EI321
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Boeing Say Asian Airlines Will Grow 6.3% Per Annum

Mon Jul 02, 2007 11:57 pm

I had to shorten the title a bit.

Boeing predicts Asia Pacific airlines will see 6.3 percent annual traffic growth to 2026

Quote:
Out of the US$1.02 trillion that Asia Pacific airlines are forecast to spend on new planes, 53 percent will be for twin-aisle planes that can carry 200-400 passengers, and 32 percent will be for single-aisle planes that can carry 90-240 passengers, Tinseth said. Regional jets that seat no more than 90 are expected to make up 2 percent. Large aircraft such as the Boeing 747 and rival Airbus' superjumbo A380, which seat more than 400 passengers, will account for 14 percent.

If my calculations are right, that 14% VLA market is roughly $168 billion, or 560 VLA's based on a list price of $300m each. What is not clear is whether or not Randy is including freighters in his figures. I believe he is.


http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/...S-FIN-COM-Asia-Boeing-Forecast.php
 
ikramerica
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RE: Boeing Say Asian Airlines Will Grow 6.3% Per Annum

Tue Jul 03, 2007 12:14 am

It doesn't seem as if they are talking about F models, actually.

Here's my math:
1020000 * .14
= 142800 (billion $)

142800 / 300
= 476 (VLAs)

This is the projection now through 2026. I'd expect that if Y3 is launched, it will come in a 400+ seat model by 2020. And I don't expect anyone to be buying today's A380 or 748 models after 2018.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Boeing Say Asian Airlines Will Grow 6.3% Per Annum

Tue Jul 03, 2007 4:00 am

Randy T (RanT as opposed to RanB  Wink ) went into a little more detail here:

Quote:
Breaking down those numbers, Boeing projects that over the next 20 years, demand for passenger and cargo planes of 400 seats or more will be for 960 airplanes, while demand for twin-aisle planes seating 200-400 passengers will total 6,290. It predicts carriers will need 17,650 single-aisle planes seating 90-240 passengers.

"It's not that we don't see a market" for the larger planes, said Tinseth. "We just see it as significantly less."

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/fligh...007-06-29-airbus-boeing-asia_N.htm
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EI321
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RE: Boeing Say Asian Airlines Will Grow 6.3% Per Annum

Tue Jul 03, 2007 4:01 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
It doesn't seem as if they are talking about F models, actually.

Here's my math:
1020000 * .14
= 142800 (billion $)

142800 / 300
= 476 (VLAs)

Cheers. Your right, I typed in $1.2t instead of $1.02t.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
I'd expect that if Y3 is launched, it will come in a 400+ seat model by 2020

If it is launched, there will not be a 787-11. This means that Boeing will have to go in at the A350-1000 size and work upwards.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
I don't expect anyone to be buying today's A380 or 748 models after 2018.

I think the 787-8F will still be around. By then we could see the A380-900 and A380-800R with the Trent XWB. I dont think they will launch the A380-800F again without a suitable solution to the loading problem.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Boeing Say Asian Airlines Will Grow 6.3% Per Annum

Tue Jul 03, 2007 9:16 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 3):
I think the 787-8F will still be around.

You are right. I should have clarified and said in the pax realm.

And from the clarification above from RandyT, this 475 or so is pax demand, as there is another 500 or so cargo demand. I don't know if you count cargo conversions in that number, but there would be at least 300 744 cargo conversions in that number, leaving only 200 new build or less VLA sized F over 20 years, so I doubt Boeing would offer the Y3F before 2026...

And I do agree that there will be no 787-11 and that the Y3 will start at 350 seats, go to 415 and possibly be stretched to 475 seats if the market demands it. I know Zvezda thinks otherwise, but optimally, I think Boeing is going to launch Y3 in two sizes and then see what the market demands for the third, just like they did with the 787.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
EI321
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RE: Boeing Say Asian Airlines Will Grow 6.3% Per Annum

Tue Jul 03, 2007 6:57 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
I don't know if you count cargo conversions in that number, but there would be at least 300 744 cargo conversions in that number, leaving only 200 new build or less VLA sized F over 20 years, so I doubt Boeing would offer the Y3F before 2026...

Randy was refering to new planes only (see bold), not conversions.

Quote:
Out of the US$1.02 trillion that Asia Pacific airlines are forecast to spend on new planes, 53 percent will be for twin-aisle planes that can carry 200-400 passengers, and 32 percent will be for single-aisle planes that can carry 90-240 passengers, Tinseth said. Regional jets that seat no more than 90 are expected to make up 2 percent. Large aircraft such as the Boeing 747 and rival Airbus' superjumbo A380, which seat more than 400 passengers, will account for 14 percent.

And this is coherent with the 20 year market forcast on boeing.com. Out of the 28000 new aircraft in the boeing / airbus market, boeing say that 960 will be new aircraft in the 400+ seat category. In the same category, airbus predict about 500 more. Even if Y3 is launched, it wont not start at the 747-8 size and go up. It will start at the A350-1000 size and probebly come in another flavour about the same size as the 747-8 (about 415 seats as you mentioed above). If on the other hand, boeing decide to develope a hypothetical 787-11ER to replace the 777-300ER, its unlikely that there wil ever be a Y3 launch, and the next all new large boeing aircraft would be a 787 replacement which could be years in the distance. Another cheaper possibility is that Boeing could attempt to use the 787 fuselage design for Y3, but optomise the aircraft in a different way with larger wings, engines, range, etc.
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing Say Asian Airlines Will Grow 6.3% Per Annum

Tue Jul 03, 2007 7:21 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 5):
If on the other hand, boeing decide to develope a hypothetical 787-11ER to replace the 777-300ER, its unlikely that there wil ever be a Y3 launch, and the next all new large boeing aircraft would be a 787 replacement which could be years in the distance. Another cheaper possibility is that Boeing could attempt to use the 787 fuselage design for Y3, but optomise the aircraft in a different way with larger wings, engines, range, etc.

Any 787-11 with the payload/range performance of the 777-300ER and then existing 787 wing (with larger winglets, of course) would need at least 100K lbs of thrust to achieve decent field performance for takeoffs. I think it is more likely that Boeing would develop a new larger wing if they choose to develop a 787-11.
 
EI321
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RE: Boeing Say Asian Airlines Will Grow 6.3% Per Annum

Tue Jul 03, 2007 8:49 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 6):
Any 787-11 with the payload/range performance of the 777-300ER and then existing 787 wing (with larger winglets, of course) would need at least 100K lbs of thrust to achieve decent field performance for takeoffs. I think it is more likely that Boeing would develop a new larger wing if they choose to develop a 787-11.

I think this is where the GE's reluctance to develop an A350-1000 sized engine will go against them. They can argue against an engine for Airbus, but its an engine thet they will eneviatably need for Boeing anyway. GE will have to jump off the cliff eventually, and I believe that the best time to do this engine is in the next few years, because traditionaly loyal GE customers wont wait forever if they believe that the A350-1000 persents a better option for them than new 777-300ER's.

As for the 787-11 with 100k engines, it would still be several years away from now if ever. Besides the engines, the wings are a major issue and im not sure how much the current 787 wing will allow for them.

The current 787 wing: 203ft span, area 3501sq ft.

The current A350 wing: 209ft span, area 4740 sq ft.
 
EI321
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RE: Boeing Say Asian Airlines Will Grow 6.3% Per Annum

Tue Jul 03, 2007 9:49 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 7):
The current 787 wing: 203ft span, area 3501sq ft.

The current A350 wing: 209ft span, area 4740 sq ft.

If I may add, the larger wing area of the A350 would appear to lend itself better to a wingtip extension than the 787 wing. This just might lend itself well to an 'A350-1100', if airbus ever needed a counter attack to Y3, vis-a-vis the case of the 787-10 V's A350-900.