b777a340fan
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Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 9:54 pm

With the recent rollout of the 787 by Boeing, I was wondering if Airbus had the means to try to get the A350 out before schedule, ultimately to be more competitive with the 787. 2012 is still waaaay out and Boeing may be even further ahead once the A350 is introduced. What do ya'll think?
 
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Stitch
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 9:56 pm

If Airbus can do so, I expect them to do so.
 
EI321
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 9:57 pm

As things stand, there is no indication that the A350 will enter service before its current date of 2013.
 
scouseflyer
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 10:03 pm

It's a shame that it won't be early but that'd be somewhat unlikly - what large industrial programme ever is?
 
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par13del
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 10:33 pm

Why, what reason exist for this to happen? How many customers of the initial version of the A350 switched to the B-787? Airbus is looking to produce a better a/c than the B-787, their customers have already shown them that they will wait for their product, so Airbus has the time leverage to see how the B-787 performs and improve the A350 to be a much better product. The a.net wisdom already has it that the A350 will make the B-777 obsolete, so how much damage will the A350 do to a B-787 that is already 5-6 years old when the A350 goes into service?

The A380 is presently Airbus big show, going into service later this year, let see how that goes first then move on to the A350.
 
scouseflyer
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 10:36 pm

Quoting Par13del (Reply 5):
Why, what reason exist for this to happen?

That most of us on A net will be really bored waiting another 6 years for this baby to EIS  Big grin
 
NAV20
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 10:39 pm

VERY good question, B777A340Fan!

On the face of it it's difficult to see why six years is required to develop the A350. Boeing issued 'authority to offer' the 787 in late 2003, and (barring glitches) they show every sign of achieving their aim of getting it into service by mid-2008 - i.e. in less than five years. That's notwithstanding the advanced technologies they had to develop and the unique manufacturing network they had to build. On the face of it the A350 will be a more conventional design, a lot more of the manufacturing will be 'in-house,' and they've already had a lot of time to carry out preliminary design work.

And in commercial terms the obvious thing to do is to 'fast-track' it. Aiming for 2013 doesn't just allow a lot of time for the 787 horse to gallop out of sight; it ALSO gives Boeing a lot of time to upgrade the 777 to keep it as competitive as possible.

[Edited 2007-07-10 16:08:27]
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
VirginFlyer
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 11:10 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 7):
On the face of it it's difficult to see why six years is required to develop the A350

A couple of thoughts - one, they may not be able to get the wheels turning properly until the Power 8 reforms are implemented... Also, perhaps the length of the development time indicates that the A350 won't be the only project under active development at Airbus around the turn of the decade - maybe they are conserving resources to be able to get work going on the new short range aircraft at the same time?

V/F
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 11:12 pm

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 4):
what large industrial programme ever is?

Terminal 5 at LHR?
 
EI321
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 11:13 pm

Quoting VirginFlyer (Reply 9):
Quoting NAV20 (Reply 7):
On the face of it it's difficult to see why six years is required to develop the A350

A couple of thoughts - one, they may not be able to get the wheels turning properly until the Power 8 reforms are implemented... Also, perhaps the length of the development time indicates that the A350 won't be the only project under active development at Airbus around the turn of the decade - maybe they are conserving resources to be able to get work going on the new short range aircraft at the same time?

Possibly.

All in all, airbus are going to be quite Conservative with their development timeframe projections for the foreseeable future after the A380 delays.
 
SEPilot
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 11:16 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 11):
All in all, airbus are going to be quite Conservative with their development timeframe projections for the foreseeable future after the A380 delays.

 checkmark 
It is far more important for Airbus to get the A350 done right and on time than to get it done early. However it would be great if they can do it, and would go a long way towards repairing the damage done by the A380.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
NAV20
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 11:22 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 12):
It is far more important for Airbus to get the A350 done right and on time than to get it done early.

I'm not sure that that's appropriate in the aviation field, SEPilot. It has that devilish mixture of long lead-times and rapidly-developing technology and commercial trends. Taking longer than is necessary over design and development won't necessarily produce a better aeroplane - in fact, it could result in Airbus having to try to sell a 2007 design in the 2013 market, which may be (probably will be) radically different to the one that exists today.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
mauriceb
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 11:30 pm

Well to be honest, call me crazy, but i think 2013 is even optimistic, because there are 2 major problems, and some other smaller problems. First of all, they have some problems with making a competitive engine, GE (i think) doesn't want to develope an engine that wil be better than the 787 has. Second of all, the most customers didn't make the order firm, as they wan't to see some improvements to the current plans, because it doesn't offer anything more then the 787 , which enters service atleast 5 years earlier, Qatar already pushed up the presure, by also ordering a bunch of 787's.

Also expect Boeing to design a 787-10/777NG ones the final plans for the A350 are announced, which have a major advantage due to the cost savings of airlines, since it will be likely pilots can fly both 777 and 777NG, + type rating on the 787 will be the same.
 
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 11:33 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 13):
in fact, it could result in Airbus having to try to sell a 2007 design in the 2013 market, which may be (probably will be) radically different to the one that exists today.

True; but trying to rush and ending up in another snafu like the A380 will be far more costly for them; in fact, I believe they would have difficulty surviving it. But the long lead times you speak of also mean that Boeing will have equal difficulty in incorporating new developments on the 787; where it will give them an advantage in is in their next project, presumably the 737RS/Y1.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
elvis777
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 11:33 pm

Howdy all,

Let me be the first to say that the 350 will be late, in MY opinion. At least a year maybe two so I am thinking 2015 (ballpark it). I know, I know, I must hate eads, I am an eads basher, I am not a true avaition fan...... That aside bear with me for just a sec. The thing is that although several of eads big paycheck guys have stated publicly that panels are the way to go (and many supporters may be headed to carpal tunnel land with all the typing defending that decision..) it is my opinion that eads is working very hard to deveop the technology to use barrels instead of panels. Then the transition will occur and thus delay the program a couple of years or so. Granted I could very well be wrong. Lets just say that I am a firm believer in the technology of CFRP barrels. If barrels are the way to go then the technology needs to be there not just for the 350v3 but also for the 320 replacement....

Here is a nifty link that has some interesting stuff on this (I did not find this myself. Suffice it to say that Douglas sure knew how to build some tough planes.

http://www.designnews.com/article/CA6441583.html

I could be wrong of course and eads could put that bird in the air in 2013!

Peace

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kellmark
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 11:35 pm

Quoting Par13del (Reply 5):
Why, what reason exist for this to happen? How many customers of the initial version of the A350 switched to the B-787? Airbus is looking to produce a better a/c than the B-787, their customers have already shown them that they will wait for their product, so Airbus has the time leverage to see how the B-787 performs and improve the A350 to be a much better product. The a.net wisdom already has it that the A350 will make the B-777 obsolete, so how much damage will the A350 do to a B-787 that is already 5-6 years old when the A350 goes into service?

Just because a product is later than its competition doesn't mean it is better. In this case, Airbus will not have the bleedless technology of the 787, nor the barrel composite structure, which provides for better structural integrity, lighter weight, and a more comfortable cabin, just to name a few . The A350 also seems to now be too big to compete effectively with the 787, and fits more against the 777. Also, Airbus is still trying to sort out its own organizational problems internally and it has to deal with all of the politics that come with state involvement, which prevents it from reacting quickly like Boeing can. Does anyone honestly believe that EADS/Airbus will be able to outsource to the same extent that Boeing has done, what with the politics in Europe? I just don't see it. Also, when Airbus really goes for the state aid that they desperately need to make this thing go, there will be a real dog fight over that as well. Early? It is never going to happen. By the time the A350 actually goes into service, Boeing will be selling its new single aisle design to replace the 737 and will also be able to update an already excellent B777 to compete with the A350. And the 787 is in a class all its own a full five years before a less advanced A350 that is now too big to compete directly with it.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 11:37 pm

Quoting Par13del (Reply 5):
Airbus has the time leverage to see how the B-787 performs and improve the A350 to be a much better product. The a.net wisdom already has it that the A350 will make the B-777 obsolete, so how much damage will the A350 do to a B-787 that is already 5-6 years old when the A350 goes into service?

One should remember that when the A350 enters it's design freeze in October 2008, that will give Boeing up to five years (assuming a Q4 2013 EIS) to both follow the A350 and incorporate "block improvements" into the 787 based on in-service data coming back from the airlines.

It would be a mistake to assume the 787 will remain a static, unchanging design for it's life that once Airbus benchmarks, can easily be exceeded.
 
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 11:53 pm

Quoting Kellmark (Reply 16):
Also, Airbus is still trying to sort out its own organizational problems internally and it has to deal with all of the politics that come with state involvement, which prevents it from reacting quickly like Boeing can.

A' propos of that, EADS just issued a press statement about the rumoured changes at the top. It's three paragraphs long, but all it actually says is the usual thing - 'No decision has been taken yet....

http://www.eads.com/1024/en/pressdb/...10_eads_shareholder_statement.html

Incredibly, my guess is that the A350 project is still quite a low priority in the minds of Airbus management.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
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PM
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 11:57 pm

Quoting MauriceB (Reply 13):
First of all, they have some problems with making a competitive engine

Why should that delay EIS? Surely it would make things easier?

Quoting MauriceB (Reply 13):
the most customers didn't make the order firm

Uh? Like who?

Quoting Elvis777 (Reply 15):
the 350 will be late, in MY opinion

Why? The A380 was a cock-up but otherwise Airbus have a pretty decent record of delivering as promised. Plus, they've given themselves longer to do the A350 than Boeing had to do the 787. I can't think of a reason why we can predict that the A350 will be late.

Quoting Kellmark (Reply 16):
Airbus will not have the bleedless technology of the 787

A benefit which has yet to be proven in operation and there are those who argue that the disadvantages outweigh the benefits.

Quoting Kellmark (Reply 16):
Does anyone honestly believe that EADS/Airbus will be able to outsource to the same extent that Boeing has done, what with the politics in Europe?

Er, remind me - which of Airbus and Boeing has just opened a Final Assembly Line in China? And have US unions been indifferent about Boeing outsourcing so much? Do you actually know much about "politics in Europe"?
 
Poitin
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Tue Jul 10, 2007 11:59 pm

Quoting VirginFlyer (Reply 8):
A couple of thoughts - one, they may not be able to get the wheels turning properly until the Power 8 reforms are implemented... Also, perhaps the length of the development time indicates that the A350 won't be the only project under active development at Airbus around the turn of the decade - maybe they are conserving resources to be able to get work going on the new short range aircraft at the same time?

There is a third and much more serious issue, which is the root cause of most if not all of Airbus's problems and that is MANAGEMENT. -- or the lack there of. Ten years ago, Airbus was a dynamic, can-do, will-do, get-it done company that brought out the very successful A320 and A330, and what could have been a successful A340 if the price of oil didn't go through the roof. Now we have EADS with the French and German governments micromanaging every move, or so it seems.

What Airbus needs is an effective leader who can make decisions that are based on sound business grounds and not the whimperings of trade unions and politicians. Until that happens, I don't have much faith that anything will happen in a reasonable time frame. Just look at the A350's sordid history of re-design after re-design, with at least one more to come when they finally realize that they are simply building the world's largest flashlight battery with Li-AL and Carbon. SUH had it right, they really need to build the frame of composite, and really should go to barrels.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
777236ER
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 12:00 am

Let's not forget that the smoke screen that was the 'Sonic Cruiser' hid a lot of composite research that meant that Boeing could truly catch Airbus off guard with the 7E7/787 and make it look like they had a short development time.
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bigjku
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 12:07 am

Quoting B777A340Fan (Thread starter):
With the recent rollout of the 787 by Boeing, I was wondering if Airbus had the means to try to get the A350 out before schedule, ultimately to be more competitive with the 787. 2012 is still waaaay out and Boeing may be even further ahead once the A350 is introduced. What do ya'll think?



Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
If Airbus can do so, I expect them to do so.

I think they would be happy just to get it out on time given the recent track record on major projects.

Quoting Par13del (Reply 5):
Airbus is looking to produce a better a/c than the B-787, their customers have already shown them that they will wait for their product, so Airbus has the time leverage to see how the B-787 performs and improve the A350 to be a much better product. The a.net wisdom already has it that the A350 will make the B-777 obsolete, so how much damage will the A350 do to a B-787 that is already 5-6 years old when the A350 goes into service?

About the only way in which the A350 has produced better numbers than the 787 is through the very flawed comparisons Airbus is making between wrong sized models, basically they are taking their bigger models against the smaller 787 models.

There is no reason for Boeing to not match the A350 by simply making the 787 the same length.

Quoting PM (Reply 19):
The A380 was a cock-up but otherwise Airbus have a pretty decent record of delivering as promised.

In the past yes, but their current two projects, the A400M and the A380 have both been plagued by delays. Before that there was the decision and issues with the A340-500 and 600 that while not full of large delays certainly was not a smooth process.
 
bigjku
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 12:14 am

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 21):
Let's not forget that the smoke screen that was the 'Sonic Cruiser' hid a lot of composite research that meant that Boeing could truly catch Airbus off guard with the 7E7/787 and make it look like they had a short development time.

As true as that is I do not see how you can really hold it against Boeing.

Airbus was busy mucking around with the A380 which will be the last major mostly aluminum airliner built. In the process they learned how to make bigger parts and not much more.

Boeing mucked around with the Sonic Cruiser and sold none of them. But they started the process of learning how to build planes in a new revolutionary way.

Airbus should have been doing research into how planes were going to be built for the next 50 years rather than engaging in a prestige project designed to stroke national egos. Because they were not they got burned and will pay for it for several years. An important criteria of any plane development, or any major industrial research effort really, should be taking a look at what knowledge gained from that project can translate into future projects. With the A380 that is not much.
 
elvis777
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 12:17 am

Howdy PM,

Quoting PM (Reply 19):
Why? The A380 was a cock-up but otherwise Airbus have a pretty decent record of delivering as promised. Plus, they've given themselves longer to do the A350 than Boeing had to do the 787. I can't think of a reason why we can predict that the A350 will be late.

It looks liek you jumped the gun after reading only part of my post. In essence you did not bear with me the second I requested!!

Look at the second part of my post.

Elvis777
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par13del
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 12:17 am

EADS / Airbus has politics involved, won't aruge that point. Yes Airbus is building an assembly line in China for the A320, how much production will they be moving from the EU to China, immediately, none. China line is being used to provide aircraft for the Chinese market, note also that the line will be initially limited. Outsourcing in the EU is a big issue, and the unions will not take that lying down, and EADS / Airbus alone cannot and will not change that, regardless of how effective a mamager they get, that issue is political and will be resolved at the highest levels of govt.

With that said, I do believe that the speculation that Airbus will go barrels in time is correct, except they will do the barrels inhouse, the unions will go along because they will be the ones doing the job. Power8 will / may result in some production facilities being "spun off" but not to outside the EU as Boeing has done with some of its 787 production, in a previous thread in the non-av forum, Europeans oft times critize the UK for loosing so much of its local production capacity, I do not see the "continent" doing the same.

If the technology works, Airbus will have no choice but to use it, how is the question.
 
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 12:20 am

Quoting Elvis777 (Reply 24):
Look at the second part of my post.

I did. I read it. I still can't agree with you. You're biased. I'm objective. (Or is it the other way around...?  Wink)

What a game!
 
777236ER
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 12:24 am

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 23):
As true as that is I do not see how you can really hold it against Boeing.

Airbus was busy mucking around with the A380 which will be the last major mostly aluminum airliner built. In the process they learned how to make bigger parts and not much more.

Boeing mucked around with the Sonic Cruiser and sold none of them. But they started the process of learning how to build planes in a new revolutionary way.

Airbus should have been doing research into how planes were going to be built for the next 50 years rather than engaging in a prestige project designed to stroke national egos. Because they were not they got burned and will pay for it for several years. An important criteria of any plane development, or any major industrial research effort really, should be taking a look at what knowledge gained from that project can translate into future projects. With the A380 that is not much.

I don't hold it against Boeing, they were very smart. Airbus were sitting pretty at the end of the 90s/start of the 00s, the A320 was selling, the A330 was selling, the A340 was being upgraded, Boeing had 767-400ER problems, it had C-market 777 problems and still hadn't decided on a 747 replacement, then started prattling on about the Sonic Cruiser which everyone knew would never fly. Instead of questioning that Airbus laughed it off and concented on the A380 which has no appreciable market. They were caught with their pants down, just like Boeing were in the early 90s. Boeing sorted out their problems with Working Together, let's hope Airbus does the same.
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kellmark
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 12:45 am

Quoting PM (Reply 19):
A benefit which has yet to be proven in operation and there are those who argue that the disadvantages outweigh the benefits.

Yup, no doubt there are. But you can bet that Boeing has tested it thoroughly . It will save fuel. Just in the amount of weight it saves by not having to have the duct work, as well as the saving in lost thrust from the bleeds which burn more fuel.

Quoting PM (Reply 19):
Er, remind me - which of Airbus and Boeing has just opened a Final Assembly Line in China? And have US unions been indifferent about Boeing outsourcing so much? Do you actually know much about "politics in Europe"?

First of all, how can you assume so arrogantly that because I am American that I know nothing about politics in Europe? Since you are Japanese, then I should assume that you know nothing about America? I wouldn't make that assumption, as I know nothing about you personally. But are you really going to tell me that the decisions about the structure of management and production at EADS/Airbus has absolutely nothing with politics and jobs in Europe? It has everything to do with the situation that they are facing, and it will make it that much more difficult to get out of it. Look at the work stoppages that have already taken place.

What Boeing has done is work hard to squeeze the last bit of production leanness out of the process and make it as efficient as possible. The work is done where it can be done most efficiently. The subassemblies are flown in and the airplane will be put together in 3 days. Airbus has always put production facilities where they are due in large part to political considerations in Europe, regarding jobs. 16 factories all over Europe says it all. And as far as the China factory goes, they are not the first. McDonnel Douglas did that a long time ago. They are doing it for the Chinese market, so it makes sense. But they still have huge problems in Europe that will have to change before they can compete effectively. And interestingly, the Chinese will be the ones who will compete with both Airbus and Boeing in the future with their own aircraft.
 
aminobwana
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 12:54 am

I really do not see what is the reason of this thread in its present form.

We do not know how Airbus has planned the 5 years after 10/2008, unfortunately no info at all comes through here. So, what we are discussing, other then wihful thinking from both camps ???

If we want to discuss facts:

The obvious one that EIS is not delivery and assuming that mid 2013 is real, very few customers will receive the aircraft, as Leahy stated that in the first 18 months only 68 aircraft will be shipped.
Obviously, this must be considered when compared wuth the Boeing delivery times.

Also:

1) I do not know if what Elvis777 thinks ("it is my opinion that eads is working very hard to develop the technology to use barrels instead of panels" Reply 15) is real, but this is something to be followed up.

2) As posted on another thread, the Airbus unions are hardening their opposition to sell some plants and widen the outsourcing, which would affect all the planning already initiated with important potential suppliers. This hardening being provoked by the PR display after the Paris show, transmitting a stated perception that no such Power8 measures are needed. And as Kellmark says, on top of: Does anyone honestly believe that EADS/Airbus will be able to outsource to the same extent that Boeing has done, what with the politics in Europe?, with which under normal conditions I agree.

These issues could affect the EIS date.

For the sake of Airbus, lets hope that, after the flood of announcements and denials regarding the EADS reorganization, finally a streamlined and transparent organization will be agreed which would allow, between other, that the unions realize the problems and if the barrels are imposed by the reality, the needed decisions would be taken disregarding the PR and political obstacles. And that, once the EADS management problem is solved, a turn-around CEO with ample private industrie experience (as Christian Streiif was!) and full powers will be installed.

A further delay will not be a disgrace if the newest technology is applied and therefore the aircraft will be state of the art whenever ready. Which means that the design shall not be "simplified" only to be able to acelerate the EIS and limit the outsourcing, which which seems to be the reason of the resistance against barrels.

And once such a "non-simplified" design is affirmed, Airbus will be able to book real and not conditioned orders !!

aminobwana
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 12:54 am

The 787 had a year or two of work on configuration in private discussions between airlines and Boeing. I don't know exactly how long this period was but it remains that Boeing doesn't conduct its configuration arguments with customers in public.


Airbus has been reacting to the 787 for years now and doing so publicly to try and preserve as much market share as possible. I don't personally believe that the current firm orders for the XWB are what 5 years ago would be thought of as "firm" and "valid" given the time and configuration changes yet to happen in the XWB development program. Its just not credible that these airlines would be putting down large deposits and taking monetary risk on a plane that doesn't even have its first configuration freeze. So I personally believe that the current contracts on the XWB have lots of "walk away free of charge" clauses in them. It seems to me the complete lack of "options" in the recent contracts for any airbus indicates that they would rather have as many "firm" orders than to have contracts that have penalties for not taking frames. In thier defense though, given that most airlines can walk away from ordered frames for the asking regardless of the contract, thanks to the need to play nice with your customers. So might as well formalise that you can't really hold most airlines hostage with thier orders.
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 12:57 am

Quoting VirginFlyer (Reply 8):
maybe they are conserving resources to be able to get work going on the new short range aircraft at the same time?

Or perhaps the A-400M is drawing off a few resources as well.

I just think that perhaps Airbus wants to avoid a repeat of the A-380 wiring fiasco.
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 12:58 am

Quoting Kellmark (Reply 28):
Since you are Japanese

Actually, I've lived here for just short of one year. I have two passports. Both European. (And my mother was born in New York so I could have had a third!)

Quoting Kellmark (Reply 28):
I should assume that you know nothing about America?

That might be reckless. I've been to more American States (40) than most Americans I know and I teach American History.

Quoting Kellmark (Reply 28):
Look at the work stoppages that have already taken place.

Can your memory stretch back to Boeing workers being on strike? It isn't that long ago.

Of course I cannot deny that chauvanistic politics plays its part in Airbus and EADS. But I believe the term "pork barrel politics" was invented in - and is still alive and well in - the USA. Airbus has risen from nowhere to being a credible challenger for the No.1 position in its industry in the same murky waters as it currently swims in. So, will Airbus "outsource"? It already does.
 
AvObserver
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 12:58 am

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 21):
Let's not forget that the smoke screen that was the 'Sonic Cruiser' hid a lot of composite research that meant that Boeing could truly catch Airbus off guard with the 7E7/787 and make it look like they had a short development time.

You can believe what you like but I've seen plenty of evidence that the Sonic Cruiser was a serious intent, knocked out of contention by the combination of the '00 recession and the 9/11-caused commercial aviation downturn. It was fortunate BCA had the Yellowstone (7E7) design study running in parallel so they could switch to the slower but more economical design. It's true Boeing milked the Cruiser for all it was worth to draw attention from the A380 after its own 747X program was scrapped but they were in serious talks with airlines about it. The response, unfortunately after 9/11, was lukewarm, even tepid so they had to retreat to the more sensible concept.

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 27):
and still hadn't decided on a 747 replacement, then started prattling on about the Sonic Cruiser which everyone knew would never fly

Not quite true: Boeing had completed designwork on the 430 passenger 747X and its 502 passenger stretch version but it had insufficient upgrades to land any launch order. And it wasn't altogether apparent early on that the Sonic Cruise wouldn't fly; it seemed Boeing had ironed out most of the design issues for a transonic airliner and in better times, it might have prevailed. However, cost beleagered airlines demanded efficiency over speed gains and the rest is history.
 
kaneporta1
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 1:51 am

Quoting Elvis777 (Reply 15):
Let me be the first to say that the 350 will be late, in MY opinion. At least a year maybe two so I am thinking 2015



Quoting Elvis777 (Reply 15):
it is my opinion that eads is working very hard to deveop the technology to use barrels instead of panels.

Any reasoning behind these assumptions? Why would EADS work hard to develop the technology? What's stopping them from just contracting barrels out to Alenia for example?

Quoting Elvis777 (Reply 15):
Lets just say that I am a firm believer in the technology of CFRP barrels. If barrels are the way to go then the technology needs to be there not just for the 350v3 but also for the 320 replacement....

Why are barrels the way to go? Is it because Boeing said so? There has only been one composite barrel airplane in the past, the Beech Starship, and it wasn't a stellar success. Should we assume based on this fact that the 787 will not be good?

I thought so...

Having two different designs, doesn't make one better than the other. There are different challenges and compromises with each design, and until they both fly operationally, there is no reason to claim barrels are better than panels or vice versa.
I'd rather die peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather, not terrified and screaming, like his passengers
 
SEPilot
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 2:02 am

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 34):
Having two different designs, doesn't make one better than the other. There are different challenges and compromises with each design, and until they both fly operationally, there is no reason to claim barrels are better than panels or vice versa.

Your profile says you are an engineer; I cannot believe that you really believe that. If you were designing a pressure vessel where weight was at a premium would you design one with continuous cylindrical components butted end to end or one out of panels requiring four lengthwise joints as well as circumferal joints? Fewer joints are ALWAYS preferrable unless you are designing for disassembly and portability, which isn't the case here. Furthermore, in a pressure vessel, circumferal joints are stressed less than lengthwise joints. Your argument is like saying cars with a discrete frame and a unitized body are just different design choices and there is no reason to select one over the other. The marketplace has decided otherwise.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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Stitch
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 2:16 am

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 34):
Why would EADS work hard to develop the technology? What's stopping them from just contracting barrels out to Alenia for example?

It depends if Alenia non-exclusively licensed the technology to spin barrels to Boeing, or if Boeing exclusively licensed the technology to Alenia. My money is on the latter.

That certainly does not mean Airbus cannot develop/license their own technology to do so, of course.

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 34):
Why are barrels the way to go? Is it because Boeing said so?

More like the airlines, but they are also showing commitment to the panels approach, as well.
 
SEPilot
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 2:37 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 36):

More like the airlines, but they are also showing commitment to the panels approach, as well.

I have not head anyone except John Leahy (whose engineering credentials I would question) express any enthusiasm for panels. IMHO the customers are committed to Airbus and are willing to live with the panels, but I'll bet if you gave them the choice between barrels and panels on an Airbus plane there wouldn't be a single vote for panels.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 36):
That certainly does not mean Airbus cannot develop/license their own technology to do so, of course.

I absolutely agree; and the sooner the better. My take on it is that Airbus management feels they cannot afford the time or money this time to do it. Hopefully by the time they get to the next one they will.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
kellmark
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 2:42 am

Quoting PM (Reply 32):
Quoting Kellmark (Reply 28):
Since you are Japanese

Actually, I've lived here for just short of one year. I have two passports. Both European. (And my mother was born in New York so I could have had a third!)

Very curious. So why do you put a Japanese flag? Why not be honest about your citizenship?

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 34):



Quoting PM (Reply 32):

I should assume that you know nothing about America?

That might be reckless. I've been to more American States (40) than most Americans I know and I teach American History.

How ironic. You seem to make a living teaching about a country for which you seem to have utter contempt. And your attitude about Americans seems to be that they cannot know anything about European politics, but yet you as a European can teach American History and that is not a problem.

Quoting PM (Reply 32):
Of course I cannot deny that chauvanistic politics plays its part in Airbus and EADS. But I believe the term "pork barrel politics" was invented in - and is still alive and well in - the USA. Airbus has risen from nowhere to being a credible challenger for the No.1 position in its industry in the same murky waters as it currently swims in. So, will Airbus "outsource"? It already does.

Yup. we have our problems in the US with "pork barrel" politics. But we also have mechanisms to discover problems. Look how Boeing was caught out with the Tanker affair etc. As they should have been. But they learned from it and certainly paid for it, and have moved on. They were never treated as anything other than a private corporation and had to suffer the public repercussions, with the significant financial penalties along with it. And executives got fired. With Airbus, it seems some executives are fired or have to leave when they try to fix a broken company and are not allowed to. It is done for the wrong reasons.

What happens with Airbus is they can't seem to shake themselves free from their state aid and state oversight, which corrupts their whole process of which products to make and where to make them. As long as that is the case, they will continue to have serious problems, which can only be fixed by more state aid. With Boeing, everytime they commit to a new product they are literally betting the company on its success. Airbus, because it has had a free ride at taxpayer expense and not had the same risk to contend with, has now badly misjudged both the market and the technology and is way behind at this point.

Airbus rose to be a contender because of two factors. One, they got state aid upon state aid, for every project. Two, they actually were hungry to be successful when they were smaller, but later they got complacent and comfortable and underestimated Boeing's ability to recover from its own problems and literally reinvent itself. Airbus is now suffering the consequences of that as well as their own mismanagement with both the A380 and the A350. . And they will continue to do so until they are able to completely restructure their entire business. But it won't happen in the forseeable future.. Airbus needs to now reinvent itself as Boeing did. Anything less will leave them behind.
 
Shenzhen
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 2:46 am

Well, if they changed their time lines, then all the contracts with both their vendors and customers would need to be changed.

Cheers,
 
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Stitch
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 3:11 am

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 39):
Well, if they changed their time lines, then all the contracts with both their vendors and customers would need to be changed.

Airbus had the flexibility to do so, but it's coming down to provide a plane that's "darn good enough" in time to meet market needs or provide a plane that is "better then good enough" once the market has already bought the other model because it was both "darn good enough" and available...

If Airbus had the luxury, I expect they would want monolithic barrels. But the longer they wait, the more they allow Boeing to continue to sell 787s and 777s into the 767, A330 and A340 replacement market as well as improved products (787HGW/Y3) to solidify their hold on those markets.
 
flysherwood
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 3:17 am

When was the last time that Airbus completed anything early? It has taken the A380 more than 7 years to get into the hands of their customer. How long did it take to get the first A330's to their customers? The A350 has been on the table now for what, 2 years? And yes, I consider all the iterations in that number!
 
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Stitch
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 3:22 am

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 41):
How long did it take to get the first A330's to their customers?

The A330 and A340 program launch was in June of 1987. First A330 delivery was in late 1993, so 6.5 years. First A340 delivery was March of 1993, so just under 6 years.
 
spink
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 3:34 am

Quoting PM (Reply 19):
Why? The A380 was a cock-up but otherwise Airbus have a pretty decent record of delivering as promised. Plus, they've given themselves longer to do the A350 than Boeing had to do the 787. I can't think of a reason why we can predict that the A350 will be late.

Remember that Boeing was working on the infrastructure and development of many of the technologies for the 787 well before they announced it. If you read the background stories, they were working on what became the 787 at the same time they were working on the sonic cruiser. So effectively, the abbreviated schedule for the 787 is more an effect of having a very large head start on the development process well before they started promoting to the public.

And even with that head start they are at basically 5 years from authorization to EIS.
 
slider
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 3:35 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 17):
It would be a mistake to assume the 787 will remain a static, unchanging design for it's life that once Airbus benchmarks, can easily be exceeded.

Especially if the increased chatter about a 787-10 variant has any credence...think about what would be essentially an A/C to slot between the 777-200 and 300. Except composite. Bleedless. With electrics. More efficiency. I think Boeing learned a costly lesson about taking their foot off the gas pedal and they won't make that mistake again, especially when you put Boyd's weekly column into context.

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 29):
1) I do not know if what Elvis777 thinks ("it is my opinion that eads is working very hard to develop the technology to use barrels instead of panels" Reply 15) is real, but this is something to be followed up.

I agree totally. Airbus cannot be serious if they are willing to voluntarily accept a manufacturing technique that puts them at a competitive and engineering disadvantage.

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 34):
Why are barrels the way to go? Is it because Boeing said so?

No, because engineers did. And airlines. The price of fuel, the competitive landscape. Capital leasing firms. Customers. Technology. Is that a good enough list of reasons?
 
EXAAUADL
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 3:49 am

The decision to speed production of the A350 will not be determiend by the 7-8-7 rollout of the 787. It isnt as though that roll out was a surprise...they shoudl get the A350 out as soon as is technically possible, if fact I would assume they are doing so.
 
AEROFAN
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 3:55 am

i still don't understand what technological advancements that will be made to allow the A350 to be so superior to the B787. is someone developing engines to allow hypher sonic flight without the resulting booms? i'm no engineer, but based upon what has been said about the 350 thus far, it doesn't seem that it will be any better than the 787.

will it be more humid inside? have bigger windows? a moon roof? how about a sun roof? more wheels? what exactly will it have that will make it superior?
 
flysherwood
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 4:07 am

Quoting Aerofan (Reply 46):
will it be more humid inside? have bigger windows? a moon roof? how about a sun roof? more wheels? what exactly will it have that will make it superior?

NOTHING!!! It will NOT be superior to the 787!  Yeah sure
 
AEROFAN
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 4:12 am

flysherwood, you are a braver soul than i  Smile
 
CruzinAltitude
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 4:20 am

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 21):
Let's not forget that the smoke screen that was the 'Sonic Cruiser' hid a lot of composite research that meant that Boeing could truly catch Airbus off guard with the 7E7/787 and make it look like they had a short development time.

It is debatable that the Sonic Cruiser was a "smoke screen." According to Boeing, they were essentially giving the airlines two options. The very public Sonic Cruiser, which offered 777 efficiency at 20% faster travel times or the 7e7, which offered 777 speed with 20% more fuel efficiency. Airlines gave their opinions and Boeing reacted to the market's needs.

I firmly belive that had airlines wanted the faster aircraft with the current fuel efficiency, Boeing would have moved on the Sonic Cruiser. The market didn't bear that out.
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: Will The A350 Be Introduced Early?

Wed Jul 11, 2007 4:20 am

Quoting Par13del (Reply 5):
How many customers of the initial version of the A350 switched to the B-787?

Customers of the initial A350 could not switch to the B787 without risking loss of their deposits.

Quoting Par13del (Reply 5):
their customers have already shown them that they will wait for their product,

By the time that the A350XWB was introduced the B787 was sold out past the delivery dates of the intial A350 versions. I don't see what choice those customers had other than to wait (except for QR, who apparently went ahead and bought some B787's after all).

Quoting Par13del (Reply 5):
Airbus has the time leverage to see how the B-787 performs and improve the A350 to be a much better product.

Airbus can hope for some incremental improvement in engine and aerodynamic efficiency. Neither of those improvements will be big...so "much better" is not probable.

Quoting Par13del (Reply 5):
how much damage will the A350 do to a B-787 that is already 5-6 years old when the A350 goes into service?

You presume that the B787 design will stand still for 5 years. Boeing will offer new and improved versions during those years. The B787-10 is a certainty, and a B787-8ER/LR seems quite likely as well.

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 21):
Let's not forget that the smoke screen that was the 'Sonic Cruiser' hid a lot of composite research that meant that Boeing could truly catch Airbus off guard with the 7E7/787 and make it look like they had a short development time.

 talktothehand Wrong - the Sonic Cruiser was a real program, not a smoke screen, and Boeing was not concealing their work on composite fuselages. IIRC Boeing was trumpeting the new technology at Farnborough in 2002. You can't blame Boeing for Airbus (or A.Net) failing to see the significance of the work Boeing was doing...it wasn't hidden.

You are correct that the Sonic Cruiser technology was the basis of the 7E7; Boeing had many years of advance work done that made the fast-track to the 787 possible. That should not be taken as a criticism of Boeing; they had the foresight to focus on using new materials and construction techniques and it has given them a substantial lead over Airbus...for the moment.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.