B2443
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NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:20 pm

To make it complete: http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070716/20070716006033.html?.v=1

The DOT plans to award the routes in an expedited fashion. DOT has indicated a preference for a new entrant carrier in 2007, but remains open to other options. "Northwest is ready to start flying right away," said Neal Cohen, Northwest executive vice president - strategy and international. Northwest would use Boeing 747-400 aircraft for Detroit to Shanghai service, if selected for a 2007 award. "We're prepared to respect the DOT's wishes, but we think the public and the DOT should have a choice. Northwest would accept China frequencies in either or both years."

DOT remains open to other options?
 
PanAm747
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Tue Jul 17, 2007 3:12 pm

From what I have learned here, NW stands little chance of gaining additional frequencies, especially since what they are applying for is something they alread have - but they currently route all their flights through their NRT hub.

Should they wish to drop the stopover, they could fly DTW-China nonstop.

It would seem to make a good case for other airlines to be adding new service rather than NW's plea to expand what's already there.
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centrair
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Tue Jul 17, 2007 5:08 pm

I don't doubt that NW has the rights and abandon them due to SARs and other things in the late 1990s, but if they still have these rights why hasn't the press picked it up or the DOT said it bluntly to the world that NW will not get rights as they already have them. And since China slots are so in demand if the business is so great, why not just start the route tomorrow.

There is the A.net truth and then the real truth. Can someone clear A.net world from reality for me? (Please include evidence)
My name is Centrair but HND is closer. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
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jetjack74
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Tue Jul 17, 2007 8:11 pm

Quoting Centrair (Reply 2):
I don't doubt that NW has the rights and abandon them due to SARs and other things in the late 1990s, but if they still have these rights why hasn't the press picked it up or the DOT said it bluntly to the world that NW will not get rights as they already have them. And since China slots are so in demand if the business is so great, why not just start the route tomorrow.

From what was led to believe, those routes weren't ours, that they belonged to CA and we were leasing them for the DTW-PEK/PVG nonstops.
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B2443
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Wed Jul 18, 2007 2:37 am

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 3):
From what was led to believe, those routes weren't ours, that they belonged to CA and we were leasing them for the DTW-PEK/PVG nonstops

That is interesting...The Chinese airlines still have many un-used/un-applied-for rights. Couldn't NW do something similar with CZ (CZ having the route authority but uses NW metals) to fly DTW-China nonstop?
 
DFWEagle
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Wed Jul 18, 2007 6:03 am

Quoting Centrair (Reply 2):
I don't doubt that NW has the rights and abandon them due to SARs and other things in the late 1990s, but if they still have these rights why hasn't the press picked it up or the DOT said it bluntly to the world that NW will not get rights as they already have them. And since China slots are so in demand if the business is so great, why not just start the route tomorrow.

Currently, Northwest Airlines holds DOT authorities to serve the following routes -:

ORD/SFO/LAX/SEA/HNL - Beijing
ORD/SFO/LAX/SEA/HNL - Shanghai
ORD/SFO/LAX/SEA/HNL - Guangzhou
DTW - Beijing

All of the routes may be served with an intermediate stop in Japan, which is how Northwest chooses to operate them. As you can see, they actually no longer have the DTW-PVG authority, although they do still have DTW-PEK.

Separate from the route authorities are the frequency allocations. Northwest has 21 weekly combination frequencies, which can be used on any of the routes that they have authority for.

In these latest China applications, Northwest is applying for the DTW-PVG authority (which they don’t currently have), as well as 7 weekly frequencies which they would use to operate the route. They may not get the authority AND the frequencies they want if the DOT believes that by stopping in Japan, NW is not using the frequencies they already have to the maximum benefit for the US public.

For NW, the frequencies are what is hard to obtain, not the route authority. If NW applied for the DTW-PVG authority alone and said they were going to use one of their existing 21 frequencies for it, then the DOT would grant the authority straight away if they thought it would provide a greater benefit to the US public than the current situation.

NW won’t do this however because it is far more profitable for them to operate via Tokyo, where they can capture the massive West Coast markets of LAX/SFO (and to a lesser extent SEA and PDX), as well as Japanese fifth freedom traffic. The market they could capture from Detroit is far smaller.

Quoting Centrair (Reply 2):
There is the A.net truth and then the real truth. Can someone clear A.net world from reality for me? (Please include evidence)

The list of US carrier international route authorities is available on the DOT website. Northwest’s China routes are listed on page 122 of the following pdf -:
http://ostpxweb.dot.gov/aviation/intav/country.pdf

Northwest’s China routes were granted and are renewed under the following DOT dockets -:
OST-97-3177
OST-95-969
Go to the following link, type ‘3177’ or ‘969’ in the ‘Docket number’ field and press ‘search’ to see and read the appropriate documents.
http://dms.dot.gov/search/searchFormSimple.cfm

Hope this helps
Ryan / HKG
 
B2443
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Wed Jul 18, 2007 9:18 am

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 5):
NW won’t do this however because it is far more profitable for them to operate via Tokyo, where they can capture the massive West Coast markets of LAX/SFO (and to a lesser extent SEA and PDX), as well as Japanese fifth freedom traffic. The market they could capture from Detroit is far smaller.

So its nobody's fault that they won't get anything (authorities nor frequencies) till 2010.
 
centrair
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Wed Jul 18, 2007 10:41 am

I read the documents and got a little confused by the legal jargon. But technically NW could start Non-stop from ORD/SFO/LAX/SEA/HNL to PEK, PVG or CAN anytime they want? But they can't do it from their current main hubs.

NORTHWEST AIRLINES GUANGZHOU, CHINA HONOLULU, OAHU, 99-2-8 2/5/99 378
NORTHWEST AIRLINES GUANGZHOU, CHINA LOS ANGELES, CA 99-2-8 2/5/99 378
NORTHWEST AIRLINES GUANGZHOU, CHINA CHICAGO, ILLINO 99-2-8 2/5/99 378
NORTHWEST AIRLINES GUANGZHOU, CHINA SEATTLE, WASHIN 99-2-8 2/5/99 378
NORTHWEST AIRLINES GUANGZHOU, CHINA SAN FRANCISCO, 99-2-8 2/5/99 378
NORTHWEST AIRLINES GUANGZHOU, CHINA ANCHORAGE, AK O 04-10-8 10/18/04 EXEMCARGO
NORTHWEST AIRLINES BEIJING, CHINA HONOLULU, OAHU, 99-2-8 2/5/99 378
NORTHWEST AIRLINES BEIJING, CHINA LOS ANGELES, CA 99-2-8 2/5/99 378
NORTHWEST AIRLINES BEIJING, CHINA CHICAGO, ILLINO 99-2-8 2/5/99 378
NORTHWEST AIRLINES BEIJING, CHINA SEATTLE, WASHIN 99-2-8 2/5/99 378
NORTHWEST AIRLINES BEIJING, CHINA SAN FRANCISCO, 99-2-8 2/5/99 378
NORTHWEST AIRLINES BEIJING, CHINA DETROIT, MICHIGAN 1/12/2008 12/10/01 378
NORTHWEST AIRLINES SHANGHAI, CHINA HONOLULU, OAHU, 99-2-8 2/5/99 378
NORTHWEST AIRLINES SHANGHAI, CHINA LOS ANGELES, CA 99-2-8 2/5/99 378
NORTHWEST AIRLINES SHANGHAI, CHINA CHICAGO, ILLINO 99-2-8 2/5/99 378
NORTHWEST AIRLINES SHANGHAI, CHINA SEATTLE, WASHIN 99-2-8 2/5/99 378
NORTHWEST AIRLINES SHANGHAI, CHINA SAN FRANCISCO, 99-2-8 2/5/99 378
NORTHWEST AIRLINES CHINA U.S. POINTS O5-3-40 3/29/05 828 CARGO
NORTHWEST AIRLINES SHANGHAI, CHINA ANCHORAGE, AK O 04-10-8 10/18/04 EXEMCARGO

If I remember right, back in the 1990s NW had a lot of international flights from ORD. I flew from ORD-NRT and NRT-ORD back in 1994. Actually my return was SHA-NRT-ORD (on a brand new 744 and an old 742...great trip)

So NW's current arguement is that it wants to fly from DTW and MSP, its current main hubs, to China. Why not just ask for an amendment to the current agreements concerning route 378 and change Chicago to Detroit?

And as the thread states they are looking at DTW-PVG/PEK. They can start DTW-PEK tomorrow...why not just do it? They could still have DTW-NRT-PEK but change the number of the flight and then add the non-stop with the current number or is this not allowed? What I am getting at is how NW can use its current rights as well as ask for more.
My name is Centrair but HND is closer. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
Flighty
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Wed Jul 18, 2007 10:47 am

So what if NW already has frequencies. So does UA, and AA and CO each have one.

NW knows it cannot politically win more NRT slots, but those NRT China flights are probably very stinking profitable. So they will never be cut... ever!

Meanwhile, NW wants more slots and I think they deserve at least one. They are proposing good service just like everybody else, as an incumbant.
 
Norcal773
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Wed Jul 18, 2007 10:50 am

I received an email from NW about this too. Something about voting for the petition which I did. Their claim about DFW being a 'world-class' transit airport is bogus though. I'd rather see AA get this route but their pilots need to get their act together and not throw it down the toilet like they did with the other recent AA application.
If you're going through hell, keep going
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Wed Jul 18, 2007 11:02 am

DTW-PEK/PVG was terminated since it was not profitable post 9/11.
Which leads me to believe, that part of the reason that they have not restarted the route using current slots that are used xxx-NRT-China is because DTW-China will still not currently be profitable with the 744. The current routing through NRT is apparently more profitable.

The proposal states that if selected in 2007 they would use the 744, or if selected in 2009 they will use the 787. Obviously, NW feels that the 787 is the proper aircraft to use for DTW-China, but is willing to operate it at a loss for the time being with the 744, to get the slots, prior to the 787 being ready for service. The 220 seat 787 makes a lot more sense to use on DTW-China than a 400 seat 744, which undoubtedly would probably not fill up, particularly up front. If it were projected to be such a gold mine, then NW would want to keep a 744 on the route, not reduce capacity down to the 787.

Think about this....is there really enough demand to fill a 400 seat aircraft (of which has 65+ World Business Class seats) daily to China from DTW, a route that would rely on a significant number of connecting passengers? Most everyone else, DL, AA, CO are all looking to use 220 +/- seat 777's on the route. A 744 may work from JFK, LAX, ORD, or SFO, but not for a connecting hub alone.

Which leads to my final thought, that the airlines are tripping over themselves to get China authorities on routes that may or may not be the most profitable in the end. Prestege - you bet! A lot of wishful thinking that the route will grow - absolutley!
 
centrair
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Wed Jul 18, 2007 11:16 am

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 10):
A 744 may work from JFK, LAX, ORD, or SFO, but not for a connecting hub alone.

Isn't UA using a 744 on IAD-PEK? Politicians up front? Who is in back..their assistants and who?

But I see what you are saying. A 744 has the legs and can do the cargo, but is a little too big for the route. China is a growing economy but the average Zhang in China can barely afford a flight to Tokyo let alone the US and getting the visa is even harder. The movement is more of Americans and Chinese-Americans going to China and returning and not carrying local traffic to the US. This is why the Japanese routes actually make money...Japanese people have MONEY and ability to move freely. Also the Japanese-Chinese trade/business is flourishing (even though there are some major concerns right now about product safety) and Chinese tourism to Japan is rising thanks to some changes in agreements. NW needed the 787 yesterday I guess.
My name is Centrair but HND is closer. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
B2443
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Thu Jul 19, 2007 3:13 am

Perhaps NW itself knows it has zero chance to get addtional China authorities/frequncies thru 2009 and it is waiting for the arrival of 787s. Their Plan B might be just convert one-stop DTW-PEK to nonstop with 787s in 2008 or Plan C: do nothing.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Thu Jul 19, 2007 3:31 am

Exactly...we don't know what we don't know.

NW applied for 2007 basically just for the heck of it, knowing they probably don't have a chance, but they might as well give it a shot. If they can shift slots accordingly they always could do a plan B as you mention and start a flight with the 787 next year. Interestingly enough they have been talking up how the first route/routes for the 787 will be DTW-Asia, but are very quiet on what destinations this could be. They very well just may be waiting to relaunch DTW-China with the 787, regardless of the outcome in 2007.
 
dutchjet
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Thu Jul 19, 2007 4:46 am

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 13):
Exactly...we don't know what we don't know.

First, thanks so much for the honest and insightful analysis, it is appreciated.

NW's existing service to China and their application(s) for additional authority is a touchy subject. To summarize, NW has found an effective way to connect many cities in the US with their three existing destinations in China; by flying via the Narita hub, NW provides convenient service to many passengers travelling between the US and China and can do so at a profit.....its a good business plan. But, on the other hand, although NW can offer nonstop services between the US and China right now, the airline chooses not to and offers only services between the US and China via Japan.....it can be argued that NW is not using its valuable China authority to the best advantage. How all of this will effect NW's ability to gain new route awards in the future is unclear, but its probably safe to say that NW's current lack of nonstop US-CHina flights does not help its position.

Between now and 2009, US carriers will add six new routes between the US and China....reagrdless of the outcome of the applications for those new services, NW may have no choice but to launch nonstop US-China services in order to remain competitive.
 
Flighty
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Thu Jul 19, 2007 5:48 am

Of course DTW-PVG would be highly profitable.

Can NWA really fill a 747 DTW-China? Yes. Could they fill 4 of them daily? Probably, yes.

DTW isn't just a "connect" market. It is a solid locale plus the BEST connect market, preferred every time from places such as DCA, LGA, PVD, BOS by virtue of its superior location and shorter journey times. Journey times are critical in Pacific flights.

Just because NRT-China was better than DTW does not prove (or even suggest) that DTW was unprofitable.

Even if it were unprofitable in 2001, or 1796 for that matter, China's economy has grown 10% annually since 1997, making China in 2009 about 3 times larger than it was in 1999. Also, the USA has grown a lot since then. And obviously, the industrial links between the USA and China have grown immensely in that time.

Can they fill 60 J class seats to Shanghai daily? If anything on Earth can, the Eastcoast-China can.

China is a long way from getting soaked with capacity. The market is skin tight, ignoring the Chinese airlines, which are not taken seriously by Americans.
 
dutchjet
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Thu Jul 19, 2007 5:50 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 15):
Of course DTW-PVG would be highly profitable.

Then why is NW not flying it right now with a 744?
 
azjubilee
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Thu Jul 19, 2007 8:08 am

I suggest everyone read the actual docket that NWA filed with the DOT. It does a very good job selling the red tail attributes for the new service. It also explains very clearly WHY they don't use the China authorities nonstop from DTW and choose to instead use NRT. After reading the docket, it makes even more sense and it reinforces everything I've thought about NWA to China/Asia. It also dispells the greatest theory that so many armchair quarterbacking CEO wannabes around here have: NWA is clueless and has no idea what they're doing.

http://dmses.dot.gov/docimages/pdf101/476613_web.pdf


AZJ
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Thu Jul 19, 2007 8:14 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 15):
Could they fill 4 of them daily? Probably, yes.

Thats a joke right?

Quoting Flighty (Reply 15):
DTW isn't just a "connect" market. It is a solid locale plus the BEST connect market, preferred every time from places such as DCA, LGA, PVD, BOS by virtue of its superior location and shorter journey times. Journey times are critical in Pacific flights.

DTW does have a great location and has a decent airport, but the local market isnt anything special. Detroit as a city has a dying economy, even though the outlying areas are still ok. I think what would be the selling point has nothing whatsoever to do with Detroit as a city. Dallas and Houston for example have much better and thriving economies than Detroit and both Texas cities are bigger. However the location that DTW is solid and its what if anything can sell this flight. Both Texas cities dont have good geographic locations.
It is what it is...
 
centrair
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Thu Jul 19, 2007 9:33 am

Quoting Azjubilee (Reply 17):
http://dmses.dot.gov/docimages/pdf101/476613_web.pdf

good read.

On their map they show my home-hometown airport (the one where I go at Xmas) CWA. CWA area is a major producer of ginseng for China and NW is the largest airline there not to mention the CRJ-900 maintainance facility.

Now I really want NW to get this more than ever.

Question. Let's say that NW gets additional frequencies. Could they move a frequency from DTW to MSP if needed? It had been talked about here on A.net a while back about NW going for DTW and MSP to China.
My name is Centrair but HND is closer. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
rwsea
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Thu Jul 19, 2007 9:43 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 16):
Then why is NW not flying it right now with a 744?

Because they don't want to shut out the highly profitable feed that they're currently getting from LAX, SFO, SEA, PDX, HNL and MSP. Moving flights to DTW would effectively remove NW from the LAX/SFO/PDX/SEA/HNL-China market.
 
SkyyMaster
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Thu Jul 19, 2007 9:44 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 8):
Meanwhile, NW wants more slots and I think they deserve at least one. They are proposing good service just like everybody else, as an incumbant.

Sooner or later NW will get the DTW-China n/s authority back, perhaps without having to forgo the NRT services. They will be at a disadvantage when other legacies are flying n/s to China from US hubs and their pax (NW) might still require 2 changes of plane to get there. Probably not before slots are handed out to newbies and a couple of incumbents like CO and/or AA. Speaking of which, I got my email from AA asking me to sign their petition for the ORD-PEK service, but I won't sign it since they bailed on DFW. That route I would have supported.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Thu Jul 19, 2007 9:47 am

Quoting SkyyMaster (Reply 21):
Speaking of which, I got my email from AA asking me to sign their petition for the ORD-PEK service, but I won't sign it since they bailed on DFW. That route I would have supported.

As did I. I wont sign it for the same reason. I wanted AA to have DFW-PEK, but I dont care about duplicate service to ORD-PEK.
It is what it is...
 
rwsea
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Thu Jul 19, 2007 11:00 am

After reading NW's application, I would say that they make a lot of sense. I generally don't support the "we should get the frequencies because so and so has a bunch already" argument, but NW makes good points that they shouldn't be ignored simply because they fly China-Japan while UA continually gets more and more frequencies. NW also has a strength in that DTW has higher O&D numbers than either ATL or PHL and much better serves the eastern part of the country (whether we're talking about how close the route is to the great circle, delays at each airport, or ease of connectivity).

I've read all of the entrants proposals, and this one definitely beats DL and US in my book. I think NW, CO, and perhaps AA are the best use of the PVG/PEK frequencies.

That said, I find NW's assertion that DTW is "the largest and most successful US airline hub gateway to Asia" is pretty laughable. Obviously UA at SFO is a bigger operation and serves a much wider-variety of destinations.
 
azjubilee
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Thu Jul 19, 2007 12:37 pm

Sort of off topic, but the CRJ900 mx facility is not CWA Centrair. CWA is exclusively for the saabs the new CRJ mx facility has yet to be announced. Until then, they're done on the line in MSP and once in DTW, they'll be done in the hanger.


As for NWA... yes, they do make a very good case. I hope they get it!


AZJ
 
SFORunner
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:07 pm

Quoting Azjubilee (Reply 17):
It also explains very clearly WHY they don't use the China authorities nonstop from DTW and choose to instead use NRT.



Quoting Azjubilee (Reply 17):
http://dmses.dot.gov/docimages/pdf101/476613_web.pdf

Let's see:

Quote:
Northwest would bring first nonstop-to-nonstop Shanghai service to 18 U.S. cities, and U.S.-Beijing service to 20 U.S. cities that lack this important convenience today. NW-115, 116. For example, Duluth, MN, Tri Cities, TN, Shreveport, LA, and Bangor, ME, would all receive first nonstop-to-nonstop service to Shanghai and Beijing.

Awesome. I find DLH - PVG constantly oversold.

Quote:
Northwest urgently needs 14 additional frequencies to launch nonstop service to Shanghai and Beijing from Detroit -- without compromising China services via Narita -- Northwest’s “West Coast” hub.

Of course, most other airlines' "West Coast" hubs have connections to more USA cities than just HNL, LAX, PDX, SFO, SEA, MSP, and DTW

Quote:
United is also the only carrier with a large Western hub that can utilize the highly restricted Guangzhou frequencies at issue in 2008.

Well, no one is stopping you from setting a up a hub on the "West Coast". Of course, NW's "Western" / "West Coast" hub already has service to CAN (i.e. NRT-CAN)

Quote:
The Department has awarded new frequencies to numerous carriers for service from Eastern U.S. hubs -- including United’s Washington Dulles service in the very last case. NW-132. This places Northwest at an increasing disadvantage in terms of competing for Eastern U.S. passengers against its largest rival in China. The public interest would be best served by allowing Northwest to meet this growing competition in the East without curtailing China service in the West.

Right. NW should be allocated a route because they don't have an Eastern US hub. No one is stopping NW from setting up a hub in IAD, PHL, or the NYC area.

Quote:
Asia is the “Undiscovered Continent” for the New Entrant Applicants - American, Continental, Delta, and US Airways Have Failed to Use Available Rights to Numerous Asian Countries

NW may not win any 2009 China frequency allocations, but at least they're going down swinging. There's a great chart listing the "other" Asian cities NW and UA fly to that the carriers listed above "have failed to use".

Quote:
Northwest Maximizes the Use of Existing Frequencies By Providing Nonstop-to-Nonstop China Connections From Seven U.S. Gateways

Nonstop-to-Nonstop = The same as one-stop! LOL.
 
Flighty
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:50 pm

Quoting SFORunner (Reply 25):
Right. NW should be allocated a route because they don't have an Eastern US hub. No one is stopping NW from setting up a hub in IAD, PHL, or the NYC area.

I think they are just saying UA got a nice flight, and they want one like that too. Their Eastern hub is DTW, and is a source of pride for NWA.

Quoting SFORunner (Reply 25):
Quote:
Northwest would bring first nonstop-to-nonstop Shanghai service to 18 U.S. cities, and U.S.-Beijing service to 20 U.S. cities that lack this important convenience today. NW-115, 116. For example, Duluth, MN, Tri Cities, TN, Shreveport, LA, and Bangor, ME, would all receive first nonstop-to-nonstop service to Shanghai and Beijing.

Awesome. I find DLH - PVG constantly oversold.

Yes... this argument is getting very weak for NWA and others. Don't play up the small towns. Instead tell us how DTW supplies the entire East region with lightning quick trips to China, faster than ORD, faster than ATL, or PHL. Plus, their 747 holds the most people. This is about transportation, isn't it?
 
SFORunner
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Thu Jul 19, 2007 2:15 pm

Quoting Azjubilee (Reply 17):
http://dmses.dot.gov/docimages/pdf101/476613_web.pdf



Quoting Flighty (Reply 26):
Plus, their 747 holds the most people. This is about transportation, isn't it?

Transportation, pax not necessarily taking priority ....

Quote:
If selected for 2007 service, Northwest will operate large capacity 747-400 aircraft. As the Department observed in the Instituting Order, supply is currently constrained, and there is a critical need for the large amount of capacity Northwest’s proposal will deliver. Due to the length of haul, Northwest will impose a seat block of 68 seats, giving an effective capacity of 335 seats.



Quote:
*DTWPVG will be operated as a 335 seat aircraft (68 seat block due to payload limitations)

Does UA impose any similar pax seat block on ORD - PVG? Mister Great Circle Mapper says ORD - PVG is a scant 69 nm shorter than DTW - PVG.
 
vega
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Thu Jul 19, 2007 2:35 pm

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 23):
DTW has higher O&D numbers than either ATL or PHL

That is absolutely incorrect in both cases. Significantly incorrect.
We are but a moment in this vast Universe and when gone we will never have existed.
 
nwab787techops
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Thu Jul 19, 2007 10:40 pm

I've looked and can't find any other airline thats put in for 2007 service other then NWA. It looks like NWA is the only airline with an aircraft on hand to start this year.
 
B2443
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Thu Jul 19, 2007 10:52 pm

Quoting SFORunner (Reply 27):
Does UA impose any similar pax seat block on ORD - PVG? Mister Great Circle Mapper says ORD - PVG is a scant 69 nm shorter than DTW - PVG.

UA's 744s are configured differently than those of NWs. They have 347 seats in 3 classes so no seat block is needed. See http://www.united.com/page/article/0,6722,3071,00.html

Quoting Azjubilee (Reply 17):
It also explains very clearly WHY they don't use the China authorities nonstop from DTW and choose to instead use NRT.

In other words, DTW doesn't work for NW on PVG/PEK using 744s even with all the 'catchment's and its superior WorldGateway and "blanking" of the east. But I am not sure things will change much for DTW in the next 5 years. What they described (as reasons) was true 5 years ago.

If UA can make ORD with 744 work, why can't NW? They both cover the east and southeast US pretty well. If NW flies the schedule they proposed, there'd be more connecting flights at DTW than ORD. So why nonstop DTW-China doesn't work, while UA's ORD ("lagendary" delays as NW puts it) works? the O/D? Star Alliance?
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Fri Jul 20, 2007 12:07 am

Quoting B2443 (Reply 30):
If UA can make ORD with 744 work, why can't NW? They both cover the east and southeast US pretty well. If NW flies the schedule they proposed, there'd be more connecting flights at DTW than ORD. So why nonstop DTW-China doesn't work, while UA's ORD ("lagendary" delays as NW puts it) works? the O/D? Star Alliance?

O&D. ORD has a large O&D to China whereas DTW does not. Another thing that might help is that ORD is further west and can pull from cities that are futher west easier (such as the Texas cities). That makes it slightly more inclusive. But the O&D is really the main reason, not the later.
It is what it is...
 
azjubilee
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Fri Jul 20, 2007 12:26 am

B2443 - you completely missed the point. DTW will work for NWA, that's why they want to do this! It's just that at the moment given the slots they have to play with, using them from the NRT hub make more sense. If/when they get the slots in addition to the current ones, they'll fly from DTW. After all, that's the whole point of the application. NWA is a different airline with a far superior cost structure than the NWA of pre ch11.

I don't understand why everyone who apparently read the docket still can't understand what's going on here?



AZJ
 
B2443
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Fri Jul 20, 2007 1:10 am

Quoting Azjubilee (Reply 32):
I don't understand why everyone who apparently read the docket still can't understand what's going on here?

I think everyone sees NW's reasoning but still unconvinced. Hope DOT gets it. But that is exactly the same reasoning they gave to DOT in the last round. What's new in this round from DOT's stand point?

Quoting Azjubilee (Reply 32):
B2443 - you completely missed the point. DTW will work for NWA, that's why they want to do this!

But clearly DTW-PVG doesn't work as well as XXX-NRT-PVG at the moment for NW. And why is that? In the end a 744 goes to PVG, it's either you fit it at NRT, or at DTW and DTW loses.
 
rwsea
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Fri Jul 20, 2007 1:20 am

Quoting Vega (Reply 28):
That is absolutely incorrect in both cases. Significantly incorrect.

Then provide the data to prove it!
 
azjubilee
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Fri Jul 20, 2007 1:22 am

They can't have their cake and eat it too... thtat's the whole point of this filing. NWA can make China service work from both NRT and DTW... but they can't do both right now. More people stand to lose if NWA stops flying to China from NRT. NWA customers in the states in the DTW catchment area have access to China... they just have to make an extra stop. NWA will better be able to serve all their customers and the people in the US best, if they have nonstop and NRT China flights. What is so unconvincing about their filing?


AZJ
 
B2443
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Fri Jul 20, 2007 1:40 am

Quoting Azjubilee (Reply 35):
What is so unconvincing about their filing?

...that they can not do DTW-PVG non-stop now. It did not work for DOT.
 
azjubilee
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Fri Jul 20, 2007 1:56 am

I must not be seeing your point... NWA thinks they can do it... that's why they're applying for it! I don't understand how their proposal for nonstop DTW-China service is unconvincing. It seems like they did a good job selling the need for their service and what they can provide DTW and the entire eastern region of the US.


AZJ
 
deltal1011man
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Fri Jul 20, 2007 2:09 am

Quoting Nwab787techops (Reply 29):
I've looked and can't find any other airline thats put in for 2007 service other then NWA. It looks like NWA is the only airline with an aircraft on hand to start this year.

DL has applied for ATL-PVG and if they have to will take a T7(772ER) off a route till the 2 77Ls get here jan 08
New airliners.net web site sucks....
Also the mods want to kill free speech and prevent people from saying things like the above. Better say nothing about awesomeness for this place or else!
 
Flighty
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Fri Jul 20, 2007 2:12 am

United PEK/PVG slots: 5

NW PEK/PVG slots: 2

AA: 1
CO: 1
DL: 1
US: 1 probably

So the question is, who gets the last 3 slots in 2009 to add to the above totals.

NW isn't asking for the moon here. They have decades of experience and commitment to the market. They have 747s. They have a good hub. Surely that must count for something.

The NRT flights aren't just for Japan. The NRT hub has also been the bedrock of US-China links for decades now. NW should not be capriciously punished for that.
 
dutchjet
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Fri Jul 20, 2007 3:09 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 39):
United PEK/PVG slots: 5

NW PEK/PVG slots: 2

AA: 1
CO: 1
DL: 1
US: 1 probably

So the question is, who gets the last 3 slots in 2009 to add to the above totals.

Who gets the last three........DL, CO and AA; thus each of AA, CO, DL and NW will have two slots (one for PEK and one for PVG for each airline, plus NW has the CAN service), US will end up with one slot (probably PEK) and UA will remain with 5 PEK/PVG slots (nothing new will be granted) plus CAN. It will then be an even playing field which is good for competition and consumer choice. After 2009, there will be more liberalization and carriers will have more fliexibility.

As many of have been saying......NW already has access to the key PVG and PEK markets. NW's choice to serve these markets via Japan is a business decision (and its probably a good business decision, NW is likely making lots of money on its China flights). But NW's choice not to offer nonstop service between the US and China will not help NW in getting more access to China over the other airlines. NW can fly DTW-PEK right now if it wanted to and it does not, so why should NW now be granted an award to fly DTW-PVG?
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: NW Reapplies For DTW-PVG/PEK

Fri Jul 20, 2007 4:13 am

AZJ- thanks for posting the docket.

I suggest those of you read them, there is some good insight into what NW proposes to do.

I've read through NW, DL's, & US's.

I have to admit US is a little overzealous and the more I read it, I wish them luck. However, they are under consideration for a 2009 authority, but even by them they face a strong uphill battle getting into the market with their complete lack of Asia service, name recognition, and using their PHL gateway.

DL will get a China flight, I have no doubt in that, the question is will it be 2007 or 2009?
Their proposal is okay, but they lobby on the fact that because ATL is a huge hub it should get China service and because the Southeast doesn't have a nonstop.

Plus there a number of goofy statements like "the Southeast has more disposable income (something in the trillions) than other regions, thus they should have nonstop access to China." There are number of loosely connected data points, that I would really argue if there is a coorelation to anything relevant regarding China service. Including mentioning items about the number of shopping malls and the amount of retails sales in the region.
I will give you the fact that all of the applicants included a decent amount of fluff in their proposals, so DL alone isn't guilty of this one. However, it was a 16 MB file, nearly 300 pages long!

A few key points in NW's proposal:
-NW would start DTW-PVG within 60 days of approval, DL has said they need at least 150 days since they need to market the route and setup all of the logistics in China
-NW would use a 744, the larger capacity aircraft than the 777
-NW already has strong name recognition in China
-NW would be able to provide more competition toward United
-NW presents a stronger case due to corporate/industrial ties in region versus DL
-NW presents a case of stronger O&D in DTW than DL

In reality, NW does give some reasons as they why an incumbant should be choosen for the 2007 round, particularly since they are better prepared to start service on a shorter notice, whereas the new applicants could use the time between now and 2009 to better prepare. More or less, they wanted to provide a challenge to DL, opposed to basically letting them get rubber stamped for the 2007 round.

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 38):
DL has applied for ATL-PVG and if they have to will take a T7(772ER) off a route till the 2 77Ls get here jan 08

Read DL's filing, they won't begin service until the end of March 2008.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 40):
But NW's choice not to offer nonstop service between the US and China will not help NW in getting more access to China over the other airlines. NW can fly DTW-PEK right now if it wanted to and it does not, so why should NW now be granted an award to fly DTW-PVG?

As presented in the docket, if they were to do so currently, they would effectively hand the West Coast markets entirely over to United, thereby reducing competition in the market. Particularly in light of the fact that UA is basically uncontested in the 2008 CAN authority, and as NW points out, gaining significantly more access to China than anyone else.

Airlines are businesses, and they are competiting against each other. If you think NW was going to sit out of the application process and be content with what they have, then you are wrong. They are doing exactly what all of the other airlines are currently doing. We aren't going to settle it on A.net, so sit back and wait a few weeks and lets see what happens.

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