tommybp251b
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LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Tue Jun 26, 2007 11:49 pm

Hi Everybody!

I was checking the Boeing orders list of the 747! There is LH with 20 and BBJ with 4 748i. On the other hand we have 63 748F.

http://active.boeing.com/commercial/...pageid=m25065&RequestTimeout=20000

(go to MODEL on the left and choose 747!)

So here are some questions:

1. Will Boeing build the passenger version if the number of 24 orders stays like now?
2. When will they decide, if they will build it?
3. Won't the losses not be high, with only building 24+63 planes?
4. Should they not better concentrate on the 748F?
5. Which version they will build first? 748i or 748F?

Any more thoughts on this topic?m Thx for your answers!

Best Regards Tom
Tom from Cologne
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Tue Jun 26, 2007 11:54 pm

Oh boy - better get your flamesuit on - the Cheerleaders are going to slaughter you.  Wink

The answer is - the 748 programme has already broken even in terms of RoI, so the 748I will be built, as LH are a blue-chip major and have passed over deposits.

I wouldnt worry - the Intercontinental passenger type will probably get more orders from somewhere. I dont think BA will, and I dont think CX will either, but I can totally see Air China, China Airlines, and maybe Saudi getting some.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
bringiton
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:06 am

Quoting TommyBP251b (Thread starter):
Will Boeing build the passenger version if the number of 24 orders stays like now?

Yes ! The replacement cycle for the 744's is still 12-24 months off . Also some airlines like BA are currently looking at it and will make a fleet descision later this year.

Quoting TommyBP251b (Thread starter):
When will they decide, if they will build it?

They have allready decided it when the launched the program .

Quoting TommyBP251b (Thread starter):
Won't the losses not be high, with only building 24+63 planes?

The last time i checked the 748 was still being marketed , it would be insane to expect boeing not to sell even a single 748I or 748F over and above what it has sold so far . The market according to boeing is 500-700 aircrafts over 20 years and boeing should pick some orders . Even if they get 30% of the market ( not being unreasonable) they would secure in access of 200 orders , which is quite good considering that the development cost for the aircraft varient is estimated to be 1/4 - 1/5 of the A380

Quoting TommyBP251b (Thread starter):
Should they not better concentrate on the 748F?

What do you mean better concentrate? Other then delivery slots i dont see any pressure which the I puts on the F .

Quoting TommyBP251b (Thread starter):
Which version they will build first? 748i or 748F?

The F , i beleive the rollout for the F would be late next year
 
DALCE
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:10 am

LH will not accept it when Boeing just says : "sorry guys, we decided to forget about the 748i, as we cannot make money with it"
Signing a contract means that both parties have made a commitment, so normally no way back for both.

Also other airlines will commit for the 748i, I see some chinese carriers ordering and perhaps JL or AI.
Also BA will have a go I think, as I see them operating both 380's and 748's at one time.

Just my € 0.02.....

Brgds,
DALCE
flown: F50,F70,CR1,CR2,CR9,E75,143,AR8,AR1,733,735,736,73G,738,753,744,77W,788,319,320,321,333,AB6.
 
whales
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:13 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 1):
I dont think BA will, and I dont think CX will either, but I can totally see Air China, China Airlines, and maybe Saudi getting some.

Hi I am new to all of this, if you dont see BA ordering the748i what do you think they will order? I spoke to a BA pilot crew on 21/06, and they tended to think it would go witn a boeing order.
 
JoFMO
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:13 am

LH and Boeing are both in a comfortable situations. If one side gets a problem with the current arrangement for what ever reason, both would not complain too much if the order is transformed into a freighter.

If if Boeing doe nhot get any new orders for the 747i in the next time they might want to abandon the passenger version and LH if becomes concerned to be the only operator of the 747, they still need a replacement for their LHCargo MD11's.

Quiet comfortable situation for both if you ask me. Nobody has too much to loose.
 
EI321
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:14 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 1):
The answer is - the 748 programme has already broken even in terms of RoI

Thats an assumption! I have absolutely no doubt that the programme as a whole will eventually, but I have a doubt that it has already. Its costing $4b.

Will the LH 748i be built? YES. However I do believe that if more orders are not achieved for the passenger, there is a chance that it will be produced as a 748F base with the interior and windows of the 744. It depends on what the order book looks like 12 months from now (post Farnborough 08), IMO.

Chris, I also think Cathy are a candidate.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:15 am

Even if no further 748i's get sold Boeing will build it. I would be very surprised if that is the case, but plenty of 748F's will be sold, so overall the program will make money. The additional cost of the 748i over the 748F is not all that much; I doubt that 24 frames will pay for t (especially with launch discounts) but it won't be far from it. There is no plane on the horizon that will do what the 748F will do, so unless Y3 obsoletes it it will continue to sell for years to come.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
DAYflyer
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:15 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 1):
The answer is - the 748 programme has already broken even in terms of RoI, so the 748I will be built, as LH are a blue-chip major and have passed over deposits.

I wouldnt worry - the Intercontinental passenger type will probably get more orders from somewhere. I dont think BA will, and I dont think CX will either, but I can totally see Air China, China Airlines, and maybe Saudi getting some

This is pretty much about how I see it. I dont think there is going to be a huge amount of orders for either the A-380 or 748.
One Nation Under God
 
deltadc9
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:19 am

Quoting TommyBP251b (Thread starter):
Won't the losses not be high, with only building 24+63 planes?

For Airbus yes, that about 100 380s they didn't sell....

 Wink

For Boeing, no, the 747 has been making 10-20 margin per plane since Nixon was POTUS. The 748 project rode on the tailcoats of the 787 and previous 747 next gen R&D and used a small percentage of engineering resources compared to an all new plane project (hundreds instead of thousands of engineers)
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
davescj
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:20 am

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 2):
Also some airlines like BA are currently looking at it and will make a fleet descision later this year.



Quoting DALCE (Reply 3):
Also BA will have a go I think, as I see them operating both 380's and 748's at one time.

I think DALCE is correct, and it will be a mixed fleet. Some places BA currently flies simply won't make sense for a A380, such as PHX -- currently a 744....as well as other US destinations etc.
Can I have a mojito on this flight?
 
bigjku
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:25 am

The program will make a bit of money, the 748I part that is as the 748F will do very well, and it has forced Airbus to have to compete on price in the A380 catagory. While the planes are not directly competitive in terms of seat count the 748 will have the effect of reducing the margins on the A380 which was already a wounded whale to begin with.

It ought to make Boeing a little money and ensure that the A380 never makes Airbus a dime.
 
JoFMO
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:34 am

The question is more if LH is willing to be the sole operator of an airplane that nobody else operates. I am fairly sure that they have a clause with Boeing that allows them to change the order into freighters at a certain point in time if nobody else orders the i-version. And Boeing would not be too unhappy in that case.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:39 am

Quoting JoFMO (Reply 12):
The question is more if LH is willing to be the sole operator of an airplane that nobody else operates. I am fairly sure that they have a clause with Boeing that allows them to change the order into freighters at a certain point in time if nobody else orders the i-version.

I would doubt that LH cares as long as Boeing supports it, which they will. There really is not that much on the 748i that is unique; all functional parts will be found on the 748F, of which there will be plenty. What difference does it make to LH as long as they can get whatever they need?
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
Flighty
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:44 am

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 11):
It ought to make Boeing a little money and ensure that the A380 never makes Airbus a dime.

Yup.

It is hard to understand the relations between the 773ER, 748i and A380. In the period 2008-2017, these are your options.

Which is most profitable? It's a matter of loads too big for the 773ER to handle. Do you have such a load? Usually not. Usually the 773ER is best. The A380 will take the major prestige routes.

What to do now that the 747 has lost its crown as the most luxurious jet?

What's left is heavy loads too big for the 773ER. The problem is, the added profit potential of the 748i over the 773ER is slim. Those extra ~80 coach seats give useful but not peak revenue. Meanwhile, the 748 burns more fuel and maintenance every single day, eating through at least 40 of those seats in revenue.

So really, the 748i may find its niche by living in dual 748F / 748i fleets. Airlines with on site 748F operations may find the 748i to be an easy addition, a great one for high traffic, low glamour flying... like NW for example.

[Edited 2007-06-26 17:45:24]
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:50 am

AI and PK i can see with a VLA - tossed coin whether its A388 or 748I.

CX i just dont see it - lots of reasons.

BA i've been saying for years - dont see the 748I in their future.

ANZ - possible. Definitely possible, but I suspect their 77W will be as large as they are going to get, preferring to increase frequencies on routes where they are making profits.

QF - no chance.

SQ - again, no chance.

AF - Unlikely given the A388 order increases and the numbers of 77Ws they have now.

EK - nope, no way.

QR - nope - very unlikely.

EY - dont think so.

AC - nope - 77W is as big as they need for the foreseeable.

CI - Likely at some stage. They are my hot tip.

CA - Ditto CI - they are bound to order more large capacity w/b's at some stage, and I think they will go Boeing. Just a hunch, but they may feel 748I is a safer jump. The Chinese carriers are where it is going to be at for VLAs in the next ten years and I can totally see 748I doing ok against the A388 here.

JL - not likely anytime soon, but they may order the 748I some years down the road. Cant see them going A388.

NH - No - 77W is as large as they need.

SA)">UA - could certainly use them trans-Pac - I'd say they are quite likely.

SA)">NW - ditto SA)">UA.

SA)">DL - Zero chance.

SA)">AA - Almost zero chance.

SA)">CO - Almost zero chance.

TG - Ordered the A388 - 748 out of the picture I would say.

MH - same as TG.

SA - I see them going A388 at some stage.

UL, TK, KL, JJ, PR - Too much plane for them year round to justify a small subfleet, but they have routes that would work well with a 748I most of the time, but not year round.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
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SEPilot
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:57 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 15):
BA i've been saying for years - dont see the 748I in their future.

You must have quite a prophetic gift if you've been saying no 748i for years, at it has only been an option for less than one.
 Big grin
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:59 am

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 11):
It ought to make Boeing a little money and ensure that the A380 never makes Airbus a dime.

Airbus ensured that quite well themselves. You are giving the 748I more credit than it deserves.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 14):
In the period 2008-2017, these are your options.

Unless you are assuming all Airbus projects are automatically 2 years late, the A350-1000 will be available in the period 2015-2017.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 14):
The problem is, the added profit potential of the 748i over the 773ER is slim. Those extra ~80 coach seats give useful but not peak revenue. Meanwhile, the 748 burns more fuel and maintenance every single day, eating through at least 40 of those seats in revenue.

The CASM of the 748I (uppercase 'I', as it's not a BMW) will be significantly lower than the 773ER. You seem to be implying otherwise.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 13):
There really is not that much on the 748i that is unique; all functional parts will be found on the 748F, of which there will be plenty.

There is that minor matter of the cabin furnishings and certification thereof.
 
EI321
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 1:00 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 16):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 15):
BA i've been saying for years - dont see the 748I in their future.

You must have quite a prophetic gift if you've been saying no 748i for years, at it has only been an option for less than one.

She was launched officiallly in 2005. Although I see your point.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 15):
CX i just dont see it - lots of reasons.

Do you think they would consider the A380?
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 1:06 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 16):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 15):
BA i've been saying for years - dont see the 748I in their future.

You must have quite a prophetic gift if you've been saying no 748i for years, at it has only been an option for less than one

I was the guy who said the 748 will never be launched the day before they actually launched it, if you remember.

I meant by the above though, that BA will order the A388 - thats what i've saying for years. Not saying its the right move, but i am fairly certain they will do it.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
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SEPilot
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 1:09 am

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 17):
There is that minor matter of the cabin furnishings and certification thereof.

But as far as LH is concerned all they care about is parts; I'm sure most of the parts will be common with other planes. The certification is Boeing's problem and they will take care of that.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
bigjku
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 1:10 am

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 17):
Airbus ensured that quite well themselves. You are giving the 748I more credit than it deserves.

While I agree to a point it was possible for a while that after they got the problems worked out they could have sold newer frames for a decent margin and possibly saved something in the end. I doubt it but it could have been possible. The 748 killed any chance of a freighter market, however small it would have been for the A380, and it will bring down margins on any future sales.
 
LXA340
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 1:12 am

I am also pretty sure that at least one US airline will purchase B748's obviously it would be NW or United even maybe both of them but let's see.
 
Flighty
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 1:15 am

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 17):

The CASM of the 748I (uppercase 'I', as it's not a BMW) will be significantly lower than the 773ER. You seem to be implying otherwise.

Not at all, the CASM really doesn't matter. Low CASM carriers/operations lose money all the time. What matters is trip costs versus the revenue you can bring in. The 773ER brings in almost as much revenue, some days 100% as much as a 747, while costing less. Typically, the 773ER is more profitable unless you really horribly need more seats.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 17):
Unless you are assuming all Airbus projects are automatically 2 years late, the A350-1000 will be available in the period 2015-2017.

Hmm, you are right. The A350-1000 is definitely hurting the case for the 748-I as well.
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 1:21 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 18):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 15):
CX i just dont see it - lots of reasons.

Do you think they would consider the A380?

Subfleet of ten or twelve - yes I do.

If you look at the routes that CX would use them on, and I'm thinking LAX, LHR, and maybe FRA as well here, then if you go daily on all three routes with one A388 (keeping the other departures 744/77W for the time being) then you've got probably nine airframes right there. Factor in one as a spare, and probably two more for high-density shuttle work elsewhere on the network for the routes to MNL, BKK etc where the very high density 773As are used to, and I think you can justify a worthwhile subfleet.

This only identifies the probable need for VLA equipment at CX and does not state why they will go A388 over 748I. Thats a different argument.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
baron95
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 1:24 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 1):
The answer is - the 748 programme has already broken even in terms of RoI, so the 748I will be built,

I'm going to guess that the margins on the BBJs are $60M a piece (roughly) 20% of list and the margins on the LHs are about $15M a piece (roughly 5% of list - remember that LH has launch discounts and is a blue chip carrier). So that puts the margins on the Is as $360M. My guess is that Boeing probably will spend 2 or 3 times that for the I variant above and beyond the investment on the baseline F. So they probably need to sell 2x to 3x more Is to break even on that variant.

The margins on the F are better, since the order is to more carriers and Fs have historically have better margins. If we assume $50M margins for each F, that is $3.15B margins for the baseline F as we stand. That is probably close to covering costs.

Now Boeing needs to show a return on their $4B or so investment. Say 15% RII, else it would be better to smple invest the money in securities.

So I think this program still has a bit to go, perhaps another 60-80 frames before it is proven a good investment. I'd venture that Boeing will get those additional 60-80 frames between now and EIS in 2009. After that, any orders would be a bonus.

[Edited 2007-06-26 18:26:55]
Killer Fleet: E190, 737-900ER, 777-300ER
 
EI321
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 1:27 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 23):
Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 17):
Unless you are assuming all Airbus projects are automatically 2 years late, the A350-1000 will be available in the period 2015-2017.

Hmm, you are right. The A350-1000 is definitely hurting the case for the 748-I as well.

hmmm never thought of that

Quoting Flighty (Reply 23):
Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 17):

The CASM of the 748I (uppercase 'I', as it's not a BMW) will be significantly lower than the 773ER. You seem to be implying otherwise.

Not at all, the CASM really doesn't matter.

It does. Over six hundred 787 sales already!
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 1:33 am

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 25):
So I think this program still has a bit to go, perhaps another 60-80 frames before it is proven a good investment. I'd venture that Boeing will get those additional 60-80 frames between now and EIS in 2009. After that, any orders would be a bonus.

Even if what you say is true, it does not take into account the intangible worth of potentially lucrative VLA airframe sales going to Airbus, and Airbus' pricing for the A380 reflecting the fact that there is no meaningful alternative. Even if Boeing do make a small loss on 748 (and they wont) the losses sustained by Airbus will be much, much larger if you could accurately put a dollar value on them, which would be difficult.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 1:37 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 26):
The A350-1000 is definitely hurting the case for the 748-I as well.

We dont know enough about this monster to really be able to say that at the moment. I would want more concrete info about the plane before making comments like that. Having said that, even the POSSIBILITY of such a plane may still affect fleet planning managers in long-term thinking.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
AirbusA6
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 1:51 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 20):
But as far as LH is concerned all they care about is parts; I'm sure most of the parts will be common with other planes. The certification is Boeing's problem and they will take care of that.

I'm sure though that LH won't want to have an orphan fleet. If they were the only major 748i user, that would have an adverse affect on resale value and general saleability...

The fact that the 748i and 748f are now the same length must reduce development costs, and make a later freighter conversion of the 748i easier?
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EI321
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:03 am

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 29):
I'm sure though that LH won't want to have an orphan fleet. If they were the only major 748i user, that would have an adverse affect on resale value and general saleability...

Could they be converted as part of the existing BCF programme?
 
davidkunzVIE
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:09 am

LH has a history of bringing airplanes to life that no one believed in. *cough737coughcough*.
DH3 DH4 CR1 CR2 CR7 CR9 F70 732 733 734 73G 738 752 762 763 772 742 743 319 320 321 333 343
 
bmacleod
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:25 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 19):
I meant by the above though, that BA will order the A388 - thats what i've saying for years.

So BA will just follow Richard Branson's Virgin order? Given BA's rock solid history with Boeing I'll say the 748 is still a safer bet.  twocents 
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
columba
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:27 am

Quoting DavidkunzVIE (Reply 31):
LH has a history of bringing airplanes to life that no one believed in. *cough737coughcough*.

How about the FD728 and the 757-300 for their subsidiary Condor.............
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
parapente
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:29 am

Many have said that it will not cost much additional $$$ to create the "I" from the "F". Is that true? I do not know the answer but it strikes me that there is indeed alot of work involved.

No Lh will not take an orphan 20 aircraft. Who ever has?

Yes they would convert to "F's". However that is suggesting that there will be no more orders. It is very silent out there at present but this could well change (the cycle point). The only issue is when is the "point of no return" reached. By creating 2 identical structures thay do not have to do any work on the "i" at all for the moment.But there must come a point. Perhaps at the end of this year/beginning of next. If no orders are gleaned by then confidence in the aircraft will have been lost IMHO and the plug will be pulled. Lh will have a clause in to cover this as they will need to buy extra alternative aircraft from airbus. Does anyone know if they have a ballancing set of "options" in A380's and A340-600's as a fall back?

But I agree with most. It is likley that they can/will find another 40-60 "i's".As many have pointed out ,the longer it is out there the less profut Airbus will make on the A380. Clearly Boeing are confident enough to "go public" on the possibilities of a BWB Freighter that (to me) does suggest that they do see more short term sales for the "F" in any event.
 
davidkunzVIE
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:36 am

Quoting Columba (Reply 33):
the 757-300 for their subsidiary Condor.............

It's flying.

Quoting Columba (Reply 33):
How about the FD728

Well,...
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dl767captain
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:38 am

personally i think we need to wait a while and see if any other airlines order the plane, the EIS is 2010 so we still have some time because other airlines are waiting to order new fleets so i think it is too early to cancel the 748i
 
cygnuschicago
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:43 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 1):
the 748 programme has already broken even in terms of RoI

How many frames was the breakeven point?
If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
 
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SEPilot
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:49 am

Quoting Parapente (Reply 34):
No Lh will not take an orphan 20 aircraft. Who ever has?

There has never been the opportunity, as no other manufacturer has been in the position of being able to launch an airliner with only one customer and no others on the brink. Since this is the first airliner EVER to be a derivative of a freighter it is a unique situation, and the limited number of airlines interested could well be part of the reason why Boeing went with the same length as the freighter, which reduced the cost of the passenger version. Resale is not an issue; when LH decides to get rid of them they'll have no problem; they will be converted to freighters.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
columba
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:54 am

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 36):
personally i think we need to wait a while and see if any other airlines order the plane, the EIS is 2010 so we still have some time because other airlines are waiting to order new fleets so i think it is too early to cancel the 748i

 checkmark  There are other airlines in the market for the 747-8I it is tooearly to write the 747-8I off just yet
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
BoomBoom
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 3:15 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 9):
For Boeing, no, the 747 has been making 10-20 margin per plane since Nixon

And with Boeing owning the VLA freighter market until at least 2014, and more likely forever, they can continue to charge top dollar until the last 748F is built.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
tommybp251b
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 3:24 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 1):
Oh boy - better get your flamesuit on - the Cheerleaders are going to slaughter you. Wink

Wasn't so bad yet!

I just have the impression the A380 gets more bashed, than any other aircraft, no wait, I forgot A340-300.

I just have the impression, that airlines don't like to buy again a 747. There are so many other options now in contrast to the time the 747-100/-200/-300/-400 where built and introduced to service. Now airlines can choose between:

A380
A350
A340
A330

B777
B787

The planes weren't even available when the 747-400 came to the market. DC-10 was an oldie than and the MD-11 was the only other possibility concerning the size.

Any thoughts on this?

Best Regards. Tom
Tom from Cologne
 
EI321
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 3:46 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 38):
Quoting Parapente (Reply 34):
No Lh will not take an orphan 20 aircraft. Who ever has?

There has never been the opportunity, as no other manufacturer has been in the position of being able to launch an airliner with only one customer and no others on the brink.

As far as I know there were no customers for the passenger version at launch. As for the orphan question, we could argue that the 767-400 case is comparable.

Quoting TommyBP251b (Reply 41):
The planes weren't even available when the 747-400 came to the market. DC-10 was an oldie than and the MD-11 was the only other possibility concerning the size.

Actually the A340-300 was launched in 1987
 
deltadc9
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 3:49 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 14):
What to do now that the 747 has lost its crown as the most luxurious jet?

Thats rather subjective isnt it? Not the biggest anymore, but the front section of the main deck on the 747 is hard to beat, impossible IMO.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
BoomBoom
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 3:58 am

Quoting TommyBP251b (Reply 41):
Any thoughts on this?

The 747 has outsold the A380 since 2000 when the 380 was launched.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 3:58 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 23):
Hmm, you are right. The A350-1000 is definitely hurting the case for the 748-I as well.

I'll do you one better, the A350-1000 is definitely hurting the case for the A380-800.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 28):
We dont know enough about this monster to really be able to say that at the moment.

We certainly do know enough about the A350-1000 to say that it will burn considerably less fuel per passenger mile than the A380-800 or the 747-8I.

Quoting Parapente (Reply 34):
By creating 2 identical structures thay do not have to do any work on the "i" at all for the moment.

The fuselage of the 748I is significantly different from the 748F. The fuselage plugs are different lengths and so is the hump. It's not like you can take a 748F and just add interior furnishings; there are quite a few structural design details that will be particular to the 748I.

Quoting Columba (Reply 39):
it is tooearly to write the 747-8I off just yet

 checkmark  that I can agree with. Although the 748I could use another order right about now...
 
columba
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 4:10 am

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 45):
that I can agree with. Although the 748I could use another order right about now...

Well, it took a while for the 787 to get the first orders, it took another while for the A350 and many people here was writing them off back then.
But the 787 has become a huge sales success, the first big orders for the A350 are coming in and very likely others will follow soon. The thing with the 747-8 and A380 is that not all airlines have a use for such an aircraft while much more have the need for 787 or A350 sized plane so it will necessarily take more time to get more orders for the A380 or 747-8I then the A350 or 787.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 4:14 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 44):
The 747 has outsold the A380 since 2000 when the 380 was launched.

That is a rather selective reading of the tea leaves. In the same spirit of abusive statistics, the 748 Intercontinental has never cost the A388 an order. So your point eludes me.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 4:30 am

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 47):
the 748 Intercontinental has never cost the A388 an order. So your point eludes me.

Never said that it did. I was simply responding to this post.

Quoting TommyBP251b (Reply 41):
I just have the impression, that airlines don't like to buy again a 747.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
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glideslope
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RE: LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?

Wed Jun 27, 2007 6:39 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 8):
This is pretty much about how I see it. I dont think there is going to be a huge amount of orders for either the A-380 or 748.

Yup. Let's hope the 350 sells. Boeing needs the competition.  checkmark 
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