare whore. They are not even in any alliance at at all. Why fix something that isn't broken? This has been beat to death over and over throughout the years. It's just not going to happen unless the AS shareholders favor it, which they don't.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 14):
WN won't go anywhere near the legacies

 checkmark 

As for the topic, I hope F9 does not merge with anybody. Why alter a culture that is going really well...and not to mention....the spokesanimals??  Wink They are doing well!
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TrvlnMan
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Sun Jun 24, 2007 1:47 am

Quoting Davidlc3 (Reply 7):
As much as I hate to admit it I think we need some consolidation in the industry. Service levels are at an all time low while load factors at an all time high.


I don't think consolidation will help service levels one bit. Look at US/HP! Merging 2 companies always causes labor issues and it takes forever to get things straightened out. What we need is to allow union groups to strike, and if that causes the demise of a poor performing carrier, so be it.
 
ikramerica
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Sun Jun 24, 2007 1:58 am

Quoting CitrusCritter (Reply 15):
AQ

Best bet. I think it's a matter of time with this one. AQ is privately owned, losing money again, has the same types of planes. And it would remove premium capacity across the pacific.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
travatl
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Sun Jun 24, 2007 7:43 am

Quoting TrvlnMan (Reply 17):
What we need is to allow union groups to strike, and if that causes the demise of a poor performing carrier, so be it.

Amen.
 
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mariner
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Sun Jun 24, 2007 11:17 am

Just for the record - there was an interview with CEO Barger of JetBlue in the Wall Street Journal this past week.

I won't link to it because it is subscription only, but Mr. Barger said that JetBlue has no interest in acquiring another airline - and no interest in being acquired by another airline.

He said that JetBlue is interested in alliances with other airlines.

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AirframeAS
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Sun Jun 24, 2007 1:03 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 20):

Thats excellent news! The more, the merrier! I would support a B6-F9 codeshare, but definately not a merger.
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N200WN
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Sun Jun 24, 2007 3:03 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 12):
You do know that DEN-MEM goes to 3 x daily at the end of the year, MEM-MCO goes to 2 x daily and MEM-LAS goes full daily?

Add SAT to your list for increased service...a third flight is being added in July.
 
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mariner
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RE: What Happens To Frontier If FL/YX Merge?

Sun Jun 24, 2007 3:12 pm

Quoting N200WN (Reply 22):
Add SAT to your list for increased service...a third flight is being added in July.

I wasn't aware of that. Very good news - thank you.  Smile

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