flashmeister
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Lynx Announcement?

Tue Jun 26, 2007 5:56 am

Perhaps I missed something, but isn't F9 way overdue for announcing the Lynx routes? I know there was speculation on a couple of cities discussed (based on advertised jobs or clues found in F9's Route Map), but I haven't seen a for-sure list, yet, and there's no press release that I could find.

Anyone have any more information?
 
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mariner
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Tue Jun 26, 2007 6:01 am

Quoting Flashmeister (Thread starter):
Anyone have any more information?

It's all with the DOT, just like Virgin America.

Both airlines have their AOC from the DOT, both are waiting for full FAA approval.

Both have applied to the DOT for a waiver to start selling tickets. The DOT has not yet granted that waiver, in either case.

mariner
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CarsAir04
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Tue Jun 26, 2007 8:23 am

Quoting Flashmeister (Thread starter):
clues found in F9's Route Map

I have seen the advertisements, but i am looking for these clues in the map. Do you mean the wide open areas they don't fly to, like the SE, etc?
 
Tornado82
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Tue Jun 26, 2007 10:57 am

Quoting CarsAir04 (Reply 2):
Do you mean the wide open areas they don't fly to, like the SE, etc?

Surely they're not going to fly Q400's DEN-Southeast.
 
CarsAir04
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Tue Jun 26, 2007 11:06 am

You wouldn't think so. I remember when they first applied and there were cities on the list that boggled the mind. The one that comes to mind is Greer, SC. I think that was it. That is way over the 650-700 mile range.
 
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mariner
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Tue Jun 26, 2007 11:16 am

Quoting CarsAir04 (Reply 4):
I remember when they first applied and there were cities on the list that boggled the mind.

Hmmm? The only city on the RFP in South Carolina that I remember was GSP, and that was never intended for Lynx.

GSP has applied for a grant to intiate the service GSP/DEN - with E170's.

The RFP was to cover Lynx and the Republic E170 flying. The Lynx Q400's will be based at DEN and fly no further than about 650 miles.

mariner
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CarsAir04
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Tue Jun 26, 2007 11:23 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 5):
city on the RFP in South Carolina that I remember was GSP

Thats right. I just remember Greer for some reason. Looking at Greer on mapquest, right smack in the middle of Greenville- Spartanville. Also, maybe this has been posted already, but I am hearing that a little lynx will be the first animal on the tail. Very appropriate.
 
FlyHoss
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Tue Jun 26, 2007 1:50 pm

Look for Missoula and Wichita to be the first two cities served by Lynx.
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DL777LAX
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Tue Jun 26, 2007 4:35 pm

Quoting FlyHoss (Reply 7):
Look for Missoula and Wichita to be the first two cities served by Lynx.

source? or just an educated guess?

Either way, sounds good to me. Although ICT seems like it would be better off with the Ejets, thats just my opinion.
Blindly following anything is bad, unless of course your blind and your following a guide dog.
 
stapleton
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Tue Jun 26, 2007 11:20 pm

Wichita yes, Missoula no. Close though, Billings will likely get some of the first Lynx planes.
 
mtnwest1979
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Tue Jun 26, 2007 11:56 pm

Quoting CarsAir04 (Reply 6):
Thats right. I just remember Greer for some reason. Looking at Greer on mapquest, right smack in the middle of Greenville- Spartanville. Also, maybe this has been posted already, but I am hearing that a little lynx will be the first animal on the tail. Very appropriate.

Greer is where the Greenville-Spartanburg airport is located.
"If it ain't broke, don't fix it!"
 
floridaflyboy
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:48 am

Quoting Stapleton (Reply 9):
Wichita yes, Missoula no. Close though, Billings will likely get some of the first Lynx planes.

That's correct. It's all but confirmed up here that Lynx will replace Horizon on the service to Billings, not Republic. I could see them starting Missoula as well, though. It's a pretty fast-growing market.
Good goes around!
 
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 3:54 am

Quoting DL777LAX (Reply 8):
Quoting FlyHoss (Reply 7):
Look for Missoula and Wichita to be the first two cities served by Lynx.

source? or just an educated guess?

Either way, sounds good to me. Although ICT seems like it would be better off with the Ejets, thats just my opinion.

My source is from two Lynx employees; both stated Missoula and Wichita in seperate conversations. However, that was a few weeks ago, and it's certainly possible that a change has been made. If I get an update from either one, I'll post it.
A little bit louder now, a lil bit louder now...
 
CarsAir04
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 9:24 am

Wichita has been publicized as far as some preliminary job advertisements there, but I had not seen any reports for Missoula. I wouldn't be surprised if F9 starts announcing in the very near future, possibly even this week. The waiver they applied for to start selling tickets has been on high priority. Where would one go to see the waiver and if the DOT has ruled on it?
 
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mariner
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 10:04 am

Quoting CarsAir04 (Reply 13):
Where would one go to see the waiver and if the DOT has ruled on it?

The waiver application (the second one):

http://dmses.dot.gov/docimages/pdf101/471904_web.pdf

If you go here:

http://dms.dot.gov/search/searchFormSimple.cfm

- and type in the docket number - 27074 - it will/should up all the filings in connection with Lynx.

mariner

[Edited 2007-06-27 03:12:01]
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geg2rap
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 10:10 am

I will add some more doubt to MSO. There is some runway work going on this summer (august last time I looked at the website) and 3 weekends the main runway will be shutdown, not the best time to start service.
BIL and ICT and the two starters for my bet.

Really should hit up RAP during August, can't sell too many tickets around rally time. (and for quite a price)
Jeremy
 
stapleton
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Thu Jun 28, 2007 5:06 am

What will Frontier's response be to the new Southwest route announcements in regard to Lynx? The future flight schedules show a definite increase in block time between DEN - ABQ and DEN - OKC on all the "Horizon" operated flights even though Horizon will no longer be flying for Frontier after the end of the year. The schedules to ELP, TUL and BIL also show significant block time increases as the year progresses. Could these block time increases be due to the slightly slower Q400 on these routes? (The OKC flights are most obvious because only one of the three flights is operated by "Horizon" in January and its block time is 10 minutes more than the "Republic" operated flights.

I guess the question is, with Southwest announcing DEN-ABQ and DEN-OKC, what will Frontier do? Horizon seems to compete well with WN in the northwest with the Q400. Or, will Frontier want to keep jets on these routes?

Also, I believe AMA was a potential Lynx market. Was this a pre-emptive strike by WN or were they just looking at an under served market with through DAL service?

Very interesting game of cat and mouse here.
 
ShannoninAMA
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Thu Jun 28, 2007 10:38 pm

Quoting Stapleton (Reply 16):
Also, I believe ama was a potential Lynx market. Was this a pre-emptive strike by WN or were they just looking at an under served market with through DAL service?

I was hoping it was a potential market at least, now im wondering if one of two things would happen

1) Frontier leaves WN alone and lets them operate WN in peace

2) They start up with some sort of Lynx route, competing with WN...which could end up in a bloodbath (im leaning towards a tad of overcapacity in this case)

What do you guys see happening?

Quoting Stapleton (Reply 16):

Very interesting game of cat and mouse here.

 checkmark  indeed.
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jmc1975
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Thu Jun 28, 2007 11:55 pm

Quoting DL777LAX (Reply 8):
Either way, sounds good to me. Although ICT seems like it would be better off with the Ejets, thats just my opinion.

DEN-ICT is a short enough segment that the CASM of the Q400 is far superior to that of the E-170.
.......
 
stapleton
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 3:20 am

Quoting ShannoninAMA (Reply 17):
What do you guys see happening?

I don't see Frontier considering AMA now. It is one thing to go up against WN in a large market, it is suicide to do it in a small market.

Frontier has some big challenges coming up. They really need to get the waiver to announce cities so that they can start selling tickets. I don't believe this process is going as smoothly as they had hoped. It also appears that Southwest smells blood. 20+ years ago, another airline with the same name found itself between the behemouth of United and a low cost Continental. Very similar to today only switching Continental to Southwest. I think this Frontier has a chance to survive, but there can't be many mis-steps.
 
graphic
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 3:26 am

WN may be doing it to beat F9 to it, but if F9 throws a single (or two) Q400(s) up against a 737 I think you'll see F9 winning the market vis a vis the sparseish traffic between the two cities (the southwest announcement increases the city pair capacity by something like 500% does it not) and the superior economics of the Q400 in regional markets as compared to the 737.
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stapleton
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 3:46 am

Quoting Graphic (Reply 20):
WN may be doing it to beat F9 to it, but if F9 throws a single (or two) Q400(s) up against a 737 I think you'll see F9 winning the market vis a vis the sparseish traffic between the two cities (the southwest announcement increases the city pair capacity by something like 500% does it not) and the superior economics of the Q400 in regional markets as compared to the 737.

But why would Frontier want to "win" the AMA market when it makes more sense to "win" a market that Southwest doesn't fly to since this other market likely has higher yields since they don't have Southwest. While the Q400 is a great economic airplane, AMA is a Southwest dominated market. Frontier would be the "newby". This is not the same as Southwest going up against Horizon since in that case, the market was dominated by Horizon and Southwest was the newby. For these reasons, I can't see Frontier considering AMA now.
 
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mariner
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 4:19 am

Quoting Stapleton (Reply 19):
. I don't believe this process is going as smoothly as they had hoped.

There is nothing either Frontier/Lybx or Virgin America can do.

I am told that normally, the DOT only grants that particular waiver 40 days before start of service. Both airlines are hopeful the DOT will do it earlier.

The problem, in both case, is not with the DOT, but with the FAA, who have not yet given approval to either airline. With FAA approval, the waiver becomes irrelevant.

Quoting Stapleton (Reply 19):
I don't see Frontier considering AMA now.

Although AMA was on the RFP, I don;t think it went much further than that. There are other cities that are much more attractive, and making themselves prettier.

FSD, for example, was ready to cough up nearly $500,000 in help if Frontier started service there, and even such places as ASE are offering some form of help, be it simply in the form of relaxed fees or marketing.

I had not heard AMA was even in negotiation with them, beyond responding to the RFP.

mariner
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stapleton
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 4:24 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 22):
There are other cities that are much more attractive, and making themselves prettier.

What cities were negotiating with Frontier?
 
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mariner
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 4:41 am

Quoting Stapleton (Reply 23):
What cities were negotiating with Frontier?

The RFP went out to 60 or so cities. I'm not sure they are all still in my head - or that I remember the codes for all for all of them.

Starting with the mountain cities, it includes Aspen and Vail (mostly regarded as certainties) Steamboat Springs (who are hopeful), Sun Valley (who don't think it will happen until next year).

FSD as noted, and even the other airport there (Sioux City, perhaps?) stuck its hand up. RAP wasn't sure - they made an offer, but I don't know if it went further.

ICT, obviously, and DSM, a few others of that kind - meaning area/size. I don't remember if TUL was on the RFP (?), but Lynx staff are already working that station for Frontier flights. BIL is simply replacing one airline - Horizon - with Republic, and then, we believe, Lynx.

There were some surprises on there, such as GSP, but they have applied for a grant to get Frontier/Republic E170 service. I'm not sure why such places as Helensville, AL, were on the list.

Most of the "other" CA cities, were there, PSP, MTY and SBA. Even LGB and BUR. SMX wasn't on the list and asked to be included. I guess any of the CA cities would be for Republic, not for Lynx?

There are several threads about it all, but that covers some of them. I know I've forgotten at least three. It's very early here.

mariner
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ShannoninAMA
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 4:55 am

Quoting Graphic (Reply 20):
WN may be doing it to beat F9 to it, but if F9 throws a single (or two) Q400(s) up against a 737 I think you'll see F9 winning the market vis a vis the sparseish traffic between the two cities (the southwest announcement increases the city pair capacity by something like 500% does it not) and the superior economics of the Q400 in regional markets as compared to the 737.

We might not be able to fill a Q400 alongside two 737s to DEN. However, im sure we could at least halfway fill it up, and probably more. The one thing im thinking about though is, since we have WN as of now, Would Frontier just drop us off the list of consideration? or go in and give it a shot? The main discussion here is if F9 is willing to take a risk in my eyes... scratchchin 

Quoting Mariner (Reply 22):

I had not heard AMA was even in negotiation with them, beyond responding to the RFP.

mariner

 checkmark  Me either

Quoting Stapleton (Reply 21):
AMA is a Southwest dominated market.

 redflag  The reason CO and AA continue to do well here is because we have a fairly high share of "Expedia" travelers. So if they wanted to go to DEN, F9 would be their only, and relatively cheap option. Sure, we have a good share of WN travelers as well, but i wouldnt bet most of them know WN flies to DEN..
Shipwreck alert. Head on over to Airspaceonline.com.
 
stapleton
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 4:59 am

Mariner:

I mention earlier in this thread my thoughts about Frontier schedules later this year and into next year where the block times suddenly increase to BIL, ABQ, TUL, ELP and one flight to OKC. Do you think F9 is looking at using Lynx in all those existing markets? If so, when you add up those flights, BIL - 2 to 3, ABQ - 5, TUL - 3, ELP - 2, OKC - 1, and ICT - 3?, there doesn't seem to be much room left for too many new cities. What are your thoughts?
 
ytib
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 5:13 am

Quoting GEG2RAP (Reply 15):
I will add some more doubt to MSO. There is some runway work going on this summer (august last time I looked at the website) and 3 weekends the main runway will be shutdown, not the best time to start service.
BIL and ICT and the two starters for my bet.

Construction starts the week before Labor Day, and only impacts the weekday travel. The runway will be basically available Friday - Monday. This will be complete by 9/14 which could be prior to the start of Lynx. It would be nice to have them service MSO as the fares are quite high out of here, and possibly some of the routes where Lynx are taking over E170 service will make this even an E170 possibility. Right now, NW offers Airbus service and all other daily flights are RJ's or smaller. Allegiant does have charter service a few days of the week to LAS.

http://www.flymissoula.com/index.aspx/Tennants/1129_Reconstruction
 
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mariner
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 5:13 am

Quoting Stapleton (Reply 26):
BIL, ABQ, TUL, ELP and one flight to OKC.

I think it is a given that TUL will go to Lynx - with Lynx ground staff working the flights already. ICT - they're hiring staff. BIL - for sure.

After that, it becomes anyone's guess. Frontier will have three aircraft (Airbi, E170, Q400) to mix and match as they see demand.

I'd be surprised if ABQ went all Lynx though. I am assuming that ABQ-PVR, on the E170, will be a continuation of DEN-ABQ.

We've been told that the first two or three cities will not be "ski resorts" but the thinking is that Aspen and/or Vail (at least) will probably come on line by winter season.

I agree with you that the delay in granting the waiver may not be the worst thing in the world for Frontier. If nothing else, Southwest has now played their hand for the next little while and Frontier may - or may not - change their thinking.

mariner
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mariner
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 5:20 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 24):
I know I've forgotten at least three. It's very early here.

My apologies to cities like Durango and Grand Junction - also on the list, also have had at least some discussions.

 Smile

mariner
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stapleton
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 7:22 am

It appears that a another potential Lynx market is getting improved service. FSD is going mainline (at least for awhile) on United.
FSD Is Getting UA Mainline Service Again (by Airportguy Jun 29 2007 in Civil Aviation)

Wow, is the industry competitive or what?
 
CIDFlyer
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 7:38 am

Quoting Stapleton (Reply 23):
What cities were negotiating with Frontier?

I know CID was dealing with F9, they needed a $500,000 revenue gurantee. Last I heard a decision was not to come before next year. Service would be on the E70's with 2 flights a day to start. UA on the other hand has slowly been building up its CID-DEN flights after the news broke out. It is to increase to 5x daily this fall (normally has been at 2-3x daily). Probably a pre-emptive strike against F9. I would love to see F9 here, would lower some fares out west.
 
ShannoninAMA
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 8:04 am

Quoting Stapleton (Reply 30):
It appears that a another potential Lynx market is getting improved service. FSD is going mainline (at least for awhile) on United.

FSD Is Getting UA Mainline Service Again (by Airportguy Jun 29 2007 in Civil Aviation)

Wow, is the industry competitive or what?

Wow! Things are really moving along here! Talk about a game of cat and mouse...

I wonder who is next on the list? think MSO or ICT?




Shannon  Smile
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AirframeAS
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 8:33 am

How do I apply to Lynx?? F9's website has no way of applying....
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stlgph
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 9:37 am

Now the $10,000 question -- who would fly a Q400 as opposed to a mainline jet from Southwest or United?
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
ShannoninAMA
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 9:39 am

Quoting STLGph (Reply 34):
Now the $10,000 question -- who would fly a Q400 as opposed to a mainline jet from Southwest or United?

Me!!  Wink


(hey, i like the Q400  Wink )

Shannon Big grin
Shipwreck alert. Head on over to Airspaceonline.com.
 
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mariner
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 9:40 am

Quoting STLGph (Reply 34):
Now the $10,000 question -- who would fly a Q400 as opposed to a mainline jet from Southwest or United?

Horizon doesn't seem to do too badly with their Q400 service.

And I'm not sure anyone is flying a mainline jet into, say, Aspen.

mariner
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stlgph
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 9:54 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 36):
Horizon doesn't seem to do too badly with their Q400 service.

And how many routes are there where they are going against 737's and jets of the sort?
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
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mariner
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 10:08 am

Quoting STLGph (Reply 37):
And how many routes are there where they are going against 737's and jets of the sort?

I've never counted. But - given a choice between a CRJ, or even a CR7, I'd take a Q400 any day. And United seems quite happy to mix them with mainline on DEN-TUL, for example, or DEN-ICT.

But - as always - each to their own.

mariner
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CarsAir04
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 11:17 am

I for one can't wait for Frontier to announce the ski towns. I am really looking forward to waxing up the skis and tossing them on the plane. (Sure will beat driving!). I have not flown in a Q400, but from what I have heard, they are really nice.

to add to Mariners remarks, I think i remember some cities like Rochester and Duluth MN (Duluth seems to be right on the edge as far as distance goes), and if I am remembering right, some cities in Michigan.
 
Tornado82
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 11:18 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 36):

And I'm not sure anyone is flying a mainline jet into, say, Aspen.

Nor will they ever. It wouldn't be legal because of wing span regs, nor operationally possible.

Quoting STLGph (Reply 34):
Now the $10,000 question -- who would fly a Q400 as opposed to a mainline jet from Southwest or United?

I'd definitely ride a Q400 over a Southwest anything. And because I'd like to ride a Q400 I'd even take that over a United mainliner. I'd like that $10,000 in small, untraceable bills please.
 
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mariner
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 2:11 pm

Quoting Stapleton (Reply 23):
What cities were negotiating with Frontier?

I also forgot places like Minot ND - MOT - who are really ticked off with NWA at the moment:

http://www.minotdailynews.com/editorials/articles.asp?articleID=12271

And Grand Forks ND - GFK.

mariner
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floridaflyboy
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 3:30 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 24):
BIL is simply replacing one airline - Horizon - with Republic, and then, we believe, Lynx.

I was told up here in BIL that we will not be getting Republic at all. Do you know something about that? If so, and we are getting republic for a short time, when does that happen? We're still listed as CR7 as far out as the schedule goes.
Good goes around!
 
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mariner
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Fri Jun 29, 2007 4:00 pm

Quoting Floridaflyboy (Reply 42):
If so, and we are getting republic for a short time, when does that happen? We're still listed as CR7 as far out as the schedule goes.

It all ties up with reply #1. Until the FAA approves Lynx, or until the DOT grants the waiver, Frontier can't announce the new cities or take bookings.

I am told they can't even announce Lynx and the Q400 service for cities they already serve, because Lynx has not been approved by the FAA.

Supposedly, the FAA has said "there are no problems" and approval is expected - but not until August. The waiver would solve the immediate problem, but usually (I am told) the DOT does not grant these waivers until 40 days before expected start of service.

I don't know how this affects Virgin America, who had expected to start by mid-summer - and who still don't have their waiver.

All we can do is wait - you can't rush the Feds - but it's a bit of a buzz kill.

mariner
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floridaflyboy
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Sat Jun 30, 2007 5:02 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 43):

Yeah, I understand all of that, but I just noticed that you mentioned Republic, and there has been no talk of Republic up here. The QX guys say that QX will fly the flights right up until they are replaced with the Q400 from Lynx, but working for QX, they aren't as "in the know" as the people who actually work for F9.
Good goes around!
 
stapleton
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RE: Lynx Announcement?

Sat Jun 30, 2007 5:02 am

I think it is interesting that some potential Lynx cities are hearing next year is more likely:

Quoting CIDflyer (Reply 31):
I know CID was dealing with F9, they needed a $500,000 revenue gurantee. Last I heard a decision was not to come before next year.



Quoting Mariner (Reply 24):
Sun Valley (who don't think it will happen until next year).

It is also interesting to look at what airports United has service to that could be served by Lynx. If you rank the airports by seats in October out of Denver (October to reduce seasonal impacts), here are the results down to 148 seats per day:

ICT 482 - This is probably why Lynx is hiring staff here.
ASE 354 - Assumed to be a winter Lynx city
FSD 340 - United just added mainline. Only west bound connections through DEN
RAP 324 - I think a good market since they get both east bound and west bound
DRO 311 - Small market but United all but owns it.
BZN 266 - A fast growing United market. Recently got daily year round to ORD too.
MSO 200 - Good market but west coast is about 40% of the market. DEN not a good hub for west coast cnx
BIS 200 - Only UA and NW here.
FAR 200 - Delta also in this smaller market.
CID 200 - Larger market but only west bound connections through DEN
SGF 200 - Same as above
JAC 194 - Seasonal market, strong winter and summer. Non-existant fall and spring
LNK 150 - Leakage potential here since many drive to OMA
EGE 148 - Assumed to be a winter Lynx city but lots of non-stop competition to several markets
HDN 148 - Smaller winter market with a fair amount of non-stop competition to several markets.

One of Frontier's major strategy changes 12 years ago was to leave small markets and enter the large markets out of DEN. This is why they survived. I think if they go into markets much smaller than these, they return to a much riskier strategy. Consequently, I think Frontier will primarily look at these markets first. Might be a couple of surprises not on the list, but not many. Based on looking at where United has done well, Frontier would probably go down this list and move up or move down a city based on various current conditions and specific Frontier nuances. One other thing that Frontier has done well with out of DEN is the leisure markets (Mexico in particular). They often do well where price discretionary passengers want to go so that might move up some of the vacation markets like BZN, JAC, EGE, HDN. Just some of my ideas on this whole process.

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