jimyvr
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 6:58 am

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...ory/0,20867,21984926-23349,00.html

QANTAS is eyeing to set up a fleet management company to supply aircrafts to QANTAS Group, including QANTAS, QANTASLINK, jetStar, jetStar Asia, and Pacific Airlines of Vietnam.

This comes the eve of a decision of an order up to 70 new aircrafts - 20 more 787s and 50 NEW narrow-body planes.

QANTAS is to receive 1st of 20 A380 it has on order in 2008. The first of 45 787 on orders will also arrive from August 2008 at the rate of 1 per month.

[Edited 2007-06-28 23:59:31]
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EA772LR
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 7:01 am

787 orders before delivery here we come!!  yes 
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Stitch
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 7:35 am

I know QF operates 737NGS at the moment, are they operating A320 family planes?

I expect this order will go 737, anyway, due to availability.
 
FLYGUY767
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 7:46 am

Quoting Jimyvr (Thread starter):
This comes the eve of a decision of an order up to 70 new aircrafts - 20 more 787s and 50 NEW narrow-body planes

FYI

The title of the thread said 70 787!

-JD
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OceansWorld
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 7:57 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
are they operating A320 family planes?

Not QF but their subsidiary JQ yes.

Jetstar fleet

Qantas fleet
 
aminobwana
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 8:01 am

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 3):
FYI

The title of the thread said 70 787!

The title is obviously mistaken. The article states 20 B787 + 50 NB

Could this be the B7810ER launch order ??

aminobwana
 
jimyvr
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 8:03 am

Title is not mistaken when you have limit to words.

70 787 and NB (Narrowbodies)

It's like saying QANTAS order 70 787+320. Something wrong with it?

[Edited 2007-06-29 01:04:59]
1000 - 01MAR07 | http://airlineroute.blogspot.com/
 
sunrisevalley
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 9:01 am

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 5):
Could this be the B7810ER launch order ??

More likely a 787-8 HGW as discussed on this site some months ago. Without going back and checking, something like a 787-9 MTOW ( 542000 lb +-) in the size of the 787-8. Rumor was at the time that CFO Gregg had gone to Seattle to make a pitch for the variant.
 
manni
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 9:06 am

Quoting Jimyvr (Thread starter):
This comes the eve of a decision of an order up to 70 new aircrafts - 20 more 787s and 50 NEW narrow-body planes.

It was rumoured that Jetstar would place a huge order in Paris. That didn't happen. Perhaps these 50 narrowbodies are for Jetstar.
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Stitch
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 9:12 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 8):
It was rumoured that Jetstar would place a huge order in Paris. That didn't happen. Perhaps these 50 narrowbodies are for Jetstar.

Well July 8th would be a fine time to announce them if they're 737NGs, along with the 20 additional 787s, which I assume will be option conversions?
 
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zeke
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 9:30 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 8):
It was rumoured that Jetstar would place a huge order in Paris. That didn't happen. Perhaps these 50 narrowbodies are for Jetstar

Yeah, I heard the same, and put it in the predictions thread !!!
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eraugrad02
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 9:49 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 8):
It was rumoured that Jetstar would place a huge order in Paris. That didn't happen. Perhaps these 50 narrowbodies are for Jetstar.

Maybe they will be for 737-900ER. What are your guesses for the narrowbody model?
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manni
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 9:56 am

Quoting ERAUgrad02 (Reply 11):
What are your guesses for the narrowbody model?

If they are for Jetstar, then it's the A320. If they are for QF it will be 737s.
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zeke
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 9:59 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 12):

If they are for Jetstar, then it's the A320.

I would refine that by saying 320 series (i.e. not rule out 319/321).....
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
jupiter2
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 10:00 am

I will go for 30 A320/321's for Jetstar and 20 739's for QF.

For the extra 787's, they will be split between QF and JQ.

If QF do go for 787-8's they will most likely be their first ones and would be a HGW variant. I believe that all other 787-8's that are already on order will be for JQ and that QF will only be getting 787-9's in the initial order. Have also heard that JQ will be getting 15 aircraft instead of the original 12.

RL
 
QFYMML
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 10:04 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 9):
Well July 8th would be a fine time to announce them if they're 737NGs, along with the 20 additional 787s, which I assume will be option conversions?

I will bet my left one that A320's will get given the nod for the narrow body order.
Qantas mainline is slowly farming off routes to JQ who operate the A320. JetStar Asia operates A320's also & I would assume any new aircraft for the Vietnam offshoot would be from the same family.
I can't see any additional 737's being required in these numbers for mainline alone, and don't see the other group members operating a mixed fleet.
Perhaps a few 738's to replace the last of the 734's....a few for Jetconnect??
Another possibility I guess, would be Embraers for Qantaslink?

I'd go for options conversions on the 787's too. No 787-10 launch, and a mix of 787-8's & -9's.

Quoting Manni (Reply 8):
It was rumoured that Jetstar would place a huge order in Paris. That didn't happen. Perhaps these 50 narrowbodies are for Jetstar.

I never heard that one at all - I wasn't expecting any QF Group orders at Paris. What was the rumoured order?

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anstar
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 10:14 am

Quoting QFYMML (Reply 15):
Perhaps a few 738's to replace the last of the 734's....a few for Jetconnect??

There are about 20 odd 734's on the fleet still, so I would expect them to be repalced as part of this upcoming order.
 
SkyyMaster
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 10:16 am

Considering Qantas just announced Jetstar was going to start operating on the SYD-BNE route in anticipation of the arrival of Tiger, I also am betting the single aisle order will be for 320's. Maybe a few 737's for QF, but it sounds as if they are going to turn more and more domestic routes over to Jetstar. Could we possibly see a return to the days when QF was strictly an international carrier w/Jetstar as it's domestic division and LCC international operator?
 
manni
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 10:17 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 13):
I would refine that by saying 320 series (i.e. not rule out 319/321).....

A321s would be nice.

Quoting QFYMML (Reply 15):
I wasn't expecting any QF Group orders at Paris. What was the rumoured order?

A320s and possibly some A330s. I guess they've waited to long to get their hands on early delivery positions for A330s now.
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Ken777
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 10:20 am

Quoting SkyyMaster (Reply 17):
Could we possibly see a return to the days when QF was strictly an international carrier w/Jetstar as it's domestic division and LCC international operator?

That will be a problem for the corporate market where QF has contracts with a lot of major companies - and these pax are flying up front. If QF moves domestic to a LCC base then these major customers are going to be calling for significantly more discounts.
 
zvezda
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 10:30 am

It would be interesting if Boeing were to launch a 787-8ER before the 787-10. Perhaps both will be launched at the roll out.

A 787-8ER could be made without developing any new parts just by combining parts from the 787-8 and 787-9. However, for such a 787-8ER to be useful to QF for SYD/MEL-LHR, about 25,000 lbs of additional fuel capacity would be required.
 
pilotdude09
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 10:31 am

Quoting SkyyMaster (Reply 17):
Could we possibly see a return to the days when QF was strictly an international carrier w/Jetstar as it's domestic division and LCC international operator?

Nup not all routes, too much money made on some routes. Alot of mining companys also have several year contracts with Qantas and Qantas only. They would take alot of trouble to have to change them to JQ.

I dont think we will ever see QF totally dissolve its domestic routes.

As it says in the Article: Qantas will focus on premium routes and JQ on Lesiure routes.

[Edited 2007-06-29 03:34:02]
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jbernie
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 10:48 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 19):
Quoting SkyyMaster (Reply 17):
Could we possibly see a return to the days when QF was strictly an international carrier w/Jetstar as it's domestic division and LCC international operator?

That will be a problem for the corporate market where QF has contracts with a lot of major companies - and these pax are flying up front. If QF moves domestic to a LCC base then these major customers are going to be calling for significantly more discounts.

I would expect that any flight on any route that has a heavy volume of business flyers (aka those nice FFs) will be QF, but some of the flights during the day that are more leasure travellers can be pushed over to JQ. ie SYD-MEL early morning & evening will be QF, and the flights during the day will be split between the two. Certainly it will be interesting to see how they balance the two on these types of routes.

I was checking some domestic flights for my visit in September, the unrestricted fares for QF were pretty much to the point where you could possibly make at least 2 flight reservations (to cover possible dept times) on JQ in each direction and it would still cost less than an unresticted QF flight. No idea on the rules for tickets not used and all. But if you aren't into the FF points with QF there are possibly some interesting options.

As to the breakdown of the order, narrow body break down will depend on which company gets the planes, though QF does appear to have some older 737 that could be replaced. The split on the 787s again depends on who, though as noted already, i was also under the impression that JQ was getitng the -8s and QF the -9s, and of course there is that whole Extended Super Long Range blah blah version that QF dreams of getting. Too many possibilities to speculate.

As to the Fleet Management company, not quite sure on that one. would this be a way to get the QF balance sheet improved by it not being weighed down with actual ownership of aircraft? I don't know if they would be wanting to compete against the other Leasee's in providing aircraft to non QF/JQ related airlines. So I can only think of it being a way to improve the balance sheet.

Has anyone seen any numbers floating around about if QF didn't "own" the aircraft whether the share price or market cap would increase by some significant amount?
 
QFYMML
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 11:03 am

Quoting ANstar (Reply 16):
There are about 20 odd 734's on the fleet still, so I would expect them to be repalced as part of this upcoming order.

I know a QF FA who would love for this to be the case - one 734 in particular  Smile
Do you know if they have been/are being replaced 1:1 by the 738's?
Curious to know if every 734 that leaves the mainline fleet is replaced by a 738, or, if they flew routes now operated by JQ and replacement a/c wasn't required (for mainline).
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monteycarlos
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 6:15 pm

What I find interesting about all this is the joint venture spin off. I am sure National Jet Systems and Eastern Airlines are wondering how this will impact them, being contracted to run services on behalf of Qantaslink.
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anstar
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Qantas To Order 70 planes including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 6:54 pm

Quoting Monteycarlos (Reply 24):
What I find interesting about all this is the joint venture spin off. I am sure National Jet Systems and Eastern Airlines are wondering how this will impact them, being contracted to run services on behalf of Qantaslink.

From what I understood, it was only aircraft that would be supplied. Not crews.
 
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EK413
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 11:14 pm

Quoting Pilotdude09 (Reply 21):
Nup not all routes, too much money made on some routes. Alot of mining companys also have several year contracts with Qantas and Qantas only. They would take alot of trouble to have to change them to JQ.

BHP comes to mind... Just to mention one of them...That alone is a biggy  Wink

EK413
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pilotdude09
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 11:30 pm

Quoting EK413 (Reply 26):
BHP comes to mind... Just to mention one of them...That alone is a biggy

mmhhmm very big contract along with Rio Tinto and Woodside Gas, one of my best friends has just got a job in the Contract office at Wooside, so i can get all the info regarding QF and stuff from her as well  Smile
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aminobwana
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Fri Jun 29, 2007 11:49 pm

Quoting SunriseValley (Reply 7):
Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 5):
Could this be the B7810ER launch order ??

More likely a 787-8 HGW as discussed on this site some months ago. Without going back and checking, something like a 787-9 MTOW ( 542000 lb +-) in the size of the 787-8. Rumor was at the time that CFO Gregg had gone to Seattle to make a pitch for the variant.



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 20):
It would be interesting if Boeing were to launch a 787-8ER before the 787-10. Perhaps both will be launched at the roll out.

A 787-8ER could be made without developing any new parts just by combining parts from the 787-8 and 787-9. However, for such a 787-8ER to be useful to QF for SYD/MEL-LHR, about 25,000 lbs of additional fuel capacity would be required.

Which would be the range with full passenger load of such 788ER or 788HGW ??

Another question: Comparing the operating costs (ballpark!) per seat at a range of about 10,000 Km: Can it be said that B788 or B789 (not ER!) have the same, lower or higher as the already not state-of-the-art A380 ??

Quoting Jimyvr (Reply 6):
It's like saying QANTAS order 70 787+320. Something wrong with it?

I correct myself: Not mistaken, but not clear, as in the question of Flyguy767 and my statement showed. Myself also incur often in such "lapsus linguae"  Smile
Anyway, it is 20 787 and 50 NG !!

aminobwana
 
Maersk737
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Sat Jun 30, 2007 12:23 am

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 28):
Another question: Comparing the operating costs (ballpark!) per seat at a range of about 10,000 Km: Can it be said that B788 or B789 (not ER!) have the same, lower or higher as the already not state-of-the-art A380 ??

Yes it can  Wink

Cheers

Peter
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sunrisevalley
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Sat Jun 30, 2007 1:41 am

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 28):
Which would be the range with full passenger load of such 788ER or 788HGW ??

If it is to work for QF it needs an ESAD of 10000nm. It has never been clear what percentage of max. payload QF consider necessary. I can't believe that they would settle for less than max passenger load.
 
cygnuschicago
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Sat Jun 30, 2007 2:04 am

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 28):
as the already not state-of-the-art A380 ??

Talk about a loaded question!
If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
 
columba
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Sat Jun 30, 2007 2:18 am

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 28):
higher as the already not state-of-the-art A380 ??

Why should the A380 not be "state of the art" ? Because it is not fully composite ? I doubt that either Boeing or Airbus could build an aircraft that big completely out of composites right now.
Because of the engines ? They are the newest available.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
aminobwana
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Sat Jun 30, 2007 2:51 am

Quoting Columba (Reply 33):
Why should the A380 not be "state of the art" ? Because it is not fully composite ? I doubt that either Boeing or Airbus could build an aircraft that big completely out of composites right now.
Because of the engines ? They are the newest available.

You are taking my remark out of context. You may be right that a plane of the size of the A380 presently cannot be made
of 50% composite.

But when I ask for a comparison of the ~1998-2000 basic design A380 with the 2003-2004 basic design B787, a customer who will receive such aircrafts lets say in 2010 will get a a 4-5 year a older design with the A380, referred to all its components and of course, without the advantage of the 50% composite. This means, less state-of-the-art or simply, not state-of-the art.
Anyway, independently of this remark, lets see the comparison of the operating costs per seat, where the much larger capacity of the A380 is its advantage, the less advanced technology (for whichever reasons) its drawback.

aminobwana
 
aminobwana
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Sat Jun 30, 2007 3:21 am

Quoting SunriseValley (Reply 30):
If it is to work for QF it needs an ESAD of 10000nm. It has never been clear what percentage of max. payload QF consider necessary. I can't believe that they would settle for less than max passenger load.

Thanks. In other words, aircrafts which can fly from Sydney to the UK (nominal 9,200nm) or to NY (nominal 8,600nm) non stop with 230-270 passengers, not allowing any chance to the HUB connection providers like EK, SQ, QR
 
zvezda
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Sat Jun 30, 2007 3:30 am

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 28):
Which would be the range with full passenger load of such 788ER or 788HGW ??

A 787-8ER with the MTOW of the 787-9 and an additional 25,000lbs fuel capacity would have a range of 10500nm.

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 28):
Comparing the operating costs (ballpark!) per seat at a range of about 10,000 Km: Can it be said that B788 or B789 (not ER!) have the same, lower or higher as the already not state-of-the-art A380 ??

The 787-8 and 787-9 will have higher CASM than the WhaleJet, though the 787-9 should be close. The 787-10 should have slightly lower CASM than the WhaleJet.
 
MD-90
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Sat Jun 30, 2007 4:09 am

Quoting Columba (Reply 33):
Why should the A380 not be "state of the art" ?

It's a little early to say that, but I think one could make a case for the 787 and A350XWB being state of the art while the A380 is not.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 36):
The 787-10 should have slightly lower CASM than the WhaleJet.

Talk about bad news for the A380.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Sat Jun 30, 2007 4:14 am

Quoting MD-90 (Reply 37):


Quoting Zvezda,reply=36:
The 787-10 should have slightly lower CASM than the WhaleJet.

Talk about bad news for the A380.

You think that is bad, wait until the A350-900 and (especially) A350-1000 take to the skies...
 
zvezda
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Sat Jun 30, 2007 4:41 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 38):
You think that is bad, wait until the A350-900 and (especially) A350-1000 take to the skies...

Indeed. The only time a larger aircraft with higher CASM can compete against a smaller aircraft with lower CASM is when the former has substantially better range. The A350-1000 is going to eat the WhaleJet's lunch, steal its milk money, and suck the marrow from its bones. The A350 is looking like it'll be the best selling Airbus after the A320 family. In the end, Airbus will be better off for it.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Sat Jun 30, 2007 7:03 am

Quoting Columba (Reply 33):
Because of the engines ? They are the newest available.

The engines are not state of the art.
The GP7200 lacks contra rotation. That alone is leaving 3% fuel burn at the gate.
The Trent 900 is a good design... But RR didn't put all of the ready tricks into it.

Both engines were conservative (low engineering cost) designs. Why? The market wasn't estimated to be big enough to put the extra $200mil+ a "state of the art" effort would have entailed. It was a business decision. GE, Pratt, and RR all had technology at the appropriate TRL level to add to their A380 engines. e.g., Pratt did the F119/F135 with contra rotation and a more advanced compressor than the GP7200. RR didn't put in their lovely pre-diffuser that would have cut fuel burn another 1/2%. Why? Too costly. Not in manufacturing, but in engineering. I was shown a RR cross section pre-Trent 900 (paper engine) that blew my socks off. Some would not have been ready for the Trent 900, but much of it was already advanced enough (in time) for it.

So I argue neither of the A380 engines are truly "state of the art." Not from a fuel burn perspective.
Mostly, I cannot understand why RR didn't switch to the new aft bearing design... (it helped reroute turbine cooling in such a manner to get a free 1% drop in fuel burn, mostly by closing that large gap between the high and mid turbine). They didn't do it in the Trent 1000... I *know* the bearings have been run on test stands... so Lightsaber is confused.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 39):

Indeed. The only time a larger aircraft with higher CASM can compete against a smaller aircraft with lower CASM is when the former has substantially better range.

 checkmark  But I still have hope for the A389.  Wink

Lightsaber
"They did not know it was impossible, so they did it!" - Mark Twain
 
cygnuschicago
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Sat Jun 30, 2007 7:12 am

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 34):
But when I ask for a comparison of the ~1998-2000 basic design A380 with the 2003-2004 basic design B787, a customer who will receive such aircrafts lets say in 2010 will get a a 4-5 year a older design with the A380, referred to all its components and of course, without the advantage of the 50% composite. This means, less state-of-the-art or simply, not state-of-the art.

By that same reasoning, the 787 won't be state of the art in 2010. What a ridiculous argument!

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 39):
The A350 is looking like it'll be the best selling Airbus after the A320 family. In the end, Airbus will be better off for it.

I'm sceptical of this. I still don't think the A350 will sell 1,000 units. There's a real chance that when all is said and done the A330/340 will have sold more than the A350 in my opinion. Unfortunately, we're probably two decades away from knowing the answer.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 39):
The only time a larger aircraft with higher CASM can compete against a smaller aircraft with lower CASM is when the former has substantially better range.

And in a case of prisoner's dilemna into slot restricted airports.
And in cases where the slot fees, overflight fees, and labor costs are such that it makes sense to fly one large plane instead of two.
If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
 
zvezda
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Sat Jun 30, 2007 7:23 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 41):
I'm sceptical of this. I still don't think the A350 will sell 1,000 units. There's a real chance that when all is said and done the A330/340 will have sold more than the A350 in my opinion. Unfortunately, we're probably two decades away from knowing the answer.

I expect the A350 to sell at a rate of around 200 per year for the foreseeable future. If I'm anywhere close to correct, we won't need to wait twenty years to see A350 orders reach 1000. Consider that the way the 787 is selling, it will reach 1000 orders next year. I see no reason why the A350 shouldn't sell approximately as well as the 787 (within 30% or so).

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 41):
And in a case of prisoner's dilemna into slot restricted airports.

I don't buy the significance. Most LHR departures are single-aisle aircraft. NRT will soon have a second full-length runway and HND will soon have a fourth runway.

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 41):
And in cases where the slot fees, overflight fees, and labor costs are such that it makes sense to fly one large plane instead of two.

Those are part of CASM. The economics work out that the 787-10 and A350-1000 will be cheaper to operate per seat, including the factors above, than the WhaleJet. That's progress and we should all be happy about it.
 
aminobwana
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Sat Jun 30, 2007 10:08 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 36):
A 787-8ER with the MTOW of the 787-9 and an additional 25,000lbs fuel capacity would have a range of 10500nm.

So, it could fly with full passenger load (?) from Sydney to London, or Glasgow., as well as to LAX, Chicago, Toronto,

I assume that the CASM of the 788ER will be higher than the B789, as it must carry the additional 25,000 lbs fuel. So, the fuel consumption/pax probably will be higher as for a A380 flying to the UK with stop in DCX, but can it be said that this will be compensate by the additional fuel consumption by the Landing and starting in DCX, the longer flight tie, the DCX operation costs, etc. ?? By the way, the B787 flight time would be about 22 hours, but i assume this can be done by 2 flight crews (and not 3 ??

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 36):
The 787-8 and 787-9 will have higher CASM than the WhaleJet, though the 787-9 should be close. The 787-10 should have slightly lower CASM than the WhaleJet.



Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 41):
And in a case of prisoner's dilemma into slot restricted airports.
And in cases where the slot fees, overflight fees, and labor costs are such that it makes sense to fly one large plane instead of two.

Even if the B788 had a small higher CASM, this would be widely compensated by the higher frequency advantages. And there is no assurance that the A380 will occupy less slots and mean less airport costs then for the B787. If the A380 acts as trunk for a region, any passenger going to Sydney from Glasgow, or Edinburgh will have to fly first to London and deplane at a local flight slot, increasing the passenger load of LHR. And I am quite sure that the cost of a A380 slot will be far higher than for B787, due to the high investment of the Airport in gates and the operation problems of the Whale


Talk about bad news for the A380.[/quote]
This was the reason of my question. The B787, the A350 if and when it becomes available) and possibly the B747i in some intermediate cases will eat away the potential A380 market.


regards

aminobwana
 
aminobwana
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Sat Jun 30, 2007 10:11 am

Quoting MD-90 (Reply 37):
It's a little early to say that, but I think one could make a case for the 787 and A350XWB being state of the art while the A380 is not.

In layman language: the B787 is "more" state of the art, and that's the reason that a smaller aircraft with higher frequency can compete with a larger one

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 40):
The engines are not state of the art.



Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 41):
By that same reasoning, the 787 won't be state of the art in 2010. What a ridiculous argument!

Ridiculous ?? Why you use these adjectives ? State-of-the-art means the most advanced or modern on the market . For delivery 2010 as in my example, the A380 will not be such, but the B787 (If by the time both are ready for service !!  Wink ). You cannot buy something still not existing

aminobwana
 
aminobwana
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Sat Jun 30, 2007 10:17 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 42):
I expect the A350 to sell at a rate of around 200 per year for the foreseeable future. If I'm anywhere close to correct, we won't need to wait twenty years to see A350 orders reach 1000. Consider that the way the 787 is selling, it will reach 1000 orders next year. I see no reason why the A350 shouldn't sell approximately as well as the 787 (within 30% or so).

Zvezda, I am quite disagreeing. Realistically, I am assuming that when the A350 enters in service, IMO not before 2015, a more new Boeing will be (or soon be) on the horizon

The reason of the todays explosive sales of the B787 are between other:
1) No competition other than on paper. Not applicable for the A350 in 2015
2) The paradigm shift induced by its adaptation to the suddenly triplicated oil prices As this foreseably will not repeat itself, and the A350 will be no paradigm shift related to the B787, this would apply neither in 2015
3) The argument 2. is reinforced by the fact that since the B777 (and A330) inception, a lot a years ago, no new basic model appeared on the Long Range market

I would also expect (correct me if you think otherwise) that the new Y1 and A320NG will eat on the lower end a chunk of both the B787 and A350 markets., as well as eventually the Y3 on the other side

regards

aminobwana
 
zvezda
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Sat Jun 30, 2007 10:38 am

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 43):
So, it could fly with full passenger load (?) from Sydney to London, or Glasgow., as well as to LAX, Chicago, Toronto,

A 787-8ER could fly from anywhere to anywhere.

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 43):
I assume that the CASM of the 788ER will be higher than the B789, as it must carry the additional 25,000 lbs fuel.

Yes, the CASM would be considerably higher. The 25,000 lbs of fuel must not only be carried, but burned.

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 43):
So, the fuel consumption/pax probably will be higher as for a A380 flying to the UK with stop in DCX, but can it be said that this will be compensate by the additional fuel consumption by the Landing and starting in DCX, the longer flight tie, the DCX operation costs, etc. ??

I don't think so. Even with the landing fees at the stopping point, etc., it would probably still be quite a bit cheaper per passenger to operate a WhaleJet on the Kangeroo Route with a stop than a 787-8ER nonstop. This would be compensated for by dramatically higher RASM with the 787-8ER as nonstop service could be limited to full fares -- no discount fares in any class, no A, D, Z, Q, V, etc. fares, only F, J/C, Y. I would expect a 787-8ER to be fitted with roughly 150 seats. A configuration of 12F, 50C, 88Y (8 abreast) would seem reasonable.

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 43):
By the way, the B787 flight time would be about 22 hours, but i assume this can be done by 2 flight crews (and not 3 ??

I think at least 5 pilots would be needed: a pair for takeoff and landing plus three to rotate through the long uneventful middle stretch.

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 44):
You cannot buy something still not existing

You can contract to buy something that doesn't exist yet. Airlines do so all the time. I don't understand your point here.
 
atmx2000
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Sat Jun 30, 2007 11:13 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 42):
I expect the A350 to sell at a rate of around 200 per year for the foreseeable future. If I'm anywhere close to correct, we won't need to wait twenty years to see A350 orders reach 1000. Consider that the way the 787 is selling, it will reach 1000 orders next year. I see no reason why the A350 shouldn't sell approximately as well as the 787 (within 30% or so).

Basically almost all of the current 787 orders can be delivered before the A350 starts shipping. Airlines don't have the ability to plan that much further in the future, so I fail to see how the A350 sales rate can exceed the expected delivery rate by a large margin. Frankly, I continue to be surprised by airlines' willingness to commit to buying Airbus products that won't be available for so many years, considering their own economic situation may change. I think Airbus must be giving favorable cancellation or delay terms for them to risk this.

The other thing to note is that 787 orders are so heavily weighted to the smallest model where the A350 does not compete at this point. The question is whether this is due to a) lack of competition leading to airlines signing quickly compared to the larger -9, b) -8 orders being place holders for any 787, c) intrinsicly high demand for aircraft in this size and range class, d) high demand due to -8 addressing multiple markets via 8Y and 9Y configurations, e) high current demand for aircraft in this size range to replace older aircraft,or f) Airbus is saturating the market with the A332 damping demand for the -9.

The A350 range on the other hand includes larger aircraft that one expects to sell in lower volumes. It also covers the same space for one model that is selling at a high rate (A332) that could get saturated as mentioned above harming the sales of the A358 and 789 and another selling at a somewhat lower rate (773ER). The replacement markets for aircraft in these classes won't start for 5 to 10 years after A350 EIS. The A359 is the only model that will have a significant replacement market. The problem for it is that it will likely split the market with a competing 787 variant. The more general problem for Airbus is that Boeing may be able to increase production capability by A350 EIS to a very high level and cut prices significantly as a huge portion of development costs will likely be paid off.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
aminobwana
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Sat Jun 30, 2007 12:43 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 46):
Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 44):
You cannot buy something still not existing

You can contract to buy something that doesn't exist yet. Airlines do so all the time. I don't understand your point here.

You are right. I expressed myself badly.

I am comparing the case of an airline which have the choice TODAY to buy E380s or A787s, needing them in 2012 (more realistic as 2010!). So, they have the choice to buy the by then state-of-the-art B787 or the more older design A380. If they think that the A350 is clearly superior, thay must wait until 2015. In any case, the A380 will be a worse option, which is what we are discussing!

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 46):
I don't think so. Even with the landing fees at the stopping point, etc., it would probably still be quite a bit cheaper per passenger to operate a WhaleJet on the Kangeroo Route with a stop than a 787-8ER nonstop. This would be compensated for by dramatically higher RASM with the 787-8ER as nonstop service could be limited to full fares -- no discount fares in any class, no A, D, Z, Q, V, etc. fares, only F, J/C, Y. I would expect a 787-8ER to be fitted with roughly 150 seats. A configuration of 12F, 50C, 88Y (8 abreast) would seem reasonable.

What you are saying would be an option, assuming that the Australian and British airlines, mainly BA and QF, wish to allow ER, QR, SQ and other HUB providers to participate in the market. As you assume, no pax willing to pay full Y fare or more passenger with accept to spent more than the already terribly long direct flight time going through a hub !!. So, the hubs will be only for the bottom price paying pax, herded into A380 . I am not sure that there is much money to make there and that Australia is a market where a Superwhale with 700-800 "plancton" can be regularly filled!

I see the idea of a B788ER a good one, because even the application is limited, as you say it cost not too much money nor time to develop it. I am not sure how this works for an eventual B7810ER of A3510

aminobwana
 
zvezda
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Sat Jun 30, 2007 2:51 pm

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 47):
The other thing to note is that 787 orders are so heavily weighted to the smallest model where the A350 does not compete at this point. The question is whether this is due to a) lack of competition leading to airlines signing quickly compared to the larger -9, b) -8 orders being place holders for any 787, c) intrinsicly high demand for aircraft in this size and range class, d) high demand due to -8 addressing multiple markets via 8Y and 9Y configurations, e) high current demand for aircraft in this size range to replace older aircraft,or f) Airbus is saturating the market with the A332 damping demand for the -9.

a), b), c) and e) make sense to me. d) I don't understand because the all 787 models are equally suited to 8Y and 9Y configurations. f) doesn't make sense to me because the A330-200 is much nearer to the 787-8 in size than to the 787-9.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 47):
The A350 range on the other hand includes larger aircraft that one expects to sell in lower volumes. It also covers the same space for one model that is selling at a high rate (A332) that could get saturated as mentioned above harming the sales of the A358 and 789 and another selling at a somewhat lower rate (773ER). The replacement markets for aircraft in these classes won't start for 5 to 10 years after A350 EIS.

I disagree. The replacement market starts not when aircraft reach a particular age but when a substantially better aircraft becomes available. The A350-1000 looks to me like a great replacement for any 747-400s still flying.

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 48):
I see the idea of a B788ER a good one, because even the application is limited, as you say it cost not too much money nor time to develop it.

It's a small market, perhaps only 40 or 50 frames worldwide, but the development cost is so low that it is probably worth it. Boeing would not have to offer steep discounts to sell 787-8ERs to BA, NZ, QF, and VS. NRT-GRU is also a likely route.
 
TruemanQLD
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RE: Qantas To Order 70 Planes Including 20x787+NB Plus Fleet Spin Off

Sat Jun 30, 2007 2:59 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
I expect this order will go 737, anyway, due to availability.

Probably, as they already operate a mainly Boeing fleet (A330's excluded)

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 5):
Could this be the B7810ER launch order ??

Doubt it very much

Quoting Manni (Reply 8):
It was rumoured that Jetstar would place a huge order in Paris. That didn't happen. Perhaps these 50 narrowbodies are for Jetstar.

More like 20 of them. These are the main Australian markets: Regional, this is covered by QFLink and REX. Then there is Cheap Leisure covered by JQ and soon TR. There is the luxury/bussiness market covered by QF and then there is the Leisure (with a bit of luxury, but still cheap compared to QF) and this is ONLY covered by DJ. Could QF set up another subsidy to compete?

Quoting ERAUgrad02 (Reply 11):
Maybe they will be for 737-900ER. What are your guesses for the narrowbody model?

I doubt they will go with Boeing as they already have over 24 airbus planes for there domestic market

Quoting Manni (Reply 12):
If they are for Jetstar, then it's the A320. If they are for QF it will be 737s.

QF could go with A320 family... but I doubt it.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 13):
I would refine that by saying 320 series (i.e. not rule out 319/321).....

A319 = Maybe, they would be able to start more routes that have been previously operated by QF Link aircraft
A321 = For routes like BNE-SYD, MEL-SYD, MEL-BNE and some flights on SYD-OOL

Quoting Jupiter2 (Reply 14):
I will go for 30 A320/321's for Jetstar and 20 739's for QF.

I see more like 20 A320's for Jetstar, 20 73NG's for QF and a mix of 10 E70's-E90's for Qantas

Quoting QFYMML (Reply 15):
Qantas mainline is slowly farming off routes to JQ who operate the A320. JetStar Asia operates A320's also & I would assume any new aircraft for the Vietnam offshoot would be from the same family

More than likely. What is the Vietnam airlines current fleet?

Quoting QFYMML (Reply 15):
I can't see any additional 737's being required in these numbers for mainline alone, and don't see the other group members operating a mixed fleet.

73NG's could be required to replace ageing 734's

Quoting QFYMML (Reply 15):
Another possibility I guess, would be Embraers for Qantaslink?

And mainline QF

Quoting SkyyMaster (Reply 17):
Considering Qantas just announced Jetstar was going to start operating on the SYD-BNE route in anticipation of the arrival of Tiger,

Its about time, I always have to drive to OOL for cheap flights to SYD

Quoting SkyyMaster (Reply 17):
Could we possibly see a return to the days when QF was strictly an international carrier w/Jetstar as it's domestic division and LCC international operator?

No definetly not in the next 20 years

Quoting Jbernie (Reply 22):
SYD-MEL early morning & evening will be QF, and the flights during the day will be split between the two.

JQ ONLY operate SYD-AVV which is a completely seperate market

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 35):
Thanks. In other words, aircrafts which can fly from Sydney to the UK (nominal 9,200nm) or to NY (nominal 8,600nm) non stop with 230-270 passengers, not allowing any chance to the HUB connection providers like EK, SQ, QR

That would really knock out growing market from EK and SQ

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 39):
The A350-1000 is going to eat the WhaleJet's lunch, steal its milk money, and suck the marrow from its bones

Nice description

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 39):
The A350 is looking like it'll be the best selling Airbus after the A320 family. In the end, Airbus will be better off for it.

The A350 would have been the best selling Airbus after the A320 family but it was release 4 years to late

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 40):
But I still have hope for the A389

The light is fading but its not gone

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 41):
Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 34):But when I ask for a comparison of the ~1998-2000 basic design A380 with the 2003-2004 basic design B787, a customer who will receive such aircrafts lets say in 2010 will get a a 4-5 year a older design with the A380, referred to all its components and of course, without the advantage of the 50% composite. This means, less state-of-the-art or simply, not state-of-the art. By that same reasoning, the 787 won't be state of the art in 2010. What a ridiculous argument!

Agreed. What a stupid argument

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 41):
I'm sceptical of this. I still don't think the A350 will sell 1,000 units. There's a real chance that when all is said and done the A330/340 will have sold more than the A350 in my opinion. Unfortunately, we're probably two decades away from knowing the answer.

I think we'll know by 2014

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 41):
And in cases where the slot fees, overflight fees, and labor costs are such that it
makes sense to fly one large plane instead of two.

And the A380 costs less then two 787's to buy

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 42):
I expect the A350 to sell at a rate of around 200 per year for the foreseeable future. If I'm anywhere close to correct, we won't need to wait twenty years to see A350 orders reach 1000. Consider that the way the 787 is selling, it will reach 1000 orders next year. I see no reason why the A350 shouldn't sell approximately as well as the 787 (within 30% or so).

I see more like 90-100 a year


This was a talk about QF not the 787 vs A380 vs A350