CactusOne
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AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:33 am

How come AA doesn't utilize their strong code-sharing agreement that they have with AS to fly these routes like NW does. The SEA market will never seem to have enough flights to Asia or Hawaii. I know AA bought the rights to fly SEA-NRT from CO and used to fly it with an MD11 then the 777-200. A 757-200 would work going to HNL or even OGG... seems logical, or even start new routes, to KIX, HKG, CAN, MNL, PVG, PEK, GUM, ICN, KHH, NGO or even Macau? It just seems AA is going to miss their opportunity to grow like CO & DL...Disgustingly they've pulled out of so many of the routes they used to have to have like SYD, LYS, MRS, HAM, MUC, MXP, ARN, TXL, BHX, GLA... others are beefing up, what's the deal? Lack of pilots or Fuel Cost? Certainly AA could do JFK-DOH, DXB, BLR, HYD... They used to be industry leaders and now they seem like they're permanently taking the wait-and-see approach to everything. Any word if AA is going to truly begin to grow again instead of keep the status pro-quo? They can't continue to keep all their eggs in one basket with Mexico, Central and South America & Caribbean, especially with low cost entrants like JetBlue, Spirit and AirTran... Can anyone shine some light on this subject? Speaking as an Executive Platnium member, it's becoming more and more frustrating to be purchasing an "AA" plane ticket, only to be told the service is being flown by someone else. CO, DL & even US are expanding with their 757's to smaller markets in Europe and using the big boys to Africa and renewed service to Asia n/s out of ATL.
 
Tan Flyr
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:50 am

In a simple term..profitability.

If a route does not make a profit, or if the aircraft can fly another route with GREATER profit potential, then that is what they do.

I do believe that when the new terminal at JFK is complete, you will see AA fly some of the routes they used to from either ORD or JFK. They also have a long list of dormant TWA international authorities that they can fly when they determine a route has profit potential.

Two other items..they need continued profitability to order new aircraft soon (read 787) to do any considerable expansion. Also your comment about latin America...the Caribbean basin, Central America, northern and southern South America are all very profitable. That is why more flights to EZE for example. AA dominates Latin America..like PAN AM did 30-40 years ago.
 
flyby519
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:53 am

I dont think AA currently has enough aircraft to expand to the above destinations. Before they can order new a/c they need to resolve labor contract issues with the pilots/flight attendants
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OB1504
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Mon Jul 30, 2007 8:02 am

There are many reasons for AA's apparent "lack of growth":

Quoting CactusOne (Thread starter):
The SEA market will never seem to have enough flights to Asia or Hawaii. I know AA bought the rights to fly SEA-NRT from CO and used to fly it with an MD11 then the 777-200. A 757-200 would work going to HNL or even OGG... seems logical, or even start new routes, to KIX, HKG, CAN, MNL, PVG, PEK, GUM, ICN, KHH, NGO or even Macau?

They're pretty much maxed out on aircraft for the time being (which is better than having a bunch of unused aircraft sitting in the desert, I suppose). The 737s that they are currently taking delivery of will be used to replace some of the older MD-80s until the 737's successor is launched.

Quoting CactusOne (Thread starter):
Disgustingly they've pulled out of so many of the routes they used to have to have like SYD, LYS, MRS, HAM, MUC, MXP, ARN, TXL, BHX, GLA... others are beefing up, what's the deal? Lack of pilots or Fuel Cost?

If they've pulled out of any routes, it's either because they weren't performing well, or they could better utilize the assets elsewhere: on the routes they're "beefing up". Lack of pilots could be a contributing factor, since they're recalling more and more each year.

Quoting CactusOne (Thread starter):
They used to be industry leaders and now they seem like they're permanently taking the wait-and-see approach to everything.

The wait-and-see approach has helped them. It may not be as effective as it once was, but to this day, they're the only American "legacy" carrier that has never had to declare bankruptcy.

Quoting CactusOne (Thread starter):
They can't continue to keep all their eggs in one basket with Mexico, Central and South America & Caribbean, especially with low cost entrants like JetBlue, Spirit and AirTran...

IMHO, NK is really the only carrier capable of making a serious dent in AA's Latin American network. They've embarked on a massive expansion out of FLL, only 20 miles away from AA's fortress hub at MIA, and they're pushing the Airbus A319 to its limits. Even then, NK is a completely different animal, being a ULCC. NK isn't as interested as AA is in offering First or Business class or in codesharing, which is why AA should be capable of holding its own.

Quoting CactusOne (Thread starter):
Speaking as an Executive Platnium member, it's becoming more and more frustrating to be purchasing an "AA" plane ticket, only to be told the service is being flown by someone else.

Most of AA's oneworld partners (AY, CX, LA, etc) have service levels that are leaps and bounds ahead of AA's. You're getting this service while still earning AAdvantage miles, so you win and AA wins by giving its frequent fliers more routes and destinations.

[Edited 2007-07-30 01:13:55]
 
sevenair
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Mon Jul 30, 2007 8:08 am

They're a business. And business is not just about expanding. It's about making more money out of what you already have. If you need to trim around the edges, then so be it. I must commend AA - they have not been in Chapter 11. They are a responsible business, who do not squander the tax payers money unlike some of the bankrupts airlines. So kudos, as they say over there.
 
moman
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:18 am

This same topic was discussed last week. Two points of speculation;

1) AA is waiting until the TWA flight attendants roll off the recall list to expand (July 2008)

2) AA is holding back until pilot negotiations are in full force, and using the allure of ordering 787s and future 737RS as a carrot to secure a decent contract (we need the money to expand which brings the pilot more money, etc).
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centrair
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:34 am

AA has entered and pulled out of markets before they even matured. ORD-NGO was operated for I think 4 months with good loads in C and Y plus cargo but they pulled out in favor of using the plane to India I believe. At NGO they had access to JL's plentiful domestic routes and other oneworld partners. It lined up good enough to connect ORD-NGO-HKG, ORD-NGO-TPE (CX), ORD-NGO-PUS (JL) and to about 12 destinations in Japan. It did also have the ability to connect to Qantas's Cairns flight but why would anyone fly ORD-NGO-OZ?

The problem for AA is aircraft, staying in the black and getting pilots to agree to fly just a little longer. It seems that AA wants to build up DFW more to Europe and Asia but can't due to the flying rules that the pilots currently work on. This is why AA tacked on ORD for their application for DFW-ORD-PVG (or was it PEK) last year. The extra 1.5 hours or so put the pilots into working more than their contract allows.

I hope they expand and come back to NGO. I don't fly them but it is nice to have options.
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
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na747
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:41 am

Read the previous threads AA Won't Expand? (which is now locked) and AA Won't Expand-Part Two which were posted last week.
Many interesting points mentioned there.
As for your suggestion that AA could serve DOH/DXB, etc. and excercising unused TWA routes, it is true. They could. But AA doesn' t really want an aircraft anywhere in the Middle East with the word "American" splattered on the side of the plane for obvious reasons. However, if there is a place I think AA could fly with out having its security compromised or operating very safely it would be Tel Aviv. TLV is one the safest airports considering it is located in a volatile area.
Dubai is another spot where there is money to be made. Out of JFK? Well, maybe (Emirates already has 2 nonstops and a 1-stop service on the route). Chicago-Dubai could be a very good option. India? Absolutely (besides the current Delhi service already operated).

Other factors, as stated above by Tan FLYR is that if they can find a route that will make MORE money with what they have, they will make that move. That said, because of aircraft availibilty restraints, they are missing out on *many* oportunities still left out there as mentioned in the previous threads.

AA is also waiting to see what happens/what the outcome is with their union contracts coming up for renewal next year. My prediction is that it will get ugly. Also, the ex-TWA Flt. Attdts. issue may also be playing a role in the decision to remain idle.

Pilot shortage? Possibly...they are recalling some.

My hope is that, at the least, AA is aware of what is going on around them and make a move as soon as it is feasibly possible. I don't wish to see AA licking its own wounds over its "lack of growth" later on. They have been sitting idle for a while now.
 
LAXintl
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:46 am

Same exact topic was discussed last week. AA Wont Expand? (by NA747 Jul 23 2007 in Civil Aviation)
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worldtraveler
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:54 am

Quoting TAN FLYR (Reply 1):
They also have a long list of dormant TWA international authorities that they can fly when they determine a route has profit potential.

Dormant authorities are no longer AA's for the taking if someone else has stepped in and begun to operate the route. The US DOT allows routes to remain dormant for a very short period of time before they consider a carrier as no longer interested in serving the route. Also, treaties do change and many countries now have very liberal agreements that allow other carriers to begin service. Given all of DL's expansion in Africa, the Middle East, and Southern Europe - a few areas where TW used to be strong, there aren't a whole lot of markets where AA is going to walk in without having to fight against an incumbent.

Also, AA left a bad taste with the Israeli government because they failed to operate the JFK-TLV route they acquired. I'm betting they will be LY's codeshare partner after DL and LY go their separate ways later this year.

Quoting OB1504 (Reply 3):
IMHO, NK is really the only carrier capable of making a serious dent in AA's Latin American network.

There is no doubt that NK is hurting AA; you are seeing fare sales for the off-peak periods to Latin America that are lower than alot of domestic routes because AA is having to match NK levels. While AA has the loyalty from business passengers and also holds its own during peak periods and to deep South America, NK is becoming more than just an irritant to AA. It is a serious threat.
 
FLYGUY767
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:58 am

Quoting CactusOne (Thread starter):
A 757-200 would work going to HNL or even OGG... seems logical, or even start new routes, to KIX, HKG, CAN, MNL, PVG, PEK, GUM, ICN, KHH, NGO or even Macau?

To start with American Airlines has never considered Seattle as a base. The West Coast base if you will for American Airlines is LAX. In the past we have seen attempt after attempt with the San Jose Focus City but nothing ever seemed to work between American Airlines and the San Jose market. American Airlines is in a very situation with its LAX operation and holds a number of key prizes including its de-facto strength as the number one airline from the Los Angeles market to New York, Miami, and Dallas. All are prime business markets. In addition American Airlines has a large amount of flights to Chicago which is rather commendable as well. American Airlines also has a prized association with Qantas, China Eastern, Japan Air Lines, Mexicana, Cathay Pacific, and LAN all of which have a very distinct market they serve from the Los Angeles market. As can be seen American Airlines does more than well on its LAX-LHR, and LAX-NRT services as well

Routes such as HNL, OGG are extremely low yielding and not a priority for American Airlines. Routes such as GUM, KHH, MFM, MNL, and CAN will probably never happen with American Airlines metal. I cannot see American Airlines re-entering the KIX, TPE, or NGO markets anytime soon. HKG as mentioned above is more than well served in American Airlines One World relationship with Cathay Pacific. ICN and PEK may happen later down the road. American Airlines is best leaving the PVG service from the ORD market from a profit standpoint, and as can be seen they have an intention to servce PEK-ORD within the next few years..

In closing unless American Airlines and Alaska Airlines merge and become one, dont look for American Airlines re-entering the Seattle to Asia market anytime soon..

Quoting CactusOne (Thread starter):
It just seems AA is going to miss their opportunity to grow like CO & DL...Disgustingly they've pulled out of so many of the routes they used to have to have like SYD, LYS, MRS, HAM, MUC, MXP, ARN, TXL, BHX, GLA... others are beefing up, what's the deal?

Those routes are best served with code-share partners British Airways, and Qantas..

Quoting CactusOne (Thread starter):
Certainly AA could do JFK-DOH, DXB, BLR, HYD... They used to be industry leaders and now they seem like they're permanently taking the wait-and-see approach to everything.

None of those routes are going to happen if at all from JFK. JFK is serving as an O/D market for American Airlines with very little connecting feed to support the TATL, Asian, and South American routes from that gateway. If you see DXB it will be via MIA, or DFW. I doubt that AA will ever add BLR, or HYD. You are more likely to see a flight added to BOM before anything else listed above..

Quoting CactusOne (Thread starter):
They can't continue to keep all their eggs in one basket with Mexico, Central and South
America & Caribbean, especially with low cost entrants like JetBlue, Spirit and AirTran...

Those eggs have been in the Latin/South American basket for years and are the shining gem in American Airlines route network. The name recognition of American Airlines in those markets is without a doubt the strongest. True that UA, DL, and CO serve those markets. Yet American Airlines is the leader. When it comes to the highest profit South American markets of SCL, GRU, and EZE American Airlines is the number one in town. They are not afraid of the likes of Jet Blue and Spirit in the low yielding Caribbean markets. Nor are they afraid of Spirit and their recent entry into the South American market. The will match ticket prices when and if need be. For the meantime American Airlines has the name and the leverage in the market.

-JD
Summer Trip 2007: DEN HAAG>DUBAI>LONDON>VERONA>COSTA SMERALDA>CAPRI
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:05 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 9):
Given all of DL's expansion in Africa, the Middle East, and Southern Europe - a few areas where TW used to be strong, there aren't a whole lot of markets where AA is going to walk in without having to fight against an incumbent.

Fortunately, they are still young and developing markets. While I am disappointed that AA is not taking advantage of entering them now, they are young enough that AA can enter them 5 years down the road and still make a solid footing in the market.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 9):

Also, AA left a bad taste with the Israeli government because they failed to operate the JFK-TLV route they acquired. I'm betting they will be LY's codeshare partner after DL and LY go their separate ways later this year

The bad taste isn't because they left, it is because they still owe ex-TWA employees money (pension, IIRC). There are already rumblings that AA/LY will be announcing a code share deal to start with the summer 2008 timetable. They already are AAdvantage partners.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 9):
While AA has the loyalty from business passengers and also holds its own during peak periods and to deep South America, NK is becoming more than just an irritant to AA. It is a serious threat.

The idea that Spirit is a "serious threat" is really stretching it, especially when many of their flights to Latin America are operating on red eye schedules that have absolutely no appeal to business travelers. They are definitely not to be taken lightly, and AA isn't taking it lightly, but until they expand more south and are offering premium services (or at least free baggage), they aren't a "serious threat". Delta needs to be more worried than AA. They have already gotten a great start in San Pedro Sula and Managua, thin markets that Delta has yet to make work, and where Spirit will steal market share more easily from un-established airlines in the market than from AA and CO.
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fxramper
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:38 am

AA Wont Expand? (by NA747 Jul 23 2007 in Civil Aviation)
 
rlorenzo24
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Tue Jul 31, 2007 2:20 am

AA has one of the worst management/labor relations in the industry. Both the pilots and flight attendants unions have or are getting ready to enter negotiations soon and as in the past it will get ugly, no doubt about it. They have several new gates at terminal 9 just sitting there. They can't expand when they don't have the crews to man the flights. They have too many planes parked in the dessert. They're firing flight attendants left and right all the while planes are going full with bare minimum crews. An airline can't expand when it has bad mgmt/labor relations. The recent pocketing of hundreds of millions of dollars by mgmt is a prime example of why they can't expand with this consistent "us vs them" attitude.
 
FLYGUY767
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Tue Jul 31, 2007 2:35 am

Quoting Rlorenzo24 (Reply 13):
AA has one of the worst management/labor relations in the industry.

They are in the company of United Airlines and Northwest Airlines when it comes to management/labor relations..

Quoting Rlorenzo24 (Reply 13):
Both the pilots and flight attendants unions have or are getting ready to enter negotiations soon and as in the past it will get ugly, no doubt about it.

That makes their situation different from Northwest Airlines how?

Quoting Rlorenzo24 (Reply 13):
They have several new gates at terminal 9 just sitting there. They can't expand when they don't have the crews to man the flights.

Regarding the Flight Attendant Crews they have to wait until the window for TWA recall rights have passed..

Quoting Rlorenzo24 (Reply 13):
They're firing flight attendants left and right all the while planes are going full with bare minimum crews.

Regarding firing Flight Attendants, they are being fired with good cause. The Unions will not allow Flight Attendants to be fired without just cause.

Regarding Minimum Crews, have you flown on a United Airlines, US Airways, Northwest Airlines, or Delta Air Lines flight lately?

American Airlines is no different from any other US airline when it comes to onboard staffing, in fact I would argue that their Trans-Con and International flights have a higher ratio than most other US airlines in those markets..

Quoting Rlorenzo24 (Reply 13):
An airline can't expand when it has bad mgmt/labor relations.

Then explain how United Airlines has expanded..

Quoting Rlorenzo24 (Reply 13):
The recent pocketing of hundreds of millions of dollars by mgmt is a prime example of why they can't expand with this consistent "us vs them" attitude.

This is different from United Airlines in what way?

Doing a bit of research would show that American Airlines has indeed expanded and in recent years has added new routes such as ORD-DEL, and ORD-PVG. In addition to that American Airlines has reinforced its Miami hub, and trimmed its O'Hare and DFW routes to a profitable margin. It smartly dropped San Jose and is focusing West Coast growth from its LAX operation. JFK has taken a hit, although at the same time it remains a profitable station with the immense wealth of the 3-class Trans Con, Narita, South America, and Heathrow flights. It would also be wise to point out that American Airlines did not use the crutch of bankruptcy to make it through the post 9-11 US aviation industry. Instead it made decisions that were hard, yet had to be done.

To fault American Airlines for remaining a profitable airline with an extremely solid audience and one of the strongest route networks in the World, all the while being the Worlds largest airline would be sadly misgiven..

-JD
Summer Trip 2007: DEN HAAG>DUBAI>LONDON>VERONA>COSTA SMERALDA>CAPRI
 
aajfksjubklyn
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Tue Jul 31, 2007 2:45 am

I second that AA is holding off and focusing on profit making rather then a glut of European/Foreign routes is because of their labor issues. They recently brought back a large group (apprx. 200) of flight attendents from TWA, the average age is 62...what do you think these flight att. will do?? Retire..without a doubt as many did nearly immediately. I think once you see these time constraints float away, certain things will move..orders for planes, more routes naturally. Dribs and drabs is the order of the day. Make the older planes new inside, give more back..rather then expand. Quite frankly it's a great business plan...but one that requires great patience for sure.
 
AJMIA
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Tue Jul 31, 2007 11:16 am

Quoting AAJFKSJUBKLYN (Reply 15):
They recently brought back a large group (apprx. 200) of flight attendents from TWA, the average age is 62...what do you think these flight att. will do?? Retire..without a doubt as many did nearly immediately.

How many of the 200 FAs took the recall?

How many have since retired?

AJMIA
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moman
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:57 pm

Quoting AJMIA (Reply 16):
How many of the 200 FAs took the recall?

How many have since retired?

103 recalled, 82 accepted. of the 82, a vast majority expected to retire (last stats I heard)
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rwsea
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:58 pm

AA is very conservative in their growth strategy, always have been. Like NW and UA, they prefer to let DL/CO/US duke it out between the US and Europe. That might be a good strategy considering that DL/CO have a lock on JFK, UA and foreign carriers are strong from ORD, and DFW isn't the best European hub.

With respect to Asia, AA has a very poor track record. The only place they've had any real success is NRT. Other recently attempted destinations (NGO, KIX, TPE) have done very poorly. India is probably better suited to AA's network given their strengths. AA does have a decent case for ORD-PEK and I'm pretty sure they'll get it. That said, AA succeeds in China more because of the limited competition rather than name recognition or overall standing in the market.

With respect to considering other destinations in the USA (in your example, SEA-Asia), you're right that AA could be successful if they tried it (more successful than their failed DFW-KIX and ORD-NGO ventures, IMO). However, the legacy carriers these days seem extremely averse to trying any long-haul flights from places other than their hubs. I can understand that from an aircraft utilization and employee-base standpoint, but it's kind of short-sighted. Asian and European carriers are acquiring new aircraft and will beat the legacies in many of these markets.

And of course, AA needs to get their labor issues sorted out.
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:17 pm

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 18):
UA and foreign carriers are strong from ORD,

AA is stronger between O'Hare and Europe than UA. Always has been.
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ckfred
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:35 pm

There are two other issues that have caused AA to hold back on expansion. First, AA is operating at ORD under flight caps imposed by the FAA to reduce delays. If AA wants to add service to an existing route or start service to a new city from ORD, it has drop a flight elsewhere out of ORD .

This situation won't change until the 3rd east-west runway and the 2nd control tower become operational in '08, probably in the second half. My understanding is that the FAA will increase the arrival rate then, but AA probably will wind up with 50 or so additional arrival slots. Obviously that is nothing to sneeze at, but it still limits AA's growth potential at ORD. There probably won't be significant growth until the 4th east-west runway opens, and there is no timetable for that.

Second, AA is returning the ex-TW 757s to their lessors, as the leases expire. Those planes have P&W engines, as well as a host of other differences, and AA is trying to keep the number of fleet types and sub-types to a minimum. The downside is that it will keep the number of available seats very tight, but that allows AA to gain some pricing power and profitability.

The main problem for AA this instant is the contract with the pilots. They want an immediate 30% increase, plus a signing bonus and additional increases over the life of the contract. Considering that the prior leadership at the APA said that the 30% increase wasn't negotiable, that tells me that they want a strike. So, I doubt that AA is going to commit to any new planes beyond the current order for 737s until an agreement is in place. How long that takes will depend on how soon the federal mediator joins negotiations then declares an impasse.
 
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na747
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:30 pm

Quoting Ckfred (Reply 20):
There are two other issues that have caused AA to hold back on expansion

I forgot about the slot issue in ORD. For some reason I thought it only pertained to domestic routes...or didn't it used to be that way?
Good read, Ckfred.
 
tothestars
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:42 pm

Quoting AAJFKSJUBKLYN (Reply 15):
They recently brought back a large group (apprx. 200) of flight attendents from twa, the average age is 62...what do you think these flight att. will do?? Retire..without a doubt as many did nearly immediately.


200 is hardly a large amount when there are still thousands awaiting recall. Those brought back where former TWA and where furloughed as AA flight attendants. And where do you get your facts as far as retirements? As far as I've heard no one has retired yet...they just started flying this month..They could have retired at anytime during the last 4 years on furlough and if they do retire it's thier choice, they earned it. Maybe they are just dedicated proffessionals who just want to fly again.

[Edited 2007-07-31 15:43:49]
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BOAC911
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:48 pm

shrinking? good..their service sucks..
 
NYCAAer
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Tue Jul 31, 2007 11:11 pm

I think one of AA's biggest problems with new routes is that they don't always give them a chance to develop if they don't make a ton of cash right away. I think we served Stuttgart, Germany for 4 months back in 1989-1990. Crazy.

And now I've been hearing in the company rumor mill that management may reneg on its decision not to use 757s on thin routes to Europe out of JFK once the new terminal is completed. We're supposedly going to see a plethora of new destinations from JFK. I'll believe it when I'm actually on the plane en route.

I've also been hearing that ORD-DEL is now suffering due to fuel costs, and may be discontinued. They'd be crazy to give it up- wasn't the US-India Open Skies amended to exclude DEL and BOM for future expansion? Couldn't they hold off and fly it with a 777 until they got a 787-9 a few years later, and give it a chance?
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Tue Jul 31, 2007 11:31 pm

Quoting NYCAAer (Reply 24):
I've also been hearing that ORD-DEL is now suffering due to fuel costs, and may be discontinued.

ORD-DEL is a strong performer and isn't going anywhere.
a.
 
dallasnewark
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:06 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 25):
ORD-DEL is a strong performer and isn't going anywhere

Hey Mark, I heard that it's not doing too well either, they're losing money on ORD-DEL-ORD.
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FLYGUY767
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:13 am

Quoting NYCAAer (Reply 24):
And now I've been hearing in the company rumor mill that management may reneg on its decision not to use 757s on thin routes to Europe out of JFK once the new terminal is completed. We're supposedly going to see a plethora of new destinations from JFK. I'll believe it when I'm actually on the plane en route.

This rumor has becoming more and more loud over recent months. American Airlines is looking at a number of routes from JFK both to Europe and elsewhere. What American Airlines is and will be doing is defending one of its highest yielding markets against Delta Air Lines. Remember that American Airlines is expanding service to London from the JFK market with the advent of the 2x 767-300 flights to STN. Both will be operational by next spring. throw into the fact that Delta Air Lines is rolling 2 class 767-300 to LGW which will be going from 2x to 1x daily, and even when they do start service to Heathrow it will be sub-par as AA offers the 777, and AA offers both P and J class products with the 777 to Heathrow.

What American Airlines is doing is waiting and seeing a policy that has left them financialy fit for decades, they indeed are looking at more routes from JFK starting from April 2008. With the combined chatter of MIA going to 2x to LHR, and additional European routes on tap American Airlines is going to be giving SkyTeam a bit more competition. Delta Air Lines and Continental Airlines are not the only players in town. American Airlines has one of the strongest brand loyalties in the New York metro market. It cannot be ignored, and American Airlines is responding to that with the addition of 2 more flights to London which both will be functional by next Spring.

-JD
Summer Trip 2007: DEN HAAG>DUBAI>LONDON>VERONA>COSTA SMERALDA>CAPRI
 
NYCAAer
Posts: 595
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2004 10:22 pm

RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:20 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 25):
ORD-DEL is a strong performer and isn't going anywhere.

That's what I thought, too, but a colleague of mine just came back from Purser training at Master Base in DFW and they were told ORD-DEL may get the axe. Go figure. Whoever it was from management could be wrong, but why would they give erroneous info to employees? I do remember one instance about 9 or 10 years ago, when someone from DFW told the pursers at a JFK Purser conference that we were going to start a 2nd daily BOS-CDG when it was really going to be a 2nd daily JFK-CDG. Sad when you have managers not knowing what they're talking about.
 
aanyc
Posts: 129
Joined: Wed May 11, 2005 3:51 am

RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:30 am

Quoting NYCAAer (Reply 28):
do remember one instance about 9 or 10 years ago, when someone from DFW told the pursers at a JFK Purser conference that we were going to start a 2nd daily BOS-CDG when it was really going to be a 2nd daily JFK-CDG. Sad when you have managers not knowing what they're talking about.

AA managers not knowing what they are talking about surprises you? European expansion rumors have been spinning around for years and we have yet to see it. The rumors regarding 757's being reconfigured to fly out of JFK to Europe is starting up again, this one has been circulating for a couple of years now. I'll believe it when I see it. Basically we don't have the airplanes to expand. The TWA 757's are being returned to the lessor, so where do we get these planes from? On the ORD-DEL note, why is it other carriers routes from the states to India are profitable and our is not, it just makes me wonder the direction our airline is headed.
 
NYCAAer
Posts: 595
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2004 10:22 pm

RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:32 am

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 27):
Remember that American Airlines is expanding service from the JFK market with the advent of the 2x 767-300 flights to STN.

Call me a skeptic, but I give that route 6 months, in typical AA fashion. I think it's just to compete with Eos and maxjet akin to the discontinued JFK-LGB and JFK-OAK flights to compete with B6.
 
FLYGUY767
Posts: 1441
Joined: Thu May 24, 2007 11:26 pm

RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:42 am

Quoting NYCAAer (Reply 28):
That's what I thought, too, but a colleague of mine just came back from Purser training at Master Base in DFW and they were told ORD-DEL may get the axe.



Quoting Dallasnewark (Reply 26):
I heard that it's not doing too well either, they're losing money on ORD-DEL-ORD



Quoting NYCAAer (Reply 24):
I've also been hearing that ORD-DEL is now suffering due to fuel costs, and may be discontinued.

From what I have heard there are a few options being looked at:

#1
ORD-DEL would instead operate as DFW-ORD-DEL. In essence similar to the way that Delta Air Lines operate is ATL-JFK-BOM service. So in turn the largest AA base of DFW would have connecting feed to the flight, in addition to the ORD base having feed to the flight.

#2
ORD-DEL would be dropped in favor of JFK-DEL, this would go head to head with Continental Airlines who operates a EWR-DEL nonstop flight. This flight would draw the NYC O/D demand to the Indian market as well as receive the connecting traffic from the JFK base.

#3
ORD-DEL dropped entirely and American Airlines operating 2 daily 767-300 flights to India from Brussels. One to Delhi and one to Bombay. This would allow American Airlines to feed from both the JFK and ORD to Brussels flights as well as the O/D in the Euro Capitol market of Brussels to India. At current no airline serves Brussels to Delhi or Bombay. There of course on going chatter of a Brussels to Miami flight as well with the 767-300. Perhaps MAH4546 has more insight into that one..


-JD
Summer Trip 2007: DEN HAAG>DUBAI>LONDON>VERONA>COSTA SMERALDA>CAPRI
 
ckfred
Posts: 4716
Joined: Wed Apr 25, 2001 12:50 pm

RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:02 am

Quoting NA747 (Reply 21):
I forgot about the slot issue in ORD. For some reason I thought it only pertained to domestic routes...or didn't it used to be that way?

Back when ORD had slots that could be bought and sold, international carriers could circumvent the cap by applying for new service to ORD, IIRC.

Now, I'm not sure on the procedures, be it seems to me that if an airline, foreign or domestic, wanted to add new international service to ORD, the FAA would try to slot the arrival and departure.

By the same token, B6 applied for and got approval for new service, on the basis that JFK and LGB were underserved and that B6 would increase competition to the New York and L.A. markets.

So, if AA wanted to add international service, whether to Europe, Asia, or Latin America, it probably could get slots.

As for domstic, AA is stuck on the current service level. If you look at AA's schedule, there are often many more departures out of DFW to a number of destinations. For instance, AA has 5 departures from ORD to LAS, but there are 10 departues out of DFW. For TPA, its 8 departures out of DFW and 3 out of ORD.

Obviously, AA is trying to run its connecting traffic through DFW, but residents of the Metroplex have so many more options than residents of Chicagoland, and that won't change much until ORD gets the 3rd and 4th east-west runways.
 
Humberside
Posts: 3223
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:19 am

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 31):
At current no airline serves Brussels to Delhi or Bombay.

Jet Airways have started, or will shortly start Mumbai-BRU-EWR. Delhi will follow latter. Plus AA's partner SN Brussels is codesharing on these flights
Visit the Air Humberside Website and Forum
 
MAH4546
Posts: 24560
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:49 am

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 31):
ORD-DEL dropped entirely and American Airlines operating 2 daily 767-300 flights to India from Brussels. One to Delhi and one to Bombay. This would allow American Airlines to feed from both the JFK and ORD to Brussels flights as well as the O/D in the Euro Capitol market of Brussels to India. At current no airline serves Brussels to Delhi or Bombay. There of course on going chatter of a Brussels to Miami flight as well with the 767-300. Perhaps MAH4546 has more insight into that one..

About two years ago there was a plan to begin one or two daily Brussels-India flights that would be feed by the JFK and ORD flights, as well as new MIA (763) and BOS (752) flights. With Air India, Continental, and Delta now all in the non-stop game, I don't think it is a viable plan anymore.

Quoting NYCAAer (Reply 28):
That's what I thought, too, but a colleague of mine just came back from Purser training at Master Base in DFW and they were told ORD-DEL may get the axe. Go figure. Whoever it was from management could be wrong, but why would they give erroneous info to employees?

AA could would give erroneous information to scare employees. They don't have great labour relations, and by spreading the word that things can get worse, they could hope it would help improve the situation. The O'Hare-Delhi route was a huge hit out the gate in 2006, and I really doubt that it has turned around to being a weak performer so quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't performing as well, but it could very well be that an AA employee worded the routes performance in a way to make it iseem like it is getting the axe. Anything is possible, but I doubt the route is going anywhere. If it goes away, I bet it's because of labour relations more than anything else. Even if it loses money, it is such an important market to stay in that it's the type of route an airline would keep as a loss-leader.
a.
 
elmothehobo
Posts: 967
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2006 11:10 am

RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Wed Aug 01, 2007 5:56 am

Quoting Humberside (Reply 33):
Plus AA's partner SN Brussels is codesharing on these flights

American's relationship with SN hasn't gone anywhere the past two years. American ought to jump in start cooperating with Jet Airways, if only for the presence to Brussels.

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 31):
This flight would draw the NYC O/D demand to the Indian market as well as receive the connecting traffic from the JFK base.

You could run NYC-DEL/BOM on O/D traffic, connections are just the icing on the cake.

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 31):
ORD-DEL would be dropped in favor of JFK-DEL, this would go head to head with Continental Airlines who operates a EWR-DEL nonstop flight.

Why leave a market where they are the only carrier offering nonstop service ( a huge market at that) only to compete with two other far more entrenched carriers in a larger market?

American will eventually launch NYC-India, though if it came at the expense of Chicago I'd be puzzled.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 24560
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RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Wed Aug 01, 2007 5:59 am

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 35):

American's relationship with SN hasn't gone anywhere the past two years. American ought to jump in start cooperating with Jet Airways, if only for the presence to Brussels.

AA's Indian codeshare partner is Sahara. Jet has partnered with United.

Off topic, but I really would like to see AA/SN's relationship become stronger. I think SN is a perfect fit for oneWorld.
a.
 
elmothehobo
Posts: 967
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2006 11:10 am

RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Wed Aug 01, 2007 12:43 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 36):
AA's Indian codeshare partner is Sahara. Jet has partnered with United.

Did Jet not try to aquire Air Sahara?

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 36):
Off topic, but I really would like to see AA/SN's relationship become stronger. I think SN is a perfect fit for oneWorld.

Agreed, both carriers need each other. SN is the last unaligned national carrier in Europe, and American (and Oneworld) need a (more) centrally located hub in Europe, and stop depending on fringe hubs in BUD, MAD, HEL, LHR, etc... while SN needs a US partner.
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:01 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 34):
AA could would give erroneous information to scare employees. They don't have great labour relations, and by spreading the word that things can get worse, they could hope it would help improve the situation. The O'Hare-Delhi route was a huge hit out the gate in 2006, and I really doubt that it has turned around to being a weak performer so quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't performing as well, but it could very well be that an AA employee worded the routes performance in a way to make it iseem like it is getting the axe. Anything is possible, but I doubt the route is going anywhere. If it goes away, I bet it's because of labour relations more than anything else. Even if it loses money, it is such an important market to stay in that it's the type of route an airline would keep as a loss-leader

...while load factors certainly doesn't lead to profitability, load factors have increased this year from 2006, so that's a good sign.... thumbsup 

Whenever I'm at ORD (which is quite frequent), I always see scores upon scores of people at the DEL departure gate....
"Up the Irons!"
 
Fleet Service
Posts: 473
Joined: Wed Apr 12, 2000 11:58 am

RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Wed Aug 01, 2007 5:52 pm

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 35):
You could run NYC-DEL/BOM on O/D traffic, connections are just the icing on the cake.

JFK sits in the backyard, literally of one of the if not the largest Indian expatriate communities in the US.
Yes, I actually *do* work for an airline,how about you?
 
slvrblt
Posts: 272
Joined: Tue Dec 28, 2004 11:19 pm

RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:21 am

Quoting Ckfred (Reply 20):
The main problem for AA this instant is the contract with the pilots. They want an immediate 30% increase, plus a signing bonus and additional increases over the life of the contract. Considering that the prior leadership at the APA said that the 30% increase wasn't negotiable, that tells me that they want a strike.

And, if they do, it will be an immediate entrance into bankruptcy. As an employee, a big part of me woud really be sad to see that - but another part of me thinks it is inevitable and may not be a bad thing overall. That asinine game the pilots played with the China route out of DFW was really just too much. The pilot ranks will be the ones that have the most to lose, and so they should. So onward, brave guys, follow your union masters in glory. You can fly planes, but god forbid you should use your own logical thought processes.

Go and bask in the ashes of Eastern Airlines. Those unions certainly showed everyone who the boss was.

Sigh. Sometimes union stupidity and intransigence knows no bounds.
..everything works out in the end.
 
boeing743
Posts: 338
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:16 am

RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:30 am

I also wonder why STL not growing on AA. I heard that STL is well profitablity than ORD and DFW. But STL not even expand the routes and many of regional operation out of STL tham mainlines. STL has empty terminal D and why cant AA expand the flights or routes and using terminal D. Why can't AA reduce the congested at either ORD or DFW by using STL for some of routes that currently use either ORD or DFW??
 
aanyc
Posts: 129
Joined: Wed May 11, 2005 3:51 am

RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:40 am

Quoting SLVRBLT (Reply 40):
Sigh. Sometimes union stupidity and intransigence knows no bounds.

Why is it that the unions are always to blame. All unions on the property attempted to work with the management of AA. Remember all those pay and benefit concessions 4 years ago. Collectively we have saved AA almost $7 billion dollars in the last 4 years while Arpey and his team so graciously rewarded themselves with close to $300 million in bonuses the last two years. This is a huge issue with the majority of AA employees. I have very little if any respect for the pilot work group as a whole, however they are just as fed up as the rest of us with the way this company is being run.
 
slvrblt
Posts: 272
Joined: Tue Dec 28, 2004 11:19 pm

RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Thu Aug 02, 2007 2:05 am

Quoting Aanyc (Reply 42):
Why is it that the unions are always to blame. All unions on the property attempted to work with the management of AA. Remember all those pay and benefit concessions 4 years ago. Collectively we have saved AA almost $7 billion dollars in the last 4 years while Arpey and his team so graciously rewarded themselves with close to $300 million in bonuses the last two years. This is a huge issue with the majority of AA employees. I have very little if any respect for the pilot work group as a whole, however they are just as fed up as the rest of us with the way this company is being run.

You are, of course entitled to your point of view. Mine is that unions need to join the 21st century, read about global economies and stop using the same methods they did at the time of the industrial revolution. Stilfing a companie's growth and doing everything it can to financially cause trouble is counter productive. Do you think pilots need a 30% raise?

I'd love one, but one plus one always makes two. If I make a whole bunch of money on the stock market today but am still paying off my losses from 10yrs ago, what i made today doesn't get me out of debt, right?

I agree management can do some things better, but you people that harp on these bonuses need to understand this is stock. The stock price went up - what do you not comprehend about that???? We lower rank and file non-management got stock too - just less of it. If management does a good job overall I don't begrudge them that - no, they are sure not perfect but they've kept us going pretty good so far
..everything works out in the end.
 
aanyc
Posts: 129
Joined: Wed May 11, 2005 3:51 am

RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Thu Aug 02, 2007 2:20 am

Quoting SLVRBLT (Reply 43):
I agree management can do some things better, but you people that harp on these bonuses need to understand this is stock. The stock price went up - what do you not comprehend about that???? We lower rank and file non-management got stock too - just less of it. If management does a good job overall I don't begrudge them that - no, they are sure not perfect but they've kept us going pretty good so far

I guess some people are still drinking the kool-aid. Upper management does have every right to earn more money than we do, that is not the issue. There is a major imbalance with executive compensation in this country. While I can't speak for other companies, I see what happens at AA. What happened to Mr. Arpey's promise of shared sacrifice? Did any of the front-line managers who have an impact on this companies day to day operation receive any bonus? no they did not. One of the issues is that any reward program we have is based on profit (profit sharing) or the AIP, which we will never meet the criteria for a payout. Their bonuses should be payed out based on the same criteria our is or vice versa. I just get a kick how everyone continues to blame the unions for the airlines problems, that couldn't be any farther from the truth. Some of the things AA was doing to flight crews at the end of June was ridiculous. At your own station in MIA as well as LGA, and DFW, crews had not hotel rooms and had to sleep in our operations area. Then American wanted them to continue on with their trip the next day. Another one of my favorites is when people know that Arpey or one of his gang is flying. That plane is cleaner than it has been in years, it looks nothing like what our customers see. You try to tell him this or others at his level and they don't care. Maybe they need to show that they truly care about this airline and the success of this airline. At that point they will deserve their bonuses.
 
slvrblt
Posts: 272
Joined: Tue Dec 28, 2004 11:19 pm

RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:10 am

Quoting Aanyc (Reply 44):
I guess some people are still drinking the kool-aid.

Again, you are entitled to your point of view, and, I guess, your particular flavor of kool-aid

Quoting Aanyc (Reply 44):
There is a major imbalance with executive compensation in this country.

Yes, but we're not talking about them, we're talking about AA. Check it out my friend - our officers aren't on the high end.
If you think the company officers are so bad, explain to me why they fought to take the no-bankruptcy route? We were damn close to it, they could have just said 'what the heck, we'll start over too. Even DL, which is a company I admit I do admire, had to do that

Quoting Aanyc (Reply 44):
I just get a kick how everyone continues to blame the unions for the airlines problems, that couldn't be any farther from the truth.

Really? Who stifled the China route out of DFW- to 'make a point?' Who staged the illegal sickout a few years ago? Where is Eastern Airlines today? NWA mechanics? Listen to the nightly business news, it's very interesting to see how careful the UAW is being with their current negotiations with the auto companies. Seems their leadership is looking to their members AND company's futures

C'mon, you need to wake up. The unions' day has come and gone, at least as far as their current moribund tactics are concerned. There is a place for the unions, but they need to join the modern era.
..everything works out in the end.
 
aanyc
Posts: 129
Joined: Wed May 11, 2005 3:51 am

RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:29 am

Quoting SLVRBLT (Reply 45):
If you think the company officers are so bad, explain to me why they fought to take the no-bankruptcy route? We were damn close to it, they could have just said 'what the heck, we'll start over too. Even DL, which is a company I admit I do admire, had to do that

I

Quoting SLVRBLT (Reply 45):
Really? Who stifled the China route out of DFW- to 'make a point?' Who staged the illegal sickout a few years ago?

I guess you are right, AA's problems are a direct result of it's rank and file employees and it's unions. I guess that is why we have not expanded internationally as other airlines have. While other carriers have contracted out their commuter routes to the lowest bidder, AA continues using Eagle. From what I hear at a loss (that could be a rumor). I just think it is high time AA realizes that one of the biggest reasons we stayed out of bankruptcy is due to employee concessions in '03. At least when Crandall was around you knew where he stood. Arpey on the other hand made promises of shared sacrifice and we have yet to see it.
 
rlorenzo24
Posts: 43
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 7:01 am

RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:50 am

Quoting SLVRBLT (Reply 45):

Spoken like a true republican. As far as "we're" concerned unions are not going anywhere soon. May they remain at their posts forever and ever. Poor managers, criticized for thinking that 800 million dollars was ALL THEIRS. Define the significance of "shared sacrifice".
 
FLYGUY767
Posts: 1441
Joined: Thu May 24, 2007 11:26 pm

RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Thu Aug 02, 2007 6:14 am

Quoting Rlorenzo24 (Reply 47):
Spoken like a true republican. As far as "we're" concerned unions are not going anywhere soon. May they remain at their posts forever and ever. Poor managers, criticized for thinking that 800 million dollars was ALL THEIRS. Define the significance of "shared sacrifice".



Quoting Aanyc (Reply 46):
AA's problems are a direct result of it's rank and file employees and it's unions. I guess that is why we have not expanded internationally as other airlines have. While other carriers have contracted out their commuter routes to the lowest bidder, AA continues using Eagle.

Somehow this thread has strayed away from the topic and turned into an American Airlines employees bashing management thread..



-JD
Summer Trip 2007: DEN HAAG>DUBAI>LONDON>VERONA>COSTA SMERALDA>CAPRI
 
aanyc
Posts: 129
Joined: Wed May 11, 2005 3:51 am

RE: AA Shrinking Not Growing?

Thu Aug 02, 2007 6:24 am

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 48):
Somehow this thread has strayed away from the topic and turned into an American Airlines employees bashing management thread..

Maybe a little but not really. AA is not growing or at least growing in the right direction due to decisions by managment. AA can't grow without proper staffing or for that matter new aircraft. We have over 2,000 flight attendants currently on our recall list. Yet management refuses to recall but a few. Whether it is true or not we will not order new aircraft until contracts are settled. While other carriers have found it profitable to expend into Europe we haven't seen anything in that directions. Other airlines have spun off their regional carriers and put those commuter routes out for bid. AA is holding on to Eagle. Who know what the reasons are for all of this. I am hoping that someone at AA sees a bigger picture that I am not. As cynical as this may sound I highly doubt it. It is looking like Carty all over again. With Canadian Airlines, selling Sabre, and the famous more room throughout coach.