United Airline
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Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Fri Jul 20, 2007 11:27 am

MH is flying to South America and QF will do so soon. What about SQ and CX?

Or maybe Mexico?

[Edited 2007-07-20 04:35:43]
 
EddieDude
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Fri Jul 20, 2007 1:06 pm

Well, I don't know if MH's service to EZE from JNB will last much longer. I sure hope so, but it is said to be a loser operation for MH.

In addition to QF, NZ is also supposed to start flying to South America in the coming years, so Oceania and South America will be very well linked in the not so distant future (I think we all expect LA to continue flying to AKL and SYD after QF launches its own flights to SCL).

With respect to CX and SQ, it would be awesome to see them in Latin America, but the geography does not help much. While SQ has ultra-long-haul planes, I think they feel they are better off relying on connections with their codeshare and alliance partners. I recall not too long ago someone in this forum speculated that SQ might be interested in GRU and MEX, but I honestly don't think we will see any move in that direction soon.
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United Airline
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Fri Jul 20, 2007 1:18 pm

SQ/CX can have extensions from places like CPH or an Australian city maybe?

the Malaysian government wants MH to carry on. Not sure why
 
6thfreedom
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Fri Jul 20, 2007 1:36 pm

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 1):
In addition to QF, NZ is also supposed to start flying to South America in the coming years, so Oceania and South America will be very well linked in the not so distant future (I think we all expect LA to continue flying to AKL and SYD after QF launches its own flights to SCL).



Quoting United Airline (Reply 2):
SQ/CX can have extensions from places like CPH or an Australian city maybe?

The cost of the asset being away from base for such a long period of time would make it hard for a business case to stack up.

That being said, why would they want to do it in their own right.
They both have descent connections with alliance partners via North America, and perhaps by the end of next year SQ can connect on NZ via AKL, and CX on QF via SYD to South America!
 
Viscount724
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Sat Jul 21, 2007 5:43 am

Another problem with direct flights between Asia and South America is that you're also competing with almost all major European carriers, plus Transpacific carriers via USA/Canada From most major cities in Asia, it's shorter via Europe than via the Pacific, e.g. from SIN to GRU about 20% shorter..

Examples:
GRU-LAX-SIN: 12970 naut mi.
GRU-FRA-SIN: 10831 naut. mi.
GRU-SIN nonstop: 8644 naut. mi (Great Circle route pases south of Africa and over the Indian Ocean.)
 
United Airline
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Sat Jul 21, 2007 8:20 am

Can the B 777-200LR fly nonstop from HKG/SIN to South America?
 
Ryanair!!!
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Sat Jul 21, 2007 12:49 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 2):
SQ/CX can have extensions from places like CPH or an Australian city maybe?

CPH?? Why would SQ or CX fly all the way to Scandinavia and the loop the aircraft back down towards the Southern Hemishpere via the Atlantic?? South America offers very little business opportunities and if passenger numbers on the MAS flights are anything to go by, it should be an indication of how bad the route is performing. By the way, MAS has the distinction of being the only carrier from SE Asian to offer a flight to South America. Prestigious, despite the bleed. But bleeding to death nevertheless...

Quoting United Airline (Reply 2):
the Malaysian government wants MH to carry on. Not sure why

Simple, the route was created during Dr. M's time. His grand visions of propelling Malaysia into the 21st century has done wonders in many areas. However, some of his grand ideas still remain just that.

Post 9-11, the airline industry is now in a perpetual state of caution. No longer can airlines afford to stretch their network for the sake of prestige. Never before has the idea of code sharing and alliances been so important. Malaysia Airlines for that matter has been running too long on an idea that whatever happens, we will have back up. Several BTPs later, we have seen the new ruling government under the administration of Abdullah Badawi finally showing a strong fist when handling MAS, buck up or else...

Perhaps this time it is really working. But government ties and influences are still hard to shake off. While critics like to moan and groan about how "oh no here we go again", one must realise that MAS has run similarly since its formation in 1971 and it would take some time for the new work style to come into place.

Therefore, KUL-EZE will most likely remain for a while longer despite the under-performance of it. There is a very strong rumour that Dr. M has a ranch there which is why this route is still being kept alive despite critics questioning the existence. Although there were attempts to get SAA into some sort of code sharing alliance on the JNB-EZE sector, nothing seems to have come out of it.
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zeke
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Sat Jul 21, 2007 12:54 pm

CX will be venturing south...stay tuned....
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
GneissGuy
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Sat Jul 21, 2007 1:00 pm

Don't think SQ has any plans for that continent.......simply not enough premium traffic (which SQ thrives on).
 
777law
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Sat Jul 21, 2007 1:17 pm

I would agree that SQ really has no reason to open a direct route to South America. If you take GIG as an example, SQ can code share the following routes:

SIN-LHR-GIG code share with Virgin Atlantic

SIN-FRA-GIG code share with LH

SIN-JNB-GIG code share with SA

I imagine the pattern is largely the same for most destinations in South America. SQ can code share through Europe or South Africa without worrying about filling it's own flight(s) to South America. I don't think the demand in Asia for non-stop travel to South America is strong enough to justify the risk, especially when you have strong alliance connections with other airlines.
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kiwiandrew

RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Sat Jul 21, 2007 3:15 pm

Quoting 777law (Reply 9):
SIN-LHR-GIG code share with Virgin Atlantic

have I missed something ? there has been a lot of talk about VS starting to GIG but as far as I am aware that's all

Quoting 777law (Reply 9):
SIN-JNB-GIG code share with SA

I think you mean JNB-GRU - again , unless I have missed something SA do not fly to GIG
 
ZK-NBT
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Sat Jul 21, 2007 3:36 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 7):
CX will be venturing south...stay tuned....

Hmm nice. I'm not good geographically but since CX operate AKL once daily in the Northern Summer and twice daily in the Northern Winter maybe a HKG-AKL-SA flight could work 3x weekly with a 343?? So AKL could be 10 weekly in the Northern Summer and 17 weekly in the Northern Winter

CX117 HKG 1530 AKL 0740 CX118 AKL 0855 HKG 1530 Daily Northern Winter only 34D
CX107 HKG 2100 AKL 1305 CX108 AKL 1420 HKG 2100 Daily Year round 34D
CXxxx HKG 0100 AKL 1700 CXxxx AKL 1830 ??? 1300 3x weekly year round 34D
CXxxx ??? 2300 AKL 0500 CXxxx AKL 0630 HKG 1330

Maybe I'm dreaming but hey.
 
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zeke
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Sat Jul 21, 2007 3:47 pm

Quoting ZK-NBT (Reply 11):
Maybe I'm dreaming but hey.

South of USA, but not via AKL. AKL should be going twice daily year round, MEL 3 times daily, ADL daily.
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777law
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Sat Jul 21, 2007 4:04 pm

Quoting Kiwiandrew (Reply 10):
have I missed something ? there has been a lot of talk about VS starting to GIG but as far as I am aware that's all

http://www.airliners.net/open.file/1183121/M/

Looks like it.

Quoting Kiwiandrew (Reply 10):

I think you mean JNB-GRU - again , unless I have missed something SA do not fly to GIG

I'm not entirely sure about this one. I was recently talking to a colleague who occasionally travels between SIN and GIG. They said they usually connected through JNB. The flight to GIG may involve a second connection through GRU, but it was my understanding SIN-GIG was a single connection through JNB. I'll double check this.
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Motorhussy
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Sat Jul 21, 2007 5:08 pm

Quoting 777law (Reply 13):
The flight to GIG may involve a second connection through GRU, but it was my understanding SIN-GIG was a single connection through JNB.

SA connect through to GIG from JNB via GRU with codeshares on (predominantly) JJ and RG flights.

It's my opinion that because of ease of connections, slots, alliances etc AKL will be a great hub between Asia and South America particularly when NZ starts flights to LatAm. oneworld passengers can already connect from HKG daily with CX to SCL with LA (daily flights by year's end) and from SIN with QF changing at SYD. When NZ starts LatAm, SQ will no doubt codeshare with them and NZ flies more than daily to HKG for Star Alliance fliers.

Any likelihood of MH and AR joining SkyTeam? There has been speculation. That would give this alliance a link in AKL and with KE.

Regards
MH
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kiwiandrew

RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Sat Jul 21, 2007 5:21 pm

Quoting 777law (Reply 13):
http://www.airliners.net/open.file/1183121/M/

Looks like it.

I stand corrected - strange that it is not listed on VS website as a destination , unless it was a charter rather than a scheduled service - I notice that this photo
View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Bernardo Andrade

specifically mentions taking cruise passengers from the Queen Mary II back to the UK - there are only 4 photos in the whole database of VS a/c at GIG which , together with the abscence of any reference to GIG on VS website makes me wonder if they are an intermittent visitor rather than a scheduled operator ? Any VS insiders care to comment .... and sorry for going so far off topic .
 
A350XWB
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Sat Jul 21, 2007 9:53 pm

Quoting 777law (Reply 9):
SIN-LHR-GIG code share with Virgin Atlantic

SIN-FRA-GIG code share with LH

SIN-JNB-GIG code share with SA

none of these airlines sents own metal to GIG. LH & SA are flying to GRU, VS isn't flying to Brasil.

[Edited 2007-07-21 14:55:04]
 
airbazar
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Sat Jul 21, 2007 11:39 pm

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 4):
Examples:
GRU-LAX-SIN: 12970 naut mi.
GRU-FRA-SIN: 10831 naut. mi.

Actually FRA-JNB-SIN at 8700nm is by far the shortest path of all and SQ already flies to JNB and their passengers can transfer to their *A partner's (SA) flight to GRU.
 
B-HOP
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Sun Jul 22, 2007 1:16 am

CX will be venturing south...stay tuned....

Is it cargo or even pax to Mexico City, any news?

Kev
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Viscount724
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Sun Jul 22, 2007 8:48 am

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 17):
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 4):
Examples:
GRU-LAX-SIN: 12970 naut mi.
GRU-FRA-SIN: 10831 naut. mi.

Actually FRA-JNB-SIN at 8700nm is by far the shortest path of all and SQ already flies to JNB and their passengers can transfer to their *A partner's (SA) flight to GRU.

Assume you mean GRU-JNB-SIN. Agree, JNB is close to the great circle route.
 
lutfi
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Sun Jul 22, 2007 10:05 am

CX is looking at cargo flights to MEX
 
ZK-NBT
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Sun Jul 22, 2007 10:50 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 12):
South of USA, but not via AKL. AKL should be going twice daily year round, MEL 3 times daily, ADL daily.

Ok. Interesting AKL will only go twice daily from December this year rather than October. Is this due to aircraft avaliability?

Maybe a non stop from OZ to South America or via PPT?

MEL and ADL already announced.
 
777law
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Sun Jul 22, 2007 1:23 pm

Quoting A350XWB (Reply 16):
none of these airlines sents own metal to GIG. LH & SA are flying to GRU, VS isn't flying to Brasil.

Thanks for the correction. I should have used GRU as an example rather than GIG -- my bad.  whiteflag 

Despite my error, I think my basic point still holds: SQ has sufficient connections through *A, VS, etc. that it doesn't need to incur the risk of flying it's own metal to South America. On this basis, I think it is unlikely that we'll see SQ in South America anytime soon.
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United Airline
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Sun Jul 22, 2007 6:36 pm

Quoting B-HOP (Reply 18):
CX will be venturing south...stay tuned....

Cargo or pax? When?
 
LipeGIG
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Mon Jul 23, 2007 12:07 pm

Quoting 777law (Reply 9):
SIN-LHR-GIG code share with Virgin Atlantic

I wish this become real, even only the LHR-GIG flight with VS in the near future.


Felipe
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2travel2know
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Mon Jul 23, 2007 1:22 pm

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 19):
Assume you mean GRU-JNB-SIN. Agree, JNB is close to the great circle route.

The best candidate to take over MH KUL-Southamerica service would be SQ. They could be flying SIN-CPT/DUR/MRU-GRU and SIN-CPT-EZE.. As why CPT/DUR/MRU and not JNB, SA already flies JNB-GRU and maybe the Southafricans won't be keen to give SQ 5th right on one of thier most profitable routes.
The only way I would see SQ in MEX would be via YVR, YYC, SEA (?), SFO, LAX or LAS (?)
As for CX, I can only see them taking their own metal to MEX and/or GRU; MEX via Canada or U.S West Coast (even HNL), GRU via Southern Africa (but surely not JNB thanks to SA).
BR did give Latinamerica a try, TPE-LAX-PTY pre 9/11 days. A lot of TPE-PTY traffic actuallty was HKG-PTY. The Taiwanese company (BR) did get a push from the Taiwanese and Panamanian governments to operate the route. IMHO, PTY could sustain a twice weekly Asian flight, given the most convenient route, Asian point of origin and Airline. Still PTY might not be CX material yet.
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United Airline
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Mon Jul 23, 2007 3:03 pm

I doubt MH will suspend service to South America anytime soon since the Malaysian government doesn't want that to happen
 
cloudyapple
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Mon Jul 23, 2007 3:44 pm

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 25):
TPE-LAX-PTY

Panama is one of only 24 countries that has diplomatic ties with Taiwan. This route was flown was under pure politics. It was losing money by the bucket load and 9/11 was a perfect excuse to have it chopped.
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2travel2know
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Mon Jul 23, 2007 9:54 pm

Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 27):
Panama is one of only 24 countries that has diplomatic ties with Taiwan. This route was flown was under pure politics. It was losing money by the bucket load and 9/11 was a perfect excuse to have it chopped.

Actually CM starting LAX was the excuse used by BR to drop PTY; because BR was supposed to codeshare w/CM on the LAX-PTY-LAX route.
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EddieDude
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Tue Jul 24, 2007 2:08 am

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 25):
The only way I would see SQ in MEX would be via YVR, YYC, SEA (?), SFO, LAX or LAS (?)
As for CX, I can only see them taking their own metal to MEX and/or GRU; MEX via Canada or U.S West Coast (even HNL), GRU via Southern Africa (but surely not JNB thanks to SA).

I do not think the Mexican government, the U.S. government, the Mexican airlines and the U.S. airlines would be very happy to have a foreign airline operating with fifth freedom rights via the U.S. With our restrictive bilateral, foreign carriers don't really have much hope to secure traffic rights. MH had to stop serving MEX when its fifth freedom authority in MEX-LAX was terminated by the government. The only fifth freedom route I can think of involving Mexico is JL's NRT-YVR-MEX.
Next flights: MEX-LAX AM 738, LAX-PVG DL 77L, SHA-PEK CA 789, PEK-PVG CA A332, PVG-ORD MU 77W, ORD-MEX AM 738
 
airbazar
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Tue Jul 24, 2007 2:38 am

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 29):
I do not think the Mexican government, the U.S. government, the Mexican airlines and the U.S. airlines would be very happy to have a foreign airline operating with fifth freedom rights via the U.S.

Mexico may not allow it but there would be no opposition from the US. SQ already has rights to/from the US to a 3rd country. That is probably covered under the existing open skies agreement anyway. Off the top of my head, they currently transport passengers between JFK-FRA, SFO-ICN, SFO-HKG, LAX-TPE, LAX-NRT. There are other airlines that have similar rights, mainly IB from MIA, TN from LAX and I think JL from NYC. RG used to have similar right between LAX and Japan. So I'm pretty sure that if SQ wanted to operate between the US and MEX, there would be no opposition from the US side. Mexico agreeing to it would be a different story.
 
EddieDude
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:00 am

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 30):
So I'm pretty sure that if SQ wanted to operate between the US and MEX, there would be no opposition from the US side. Mexico agreeing to it would be a different story.

Those examples you quote in your post do not involve Mexico, and Mexico and the U.S. have a very specific bilateral which has sought to balance things for Mexican and U.S. carriers, so I am not so sure that the U.S. would readily allow Asian carriers to fly with traffic rights to Mexico from the U.S.

If SQ or CX or any other non-U.S. and non-Mexican carrier wanted to fly with traffic rights between a U.S. airport and a Mexican airport, I am sure that U.S. carriers holding authority for the same route would lobby quite intensely with the U.S. government so as to block such proposed service. Since the bilateral only allows for 2 or 3 carriers from each country operating fligths between specific city pairs, any foreign carrier with traffic rights would be unwelcome competition. The U.S. authorities may feel the pressure from U.S. airlines.

By way of example, suppose CX proposes to fly HKG-LAX-MEX. LAX-MEX is a route served by AM, MX, AS and UA, and no other Mexican carrier or U.S. carrier can fly this route. If CX gets its way, all of the four incumbents will suffer because CX will add substantial capacity to this market (upwards of 300 seats per day of flight), thus diluting the yields. Not only would AM and MX lobby the Mexican government to prevent this, but also AS and UA would lobby the U.S. government. Just my 2 cents.
Next flights: MEX-LAX AM 738, LAX-PVG DL 77L, SHA-PEK CA 789, PEK-PVG CA A332, PVG-ORD MU 77W, ORD-MEX AM 738
 
2travel2know
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Tue Jul 24, 2007 4:44 am

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 31):
Mexico and the U.S. have a very specific bilateral which has sought to balance things for Mexican and U.S. carriers, so I am not so sure that the U.S. would readily allow Asian carriers to fly with traffic rights to Mexico from the U.S.

For some odd U.S. - México route like a ONT-TLC maybe both the U.S. and México could grant SQ and CX traffic rights.. Same goes for an ANC-MEX..
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EddieDude
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Tue Jul 24, 2007 6:47 am

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 32):
For some odd U.S. - M?co route like a ONT-TLC maybe both the U.S. and M?co could grant SQ and CX traffic rights.. Same goes for an ANC-MEX..

I don't doubt it, but do you see CX or SQ flying to ONT? Neither do I.

As for ANC, is there a market for SIN/HKG-ANC and ANC-MEX? With regards to Mexico flights, I can only see ANC as a technical stop with very little demand for passenger service.
Next flights: MEX-LAX AM 738, LAX-PVG DL 77L, SHA-PEK CA 789, PEK-PVG CA A332, PVG-ORD MU 77W, ORD-MEX AM 738
 
2travel2know
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Tue Jul 24, 2007 7:36 am

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 33):
As for ANC, is there a market for SIN/HKG-ANC and ANC-MEX? With regards to Mexico flights, I can only see ANC as a technical stop with very little demand for passenger service.

ANC is kind of a cargo hub, so for the cargo part, there may not be a problem. Also I see Artic berries, Alaska Salmon and King Crabs being exported to HKG/SIN/MEX. For passengers, there's always the niche Summer tourist market to Alaska (Asian and Mexicans with disposable income could appreciate Alaskan nature) and some oil business traffic between Alaska and the Mexican oil fields.
Even with that, a SIN/HKG-MEX route on B747 Combi won't be able to support anything more than a twice/thrice weekly service.
BTW, it seems that ANC is the only U.S. airport which allows TOWV. Is this true?
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United Airline
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Tue Jul 24, 2007 8:03 am

CX is already doing a technical stop at ANC on its way between Toronto and Hong Kong. So why not pick up and offload passengers MIND AS WELL?
 
Viscount724
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RE: Should CX/SQ Give South America A Go?

Tue Jul 24, 2007 9:21 am

Quoting United Airline (Reply 35):
CX is already doing a technical stop at ANC on its way between Toronto and Hong Kong. So why not pick up and offload passengers as well?

Probably so few potential passengers it wouldn't be worth the expense of having check-in and baggage handling staff available. I also expect that if they boarded passengers at ANC there would be a TSA requirement that all through passengers deplane and clear security, which wouldn't make them happy especially westbound as it would be the middle of the night (and fairly late eastbound). It would also increase ground time significantly and CX A340-300 flights HKG-YYZ-HKG with the ANC stop are already more than 2 hours longer eastbound and more than 3 hours longer westbound than AC A340-500 nonstops.

The only Transpacific carrier that stops for fuel at ANC and also carries passengers (wonder how many?) to/from ANC is CI on their 4 weekly 747-400s TPE-JFK-TPE. Of course they don't have traffic rights on the domestic cabotage sectors ANC-JFK-ANC.

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