EI321
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Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 3:56 am

Article outlining some pros and cons of being 5 years behind.

Quote:
TOULOUSE, France -- Nobody will watch the debut this month of Boeing's 787 Dreamliner with greater interest than the 600 Airbus engineers here working around the clock to design a rival midsize jet.

The Airbus workers will be waiting for the production miscues that are inevitable in an aircraft as groundbreaking as the Dreamliner, made largely of composite materials. And they will try to steer their new plane clear of similar pitfalls when it rolls out in 2012.

That's one perk of being late, very late, to market, Airbus officials say.

Because of earlier strategic and design mistakes, Airbus' answer to the hot-selling Dreamliner, the A350 XWB, trails its counterpart by five years, a long lag time for an industry in which competing models usually debut within a year or two of each other.

Boeing has grabbed the early sales lead, racking up about 500 more orders for the 787 than Airbus has garnered for the A350. But officials at Airbus think their aircraft will be technically superior, in part because they will watch and learn from Boeing and take advantage of technological advances.

"Five years is a lot [of time], but it's a very useful lot," said Alan Pardoe, director of product marketing for the A350 and other long-range Airbus aircraft. "We've got five years more of materials, technology, development and research. Plus, we've got the airline endorsement of what Boeing is doing with the airplane to guide us."

And on the A380:

Quote:
Airbus also is trying to reclaim its reputation for top-flight engineering, which was tarnished with the embarrassing glitch that delayed production of its flagship, the double-decker A380 jet, by two years.

"The A380 is on track," said John Leahy, Airbus' chief operating officer and top salesman. "The first airplane will be delivered in October, and we're taking that production rate up to nearly 50 [planes] per year. We haven't forgotten how to build airplanes, much as the people in Seattle would like you to believe." While Boeing is headquartered in Chicago, its major facilities are on the West Coast.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...613792.story?coll=chi-business-hed

Good to hear some direct quotes. They also outline the intention to avoid any mistakes like those on the A380.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 4:03 am

It is never an advantage to be 5 years behind if the product you are behind is successful.

Can you make the best of it? Sure. Does it give your product a chance to be even better? Sure (but it's not assured). But it's just not true it's an advantage.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 4:18 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
But it's just not true it's an advantage.

It's the silver lining of the big dark cloud, how's that?

One important factor to bear in mind is this: even with rollout just around the corner, much of the risk in the 787 program has yet to be retired. Not to say that they haven't already retired many technical and programmatic risks (things have evidently gone rather smoothly to this point), but there could still be snafus on the way through flight testing, certification, production ramp-up and delivering 112 frames by the end of 2009. Obviously, Airbus will be watching this closely, and as the article points out, they will have the "luxury" of reacting as needed on the A350. Come to think of it, that silver lining is rather thin Big grin
 
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Stitch
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 4:24 am

Quote:
"Five years is a lot [of time], but it's a very useful lot," said Alan Pardoe, director of product marketing for the A350 and other long-range Airbus aircraft. "We've got five years more of materials, technology, development and research. Plus, we've got the airline endorsement of what Boeing is doing with the airplane to guide us."

While it is true Airbus is also using CFRP, they are not following Boeing's direction in how it is implemented.

This will probably come across as being harsh on Airbus, but it is clear airlines have faith in Boeing's implementation with close to 700 orders on the books. Airbus had a very good week with the A350 at Paris, but the majority of those orders were conversions of original A350 orders or MoUs offered at favorable prices and delivery times (since they have waited too long for the 787).

If the RFPs for BA, LH, and/or EK go to the A350, that will be an important "endorsement" of Airbus' panel approach in my personal view.

[Edited 2007-07-01 21:49:31]
 
TomFoolery
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 4:53 am

In 5 years, boeing can do alot of damage to a demanding market. Airlines who are not prepared to invest in a super-sized aircraft, yet demand modern efficient aircraft will not wait 5 additional years to see 'what the other guy will offer.´ Airlines will purchase according to their projected needs at a particular time. If the Boeing is the only A/C that fits the needs of the airline that is available when the airline needs it, that is what the customer will buy.
With proven delays, and a MAJOR false start, the A350 XWB 5 year lag may be rather toxic for the kick-off of the program. A major savior tor the XWB is that there are fleets and business plans that lend themselves well to continued Airbus loyalty (maintenance programmes, infrastrucure, certifications, tooling, etc), and this will ensure a future for the XWB indeed, but I dont see it being the industry savior that Airbus is touting.

From the report, my general opinion is that airbus is grasping at straws. The game is underway, and Airbus is not even on the field.
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RIXrat
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:18 am

Plus, in those years of development to 2013 when the A350XWB comes out, don't you think don't you think that Boeing might tweak some shortcomings on the 787, if, indeed, there were some and then even put one over on the 350?
 
aminobwana
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:21 am

Quoting from the URL inthe Thread starter:

Quote:
The Airbus workers will be waiting for the production miscues that are inevitable in an aircraft as groundbreaking as the Dreamliner, made largely of composite materials. And they will try to steer their new plane clear of similar pitfalls when it rolls out in 2012.
..............................
Plus, we've got the airline endorsement of what Boeing is doing with the airplane to guide us."

..............................
There is little doubt that the statements above are applicable if Airbus were developping an aircraft essentially similar and equivalent to the B787.

But it is further stated:

Quote:
But officials at Airbus think their aircraft will be technically superior, in part because they will..........take advantage of technological advances
..............................
We've got five years more of materials, technology, development and research

This means that the aircraft will not have too many similarities with the B747 because of:

- the composuite technology applied will be widely different, as Airbus has confirmed
- the size of the family members coincide only at B789 versus A358
- the engines will be also very different
- and --as Airbus rightly assess, that coming 5 or more years late to the market with a model equivalent to the competition's makes little sense,-- they will not widely use the same compnents and technology as the B787, but try to take advantage of the technological progress of the the years differential between the design dates.

Therefore, is the following statement still applicable ?

Quote:
Airbus knows that in other ways, such as potential loss of sales, time isn't on its side.
That's why Airbus is trying to shave 30 percent to 40 percent off the development time for its new jet while it attempts a major corporate restructuring that will shed 10,000 jobs and six plants across Europe.

As mentioned, this must be achieved during the inevitable organization and labor related disruptions related with the restructuring,
It is further argued that

Quote:
Airbus intends to speed the plane's development by about 18 months by using a new process that keeps engineers, both in-house and at suppliers, working in tandem, the company said. Advances in computer simulation also mean they will have to do far less testing of aerodynamics in wind tunnels, a time-consuming process,

As far as I understand, this was from the beginning a conditio-sine-qua-non of the now very large outsourcing of work and components. In the present case, as Airbus is performing such wide outsourcing for the firsts time applied to a basic model, many snags could arise even under the best organization.

Question:

Was this spead-up of 18 months which Airbus is intending to achieve already considered when the EIS 2013 was named ?

aminobwana

[Edited 2007-07-01 22:23:24]

[Edited 2007-07-01 22:27:24]
 
gbfra
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:54 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
Can you make the best of it? Sure. Does it give your product a chance to be even better? Sure (but it's not assured). But it's just not true it's an advantage.

I agree.

They simply have to make the best of the situation they are in. It's neither comfortable nor desperate.
The fundamental things apply as time goes by
 
2175301
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 12:21 pm

Quoting EI321 (Thread starter):
"Five years is a lot [of time], but it's a very useful lot," said Alan Pardoe, director of product marketing for the A350 and other long-range Airbus aircraft. "We've got five years more of materials, technology, development and research. Plus, we've got the airline endorsement of what Boeing is doing with the airplane to guide us."

The only way the 5 year delay works to an Airbus advantage is if there are major problems with the essentially all Composite 787 design.

Should there not be any major problems with the 787, and should Boeing figure out how to significantly increase production by 2013 (which Boeing has indicated they are looking at).... Then by and large the A350 will be passed by in many places. That is not to say that the A350 will not have some market in larger planes as it seems to be more targeted to the 777 - except I don't think Boeing will sit still with their 777. They have plenty of time to announce what they are going to do with the 777 after the 787 program starts to prove itself (assuming their are no major problems with the 787).
 
Flighty
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 12:36 pm

I don't think Airbus could have (or would have) done a plastic A350 much before now.

An awkward fact of this 5 year "delay" is that it was necessary to wait for Boeing's technology. To invent the 787 was no easy feat. Could Airbus really have done the A350 by now? Given engine availability, for one thing, and the A380 story (for another), I would say no.

Airbus has done the best it could. Now, the A350 is being designed, and promises to be a wonderful jet. It is no shame to fall a little behind Boeing after its strongest and luckiest performance ever, with the 787 program.
 
flashmeister
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 1:08 pm

Airbus' claim of an advantage only holds true if Boeing's design department doesn't do anything during the next five years. We all know that's not going to be the case. Airbus might indeed produce a very good A350, but because of the A380 debacle and their futzing around with A350 to this point, they'll likely be once again reacting to Boeing innovation rather than leading the market.
 
gbfra
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 1:18 pm

Quoting Flashmeister (Reply 10):
Airbus might indeed produce a very good A350, but because of the A380 debacle and their futzing around with A350 to this point, they'll likely be once again reacting to Boeing innovation rather than leading the market.

We'll see what kind of innovation Boeing will be able to pull out of their hat in order to modernise the B777.
The fundamental things apply as time goes by
 
vega
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 2:38 pm

I think Airbus's serious strategic mistake was not so much the delay after delay of the 350 and lack of substantive technical details, but their inability to compensate by upgrading the 333 and/or 332 to longer ranges as a stop gap measure. That would seem to have provided flexibility for (and increased the number of) potential Buyers not wanting to wait 7 years for fuel efficient 2 engine 8K routes.
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andessmf
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 3:09 pm

We can only assume what could occur by looking at the past.

The only times that I recall a competitor airplane coming later than its equivalent airplane was the 707/DC-8 and the DC-10 and L-1011. By all accounts, the DC-8 and L-1011 were superior airplanes, but they both lost the sales race to their competitors. They were all equivalent to their competitors.

The A330 and 777 wiped out the A340.

The 787 is the first airliner to offer CFRP fuselage. The A-350 might offer better technology and more efficiency over the 787, but it is still late to the game. And the slight advantage it might offer over the 787 might not be sufficient to convince a lot of airlines to wait for it. After all, the 787 will be plenty more efficient than the aircraft it is meant to replace. So a 3%-10% efficiency gain over that might not be enough to convince the majority of airlines.

Of course Airbus also did the right thing by offering the A350 as more of a 787/777 competitor rather than a straight 787 equivalent. If I understand correctly, the A350 offers significant operating savings over the 777.
 
aminobwana
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 4:03 pm

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 13):
Of course Airbus also did the right thing by offering the A350 as more of a 787/777 competitor rather than a straight 787 equivalent. If I understand correctly, the A350 offers significant operating savings over the 777.

Agreed. Assuming Airbus will be able to deliver satisfactory A3510 without further future delays, and taking as a fact the valuable opinions of the A-netters that a low development cost B777NG could not compete, at this moment Boeing, if not reacting, would lose the market of the 400 pax sector, including the replacement of the still flying B744 and the older B773. The latter being particularly unpalatable because many of such airlines are loyal Boeing customers.

IMO, what will happen in such case that Boeing will either develop the B7810ER, with characteristic at least similar to the A3510 and even if quite different to the B789, with many common technological characteristics, which will allow them do it possibly before the A3510 is available, or simply address the Y3 earlier as they would like. Given their existing huge timing advantage generally, ,they would be able to implement timely any of these alternatives.

Both alternatives will more expensive and less profitable for Boeing as continue to sell for some years more the B773ER !! Also would complicate some the timing of the Y1. Therefore, it will be not a positive for Airbus, but more a negative for Boeing, and this seems be the reason that the latter will not decide before Airbus affirms the specs and delivery time of the A3510

aminobwana
 
ManchesterMAN
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:51 pm

Well the 777 came after the A340 and MD11 and would be considered by many to be a superior aircraft and has certainly sold better, so I don't see why the same would not be true for the A350. I think the main advantage of the 787 is its smaller size rather than 5 year head start. The A350 will be a fabulous aircraft and will sell in high numbers but it can't directly replace 767s which seems to be the priority for many carriers at the moment. It can of course replace the 777 but most airlines don't want or need to replace them yet.
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andessmf
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 6:05 pm

Quoting ManchesterMAN (Reply 15):
Well the 777 came after the A340 and MD11 and would be considered by many to be a superior aircraft and has certainly sold better, so I don't see why the same would not be true for the A350

I would not call them really equivalent aircraft. It was a 4, 3 and 2 holer.

Quoting ManchesterMAN (Reply 15):
I think the main advantage of the 787 is its smaller size rather than 5 year head start.

Agree, that's why I already wrote in previous threads that Airbus is leaving the lower capacity WB market to Boeing, and attempting to take the higher capacity market by providing a 777 replacement also.

Quoting ManchesterMAN (Reply 15):
The A350 will be a fabulous aircraft and will sell in high numbers but it can't directly replace 767s which seems to be the priority for many carriers at the moment

Being a fabulous aircraft is no guarantee of commercial success.
 
Bongodog1964
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 7:16 pm

Quoting EI321 (Thread starter):
"Five years is a lot [of time], but it's a very useful lot," said Alan Pardoe, director of product marketing for the A350 and other long-range Airbus aircraft. "We've got five years more of materials, technology, development and research. Plus, we've got the airline endorsement of what Boeing is doing with the airplane to guide us."

Bet he would swap products with Boeing if he had the chance !!!!!

The only way five years will be as "very useful" as claimed will be if the 787 turns out to be a total turkey; and I for one can't see that happening
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 8:33 pm

Quoting TomFoolery (Reply 4):
A major savior tor the XWB is that there are fleets and business plans that lend themselves well to continued Airbus loyalty (maintenance programmes, infrastrucure, certifications, tooling, etc), and this will ensure a future for the XWB indeed, but I dont see it being the industry savior that Airbus is touting.

This, and the fact that the airlines desperately want two suppliers is Airbus's main hope at this point. But they still have to come up with an aircraft that is at least the equal of the 787, and I'm not totally convinced that they will do that.

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 13):
By all accounts, the DC-8

I would argue this; the DC-8 was certainly a better built aircraft than the 707, but it did not have as good high-speed high-altitude performance, and the early ones at any rate did not meet their performance goals. That is why Pan Am, who ordered both aircraft, got rid of their DC-8's early and never bought another one. I would say, however, that on balance the DC-8 ended up at least equal to the 707, and the Series 60 and 70 aircraft were spectacular, but they were outclassed by the emergence of the widebodies

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 16):
I would not call them really equivalent aircraft. It was a 4, 3 and 2 holer.

What difference does that make? They still competed for the same market, based on number of seats and range. Whether it has 2 or 20 that and economics are what matter to the airlines.

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 16):

Being a fabulous aircraft is no guarantee of commercial success.


 checkmark 
Very true; classic example being the L-1011.
As mentioned above, Airbus's main salvation at this point is the desire, for a number of reasons, for her not to fail. I also believe it was a smart decision to make the A350 larger than the 787 to target the 777 more than the 787, but this too has its drawbacks. The larger the plane, the smaller the market, and when Boeing launches Y3 (which the A350-1000 will force them to do) it will leave the A350 in an uncomfortable place once Y3 enters service. Airbus will need to come up with at least two planes smaller than the A350 in a timely manner to compete effectively with Boeing's products (assuming Y1 follows the 787), and I'm not at all sure that they can. The overriding imperative is that Airbus simply MUST get the A350 right. If once it enters service it is perceived to be inferior to the 787 Airbus is in a very uncomfortable place; even if it is perceived to be superior the fact that it is so much later will diminish that achievement, although that will certainly revitalize Airbus's image.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
ultrapig
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 8:51 pm

I've asked about reverse engineering before but I wonder how closely and through what means will AB engineers look at a completed 787? It's not lioke they could buy one and disassemble it but will they make arrangements to inspect aircraft of dual customers? Will they try to look athe assembly plants making the barrels?
 
797charter
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 9:04 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
A350 orders or MoUs offered at favorable prices

Source?
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EI321
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 9:11 pm

Quoting Ultrapig (Reply 20):
I've asked about reverse engineering before but I wonder how closely and through what means will AB engineers look at a completed 787?

But we already know that the A350 is a different design, so the answer is a blunt NO.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 9:11 pm

Quoting Ultrapig (Reply 20):
I've asked about reverse engineering before but I wonder how closely and through what means will AB engineers look at a completed 787? It's not lioke they could buy one and disassemble it but will they make arrangements to inspect aircraft of dual customers? Will they try to look athe assembly plants making the barrels?

The real key on the 787 is not to be found by reverse engineering, as it is not in the dimensions and tolerances of the parts but in the processes with which they are made. I'm sure that Airbus has plenty of industrial spies sniffing around, but if the processes are patented (which I am sure most of them are) the information is public but Airbus can't use it without license. It does, however, give them insight into how Boeing is doing it and will be helpful in figuring out a way that does not infringe on the patents. But as I understand it, Airbus went to panels partly to avoid that issue completely, as they did not want to lose more time. They do know how to work with composites; they just do not know how to make fuselage barrels at this point.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
EI321
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 9:16 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 23):
I'm sure that Airbus has plenty of industrial spies sniffing around

If this allegation is true, you think this is a practice unique to airbus?
 
helvknight
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 9:21 pm

Quoting 797charter (Reply 21):
Source?

Anet myth.
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SEPilot
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 9:22 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 24):

If this allegation is true, you think this is a practice unique to airbus?

Heck no; they all do it. It is only illegal if they steal confidential information, and especially if they use it. Finding out what and how the competition is doing things is part of doing business.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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Stitch
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 9:34 pm

Quoting 797charter (Reply 21):


Quoting Stitch,reply=3:
A350 orders or MoUs offered at favorable prices.

Source?

I swear, is this forum predominately populated with parrots?

I am sick and tired of people, regardless of their time on this forum or their RU, constantly squawking "Source?" like some spastic Psittacidae whenever they hear something that doesn't fit their narrow world-view.

My source is Airbus executives, Airbus sales people, airlines executives, industry analysts, bankers and financiers, and scores of other people directly connected with these deals. Unlike the parrots, I actually like to educate myself on these things... *shakes head*

Oh, and "favorable prices" does not mean "sold below cost", "given away", or "discounted to a margin of $1". Airbus is making a profit on these deals and I have never written anything to the contrary. In fact, I spend an inordinate amount of time actually debasing these claims by other members who don't bother to perform the research I do.
 
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Revelation
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 9:45 pm

Quoting EI321 (Thread starter):
"The A380 is on track," said John Leahy, Airbus' chief operating officer and top salesman.

Yes, but the question is, which track is it on?

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 2):
Airbus will be watching this closely, and as the article points out, they will have the "luxury" of reacting as needed on the A350.

Five years late, it will be a dull echo, not a roar.
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DAYflyer
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 9:53 pm

Quoting EI321 (Thread starter):

Pure spin and hyperbole, and they know it.  Wink
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Stitch
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 9:54 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 28):


Quoting WingedMigrator,reply=2:
Airbus will be watching this closely, and as the article points out, they will have the "luxury" of reacting as needed on the A350.

Five years late, it will be a dull echo, not a roar.

Especially since people seem to think that over the next five years Boeing will not touch the 787 and let the design remain static.

Boeing will be creating various "Blocks" of 787s as they refine the design based on in-service data. Airbus, on the other hand, will be the one "frozen" with their design through EIS and the first year or two of service when they, too, will start to improve the design.
 
helvknight
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 10:00 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 27):
I am sick and tired of people, regardless of their time on this forum or their RU, constantly squawking "Source?" like some spastic Psittacidae whenever they hear something that doesn't fit their narrow world-view.

My apologies, Stitch. It is a bit reflexive due to the usual rubbish about "Airbus giving away planes", "6 free A330s for a weeks A380 delay" and all the other stuff that the cheerleaders come out with.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 27):
Oh, and "favorable prices" does not mean "sold below cost", "given away", or "discounted to a margin of $1". Airbus is making a profit on these deals and I have never written anything to the contrary

in other words the pricing is competitive. If Airbus were actually giving away planes there would be grounds for a dumping case against them.
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Stitch
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 10:11 pm

Quoting Helvknight (Reply 31):
in other words the pricing is competitive. If Airbus were actually giving away planes there would be grounds for a dumping case against them.

 checkmark   thumbsup   yes 

Aircraft purchase deals are not the "Top Secret Umbra" classified items many believe them to be and the fact that the details on things like the "discount rate" is quite similar for both Airbus and Boeing show that both compete vigorously - but sanely - for deals.

And the "discount rate" should not be taken as an absolute value, since both companies bundle in many ancillaries whose prices are negotiated separately and whose margins and mark-ups are much higher, which is why both Airbus and Boeing continue to pull in good margins for each aircraft family even in such competitive times.
 
helvknight
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 10:21 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 32):
And the "discount rate" should not be taken as an absolute value, since both companies bundle in many ancillaries whose prices are negotiated separately and whose margins and mark-ups are much higher, which is why both Airbus and Boeing continue to pull in good margins for each aircraft family even in such competitive times.

Very true. Value added items such as spares, support contracts and training will make a significant contribution to the bottom line, both for the airframe and the engine manufacturers.
I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member - Groucho Marx
 
aminobwana
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 10:30 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 22):
Quoting Ultrapig (Reply 20):
I've asked about reverse engineering before but I wonder how closely and through what means will AB engineers look at a completed 787?

But we already know that the A350 is a different design, so the answer is a blunt NO.

Could be this is not a pertinent question. but being the main novelties of the B787:

* the composite barrel construction
(which Airbus is not using and I wonder how much of Boeings experience with it can be extrapolated to panel assembling)

* the integrated planning and direct interaction with subcontarctors worldwide, in a certain manner treating these not as "strangers" but if they were simply factories or service providers of their own organization (which is an issue difficult to "look at")

how much profit Airbus will be able to extract from this Boeing observation ??

Obviously there will be many other things to look on, but I do not see this as extremely material

As for the performance data, this would provide a goal for Airbus planning, but not much more.

By the way, it is often mentioned that Airbus could make use of some of of the main subcontractors of the B787.
I wonder if this is possible given the workload these must already perform for Boeing, aside of the obvious confidentialiy issues ??

aminobwana
 
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 10:35 pm

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 8):
The only way the 5 year delay works to an Airbus advantage is if there are major problems with the essentially all Composite 787 design.

No. Engines, engines, engines.

Quoting ManchesterMAN (Reply 15):
Well the 777 came after the A340 and MD11 and would be considered by many to be a superior aircraft and has certainly sold better, so I don't see why the same would not be true for the A350.

Engines, engines, engines. In my opinion, THIS is the big question: can the engine makers come up with a powerplant in this thrust class that provides even better efficiency than the GEnx and cohorts? I have my doubts, if for no other reason than I'm not sure five years is enough time.

The head of GEAE said something interesting at Le Bourget, something to the effect of "Airbus told us that the engine we offered them didn't work for them." Why not? Is it because Airbus *needs* a leapfrog in engine efficiency to meet its goals, or for other reasons?

To say, "Well, 777 leapfrogged its competitors, so it must be true that A350 will leapfrog 787" is a bit simplistic. There are reasons why 777 was better, and they can be analyzed. There is no doubt that better engines helped immensely, along with improvements in materials and aerodynamics.

Can A350 truly be yet another leapfrog, in only five years, *without* considerably more advanced engines? If so, then you're right; if not, Airbus is blowing hot air out its tailpipes.

Quoting Gbfra (Reply 11):
We'll see what kind of innovation Boeing will be able to pull out of their hat in order to modernise the B777.

Quite right. Boeing is already giving indications that Y3 is not their chosen path, but instead they wish to upgrade the 777. A new wing, maybe all-composite, with minor engine tweaks and other weight reductions measures, could put the aircraft on a diet and give it improved fuel burn.

The goal of such a move doesn't have to be domination of the A350; it doesn't even have to be 50% of the market. Some airlines will buy an improved 777 because (a) it's not made by Airbus, (b) they can get one, and (c) they already fly them. If such a move allows them to garner a substantial minority share of the 777 replacement market, and providees a healthy return on investment, it might be quite successful.
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bigjku
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 11:07 pm

Quoting Gbfra (Reply 11):
We'll see what kind of innovation Boeing will be able to pull out of their hat in order to modernise the B777.



Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 14):
Agreed. Assuming Airbus will be able to deliver satisfactory A3510 without further future delays, and taking as a fact the valuable opinions of the A-netters that a low development cost B777NG could not compete, at this moment Boeing, if not reacting, would lose the market of the 400 pax sector, including the replacement of the still flying B744 and the older B773. The latter being particularly unpalatable because many of such airlines are loyal Boeing customers.



Quoting ContnlEliteCMH (Reply 35):
Quite right. Boeing is already giving indications that Y3 is not their chosen path, but instead they wish to upgrade the 777. A new wing, maybe all-composite, with minor engine tweaks and other weight reductions measures, could put the aircraft on a diet and give it improved fuel burn.

Really all of this is not that important. Boeing is not going to put anything much into the 777 program from this point on. If they can find a cheap upgrade that would enable them to sell a few more frames then sure, but things like a new wing, making it compoiste ect are not going to happen as the cost would be getting close to a new plane.

Boeing has not clarified their response to this point. They have been pretty clear that one is being worked on. What I suspect you will see is they will look at the options avaliable for competing with the A350XWB and decide that the most efficient way to do it is to strech the 787 fuselage to comprable lengths and if necessary put a new wing on it along with more powerful engines. It is the most cost effective solution and it can be done within the existing manufacturing base. They would not need new transports or a whole lot of new tooling and the plane would be very competitive.

Y-3 is great, but the question is how how wide to make it. 10 wide is about the widest you could be and still have a plane that is in the market size that the A350XWB would be in but the advantage gained there is not really enough to justify the cost of a new fuselage and all that associated infrastructure. 11 wide is just too big for this market.

Quoting ManchesterMAN (Reply 15):
Well the 777 came after the A340 and MD11 and would be considered by many to be a superior aircraft and has certainly sold better, so I don't see why the same would not be true for the A350.



Quoting ContnlEliteCMH (Reply 35):
Engines, engines, engines. In my opinion, THIS is the big question: can the engine makers come up with a powerplant in this thrust class that provides even better efficiency than the GEnx and cohorts? I have my doubts, if for no other reason than I'm not sure five years is enough time.

I think the real question is what is stopping Boeing from putting any new engine developed for the A350XWB on bigger versions of the 787? It is already close to a given that a new gear would be needed for a longer strech, at that point they can raise the gear and put any engine that is on the A350XWB onto a bigger 787. The reason the A340 and MD11 could not adapt is that they had more engines. With fundamentally similar designs there is no reason that the 787 cannot just hang the same engine with some modifications and compete just fine. It will come down to airframe efficiency and MX cost which I think would favor the 787 due to the design.
 
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 11:08 pm

Quoting Helvknight (Reply 31):
My apologies, Stitch. It is a bit reflexive due to the usual rubbish about "Airbus giving away planes", "6 free A330s for a weeks A380 delay" and all the other stuff that the cheerleaders come out with.

..no, no, no..you got it completely wrong..Airbus does give their planes away...after all, it is a jobs program... Wink

Quoting ContnlEliteCMH (Reply 35):
Boeing is already giving indications that Y3 is not their chosen path, but instead they wish to upgrade the 777.

...while I have read the article by Boeing as to them stating they want to upgrade the B777, Boeing has given some indications of a Y3 (albeit quite small)....but it probably won't be for a while...and it depends more on other variables...
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 11:21 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 32):
And the "discount rate" should not be taken as an absolute value, since both companies bundle in many ancillaries whose prices are negotiated separately and whose margins and mark-ups are much higher, which is why both Airbus and Boeing continue to pull in good margins for each aircraft family even in such competitive times.

I'm leery when anyone compares percentages. The two different companies have two different strategies on how to set the list price, and they have two different cost bases, which in the end is what you base your discount on.

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 36):
I think the real question is what is stopping Boeing from putting any new engine developed for the A350XWB on bigger versions of the 787?

Well, the only engine being developed for the XWB is the Trent, and it's up to RR to decide if the market is there to cover the cost of the engineering needed to put that engine and/or its technology into a follow-on for the 787 market.
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 11:27 pm

Quoting ContnlEliteCMH (Reply 35):
Quite right. Boeing is already giving indications that Y3 is not their chosen path, but instead they wish to upgrade the 777. A new wing, maybe all-composite, with minor engine tweaks and other weight reductions measures, could put the aircraft on a diet and give it improved fuel burn.

This will be no more successful than Airbus's attempts to answer the 787 with warmed-over A330 variations. It would be a complete waste of money.
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 11:38 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 37):
it is a jobs program...


Are you talking about tha Mobile Alabama plant ? 

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 39):
Quoting ContnlEliteCMH (Reply 35):
Quite right. Boeing is already giving indications that Y3 is not their chosen path, but instead they wish to upgrade the 777. A new wing, maybe all-composite, with minor engine tweaks and other weight reductions measures, could put the aircraft on a diet and give it improved fuel burn.

This will be no more successful than Airbus's attempts to answer the 787 with warmed-over A330 variations. It would be a complete waste of money.


Boeing should have learned by now from the A330 lite and 747-8I. Giving the 777 a boob job is akin to sticking a band aid on a leaking nuclear reactor. Better versions of the 787 are the way to go. Unlike the 747-8, a warmed up 777 would not be kept afloat by having a monopoly in the F market.

[Edited 2007-07-02 16:45:44]
 
jacobin777
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 11:43 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 40):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 37):
it is a jobs program...


Are you talking about tha Mobile Alabama plant ?  Wink

..and a few others... Wink
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 11:45 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 40):
Better versions of the 787 are the way to go. Unlike the 747-8, a warmed up 777 would not be kept afloat by having a monopoly in the F market.

 checkmark 
Either that, or Y3. I suspect they'll go with the latter, even though it means surrendering the 777 sized market for 4-5 years.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
aminobwana
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 11:48 pm

Quoting ContnlEliteCMH (Reply 35):
The goal of such a move doesn't have to be domination of the A350; it doesn't even have to be 50% of the market. Some airlines will buy an improved 777 because (a) it's not made by Airbus, (b) they can get one, and (c) they already fly them. If such a move allows them to garner a substantial minority share of the 777 replacement market, and providees a healthy return on investment, it might be quite successful.

I do not agree that this would be a wise movement for Boeing. To release the domination of the 400 pax market to Airbus only to be able to make a good profit from the remaining minority stake would blow away a good part of the advantageous situation Boeing has achieved by now. This would be a reiteration of the past mistake not to develop a timely B744 substitute in the illusion this cash cow would survive for several years more

The situation would be different if they could achieve a low development cost B777NG which would ensure them
a majority of the 400 pax market, but many doubt this is possible. (see also my Reply 34)

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 36):
Boeing has not clarified their response to this point. They have been pretty clear that one is being worked on. What I suspect you will see is they will look at the options avaliable for competing with the A350XWB and decide that the most efficient way to do it is to strech the 787 fuselage to comprable lengths and if necessary put a new wing on it along with more powerful engines. It is the most cost effective solution and it can be done within the existing manufacturing base. They would not need new transports or a whole lot of new tooling and the plane would be very competitive.

 checkmark 

aminobwana
 
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 11:49 pm

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 14):
IMO, what will happen in such case that Boeing will either develop the B7810ER, with characteristic at least similar to the A3510 and even if quite different to the B789, with many common technological characteristics, which will allow them do it possibly before the A3510 is available, or simply address the Y3 earlier as they would like.

This touches on an important point, though you did not state it as such: With the EIS of the 787-10 being similar to that of the A350-900 (its' direct competition), Boeing has more than enough time to put a 777LR-style revamp program into the works for the 787-10.

Quoting ContnlEliteCMH (Reply 35):
The head of GEAE said something interesting at Le Bourget, something to the effect of "Airbus told us that the engine we offered them didn't work for them." Why not? Is it because Airbus *needs* a leapfrog in engine efficiency to meet its goals, or for other reasons?



Quoting Revelation (Reply 38):
Well, the only engine being developed for the XWB is the Trent, and it's up to RR to decide if the market is there to cover the cost of the engineering needed to put that engine and/or its technology into a follow-on for the 787 market.

Yes, but GE won't be standing still either. Boeing may (and should) keep GE and RR's feet to the fire to produce improved engine variants.
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aminobwana
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Mon Jul 02, 2007 11:58 pm

Quoting N328KF (Reply 44):
Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 14):
IMO, what will happen in such case that Boeing will either develop the B7810ER, with characteristic at least similar to the A3510 and even if quite different to the B789, with many common technological characteristics, which will allow them do it possibly before the A3510 is available, or simply address the Y3 earlier as they would like.

This touches on an important point, though you did not state it as such: With the EIS of the 787-10 being similar to that of the A350-900 (its' direct competition), Boeing has more than enough time to put a 777LR-style revamp program into the works for the 787-10.

Thanks. This is what I wanted to say, it seems that due to my bad English I was not clear enough,

regards

aminobwana
 
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Tue Jul 03, 2007 12:17 am

Quoting 797charter (Reply 21):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
A350 orders or MoUs offered at favorable prices

Source?



Quote:
According to the people familiar with the situation, Airbus was able to sway US Airways with steep incentives, including an offer to renegotiate existing orders for other models, a move that could save the Tempe, Ariz., airline hundreds of millions of dollars.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1182...RDS=airbus&COLLECTION=wsjie/6month

Quote:
Airbus's aggressive attempts to narrow the gap with archrival Boeing by discounting airplane prices run the risk of harming its profitability, analysts said. The move to drum up sales of its wide-bodied planes, and the new A350 XWB in particular, with reduced prices may counteract Airbus's continuing efforts to boost its financial performance under a major restructuring program, industry experts said

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1182...RDS=airbus&COLLECTION=wsjie/6month
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Tue Jul 03, 2007 12:30 am

Just a quick not about the article source's -- the Chicago Tribune. I've noticed that more than few threads have been started with articles taken from the Trib. And rightly so. As a life-long Chicagoan and Tribune reader, I've found the Trib's coverage of Boeing/Airbus and aerospace-related news to be top-notch (and very objective, I might add) since Boeing relocated its headquarters to Chicago in 2001. Recently, is seems the Trib regularly runs articles about the ever-evolving "battle for the skies". I'm very proud that Boeing calls Chicago home, and I'm happy that my local paper is bringing global attention to an ongoing and epic competition.
 
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Tue Jul 03, 2007 12:38 am

Quoting ORDFan (Reply 47):
Just a quick not about the article source's -- the Chicago Tribune. I've noticed that more than few threads have been started with articles taken from the Trib...I've found the Trib's coverage of Boeing/Airbus and aerospace-related news to be top-notch (and very objective, I might add)...

Honestly I have never understood why some people believe if an article is sourced from a news outlet in Seattle, Chicago, France, Germany or the UK it is automatically "biased" in favor of Boeing or Airbus because of that fact.

Considering how international many major news corporations are, it's downright silly, in my view, to believe that these periodicals are somehow "parochial" when it comes to reporting on either manufacturer. Yes, they may frame the article in a view more favorable/relevant to that of their local constituency, but they're not writing outright lies and quarter-truths as is often insinuated.
 
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Tue Jul 03, 2007 12:40 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 48):
Honestly I have never understood why some people believe if an article is sourced from a news outlet in Seattle, Chicago, France, Germany or the UK it is automatically "biased" in favor of Boeing or Airbus because of that fact.

Indeed, some of the most scathing EADS Airbus criticism over the past 2-3 years has been from French and German papers.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
aminobwana
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RE: Late Start Has Perks For Airbus

Tue Jul 03, 2007 12:40 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 46):
Quoting 797charter (Reply 21):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
A350 orders or MoUs offered at favorable prices

Source

Without denying the merits if the CHICAGO TRIBUNE, as somebody could say they are biased in favor of their home company Boeing, please note the the Articles posted originate at the Wall Street Journal (WSJ)

aminobwana