NYC777
Topic Author
Posts: 5083
Joined: Wed Jun 09, 2004 3:00 am

787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 2:28 am

I don't have alink but there was a headline on Bloomberg where Mike Bair is quoted as saying that the 787 production slots are sold out through 2015.

Assuming that Boeing delivers 112 787 in 2008 to end of 2009 and then produces 10 x 787 per months in 2010 through 2015, that's 120 per year for 6 years or a total of 832 787s to be delivered by the end of 2015.

Boeing has announced orders for 642 787 meaning they have orders for another 190 787s.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23504
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 2:36 am

Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):
Boeing has announced orders for 642 787 meaning they have orders for another 190 787s.

Or slot reservations for that many...

Still, a nice position to be in.  thumbsup 
 
NYC777
Topic Author
Posts: 5083
Joined: Wed Jun 09, 2004 3:00 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 2:39 am

I just wish that there would be more announcements made. I'm sure there are going to be a slew of option/purchase right conversions to be made as well.

FYI, in the same press conference, Mike Bair also said that everything is still on track for first flight in late August or early September and first delivery in May, 2008.

[Edited 2007-07-06 19:46:16]
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
DLPMMM
Posts: 2137
Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2005 12:34 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 2:57 am

Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):
Boeing has announced orders for 642 787 meaning they have orders for another 190 787s.

That sounds like about the right amount to cover for their 2 "most favored nation" customers that have not yet ordered (AA and DL) plus some outstanding options from current customers.

Interesting tidbit.
 
PolymerPlane
Posts: 832
Joined: Thu May 11, 2006 1:12 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 2:59 am

That's probably including options? IIRC options secure production slots until one or two years before delivery.

Cheers,
PP
One day there will be 100% polymer plane
 
NYC777
Topic Author
Posts: 5083
Joined: Wed Jun 09, 2004 3:00 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 3:00 am

That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
andessmf
Posts: 5689
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2006 8:53 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 3:16 am

The articles seems pretty clear about Boeing claiming:

"A brand-new customer would be looking at delivery in about 2015 assuming we don't do something with additional rate capacity"

That seems to indicate at least negotiations in progress with other airlines regarding the 787.

Appears as if other UFO airlines have reserved the production slots, but not made a full order, yet.
 
RDUDDJI
Posts: 1717
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2004 4:42 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 3:23 am

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 6):
That seems to indicate at least negotiations in progress with other airlines regarding the 787.

True, I was in a meeting with one of UA's senior officers who was asked if UA had waited too long too order the 787 due to the orderbook filling up...He had a great response when he said, "United is one of Boeing's largest and oldest customers, if United decides to order 787's (and cannot wait until 2015), Boeing will find a way to accommodate us."

The order book may be sold out publicly...but if a large customer (DL, AA, most likely) were to order the 787 tomorrow, I'm sure Boeing would get them frames...
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
NYC777
Topic Author
Posts: 5083
Joined: Wed Jun 09, 2004 3:00 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 3:24 am

I've been hearing that Qatar will announce their 787 order this weekend. Can anyone confirm.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
Boston92
Posts: 2553
Joined: Wed Aug 09, 2006 6:56 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 3:30 am

Is there any way/chance any carrier such as UA/DL/AA could cut a deal with Boeing to order a large amount of aircraft, but have a delivery date before 2015 (a.k.a cut in line)?
"Why does a slight tax increase cost you $200 and a substantial tax cut save you 30 cents?"
 
NYC777
Topic Author
Posts: 5083
Joined: Wed Jun 09, 2004 3:00 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 3:32 am

Quoting Boston92 (Reply 9):
Is there any way/chance any carrier such as UA/DL/AA could cut a deal with Boeing to order a large amount of aircraft, but have a delivery date before 2015 (a.k.a cut in line)?

Absolutely, I think it's a near certainty that something like that will happen for AA/DL/UA, BA, and AF/KL. If EK comes in for 100 787 you could count on Boeing to get a few spaces for them around 2013 for the 787-10.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
United777
Posts: 2196
Joined: Wed May 19, 1999 8:04 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 3:39 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 8):
I've been hearing that Qatar will announce their 787 order this weekend. Can anyone confirm.

It's possible!! I live in area where there are alot of Boeing employees and many of them are managers. I was out in my backyard last night and one of them was doing a BBQ with family and I overheard him talking about Boeing's orders this year and said "yea there are more lined up tomorrow and this weekend" I don't know for sure where the guy gets his information and what he does at Boeing. Oman Air did order two 737-800s today so I guess he was kind of right about an order today. Not too big of an order though.
 
columba
Posts: 5055
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2004 10:12 pm

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 3:44 am

When will the first A350s be available ? If other airlines can not and would not like to wait.
Maybe this is a good chance for Airbus to sell the one or other A350 or A330, too.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
aminobwana
Posts: 923
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2007 7:32 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 3:45 am

Quoting RDUDDJI (Reply 7):
True, I was in a meeting with one of UA's senior officers who was asked if UA had waited too long too order the 787 due to the orderbook filling up...He had a great response when he said, "United is one of Boeing's largest and oldest customers, if United decides to order 787's (and cannot wait until 2015), Boeing will find a way to accommodate us."

The order book may be sold out publicly...but if a large customer (DL, AA, most likely) were to order the 787 tomorrow, I'm sure Boeing would get them frames...



Quoting NYC777 (Reply 10):
Absolutely, I think it's a near certainty that something like that will happen for AA/DL/UA, BA, and AF/KL. If EK comes in for 100 787 you could count on Boeing to get a few spaces for them around 2013 for the 787-10.

Aside of the said in the quotes, the title "B787 is sold out through 2015 !!

More accurately, it should say "if Boeing doesn't increase production, the B787 would be sold out through 2015" !!

regards

aminobwana
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23504
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 3:46 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 8):
I've been hearing that Qatar will announce their 787 order this weekend. Can anyone confirm.

Can't confirm it, but I feel it is likely based on information I have received.
 
NYC777
Topic Author
Posts: 5083
Joined: Wed Jun 09, 2004 3:00 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 3:50 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
Can't confirm it, but I feel it is likely based on information I have received.

Any idea of when the announcement will be made (today, Saturday or Sunday)?

Ok although I can't confirm I'm hearing that an announcement might be made on Sunday regarding QR's 787 order.

[Edited 2007-07-06 20:54:34]
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
ZKOJH
Posts: 1463
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:51 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 3:57 am

NZ will take another 8 frames in around the 2013 period, which will bring their total to 16 aircraft.
Vietnam time..
 
NYC777
Topic Author
Posts: 5083
Joined: Wed Jun 09, 2004 3:00 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 4:06 am

Quoting Zkojh (Reply 16):
NZ will take another 8 frames in around the 2013 period, which will bring their total to 16 aircraft.

Is that a done deal? When will that announcement be made?
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
User avatar
ER757
Posts: 2514
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:16 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 4:16 am

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 6):
"A brand-new customer would be looking at delivery in about 2015 assuming we don't do something with additional rate capacity

Sounds to me as if they are still considering opening a 2nd line. If they get large orders from the likes of AA, UA, DL etc, the demand would certainly be there. I think the question would be whether suppliers would be able to furnish the components in sufficient quantity to keep two lines going.
 
brendows
Posts: 801
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 4:55 pm

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 4:20 am

Quoting ER757 (Reply 18):
Sounds to me as if they are still considering opening a 2nd line.

I highly doubt that. They don't need a second production, not unless they are going to produce 180-200+ 787s per year. The limitation will be the subcontractors, not the final assembly line.
 
atmx2000
Posts: 4301
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:24 pm

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 4:22 am

Quoting Columba (Reply 12):
When will the first A350s be available ? If other airlines can not and would not like to wait.
Maybe this is a good chance for Airbus to sell the one or other A350 or A330, too.

The A330 would be too outdated by 2012-15 for many airlines to consider major purchases. And there will likely be plenty of used frames on the market.

Anyway I fully expect Boeing to increase capacity if the demand remains strong. I think they have to if they want to make a -10, as their capacity is strained already with just two principal models.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
MCIGuy
Posts: 1445
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2006 8:15 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 4:25 am

I think they're just waiting for the suppliers to get their ducks in a row. It might take a couple of years for them to hit their stride and time is on theirs and Boeing's side. Obviously any increase is in the hands of the suppliers and I think you will see it but not till around 2010 or so. For what it's worth.... Smile
Airliners.net Moderator Team
 
caetravlr
Posts: 859
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 8:19 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 4:29 am

Quoting Brendows (Reply 19):
highly doubt that. They don't need a second production, not unless they are going to produce 180-200+ 787s per year. The limitation will be the subcontractors, not the final assembly line.

I was thinking the same thing. Even if the subcontractors can crank out all of the major components fast enough to ramp up production, it still won't matter unless those little fasteners are available to piece it all together. Didn't I read somewhere that even the one that is being rolled out this weekend only had temporary fasteners while waiting on the real ones to get there to replace them?
A woman drove me to drink and I didn't have the decency to thank her. - W.C. Fields
 
NYC777
Topic Author
Posts: 5083
Joined: Wed Jun 09, 2004 3:00 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 4:32 am

Quoting Caetravlr (Reply 22):
I was thinking the same thing. Even if the subcontractors can crank out all of the major components fast enough to ramp up production, it still won't matter unless those little fasteners are available to piece it all together. Didn't I read somewhere that even the one that is being rolled out this weekend only had temporary fasteners while waiting on the real ones to get there to replace them?

Currently ZA001 has to have 1000 temporary fasteners which will probably be replaced in the coming one week.

Boeing won't do a rate increase until 2011 at the earliest.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
boeingfever777
Posts: 1990
Joined: Tue Jul 28, 2009 1:35 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 4:46 am

Must be all those holds for DL, AA, and EK.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHXhwGNZKWD8
More good 787 news!
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
 
andessmf
Posts: 5689
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2006 8:53 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 4:48 am

I would not doubt that Boeing has reserved slots for the big US airlines and other customers. It is easy to reserve them now and jiggle the schedule as conditions change.

After all, it would be a safe bet that US airlines will order large quantities of 787s, only a question of 'when'.
 
B777ER
Posts: 431
Joined: Mon Jun 21, 2004 3:35 pm

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 5:15 am

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 24):

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...ZKWD8

It mentions an order from DL for a single 777...is this a new one on top of what they already have on order?
 
Shenzhen
Posts: 1664
Joined: Wed Jun 25, 2003 12:11 pm

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 5:33 am

2015 is a long long long ways away. Boeing has considerable wiggle room in those 8 years. There is little doubt that they will double book quite a few of those delivery positions (say after 3 plus years out) then manage them. If everyone still wants their slots, increase production.

Cheers
 
atmx2000
Posts: 4301
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:24 pm

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 5:46 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 33):
I am quite confident that Boeing is not going to risk snafu-ing the production line. Better to deliver X planes per month, every month, and lose Y sales due to lack of availability then try and force A+B, muff it up, and end up delivering C planes where C is less then A, much less A+B, and risk losing not only B, but also D firm orders to competitors.

While it may be ok to leave something on the table in a given market if you are already participating in it, it may not be a wise idea to abandon a segment of the market for an extended period of time. By not boosting production, Boeing may very well be unable to service the 300 pax market, as existing products have snatched up production slots well beyond proposed EIS dates for a 787-10.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
LH506
Posts: 246
Joined: Sun May 06, 2007 9:48 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 5:48 am

Quoting Zkojh (Reply 16):
NZ will take another 8 frames in around the 2013 period, which will bring their total to 16 aircraft

Is this the UFO from March for 8 787s or a new order?
NOT FLOWN: 707 736/9 77L 788 300B2 300B4 345 359 RJ70/146-100 F27 ATR72 CRJ1/4/10 E120/135/40 Q1/2/3 M87
 
NYC777
Topic Author
Posts: 5083
Joined: Wed Jun 09, 2004 3:00 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 5:51 am

Quoting LH506 (Reply 29):
Is this the UFO from March for 8 787s or a new order?

Hasn't been announced yet so we'll have to see.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
EA772LR
Posts: 1285
Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2007 2:18 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 7:22 am

So is it feasible then that we will see 1000 orders for the 787 before EIS??  crossfingers 
We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23504
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 7:30 am

Quoting EA772LR (Reply 31):
So is it feasible then that we will see 1000 orders for the 787 before EIS??  crossfingers 

Could be. Orders are likely to pick up in Q4-2007 and Q1-2008 as the plane completes it's testing (assuming it all goes well), but unless Boeing is prepared to put forward an increased production schedule, we may see airlines wait a bit to see how the A350 firms up in Q4-2008.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 9086
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 7:49 am

Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):
Mike Bair is quoted as saying that the 787 production slots are sold out through 2015.

Undeniable good news .. and bad news.

Must top 20 Airlines like BA, UA, EK, AA, LH, AF, CX, KLM and DL wait for 8 yrs to start possible introduction?
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23504
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 7:54 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 33):
Must top 20 Airlines like BA, UA, EK, AA, LH, AF, CX, KLM and DL wait for 8 yrs to start possible introduction?

They're looking at close to that for the A350, as well, as orders for that family are converted and signed, so I suppose whichever they choose they're going to have to wait...
 
ua76heavy
Posts: 41
Joined: Sun Apr 08, 2007 7:37 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 7:59 am

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 25):
I would not doubt that Boeing has reserved slots for the big US airlines and other customers. It is easy to reserve them now and jiggle the schedule as conditions change.

Better yet, I'll bet some majors have already put deposits down for slots. These won't show up as orders.
 
User avatar
United787
Posts: 2231
Joined: Fri May 20, 2005 12:20 pm

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 8:04 am

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 3):
That sounds like about the right amount to cover for their 2 "most favored nation" customers that have not yet ordered (AA and DL) plus some outstanding options from current customers.

What about United.

Quoting UA76Heavy (Reply 35):
Better yet, I'll bet some majors have already put deposits down for slots. These won't show up as orders.

I bet you are right, I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing is holding slots for them without deposits also.
 
columba
Posts: 5055
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2004 10:12 pm

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 8:12 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 33):
Must top 20 Airlines like BA, UA, EK, AA, LH, AF, CX, KLM and DL wait for 8 yrs to start possible introduction?

I think AA, UA and DL are in a much bigger need to replace their 767s with 787s then EK, LH, AF, KLM that have a fairly new fleet of A330, A340s or 777s.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Crew
Posts: 12051
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 8:59 am

The "little fasteners" won't be a problem soon. The issue is Boeing needs 20 of one and 100 of another for prototype #1. Fastener makers like to make 10,000+ of each type (its cheaper). So once the warehouse is stocked, all will be well. This is just a case of taking "just in time" too literally.

Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):
787 production slots are sold out through 2015.

 checkmark  A good thing for Boeing and an opportunity for Airbus.

The reality is Boeing can increase production. As soon as they put $2 Billion down on the table, it takes less than 18 months to build the additional fiber plant capacity. Vendors can hire and train techs in that time. So by 2009, we could have much faster 787 production...

Except for Titanium. Right now all of aerospace is hurting from the worldwide titanium shortage. Production is increasing... but prices must go up further to justify more plant investment. Since the *only* place will enough raw titanium is Russia... its not going to be regular market economics determining the supply.

However, there is always substitution. Alcoa is trying hard to prove to Boeing that their latest alloys of Aluminum-Lithium can replace titanium. Since the single heaviest pieces of titanium in the 787 are the landing gear bays... that is where they are starting. I hope it works. Not only would it cut costs per airframe, but if there is 25% less titanium needed per airframe, that implies that the 112 airframes/year goes up to about 150.  spin 

B

Quoting Keesje (Reply 33):

Undeniable good news .. and bad news.

Must top 20 Airlines like BA, UA, EK, AA, LH, AF, CX, KLM and DL wait for 8 yrs to start possible introduction?

You make a good point. That is 8 major airlines locked out of the Boeing camp if they cannot be accommodated. (AF/KLM counts as one in my book...). Even a production boost of 40/year wouldn't be enough to secure every large order.

If Airbus gets smart with the A350... it could be a horse race. (e.g., implement partial vertical integration to cut module costs, etc.)

This is analogous to the Boeing 247 where if you weren't UA, you had to wait for your planes. By the time slots opened up... The DC-1/2/3 quickly came to own the market. Now... the 787 is too mature to be locked out as the 247 was after the DC-3 went into mass production. And Douglass was smart... so many for AA, so many for (ironically) UA, so many for TWA, so many for Eastern... and enough production growth room to add KLM, etc.

So how much is it worth it to lock out a competitor?

http://www.nasm.si.edu/research/aero/aircraft/douglas_dc3.htm

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 28):
By not boosting production, Boeing may very well be unable to service the 300 pax market, as existing products have snatched up production slots well beyond proposed EIS dates for a 787-10.

 checkmark 

Effectively, the 787 has evolved to cover two market spaces (788, 789, 787-10). Time to market is always a criteria...

It will be interesting.

I think Boeing has a lot of hard work ahead to increase production and get the 789 out too. But let me be clear, this is a very "classy problem" to have.  bigthumbsup 

Lightsaber
"They did not know it was impossible, so they did it!" - Mark Twain
 
Alitalia744
Posts: 3777
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 8:22 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 9:06 am

Quoting B777ER (Reply 26):
It mentions an order from DL for a single 777...is this a new one on top of what they already have on order?

yes. technically.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 33):
Must top 20 Airlines like BA, UA, EK, AA, LH, AF, CX, KLM and DL wait for 8 yrs to start possible introduction?

Keesje, a few of those airlines won't have to.
Some see lines, others see between the lines.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23504
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 9:13 am

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 38):
Except for Titanium. Right now all of aerospace is hurting from the worldwide titanium shortage. Production is increasing... but prices must go up further to justify more plant investment. Since the *only* place will enough raw titanium is Russia... its not going to be regular market economics determining the supply.

Boeing has locked up a number of large and long-term contracts with Russian Ti producers, so they are at least trying to secure that.

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 38):
However, there is always substitution. Alcoa is trying hard to prove to Boeing that their latest alloys of Aluminum-Lithium can replace titanium. Since the single heaviest pieces of titanium in the 787 are the landing gear bays... that is where they are starting. I hope it works. Not only would it cut costs per airframe, but if there is 25% less titanium needed per airframe, that implies that the 112 airframes/year goes up to about 150.

Yup. The Seattle Times had a good article about Boeing and Alcoa few months back.
 
flybyguy
Posts: 1415
Joined: Sun Jun 27, 2004 12:52 pm

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 9:14 am

Quoting RDUDDJI (Reply 7):
The order book may be sold out publicly...but if a large customer (DL, AA, most likely) were to order the 787 tomorrow, I'm sure Boeing would get them frames...

From where though? Unless Boeing financially compensated some smaller carriers to give up a delivery or two in favour of a later one.

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 38):
You make a good point. That is 8 major airlines locked out of the Boeing camp if they cannot be accommodated. (AF/KLM counts as one in my book...). Even a production boost of 40/year wouldn't be enough to secure every large order.

If Airbus gets smart with the A350... it could be a horse race. (e.g., implement partial vertical integration to cut module costs, etc.)

This is analogous to the Boeing 247 where if you weren't UA, you had to wait for your planes. By the time slots opened up... The DC-1/2/3 quickly came to own the market. Now... the 787 is too mature to be locked out as the 247 was after the DC-3 went into mass production. And Douglass was smart... so many for AA, so many for (ironically) UA, so many for TWA, so many for Eastern... and enough production growth room to add KLM, etc.

So how much is it worth it to lock out a competitor?

This is an excellent point. Perhaps Airbus may not be out of the running yet. If they can iron out the kinks in the A350 program and get the plane ready by 2011 or so then perhaps some companies will select the A350. By then, I suppose the A350 would be one up on the 787, that's if Airbus tries to best the 787 on range, economy, and reliability. Then again GE said at some point that they would never supply Airbus with their new bleedless engines... so besting the 787 might be a very steep uphill fight.
"Are you a pretender... or a thoroughbred?!" - Professor Matt Miller
 
cloudy
Posts: 1613
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2002 3:23 pm

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 9:22 am

I thought that the availability of production slots was a closely guarded secret. The reason being, an airframer is willing to go further to accomodate some customers than others. Boeing cannot afford to show its hand during the dealmaking process. The guy probably meant that the earliest announced, available to anyone slots would be in 2015.

As for A-Li as a substitute for titanium, how much heavier would it have to be to do the same job?

Another question.....are there any issues with CFRP supplies if Boeing increases production?
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23504
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 9:23 am

Quoting Flybyguy (Reply 41):
From where though? Unless Boeing financially compensated some smaller carriers to give up a delivery or two in favour of a later one.

Boeing might be holding some slots for their larger customers, but I imagine they'd have to be "handshake deals" since if any money changed hands, it would need to be reported. Boeing could use these slots for actual orders at very favorable (to Boeing) prices by "magically finding a slot" for those airlines who want only a few frames.

Also, as the 787-10 comes into play around 2013, chances are airlines with 787-9 slots prior to that date may decide to shift over, opening up those slots. Boeing may already have agreements with some airlines holding 787-9 slots prior to 2013 who would be interested in moving them out fort 787-10s, instead.
 
atmx2000
Posts: 4301
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:24 pm

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 9:38 am

Quoting Flybyguy (Reply 41):
This is an excellent point. Perhaps Airbus may not be out of the running yet. If they can iron out the kinks in the A350 program and get the plane ready by 2011 or so then perhaps some companies will select the A350. By then, I suppose the A350 would be one up on the 787, that's if Airbus tries to best the 787 on range, economy, and reliability.

So you think it is even remotely possible they can be early by 2 yrs? That dope you must be smoking must be good stuff?

Quote:
Then again GE said at some point that they would never supply Airbus with their new bleedless engines... so besting the 787 might be a very steep uphill fight.

??? GE never said anything of the sort. Airbus doesn't want bleedless engines. And GE has been eager to provide them GEnx derivatives.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 40):
Yup. The Seattle Times had a good article about Boeing and Alcoa few months back.

Do you have a link?
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 8560
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 10:27 am

MHI and KHI have been preparing for the regular production schedule and extensive modifications to the LCF loading area and apron extension are under way at NGO. Last weekend I did some shooting and got a shot of the LCF area for all to see:

http://www.pbase.com/cityflyer/image/81595751/original.jpg
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23504
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 11:16 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 44):
Do you have a link?

Indeed I do - http://archives.seattletimes.nwsourc...6&date=20070526&query=boeing+alcoa

It's the May 26, 2007 issue.
 
Observer
Posts: 46
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2007 6:18 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 12:40 pm

Boeing will be at 10/mo production by 12/09 when the 112th 787 is delivered. Company has said it is considering boosting production from 2011; past statements have indicated 14/mo or 16/mo under consideration, but all depends on supply chain.

Lessors could provide deliveries to UA, AA, DL and others if necessary, but previous posters are correct that Boeing also reserves delivery slots for such airlines. Also, Boeing (and Airbus) double-book sales with the expectation that some orders will not be consummated; or rescheduled, depending on market conditions; or failed/troubled airlines or orders placed by "marginal" carriers that might not find financing. Of course, as with airliner over-booking, it becomes a problem when everyone actually wants the airplane. Current customers are already being offered premiums by Boeing and Airbus to give up their delivery slots for other customers.
 
DLPMMM
Posts: 2137
Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2005 12:34 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 12:45 pm

Quoting Alitalia744 (Reply 39):
Quoting Keesje (Reply 33):
Must top 20 Airlines like BA, UA, EK, AA, LH, AF, CX, KLM and DL wait for 8 yrs to start possible introduction?

Keesje, a few of those airlines won't have to.

Alitalia744 was right about the 6th DL 777-200 LR several months ago, I won't doubt him on this one.
 
2175301
Posts: 817
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 11:19 am

RE: 787 Sold Out Through 2015

Sat Jul 07, 2007 1:01 pm

My feeling is that Boeing will announce an increase in production about the same time as the 787 passes all certifications and starts rolling out the door to the customers. If necessary Boeing will fund additional industrial capacity.

I also know that Boeing now forecast twice as many 787 sales as they initially forecast, and they have to be figuring out how they are going to produce them.

I would expect the new production line, ** if they need one, to start up in the 2010-2011 time-frame which gives the suppliers time to get their production of the existing orders down pat.... and then they expand production. I would expect the production expansion to go slow and it might take another year or two to double production from the normal rate if that is the level Boeing needs.

** There has been a lot of discussion on previous threads on how many planes can be assembled in a month on the existing production line. There is sufficient evidence that when working with prefabbed modules in a balanced assembly 4 station assembly line that Boeing may be able to handle a lot more than 10 787 per month from a single line (with some speculation up to close to 30 per month from the line). In reality no one will probably know what is likely possible for a production rate from the line until 100 to 200 planes have been built. So lets just wait and see what is possible, and how Boeing handles their order situation. Even if they can move to 15 planes a month it would have a major impact.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos