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Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 6:47 pm

GE have taken a strong lead on the 787. Winning all the Chinese business except Air China and then getting the huge Qantas order have put them well ahead.

But there are some intriguing hints on the RR website that they have something up their sleeve.

Celebrating that the 787 which is revealed on Sunday will have Trents and not GEnx engines under the wings, RR issued a press release yesterday (4th July) which includes...

Including business won but not yet announced, orders have been placed for over 500 Trent 1000 engines by 15 operators and four leasing companies.

http://www.rolls-royce.com/media/showPR.jsp?PR_ID=40515

OK, the "four leasing companies" are ILFC, CIT, LCAL and Pegasus but what about the "15 operators"? Even allowing for two RR-powered BBJs (= 2 "operators") that still leaves three airlines (or at least "operators") to account for. Moreover, the Boeing website lists 115 RR orders to which we can add 10 for Avianca making 125. But "over 500 engines" implies double that number of orders.

I assume that "orders" includes options and commitments so we may not be looking for 125 additional firm orders but there must still be some healthy business in the pipeline.

So, of the announced orders where an engine choice has not been announced, which three airlines could credibly have signed already for RR Trents?

Singapore Airlines (with five[!] versions of the Trent already orderted or in service)?
Kenya Airways (who chose RR for their 777s)?
Arkia (an operator of RR on their 757s for many years)?
Royal Jordanian?
Virgin?

And will all be revealed on Sunday?!  spin 
 
EI321
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 6:53 pm

But there are still several UFO 787s orders on the books. It sounds like three of these are gona be RR powered. This could easily include QR x 30, since they will have the RR powered A350.
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 6:54 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 1):
This could easily include QR x 30, since they will have the RR powered A350.

Hey. Hadn't even thought of the UFOs! You're right...  bigthumbsup 
 
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Stitch
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 6:57 pm

Hopefully most, if not all, of the UFOs will come forward on Sunday.
 
keesje
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 7:20 pm

RR doing ~50% on 787 and 100% on A350XWB.

Boeing sees more then 6000 twin aisles for the next 20 yrs. http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/images/lg_highlights_cmo07.gif

Luckely GE is protecting it's interest on the 777/GE90.

Smart business decision.

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 7:37 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 4):
RR doing ~50% on 787

Fingers crossed but it's GE in the driving seat right now.

Quoting PM (Thread starter):
So, of the announced orders where an engine choice has not been announced, which three airlines could credibly have signed already for RR Trents?

Maybe I've forgotten an obvious candidate: Aeroflot will have Trents on the A350s and have chosen RR for their A330s.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 7:42 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 4):
Boeing sees more then 6000 twin aisles for the next 20 yrs. Luckely GE is protecting it's interest on the 777/GE90. Smart business decision.

Might very well turn out to be that way. Those 6000 frames will include A330s, A340s, 777s, 787s (including HGW 787s), A350s, and (possibly) Y3s. GE plays in four of those markets now, will definitely play in a fifth, and wants to play in all six if Airbus will let them.

Looks to me like they have their bases pretty well covered.
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 7:57 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
GE plays in four of those markets now

Forgive me if I posit that not many of those 6,000 will be A340s with CFM...  Wink (Or,for that matter, A340s with RR...  Sad ) Nor should GE expect significant further orders on the A330. They've certainly got the 777 wrapped up but both GE and RR have a lot riding on the 787.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
and wants to play in all six if Airbus will let them.

I think the jury is still out as to whether it's Airbus or GE who is reluctant to get into bed. GE say they want to; Airbus say GE don't want to badly enough.

GE say they want to do it but Airbus in insisting on a ring first - and everyone knows that GE is already engaged!
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 8:25 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 7):
GE say they want to do it but Airbus in insisting on a ring first - and everyone knows that GE is already engaged!

Haha! Nicely put  Smile

I'm assuming the tussle is over GE being willing to go on the -800 and -900 but not the -1000, whereas Airbus probably wants them only if they go for all three.

If someone could clarify, has the -1000 even been launched? Has the -900?
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 8:30 pm

Quoting Aerokiwi (Reply 8):
If someone could clarify, has the -1000 even been launched? Has the -900?

Yup, all three. Qatar have ordered each version. No-one else has yet gone for the -1000. Some airlines have chosen the -800 and -900 but not yet specified the mix. They can probably afford to wait a year or two.  Wink
 
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Stitch
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 8:31 pm

Quoting Aerokiwi (Reply 8):
If someone could clarify, has the -1000 even been launched? Has the -900?

Yes, both received launch orders at Paris.

I expect that about the time Airbus is ready to announce final design freeze, GE will be ready to announce their involvement on the A350 program to at least the A350-800 and A350-900, and I expect Airbus to capitulate and allow them to power only those two variants. GE needs to be assured Airbus will not raise the stakes yet again by having the final A350 spec require even more power, putting it farther out of reach of the GEnx series and Airbus needs GE to maximize the sales of the A350-800 and A350-900 (I expect the A350-1000 and A350-900R/A350-900F to be a small enough (<1000 frames) market to warrant RR being a single supplier).

[Edited 2007-07-05 13:32:53]
 
Lumberton
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 8:36 pm

Quoting PM (Thread starter):
So, of the announced orders where an engine choice has not been announced, which three airlines could credibly have signed already for RR Trents?

Singapore Airlines (with five[!] versions of the Trent already orderted or in service)?
Kenya Airways (who chose RR for their 777s)?
Arkia (an operator of RR on their 757s for many years)?
Royal Jordanian?
Virgin?

Its early for me here, but I still don't see how the lessors and these carriers can get them to 500 engines--even if QR were included (as the recipient of the 30 UFO's)? If the 500 number is correct, there are likely orders that have been firmed but not announced.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
keesje
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 8:46 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
I expect that about the time Airbus is ready to announce final design freeze, GE will be ready to announce their involvement on the A350 program to at least the A350-800 and A350-900, and I expect Airbus to capitulate and allow them to power only those two variants.

Lets not forget Airbus has an engine and more then 150 A350XWB's including -1000 ordered.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A350_orders

The Emirates have taken a 3% stake in EADS & will order 100 twin aisles in the next few weeks/months.

They indicated they are interested in the bigger 787/a350 variants only & they need to have LAX range.

EK is a big time GE customer and no doubt has send a Request For Information they have to answer.

Exiting situations for GE.

Wait & See = loosing market share.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 8:49 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 11):
I still don't see how the lessors and these carriers can get them to 500 engines

I actually think you're right. To reach 500+ firm orders they need another 100+ frames. And if they are talking about 3 more customers then I just can't see it.

One possibility is that RR have picked up the lion's share of the Paris ILFC order for 50 - but I doubt if that has happened.

Another possibility is that the five additional operators don't include the two BBJs but are Aeroflot, Singapore, the unannounced order for 30, Virgin plus one more. That could reach 100 additional frames. But it ain't gonna happen. RR aren't going to neglect the chance to list two BBJ customers as "operators". So that leaves three airline customers and however you crunch the numbers that isn't 100 frames.

So we're back to...

Quoting PM (Thread starter):
"orders" includes options and commitments

That's still OK. I'd assume that most of those will be built. But it isn't the same as firm orders and it still won't bring them level with General Evil - however they spin it.

Naturally, I'd be more than happy to be proved wrong.

Off topic, IB results come out in 15 minutes so I'm a bit hyper. Apologies...  spin   pray   hyper 

(Those of you who know what I'm talking about will understand. The rest of you needn't worry...)
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 9:05 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 4):
RR doing ~50% on 787 and 100% on A350XWB.

Let's not forget that GE has the 747-8 to supply for, which currently just about numerically negates Rolls' A350 base.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 9:10 pm

Quoting N328KF (Reply 14):
Let's not forget that GE has the 747-8 to supply for, which currently just about numerically negates Rolls' A350 base.

I'm not going to quarrel with that for one minute. But which will be selling at 100-200 a year a decade from now - the 748 or the A350?

(OK, perhaps neither of them but you get my point.  Wink )
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 9:14 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 15):
I'm not going to quarrel with that for one minute. But which will be selling at 100-200 a year a decade from now - the 748 or the A350?

I do get your point, but in a decade, we're talking about a whole new ballgame, with several market segments likely involving new players.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 9:19 pm

Quoting N328KF (Reply 16):
I do get your point, but in a decade, we're talking about a whole new ballgame, with several market segments likely involving new players.

2017...? Point taken. But let's see. There's unlikely to be any new model from Airbus by then but there may be new variants of the A350 and A380. The 777 will be on its last legs but new versions of the 787 may have taken its place. Y3 is the big unknown.

Let's just say that I'd rather be selling engines for the A350 for delivery in 2017 than for the 747-8.  Wink
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 9:23 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):
EK is a big time GE customer

With A300, A310 and 777. But they've nodded RR's way too with A330s, 777s and A340s. In fact, where there has been a choice, they've preferred RR over GE - on the A330 and 777.

So an engine for EK 787s? Too close to call. I'd toss a coin!
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 9:24 pm

I think that both GE and RR are smart and are playing to there strengths here . i believe that the 787HGW varients would be comming out in the middle of the next decade and GE will definately want to be a strong player in that as those varients woud sell well into the decade after that . The key question is going to be the difference in the engines required for the 787HGW and the XWB-1000 etc and the cost envolved , can a 787-9HGW , 787-10 market sustain profitably 2 manufacterers with redesigned engines ( redesigned/upgraded Genex and Trent) ? Similarly can the A350-1000 market sustain that aswell ? Another thing that needs to be kept in mind would be what boeing is telling the engine makers about a potential 777NG upgrade and a future Y3. The engine makers would know more then we would and if the Y3 requires brand new engines then can GE work and sustain new engine development almost every 5-6 years starting late this decade ? I think that GE would eventually join the XWB team but they are waiting to see if they can get away with presenting the GENEX without many mods and only compete in the -800 , 900 and let RR take the -1000 model while they have a monopoly on the 787-10 and the HGW , which i doubt would be the case however .
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 9:25 pm

Quoting N328KF (Reply 14):
Let's not forget that GE has the 747-8 to supply for, which currently just about numerically negates Rolls' A350 base.

Since GE has exclusive rights on 748, wouldn't most airlines prefer to get 787 with GE for the possibility they might get 748 down the line?
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 9:31 pm

Quoting Amirs (Reply 20):
Since GE has exclusive rights on 748, wouldn't most airlines prefer to get 787 with GE for the possibility they might get 748 down the line?

I'd suspect not many airlines will end up with a need for both the 787 and 747. NW comes to mind, as does JAL & UA, but this combined market isn't that large IMO.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 9:32 pm

Quoting Amirs (Reply 20):
Since GE has exclusive rights on 748, wouldn't most airlines prefer to get 787 with GE for the possibility they might get 748 down the line?

So far 35 airlines have ordered the 787 (excluding those who are only leasing) and not one (not one) has ordered the 747-8. I don't see it being a factor.
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 9:34 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 21):
NW comes to mind

And they've ordered RR Trent 1000s...
 
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Stitch
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 9:37 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):
Lets not forget Airbus has an engine and more then 150 A350XWB's including -1000 ordered.

Yes, and let's not forget that GE had the contract for a good chunk of those 150 planes when they were A350NWEBs ("Not Wide EnoughBodies").

It was Airbus, and not GE that changed the requirements so drastically. And it was this drastic change in requirements that looks to have cost GE a large number of sales.

GE was supporting the A350 before RR was, so I find it rather cheeky for Airbus and Airbus Aficionados to now chastise GE for not immediately launching a new engine program. If the A345/A346 had proven to be more popular, and RR was making some nice coin on the Trent 500, would they have been so quick to move to the XWB?

PM may take issue with the following, but IMO, RR was essentially frozen out of the 300-500 seat market by GE and the 777. And the original A350 wasn't going to get them back into it. They essentially had to wait for the 787HGWs and Y3 to come. The Trent 500 was a money-losing program for them. They'd have done better to bribe GE for a share of the 777 and never gone with the A345/A346.

Also IMO, RR jumped on the XWB because they had no choice. GE does, but only in that while they must support the A350 (unless the 787HGW/Y3 is closer then we think), they do not have to support all three models because GE already effectively owns the 300-500 seat market with the 77W and 747-8I and will continue to do so until 2013 at the earliest. And after 2013 they will be in position to be a strong player on the 787HGW and Y3, both of which will give the A350-1000 a run for her money because most 77W replacement RFPs won't happen until 2020 or later and the A346 has less then 150 sales and the 77W is winning A346 replacement and expansion RFPs now.

The A350-800 and A350-900 will be where the bulk of the action is, if for no other reason then the large existing fleets of A330s and A343s that will make the A350 more appealing. And GE will be there if they can make the GEnx work for less then or equal to $500 million (maybe $1 billion if that is what is needed for the 787HGW, as well). But I don't see them throwing out $2 billion or more for a brand new engine for the A350 unless it will also hang under the A380-800R, A380-900, and Y3.
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 9:44 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 23):
And they've ordered RR Trent 1000s...

Not to debate your point, but in today's MRO environment where engines are can be sold with maintenance contracts, is the "commonality" argument as valid as it once was? Putting on my logistician's hat, it's "intuitively" obvious that buying planes with the same engines achieves economies of scale across the board, or at least that was the case. If NW were to consider the 748, and negotiate a nice maintenance contract from GE, would the lack of commonality on their Trent powered 787s and their GE powered 748s be a deal breaker? Give the advances in information technology--especially the ability to monitor engine performance "on wing", enhanced ability to predict failures, longer mean times between overhaul, etc., how strong is the "commonality" argument these days?
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
keesje
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 10:11 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 18):
Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):
EK is a big time GE customer

With A300, A310 and 777. But they've nodded RR's way too with A330s, 777s and A340s. In fact, where there has been a choice, they've preferred RR over GE - on the A330 and 777.

So an engine for EK 787s? Too close to call. I'd toss a coin!

Also EK ordered 80 GE GENX engines for the 747-8s recently..

Quoting Stitch (Reply 24):
It was Airbus, and not GE that changed the requirements so drastically.

GE is a sub contractor for the A350, Airbus is not a subcontractor for the GENX lets keep things straight..

Quoting Stitch (Reply 24):
GE already effectively owns the 300-500 seat market with the 77W and 747-8I and will continue to do so until 2013 at the earliest.



Quoting Bringiton (Reply 19):
Another thing that needs to be kept in mind would be what boeing is telling the engine makers about a potential 777NG upgrade and a future Y3

GE betting on the 77W, 747-8i and Y3 for the 300-500 seat market for the next decade? I wonder if their shareholders would agree with that strategy ..

RR was offered on the 747, 757, 767, 777 and will join in the 787 party in two days. No indication whatsoever they will be shut out on a Y3..

GE won't sit on their hands, they will somehow move. In the end of the day they simply have to sell engines, not irritating airlines is part of that process.



[Edited 2007-07-05 15:19:33]
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
WINGS
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 10:18 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 18):

With A300, A310 and 777. But they've nodded RR's way too with A330s, 777s and A340s. In fact, where there has been a choice, they've preferred RR over GE - on the A330 and 777.

They also had a choice between the Trent 900 and EA7200, to equip their A380 fleet, yet they went with EA instead of RR  Wink

Regards,
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atmx2000
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 10:19 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 26):
No indication whatsoever they will be shut out on a Y3..

I suspect that if there is a Y3, it will likely be a single engine maker aircraft. Whoever signs up will likely have to invest in the airframe. Since RR has been reluctant to put that money in before, I suspect they won't do so in the future.
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Lumberton
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 10:21 pm

We learned that today Dubai Int'l has purchased a 3.1% stake in EADS, virtually assuring the selection of the A350XWB over the 787. Since EK is known to be a heavy GE customer as Wings noted earlier with the Engine Alliance selection on their A380s, could this also presage a large GE purchase for their A350XWB's, with this order being the launch for a new version of the GENx on the A350?
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
keesje
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 10:28 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 29):
We learned that today Dubai ......a new version of the GENx on the A350?

 checkmark 

or an inbetween solution via an EA GP 7000 derivative ..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
albird87
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 10:28 pm

Dont forget that there are still some big airlines that havent decided what aircraft (787v A350, 748vA380) to choose for their fleet renewal. there is BA who still have to make their desision on which aircraft and also AA waiting to order a massive amount of 787s. Although both these airlines could go each way in engine orders i feel that RR is hoping that when they do order aircraft, they will be the supplier of engines!!

RR has a lot riding on these future orders of some airlines waiting to choose!!
 
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Stitch
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 11:36 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 26):
GE is a sub contractor for the A350, Airbus is not a subcontractor for the GENX lets keep things straight..

Fair enough, but if Airbus wants to play hard-ball, then they need to consider the risks of doing so...

Quoting Keesje (Reply 26):
GE betting on the 77W, 747-8i and Y3 for the 300-500 seat market for the next decade? I wonder if their shareholders would agree with that strategy...

Why not? The 77W continues to sell well and the EIS of the A350-1000 is close to a decade away as-is, which means the majority of customers who need a 300+ seater before 2015 (or later) will continue to choose the 77W just as the majority of customers who need a 300-seat 5000nm model or a 200-seat 7000nm model continue to choose the A330-200 and A330-300 because they cannot get 787s in the necessary timeframe.

RR was offered on the 747, 757, 767, 777 and will join in the 787 party in two days. No indication whatsoever they will be shut out on a Y3.[/quote]

I fully expect RR Trents to be hanging off Y3 wings.

Quote:
GE won't sit on their hands, they will somehow move. In the end of the day they simply have to sell engines, not irritating airlines is part of that process.

Very true, but GE has already been...burned...by Airbus once already. As Airbus is still working out how the A350 will meet the performance guarantees they have attached to it, it remains somewhat of a moving target, just as the 787HGWs are, and GE is trying to develop an engine for them, as well.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 28):
I suspect that if there is a Y3, it will likely be a single engine maker aircraft. Whoever signs up will likely have to invest in the airframe. Since RR has been reluctant to put that money in before, I suspect they won't do so in the future.

RR might have second thoughts about that after the 77L/77W/77F, especially since they were ready to share the market with GE or Pratt (probably because they expected the A345 and A346 to be more competitive and help provide a steady revenue stream).

Quoting Keesje (Reply 30):
...or an inbetween solution via an EA GP 7000 derivative ..

There has been talk of a newer and more advanced GP7000 series to power the A380-900, A380-800R and A380-800F. Such an engine might be advanced enough to hang off the A350.
 
atmx2000
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 11:48 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):
The Emirates have taken a 3% stake in EADS & will order 100 twin aisles in the next few weeks/months.



Quoting Lumberton (Reply 29):
We learned that today Dubai Int'l has purchased a 3.1% stake in EADS, virtually assuring the selection of the A350XWB over the 787.

I would be surprised if they committed to anything before the end of the year. I suppose the argument exists that if they don't sign up quickly they won't get early slots. Maybe they will convince Airbus to bring out the A389 sooner.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 32):
There has been talk of a newer and more advanced GP7000 series to power the A380-900, A380-800R and A380-800F. Such an engine might be advanced enough to hang off the A350.

It seems like a reasonable option. The thing is I don't know what PW has to contribute. Isn't the composite fan tech on the GEnx superior to PW's contribution on the GP7000?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 32):
RR might have second thoughts about that after the 77L/77W/77F, especially since they were ready to share the market with GE or Pratt (probably because they expected the A345 and A346 to be more competitive and help provide a steady revenue stream).

If Y3 ends up being a twin, the engine volumes won't be very high. I don't see a low volume airframe being able to support two vendors. It might be better to get one vendor to maximize efforts on engine development than have two vendors invest less resources because their ROI will be lower.
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Thu Jul 05, 2007 11:57 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 15):
I'm not going to quarrel with that for one minute. But which will be selling at 100-200 a year a decade from now - the 748 or the A350?



Quoting PM (Reply 17):
Let's just say that I'd rather be selling engines for the A350 for delivery in 2017 than for the 747-8.

Don't forget GE gets to sell twice as many engines on the 748 as they would on the A350. And beyond that, they own 100% of this market, whereas optimistically would only get 50% of the A350 orders. This means Airbus needs to sell 4 times as many A350 compared to the 748 to tip the number scale for GE

Will Airbus be selling 4 times as many A350s in 2017 compared to the 748? Maybe, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it. The 777 / 787 / A350 / A330 / A340 / Y3 is a very competitive market right now and will certainly continue to be. Selling 100-200 A350 aircraft in 2017 is possible, but may be a bit optimistic. On the other hand, the 748 will likely go unchallenged for its size in the freighter market and selling 25-50 in 2017 may not be all that unreasonable.
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Fri Jul 06, 2007 12:01 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 25):
If NW were to consider the 748, and negotiate a nice maintenance contract from GE, would the lack of commonality on their Trent powered 787s and their GE powered 748s be a deal breaker?

Couldn't agree more. (Hence a BA order for 748s with GE and 787s with RR is entirely credible.) But I was responding to the argument that airlines will choose GE on the 787 in case they want to order the 748 down the line. I don't see it.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 26):
Also EK ordered 80 GE GENX engines for the 747-8s recently..

Where they had a choice between the GEnx and... er ... ?

Quoting WINGS (Reply 27):
They also had a choice between the Trent 900 and EA7200, to equip their A380 fleet, yet they went with EA instead of RR

I still believe that RR's success at EK cost them that deal. EK hadn't yet ordered 777Ws so would have had a fleet of A330 (RR), 777 (RR), A340 (RR) and A380 (RR). It's long been my contention that EK want to keep Airbus, Boeing, GE and RR on their toes and they spread around the orders. Hence I smell an EK order for A350s with RR next!

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 29):
Since EK is known to be a heavy GE customer

Will you guys STOP IT?! Where was the GE order for A330s or 777-200s or 777-200ERs or 777-300s?! And don't forget that GE was the sitting tennant with EK's fleet of A300s and A310s when the airline opted (twice!) for RR.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 32):
Fair enough, but if Airbus wants to play hard-ball, then they need to consider the risks of doing so...

It works both ways. GE have seemingly just lost significant orders from Qatar, US Airways, TAM, etc. ...
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Fri Jul 06, 2007 12:41 am

Hi Keesje,

Quoting Keesje (Reply 4):
RR doing ~50% on 787 and 100% on A350XWB.

Boeing sees more then 6000 twin aisles for the next 20 yrs. http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/images/lg_highlights_cmo07.gif

Luckely GE is protecting it's interest on the 777/GE90.

Smart business decision.

You sound a bit bitter my friend. Dont be. The 350v3 will sell like a lot so who cares if those pesky folks from Ohio are on board or not. Besides there were a couple of people saying (not suggesting) that GE did not have the technical prowess to develop an engine for the mighty mighty 350v3. So perhaps they are right and so like I said who cares if the GE folks have decided to drop out all together from the Airlininer propulsion bussiness. Just watch those orders for panels come in (they already have- your guys had a very good airshow) and dont worry!

Peace!

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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Fri Jul 06, 2007 1:01 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 33):
If Y3 ends up being a twin, the engine volumes won't be very high. I don't see a low volume airframe being able to support two vendors. It might be better to get one vendor to maximize efforts on engine development than have two vendors invest less resources because their ROI will be lower.

I wonder if Y3 will really be that low in sales. I mean Boeing and Airbus both say 6000 birds in the next 20 years. Yet when you add in every A300, A310, A330, and A340 you are right at 1900. And every 767 and 777 comes to 1974 (including freighters). There are 574 744s, but a third of those have already been earmarked for replacement by A388s and 748s.

I think Y3 could easily be a 1000-1500 frame seller, which should be enough for GE and RR to share, especially if they can leverage that engine family technology across the A350 and A380, plus perhaps 787HGWs.

Quoting PM (Reply 35):
It works both ways. GE have seemingly just lost significant orders from Qatar, US Airways, TAM, etc. ...

Orders they had with the original A350...

I wonder just how "firm" those RR orders are... If the original GE A350 customers wrote into their RR contracts the ability to cancel if GE comes in with an engine, that might influence GE's decision...
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Fri Jul 06, 2007 1:58 am

Don't foget that when an engine maker says they sold 500 units, that is 250 airplanes. Plus, it is not unheard of for airlines to order spare engines for their fleets, so it can be a hard guess as to who gets what.

Looking forward to the rollout....
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Fri Jul 06, 2007 3:38 am

Why is RR doing so much better in 787 engine orders than GE? Is one engine superior to the other in objective data?
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Fri Jul 06, 2007 3:49 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):
Wait & See = loosing market share.

In this situation it is protecting your shareholders when dealing with a company known for it's inability to make up it's mind.

GE is the most diversified company in the world, and the best run, IMO. It's more about return on investment than loosing a few % of the market, which will not happen. There is plenty of room for both.

[Edited 2007-07-05 20:52:42]
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Fri Jul 06, 2007 3:51 am

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 39):
Why is RR doing so much better in 787 engine orders than GE? Is one engine superior to the other in objective data?

IMO, because at this time they offer a better product.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Fri Jul 06, 2007 3:58 am

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 39):
Why is RR doing so much better in 787 engine orders than GE? Is one engine superior to the other in objective data?

Actually, I believe GE has a pretty strong lead over RR on the 787 at the moment.

It has been explained to me that the GE offers slightly better fuel burn (around 2%) on longer stage lengths thanks to running higher pressure.

Oddly enough, I believe 2% is about the fuel burn advantage the Trent XWB has on the GEnx on the A350...
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Fri Jul 06, 2007 4:05 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 26):
GE betting on the 77W, 747-8i and Y3 for the 300-500 seat market for the next decade? I wonder if their shareholders would agree with that strategy ..

I do.  checkmark 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Fri Jul 06, 2007 4:40 am

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 39):
Why is RR doing so much better in 787 engine orders than GE? Is one engine superior to the other in objective data?

For "announced" 787 orders, GE has sold twice as many engines as RR. Even if you include RR's claim to having won orders for over 500 engines, this still puts them behind GE. GE already has 600 "announced" engine orders for the 787.
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Fri Jul 06, 2007 5:48 am

Howdy Keesje!!

Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):
Wait & See = loosing market share.

Does this mantra apply to airline manufacturers too? By golly I think it does!

Peace

Elvis777
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Fri Jul 06, 2007 6:50 am

Hi folks how many additional 777s do we think Boeing will sell in the coming years & to who?

200, 300, more ?  crossfingers  How many will be GE, PW and RR powered?

Of course GE can wait a few years until they think Airbus made up their mind..

Problem is the airlines don´t.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Fri Jul 06, 2007 7:30 am

Howdy Keesje,

Why do you think GE has decided not to put a driver on the 350v3 wing? If the case is self evident that the 350v3 (panels and all) will be a success then why are they not jumping in? Or maybe the case of panels being a success vis a vis the barrel approach is not self evident..... When is v3 1000 coming online, say 2016 (I know most people think 15 but hey lets just give it an extra year cus one never knows). Well that is a lot of years between now and then (something like 9 or so) so lots of time to sell a bunch of junky 777!!!!!! And what is the development cycle for a Boeing bird? Call it 4-5 years (a couple less than eads right). So the 797 (for example) the replacement for the 350 might come online right around when?

Since we are assuming that the 350v3 will far surpass the 777 (given that the design is not yet frozen. or is it? I forget?... well lets say it is not for the moment) we can then say that y3 will far surpass the v3!!!


well just some rambling speculation as to why GE is not jumping in on the 350v3 just yet......I mean a billion dollars is a billion R&D dollars right? That kind of loose change is not thrown around just for laughs, I mean the business case must be compelling don�t you think?

So my theory as to why GE is not jumping on the v3 wagons is two fold:

1: like some other a.net member have suggested, GE does not have the technical prowess or wherewithal to design a driver for the v3. Yeah that must be it! I agree with that. I mean after all Eads must have given GE loads of info on the v3 and they always meet their goals.... so the business case must be very compelling. Only way is that GE just cannot design a decent fan for this bird.....

Makes sense.

Peace

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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Fri Jul 06, 2007 7:35 am

Quoting PM (Thread starter):
Including business won but not yet announced, orders have been placed for over 500 Trent 1000 engines by 15 operators and four leasing companies.

I'm very curious as to how many are firm orders versus options.

Hey, if EK steps into the 787 game...  Wink  duck   flamed 

Quoting Amirs (Reply 20):
Since GE has exclusive rights on 748, wouldn't most airlines prefer to get 787 with GE for the possibility they might get 748 down the line?

Ummm... most airlines would know ahead of time if they're looking into VLA. Its more likely to pair a 788 with an A359.  Wink Its a big jump to go 787 to 748... Most airlines shouldn't do it.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 28):
I suspect that if there is a Y3, it will likely be a single engine maker aircraft.

I'm divided on this. An exclusive engine simplifies flight testing, certification, and EIS. However, having two engines a la 787 seems a better idea. Boeing wanted two engines on the 77W. But Pratt and GE both insisted on exclusives... so it didn't matter than RR was willing to share...

Quoting Stitch (Reply 42):
It has been explained to me that the GE offers slightly better fuel burn (around 2%) on longer stage lengths thanks to running higher pressure.

Oddly enough, I believe 2% is about the fuel burn advantage the Trent XWB has on the GEnx on the A350...

I wonder how long that fuel burn advantage will last. RR should upgrade (e.g., compressor) the Trents for the 789/787-10.


If RR wins a bunch more orders, it will be very interesting... I hope they do well.
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RE: Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?

Fri Jul 06, 2007 8:01 am

Quoting Elvis777 (Reply 47):
Why do you think GE has decided not to put a driver on the 350v3 wing? If the case is self evident that the 350v3 (panels and all) will be a success then why are they not jumping in?



Quoting Elvis777 (Reply 47):
So my theory as to why GE is not jumping on the v3 wagons is two fold:

Hi Elvis you obviously missed some news, it´s a bit different then you think.

GE is not willing to build an engine for the A350-1000 because they want to protect the 777 / GE90.


Roger Seager, GE vice president of sales, who was in Everett for the 777 delivery, emphasized how closely aligned Boeing and GE are in the large wide-body market.

"There is an agreement on how we'll use the GE90 engine, and that ties us to the Boeing 777," said Seager, "It is a partnership. ... We've literally shared jointly in the airframe and the engine."

When Airbus announced in July its proposal to develop a 350-seater A350 to go head to head with the 365-seater 777-300ER, GE made clear it wouldn't provide an engine for that largest A350 model. That stance remains solid, though Airbus' plans on the A350 have shifted.

"We're protecting our investment," said Seager. "Why would we want to go and participate with another product that would compete directly?"

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm....echnology/2003452451_boeing29.htm

Then they also excluded the EA GP7000.
http://www.airliners.net/discussions...general_aviation/read.main/3434937

I don´t know what they are telling customers that are ordering A350-900/1000s, probably to buy 777s.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway

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