GoBlue
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B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Mon Jul 16, 2007 2:23 pm

What is happening at JetBlue? They only have 4 new routes listed up until November 1st, and they have many aircraft arriving that they will need to deploy.

There are not many more NY to FL oppourtunites for them to exploit, unless they are going to expand their LGA and EWR operations. I hope that LGB and OAK see some expansion and they work on P2P West coast operations, but they are in tough with WN there. I do no know. but they have to figure out a competitive strategy soon. As NY-FL can only go so far.

Are there any more code shares coming online from JFK? Also why would they not work with those airlines not in an allinance for a feed from JFK, ORD or BOS.. they could offer many destinations in the US. except ORD which is limited to JFK and LGB... and their respective connections.

I say they spend the money and buy some more slots at ORD.. they can get them if they have the money.!!!!!!

Your Thoughts?
 
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mke717spotter
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Mon Jul 16, 2007 2:56 pm

How about MKE finally? B6 has been rumored to come to MKE for a while now, but so far nothing. The 8 new gates at concourse C are just about finished up and so far there hasn't been any news really about any airlines expanding into them. I'd like to see their A320s here in MKE over the ERJs though, since we already have more then enough regional jet flying as it is.
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lowecur
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Mon Jul 16, 2007 9:10 pm

They will sell at least 5 old 320s and maybe 10 by year end. Barger said he expects a report sometime in the middle of August from Russ Chew on directional changes that should be incorporated to make B6 more profitable. I think this will include the closure of a few cities, with focus on building out profitable markets. Jetblue has basically focused on n/s service from various cities across the country to JFK. You can't build customer loyalty in a city by just offering flights to one or two markets.............this will be the big change in my opinion.
 
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na747
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Mon Jul 16, 2007 9:43 pm

I'll bet it'll be a matter of time before they start expanding again, but maybe not as fast.
Wouldn't be surprised if they start more Int'l/Caribeean cities in the near future such as MBJ, STT, etc.
Opinions anyone?
 
DBCooper
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Mon Jul 16, 2007 9:56 pm

Russ Chew is an operations guru, not a commercial one. Barger is looking to the wrong guy if that is who he is looking for a report from regarding B6 directional changes.


- DBC
 
EMBQA
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Mon Jul 16, 2007 10:02 pm

Quoting GoBlue (Thread starter):
What is happening at JetBlue? They only have 4 new routes listed up until November 1st, and they have many aircraft arriving that they will need to deploy.

You know... you can always increase frequency..!!
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
 
B6ramprat
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Mon Jul 16, 2007 11:49 pm

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 5):
You know... you can always increase frequenc

Not into or out of JFK thats for sure.
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jetbluefan1
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 12:34 am

I think we'll see a great focus on connecting of the dots for the immediate future. Markets such as TUS, ONT, SRQ and PDX that only have one flight a day (SRQ has 2 in the winter, but still...) are certainly not pulling their weight as far as economies of scale go. Those markets basically rely on one arrival and one departure to produce enough revenue for not only flight costs but also space rental, ground crew costs, etc. It would be smart to spread said costs among more flights.

As far as city closings, I can't really think of any cities that have been operating too badly for B6. It seems that PIT, CMH, and RIC have finally picked up, and BNA is slowly making its way up the chain as well. If anything, I would expect Barger to stimulate demand in these cities by starting new advertising campaigns and adding more destinations from these cities (that are already in the JetBlue network), thereby increasing customer awareness. However, there are certain routes which I could certainly see being cut, such as IAD-LAS and LGB-SMF.

That being said, I hear TUS has been subpar since its inception - though it's still a new city.

The reason why many routes have yet to be announced is because it is very likely that B6 will sell several A320's by year-end. Though nothing has been announced, I'm sure there are some workings there, and we'll most likely learn about them in the conference call next week.

JetBluefan1
 
panam330
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 3:17 am

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 7):
It seems that PIT, CMH, and RIC have finally picked up,

I've heard otherwise. PIT is doing very poor, CMH is so-so, and RIC I've heard is doing fairly well, but not as well as some had imagined.

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 7):
certain routes which I could certainly see being cut, such as IAD-LAS and LGB-SMF.

I've heard both do very well for B6, especially IAD-LAS. At least before WN at IAD, that is. I'm not sure if they saw decreases in yields and/or loads since WN has entered.
 
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deltadawg
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 3:45 am

Several weeks ago I was talking with a US Airways gate agent in SAV, she mentioned that 4 B6 folks visited SAV that week (week of June 11th) and stayed overnight.

I know SAV has been mentioned time and time again but could it be that B6 would finally come to SAV? That would be a new city if so.
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lowecur
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 3:45 am

Quoting DBCooper (Reply 4):
Russ Chew is an operations guru, not a commercial one. Barger is looking to the wrong guy if that is who he is looking for a report from regarding B6 directional changes.

What is a commercial one?

Russ Chew runs the day to day operations for Jetblue, and is essentially #2 in the chain of command. Are you insinuating he doesn't have the authority to oversee and make decisions on route planning reports? You can't run the day to day operations of an airline and not be given the authority of making future route planning decisions.

Dave Barger will make the final call, but Russ Chews recommendations will in all likelihood be followed to the letter.
 
jetbluefan1
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 3:51 am

Quoting PanAm330 (Reply 8):
I've heard otherwise. PIT is doing very poor, CMH is so-so, and RIC I've heard is doing fairly well, but not as well as some had imagined.

PIT did poorly up to April - poor yields AND poor loads. Now, yields have picked up slightly though loads have grown dramatically. Same thing goes for CMH and RIC, though RIC was always a better performer. In any case, all three markets remain new to the JetBlue system, and it wouldn't make sense to cut them - especially since they've improving.

Quoting PanAm330 (Reply 8):
I've heard both do very well for B6, especially IAD-LAS. At least before WN at IAD, that is. I'm not sure if they saw decreases in yields and/or loads since WN has entered.

IAD-LAS consistently has subpar yields compared to other B6 routes of similar length. In addition, IAD-LAS has its lowest walk-up fare this summer of $229 - the second lowest transcon walk-up fare in JetBlue's system (only beating JFK-TUS, which is at $204). IAD-LGB/OAK/SAN have a walk-up of $289, BOS/JFK-West Coast also have either $289 or $294 walk-up fares, with BOS-LGB having $374 and JFK-BUR having $344. These walk-up fares are certainly indicative of JetBlue's pricing power on all these routes. While IAD-LAS does operate more full during the summer, its performance during the wintertime is fair at best; I doubt the $79 fares they charged November-February were making any money whatsoever. By comparison, JFK-TUS had fares as low as $99 while almost all other transcon routes were at least at $119 if not $149.

LGB-SMF recently lost a frequency; it went down from 3 daily flights to 2. Obviously it wasn't a winner from the beginning, and its loads are consistently lower than OAK's, even with the decrease in capacity - though loads have increased slightly. Yields seem similar.

JetBluefan1
 
ikramerica
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 4:20 am

They could finally come to LAX like every first tier airline does. Not only would they dramatically increase transcon traffic, they would free up some LGB slots...

Quoting NA747 (Reply 3):
STT, etc.
Opinions anyone?

I like that suggestion. STT would be a good destination for them.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
iaddca
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 4:55 am

They just killed IAD-PBI, and IAD-BOS is down to 3 E-190 RTs a day from 6 last year.
 
jetbluefan1
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 5:04 am

Quoting Iaddca (Reply 14):
They just killed IAD-PBI, and IAD-BOS is down to 3 E-190 RTs a day from 6 last year.

IAD-PBI was killed, but IAD-BOS is only down to 5 E-190's, not 3. In fact, IAD-BOS is doing very, very well with its current frequency.

JetBluefan1
 
Lexy
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 5:52 am

Quoting Mke717spotter (Reply 1):
since we already have more then enough regional jet flying as it is.

The E190's are mainline. Not regional.
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787EWR
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 6:17 am

Quoting NA747 (Reply 3):
I'll bet it'll be a matter of time before they start expanding again, but maybe not as fast.
Wouldn't be surprised if they start more Int'l/Caribeean cities in the near future such as MBJ, STT, etc.
Opinions anyone?

I agree with both locations as Jetblue seems to be a vacation airline. My only question to that would be where would they serve those locations from? JFK would be the top location, but it is saturated right now. Perhaps Boston, although it normally has the same weather problems.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 13):
They could finally come to LAX like every first tier airline does. Not only would they dramatically increase transcon traffic, they would free up some LGB slots...

JFK to LAX would put it up against American, United and now Delta. That is a lot of seats going between these 2 locations. Although, if their fares are better than the majors, they might have a shot. I am willing to bet that American and Delta would enter a price war to keep passengers.

Seems to me that any flights from LAX to any major destination in the country is going to cause some competition, eg LAX-ORD or LAX-DFW.

Perhaps they might want to look at FLL or MCO to Mexico or points further south.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 6:21 am

jetblues new flights from Salt Lake City to San Diego and Salt Lake City to San Francisco what type of plane will those be on????? I know jetblue curently runs salt lake city to JFK and Long Beach on the 320s I am surprised Jetblue went with SFO instead of OAK on this flight. From SFO you can only fly to BOS and JFK as opposed oakland which is a "key city"
 
SkyyMaster
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 7:00 am

Quoting GoBlue (Thread starter):
I say they spend the money and buy some more slots at ORD.. they can get them if they have the money.!!!!!!

Buy from whom? I haven't heard of any carriers willing to sell their ORD slots.

Any "official" word on loads from BNA? I've flown three BNA-JFK-northeast city RT's in the last 6 weeks. On all the BNA legs in and out, the a/c were less than 1/3 full on an E90. These were the first flights out and last flight in, respectively. Those don't seem like very good LF's to me considering the amount of time they've been here. Unless I just happen to be catching them on off days, but co-workers have reported similar numbers.
 
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SANFan
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 8:31 am

Quoting 787EWR (Reply 17):
JFK to LAX would put it up against American, United and now Delta.

And soon, Virgin America I suspect!

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 13):
They could finally come to LAX like every first tier airline does. Not only would they dramatically increase transcon traffic, they would free up some LGB slots...

My opinion: if they open LAX, they won't need or want extra slots at LGB...

Quoting SlcDeltaRUmd11 (Reply 18):
jetblues new flights from Salt Lake City to San Diego and Salt Lake City to San Francisco what type of plane will those be on?????

Airbi will start flying the routes late next week... There are no 190s in the west yet; many of us are waiting anxiously for the Great Westerly Migration of those birds!

bb
 
ikramerica
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 8:36 am

Quoting SANFan (Reply 20):
My opinion: if they open LAX, they won't need or want extra slots at LGB...

But they could trade them to someone else, or offer some intrastate routes.

While LAX is more desirable for longer routes, there is demand for regional routes from LGB, similar to how BUR functions.
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MCOflyer
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:21 am

Quoting 787EWR (Reply 17):
Perhaps they might want to look at FLL or MCO to Mexico or points further south.

Good idea for MCO as FLL can be busy. B6 does quite well out of MCO I hear. They could fly to Aruba, STT, SXM, and other Caribbean destinations. Hey a MTY route would produce good results. If they only could reach Brazil.

Hunter
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SANFan
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:47 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 21):
But they could trade them to someone else, or offer some intrastate routes.
While LAX is more desirable for longer routes, there is demand for regional routes from LGB, similar to how BUR functions.

I do agree that IF B6 is planning on intra-CA service, or let's expand that to say "local west coast" service, then they might be able to expand LGB. But again, under the premise that they're at LAX, I still don't know how much they would leave at LGB; I'm not that convinced that B6 would end up that much different than the other folks who serve both LA and LB, with a very minor operation at the latter. And I assume you mean "how BUR functions for other cx" since B6 has nothing regional out of BUR -- only JFK.

Apparently LGB-SMF didn't do that well and I don't know about the OAK route. I think the real key is the a/c; if the 190 shows up on the left coast, I think we have a brand new ballgame.

bb
 
lowecur
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:47 am

Quoting SkyyMaster (Reply 19):
Any "official" word on loads from BNA? I've flown three BNA-JFK-northeast city RT's in the last 6 weeks. On all the BNA legs in and out, the a/c were less than 1/3 full on an E90.

Perfect example of why you need to build out a station. How many times have you seen WN go into a new market and offer 1 or 2 n/s destinations? You need to build up a station to at least 4 or 5 n/s destinations and they should include at least 3 hubs or mini hubs. It takes 2 to 3 times longer to build loyalty when you limit you markets like Jetblue has done.
 
jetbluefan1
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 10:18 am

Quoting Lowecur (Reply 24):
Perfect example of why you need to build out a station. How many times have you seen WN go into a new market and offer 1 or 2 n/s destinations? You need to build up a station to at least 4 or 5 n/s destinations and they should include at least 3 hubs or mini hubs. It takes 2 to 3 times longer to build loyalty when you limit you markets like Jetblue has done.

I completely agree. Adding BOS-BNA and IAD-BNA would certainly increase the overall financials of BNA - if not for the actual routes themselves, but for greater brand recognition, greater airport rent efficiency, and greater labor efficiency on the ground. Hopefully Barger will make such a routine standard in pursuit of greater asset efficiency as a goal for company operations.

JetBluefan1
 
GuitrThree
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:20 am

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 25):
I completely agree. Adding BOS-BNA and IAD-BNA would certainly increase the overall financials of BNA - if not for the actual routes themselves, but for greater brand recognition, greater airport rent efficiency, and greater labor efficiency on the ground.

But don't forget, BNA is home to an Embraer facility.. one of the reasons why they opened a gate there.. they could fly in an E-190 for service and swap it with one there already finishing up service....
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lowecur
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:51 am

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 25):
Hopefully Barger will make such a routine standard in pursuit of greater asset efficiency as a goal for company operations.

Have you noticed that FL is beating B6 to the punch. They have built out ROC very nicely to the point that B6 is basically an O&D market to JFK. FL has built out ROC's Florida n/s market and just added LAS 3 times per week......allowing many SYR pax that used to drive to BUF for LAS to shorten their drive. FL has decided they no longer need to fear B6, and have moved into their territory or stood their ground at other stations around the NE. They have beaten them to the punch at MCO and LAS, picking up gatespace while B6 brainstorms on whether these markets should be larger focus cities. Duh???? Why is FL grabbing this gatespace? Could it be they are sitting in on the redundant B6 meetings on what to do next?
 
CitrusCritter
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:55 am

Quoting Lowecur (Reply 27):
Could it be they are sitting in on the redundant B6 meetings on what to do next?

Well while my love of FL is infamous by now on this board, let's not forget that FL seems to be sitting in meetings wondering when they should become known west of the Mississippi River more or less. B6 is building a sizeable western op while FL doesn't do anything but a couple of transcons to ATL, MCO, and IND.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 12:09 pm

Quoting GoBlue (Thread starter):
I say they spend the money and buy some more slots at ORD..



Quoting SkyyMaster (Reply 19):

Buy from whom? I haven't heard of any carriers willing to sell their ORD slots.

ORD doesn't have slots in the sense that an airport like LHR does but rather has an extremely convoluted system that applies differently depending on carrier size and time of day. Thus, B6 could probably add 5-10 flights without purchasing arrival authorizations from anyone, assuming someone helped them out with gate access.

This is true for B6 because B6 meets the FAA definition of a 'limited incumbent' within the rule and the current rule will sunset in 2008 because the FAA had anticipated the opening of the new 9R-27L (which is now slated, IIRC, for early '09). The FAA currently does not have a rule in place for how the 9 or so hourly 'slots' that the new runway will permit will be assigned, but if nothing else, B6 could probably gobble up some of those in 18 months or so.

Quoting Mke717spotter (Reply 1):
How about MKE finally?

I think that depends largely on what happens with the FL/YX deal. YX is a much more formidable competitor.
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exFATboy
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 12:41 pm

Quoting Lowecur (Reply 27):
They have beaten them to the punch at MCO and LAS, picking up gatespace while B6 brainstorms on whether these markets should be larger focus cities.

FL has always had a substantial MCO operation - the per-merger AirTran was based there. So I wouldn't say they've "beaten JetBlue to the punch" there. FL has built out ROC nicely, that's true. B6 has decided to concentrate on SYR instead - they've added MCO and (coming soon) FLL.

And B6 has "beaten" FL in terms of building out BOS rather handily. Which would you rather have a commanding position in, BOS or ROC? I don't think people give B6 enough credit for what they've done in Boston.

As for LAS, that's a tough call. LAS is an extremely competitive market, and B6 has probably done better by concentrating on its Caribbean expansion. B6 flies from LAS to its Northeast focus cities and LGB, and has probably made a conscious decision not to go into LAS-FLL. (And as for the last focus city, there's no way in hell B6 is going to go into LAS-OAK and get into a spitting match with the 800 pound canyon blue gorilla.)

I don't think FL has ever truly "feared" B6, but respected them, just as B6 has not tried again in ATL. But you 'll notice that FL is pretty much a non-player in New York City - only feed to the ATL hub from EWR, and only 3 destinations from LGA.
 
jetbluefan1
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 12:42 pm

Quoting Lowecur (Reply 27):
Have you noticed that FL is beating B6 to the punch. They have built out ROC very nicely to the point that B6 is basically an O&D market to JFK. FL has built out ROC's Florida n/s market and just added LAS 3 times per week......allowing many SYR pax that used to drive to BUF for LAS to shorten their drive. FL has decided they no longer need to fear B6, and have moved into their territory or stood their ground at other stations around the NE. They have beaten them to the punch at MCO and LAS, picking up gatespace while B6 brainstorms on whether these markets should be larger focus cities. Duh???? Why is FL grabbing this gatespace? Could it be they are sitting in on the redundant B6 meetings on what to do next?

I'm sure B6 was fine sacrificing ROC in return for expanding BOS - a city that FL has struggled to grow while B6 has grown there by leaps and bounds. Not to mention that BOS has much, much greater growth potential than ROC. In addition, don't forget that B6 isn't afraid to fight back against FL if there is something of interest that both are competing against. HPN and SWF come to mind, as well as BOS-IAD (see: knee-jerk reaction '06). FL has now dropped SWF-FLL and didn't even launch BOS-IAD. It is apparent that JetBlue will fight back, and it's also apparent that ROC expansion was not a point of interest for B6.

That being said, it seems that B6 was more interested in growing its city list while FL was more interested in connecting the dots. FL has yet to enter SYR, which is now turning out to be a pretty busy station for B6. Also, FL all but completely forgot about BUF until B6 started some additional routes such as BOS - and now FLL as well. Don't forget the addition of PWM - a market that B6 has proven successful, and one that FL has only recently entered.

It seems that each airline has grabbed space and expanded where it has best fit their needs.

JetBluefan1
 
lowecur
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 12:44 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 29):
I think that depends largely on what happens with the FL/YX deal. YX is a much more formidable competitor.

This deal would give FL a great Midwest presence with hubs at MCI and MKE. They understand the need to build out stations with an ability to overwelm the competition with more choices for travelers. They have a great presence on the East Coast and their focus is now on the Midwest. Once these two geographic areas are merged, they can begin to focus on the SW, Westcoast, and NW.

Jetblue is all over the map because that looked great when fuel prices were low. With oil above $60bbl, the long stage routes are a footnote of losses and breakeven on the balance sheet. Jetblue has alot of work to do on their network to catch up with FL and SWA, particularly if FL grabs YX.

Did you notice AA is expanding business flts out of STL? Wonder why? Could it be that STL mgt spilled the beans to AA that B6 is asking questions again about gatespace? It's a giant chess game of corporate espionage, that B6 is losing.

[Edited 2007-07-17 05:48:01]
 
Cubsrule
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 12:54 pm

Quoting Lowecur (Reply 32):
With oil above $60bbl, the long stage routes are a footnote of losses and breakeven on the balance sheet.

Last I checked, long stage lengths are better when fuel is expensive. Ever wonder why EK and VS do so well? The lack of short-haul flights are a big part of their success.

Quoting Lowecur (Reply 32):
They understand the need to build out stations with an ability to overwelm the competition with more choices for travelers.

Why do they avoid competition where possible, then? Seems like their 'building out' is limited by a desire to avoid direct competition (in particular with WN, though also with NW and YX in some instances).
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
exFATboy
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:06 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 33):
Why do they avoid competition where possible, then? Seems like their 'building out' is limited by a desire to avoid direct competition (in particular with WN, though also with NW and YX in some instances).

Well, in fairness B6, FL, and F9 have all tried to avoid going head-to-head with the Canyon Blue Colossus whenever possible. Why bother when you could compete with the legacies instead? But thanks to Chapter 11 in many cases, legacies are more competitive now.

And with WN marching into DEN, I think we're starting to see the first big LCC-vs-LCC matchup. If YX/FL goes through, I think B6 and F9 will have to think again about a merger.
 
lowecur
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:11 pm

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 31):
I'm sure B6 was fine sacrificing ROC in return for expanding BOS - a city that FL has struggled to grow while B6 has grown there by leaps and bounds.

That's comparing apples and oranges. BOS is a large focus city and ROC is a low mid-size market. I would say the Baltimore Washington area has been more successful for FL than B6. Both carriers have their niche market focus cities on the East Coast that they do well in. BOS to me can only be a focus city and is limited by that. On the other hand, BWI's location gives it potential for a mini hub.

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 31):
It is apparent that JetBlue will fight back, and it's also apparent that ROC expansion was not a point of interest for B6.

Jetblue can fight back, but they are on their heels at this point and need direction. ROC was B6's if they wanted it, but they chose to expand to cities with a few flts per day to JFK.

Don't get me wrong, B6 still has time to get their act together but they need to get moving quickly. They need a midpoint hub in the worst way and they will probably get stuck with the high cost STL, when they could have had low cost DIA much the way WN did. In order to do some of these things, they will have to carve out unprofitable cities and this is something that leaves a bad taste in Barger's mouth. He knows if you pull out you lose credibility with airport mgt and pax in those cities if he ever intends to go back in at some point in the future. He just has to get it through his head that he needs to do what's best for the airline at this point, and forget about trying to please everyone.
 
CitrusCritter
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:19 pm

Quoting ExFATboy (Reply 33):
If YX/FL goes through, I think B6 and F9 will have to think again about a merger.

I fail to see the connection. FL does not compete with F9. In fact, they seem to be rather friendly. If anything, given their focus on expanding in the west and transcons, B6 is beginning to compete with F9. An FL/F9 codeshare alliance makes the most sense...it benefits F9 as they are the smallest of the LCCs, and it gives FL a boost in the battle with B6. Unless the FL-F9 relationship sours, what benefit would F9 have to be folded into B6? For that matter, why would B6 want the endless pit that is DEN these days?

However, I tend to think that FL and B6 do not really compete against each other except on the NY-FL routes and in the northeast (BOS primarily). Their focus is different otherwise. B6 is growing their transcon and Pacific Coast flying. FL is growing their Middle America flying. FL has shown little interest in growing out west other than limited transcons to ATL, IND, and MCO. If both airlines weren't so heavily invested in the NY-FL routes, you could almost make a case for agreements between them...just because you focus on the same general price range doesn't mean you are automatically competing to the death. FL is much more similar to WN than B6. I've flown both airlines extensively, and to make a sweeping generalization that I've always felt, B6 is the yuppie's airline, whilst FL is the budget-concious family's airline, much more akin to WN.

[Edited 2007-07-17 06:20:15]
 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:45 pm

ROC is an example of how AirTran has built on their strength (leisure routes) but has not put out the effort needed to build a needed new area: business-oriented dot connecting. They started ROC in March 2002 with 2x ATL and 2x BWI, and quickly added a fifth to MCO. Since then, they've stabilized at 3x BWI, 2x to 3x ATL, 1x TPA, 1x MCO (2x only one year), and on-and-off seasonal FLL. (According to MAH4656 in another thread, ROC-FLL is coming back daily for this winter). BWI supports three dailies IMO because of connecting traffic to Florida; my 5-6x annual flights on that route always have lots of connecting baggage tags at the carousel.

From ROC, JetBlue as several noted has been content to run JFK-only, at about 5x-6x daily. All reports I read indicate that they consistently get good loads and yields on this route. They established themselves very quickly in ROC after they arrived in 2000; I'm not sure why they never started Florida nonstops. Remember they didn't at BUF or SYR either for years; maybe they figured there were higher yields to be sought elsewhere. Now that they're discovering the world isn't all low-hanging fruit, and JFK is a congested mess, they're turning attention back to Upstate. We'll see if ROC gets an FLL nonstop; I doubt it now that AirTran is reviving theirs for this winter.

I've never been convinced that AirTran needed to fail on the ROC-BOS route they ran for six months last year. They hardly promoted it and gave up very soon. Did they really think US was just going to fold up and go away like they did on the lower-traffic ROC-BWI route? It's not 2002 any more, and US has slimmed down under an aggressive, empire-building CEO. It's an example of a wider AirTran strategic problem--refusal to fight to connect dots that don't come easy. EG their withdrawals on MDW-DFW, MDW-EWR.

Uncle Joe needs to realize the world isn't all low-hanging fruit. AirTran's got a good product and they've proven they can establish themselves in medium-size markets that in the 1990's were dominated by legacy carriers. Sure, some business dots were easy to connect, like CAK-LGA and PHF-LGA. But AirTran would do well financially to build up more business-oriented routes for the long term, by connecting some meidum-size dots to larger business dots, and more large dots to large dots. They seem to hold their own on MSP-MDW, which indicates that it can be done if they try.

B6 and FL have *lots* of new a/c coming online in the next few years, even with some delayed deliveries, B6 selling some older 320's, etc. AirTran in particular needs to start putting out some more work. They've got the product to do it. Now they need some effort.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
exFATboy
Posts: 1887
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:45 pm

Quoting CitrusCritter (Reply 35):
Unless the FL-F9 relationship sours, what benefit would F9 have to be folded into B6? For that matter, why would B6 want the endless pit that is DEN these days?

I meant it more from B6's perspective- while I agree B6 has a different target market and strategy than FL, I don't think B6 wants to let FL continue to snap up Midwestern market share, and if you accept the premise that B6 is going to need a hub/focus city/whatever somewhere between the coasts, there aren't a lot of choices. They can't go into Dallas without triggering a war with AA (and WN if they wait until the Wright Amendment finishes its slow, lingering death), CO has IAH locked up, no slots available at Chicago (at least not in prime time), AA is re-establishing STL to some degree...where else is there? Presuming you're not going to build an outright "hub" - they could do that at Omaha, or Kansas City - but want a connection/focus city with significant local O&D, as JetBlue's strategy has always called for so far. The only other alternative I see is perhaps Nashville?

Yes, DEN has issues, big issues. But it's a major O&D market, and F9 has all those routes to Mexico, which would fit nicely with B6's international strategy. And while the FL alliance works well for F9 now, it's possible that a merger with B6 would help them survive the onslaught of WN at DEN better than the alliance. I'm not sure - how much cash on hand does F9 have these days?
 
CitrusCritter
Posts: 770
Joined: Wed May 30, 2007 10:36 am

RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:46 pm

Quoting Lowecur (Reply 34):
That's comparing apples and oranges. BOS is a large focus city and ROC is a low mid-size market. I would say the Baltimore Washington area has been more successful for FL than B6. Both carriers have their niche market focus cities on the East Coast that they do well in. BOS to me can only be a focus city and is limited by that. On the other hand, BWI's location gives it potential for a mini hub.

Don't forget that so far as the Baltimore-Washington area goes, FL is at DCA and flies slap full on every flight out of there. I think they're at 5x daily to ATL and 1x daily to RSW, plus a Saturday-only frequency to MCO.

FL -
- DCA - 5xATL, 1xRSW

- IAD - 7xATL, 2xMCO

- BWI - 7xATL, 10xBOS, 3xDAY, 2xDFW, 3xCLT, 3xFLL, 1xRSW, 2xMKE, 4xMCO, 3xPWM, 3xROC, 1xSRQ, 1xSEA, 3xTPA

- BOS - 2xCAK, 6xATL, 10xBWI, 4xMDW, 2xPHF, 2xMCO, 3xPHL

B6 -

- IAD - 5xBOS, 2xFLL, 1xLAS, 4xLGB, 5xJFK, 3xOAK, 2xMCO, 1xSAN

- BOS - 1xAUA, 1xAUS, 1xBDA, 4xBUF, 1xCUN, 1xCLT, 1xCMH, 1xDEN, 2xFLL, 1xRSW, 1xLAS, 3xLGB, 1xNAS, 9xJFK, 2xOAK, 4xMCO, 2xPIT, 2xRIC, 1xSAN, 2xSFO, 1xSJC, 1xSEA, 2xTPA, 5xIAD, 1xPBI

So, B6 serves a bunch of cities from BOS, but at low frequency outside of JFK, IAD, and BUF. All told, FL has 29 flights at BOS, B6 has 51.

At IAD itself, B6 has 23 flights, whilst FL has 9. But when you count the entire Washington Metro area, FL has 62.

Summary: B6 has built up a significant Boston operation, while FL has built up a significant Baltimore-Washington operation. In fact, the two nearly mirror each other. Which would you rather have? Well I'd rather have Baltimore-Washington myself, especially with those DCA slots. But clearly the build-up at the two stations fits into what each carrier is doing, and it's pretty different. B6 is the dominant LCC in the northeast, FL is the dominant LCC is the southeast. B6 has a low-frequency, large number of stations approach (witness all those 1x daily flights), while FL is on the WN tack at high-frequency, fewer stations.
 
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tomascubero
Posts: 415
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RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:52 pm

Though a lot of discussion on inter-USA routes, has anybody thought about Intl expansion to Central & or Latin America? Spirit is doing great on its SJO/GUA/SAP and MGA and a couple more destinations down here which I can't remember at the time, served from FLL, and I am sure that they could grab a slice of low fares on a JFK-SJO route, since right now Lacsa dominates JFK with their monopoly, which is due to change in January when DAL opens up JFK-SJO with 752. CO has EWR which is close too and gets a good ammount on pax, having up to two daily flights on selected days in the low season (now) and permanent 2x daily in high season. B6 could have the option of LGB-SJO but for the West Coast, seems LAX is the main destination for SJO plus I guarantee you the 320 would have a weight restrciton on all flights since Lacsa has when the rarely operate the A320 SJO-LAX-SJO (scheduled type is A319).

Excuse my ignorance but B6 has flights originating from both MCO and FLL right? If that is so, they could even cut them selves a slice of that FLL-SJO market that Spirit dominates now with two daily flights and recently AA announced it with 738 by the end of this year. And from MCO, well I can tell you there is a huge market for Orlando/Disney and for shopping from SJO. If I tell you an MP flight which is meant to be a "shuttle" flight for the MP MCO-AMS flight, is dominated by local passengers taking the opportunity to fly the only nonstop flight to MCO from SJO and I have heard it is going to be ceased once MP stops flying to MCO, so that could be another great option.

Cheers,
Tomas.

[Edited 2007-07-17 06:54:19]
 
CitrusCritter
Posts: 770
Joined: Wed May 30, 2007 10:36 am

RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:57 pm

Quoting ExFATboy (Reply 37):
And while the FL alliance works well for F9 now, it's possible that a merger with B6 would help them survive the onslaught of WN at DEN better than the alliance. I'm not sure - how much cash on hand does F9 have these days?

Well I'm not sure getting folded into B6 is "surviving" from F9's perspective. F9's financials show $200mn in cash/cash equivalents on hand and short-term assets at $340mn to arrive at total assets at just over $1bn. I wouldn't count F9 out just yet...they do need to get a codeshare with FL going. I wonder what the true story is on the the FL/F9 codeshare rumor that pops up every few weeks?

As to a central hub for B6, well DL is throwing away CVG. That place is definitely ripe for LCC competition. FL tried CVG but DL predictably went nuts and pushed them out. I imagine DL would add capacity and take other measures on CVG-JFK, but I think B6 could weather it better than FL.

Quoting DCA-ROCguy (Reply 36):
I've never been convinced that AirTran needed to fail on the ROC-BOS route they ran for six months last year

Ditto. They have a bad habit of not fighting a route out long enough. The same thing happend at DFW. The airline business is cutthroat...almost kind of a game of chicken and Joe tends to blink quicker than the other guy. Profitability is always very important in a public company, but a few loss making quarters ought to be acceptable, if it meant really establishing some long-term business routes to help ensure long-term profitability. BTW, welcome to my respected user's list.
 
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SANFan
Posts: 3744
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 3:04 pm

Quoting GoBlue (Thread starter):
What is happening at JetBlue? They only have 4 new routes listed up until November 1st, and they have many aircraft arriving that they will need to deploy.

To get back to the original question, and along the lines of something I alluded to in reply 19, perhaps Blue is dragging their feet a bit right now as they wait to see exactly what Virgin America is going to unfold (any day now, I hope.)

We are all pretty sure that SFO-JFK will be THE first route (probably not the best news B6 has gotten in 2007) but it is possible that that news may be shortly followed by OTHER VX announcements involving flights to both JFK and IAD! A result could be that B6 will feel pressure to get into LAX; another possibility is B6 might decide to dive into the intra-CA (or intra-west coast) market. It could radically change the trans-con scene from Blue's perspective or compel them to finally establish a midwest hub, or push them to the merger table!

All I'm suggesting here is that the direction that Virgin takes off in next month could very well influence the next route moves of jetBlue who may just be holding their breath (and plans) to see what it will be...

bb
 
Rookinla
Posts: 259
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2005 9:57 am

RE: B6 Only 4 New Routes?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 3:24 pm

Quoting Tomascubero (Reply 39):
If I tell you an MP flight which is meant to be a "shuttle" flight for the MP MCO-AMS flight, is dominated by local passengers taking the opportunity to fly the only nonstop flight to MCO from SJO and I have heard it is going to be ceased once MP stops flying to MCO, so that could be another great option.

I definitely know that MCO-SJO is a very viable route and could be possible for a LCC in the future. I may be missing something but I haven't heard anything about MP dropping MCO. Do you have a source for this or is it a rumor?

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